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  Subjects -> METEOROLOGY (Total: 106 journals)
Showing 1 - 36 of 36 Journals sorted by number of followers
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 158)
Nature Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 150)
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 79)
Atmospheric Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 72)
Atmospheric Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 72)
Climatic Change     Open Access   (Followers: 71)
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society     Open Access   (Followers: 62)
Advances in Climate Change Research     Open Access   (Followers: 59)
Journal of Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 55)
Climate Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 53)
Climate Change Economics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 50)
Climate Dynamics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 44)
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 43)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)     Open Access   (Followers: 43)
Weather and Forecasting     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 42)
American Journal of Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 41)
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 40)
Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 39)
Atmospheric Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 39)
Nature Reports Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 39)
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 33)
International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 32)
Atmosphere     Open Access   (Followers: 32)
The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 31)
Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 30)
Boundary-Layer Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29)
Monthly Weather Review     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 29)
International Journal of Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 28)
Space Weather     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 27)
Climate Change Responses     Open Access   (Followers: 27)
Energy & Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 26)
Climate Resilience and Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 26)
Journal of Climate Change     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 25)
International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 24)
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 24)
Environmental Dynamics and Global Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 24)
Advances in Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 23)
Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 23)
Current Climate Change Reports     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22)
Tellus A     Open Access   (Followers: 21)
Tellus B     Open Access   (Followers: 20)
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20)
Journal of Economic Literature     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 19)
Weatherwise     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
Global Meteorology     Open Access   (Followers: 17)
Weather and Climate Extremes     Open Access   (Followers: 17)
Journal of Meteorology and Climate Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 17)
Economics of Disasters and Climate Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 16)
Atmosphere-Ocean     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 15)
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions (ACPD)     Open Access   (Followers: 14)
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Theoretical and Applied Climatology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Climate Risk Management     Open Access   (Followers: 12)
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography     Open Access   (Followers: 11)
Journal of Hydrometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 9)
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters     Open Access   (Followers: 9)
Climate Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
The Cryosphere (TC)     Open Access   (Followers: 8)
Climate and Energy     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8)
Climate of the Past (CP)     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan     Partially Free   (Followers: 7)
Aeolian Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 7)
Journal of Climate Change and Health     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Climate Law     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Carbon Balance and Management     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Open Journal of Modern Hydrology     Open Access   (Followers: 5)
Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Frontiers in Climate     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Open Atmospheric Science Journal     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Climate Services     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Urban Climate     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Oxford Open Climate Change     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Meteorological Applications     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
Meteorologische Zeitschrift     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Acta Meteorologica Sinica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Atmospheric Environment : X     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
International Journal of Image and Data Fusion     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
International Journal of Biometeorology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Climatology     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Journal of Weather Modification     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Environmental and Climate Technologies     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
GeoHazards     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Journal of Meteorological Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Atmósfera     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Meteorologica     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Mediterranean Marine Science     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
气候与环境研究     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Weather and Climate Dynamics     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Climate of the Past Discussions (CPD)     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Meteorological Monographs     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Ciencia, Ambiente y Clima     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Nīvār     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Revista Iberoamericana de Bioeconomía y Cambio Climático     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Michigan Journal of Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Earth Perspectives - Transdisciplinarity Enabled     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Journal of Agricultural Meteorology     Open Access  
Mètode Science Studies Journal : Annual Review     Open Access  

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Journal Cover
Climate Dynamics
Journal Prestige (SJR): 2.445
Citation Impact (citeScore): 4
Number of Followers: 44  
 
  Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 1432-0894 - ISSN (Online) 0930-7575
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2469 journals]
  • Correction to: Future precipitation changes in three key sub-regions of
           East Asia: the roles of thermodynamics and dynamics

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      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Correction to: Erratic Asian summer monsoon 2020: COVID-19 lockdown
           initiatives possible cause for these episodes'

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      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Minor impacts of major volcanic eruptions on hurricanes in
           dynamically-downscaled last millennium simulations

