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  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 112 journals)
Showing 1 - 36 of 36 Journals sorted alphabetically
Acta Meteorologica Sinica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 43)
Advances in Climate Change Research     Open Access   (Followers: 31)
Advances in Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 24)
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Aeolian Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
American Journal of Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 31)
Atmósfera     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Atmosphere     Open Access   (Followers: 26)
Atmosphere-Ocean     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 15)
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 11)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)     Open Access   (Followers: 48)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions (ACPD)     Open Access   (Followers: 15)
Atmospheric Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 73)
Atmospheric Environment : X     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Atmospheric Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 69)
Atmospheric Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 36)
Boundary-Layer Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 31)
Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society     Open Access   (Followers: 51)
Carbon Balance and Management     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Change and Adaptation in Socio-Ecological Systems     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Ciencia, Ambiente y Clima     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Climate and Energy     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Climate Change Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 26)
Climate Change Research Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Climate Change Responses     Open Access   (Followers: 12)
Climate Dynamics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44)
Climate of the Past (CP)     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Climate of the Past Discussions (CPD)     Open Access  
Climate Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44)
Climate Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Climate Resilience and Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 13)
Climate Risk Management     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Climate Services     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Climate Summary of South Africa     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Climatic Change     Open Access   (Followers: 66)
Current Climate Change Reports     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Developments in Atmospheric Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 28)
Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
Earth Perspectives - Transdisciplinarity Enabled     Open Access  
Economics of Disasters and Climate Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Energy & Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 24)
Environmental and Climate Technologies     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Environmental Dynamics and Global Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
Frontiers in Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
GeoHazards     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Global Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 17)
International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 22)
International Journal of Biometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22)
International Journal of Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 31)
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
International Journal of Image and Data Fusion     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Agricultural Meteorology     Open Access  
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 35)
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 34)
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 198)
Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 21)
Journal of Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 54)
Journal of Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Climatology     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 29)
Journal of Hydrometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Meteorological Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Meteorology and Climate Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 14)
Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 27)
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 81)
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan     Partially Free   (Followers: 6)
Journal of Weather Modification     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Large Marine Ecosystems     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Mediterranean Marine Science     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Meteorologica     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Meteorological Applications     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Meteorological Monographs     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Meteorologische Zeitschrift     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 26)
Mètode Science Studies Journal : Annual Review     Open Access  
Michigan Journal of Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Monthly Weather Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 34)
Nature Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 134)
Nature Reports Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 37)
Nīvār     Open Access  
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Open Atmospheric Science Journal     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Open Journal of Modern Hydrology     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia     Open Access  
Revista Iberoamericana de Bioeconomía y Cambio Climático     Open Access  
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Space Weather     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 25)
Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica     Hybrid Journal  
Tellus A     Open Access   (Followers: 22)
Tellus B     Open Access   (Followers: 21)
The Cryosphere (TC)     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
The Cryosphere Discussions (TCD)     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 27)
Theoretical and Applied Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Urban Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Weather     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
Weather and Climate Dynamics     Open Access  
Weather and Climate Extremes     Open Access   (Followers: 16)
Weather and Forecasting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
Weatherwise     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
气候与环境研究     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)

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Climate Dynamics
Journal Prestige (SJR): 2.445
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
Number of Followers: 44  
 
  Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 1432-0894 - ISSN (Online) 0930-7575
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2656 journals]
  • Correction to: A low order dynamical model for runoff predictability
    • Abstract: A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05775-z
      PubDate: 2021-05-06
       
