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  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
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Climate Dynamics
Journal Prestige (SJR): 2.445
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
Number of Followers: 46  
 
  Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 1432-0894 - ISSN (Online) 0930-7575
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2468 journals]
  • Impacts of El Niño diversity on East Asian summertime precipitation
           extremes

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      Abstract: Abstract This study examines the impacts of Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Niño on summertime extreme precipitation over East Asia during the El Niño decay phase. The findings reveal distinct patterns of extreme precipitation for the two El Niño types. During EP El Niño, more intense extreme precipitation occurs over south of the Yangtze River (SYR), while suppressed extremes are observed over Mei-Yu rainband in China, Baiu in Japan, and Changma in South Korea (MBC). Conversely, CP El Niño leads to weaker (stronger) extreme precipitation over SYR (MBC). This study also differentiates between tropical cyclone (TC) and non-TC related precipitation, showing that TCs have minimal influence on the overall extreme precipitation compared to non-TC related events. Further investigation reveals that EP and CP El Niño distinctly influence atmospheric circulation patterns, thereby causing different distributions of non-TC extreme precipitation. Specifically, during EP El Niño, sea surface temperature (SST) warming signals in the tropical Indian Ocean induce the southward displacement of the South Asia High (SAH), westerly jet (WJ), and Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). This amplifies moisture flux convergence, elevating the likelihood of intense extreme precipitation over SYR. Conversely, MBC experiences moisture flux divergence, resulting in fewer precipitation extremes. During CP El Niño, SST warming signals in the Maritime Continent prompt the northward shift of SAH, WJ, and WPSH by modulating local Hadley circulations. These anomalies lead to strengthened moisture convergence (divergence) over MBC (SYR), consequently resulting in a higher (lower) likelihood of intense extreme precipitation over MBC (SYR).
      PubDate: 2024-03-02
       
  • Influence of winter northern Eurasian snow depth on the early summer
           Tibetan Plateau heat source during 1950–2019

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      Abstract: Abstract Previous studies have emphasized the significant influence of the atmospheric heat source of the Tibetan Plateau (TPHS) on the weather and climate in East Asia, but the causes and mechanisms of the TPHS variations remain unclear. In this study, the physical linkage between the winter northern Eurasian snow depth and early summer (May and June) TPHS during 1950–2019 is investigated. Our results indicate that excessive winter northern Eurasian snow can decrease the early summer TPHS through a delayed hydrological effect. In winter, excessive northern Eurasian snow depths lead to more snowmelt and wetter local soil in early summer. The wetter soil not only reduces the surface temperatures in northern Eurasia but also cools the atmosphere in the middle and upper troposphere. This cooling enhances the meridional temperature gradient between northern and southern Eurasia, which reinforces the westerly jet stream at mid-latitudes. The strong westerly jet stream enhances the sensible heat flux over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) by increasing the near-surface wind speed. Moreover, the enhanced meridional temperature gradient generates an anticyclonic and high-pressure anomaly over the southwestern side of the TP, thus decreasing the latent heat release over the TP. Because early summer marks the beginning of the rainy season on the TP, the TPHS in early summer is dominated by latent heat released by precipitation, which means that the wetter soil caused by the excessive winter snow depth in northern Eurasia eventually weakens the TPHS in early summer.
      PubDate: 2024-03-02
       
  • Correction to: The co-variability of SST and vertical wind shear on the
           variability of tropical cyclone intensity change in the Northern
           Hemisphere

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      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • Correction: Aerosol sensitivity simulations over East Asia in a
           convection-permitting climate model

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      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • Decrease of the spatial variability and local dimension of the
           Euro-Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream with global warming

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      Abstract: Abstract The atmospheric eddy-driven jet stream is one of the main features of the mid-latitude circulation. Although mostly zonal in climatological mean, the jet stream meanders at meteorological time scales. The jet and its variability have been under great scrutiny in the past years for their role in the triggering of extreme events (e.g. heat or cold waves) in mid-latitudes regions. Because of the large variability of the jet, the impact of climate change remains elusive. Here we study the eddy-driven jet stream over the Euro-Atlantic sector and assess its dynamical properties in ERA5 and ERA20C reanalysis data set using indicators from dynamical system theory. We control for global modes of variability and aerosols emissions to disentangle the impact of global warming from the impact of natural variability of the climate system on the jet. We find that over the period 1900–2010, global warming decreased the local dimension and spatial variability of the jet. This decrease in variability is connected to an increase in jet persistence and speed. We additionally observe a poleward shift of the jet. Our results suggest a zonalisation of the jet under global warming. This evolution is more pronounced in summer than in winter.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • Distinctive changes of Asian–African summer monsoon in interglacial
           epochs and global warming scenario

