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  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 112 journals)
Showing 1 - 36 of 36 Journals sorted by number of followers
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 198)
Nature Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 133)
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 80)
Atmospheric Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 73)
Atmospheric Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 69)
Climatic Change     Open Access   (Followers: 64)
Journal of Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 54)
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society     Open Access   (Followers: 51)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)     Open Access   (Followers: 48)
Climate Dynamics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44)
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 43)
Climate Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 42)
Nature Reports Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 37)
Atmospheric Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 36)
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 35)
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 34)
Monthly Weather Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 34)
International Journal of Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 31)
Boundary-Layer Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 31)
American Journal of Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 29)
Advances in Climate Change Research     Open Access   (Followers: 29)
Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 29)
Developments in Atmospheric Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 28)
Weather and Forecasting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27)
Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 27)
Atmosphere     Open Access   (Followers: 26)
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 26)
Space Weather     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 25)
Advances in Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 24)
Energy & Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24)
Tellus A     Open Access   (Followers: 22)
Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 21)
International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 21)
Tellus B     Open Access   (Followers: 21)
Climate Change Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20)
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
Weather     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
Global Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 17)
Weather and Climate Extremes     Open Access   (Followers: 16)
Atmosphere-Ocean     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 15)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions (ACPD)     Open Access   (Followers: 15)
Journal of Meteorology and Climate Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 14)
Theoretical and Applied Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Journal of Hydrometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 11)
Climate Change Responses     Open Access   (Followers: 10)
Climate Resilience and Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 9)
Climate law     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Environmental Dynamics and Global Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Climate Change Research Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan     Partially Free   (Followers: 6)
Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Climate Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Aeolian Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Current Climate Change Reports     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Open Journal of Modern Hydrology     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Change and Adaptation in Socio-Ecological Systems     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Climate Risk Management     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
The Cryosphere (TC)     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Climate of the Past (CP)     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Urban Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Environmental and Climate Technologies     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Carbon Balance and Management     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
The Cryosphere Discussions (TCD)     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Weatherwise     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Meteorological Applications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Climate Services     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Meteorologische Zeitschrift     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Atmósfera     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Climatology     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Ciencia, Ambiente y Clima     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Frontiers in Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Economics of Disasters and Climate Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Acta Meteorologica Sinica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Atmospheric Environment : X     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Weather Modification     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Open Atmospheric Science Journal     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
GeoHazards     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Climate and Energy     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
International Journal of Image and Data Fusion     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Meteorologica     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Climate Summary of South Africa     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Meteorological Monographs     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
气候与环境研究     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Meteorological Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Michigan Journal of Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
International Journal of Biometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Mediterranean Marine Science     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Large Marine Ecosystems     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Weather and Climate Dynamics     Open Access  
Journal of Agricultural Meteorology     Open Access  
Nīvār     Open Access  
Revista Iberoamericana de Bioeconomía y Cambio Climático     Open Access  
Mètode Science Studies Journal : Annual Review     Open Access  
Earth Perspectives - Transdisciplinarity Enabled     Open Access  
Climate of the Past Discussions (CPD)     Open Access  
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia     Open Access  
Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica     Hybrid Journal  

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Similar Journals
Journal Cover
Climate Dynamics
Journal Prestige (SJR): 2.445
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
Number of Followers: 44  
  Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 1432-0894 - ISSN (Online) 0930-7575
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2652 journals]
  • Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and
           importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability
    • Abstract: Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, over recent decades. Heat early warning systems are being set up in many regions as a tool to mitigate their effects. Such systems are not yet implemented in the West African Sahel, partly because of insufficient knowledge on the skill of models to predict them. The present study addresses this gap by examining the skill of the ECMWF ENS extended-range forecasting system (ENS-ext) to predict Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead-times. It also assesses the importance of tropical modes of variability, which were previously identified as important large-scale drivers of heatwave occurrence in the Sahel. The results show that ENS-ext is able to predict Sahelian heatwaves with significant skill out to lead-week 2–3. With increasing lead-time, heatwaves are more predictable at nighttime than at daytime. Likewise, the pre-monsoon season heatwaves have a longer predictability than those occurring in late winter. The model is also able to relatively well simulate the observed relationship between heatwave occurrence and tropical mode activity. Furthermore, the prediction skill is better during the active phases of the modes, suggesting that they are good sources of heatwave predictability. Therefore, improving the representation of tropical modes in models will positively impact heatwave prediction at the subseasonal scale in the Sahel, and gain more time and precision for anticipatory actions.
