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- BEFORE AND AFTER THE COPENHAGEN ACCORD — CHANGES IN THE CHARACTERISTICS
FOR ODA DONORS IN THE MITIGATION SECTOR-
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Authors: NORIKO NAKAUNE, MASAKO IKEGAMI, CHISA UMEMIYA, RYU KOIDE, TAKAKO WAKIYAMA
Abstract: Climate Change Economics, Volume 14, Issue 03, August 2023.
This study analyzes the changes of correlation between donor characteristics and Official Development Assistance in the mitigation sector (mitigation ODA) before and after the 2009 Copenhagen Accord under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The study used multiple regression analysis using panel data of 23 countries over 15 years. The results give evidence that compared with a donor country with the poorest commitment to climate change, donor countries with a stronger commitment to climate change provided a smaller share of mitigation ODA before 2009 and vice versa after that. Furthermore, donor countries with larger GDP per capita and fewer CO2 emissions per capita provided a larger share of mitigation ODA after 2010, compared to before. These findings indicate that the Accord may have induced donors with stronger commitments to climate change, larger GDP per capita, and fewer CO2 emission per capita to contribute a larger share of mitigation ODA.
Citation: Climate Change Economics
PubDate: 2023-04-29T07:00:00Z
DOI: 10.1142/S2010007823500161
Issue No: Vol. 14, No. 03 (2023)
- HOUSEHOLD-SPECIFIC SOCIAL NORMS, THE ELASTICITY OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND, AND
CARBON EMISSION REDUCTIONS IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: EVIDENCE FROM A
NATURAL EXPERIMENT IN RUSSIA-
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Authors: SALIM TURDALIEV
Abstract: Climate Change Economics, Volume 14, Issue 03, August 2023.
In this paper, I estimate the price elasticity of residential electricity demand using household-level panel data for Russia. The study takes advantage of the variation in tariffs across regions and over time, as well as the introduction of increasing block rate (IBR) schemes in a number of regions. I show that in those regions consumers appear to be aware of the block cut-offs, even though the latter are based on the prescribed social norms and are household and dwelling specific, to the point that there are up to a total of 31 different tier cut-offs. Based on these results, I estimate the price elasticity of electricity demand to be around −0.1. I also predict the associated changes in electricity consumption, CO2 emissions, and revenues if similar IBR policies are implemented countrywide.
Citation: Climate Change Economics
PubDate: 2023-04-25T07:00:00Z
DOI: 10.1142/S2010007823500173
Issue No: Vol. 14, No. 03 (2023)
- CLIMATE SENSITIVITY OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND PEAK DEMAND IN INDIA:
CASE OF HETEROGENEOUS CLIMATE ZONES-
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Authors: DIVYA JAIN, GOPAL K. SARANGI, SUKANYA DAS
Abstract: Climate Change Economics, Volume 14, Issue 03, August 2023.
Electricity demand is determined largely by regional climate conditions and seasonal characteristics, apart from a myriad of socio-economic and demographic factors. This paper investigates the climate sensitivity of electricity consumption and peak demand in six energy-intensive Indian states across heterogeneous climate zones using a non-parametric approach known as multivariate adaptive regression splines. The results show the highest temperature sensitivity of cooling electricity consumption in Punjab (8.2%), followed by Rajasthan (3.5%), Madhya Pradesh (3.1%), Tamil Nadu (2.3%), and Uttar Pradesh (1.2%). Among other climate variables, relative humidity has a non-linear impact on electricity consumption in the majority of states. The minimum temperature rise has a stronger influence on peak electricity demand than the maximum temperature in three states. Given that air-conditioning penetration is expected to increase in the future, this state-level analysis will help in developing accurate forecasts for electricity demand and formulating climate adaptation strategies for India.
Citation: Climate Change Economics
PubDate: 2023-03-28T07:00:00Z
DOI: 10.1142/S2010007823500136
Issue No: Vol. 14, No. 03 (2023)
- TOO HOT FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY
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Authors: GANG JIN, YUTING SUN
Abstract: Climate Change Economics, Volume 14, Issue 03, August 2023.
