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  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
Showing 1 - 36 of 36 Journals sorted alphabetically
Acta Meteorologica Sinica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 45)
Advances in Climate Change Research     Open Access   (Followers: 49)
Advances in Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 27)
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography     Open Access   (Followers: 11)
Aeolian Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20)
American Journal of Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 36)
Atmósfera     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Atmosphere     Open Access   (Followers: 33)
Atmosphere-Ocean     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 16)
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 13)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)     Open Access   (Followers: 43)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions (ACPD)     Open Access   (Followers: 15)
Atmospheric Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 72)
Atmospheric Environment : X     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Atmospheric Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 73)
Atmospheric Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 40)
Boundary-Layer Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32)
Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society     Open Access   (Followers: 63)
Carbon Balance and Management     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Ciencia, Ambiente y Clima     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
Climate and Energy     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 6)
Climate Change Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44)
Climate Change Responses     Open Access   (Followers: 23)
Climate Dynamics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 45)
Climate Law     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Climate of the Past (CP)     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Climate of the Past Discussions (CPD)     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Climate Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 51)
Climate Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Climate Resilience and Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 21)
Climate Risk Management     Open Access   (Followers: 10)
Climate Services     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Climatic Change     Open Access   (Followers: 69)
Current Climate Change Reports     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17)
Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
Earth Perspectives - Transdisciplinarity Enabled     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Economics of Disasters and Climate Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Energy & Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24)
Environmental and Climate Technologies     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Environmental Dynamics and Global Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 21)
Frontiers in Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
GeoHazards     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Global Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 20)
International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 25)
International Journal of Biometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29)
International Journal of Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 20)
International Journal of Image and Data Fusion     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Agricultural Meteorology     Open Access  
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 42)
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33)
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 133)
Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23)
Journal of Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 56)
Journal of Climate Change and Health     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Climatology     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 39)
Journal of Hydrometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Meteorological Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Meteorology and Climate Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 21)
Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 30)
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 83)
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan     Partially Free   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Weather Modification     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Mediterranean Marine Science     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Meteorologica     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Meteorological Applications     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Meteorological Monographs     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Meteorologische Zeitschrift     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29)
Mètode Science Studies Journal : Annual Review     Open Access  
Michigan Journal of Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Monthly Weather Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 30)
Nature Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 145)
Nature Reports Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 40)
Nīvār     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Open Atmospheric Science Journal     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Open Journal of Modern Hydrology     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Revista Iberoamericana de Bioeconomía y Cambio Climático     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Space Weather     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 27)
Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Tellus A     Open Access   (Followers: 21)
Tellus B     Open Access   (Followers: 20)
The Cryosphere (TC)     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32)
Theoretical and Applied Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Urban Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Weather     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20)
Weather and Climate Dynamics     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Weather and Climate Extremes     Open Access   (Followers: 18)
Weather and Forecasting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 43)
Weatherwise     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
气候与环境研究     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)

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Journal Cover
Climatic Change
Journal Prestige (SJR): 2.035
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
Number of Followers: 69  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Print) 0165-0009 - ISSN (Online) 1573-1480
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2469 journals]
  • Exploring the landscape of seasonal forecast provision by Global Producing

    • Abstract: Abstract Despite the growing demand for seasonal climate forecasts, there is limited understanding of the landscape of organisations providing this critically important climate information. This study attempts to fill this gap by presenting results from an in-depth dialogue with the organisations entrusted with the provision of seasonal forecasts by the World Meteorological Organisation, known as the Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts (GPCs-LRF). The results provide an overview and detailed description of the organisational setup, mandate, target audience of GPCs-LRF and their interactions with other centres. Looking beyond the GPCs-LRF to other centres providing seasonal forecasts, some of which have been rapidly taking prominent places in this landscape, revealed a heterogeneous and still maturing community of practice, with an increasing number of players and emerging efforts to produce multi-model ensemble forecasts. The dialogues pointed at the need to not only improve climate models and produce more skilful climate forecasts, but also to improve the transformation of the forecasts into useful and usable products. Finally, using the lenses of credibility, salience and legitimacy, we explore ways to bridge the fragmentation of the information offered across the organisations considered and the people involved in the delivery and use of seasonal forecasts. The paper concludes by suggesting ways to address the boundary crossing between science, policy and society in the context of seasonal climate prediction.
      PubDate: 2022-05-13
  • Influences of atmospheric blocking on North American summer heatwaves in a
           changing climate: a comparison of two Canadian Earth system model large