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      Abstract: Abstract The effects of volcanic eruptions on hurricane statistics are examined using two long simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble (LME). The first is an unforced control simulation, wherein all boundary conditions were held constant at their 850 CE values (LMEcontrol). The second is a “fully forced” simulation with time evolving radiative changes from volcanic, solar, and land use changes from 850 CE through present (LMEforced). Large tropical volcanic eruptions produce the greatest change in radiative forcing during this time period, which comprise the focus of this study. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale 150 control years of LMEcontrol and an additional 84 years of LMEforced for all mid-latitude volcanic eruptions between 1100 and 1850 CE. This time period was selected based on computational considerations. For each eruption, 2 years are dynamically downscaled. 23 of these volcanic eruptions are in the Northern Hemisphere and 19 are in the Southern Hemisphere. The effectiveness of the downscaling methodology is examined by applying the same downscaling approach to historical ERA-I reanalysis data and comparing the downscaled storm tracks and intensities to the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database. Hurricane statistics are then computed from both the downscaled control and downscaled forced LME simulations. Results suggest moderate effects on hurricanes from the average of all northern hemisphere eruptions, with the largest effects being from the volcanoes with the most aerosol forcing. More specifically, reductions in hurricane frequency, intensity, and lifetime following northern hemisphere eruptions are apparent. Strong evidence is also shown for correlation between eruption strength and changes in these diagnostics. The aggregate effect from both northern and southern hemisphere eruptions is minor. While reductions in frequency, intensity, and lifetime from northern hemisphere eruptions occur, the opposite effect is observed from southern hemisphere eruptions.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Origin and dynamics of global atmospheric wavenumber-4 in the Southern
           mid-latitude during austral summer

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      Abstract: Abstract Using empirical orthogonal function analysis, a stationary atmospheric wavenumber-4 (AW4) pattern is identified in the Southern mid-latitudes during austral summer. The generation mechanism and its linkage to the Southern Hemisphere climate are explored using a linear response model and composite analysis. It is found that AW4 pattern is forced by a Rossby wave source in the upstream region of the upper-tropospheric westerly waveguide. The vortex stretching associated with the anomalous convection over the subtropical western Pacific Ocean (near the New Zealand coast) adjacent to the westerly jet triggers the Rossby wave train around mid-November. This disturbance gets trapped in the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet waveguide and circumnavigates the globe. Around 15–25 days later (in early December), a steady AW4 pattern is established in the Southern mid-latitudes. Further, correlation analysis suggests the AW4 pattern is independent of other natural variabilities such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, and Indian Ocean Dipole. The AW4 pattern is found to influence the rainfall over different parts of South America and Australia by modulating upper-level divergence.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Long-term changes of cross-shelf transports in the Yellow and East China
           Seas under different greenhouse gases emission scenarios

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      Abstract: Abstract The cross-shelf exchange between the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS) with the Kuroshio is important for vorticity, freshwater, and effluence balances of the regional and global oceans, the responses of which to future climate changes are estimated based on Max-Planck coupled model simulations under one historical (20C, 1970–2005) and two representative concentration pathway scenarios of global warming (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from 2006 to 2099. The results of the 20C simulation have shown prominent cross-shelf transports in the YECS, with annual mean outflow (OVT) and inflow (IVT) volume transports across the 100 m isobath of 3.97 Sv and 2.86 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1), respectively. These annual mean OVTs (and their equivalent IVTs) are projected to increase by 0.42 Sv and 0.48 Sv from 2006 to 2099, at rates of 11.0% and 12.8% from the 2006–2016 means, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The maximum rates of increase are found in winter to be at 13.2% and 19.9%, respectively. Analyses suggest that the winter monsoon has a long-term southwesterly change, forcing coastal currents to flow into the Yellow Sea along the China coasts to compensate for the increase of the southeastward surface Ekman transport. Due to increases of the Tsushima Strait and upper-layer Kuroshio transports, both the OVT and IVT across the 200 m isobath have onshore changes, resulting in net onshore transport increments of 0.30 Sv and 0.57 Sv under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The enhanced cross-shelf exchanges under future warming scenarios in the YECS suggest their potential importance in carbon transportation and storage.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Twenty-first century drought analysis across China under climate change