Previous studies have focused on the benefits of adaptation in mitigating the negative effect of climate change on economic production, neglecting that adaptive energy input cannot be directly translated into output, which may be a barrier to sustainable development. Based on panel data from 280 cities in China from 2003 to 2016, we first calculate the energy efficiency as a proxy for sustainable development by using the nonradial directional distance function (NDDF) method. Second, we estimate energy efficiency as a function of temperature shocks, and we use these estimates to predict future potential impacts from climate change. We find three primary results: First, higher temperatures substantially reduce energy efficiency. Second, the heat effect on energy efficiency is homogenous across regions with different climates, suggesting that while adaptations in hot regions can mitigate the harmful effects of heat on output, this mitigation is completely offset by the concomitant increase in energy costs. Third, the energy efficiency would decrease by 2.82% in the medium term (2041–2060) and by 12.02% in the long term (2061–2080), under the assumption that carbon dioxide emissions continue to increase throughout the 21st century. These findings suggest that moderate adaptations to climate change are crucial for sustainable development.
Citation: Climate Change Economics
PubDate: 2023-03-28T07:00:00Z
DOI: 10.1142/S2010007823500148
Issue No: Vol. 14, No. 03 (2023)
- NATURAL DISASTERS AND DEBT FINANCING COSTS
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Authors: BORIS FISERA, ROMAN HORVATH, MARTIN MELECKY
Abstract: Climate Change Economics, Volume 14, Issue 03, August 2023.
Using a comprehensive dataset of 272 large-scale natural disasters in 83 countries from 1986 to 2018, we find that disasters increase government debt financing costs (T-bill rates and 10-year government bond yields) but only in the middle- and low-income countries. This distinct response relative to high-income countries is due to lower levels of credit market depth, of private insurance penetration, and of central bank independence. The results for all natural disasters are driven by biological (epidemic) and climatological disasters — two types of hazards, the frequency and severity of which have been rising.
Citation: Climate Change Economics
PubDate: 2023-03-28T07:00:00Z
DOI: 10.1142/S201000782350015X
Issue No: Vol. 14, No. 03 (2023)
- THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FAMILY FARMING AND
LARGE-SCALE AGRICULTURE IN BRAZIL: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
APPROACH-
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Authors: TARIK MARQUES DO PRADO TANURE, EDSON PAULO DOMINGUES, ALINE DE SOUZA MAGALHÃES
Abstract: Climate Change Economics, Volume 14, Issue 03, August 2023.
This paper analyzes the regional economic impacts of climate change (CC) on the agricultural productivity of crops linked to family farming and large-scale agriculture in Brazil. Variations in agricultural productivity estimated according to CC scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 [IPCC (). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Core Writing Team, RK Pachauri and LA Meyer (eds.), IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151pp.], between 2021 and 2050, were used as inputs in the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model AGRO-BR to project the economic impacts of the phenomenon. The model presents regional configuration composed of the 27 Brazilian Federation Units and 42 agricultural sectors, disaggregated into family farming and large-scale agriculture sectors. The results indicate that the North and Northeast regions would be negatively affected, Midwest and Southeast would suffer moderate impacts, while the South region would benefit mostly. São Paulo, Paraná, and Rio Grande do Sul would show economic growth, softening the negative impacts on national GDP. Regional disparities and the deterioration of food security conditions could increase in Brazil.
Citation: Climate Change Economics
PubDate: 2023-01-13T08:00:00Z
DOI: 10.1142/S2010007823500124
Issue No: Vol. 14, No. 03 (2023)
- DROUGHT AND HOTTER TEMPERATURE IMPACTS ON SUICIDE: EVIDENCE FROM THE
MURRAY–DARLING BASIN, AUSTRALIA-
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Authors: YING Xu, SARAH ANN WHEELER, ALEC ZUO
Abstract: Climate Change Economics, Ahead of Print.
The Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) is Australia’s prime agricultural region, where drought and hotter weather pose a significant threat to rural residents’ mental health – hence increasing their potential suicide risk. We investigate the impact of drought and hotter temperatures on monthly suicide within local areas in the MDB, from 2006–2016. Using Poisson fixed-effects regression modeling, we found that extreme drought and hotter temperatures were associated with increased total suicide rates. The effects of extreme drought and temperature on suicide were heterogeneous across gender and age groups, with younger men more vulnerable. Areas with higher percentages of Indigenous and farmer populations were identified as hot spots, and were vulnerable to increased temperatures and extreme drought. Green space coverage (and to some extent higher incomes) moderated the drought and suicide relationship. Providing targeted interventions in vulnerable groups and hot spot areas is warranted to reduce the suicide effect of climate change.