      PubDate: 2021-03-14
  • Multi-decadal convection-permitting climate projections for China’s
           Greater Bay Area and surroundings
    • Abstract: The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is the world’s largest bay area in terms of land area and population, which has been increasingly suffering from weather and climate extremes under global warming. It is thus desired to produce reliable high-resolution climate information at a regional scale in order to enhance resilience to climate change over the GBA. For the first time, this study develops the multi-decadal nested-grid climate projections at a convection-permitting scale for the GBA, and assesses the abilities of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 36-, 12- and 4 km resolutions in representing precipitation, temperature and their extremes. Our findings indicate the added value of the convection-permitting WRF model for simulating the spring and summertime precipitation as well as extreme heavy rainfall events with daily amounts larger than 30 mm over the GBA. Increasing the spatial resolution of the WRF model does not necessarily lead to a significant improvement on temperature simulations. In addition, our findings reveal that the GBA is expected to have an increasing number of heavy and extreme heavy rainfall events by the end of the twenty-first century. Moreover, the GBA is projected to have a large temperature change across different seasons, and an enhanced warming will appear in autumn. The GBA is also expected to have more summer days with longer durations, thereby leading to an increasing risk of heatwaves and heat stress.
      PubDate: 2021-03-13
  • Assessment of climate change impact on wintertime meteorology over
           California using dynamical downscaling method with a bias correction
    • Abstract: Climate change can potentially have great impacts on wintertime precipitation and stagnant conditions, which are critical for both water resources and wintertime particulate matter (PM), in California. This study utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting model to dynamically downscale a bias-corrected coarse-resolution global climate model dataset from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to a grid size of 4 × 4 km2 over California for a present (2003–2012) and a future (2046–2055) decade. Compared to the present climate, an increase in 2-m temperature (up to 2 K) and water vapor mixing ratio (up to 1 g/kg) and a decrease in planetary boundary layer height (up to 80 m) are projected by the 2050s for the entire state of California. The number of stagnant days over the San Joaquin Valley is expected to increase by approximately 6% in the future decade, indicating potential exacerbation of the winter PM issue in this region. The wintertime precipitation is projected to increase by up to 50% in northern California and, conversely, to decrease by up to 40% in southern California during 2046–2055. The solid phase precipitation is projected to decrease over mountain ranges with lower elevations despite an overall increase in total precipitation, while it is projected to increase over the eastern side of the Sierra Nevada with elevation over 2 km.
      PubDate: 2021-03-12
  • Influence of aerosols on clouds, precipitation and freezing level height
           over the foothills of the Himalayas during the Indian summer monsoon
    • Abstract: Long term (2002–2017) satellite-retrieved and reanalysis datasets are utilized to assess the daily and interannual timescale impact of aerosol loadings on the cloud properties, precipitation amounts, and freezing level height over the southern slopes and adjacent foothills (SSFH) of the Himalayas during the Indian summer monsoon season. Daily timescale composites during polluted days suggest the development of widespread deeper clouds and higher precipitation amounts. Significant efforts were carried out to isolate the role of weather forcing in the daily timescale from the outlined aerosol-cloud-precipitation relationship by using the environmental relative humidity (RH) and vertical velocity (ω). Results provide strong evidence suggesting that regardless of weather pattern forcing, the direct association of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with precipitation, and cloud properties remained consistent for day-to-day timescales. The spatial correlation analyses of daily AOD with cloud properties and precipitation during both wet and dry monsoonal years indicate a positive association of higher aerosol concentration with cloud vertical development and precipitation. The 0 °C isotherm altitude is found to be higher by 136.82 ± 18.82 m (mean ± standard deviation) during the polluted days in comparison to relatively cleaner environments, which can be crucial for the change in snow line and melting of glaciers impacting the hydroclimate of the Himalayas. Our results suggest that the influence of aerosol on modulating the regional precipitation and freezing level height can be significant for the hydroclimate of the Himalayan region in a daily to interannual timescale.