  • A perturbed parameter ensemble of HadGEM3-GC3.05 coupled model
           projections: part 1: selecting the parameter combinations
    • Abstract: This is the first of two papers that describe the generation of a 25-member perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of high-resolution, global coupled simulations for the period 1900–2100, using CMIP5 historical and RCP8.5 emissions. Fifteen of these 25 coupled simulations now form a subset of the global projections provided for the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18). This first paper describes the selection of 25 variants (combinations of 47 parameters) using a set of cheap, coarser-resolution atmosphere-only simulations from a large sample of nearly 3000 variants. Retrospective 5-day weather forecasts run at climate resolution, and simulations of 2004–2009 with prescribed SST and sea ice are evaluated to filter out poor performance. We opted for a single design choice and sensitivity tests were done after the PPE was generated to demonstrate the effect of design choices on the filtering. Given our choice, only 38 of the parameter combinations were found to have acceptable performance at this stage. Idealised atmosphere-only simulations were then used to select the subset of 25 members that were as diverse as possible in terms of their CO2 and aerosol forcing, and their response to warmer SSTs. Using our parallel set of atmosphere-only and coupled PPEs (the latter from paper 2), we show that local biases in the atmosphere-only experiments are generally informative about the biases in the coupled PPE. Biases in radiative fluxes and cloud amounts are strongly informative for most regions, whereas this is only true for a smaller fraction of the globe for precipitation and dynamical variables. Therefore, the cheap experiments are an affordable way to search for promising parameter combinations but have limitations.
      PubDate: 2021-05-06
       
  • A perturbed parameter ensemble of HadGEM3-GC3.05 coupled model
           projections: part 2: global performance and future changes
    • Abstract: This paper provides a quantitative assessment of large-scale features in a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of Met Office Unified Model HadGEM-GC3.05 in coupled global historical and future simulations. The main motivation for the simulations is to provide a major component of the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), but they will also be used to make worldwide projections and inform future model development. Initially, a 25-member PPE, with 25 different parameter combinations, was simulated. Five members were subsequently dropped because either their simulated climate was unrealistically cool by 1970 or they suffered from numerical instabilities. The remaining 20 members were evaluated after completing the historical phase (1900–2005) against 13 separately selected Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and five more members were dropped. The final product is a combined projection system of 15 PPE members and 13 CMIP5 models, which has a number of benefits. In particular, the range of outcomes available from the combined set of 28 is often larger than from either of the two constituent ensembles, thus providing users with a more complete picture of plausible impacts. Here we mainly describe the evaluation process of the 20 PPE members. We evaluate biases in a number of important properties of the global coupled system, including assessment of climatological averages, coupled modes of internal variability and historical and future changes. The parameter combinations yielded plausible yet diverse atmosphere and ocean model behaviours. The range of global temperature changes is narrow, largely driven by use of different CO2 pathways. The range of global warming is seemingly not linked to range of feedbacks estimated from atmosphere-only runs, though we caution that the range of the latter is narrow relative to CMIP5, and therefore this result is not unexpected. This is the second of two papers describing the generation of the PPE for UKCP18 projections. Part 1 (Sexton et al. 2021) describes the selection of 25 parameter combinations of 47 atmosphere and land surface parameters, using a set of cheap atmosphere-only runs at a coarser resolution from nearly 3000 samples of parameter space.
      PubDate: 2021-05-06
       
  • Effects of cumulus parameterization and land-surface hydrology schemes on
           Tibetan Plateau climate simulation during the wet season: insights from
           the RegCM4 model
    • Abstract: Dynamical downscaling generally performs poorly on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), due to the region’s complex topography and several aspects of model physics, especially convection and land surface processes. This study investigated the effects of the cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS) and land-surface hydrology scheme (LSHS) on TP climate simulation during the wet season using the RegCM4 regional climate model. To address these issues and seek an optimal simulation, we conducted four experiments at a 20 km resolution using various combinations of two CPSs (Grell and MIT-Emanuel), two LSHSs (the default TOPMODEL [TOP], and Variable Infiltration Capacity [VIC]). The simulations in terms of 2-m air temperature, precipitation (including large-scale precipitation [LSP] and convective precipitation [CP]), surface energy-water balance, as well as atmospheric moisture flux transport and vertical motion were compared with surface and satellite-based observations as well as the ERA5 reanalysis dataset for the period 2006–2016. The results revealed that the model using the Grell and TOP schemes better reproduced air temperature but with a warm bias, part of which could be significantly decreased by the MIT scheme. All schemes simulated a reasonable spatial distribution of precipitation, with the best performance in the experiment using the MIT and VIC schemes. Excessive precipitation was produced by the Grell scheme, mainly due to overestimated LSP, while the MIT scheme largely reduced the overestimation, and the simulated contribution of CP to total precipitation was in close agreement with the ERA5 data. The RegCM4 model satisfactorily captured diurnal cycles of precipitation amount and frequency, although there remained some differences in phase and magnitude, which were mainly caused by the CPSs. Relative to the Grell scheme, the MIT scheme yielded a weaker surface heating by reducing net radiation fluxes and the Bowen ratio. Consequently, anomalous moisture flux transport was substantially reduced over the southeastern TP, leading to a decrease in precipitation. The VIC scheme could also help decrease the wet bias by reducing surface heating. Further analysis indicated that the high CP in the MIT simulations could be attributed to destabilization in the low and mid-troposphere, while the VIC scheme tended to inhibit shallow convection, thereby decreasing CP. This study’s results also suggest that CPS interacts with LSHS to affect the simulated climate over the TP.
      PubDate: 2021-05-05
       