Citation: Climate Change Economics
PubDate: 2023-09-15T07:00:00Z
DOI: 10.1142/S2010007823500240
- IS SOLAR AND BIOGAS A BETTER CHOICE THAN ELECTRICITY AND DIESEL'
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Authors: NADEEM AKMAL, MUHAMMAD QASIM, HASSNAIN SHAH, SUMIA BINT ZAMAN, WAQAS FAROOQ, NAJID AHMAD
Abstract: Climate Change Economics, Ahead of Print.
This study measures the cost-effectiveness of alternate energy sources for irrigation in Pakistan. Primary data has been collected from eight districts of three provinces of Pakistan. Overall, 223 farmers were personally interviewed out of which, 58 farmers were using electric tube-well, 95 diesel tube-well, and 35 each for solar and biogas-operated tube-wells. The cost of extracting one cubic meter of water through electricity, diesel, subsidized electricity, biogas, and solar was $0.180, $0.013, $0.011, $0.010, and $0.005, respectively. The paper concludes that water pumping using alternative energy sources is cost-effective. Major constraints to adopting solar-powered water pumping systems were the high upfront cost, the lack of awareness, and the lack of available spare parts. The constraints to adopting biogas were difficulty operating and managing through winter.
Citation: Climate Change Economics
PubDate: 2023-08-08T07:00:00Z
DOI: 10.1142/S2010007823500215
- NET ZERO EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES BY 2050: ACHIEVABLE AND AT WHAT
COST'-
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Authors: JENNIFER MORRIS, Y.-H. HENRY CHEN, ANGELO GURGEL, JOHN REILLY, ANDREI SOKOLOV
Abstract: Climate Change Economics, Ahead of Print.
About 140 countries have announced or are considering net zero targets. To explore the implications of such targets, we apply an integrated earth system–economic model to investigate illustrative net zero emissions scenarios. Given the technologies as characterized in our modeling framework, we find that with net zero targets afforestation in earlier years and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) technology in later years are important negative emissions technologies, allowing continued emissions from hard-to-reduce sectors and sources. With the entire world achieving net zero by 2050 a very rapid scale-up of BECCS is required, increasing mitigation costs through mid-century substantially, compared with a scenario where some countries achieve net zero by 2050 while others continue some emissions in the latter half of the century. The scenarios slightly overshoot 1.5∘C at mid-century but are at or below 1.5∘C by 2100 with median climate response. Accounting for climate uncertainty, global achievement of net zero by 2050 essentially guarantees that the 1.5∘C target will be achieved, compared to having a 50–50 chance in the scenario without net zero. This indicates a tradeoff between policy costs and likelihood of achieving 1.5∘C.
Citation: Climate Change Economics
PubDate: 2023-07-13T07:00:00Z
DOI: 10.1142/S201000782340002X
- COSTS AND BENEFITS OF THE PARIS CLIMATE TARGETS
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Authors: RICHARD S. J. TOL
Abstract: Climate Change Economics, Ahead of Print.
The temperature targets in the Paris Agreement cannot be met without very rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The latter requires large, perhaps prohibitively large subsidies. The central estimate of the costs of climate policy, unrealistically assuming least-cost implementation, is 3.8–5.6% of GDP in 2100. The central estimate of the benefits of climate policy, unrealistically assuming high no-policy emissions and constant vulnerability, is 2.8–3.2% of GDP. The uncertainty about the benefits is larger than the uncertainty about the costs. The Paris targets do not pass the cost-benefit test unless risk aversion is high and discount rate low.
Citation: Climate Change Economics
PubDate: 2023-06-30T07:00:00Z
DOI: 10.1142/S2010007823400031
- EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD CROP PRODUCTION IN BENIN
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Authors: GBETONDJI MELAINE ARMEL NONVIDE, ARMAND FRÉJUIS AKPA
Abstract: Climate Change Economics, Ahead of Print.