      PubDate: 2021-03-11
  • Correction to: Emergence of robust anthropogenic increase of heat
           stress-related variables projected from CORDEX-CORE climate simulations
    • Abstract: The original version of the article contained error in the Fig. 8 caption was swapped and below is the corrected caption.
      PubDate: 2021-03-09
  • Tropical cyclone precipitation in the HighResMIP atmosphere-only
           experiments of the PRIMAVERA Project
    • Abstract: This study examines the climatology and structure of rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) based on the atmosphere-only Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) HighResMIP runs of the PRocess-based climate sIMulation: AdVances in high resolution modelling and European climate Risk Assessment (PRIMAVERA) Project during 1979–2014. We evaluate how the spatial resolution of climate models with a variety of dynamic cores and parameterization schemes affects the representation of TC rainfall. These HighResMIP atmosphere-only runs that prescribe historical sea surface temperatures and radiative forcings can well reproduce the observed spatial pattern of TC rainfall climatology, with high-resolution models generally performing better than the low-resolution ones. Overall, the HighResMIP atmosphere-only runs can also reproduce the observed percentage contribution of TC rainfall to total amounts, with an overall better performance by the high-resolution models. The models perform better over ocean than over land in simulating climatological total TC rainfall, TC rainfall proportion and TC rainfall per TC in terms of spatial correlation. All the models in the HighResMIP atmosphere-only runs underestimate the observed composite TC rainfall structure over both land and ocean, especially in their lower resolutions. The underestimation of rainfall composites by the HighResMIP atmosphere-only runs is also supported by the radial profile of TC rainfall. Overall, the increased spatial resolution generally leads to an improved model performance in reproducing the observed TC rainfall properties.
      PubDate: 2021-03-08
  • Active and weakening MJO events in the Maritime Continent
    • Abstract: To better understand the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the Maritime Continent (MC), events from 1980 to 2019 were classified as active or weakening according to propagation characteristics and amplitude changes in two leading indices, the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) MJO Index (OMI). Active MJO events had larger index amplitudes than weakening events, and those amplitude differences appeared at day − 3 in the RMM and day − 8 in the OMI and remained through day + 15 in both indices (day 0 marked the day an event entered the MC). Thus, active events were stronger than weakening events as they approached and crossed the MC. To understand differences in environments between these events, composites of OLR and specific humidity were compared for each. Active MJO events had consistently more negative OLR anomalies and greater specific humidity in both the boundary layer and free troposphere than weakening MJO events. Those differences persisted during both easterly and westerly phases of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and during La Niña and El Niño. Active MJO events during QBO westerly winds had more specific humidity than active events did during QBO easterly winds. Finally, both active and weakening MJO events featured a diurnal cycle of lower-tropospheric specific humidity over land areas of the MC, and the amount of atmospheric moisture available to active events was consistently greater than weakening ones. These results indicate that index amplitude, OLR, and tropospheric specific humidity can all be important tools in identifying active and weakening MJO events in the MC, including for different phases of the QBO and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
      PubDate: 2021-03-05
  • Evaluation of trends in extreme temperatures simulated by HighResMIP
           models across Europe
    • Abstract: Simulation of past climate is an important tool for the validation of climate models. The comparison with observed daily values allows us to assess the reliability of their projections on climatic extremes in a future climate. The frequency and amplitude of extreme events are fundamental aspects that climate simulations need to reproduce as they have high impacts on economy and society. The ability to simulate them will help policy makers in taking better measures to face climate change. This work aims at evaluating how six models within the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project reproduce the trends on extreme indices as they have been observed over Europe in the 1970–2014 period. Observed values are provided by the new homogenized version of the E-OBS gridded dataset. The comparison is performed through the use of indices based on seasonal averages and on exceedances of percentile-based thresholds, focusing on six subregions. Winter-average minimum temperature is generally underestimated by models (down to − 4 °C difference over Italy and Norway) while simulated trends in seasonal averages and extreme values are found to be too cold on Eastern Europe and too warm on Iberia and Southern Europe (e.g. up to a difference of − 4% per decade on the number of Cold Nights over Spain). On the other hand the models tend to overestimate summer maximum temperatures averages in the Mediterranean Area (up to + 5 °C over the Balkans) and underestimate these at higher latitudes. Iberia, Southern and Eastern Europe are simulated with too low trends in average summer temperatures. The simulated trends are too strong on the North West part and too weak on the South East part of Europe (down to − 3%/decade on the number of Warm Days over Italy and Western Balkans). These results corroborate the findings of previous studies about the underestimation of the warming trends of summer temperatures in Southern Europe, where these are more intense and have more impacts. The high-resolution versions of the models are compared to their lower-resolution counterparts, similar to those used in the CMIP5, showing a slight improvement for the simulation of extreme winter minimum temperatures, while no significant progresses have been found for extreme summer maximum temperatures.