  • Recent weakening in the winter ENSO teleconnection over the North
           Atlantic-European region
    • Abstract: New observational evidence for variability of the atmospheric response to wintertime El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found. Using different approaches and datasets, a weakening in the recent ENSO teleconnection over the North Atlantic-European (NAE) region is demonstrated. Changes in both pattern and strength of the teleconnection indicate a turning point in the 1970s with a shift from a response resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to an anomaly pattern orthogonal to NAO with very weak or statistically non-significant values; and to nearly non-existent teleconnection in the most recent decades. Results shows the importance of the background sea surface temperature (SST) state and sea-ice climatology having opposite effects in modulating the ENSO-NAE teleconnection. As indicated with targeted simulations, the recent change in the SST climatology in the Atlantic and Arctic has contributed to the weakening of the ENSO effect. The findings of this study can have implications on our understanding of modulations of ENSO teleconnections and ENSO as a source of predictability in the NAE sector.
      PubDate: 2021-05-04
       
  • El Niño teleconnection to the Euro-Mediterranean late-winter: the role of
           extratropical Pacific modulation
    • Abstract: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the major driver of interannual climate variability at global scale. Observational and model-based studies have fostered a long-standing debate on the shape and intensity of the ENSO influence over the Euro-Mediterranean sector. Indeed, the detection of this signal is strongly affected by the large internal variability that characterizes the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic–European (NAE) region. This study explores if and how the low-frequency variability of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) may impact the El Niño-NAE teleconnection in late winter, which consists of a dipolar pattern between middle and high latitudes. A set of idealized atmosphere-only experiments, prescribing different phases of the anomalous SST linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) superimposed onto an El Niño-like forcing in the tropical Pacific, has been performed in a multi-model framework, in order to assess the potential modulation of the positive ENSO signal. The modelling results suggest, in agreement with observational estimates, that the PDO negative phase (PDO−) may enhance the amplitude of the El Niño-NAE teleconnection, while the dynamics involved appear to be unaltered. On the other hand, the modulating role of the PDO positive phase (PDO+) is not reliable across models. This finding is consistent with the atmospheric response to the PDO itself, which is robust and statistically significant only for PDO−. Its modulation seems to rely on the enhanced meridional SST gradient and the related turbulent heat-flux released along the Kuroshio–Oyashio extension. PDO− weakens the North Pacific jet, whereby favoring more poleward propagation of wave activity, strengthening the El Niño-forced Rossby wave-train. These results imply that there might be conditional predictability for the interannual Euro-Mediterranean climate variability depending on the background state.
      PubDate: 2021-05-03
       