Climate change becomes a serious threat to all humanity and in particular developing countries where people are more vulnerable because they depend on agriculture for their livelihood. In this study, we analyzed the effects of climatic variables on maize, rice and sorghum yields for 76 of the 77 municipalities in Benin over the period from 1995 to 2019. Using a production function, we specified a panel data model. Estimation of the pooled model and the fixed effect model showed that both precipitation and temperature variation were negatively correlated with production for the full sample and in northern and southern Benin, indicating the robustness of the results. Policies to promote adaptation strategies by facilitating farmers’ access to adaptation strategies need to be strengthened.
Citation: Climate Change Economics
PubDate: 2023-06-19T07:00:00Z
DOI: 10.1142/S2010007823500203
- ANALYZING THE LONG-RUN AND SHORT-RUN IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT
AND MAIZE YIELD IN WESTERN HIMALAYAN REGION OF INDIA-
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Authors: TAHIR FAZAL CHOUDHARY, MEENAKSHI GUPTA
Abstract: Climate Change Economics, Ahead of Print.
This study attempts to analyze the impact of climate change on the productivity of agricultural crops (wheat and maize), in the western Himalayan region of India for the period 1998–2019. The study implies second-generation panel estimation techniques. The Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) method is used to analyze the long-and short-run effect of climatic variables i.e., average temperature, temperature range, and average precipitation on the yield of wheat and maize. The finding of the Panel ARDL shows that the average temperature of kharif season negatively affects the maize yield both in long run and short run, whereas the average temperature of rabi season has a negatively significant effect on wheat yield in long run and positively significant effect on wheat yield in short run. The average precipitation of rabi season has a positively significant effect on wheat yield both in long run and short run. The study recommends the development of advanced irrigation system, and the implementation of the insurance scheme by the Government and to adopt climate-smart farming techniques.
Citation: Climate Change Economics
PubDate: 2023-06-10T07:00:00Z
DOI: 10.1142/S2010007823500197
- TEMPERATURE AND ENERGY SECURITY: WILL FOREST BIOMASS HELP IN THE
FUTURE'-
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Authors: ALICE FAVERO, JONGHYUN YOO, ADAM DAIGNEAULT, JUSTIN BAKER
Abstract: Climate Change Economics, Ahead of Print.
Despite the numerous technical, logistical, and policy challenges associated with the use of bioenergy to mitigate climate change, the latest IPCC report identifies bioenergy as a high-value and large-scale mitigation option to support the transition to a cleaner energy system. This paper links a climate-economic-energy model and a land model to measure the net mitigation effect of using forest biomass for electricity generation and corresponding implications on global temperature. Through the soft-link, the energy model provides to the land model the cost-effective regional consumption of forest biomass under nine carbon price scenarios and measures the effects of its use on fossil fuel emissions and carbon sequestered in carbon capture and storage (CCS). The land model provides the dynamic supply of forest biomass and measures the change in land management/use under each demand scenario and corresponding changes in carbon sequestered in forests. Results suggest that forest biomass should be part of global mitigation efforts despite the expected small share of electricity sourced from it. The net climate benefits of forest biomass energy vary across scenarios and temporally — in most scenarios increased biomass demand results in near term reductions in global forest carbon stocks, but at carbon prices starting at $40/tCO2e or greater, results show positive net sequestration by 2030. This increased sequestration, coupled with energy emissions displacement and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) implies substantial long-term mitigation potential for forest biomass energy. Our results suggest that high forest biomass demand pathways could also help reduce the magnitude of future temperature growth. Further, we explore the regional effects on energy security of using forest biomass. Results show that its use can have potential large effects on trade dynamics and regional energy security issues, with 4 of the 17 global regions found to be net exporters of forest biomass.
Citation: Climate Change Economics
PubDate: 2023-06-01T07:00:00Z
DOI: 10.1142/S2010007823500185
- ERRATUM — ACHIEVING GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION THROUGH CLIMATE CHANGE
CONTROL WITH THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN COVID-19 PERIOD-
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Authors: ZHEN LIU, JIALI TIAN, LEILING WANG, RUBAB GUL
Abstract: Climate Change Economics, Volume 14, Issue 03, August 2023.
Citation: Climate Change Economics
PubDate: 2022-12-02T08:00:00Z
DOI: 10.1142/S201000782392001X
Issue No: Vol. 14, No. 03 (2022)
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