    • Abstract: Abstract As summer heatwaves have severe adverse impacts on human society and ecosystems, there is need to better understand their meteorological drivers and future projections under climate change. This study investigates the linkage between atmospheric blocking and summer (June–August) heatwaves over North America using two reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim and NCEP-DOE-R2) and two large-ensembles of Canadian Earth System Models (CanESM2 and CanESM5) for the 1981–2010 baseline period as well as projected changes under high-emission scenarios out to 2071–2100. Compared to NCEP-DOE-R2, both ensembles underestimate summer blocking frequency in the north Pacific, Alaska, and western Canada (by − 37%), while CanESM2 ensemble also underestimates blocking frequency in central and eastern Canada (by − 36%). CanESM5 generally shows better performance than CanESM2 in its reproduction of blocking frequency over central and eastern Canada, which is consistent with its overall improvements in simulating large-scale climate patterns. The two ensembles, however, agree with the reanalyses in their blocking-heatwave linkages. Above-normal heatwave frequency occurs in the blocking core and its surroundings due to positive heat flux anomalies, while below-normal frequency occurs at remote locations on the eastern and/or southern flanks of the blocking core due to cold air temperature advection anomalies. Future projections in central Canada differ between the models, largely due to the significant under-representation of blocking frequency by CanESM2. However, the two ensembles generally project similar behavior between the baseline and future period for spatial distributions of blocking-heatwave linkages, indicating blocking will continue to play an important role in the development of summer heatwaves in the future.
      PubDate: 2022-05-05
  • Alignment of values and political orientations amplifies climate change
           attitudes and behaviors

    • Abstract: Abstract Anthropogenic climate change presents an immediate threat, necessitating a rapid shift in climate change relevant behaviors and public policies. A robust literature has identified a number of individual-level determinants of climate change attitudes and behaviors. In particular, political orientations and self-transcendent values are amongst the most consistent and substantive predictors. But, political orientations and individual values do not operate in isolation of each other, and rather are deeply related constructs. Accordingly, this analysis focuses on identifying the direct and interactive effects of political orientations and human values on climate change attitudes and behaviors. Adopting cross-national data from 16 Western European states (2016 ESS), we find that when in alignment, the effect of human values on climate change concern and policy support is amplified by political orientations. The moderating effect of political orientations is most substantive for self-transcendence (positive) and conservation (negative) values.
      PubDate: 2022-05-04
  • Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate

    • Abstract: Abstract Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solutions from integrated modeling, yet little is known about the underlying modeling of the supply of biomass as a feedstock for energy use in these modeling frameworks. We undertake a novel diagnostic analysis with ten global models to elucidate, compare, and assess how biomass is supplied within the models used to inform long-run climate management. With experiments that isolate and reveal biomass supply modeling behavior and characteristics (costs, emissions, land use, market effects), we learn about biomass supply tendencies and differences. The insights provide a new level of modeling transparency and understanding of estimated global biomass supplies that informs evaluation of the potential for bioenergy in managing the climate and interpretation of integrated modeling. For each model, we characterize the potential distributions of global biomass supply across regions and feedstock types for increasing levels of quantity supplied, as well as some of the potential societal externalities of supplying biomass. We also evaluate the biomass supply implications of managing these externalities. Finally, we interpret biomass market results from integrated modeling in terms of our new understanding of biomass supply. Overall, we find little consensus between models on where biomass could be cost-effectively produced and the implications. We also reveal model specific biomass supply narratives, with results providing new insights into integrated modeling bioenergy outcomes and differences. The analysis finds that many integrated models are considering and managing emissions and land use externalities of supplying biomass and estimating that environmental and societal trade-offs in the form of land emissions, land conversion, and higher agricultural prices are cost-effective, and to some degree a reality of using biomass, to address climate change.
      PubDate: 2022-05-03
  • Integrating attribution with adaptation for unprecedented future heatwaves

    • Abstract: Abstract Citizens in many countries are now experiencing record-smashing heatwaves that were intensified due to anthropogenic climate change. Whether today’s most impactful heatwaves could have occurred in a pre-industrial climate, traditionally a central focus of attribution research, is fast becoming an obsolete question. The next frontier for attribution science is to inform adaptation decision-making in the face of unprecedented future heat.
      PubDate: 2022-05-02
  • Paris Agreement requires substantial, broad, and sustained policy efforts
           beyond COVID-19 public stimulus packages