      PubDate: 2021-03-05
  • The importance of inter‐basin atmospheric teleconnection in the SST
           footprint of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation over western Pacific
    • Abstract: Western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) multidecadal fluctuations are synchronized to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) phenomenon during the instrumental period. The possible mechanism of the inter-basin synchronization of multidecadal SST variability still remains a matter of discussion regarding the roles of external radiative forcing and internal inter-basin interaction. Here we address this issue using simulations of CMIP5 coupled models and a partially coupled model experiment with prescribed SSTs over the North Atlantic. Observational analysis suggests that in association with the warm AMO phase, prominent SST warming occurs over the western Pacific, accompanied by anomalous low pressures and ascending motion that maintain the warm SST anomalies through positive feedback of local air–sea interaction. The upward motion in the western Pacific corresponds to a significant intensification of Pacific zonal Walker circulation, which is coupled with an increase in the zonal gradient of atmospheric temperature aloft. The CMIP5 model simulated externally forced component of AMO-related changes in western Pacific SST is weak, associated with little change in Pacific zonal circulation showing an absence of anomalous upward motion over the western Pacific, and this is primarily resultant from the negligible changes in the zonal gradient of atmospheric temperature as a direct thermal response to the external radiative forcing. By contrast, the partially coupled model simulation forced by the Atlantic SST variations reasonably reproduces the observed AMO-related changes in western Pacific SST and pan-tropical atmospheric circulation. A surface radiation budget analysis for the western Pacific shows contrasting roles of AMO-related surface incoming solar radiation between the reanalysis/partially coupled model simulation and the forced signal in CMIP5, further confirming the key role of dynamically induced inter-basin atmospheric teleconnection in the multidecadal SST footprint of AMO over the western Pacific.
      PubDate: 2021-03-02
  • ENSO evolution asymmetry: EP versus CP El Niño
    • Abstract: Through an oceanic mixed-layer heat budget analysis, the dominant processes contributing to the largest decay rate (− 0.37 °C/mon) in EP El Nino, the moderate delay rate (− 0.22 °C/mon) in CP El Nino and the smallest decay rate (0.13 °C/mon) in La Nina, are identified. The result shows that both dynamic (wind induced equatorial ocean waves and thermocline changes) and thermodynamic (net surface solar radiation and latent heat flux changes) processes contribute to a fast decay and thus phase transition in EP El Niño composite, whereas the thermodynamic process has less effect on the decay rate for both CP El Niño and La Niña due to the westward shift of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) centers. Thus, the difference in surface wind stress forcing is critical in contributing to evolution asymmetry between CP El Niño and La Niña, while the difference in both the wind stress and heat flux anomalies contribute to evolution asymmetry between EP El Niño and La Niña. It is interesting to note that El Nino induced anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific is stronger and shifts more toward the east during EP El Niño than during CP El Niño, while compared to CP El Niño, the center of an anomalous cyclone during La Niña shifts further to the west. As a consequence, both EP and CP El Niño decay fast and transform into a La Niña episode in the subsequent year, whereas La Niña has a much slower decay rate and re-develops in the second year.