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      Abstract: Abstract Precipitation was claimed to increase over Asian–African summer monsoon (AAM) regions during past interglacial epochs and also under future global warming scenario. Using CMIP6 model experiments, this study compares the simulated changes of AAM in Last Interglacial (LIG) and Mid-Holocene (MH) to that global warming scenario. Moisture budget analysis shows that the increased monsoon rainfall during interglacial epochs primarily results from the dynamic process associated with strengthened monsoon circulation but is caused by thermodynamic process under global warming scenario associated with increased mean moisture. To disentangle the mechanisms for the distinct changes in vertical and horizontal monsoon circulation, we further decompose the response of AAM to global warming into the direct effect from CO2 radiative forcing and the indirect effect due to increased sea surface temperature (SST), based on idealized experiments. The results show that the effect of direct CO2 radiative forcing on the AAM is similar with that in interglacial epochs driven by enhanced land–ocean equivalent potential temperature contrast, both of which are characterized by strengthened vertical and horizontal monsoon circulation despite regional difference. However, the above effect is overwhelmed by the substantially increased SST under global warming, which is absent in interglacial epochs. The substantial SST warming acts to weaken the monsoon circulation by decreasing the land–ocean equivalent potential temperature contrast and enhancing atmospheric static stability. Therefore, the lack of global SST warming in interglacial epoch is the primary cause for the distinct change of AAM circulation from global warming scenario.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • Exceptional sea ice loss leading to anomalously deep winter convection
           north of Svalbard in 2018

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      Abstract: Abstract An important question is will deep convection sites, where deep waters are ventilated and air-gas exchange into the deep ocean occurs, emerge in the Arctic Ocean with the warming climate. As sea ice retreats northward and as Arctic sea ice becomes younger and thinner, air-sea interactions are strengthening in the high-latitude oceans. This includes new and extreme deep convection events. We investigate the associated physical processes and examine impacts and implications. Focusing on a region near the Arctic gateway of Fram Strait, our study confirms a significant sea ice cover reduction north of Svalbard in 2018 compared to the past decade, shown in observations and several numerical studies. We conduct our study using the regional configuration Arctic and North Hemisphere Atlantic of the ocean/sea ice model NEMO, running at 1/12° resolution (ANHA12). Our numerical study shows that the open water condition during the winter of 2018 allows intense winter convection over the Yermak Plateau, as more oceanic heat is lost to the atmosphere without the insulating sea ice cover, causing the mixed layer depth to reach over 600 m. Anomalous wind prior to the deep convection event forces offshore sea ice movement and contributes to the reduced sea ice cover. The sea ice loss is also attributed to the excess heat brought by the Atlantic Water, which reaches its maximum in the preceding winter in Fram Strait. The deep convection event coincides with enhanced mesoscale eddy activity on the boundary of the Yermak Plateau, especially to the east. The resulting substantial heat loss to the atmosphere also leads to a heat content reduction integrated over the Yermak Plateau region. This event can be linked to the minimum southward sea ice volume flux through Fram Strait in 2018, which is a potential negative freshwater anomaly in the subpolar Atlantic.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • A new conceptual model of global ocean heat uptake

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      Abstract: Abstract We formulate a new conceptual model, named “MT2”, to describe global ocean heat uptake, as simulated by atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced by increasing atmospheric CO \(_{2}\) , as a function of global-mean surface temperature change T and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC, M). MT2 has two routes whereby heat reaches the deep ocean. On the basis of circumstantial evidence, we hypothetically identify these routes as low- and high-latitude. In low latitudes, which dominate the global-mean energy balance, heat uptake is temperature-driven and described by the two-layer model, with global-mean T as the temperature change of the upper layer. In high latitudes, a proportion p (about 14%) of the forcing is taken up along isopycnals, mostly in the Southern Ocean, nearly like a passive tracer, and unrelated to T. Because the proportion p depends linearly on the AMOC strength in the unperturbed climate, we hypothesise that high-latitude heat uptake and the AMOC are both affected by some characteristic of the unperturbed global ocean state, possibly related to stratification. MT2 can explain several relationships among AOGCM projections, some found in this work, others previously reported: \(\bullet \)  Ocean heat uptake efficiency correlates strongly with the AMOC. \(\bullet \)  Global ocean heat uptake is not correlated with the AMOC. \(\bullet \)  Transient climate response (TCR) is anticorrelated with the AMOC. \(\bullet \)  T projected for the late twenty-first century under high-forcing scenarios correlates more strongly with the effective climate sensitivity than with the TCR.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • What is the effect of atmospheric initial condition inconsistency between
           the hindcasts and real-time forecasts'