  • Megadroughts and pluvials in southwest Australia: 1350–2017 CE
    • Abstract: Declining winter rainfall coupled with recent prolonged drought poses significant risks to water resources and agriculture across southern Australia. While rainfall declines over recent decades are largely consistent with modelled climate change scenarios, particularly for southwest Australia, the significance of these declines is yet to be assessed within the context of long-term hydroclimatic variability. Here, we present a new 668-year (1350–2017 CE) tree-ring reconstruction of autumn–winter rainfall over inland southwest Australia. This record reveals that a recent decline in rainfall over inland southwest Australia (since 2000 CE) is not unusual in terms of either magnitude or duration relative to rainfall variability over the last seven centuries. Drought periods of greater magnitude and duration than those in the instrumental record occurred prior to 1900 CE, including two ‘megadroughts’ of > 30 years duration in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. By contrast, the wettest > decadal periods of the last seven centuries occurred after 1900 CE, making the twentieth century the wettest of the last seven centuries. We conclude that the instrumental rainfall record (since ~ 1900 CE) does not capture the full scale of natural hydroclimatic variability for inland southwest Australia and that the risk of prolonged droughts in the region is likely much higher than currently estimated.
      PubDate: 2021-05-02
       
  • Correction to: The role of transient eddies and diabatic heating in the
           maintenance of European heat waves: a nonlinear quasi-stationary wave
           perspective
    • Abstract: A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05704-0
      PubDate: 2021-05-01
       
  • Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation and regression approach guided by El
           Niño–Southern Oscillation to model the tropical cyclone occurrence over
           the Bay of Bengal
    • Abstract: Tropical cyclone (TC) is one of the most devastating weather systems that causes enormous loss of life and property in the coastal regions of Bay of Bengal (BoB). Statistical forecasting of TC occurrence can help decision-makers and inhabitants in shoreline zones to take necessary planning and actions in advance. In this study, we have investigated the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the frequency of TC over the BoB by using 100 years TC and Southern Oscillation Index data. The frequency of TC is approximated through observation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Two-sample Student’s t test has been applied for examining the statistical significance where the results are significant at 5% level for all cyclonic disturbances. The monthly and seasonal distribution show this feature more distinctly. The total annual frequency of depressions and cyclonic storms in El Niño and La Niña conditions does not differ much, but the monthly/seasonal distribution shows high differences for certain months and seasons. The simulated frequency of TC landfall using MCMC matches well with the observation. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a case study in BoB rim countries-Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Myanmar. Poisson and Bayesian regression have also been used to predict the probabilities of TC frequency over the BoB. Both the regression approaches show 10 and 32% improvement than climatology for the forecast and cross-validation skill respectively. We have also analyzed TC impact over Bangladesh as a case study. Possible links of the variation of TC activities with the largescale geographical distribution of sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, vorticity, moisture and relative humidity are also explored.
      PubDate: 2021-05-01
       
  • Impact of tibetan plateau snow cover on tropical cyclogenesis via the
           Madden–Julian oscillation during the following boreal summer
    • Abstract: This study investigates the role of the interannual variation of boreal winter (December–February) snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TPSC) in modulating the relationship between the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the following boreal summer (June–October). During the boreal summer following a high snow cover anomaly (SCA), MJO-associated convection tends to be confined to the west of 140 °E, coinciding with more frequent tropical cyclone (TC) activity in this region. By contrast, there tends to be stronger MJO-associated convection extending farther east during years following low SCA. The MJO-associated convection extends to ~ 160 °E over the WNP basin with a peak around 140 °E. Thus, more TCs form farther east in the WNP in these years. We use composite analyses of large-scale environmental factors to demonstrate that low-level relative vorticity is one of the most important factors in controlling TCs in response to the change of MJO-associated convection between years with high SCA and low SCA. Meanwhile, eddy kinetic energy variations associated with the MJO are consistent with changes in tropical cyclogenesis over the WNP basin between years with high and low SCA. The Asian summer monsoon plays an important role in linking prior winter TPSC to MJO activity in the following summer. During high-SCA years, increased snow cover results in positive soil moisture anomalies and cooling over the Tibetan Plateau, thus weakening the following summer Asian monsoon and weakening associated water vapor advection, while the opposite chain of events occurs in low-SCA years. These changes in high-SCA years are favorable for MJO propagation and are unfavorable for MJO propagation in low-SCA years. Meanwhile, the interannual variation of SCA exerts a significant impact on the upper-tropospheric circulation and thus changes in vertical wind shear. During high-SCA years, there are anomalous upper-level easterlies in the Indian Ocean and upper-level westerlies in the Pacific Ocean, which result in anomalous easterly wind shear in the Indian Ocean and anomalous westerly shear in the Pacific Ocean. The opposite shear pattern arises in low-SCA years. In addition to changes in wind shear, the background vertical motion associated with changes in TPSC may also be partly responsible for changes in MJO activity.
      PubDate: 2021-05-01
       