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      Abstract: Abstract Under global warming, according to results obtained from offline drought indices driven by projections of general circulation models (GCMs), future droughts in China will worsen but the results are not consistent. We analyzed changes in droughts covering the entire hydrologic cycle using outputs of GCMs of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios, and compared the results with that of popular, offline drought indices [the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Precipitation Actual Evapotranspiration Index (SPAEI)]. Among meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought indices tested under both SSP scenarios, the results obtained from SPAEI and scPDSI agree better with univariate drought indices than SPEI. scPDSI generally agrees well with agricultural droughts (Standardized Soil Moisture Index with the surface soil moisture content; SSIS). Future droughts estimated using soil moisture analysis are more widespread than that from precipitation and runoff analysis in humid regions of South China by the end of the twenty-first century. In arid northwestern China and Inner Mongolia, drought areas and severity based on scPDSI and SSIS forced with the SSP scenarios show obvious decreasing trends, in contrast to increasing trends projected in South China. Trends projected using SPEI contradict those projected by other drought indices in non-humid regions. Therefore, selecting appropriate drought indices is crucial in project representative future droughts and provides meaningful information needed to achieve effective regional drought mitigation strategies under climate warming impact.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Dynamic and thermodynamic contributions of ENSO to winter precipitation in
           Japan: frequency and precipitation of synoptic weather patterns

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      Abstract: Abstract The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly affects the formation of precipitation anomalies over Japan, with more (less) and less (more) winter precipitation over the Pacific and Sea of Japan during El Niño (La Niña), respectively. In this study, the effect of ENSO on winter precipitation in Japan was investigated using a large ensemble of regional climate simulations that capture the meridional contrast of precipitation anomalies between areas facing the Sea of Japan and the Pacific along the Japanese Archipelago during ENSO. Self-organizing maps (SOMs) of the surface atmospheric circulation were applied to explore the effect of ENSO forcing on weather patterns (WPs) and associated changes in precipitation including snowfall. The results suggest that ENSO-related spatial variations in precipitation can be attributed to differences in WP frequency such as extratropical cyclone events and WP precipitation in the ENSO-modulated seasonal background state. The former and latter can be interpreted as dynamical and thermodynamic effects of ENSO, respectively. Atmospheric circulation analogs reveal that thermodynamic and dynamic effects account for approximately one-third and two-thirds of the precipitation differences between ENSO phases, respectively. ENSO–precipitation relationships in Japan are more pronounced in the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Future trends of arctic surface wind speeds and their relationship with
           sea ice in CMIP5 climate model simulations

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      Abstract: Abstract Recent climate change in the Arctic has been rapid and dramatic, leading to numerous physical and societal consequences. Many studies have investigated these ongoing and projected future changes across a range of climatic variables, but surprisingly little attention has been paid to wind speed, despite its known importance for sea ice motion, ocean wave heights, and coastal erosion. Here we analyzed future trends in Arctic surface wind speed and its relationship with sea ice cover among CMIP5 global climate models. There is a strong anticorrelation between climatological sea ice concentration and wind speed in the early 21st-century reference climate, and the vast majority of models simulate widespread future strengthening of surface winds over the Arctic Ocean (annual multi-model mean trend of up to 0.8 m s−1 or 13%). Nearly all models produce an inverse relationship between projected changes in sea ice cover and wind speed, such that grid cells with virtually total ice loss almost always experience stronger winds. Consistent with the largest regional ice losses during autumn and winter, the greatest increases in future wind speeds are expected during these two seasons, with localized strengthening up to 23%. As in other studies, stronger surface winds cannot be attributed to tighter pressure gradients but rather to some combination of weakened atmospheric stability and reduced surface roughness as the surface warms and melts. The intermodel spread of wind speed changes, as expressed by the two most contrasting model results, appears to stem from differences in the treatment of surface roughness.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Future precipitation changes in three key sub-regions of East Asia: the
           roles of thermodynamics and dynamics

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      Abstract: Abstract Previous studies have projected an increase in future summer precipitation across East Asia (EA). This study investigates the relative contributions of thermodynamic and dynamic components to future precipitation changes in three key sub-regions of EA where the maximum centers of the historical precipitation are located (the tropical region, East China, and the Japan and Korea sector), and analyzes the causes of the changes in thermodynamic and dynamic components. Outputs from 30 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are used. From these, the five best-performing models for historical summer precipitation climatology for EA are selected. The future summer precipitations in the three sub-regions over the near- to mid-term (2020–2069) and the long-term (2070–2095) are then examined using the multi-model ensemble mean of the five models selected (MMM05). The projections were driven by four combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and forcing levels of the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The results show that long-term precipitations under SSP5-8.5 are greater than those under the other scenarios across all sub-regions. After the 2070s under SSP5-8.5, a marked precipitation intensification is identified in all three sub-regions, but with different rates of increase. The projected precipitation increase is primarily attributed to the thermodynamic component, while the dynamic component related to circulation changes is relatively weak. Further analysis indicates that the pattern of the thermodynamic component in the three sub-regions is dominated by the climatological upward motion, mediated by an increase in moisture.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Intraseasonal transition of Northern Hemisphere planetary waves and the
           underlying mechanism during the abrupt-change period of early summer