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      Abstract: Abstract The effects of initial errors in the subseasonal prediction are investigated using the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5). Two experiments are designed that utilized (1) analysis data from weather prediction and (2) reanalysis data as the atmospheric initial conditions, which are considered processes of the current operational system. A comparison of these two experiments reveals the effect of the atmospheric initial conditions on subseasonal prediction. Additionally, the effects of different initial prescriptions on the hindcasts and forecasts are investigated. GloSea5 generally represents the observed temperature patterns well; however, cold biases are distinct over continents in the Northern Hemisphere, including the East Asia region in the hindcast results. However, the forecast results simulate anomalously high temperatures in most regions, except for parts of the polar and Australian regions. In this study, it is clear that improved atmospheric initial conditions lead to changes in the prediction skills of variables related to seasonal climate variability in mid-latitude regions. In addition, the biases of the surface temperature are reduced in most regions when the atmospheric initial condition are made consistent between the hindcast and forecast. Notably, increased initial errors in real-time forecasts, compared to hindcasts, can cause more biases in surface temperature and atmospheric circulation fields on a subseasonal time scale.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • Summer compound heatwaves over China: projected changes at different
           global warming levels and related physical processes

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      Abstract: Abstract Based on the multi-model ensemble mean of CMIP6 simulations, the future changes in frequency, intensity and duration of Compound (both daytime and nighttime) heatwaves (HWs) in summer over China at various global warming levels (GWLs) under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 are assessed. HWs over China become more frequent and hotter, and the duration of HWs becomes longer compared to those in the recent climate. The magnitudes of these changes are primarily dependent on GWLs, but they are not very sensitive to the scenarios. At 4 ℃ GWL, the frequency of HWs increases by more than fivefold under both scenarios, and the intensity (duration) of HWs averaged under the two scenarios is 2.28 ℃ hotter (3.59 days longer) than the one in the recent climate over the entire China. Meanwhile, the maximum duration of HW events can reach more than 25 days in summer in comparison with 8 days in the recent climate. The changes in HW properties are regionally dependent at the four GWLs. For example, the largest increase in HW frequency is over the Northwest China, the largest increase in intensity in HWs is seen over the Northeast and Northwest, and the largest increase in HW duration is over the Southwest China. The extreme rare events (50-year and 100-year events) in the recent climate would become the norm over China and four sub-regions at 4 ℃ GWL. Overall, seasonal mean warming dominates the changes in HW properties over China at the different GWLs. The seasonal mean warming in summer across China is related to the increases of longwave radiation, partly due to increase in greenhouse gas forcing and partly resulted from increased water vapor and the increase of shortwave radiation (under the SSP5-8.5) over eastern China related to decreases in aerosols and total cloud cover. Furthermore, the regional variations in the water vapor over China are consistent with atmospheric circulation changes. The seasonal mean surface warming results in enhanced upward sensible and latent heat fluxes, leading to increased summer mean daily maximum and minimum of near-surface air temperature and the enhancement of HWs properties over the entire China. Changes of shortwave radiation tend to play a weaker role for surface warming under the SSP3-7.0 than those under the SSP5-8.5, which is related to increased aerosol changes under the SSP3-7.0.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • CMIP6 precipitation and temperature projections for Chile