    • Abstract: Abstract It has been claimed that COVID-19 public stimulus packages could be sufficient to meet the short-term energy investment needs to leverage a shift toward a pathway consistent with the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement. Here, we provide complementary perspectives to reiterate that substantial, broad, and sustained policy efforts beyond stimulus packages will be needed for achieving the Paris Agreement long-term targets. Low-carbon investments will need to scale up and persist over the next several decades following short-term stimulus packages. The required total energy investments in the real world can be larger than the currently available estimates from integrated assessment models (IAMs). Existing databases from IAMs are not sufficient for analyzing the effect of public spending on emission reduction. To inform what role COVID-19 stimulus packages and public investments may play for reaching the Paris Agreement targets, explicit modelling of such policies is required.
      PubDate: 2022-05-02
  • Projected climate change and its impacts on glaciers and water resources
           in the headwaters of the Tarim River, NW China/Kyrgyzstan

    • Abstract: Abstract Glacierised river catchments are highly sensitive to climate change, while large populations may depend on their water resources. The irrigation agriculture and the communities along the Tarim River, NW China, strongly depend on the discharge from the glacierised catchments surrounding the Taklamakan Desert. While recent increasing discharge has been beneficial for the agricultural sector, future runoff under climate change is uncertain. We assess three climate change scenarios by forcing two glacio-hydrological models with output of eight general circulation models. The models have different glaciological modelling approaches but were both calibrated to discharge and glacier mass balance observations. Projected changes in climate, glacier cover and river discharge are examined over the twenty-first century and generally point to warmer and wetter conditions. The model ensemble projects median temperature and precipitation increases of + 1.9–5.3 °C and + 9–24%, respectively, until the end of the century compared to the 1971–2000 reference period. Glacier area is projected to shrink by 15–73% (model medians, range over scenarios), depending on the catchment. River discharge is projected to first increase by about 20% in the Aksu River catchments with subsequent decreases of up to 20%. In contrast, discharge in the drier Hotan and Yarkant catchments is projected to increase by 15–60% towards the end of the century. The large uncertainties mainly relate to the climate model ensemble and the limited observations to constrain the glacio-hydrological models. Sustainable water resource management will be key to avert the risks associated with the projected changes and their uncertainties.
      PubDate: 2022-04-18
  • Correction to: Assessing the impacts of climate change on climatic
           extremes in the Congo River Basin

    • PubDate: 2022-04-14
  • Top-down or bottom-up' Norwegian climate mitigation policy as a
           contested hybrid of policy approaches

    • Abstract: Abstract It is widely accepted that the Paris Agreement implies a shift in global climate mitigation policy from a top-down approach focused on global distribution of emission cuts and international cost-effectiveness to a bottom-up approach based on national efforts. Less is known about how this shift at the global level trickles down and manifests in national climate mitigation policy. Norway is in this respect an interesting example, since it has long been portrayed as an important driver of an international top-down approach. In this paper, we demonstrate that Norwegian policy cannot be characterised as a ‘pure’ top-down regime; policy instruments and measures directed at specific technology investments and deployment to complement cost-effective (international) policy instruments have been an explicit government ambition for a long time. Second, by using the case of biofuels, we analyse how the two approaches have been combined in practice over the past decade. Using the notion of ‘hybrid management’, we demonstrate that the top-down approach has left a lasting imprint on Norwegian mitigation policy, but also that this approach has increasingly been challenged by bottom-up thinking, leaving Norwegian climate mitigation policy as a contested hybrid of policy approaches. We conclude that inadequate institutional arrangements for productively managing the tensions between the two approaches have hampered progress in Norwegian policy in curbing domestic emissions. We expect that Norwegian climate mitigation will become increasingly hybridised in the coming decades, and suggest that cultivating hybridisation can be a productive approach for policy progress.
      PubDate: 2022-04-13
  • A two-step carbon pricing scheme enabling a net-zero and net-negative CO
           $$_2$$ 2 -emissions world