  • Formation of the northern East Asian low: role of diabatic heating
    • Abstract: The northern East Asian low (NEAL), characterized by a mid-latitude closed low (or trough) in the lower troposphere, is an important component of the East Asian summer monsoon system. This study investigates formation mechanism of the summer NEAL, with emphasis on the roles of diabatic heating and transient eddy forcing, using a linear baroclinic model (LBM) with prescribed forcing derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset during the 1979–2010 period. The LBM simulations show that the formation of NEAL is induced by the diabatic heating, and the effect of transient eddy forcing is negligible. Further investigation indicates that the diabatic heating over northern East Asia (NEA) is the key factor for the NEAL’s formation, in which the latent heating and radiative cooling in concert to play a major role and the vertical diffusion sensible heating plays a secondary role. In response to the NEA diabatic heating (latent and sensible heating), a local northerly is induced that advects cold air to partially balance the diabatic heat source and forms a low to the east. On the other hand, the radiative cooling induces a southerly anomaly over NEA, shaping the position and intensity of the low induced by the latent and sensible heating. The total effect of the diabatic heating and radiative cooling causes a closed NEAL. Results are similar for the NEAL’s formation in June, July, and August, respectively. Moreover, we further investigate sub-seasonal change of the NEAL in summer. The weakened intensity of the NEAL in August, relative to that in June and July, is contributed to mainly by the enhanced offset effect of the radiative cooling over NEA and partially by the weakened impact of the latent and diffusion sensible heating.
      PubDate: 2021-05-01
       
  • Cool season precipitation projections for California and the Western
           United States in NA-CORDEX models
    • Abstract: Understanding future precipitation changes is critical for water supply and flood risk applications in the western United States. The North American COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (NA-CORDEX) matrix of global and regional climate models at multiple resolutions (~ 50-km and 25-km grid spacings) is used to evaluate mean monthly precipitation, extreme daily precipitation, and snow water equivalent (SWE) over the western United States, with a sub-regional focus on California. Results indicate significant model spread in mean monthly precipitation in several key water-sensitive areas in both historical and future projections, but suggest model agreement on increasing daily extreme precipitation magnitudes, decreasing seasonal snowpack, and a shortening of the wet season in California in particular. While the beginning and end of the California cool season are projected to dry according to most models, the core of the cool season (December, January, February) shows an overall wetter projected change pattern. Daily cool-season precipitation extremes generally increase for most models, particularly in California in the mid-winter months. Finally, a marked projected decrease in future seasonal SWE is found across all models, accompanied by earlier dates of maximum seasonal SWE, and thus a shortening of the period of snow cover as well. Results are discussed in the context of how the diverse model membership and variable resolutions offered by the NA-CORDEX ensemble can be best leveraged by stakeholders faced with future water planning challenges.
      PubDate: 2021-05-01
       