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      Abstract: Abstract Precipitation and near-surface temperature from an ensemble of 36 new state‐of‐the‐art climate models under the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) are evaluated over Chile’s climate. The analysis is focused on four distinct climatic subregions: Northern Chile, Central Chile, Northern Patagonia, and Southern Patagonia. Over each of the subregions, first, we evaluate the performance of individual global climate models (GCMs) against a suit of precipitation and temperature observation-based gridded datasets over the historical period (1986–2014) and then we analyze the models’ projections for the end of the century (2080–2099) for four different shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios (SSP). Although the models are characterized by general wet and warm mean bias, they reproduce realistically the main spatiotemporal climatic variability over different subregions. However, none of the models is best across all subregions for both precipitation and temperature. Moreover, among the best performing models defined based on the Taylor skill score, one finds the so-called “hot models” likely exhibiting an overestimated climate sensitivity, which suggests caution in using these models for accessing future climate change in Chile. We found robust (90% of models agree in the direction of change) projected end-of-the-century reductions in mean annual precipitation for Central Chile (~ − 20 to ~ − 40%) and Northern Patagonia (~ − 10 to ~ − 30%) under scenario SSP585, but changes are strong from scenario SSP245 onwards, where precipitation is reduced by 10–20%. Northern Chile and Southern Patagonia show non-robust changes in precipitation across the models. Yet, future near-surface temperature warming presented high inter-model agreement across subregions, where the greatest increments occurred along the Andes Mountains. Northern Chile displays the strongest increment of up to ~ 6 °C in SSP585, followed by Central Chile (up to ~ 5 °C). Both Northern and Southern Patagonia show a corresponding increment by up to ~ 4 °C. We also briefly discuss about the environmental and socio-economic implications of these future changes for Chile.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • Atmospheric response to seasonal changes in sea surface temperature during
           the boreal summer in the Tropical Atlantic

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      Abstract: Abstract We investigate the atmospheric response to seasonal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Atlantic during the boreal summer, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional atmospheric model. Three ensembles of 11 simulations each are produced with different SST forcings: the control ensemble (CTL) uses the observed climatology of the SST in 2000–2009, while the Frozen North (FzN) and Frozen South (FzS) experiments block the seasonal warming or cooling of the SST from June onwards in a region confined to the eastern tropical Atlantic. The result is a cold SST anomaly in the northeastern tropical Atlantic off the coasts of Senegal and Mauritania in FzN, and a warm anomaly in the southeastern region (Gulf of Guinea and the cold tongue zone in the equatorial Atlantic) in FzS. Comparison with CTL reveals significant impacts of these SST anomalies on the position and intensity of the marine intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and on West African rainfall during July and August. Over the ocean, the cold anomaly in NETA suppresses convection on the northern side of the ITCZ (north of 10 \(^\circ\) N), while the warm anomaly in the Gulf of Guinea strengthens convection on its southern flank. The latter is also leading to a sharp increase in precipitation in the coastal regions to the northeast of the Gulf of Guinea. These changes are clearly due to variations in surface pressure gradients and the divergence of low-level moisture in response to SST anomalies, which in turn induce changes in deep atmospheric convection through thermodynamic feedback. On the continent, a substantial reduction in precipitation is observed in the western Sahel (particularly Senegal) following the cold anomaly in NETA, and in the eastern Sahel following the warm anomaly in the Gulf of Guinea: both are explained by a positive anomaly in the divergence of moisture transport in the upper troposphere, associated with an acceleration of the African easterly jet along its southern edge. However, the mechanism by which the SST anomalies create this acceleration in both experiments remains to be elucidated.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • Uncertainty assessment of future climate change using bias-corrected
           high-resolution multi-regional climate model datasets over East Asia

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      Abstract: Abstract The quantitative assessment of the uncertainty components of future climate projections is critical for decision-makers and organizations to establish climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies at regional or local scales. This is the first study in which the changes in the uncertainty components of future temperature and precipitation projections are quantitatively evaluated using multiple regional climate models over East Asia, vulnerable to future climate change. For temperature, internal variability and model uncertainty were the main factors affecting the near-term projections. The scenario uncertainty continued to increase and was estimated to be the dominant factor affecting the uncertainty after the mid-term projections. Although precipitation has the same main uncertainty factors as the temperature in the near-term projections, it considerably differs from temperature because the internal variability notably contributes to the fraction to the total variance, even in the long-term projections. The internal variability of the temperature and precipitation in the near-term projections were predicted to be larger in Korea than that in East Asia. This was confirmed by regional climate models as well as previous studies using global climate models as to the importance of internal variability at smaller regional scales during the near-term projections. This study is meaningful because it provides new possibilities with respect to the consideration of climate uncertainties to the establishment of climate change policies in more detail on the regional scale.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • A global climatology of tropical easterly waves