    • Abstract: Abstract This contribution introduces a novel carbon pricing system and illustrates its benefits. The system is based on two related but distinct ideas. First, we group the global pools of carbon into three aggregate pools, and we tax or credit human-caused carbon fluxes across the boundaries of the pools. Second, we base the tax or credit solely on physical movements of carbon between pools; hence, the system uses a physical baseline instead of a behavioral baseline based on the hypothetical emissions levels that would have arisen absent the carbon price. The proposed system goes beyond the limitations of current carbon pricing schemes for a number of reasons: it is designed to capture all positive and negative emissions based purely on their climate impact, allowing a broader scope and more appropriate incentives than current systems; it avoids creating bad incentives, particularly those caused by additionality requirements found in carbon offset systems; it captures the complexity of carbon movements through human and natural systems; it reduces measurement errors; and it provides transparent and easily observed price signals. Though this manuscript is conceptual in nature and refrains from discussing the technicalities related to the implementation of the proposed carbon pricing system, we trust that it may contribute to the development of policies enabling a net-zero and net-negative CO \(_{2}\) -emissions world.
      PubDate: 2022-03-31
  • Phenotypic responses in fish behaviour narrow as climate ramps up

    • Abstract: Abstract Natural selection alters the distribution of phenotypes as animals adjust their behaviour and physiology to environmental change. We have little understanding of the magnitude and direction of environmental filtering of phenotypes, and therefore how species might adapt to future climate, as trait selection under future conditions is challenging to study. Here, we test whether climate stressors drive shifts in the frequency distribution of behavioural and physiological phenotypic traits (17 fish species) at natural analogues of climate change (CO2 vents and warming hotspots) and controlled laboratory analogues (mesocosms and aquaria). We discovered that fish from natural populations (4 out of 6 species) narrowed their phenotypic distribution towards behaviourally bolder individuals as oceans acidify, representing loss of shyer phenotypes. In contrast, ocean warming drove both a loss (2/11 species) and gain (2/11 species) of bolder phenotypes in natural and laboratory conditions. The phenotypic variance within populations was reduced at CO2 vents and warming hotspots compared to control conditions, but this pattern was absent from laboratory systems. Fishes that experienced bolder behaviour generally showed increased densities in the wild. Yet, phenotypic alterations did not affect body condition, as all 17 species generally maintained their physiological homeostasis (measured across 5 different traits). Boldness is a highly heritable trait that is related to both loss (increased mortality risk) and gain (increased growth, reproduction) of fitness. Hence, climate conditions that mediate the relative occurrence of shy and bold phenotypes may reshape the strength of species interactions and consequently alter fish population and community dynamics in a future ocean.
      PubDate: 2022-03-31
  • Evaluation of flexibility in adaptation projects for climate change

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate change adaptation inherently entails investment decision-making under the high levels of uncertainty. To address this issue, a single fixed large investment can be divided into two or more sequential investments. This reduces the initial investment cost and adds flexibility about the size and timing of subsequent investment decisions. This flexibility enables future investment decisions to be made when further information about the magnitude of climate change becomes available. This paper presents a real option analysis framework to evaluate adaptations including flexibility to reduce both the risk and uncertainty of climate change, against increasing coastal flooding due to sea-level rise as an example. The paper considers (i) how to design the sequence of adaptation options under growing risk of sea-level rise, and (ii) how to make the efficient use of flexibility included in adaptations for addressing uncertainty. A set of flexibilities (i.e. wait or future growth) are incorporated into single-stage investments (i.e. raising coastal defence from 2.5 mAOD to 3.5mAOD or 4.0 mAOD) in stages so that multiple-stage adaptations with different heights are created. The proposed method compares these sequentially growing adaptations in economic terms, including optimisation, providing additional information on the efficiency of flexible adaptation strategies given the uncertainty of climate change. The results from the evaluation enable decision-makers to identify long-lasting robust adaptation against the uncertainty of climate change.
      PubDate: 2022-03-22
  • Relationships between climate change perceptions and climate adaptation
           actions: policy support, information seeking, and behaviour

    • Abstract: Abstract People are increasingly exposed to climate-related hazards, including floods, droughts, and vector-borne diseases. A broad repertoire of adaptation actions is needed to adapt to these various hazards. It is therefore important to identify general psychological antecedents that motivate people to engage in many different adaptation actions, in response to different hazards, and in different contexts. We examined if people’s climate change perceptions act as such general antecedents. Questionnaire studies in the Netherlands (n = 3,546) and the UK (n = 803) revealed that the more people perceive climate change as real, human-caused, and having negative consequences, the more likely they are to support adaptation policy and to seek information about local climate impacts and ways to adapt. These relationships were stronger and more consistent when the information and policies were introduced as measures to adapt to risks of climate change specifically. However, the three types of climate change perceptions were inconsistently associated with intentions to implement adaptation behaviours (e.g. installing a green roof). This suggests that climate change perceptions can be an important gateway for adaptation actions, especially policy support and information seeking, but that it may be necessary to address additional barriers in order to fully harness the potential of climate change perceptions to promote widespread adaptation behaviour.
      PubDate: 2022-03-21
  • Co-developing the IPCC frequently asked questions as an effective science
           communication tool