  • The impact of snow loss and soil moisture on convective precipitation over
           the Rocky Mountains under climate warming
    • Abstract: Warm season moist diurnal convection can be particularly sensitive to changes in land surface characteristics such as snow cover and soil moisture. Over regions of mountainous terrain, climate change is expected to reduce snow cover along the low-elevation seasonal snowpack margin. These snow reductions alter surface albedo and soil moisture content, leading to changes in surface fluxes and alterations in mesoscale orographic circulations that act to transport moisture and provide ascent. A set of convection-permitting regional climate simulations centered on the Rocky Mountains of Colorado are conducted from April through July across a period of 12 years (2002–2013). These include a reanalysis forced control run (CTR), a pseudo global warming run (PGW), and an additional altered land surface run (DSURF) used to isolate the effects of the snow albedo and soil moisture changes on orographic convection. Over the mountains, daytime hourly precipitation accumulation (0900–1800 MST) decreased in PGW by an average of 4.2% while precipitation in DSURF increased by 12.5%. On days with weak synoptic forcing, the PGW response more closely follow the DSURF response with daytime hourly increases averaging 29.7% for PGW and 28.7% for DSURF. For PGW, hourly daytime precipitation intensity increases of up to 82% overcome reductions in precipitation frequency to produce higher accumulations. DSURF shows smaller increases in intensity of up to 23% and broad increases in daytime frequency indicating that surface changes act to moderate reductions in the frequency of convective precipitation. Reduced snow cover contributes to this convective response by increasing convective instability and boundary layer moisture and decreasing lifting condensation level over the high terrain. Alterations in orographic thermal circulations contribute to this response by converging moisture over the high terrain and enhancing mesoscale ascent.
      PubDate: 2021-05-01
       
  • Synoptic forcing associated with extreme precipitation events over
           Southeastern South America as depicted by a CORDEX FPS set of
           convection-permitting RCMs
    • Abstract: Southeastern South America (SESA) stands out as a remarkable region of occurrence of deep convection. This is mainly due to the proximity of the Andes, which eventually determine their magnitude and intensity. In this work, we used a set of convection-permitting (4 km horizontal resolution) regional climate models to explore their ability to reproduce the synoptic forcings that trigger deep convection over La Plata basin. The study considered simulating three extreme convective precipitation events in two different timescales. On one hand, a short-term simulation initiated a few hours before the onset of each event, spanning 3–4 days. On the other hand, as regional climate modelling, a 6-month simulation that includes the three selected events. In contrast to parameterized convection, the convection-permitting resolutions not only intensified the events, but also modified the location of the maximum precipitation by modulating the low-level atmospheric circulation. Vertically integrated moisture flux convergence emerged as a noticeable footprint of deep moist convection, regardless of the model and timescale. The performance of the models in reproducing the observed precipitation was also quantitatively analyzed. The skill depends on the spatial scale. The results were case-dependent in the short-term simulations. However, an analysis over multiple events in the long-term simulations revealed that, in general, convection-permitting resolutions better capture the spatial distribution of the extreme precipitation in SESA. The study comprises the first multi-model ensemble of convection-permitting simulations over the region, a seed for a further analysis with a more complete ensemble to better understand the results presented here.
      PubDate: 2021-05-01
       
  • Impact of climate change on intense Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones of the
           post-monsoon season: a pseudo global warming approach
    • Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall over India’s east coast are responsible for significant loss of life along affected coastlines. TCs forming over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region in October, November, and December have, in the past, intensified significantly at the time of landfall. The effects of climate change on TCs of different strengths and their characteristics such as track, intensity, precipitation, and convective available potential energy over the BoB region have not been well studied. This study explores the effects of climate change on two TCs of very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) category (TC Vardah and TC Madi), and two other TCs of extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) category (TC Hudhud and TC Phailin) formed over BoB, both in the short term (2035) and long term (2075). The high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the TCs under current and future climate conditions. The simulated TC track and intensity in the current climate agree well with the observations. To explore the impacts of climate change on TCs, the mean climate change signal, computed from future projections of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) in different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, is added to current climate conditions by using the pseudo global warming method. Results show a climate change-related reduction in TC translation speed, deepening of TC core, increased maximum surface wind, and increased precipitation over land in future RCP (4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios. The TCs in future RCP scenarios are seen to be more intensified compared to current climate simulations. Results demonstrate that all VSCS and ESCS category TCs considered in this study are likely to further intensify to the next higher category level with respect to their current classification, particularly in the far future RCP 6.0 and in the far future RCP 8.5 scenarios. The cyclone damage potential index of TC Vardah, TC Hudhud, and TC Phailin is projected to increase in a future warming climate.
      PubDate: 2021-05-01
       