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      Abstract: Abstract Tropical easterly waves (TEWs) are westward-propagating off-equatorial waves that are typically convectively coupled. TEWs make significant contributions to the annual rainfall in many regions of the tropics, and often seed tropical cyclones. Climatologies of TEWs exist regionally and hemispherically, however, none exist at the global scale. The climatology in this study is the first attempt to study TEWs globally, applying a combination of the TRACK algorithm and objective criteria to all basins to identify TEW activity at both 850 and 700 hPa. In addition to areas of TEW activity in previously studied regions such as the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific Ocean basins, this study has identified TEW activity in every other tropical ocean basin in both hemispheres. On average across the globe, the methods employed tracked 380 waves per year at 850 hPa and 638 waves per year at 700 hPa. There were no significant linear trends globally or hemispherically over the 41 years analyzed, but large interannual variability. Despite the variety of regions the TEWs occur in, the distribution of average speeds agrees with studies using other data and tracking methods, with averages between 7.5–8 m s−1 depending on the level and hemisphere. TEW activity shows a strong preference to the warm season, with approximately double the number of TEWs occurring in the warm season compared to the cold season, a pattern that is observed in both the northern and southern hemispheres. This database is publicly available to enable further work in understanding TEW behavior and predictability globally.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • The co-variability of SST and vertical wind shear on the variability of
           tropical cyclone intensity change in the Northern Hemisphere

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      Abstract: Abstract The impact of the co-variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and vertical wind shear (VWS) on the variability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change (ΔV, defined as 24-h intensity change) in the northern hemisphere (NH) is discussed from both interannual and long-term time scales based on the maximum covariance analysis (MCA) and trend analysis, respectively. It is found that the coupling feature in the co-variability of SST and VWS clearly modulates the relationship between the regional variability of TC intensity change and that of SST and VWS. From an interannual time scale, the variability of TC ΔV and intensification rate (IR, ΔV for records with ΔV > 0) is highly correlated with the co-variability of SST and VWS in regions where SST and VWS move together in a direction that favors (inhibits) TC development, while the relationship involves greater uncertainty in regions where SST and VWS move in an opposite direction in affecting TC intensity change. From a long-term aspect, the coupling feature of SST and VWS trends also show modulation on regional differences in ΔV and IR trends. Specifically, although the ΔV and IR of NH TCs are expected to increase under global warming, their trends are obviously more pronounced for TCs in areas where warming SST trends are accompanied by decreasing VWS trends. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the co-variability of SST and VWS in interpreting the climate variability of TC intensity change.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • Investigating the Atlantic-Indian monsoon teleconnection pathways in PMIP3
           last millennium simulations

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      Abstract: Abstract The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is considered as one of the major drivers of Indian Summer monsoon (ISM) multidecadal variability. The teleconnection is thought to take place via two dominant pathways—by generating upper-level circulation and heating responses across Eurasia and via the Atlantic-Pacific atmospheric bridge mechanism and associated modulations of Hadley-Walker circulations. Using the PMIP3 Last millennium (LM) simulations, the current study investigates these pathways in five models which exhibit a significant positive correlation between AMO and ISM. In all the models, the upper-level wave responses associated with the AMO are found to be inadequate to induce positive tropospheric temperature (TT) anomalies over the ISM domain. In the four models which capture the AMO modulation of summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) variability, major discrepancies are observed in the SNAO downstream TT responses. The extratropical-tropical Pacific SST gradient is a critical aspect of the Atlantic-Pacific atmospheric bridge mechanism. A positive correlation is observed between the AMO and the Pacific SST gradient in all the models and the associated Walker circulation response is also captured in the LM simulations. Thus while the upper-level circulation and TT responses involved in the Eurasian pathway, are not captured by most of the models, the Pacific pathway emerges as a better represented teleconnection pathway in the LM simulations. Reliability of decadal climate predictions of ISM largely depends on the fidelity of global models in simulating these teleconnection mechanisms and the current study highlights some of the main deficiencies in the model simulated teleconnection processes.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • Role of deep convection and dynamics on the tracer distribution in the
           upper troposphere and lower stratosphere region during active and break
           phases of the Asian summer monsoon