      PubDate: 2021-03-02
  • Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6
    • Abstract: The CORDEX-CORE initiative was developed with the aim of producing homogeneous regional climate model (RCM) projections over domains world wide. In its first phase, two RCMs were run at 0.22° resolution downscaling 3 global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 program for 9 CORDEX domains and two climate scenarios, the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The CORDEX-CORE simulations along with the CMIP5 GCM ensemble and the most recently produced CMIP6 GCM ensemble are analyzed, with focus on several temperature, heat, wet and dry hazard indicators for present day and mid-century and far future time slices. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble shows a better performance than the driving GCMs for several hazard indices due to its higher spatial resolution. For the far future time slice the 3 ensembles project an increase in all temperature and heat indices analyzed under the RCP8.5 scenario. The largest increases are always shown by the CMIP6 ensemble, except for Tx > 35 °C, for which the CORDEX-CORE projects higher warming. Extreme wet and flood prone maxima are projected to increase by the RCM ensemble over the la Plata basin in South America, the Congo basin in Africa, east North America, north east Europe, India and Indochina, regions where a better performance is obtained, whereas the GCM ensembles show small or negligible signals. Compound hazard hotspots based on heat, drought and wet indicators are detected in each continent worldwide in region like Central America, the Amazon, the Mediterranean, South Africa and Australia, where a linear relation is shown between the heatwave and drought change signal, and region like Arabian peninsula, the central and south east Africa region (SEAF), the north west America (NWN), south east Asia, India, China and central and northern European regions (WCE, NEU) where the same linear relation is found for extreme precipitation and HW increases. Although still limited, the CORDEX-CORE initiative was able to produce high resolution climate projections with almost global coverage and can provide an important resource for impact assessment and climate service activities.
      PubDate: 2021-03-02
  • Correction to: Shallowness of tropical low clouds as a predictor of
           climate models’ response to warming
    • Abstract: Several mistakes occur in the original article that need to be notified.
      PubDate: 2021-03-01
  • Correction to: Reversed impacts of the Arctic oscillation on the
           precipitation over the South China Sea and its surrounding areas in
           October and November
    • Abstract: The original publication of the article contained errors
      PubDate: 2021-03-01
  • Analysis of rain-shadows in the Ethiopian Mountains using climatological
           model data
    • Abstract: Orography is known to affect local meteorological conditions by inducing orographic rainfall and a rain shadow i.e. reduced rainfall on the mountain’s leeside with respect to the windward side. Therefore it has a strong effect on the local population and agriculture. Recent work highlights the ambiguities in the definition and difficulties in quantification of the rain shadow effect using observational data. A statistical approach is presented that allows its investigation based on climatological model data in geographically complex regions. This approach requires gridded rainfall and wind along with the model topography. The statistical aspects that contribute to the rainfall enhancement at the windward side are disentangled. These include, for windward and leeward events separately: frequency of occurrence, rainfall-event frequency, rainfall depth per event. By spatial aggregation the regional dependence of these statistics are calculated and visualized. The approach is used to characterize summer rain over the Ethiopian Highlands based a 21-year long simulation with the regional climate model ALARO-0 at 4 km resolution. There is an overall increased rainfall of 40% for windward events as compared to leeward events, but regionally this can exceed 150%. This increase can be attributed to the positive differences between windward and leeward events in their frequency of occurrence (on average 20%), and, in the rainfall per rainfall event (on average 16%). Mapped rain shadows correspond well to earlier qualitative observations and the small differences in probability of precipitation confirm that the mechanisms underlying the shadow effect are more complex than the textbook explanation.