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      Abstract: Abstract Northern Hemisphere planetary waves exhibit an abrupt change in early summer and a significant impact on East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Although great achievements have been made toward understanding the characteristics and maintenance of planetary waves during winter and summer, the transition of planetary waves during the abrupt-change period is less well understood. This study aims to assess the relative contribution of harmonic waves to the planetary wave transition and mechanism from the perspective of full nonlinear responses to the mountains of Asia (above 500 m) during May and June, with a primary focus on the largest positive geopotential height anomaly over northeastern Asia. The largest positive geopotential height anomaly over northeastern Asia is primarily contributed by wavelengths of around 7000 km, which corresponds to zonal wavenumber 3. The mid–high latitudes planetary waves mainly consist of wavelengths of around 10,000 km (zonal wavenumber 2, roughly) and 7000 km, which are in-phase (out-of-phase) with each other over the Western (Eastern) Hemisphere. Wavelengths of around 10,000 km weaken and displace eastward, while those of 7000 km magnify and hence contribute to the largest positive geopotential height anomaly over northeastern Asia. The full nonlinear response to the forcing by the mountains of Asia provides a considerable contribution to the largest geopotential height anomaly over northeastern Asia. Such a positive contribution comes mainly from the full nonlinear response to sensible heating associated with the mountains over Asia, which is partially offset by the full nonlinear response to dynamical forcing of the Asian mountains.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Historical changes and projected trends of extreme climate events in
           Xinjiang, China

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      Abstract: Abstract Extreme climate events can cause large risks to ecosystems and human society in a short period. Investigating the changing trends of such events is essential for regional climate risk management. However, there is limited information on the regional assessment of the history and future trends of extreme climate events in Xinjiang, China. This study investigated the historical changes and projected trends of extreme climate events in Xinjiang based on observational data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations. The results showed that the bias correction effectively reduced the bias of the CMIP6 model to the extreme climate indices simulation. During the period 1961–2014, the extreme indices representing warmth showed robust growth, while the extreme indices representing cold showed a robust decline. The intensity and frequency indices of extreme precipitation continued to increase, while consecutive dry days (CDDs) shortened and consecutive wet days (CWDs) lengthened. The changing trend of the extreme temperature indices had strong spatial consistency, while the changing trend of the extreme precipitation indices had obvious spatial heterogeneity. Based on the CMIP6 model simulations, the extreme climate indices in the twenty-first century were projected to continue the changing trend of the historical period (1961–2014). Compared with north Xinjiang (NXJ) and south Xinjiang (SXJ), the cold spell duration index (CSDI), cold nights (TN10p), cold days (TX10p), and extreme precipitation events in the Tianshan Mountains (TSM) were projected to experience stronger changes in the twenty-first century. The response of extreme temperature and extreme precipitation indices to global warming was approximately linear. Compared with SSP585, most extreme climate indices under the SSP245 scenario changed slightly in response to global warming. The superposition of the increase (decrease) in extreme warm (cold) events and the increase in extreme precipitation events will exacerbate the threat of extreme climate events to the agricultural and ecological security of the Xinjiang oasis, especially in the TSM. Given the limited water vapor sources and precipitation and the high rate of evapotranspiration, it is projected that the current situation of water shortages in Xinjiang will not be fundamentally changed.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Surface chlorophyll blooms in the Southern Bay of Bengal during the
           extreme positive Indian Ocean dipole