    • Abstract: Abstract In its Sixth Assessment Report Cycle (AR6), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) aims to strengthen the communication of its products. As the only mandatory part of IPCC reports specifically targeting a lay audience, the Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) provide an opportunity for broader communication of key IPCC topics. AR6 has released three Special Reports that include FAQs, varying in number and structure, as well as the approach taken to develop them. Using these Special Report FAQs, in this essay, we take stock of current efforts to co-develop IPCC FAQs and provide recommendations to strengthen the impact of these highly useful yet currently under-utilised resources. Building on evidence from a user survey, text analysis and social media statistics, we find that bringing together IPCC authors and communication specialists to jointly develop the text and graphics increases the accessibility and usefulness of the FAQs. Efforts made for informative visuals additionally increase their impact on social media. To maximise the potential and impact of the IPCC FAQs, we recommend involving communication experts from the beginning of the drafting process to share responsibility, which requires sufficient resources to be allocated to the FAQs. We also suggest developing common FAQ guidelines across Working Groups so future assessment reports can ensure all FAQs are an effective and useful tool for IPCC communication. We also hope that other scientific institutions and projects that wish to summarise scientific content for diverse audiences can benefit from our lessons learned.
      PubDate: 2022-03-14
  • Emissions from fossil fuels produced on US federal lands and waters
           present opportunities for climate mitigation

    • Abstract: Abstract Between 2005 and 2019, a quarter of US fossil fuel production came from federal lands and waters. We estimate that the extraction, transportation and combustion of these fuels resulted in emissions equivalent to roughly 1.4 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. To better understand their future role in the US emissions profile, we use publicly available data and machine learning to model coal, oil and natural gas production on federal lands and waters to 2030, and calculate associated life cycle climate emissions. We estimate that total emissions from fossil fuels produced on federal lands and waters decline 6% below 2019 levels by 2030; and note that absent additional policy, further reductions may be challenging as some of the cheapest fossil fuels occur on federally owned lands and many are effectively subsidized.
      PubDate: 2022-03-14
  • Modelling the future: climate change research in Russia during the late
           Cold War and beyond, 1970s–2000

    • Abstract: Abstract Climate models are what governments, experts and societies base their decisions on future climate action on. To show how different models were used to explain climatic changes and to project future climates before the emergence of a global consensus on the validity of general circulation models, this article focuses on the attempt of Soviet climatologists and their government to push for their climate model to be acknowledged by the international climate science community. It argues that Soviet climate sciences as well as their interpretations of the climate of the twenty-first century were products of the Cold War, and that the systematic lack of access to high-speed computers forced Soviet climatologists to use simpler climate reconstructions as analogues, with far-reaching consequences for climate sciences in post-Soviet Russia. By juxtaposing the history of Soviet climate modelling with the early history of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, which rejected the Soviet model, the article sheds light on the relationship of science and politics. The findings are based on archival and print material as well as on interviews.
      PubDate: 2022-03-09
  • Revitalising embodied community knowledges as leverage for climate change

    • Abstract: Abstract Human survival is threatened by climate breakdown and ecological collapse. This levies huge responsibility on society to address how present modes of living have created these problems. Citizens need to learn about the consequences that have been unleashed and find ways to live more sustainably. Yet, the scale of these crises and lack of wisdom to act can be overwhelming, so how will they become more informed and motivated to act' This paper proposes that cultivating communities of practice (Wenger) around low carbon citizenship can help generate discrete engagement strategies that rouse public attention towards changing attitudes and behaviours. To be effective, these engagements need to be relatable, values-oriented, and framed towards the priorities, knowledges, capacities, and lived experiences of the group who each share a passion for a practice and learn collectively how to do it better. Such an approach is explored in the case study, Grow Your Own Community, that sought to engage marginalised communities with decarbonisation activities through the strategic repositioning of their embodied community knowledges (ECK). This community of practice helped to motivate and mobilise local participation by integrating carbon literacy with the situated, practical capacities that already lay within the community. Key findings reveal that revitalising a community’s existing body of knowledge to engage people with climate change knowledge creates the conditions for generating community-led mitigative action.
      PubDate: 2022-03-03
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03327-w
  • Soil moisture and expectations regarding future climate: evidence from
           panel data