      PubDate: 2021-03-01
  • Atmospheric response to the South Pacific Subtropical Dipole
    • Abstract: Recent studies have suggested a dipolar mode of sea surface temperature variability in the subtropical South Pacific that matures in the austral summer, which is known as the South Pacific Subtropical Dipole (SPSD). In our study, the summer atmospheric response to the SPSD is investigated using observational data and numerical model experiments. Our results show a baroclinic response equatorward of 30° S and a barotropic response poleward of 30° S. The SPSD causes precipitation anomalies over the subtropical South Pacific, and the associated diabatic heating induces a baroclinic response. The mid- and high-latitude barotropic response is similar to the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) and is accompanied by an anomalous shift of storm tracks. The associated anomalous eddy activity is responsible for the SAM-like response. The results of numerical model experiments are consistent with our observations, except for the weak response in the high latitude. In the subtropical South Pacific, the spatial pattern of atmospheric response to the SPSD resembles the atmospheric anomalies that force the SPSD. The subtropical atmospheric response and the SPSD interact with each other and comprise a coupled system.
      PubDate: 2021-03-01
  • Important role of North Atlantic air–sea coupling in the interannual
           predictability of summer precipitation over the eastern Tibetan Plateau
    • Abstract: Tibetan Plateau (TP) summer precipitation, whose first leading mode presents a dipole oscillation between the northeastern and southeastern TP, plays important roles in the water cycle and atmospheric circulation. Using a weakly coupled data assimilation (WCDA) system to constrain the atmospheric component in a coupled model with a global atmospheric reanalysis product, this study demonstrates significant improvements in predicting the interannual variation of summer precipitation over the eastern TP, capturing the strong reversal mode between the northeastern and southeastern TP. These improvements are mainly attributed to the strong air–sea coupling over the North Atlantic (NA) and its remote impacts on the TP precipitation. This coupling allows observation-constrained atmosphere to significantly influence initial conditions (ICs) of sea surface temperature (SST) in the NA area and then obviously affect predictions of both NA SST and summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO), which affects the downstream TP atmospheric circulation through the wave train of Eliassen-Palm (EP) stationary wave flux. This study highlights the importance of NA air–sea coupling in the interannual predictability of TP precipitation and suggests a new source of interannual predictability of TP precipitation.
      PubDate: 2021-03-01
  • Competing aerosol effects in triggering deep convection over the Indian
    • Abstract: Contrasting direct and feedback effects of aerosols on deep convection in the Gangetic Plain of Indian subcontinent have been analyzed by employing observation and modeling framework during the Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment conducted in 2011. The key question addressed in the current investigation is: while the aerosol direct radiative effect leads to reduced surface shortwave flux and possible stabilization of the lower atmosphere, how is the deep convection favored in a heavily polluted atmosphere' The composites of aerosol, cloud and meteorological parameters during the formation of deep convective clouds (DCCs) under both light- and heavy- pollution conditions are contrasted to elucidate the aerosol effects. An enhanced low-level warming is discernible due to the presence of heavily polluting absorbing aerosols. A seminal role of aerosols in increasing the moist static energy (MSE) through enhancement of internal energy is identified as a primary feature that increases the convection potential of the lower atmosphere. Concomitantly, the greater moisture convergence facilitated by dynamical feedback of enhanced low-level heating destabilizes the atmospheric stratification. Additionally, the microphysical invigoration is examined for any possible role, nevertheless, only a weakened invigoration could be observed possibly due to dominance of meteorology. The observed results are well supported by model simulation of a deep convective event under high- and low-aerosol backgrounds. Besides highlighting the dominance of radiative processes over microphysical processes under heavily polluted environment, the significant correlation between aerosol and high clouds observed during DCC formation under such conditions suggests that the aerosol direct effect in weakening convection could be overcome primarily through enhancement in MSE and concomitant moisture convergence.