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      Abstract: Abstract The open ocean region of southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) (~ 5° N–10° N; 87° E–97° E) is characterized as the region of low chlorophyll-a concentration (< 0.1 mg m−3) during winter (December-February). However, the analysis of satellite ocean colour data between 2003 and 2020 shows anomalous high surface chlorophyll concentration (~ 0.35–0.5 mg m−3) in the southern BoB during the winters, followed by the extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events in 2006 (W06-2007) and 2019 (W19–2020). It is found that anomalous upwelling Rossby wave generated remotely through the anomalous easterly wind in the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) during October–November leads to a thin barrier layer (BL), shallow thermocline and nutricline in the southern BoB during W06–2007 and W19–2020. Thin BL, and shallow nutricline, provide a conducive environment for surface chlorophyll enhancement through much easier vertical transport of nutrient-rich water to the near-surface layer by local near-climatological wind-induced vertical mixing during W06–2007 and W19–2020. It is also found that surface chlorophyll bloom was absent in the southern BoB during the winters, followed by the weak pIOD event in 2012, 2015, and 2018. During the winters followed by the weak pIOD events, the westward propagating downwelling Rossby wave generated through the westerly wind, similar to the climatological state, in the EIO during October–November leads to a thick BL, deeper thermocline and nutricline in the southern BoB. Thick BL, and deeper nutricline, provide an unfavourable environment for the vertical transport of nutrient-rich water to the near-surface layers to generate surface chlorophyll bloom during the winters followed by the weak pIOD event.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Interdecadal change in the influence of El Niño in the developing stage
           on the central China summer precipitation

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      Abstract: Abstract The central China summer precipitation (CCSP) is of great importance to the people’s livelihood of this densely populated region, including the agriculture, ecosystems, water resources, economies, and health. Based on the observed precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric reanalysis datasets, the present study investigates the effects of El Niño in the developing stage on the CCSP during 1960–2014. The results show that the CCSP anomalies exhibit significant negative correlations with the El Niño-related SST anomalies in both the simultaneous summer and the following winter, implying that the developing El Niño is important for modulating the CCSP. However, this climatic teleconnection of El Niño is unstable, with an obvious interdecadal change around the late 1980s. Specifically, the negative correlation is not statistically significant in the previous epoch before the late 1980s (1960–1988), but dramatically strengthens since the late 1980s (the post epoch for 1989–2014). Such an interdecadal change is closely associated with the change of the El Niño-related SST anomaly pattern. Compared to the previous epoch, the central Pacific El Niño occurs more frequently in the post epoch, leading to an interdecadal shift of the maximum warm SST anomalies from the eastern Pacific to the central Pacific. The resultant westward extension of the atmospheric circulation responses induces an anomalous low-level cyclone covering South China in the post epoch. It would prevent the southwest monsoon from delivering the moisture to the north and hence reduce the CCSP. While, in the previous epoch, the anomalous cyclone locates east of South China, exerting insignificant influence on the CCSP. This work highlights a strengthening effect of El Niño on the CCSP since the late 1980s, with great implications for the regional seasonal climate prediction.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • A dissection of the topographic effects from Eurasia and North America on
           the isentropic meridional mass circulation in Northern Winter

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      Abstract: Abstract The topographic dynamical effect from Eurasia (EA_Topo) and North America (NA_Topo) on the winter isentropic meridional mass circulation (IMMC) is investigated using the WACCM. The independent effect of EA_Topo and that of NA_Topo, with the former much stronger, are both to strengthen the IMMC that is composed of the lower equatorward cold air branch (CB) and the upper poleward warm air branch in the extratropical tropopshere (WB_TR) and stratosphere (WB_ST). Further investigation of the individual contributions from changes in stationary vs. transient and zonal-mean flow vs. waves reveals that, due to the topography-forced mass redistribution, changes in the low-level meridional pressure gradient force a zonal-mean counter-clockwise/clockwise meridional cell in the southern/northern side of topography. This weakens/strengthens the IMMC south/north of 30° N from the troposphere to lower stratosphere, acting as a dominant contributor to the IMMC changes south of 50° N. Meanwhile, the EA/NA_Topo-forced amplification of stationary waves constructively interacts with those determined by land-sea contrast, making the dominant/minor contributions to the strengthening of CB and WB_TR north of 50° N. The related increase in the upward wave propagation further dominates the WB_ST strengthening in the subpolar region. Meanwhile, transient eddy activities are depressed by EA/NA_Topo along with the weakened background westerly, which partly-offset/dominate-over the contribution from stationary flow in midlatitudes and subpolar region. The coexistence of the other topography (NA/EA_Topo) yields destructive mutual interferrence, which can weaken/offset the independent-EA/NA_Topo-forced meridional mass transport mainly via changing the zonal-mean as well as the downstream wave pattern of mass and meridional wind.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Why is the mid-tropospheric North Atlantic subtropical high much stronger
           than the North Pacific subtropical high in boreal summer'