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      Abstract: Abstract The Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) exhibit different modes of variability in which the active and break phases is one of the most prominent intraseasonal scale variability of the ASM. The shift in convective centres to more polluted regions coupled with the associated circulation features during these phases results in a redistribution of trace species in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region. Apropos to this, this study presents a quantitative assessment of the variability in the spatial distribution of ozone, carbon monoxide (CO) and water vapour (H2O) in the UTLS during the active and break phase of ASM with respect to the seasonal mean background using fifteen years (2005–2019) of Aura-MLS observations in conjunction with reanalysis data sets, cloud-top brightness temperatures and trajectory analysis. These 15-years of data is used to make composite maps of tracer anomalies to investigate the varying influence of monsoon convection, transport and ASMA dynamics in the UTLS region during the active/break phase. This study shows that, while the distribution of trace species during both phases is determined by the combined role of convection and transport in the upper troposphere, changes in ASMA modes, transport and tropopause dynamics during the active/break phases controls the spatial pattern of both tropospheric and stratospheric species near the tropopause level.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • Reconstruction of seasonal precipitation anomalies from tree-ring latewood
           records in southeastern China

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      Abstract: Abstract To investigate variations in inter-annual to decadal warm season precipitation in southeastern China, we developed new tree-ring-width chronologies (i.e., tree-ring-width: TRW; earlywood width: EWW; latewood width: LWW; and adjust latewood width: LWWa) for Pinus massoniana from three sampling sites where the sensitivity of climatic proxy is weak. Our results demonstrate that ring-width chronologies positively correlate with precipitation and moisture conditions, while negatively correlating with temperature during the growing season. A regional LWW chronology (spanning 1833–2015) derived from three site series shows a strong positive precipitation sensitivity during the warm season (May–October, r = 0.66), signifying reduced LWW growth in years of insufficient precipitation. We reconstructed warm season precipitation (PREC5–10) for the period 1833–2015, achieving robust calibration-verification statistics. Our reconstruction identified 11 extremely dry and 29 extremely wet years over the past 183 years. We validated the reconstruction by comparing it with other hydroclimatic reconstructions and historical records from neighboring regions. Wavelet analysis revealed that PREC5–10 is dominated by interdecadal (8–24 year) variations. From 1940 to 1980, interdecadal fluctuation intensified, becoming significant, and the relationship between PREC5–10 and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean exhibited a Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-like pattern. PDO influences precipitation changes in southeastern China by altering atmospheric circulation over East Asia, thus affecting the interdecadal variation of precipitation in the region. Our findings highlight the utility of intra-annual tree-ring indices for reconstructing seasonal hydroclimate changes in humid regions of China and provide valuable insights into the impacts of extreme weather events related to hydroclimate variations in southeastern China.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • Future risk of decadal megadrought events over eastern China based on
           IPO-constrained precipitation

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      Abstract: Abstract A reliable projection of future risk of decadal megadrought is crucial to adaption and mitigation over eastern China in future climate changes. However, it’s difficult to forecast the time of megadrought, which is dominated by internal variability of the model. Using a 50-member ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE), it is found that, under the medium-high emission scenario (i.e., SSP3-7.0), internal variability account for all the uncertainty of decadal precipitation variability over eastern China, and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) could contribute about 30% to the internal uncertainty during future period (2021–2080). Finally, an emergent constraint based on IPO phase is applied to reduce the uncertainty of simulated precipitation and to forecast the future megadrought risk. The constrained precipitation changes show that northern China will experience a high megadrought risk in the 2050s–2060s, and Yangtze River Valley will experience a high megadrought risk in the 2030s–2040s. These will have great benefit to specific strategies of social infrastructure in the future.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
  • Seasonally varying SST changes in the joining area of Asia and
           Indian-Pacific Ocean from boreal spring to summer

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      Abstract: Abstract The seasonal evolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the joining area of Asia and Indian-Pacific Ocean (AIPO) has strong impacts on its surrounding areas. Greenhouse gas-induced global warming brings seasonally varying changes in SST in AIPO, the formation of which is not totally understood. Based on historical and SSP5-8.5 runs of 23 climate models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, this study shows that the SST changes under global warming over AIPO have considerable seasonal variation from boreal spring to summer and their formation is related to different physical processes. The AIPO SST changes show distinct seasonal variations across two subregions: the eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) experiences more pronounced warming in April and May compared to the annual mean, while the EIO and equatorial western Pacific (EWP) exhibit weaker warming from June to August. In the EIO, the seasonal variation in the changes in evaporative damping effect dominates the seasonal variation in SST changes, due to the change in surface wind speed and climatological evaporative damping. Compared to other seasons, the stronger warming during June and July in the equatorial eastern Pacific causes a greater eastward shift of convective upward motion in the EWP. This results in reduced shortwave radiation and weaker warming over the EWP during these months.
      PubDate: 2024-03-01
       
 
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