  • The relative roles of decadal climate variations and changes in the ocean
           observing system on seasonal prediction skill of tropical Pacific SST
    • Abstract: In this study, we examined the temporal variations of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction skill during 1958–2016 in the context of the evolution in the tropical Pacific subsurface ocean observing system. To examine the temporal variations of the seasonal prediction skill, spatial correlation skill (SCS) of the predicted SST anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific Ocean within 10oS-10oN and temporal correlation skill (TCS) of the area-averaged SSTA throughout the same basin for the four periods of 1958–1978, 1979–1994, 1995–2005 and 2006–2016 were evaluated. These periods correspond to low amount, first increase, medium amount and second increase of the subsurface ocean temperature observations. Our results show that the influence of the observing system is detectable in the skill increase—both in SCS and TCS metrics—during the period 1995–2005. However, the impact of the subsurface ocean observing system is difficult to quantify in the prediction skill metrics during 2006–2016. It is shown that SCS is determined to a large extent by the magnitude of the observed SSTA in the target month. There is visible skill increase in the TCS before and after 1979, but this appears to be the result of variations in the properties of the verifying SST. Thus, potential impacts of the observing system are masked by climate variations of SST at decadal time scales, which may be real or result of variations in the SST observing system. In particular, the multidecadal modulations of the tropical Pacific SST associated with the climate shifts in the late 1970s and the early 2000s have more significant influence on prediction skill than the changes in observing system.
      PubDate: 2021-05-01
       
  • Ensemble projection of city-level temperature extremes with stepwise
           cluster analysis
    • Abstract: Climate change can cause property damage and deaths in cities. City-scale climate projections are essential for making informed decisions towards climate change mitigation and adaptation at city levels. This study aims at developing ensemble projections of temperature extremes at the city-level and quantifying the contributions of various factors to the resulting uncertainty of the ensemble projections. The city of Toronto will be used here as an example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed research framework. In particular, the stepwise cluster analysis (SCA) model will be used to perform climate downscaling to three GCM datasets (GFDL, IPSL, and MPI) under three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in order to generate city-level climate projections for the city of Toronto. The SCA model is demonstrated to be capable of capturing the inter- and intra-annual variations of the daily maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures in the studied city. The results suggest that mean temperatures in Toronto are projected to increase at the rate of 0.15 and 0.5 °C/decade under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while no significant warming trend is detected for RCP2.6. In terms of temperature extremes, extreme warm events are projected to increase while extreme cold events decrease under all emission scenarios. The decrease in the heating demand is two to four times larger than the increase in the cooling demand, indicating a decrease in the city’s total energy use. The projected warming might be beneficial for the urban growers because of the significant increases in the growing season length and growing degree days; however, the residents of the city of Toronto are likely to experience simultaneous increases in the intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwave events in future summers. Because of the warming, coldwave events in winters are likely to become less frequent and be shorter in duration, but their intensity is expected to increase significantly. Through decomposition of the resulting uncertainty of the ensemble projections, emission scenario is found to be the dominant factor for the uncertainty associated with urban climate projection.
      PubDate: 2021-05-01
       
  • Fast and slow responses of the Subantarctic Mode Water in the South Indian
           Ocean to global warming in CMIP5 extended RCP4.5 simulations
    • Abstract: The present study examines the long-term evolution of the Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) in the south Indian Ocean (SIO) based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) extended simulations through 2300 under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5). The SAMW in the SIO shrinks and thins rapidly during the fast radiative forcing increasing period between 2000 and 2100. After 2100, when the radiative forcing stabilizes, the SAMW expands and thickens slowly. The response of SAMW is dependent both on the evolution of surface buoyancy forcing and overlying westerly wind stress. During year 2000–2100, the surface heat flux dominates the net buoyancy gain over the SAMW formation region, whereas the enhanced westerly wind contributes to a lesser extent due to its poleward shift. As the radiative forcing increases rapidly from 2000 to 2100, the buoyancy gain over the SAMW formation region results in a fast shoaling mixed layer and a reduction in the SAMW subduction rate. The surface intensified warming enhances stratification and reduces the SAMW that is quantified by the volume of low potential vorticity (PV) water. Consequently, the SAMW shrinks and thins fastly. When the radiative forcing stabilizes after 2100, the warming is greater in the subsurface than the surface, and the associated slow destratification gradually increases the low PV water volume. Hence, the SAMW expands and thickens slowly. The distinct fast and slow responses of SAMW have implications for the heat uptake and circulation of the SIO.
      PubDate: 2021-05-01
       