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      Abstract: Abstract Evidence clearly shows that the mid-tropospheric North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) is much stronger than the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) in summer, but the mechanism is unknown. To understand the mechanism for such zonal difference between the two systems, we perform a series of sensitivity simulations using a community atmosphere model (CAM) and a linear baroclinic model (LBM). The CAM results indicate that the zonal variation of tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), followed by Tibetan Plateau (TP), play leading roles in the formation of these mid-level subtropical high differences through modulating precipitation-related heating sources. The impacts of such heat sources are then investigated using the LBM. The tropical SST variation-related convective heating over the northeastern equatorial Pacific acts to enhance the NASH via exciting an eastward-propagating wave pattern resembling the Pacific-North American teleconnection; the TP-induced large-scale latent heating can also cause the NASH-NPSH difference by exciting a circumglobal teleconnection (CGT)-like wave pattern with westward-propagating part and eastward-propagating part along the westerly jet stream. Thus, their combined effect makes the NASH much stronger than the NPSH in the mid troposphere during summertime.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Long-term changes in the Arabian Peninsula rainfall and their relationship
           with the ENSO signals in the tropical Indo-Pacific

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      Abstract: Abstract We investigate long-term changes in winter rainfall patterns across the Arabian Peninsula (AP) through an analysis of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) gridded rainfall dataset, and long-term rainfall measurements collected at 39 stations distributed across the AP over the period 1951–2010. We reveal a long-term increase in winter rainfall of about 25–30% over the eastern AP and a long-term decrease of about 10–20% in the southern and northeastern AP. A partial correlation analysis suggests that canonical El Niños are associated with significant negative winter rainfall anomalies in the southern and southwest AP during the 1951–1980 period. However, the extent of the El Niño-induced rainfall deficit decreased in subsequent decades. In fact, a significant above-average rainfall occurs in recent decades over Ethiopia, southwest Yemen and central AP during canonical El Niños. Furthermore, positive phases of the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM), which lags the canonical ENSO signal by 3–4 months, are linked with significant below-average winter rainfall over the central and northern AP, but only until the 1970 s. We investigated the teleconnections between the variability of AP winter rainfall and various atmospheric parameters from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) twentieth century (ERA-20C) reanalysis. Notably, sub-tropical westerly jet (STJ) shifted southward and intensified over the AP during recent decades. This shift of the STJ favoured an increase in the frequent passage of transients, which contributed to increased winter rainfall over AP. These events anomalously strengthen the upper level westerlies during El Niño Modokis, adding to the recently-strengthened STJ over the AP, thereby further intensifying the transient activity. This large-scale background change likely weakened the impact of canonical El Niño and the IOBM events.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • CMIP5 model evaluation for extreme ocean wave height responses to ENSO

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      Abstract: Abstract The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts significant influences on extreme significant wave height (SWH) but climate model capabilities in reproducing the observed ENSO impact on SWH have not been evaluated. This study assesses the performances of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models in term of extreme SWH responses to ENSO over the Indo-Pacific Ocean focusing on December-February (DJF). 18 CMIP5 models are evaluated using their historical simulations for 1950–2005 in view of the ERA-20C reanalysis. A non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) analysis is employed to fit DJF maxima of 6-hourly SWHs and obtain the extreme SWH response patterns to ENSO by incorporating Niño3.4 index as a covariate. Results show that CMIP5 models can on average capture the major observed mean and extreme SWH responses to ENSO, including the increased SWH over the northeastern North Pacific (NENP) and the decreased SWH over the Maritime Continent (MC) during El Niño. The inter-model relations between ENSO characteristics and SWH responses are further examined for the two hotspot regions (NENP and MC). It is found that ENSO intensity is a dominant factor determining simulated SWH over the NENP such that models with stronger ENSO simulate stronger SWH responses. In contrast, for the MC, the sea level pressure teleconnection pattern significantly affects the inter-model spread in SWH responses, also explaining the systematic underestimation of SWH responses over the region. Implication is that ENSO intensity and atmospheric teleconnection patterns need to be considered for better simulations and reliable predictions of extreme SWH variability.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies in the Southwestern
           Atlantic Continental Shelf and atmospheric variability on intraseasonal
           timescales