    • Abstract: Abstract The literature on belief regarding climate is extensive, with results showing that both personal characteristics and personal experience with the effects of climate change strongly influence future expectations. The vast majority of studies rely on cross-sectional data, making it difficult to ascertain the durability of expectations regarding future climate or the effect of additional environmental cues on beliefs. A few panel studies of which we are aware exploit extreme weather events to find evidence of “confirmation bias”, in which additional environmental signalling reinforces existing beliefs. In contrast, we evaluate how normal fluctuations in soil moisture causally impact expectations of future drought using a panel of New Zealand farmers. We find that environmental cues such as soil moisture scarcely affect expectations of respondents who already expected future drought to increase but that soil moisture strongly influences respondents who did not. In particular, drier soils are associated with higher expectations of future drought among these former sceptics, whether they previously believed that future drought would decrease or simply would not change. Thus, as New Zealand moves toward IPCC forecasts of more frequent and more severe drought, farmers, foresters, and growers will increasingly agree with the scientific consensus, raising the likelihood of both farm-level and public action.
      PubDate: 2022-03-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03317-y
  • Assessing the impacts of climate change on climatic extremes in the Congo
           River Basin

    • Abstract: Abstract The Congo River Basin, located in central Africa, is the second-largest river basin in the world, after the Amazon. It has a drainage area of approximately 3.7 M km2 and is home to 75 million people. A significant part of the population is exposed to recurrent floods and droughts, and climate change is likely to worsen these events. Climate change studies of the Congo River basin have so far focused on annual and seasonal precipitation, but little attention was paid to extreme climatic events. This study aims to assess future changes in rainfall-induced flash floods and drought regimes in the Congo basin from the present day to 2100, using four selected extreme climatic indices as proxies to these two natural disasters. The indices are the total annual precipitation (PCPTOT), the number of days where rainfall is above 20 mm (PCP20), the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The indices were calculated with the statistically downscaled output of eleven Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-AFRICA) under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP 8.5 (high emissions scenario) and RCP 4.5 (moderate emissions scenario). Precipitation and temperature simulated by the RCMs were statistically downscaled using quantile mapping, while wind speed, solar radiation, and relative humidity were projected using K-nearest neighbor downscaling. The evolution of the indices was then assessed between the reference period (1976–2005) and three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100). Multimodel average results suggest that (i) independently of the scenario and period, PCPTOT and SPI will increase in the north, east, and western extremities of the basin and decrease in the basin’s center. (ii) The maximum increase (+ 24%) and decrease (− 6%) in PCPTOT were both projected under RCP 8.5 in the 2071–2100 period. (iii) PCP20 will increase independently of the period and scenario. Under RCP 8.5, in the 2071–2100 period, PCP20 will increase by 94% on average over the whole watershed. (iv) The SPEI results suggest that in all periods and scenarios, the rise in evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures will offset annual precipitation increases in the north, east, and western extremities of the basin. Increased evaporation will exacerbate the decrease in annual precipitation in the center, leading to increased drought frequency in the entire basin.
      PubDate: 2022-02-28
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03326-x
  • Multiscale evaluation of CMIP5 models using wavelet-based descriptive and
           diagnostic techniques

    • Abstract: Abstract Time–frequency localization of model-data discrepancies may provide useful information for climate models inter-comparison, and especially for the goals of climate model refinement and improvement. CMIP5 models of the long-term historical (1850–2005) run experiment are compared using wavelet-based multiscale descriptive and diagnostic techniques with interesting results. Wavelet coherence maps can visualize the ability of alternative CMPI5 models to capture the observed climate variability at different time scales, while the performance of each CMIP5 model is assessed using goodness of fit relative measures on a scale-by-scale basis. Finally, the plots of wavelet decompositions of CMIP5 models and observed temperature series at different scales can detect and locate model/data disagreements across frequencies and over time, thus providing useful information to researchers for model diagnostic refinement and improvement.
      PubDate: 2022-02-28
      DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03269-9
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