  • Decadal changes of East Asian jet streams and their relationship with the
           Mid-high Latitude Circulations
    • Abstract: This study investigates the concurrent location and intensity changes of the East Asian polar front jet (EAPJ) and subtropical jet (EASJ) on decadal time scale using NCEP/NCAR, ERA5 and JRA-55 reanalysis data, along with the relationship with the mid-high latitude circulation changes. Results show that EAPJ was intensified accompanied by the weakening of EASJ after 1985, and shifted equatorward in conjunction with the poleward migration of EASJ after 1999. The three-dimensional structures of the atmospheric circulation over East Asia exhibited distinct changes corresponding to the two regime shifts. Dipole anomalous sea level pressure (SLP) between the Arctic and the North Pacific, a NAM-like geopotential height anomalous pattern, and a deepened polar vortex occurred after 1985, accompanied with the out-of-phase intensity changes of the two jets. In comparison, dipole SLP anomalies between the mid-high latitudes and Tibetan Plateau, a zonal wave train over Eurasia accompanied with a meridional wave train over East Asia, and a polar vortex shifting toward the Siberia were observed after 1999, when the two jets approached each other. These circulation changes exerted pronounced effects on the East Asian climate anomalies. After the mid-1980s, the positive SLP anomaly over the northern North Pacific led to decreased land-sea SLP contrast, and the positive mid-tropospheric geopotential height center near Lake Baikal implied weakened East Asian trough (EAT). Such changes favored the warming of southern East Asia and the weakening of the southern mode of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). In contrast, the high latitude positive SLP anomalies denoted enhanced Siberian high (SH) and the East Asian meridional wave train resulted in tilted EAT after the late 1990s, benefitting the cold anomalies over northern Eurasia with the northern mode of EAWM intensified. Possible mechanisms for the decadal changes of the jets are discussed from the perspective of the dynamic forcing of the synoptic-scale transient eddy activities (STEA), and the thermal forcings from the East Asian landmass, the North Pacific sea surface and the Arctic sea ice cover.
      PubDate: 2021-05-01
       
  • Late twentieth century increase in northern Spitsbergen (Svalbard)
           glacier-derived runoff tracked by coralline algal Ba/Ca ratios
    • Abstract: The Arctic cryosphere is changing rapidly due to global warming. Northern Svalbard is a warming hotspot with a temperature rise of ~ 6 °C over the last three decades. Concurrently, modelled data suggest a marked increase in glacier runoff during recent decades in northern Svalbard, and runoff is projected to increase. However, observational data from before anthropogenic influence are sparse and the potential effects on the surface ocean are unclear. Here, we present a 200-year record of Ba/Ca ratios measured in annual increment-forming coralline algae from northern Spitsbergen as a proxy for past glacier-derived meltwater input. Our record shows a significant increasing trend in algal Ba/Ca ratios from the late-1980s onwards matching modelled regional runoff data, suggesting a drastic increase in land-based runoff. The rate of increase is unprecedented during the last two centuries and captures the impact of amplified warming on the coastal surface ocean in the high Arctic. The algal Ba/Ca runoff proxy offers an opportunity to reconstruct past land-based runoff variability in Arctic settings in high resolution, providing important data for validating and improving climate modelling studies.
      PubDate: 2021-05-01
       
 
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