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      Abstract: Abstract The intraseasonal (IS) variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Southwestern Atlantic Continental Shelf (SWACS, 45–33° S—70–50° W), and its relationship with that in the atmosphere, was studied for the austral warm season. SST satellite data (11-km resolution NOAA CoastWatch Program) and data of different atmospheric variables (Reanalysis1 NCEP/NCAR and ERA-Interim) were used. Data were filtered using a 10–90 day filter to isolate the IS variability. A Principal Component analysis was applied then to the filtered SST anomalies (SSTA) and the activity of the leading modes was described through the corresponding temporal series. The first three modes are significant. EOF1 (25.7% of variance) exhibits SSTA of opposite sign to the north/south of 42° S. EOF2 (9.0%) and EOF3 (5.1%) are related with centers of SSTA of opposite sign located off the Uruguayan coast and in the middle shelf. Composites of SSTA and of key atmospheric variables were made considering the days in which the main modes were active. They show that the SSTA described by the three modes are associated with distinctive regional sea level pressure anomalies that, in turn, seem to be related to atmospheric Rossby wave trains extending from the Australia area towards South America. The corresponding atmospheric wave sources vary depending on the mode. These results show, therefore, that the SSTA in the SWACS exhibit significant IS variability that is, in part, locally and remotely influenced by atmospheric anomalies oscillating on similar timescales. These ocean–atmosphere teleconnections could help to improve ocean predictability at those timescales in the future.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Oceanic impacts on 50–80-day intraseasonal oscillation in the
           eastern tropical Indian Ocean

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      Abstract: Abstract In this study, daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) product is used to detect the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). A 50–80-day ISO is identified south of the equator, peaking in boreal winter and propagating eastward. The mechanisms underneath are investigated using observational data and reanalysis products. The results suggest that the 50–80-day atmospheric ISO is enhanced by ocean dynamic processes during December–January. Monsoon transition in October–November causes large wind variability along the equator. Equatorial sea surface height/thermocline anomalies appear off Sumatra due to the accumulative effects of the wind variability, leading the atmospheric 50–80-day ISO by ~ 5–6 weeks. The wind-driven ocean equatorial dynamics are reflected from the Sumatra coast as downwelling oceanic Rossby waves, which deepen the thermocline and contribute to the SST warming in the southeastern TIO, affecting local atmospheric conditions. It offers insights into the role of ocean dynamics in the intensification of 50–80-day atmospheric ISOs over the eastern TIO and explains the seasonal peak of the eastward-propagating ISO during boreal winter. These results have implications for intraseasonal predictability.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
  • Tree-ring oxygen isotopes record a decrease in Amazon dry season rainfall
           over the past 40 years

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      Abstract: Abstract Extant climate observations suggest the dry season over large parts of the Amazon Basin has become longer and drier over recent decades. However, such possible intensification of the Amazon dry season and its underlying causes are still a matter of debate. Here we used oxygen isotope ratios in tree rings (δ18OTR) from six floodplain trees from the western Amazon to assess changes in past climate. Our analysis shows that δ18OTR of these trees is negatively related to inter-annual variability of precipitation during the dry season over large parts of the Amazon Basin, consistent with a Rayleigh rainout model. Furthermore δ18OTR increases by approximately 2‰ over the last four decades (~ 1970–2014) providing evidence of an Amazon drying trend independent from satellite and in situ rainfall observations. Using a Rayleigh rainout framework, we estimate basin-wide dry season rainfall to have decreased by up to 30%. The δ18OTR record further suggests such drying trend may not be unprecedented over the past 80 years. Analysis of δ18OTR with sea surface temperatures indicates a strong role of a warming Tropical North Atlantic Ocean in driving this long-term increase in δ18OTR and decrease in dry season rainfall.
      PubDate: 2022-09-01
       
 
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