      PubDate: 2021-03-01
  • Characterizing non-stationary compound extreme events in a changing
           climate based on large-ensemble climate simulations
    • Abstract: The dependence structure of temperature-precipitation compound events is analyzed across Canada using three datasets derived from Canadian Regional Climate Model Large Ensemble simulations, including raw model outputs (CanRCM4-LE) and two sets of multivariate bias-corrected model outputs (Canadian Large Ensembles Adjusted Datasets, CanLEAD-EWEMBI/S14FD). The performance of the ensembles to represent tail dependencies corresponding to warm-wet and warm-dry events is evaluated against NRCANmet observations for 1951–2000 using the copula goodness of fit test. The parameters of the copula model are estimated using a Bayesian framework to characterize the corresponding uncertainties. The non-stationarity of compound extreme climate events is analyzed for 1951–2100 using an ensemble pooling approach and the results are compared with the ones based on the independence assumption. Results show that multivariate bias-corrected climate simulations (i.e. CanLEAD) can better represent the correlated temperature-precipitation extremes compared to raw CanRCM4-LE outputs. The estimated joint return periods reduce significantly when the dependence structure is considered, compared to the independence assumption, for most regions especially in winter and summer. Therefore, analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation in isolation can result in dramatic underestimations of compound warm-wet and warm-dry events. Further, there is strong non-stationarity in the dependence structure of temperature and precipitation under climate change that can play a significant role in future compound extremes.
      PubDate: 2021-03-01
  • Projected near-term changes in temperature extremes over China in the
           mid-twenty-first century and underlying physical processes
    • Abstract: This study investigates the near-term future changes of temperature extremes in summer (June–August) and winter (December–February) seasons over mainland China in the mid-twenty-first century (FP; 2045–2055) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario relative to the present day (PD; 1994–2011) by using an atmosphere–ocean-mixed-layer coupled model MetUM-GOML1. The projected changes in hot extremes exhibit a rise in hottest day temperature (TXx) and warmest night temperature (TNx) and an increase in frequencies of summer days (SU) and tropical nights (TR). The projected changes in cold extremes show a rise in coldest day temperature (TXn) and coldest night temperature (TNn) and a decrease in frequencies of ice days (ID) and frost days (FD). The projected changes in temperature extremes in both seasons are primarily determined by changes in seasonal mean daily maximum and minimum temperature while changes in temperature variability from daily to sub-seasonal time scales play a minor role. The future changes in temperature extremes over China, being consistent with the rise in seasonal temperature, are partly due to the increase in surface downward clear sky longwave radiation through the increased greenhouse gas concentrations and enhanced water vapor in the atmosphere, and partly due to the increase in net surface shortwave radiation as a result of the decreased aerosol emissions over Asia via aerosol-radiation interactions. Moreover, the seasonal mean surface warming can further be amplified with positive feedbacks by reducing the cloud cover, leading to positive changes in shortwave radiative effect through aerosol-cloud interactions and surface-atmosphere feedbacks during summer, and by positive changes in surface clear sky shortwave radiation through snow-albedo feedbacks over northern China and southwestern China during winter.
      PubDate: 2021-03-01
  • Role of Ural blocking in Arctic sea ice loss and its connection with
           Arctic warming in winter
    • Abstract: Ural blocking (UB) is suggested as one of the contributors to winter sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS). This study compares UB with Arctic warming (AW) in order to delineate the role of UB on winter sea ice loss and its potential link with AW. A detailed comparison reveals that UB and AW are partly linked on sub-seasonal scales via a two-way interaction; circulation produced by AW affects UB and advection induced by UB affects temperature in AW. On the other hand, the long-term impacts of AW and UB on the sea ice concentration in the BKS are distinct. In AW, strong turbulent flux from the sea surface warms the lower troposphere, increases downward longwave radiation, and broadens the open sea surface. This feedback process explains the substantial sea ice reduction observed in the BKS in association with long-term accelerating trend. Patterns of turbulent flux, net evaporation, and net longwave radiation at surface associated with UB are of opposite signs to those associated with AW, which implies that moisture and heat flux is suppressed as warm and moist air is advected from mid-latitudes. As a result, vertical feedback process is hindered under UB. The qualitative and quantitative differences arise in terms of their impacts on sea ice concentrations in the BKS, because strong turbulent flux from the open sea surface is a main driving force in AW whereas heat and moisture advection is a main forcing in UB.
      PubDate: 2021-03-01
School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences
Heriot-Watt University
Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK
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