Abstract: Abstract Globally, hunger and malnutrition have been on the rise, with climate change exacerbating food insecurity by affecting food production and accessibility. In international law, the human right to food provides a legal protection for individuals. It emphasises that food should not just meet minimal nutritional needs but ensure the ability to obtain food in a dignified manner. In order to achieve this goal, the text discusses the role of climate litigation in addressing global hunger by focusing on the right to food in the context of increasing climate change impacts. It outlines the legal foundations and challenges associated with enforcing this right through various legal systems and the potential of using climate litigation as a tool to ensure food security. PubDate: 2024-07-30
Abstract: Abstract There is common agreement that we are facing a great transition, which poses a challenge for the labour market, too. The expending literature on soft skills reflects the restructuring of the competition factors, and several papers discuss the future of the labour market: what new professions may emerge and what new skills these jobs demand. However, the attention on the expectations of the future generation of the labour market is more neglected, mainly in terms of what they perceive of companies’ expectations. The present research seeks information what soft skills university students think to possess and their views on companies' expectations for the future. In addition, we aimed at detecting the possible cultural differences between two similar countries. The study makes a comparative quantitative analysis of 931 Polish and Hungarian students by analysis of variance, logistic regression and cluster analysis with the PS Imago Pro and PAST programmes. The results reflect that students have a relevant perception of company needs; however, Polish and Hungarian future employees clearly differ in terms of both possession and expectations on soft skills. Additionally, these differences create patterns as well. Polish students are more team-related and prefer collaborative skills, while being more present-oriented. In terms of the future, the preferred skills rather help avoid uncertainties, and serve problem-solving, and hence, planning. Hungarian students highlight professional and individualistic skills to improve competitive abilities. They are more open to the future and recognise the importance of skills that help to unfold optional futures. PubDate: 2024-07-13
Abstract: Abstract Islands and small island groups are among the areas most affected by global climate change and face major adaptation challenges. Their role as hotspots of climate change impacts is widely recognized in the scientific literature, and it is not uncommon for small islands to act as poster children for particular climate-related vulnerability. Nonetheless, many island communities have a long tradition of living with oceanic influences, and the question is whether such habitats, where terrestrial and marine ecosystems overlap, have characteristics that contribute to greater self-regulation and resilience. The question is further whether and how the future or possible futures of such an exposed region and society could unfold, considering the negative impact of climate change and the resulting burden of natural disasters. The Halligen in the southern North Sea are an exceptional example of such a situation, and they are to be examined in this study particularly due to their extremely uncertain future. Questions regarding the future arise even more urgently due to the rapidly advancing sea-level rise in the course of climate change. They were already evident in a local field research in 2014 and for current reasons the collected interview material shall be analyzed under this prospective point of view. So what, under these harsh circumstances, might the futures of the Halligen look like' What does it mean for the future of a habitat and a society when the constant risk of storm surges is multiplied by the global risk of climate change and rising sea level' By examining this question from an interdisciplinary perspective in the present study, multiple answers can be provided. The futures differ significantly depending on the perspective from which one looks into the future. However, it is precisely this multidimensionality and heterogeneity that can pose an advantage when considering the unpredictability of future developments. Choosing this very specific region for the study also adds to the benefit – because: If the conditions change, if the strength of the environmental influences change in regions where two ecosystems overlap and which are particularly vulnerable due to their islandness, dealing with and adapting to the consequences of global warming becomes a glimpse into the future of all of us. PubDate: 2024-06-22
Abstract: Abstract The world is changing increasingly faster, bringing uncertainty and complexity to many processes, and this acceleration leads to the rise of demand for studies regarding the future. Futures Studies have been widely used to support decision-making, emphasizing forecasting technologies’ timing, diffusion, and life cycle. Therefore, evaluating previous forecasts to understand their proposed scenarios better is often necessary. This work analyzes all articles published until the end of 2023 in one of the most relevant journals of this field of study, the European Journal of Futures Research (EJFR). The EJFR is among the main contributors to fostering dialogue among scholars, practitioners, and policymakers interested in anticipating and shaping the future. We streamlined the uncovering of future events written on EJFR articles using NERMAP, a software we designed to semi-automate the roadmapping process. We built five simple scenarios and associated each of the 214 future events found into a scenario. Then, we analyzed the 52 events that were supposed to happen until 2023 to discover how the expected possible events did occur in real life. Therefore, we expect to provide insights, better understand how expected possible events occur in real life, and write a novel way to understand the journal’s history. The methodology used in this study is novel and applicable to other studies to reduce the time and risk of errors when developing large-scale roadmaps. This work provides valuable information for decision-makers in organizations and governments. The Futures Research scientific community can use the results to improve their research frameworks. PubDate: 2024-05-27
Abstract: Abstract In honor of its 50th anniversary, the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) held its XXV World Conference in Paris. The conference provided a venue for reviewing earlier developments and reevaluating prospective directions in the futures field. Scientific-based futures studies has a long history, drawing from a variety of fields including sociology, policy sciences, philosophy of science, economic prognostics, and environmental sustainability. Futures studies became widely acknowledged as an academic discipline in the 1960s when it became evident in the global scientific community. The 1970s saw a focus on global challenges and discussions about preferred futures. The synthesis of futures studies emerged in the 1980s and 1990s, with critical and evolutionary approaches contributing to the advancement of theoretical foundations. The twenty-first century focuses on anticipation and futures literacy, the development of post-normal, metamodern, and integral approaches, and the attainment of foresight in common practice. Future research is expected to focus on various aspects, including artificial general intelligence (AGI), socio-technical transitions, singularity, sustainability, societal collapses, entrepreneurial innovation, energy futures, decolonization, negation and post-prefix notions, systemic foresight, applied foresight, and on-site foresight. Future research activities are expected to also include research objects, policy challenges, and problems that do not yet exist. PubDate: 2024-04-15
Abstract: Abstract In response to pressing global challenges, sustainability transitions research has emerged as an interdisciplinary field focused on fundamental changes, necessitating novel approaches for strategy-making from research and innovation. Foresight practitioners need to extend their well-established methodological toolkit, which can inform subsequent planning processes about managing conflicts and shaping futures, to include the articulation of response options for contributing to the creation of more sustainable future systems. This research aims to contribute to this need by exploring future options characterized by discrepancies. Drawing from the Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) literature to understand discrepancies between “desirability” and “probability” of future options as missed opportunities to secure social desirability in the future or as threats to it, this research argues for the collective identification and anticipation of discrepancies to reflect on options for making more responsive strategies. Thus, informed by RRI, a Delphi exercise was modified to engage experts from the German agri-food sector (n = 21) to assess divergent innovation-driven changes in the German agri-food sector that had been collectively anticipated and reflected upon beforehand. The results speak for a reduction of complexity by revealing specific actions necessary to redirect research and innovation processes away from unsustainable paths, as well as identifying determinants of discrepancies to do good or avoid harm. PubDate: 2024-04-14
Abstract: Abstract Re-reading the risk literature, I sketch a novel nomenclature for 36 dyadic risk interactions that constitute the prototypes of what eventually become cascading effects. This analysis demonstrates where cascading risk effects originate and also hints at how they get their enormous power. Risk dyads derive from basic first-order interactions across six disruptive forces: sci-tech, governance, economics, social dynamics, ecological impact, and health adversity. I give brief examples of each and provide a short case description of six of the most prominent dyads. Very few of these dyads have an existing shorthand. The exception is NaTech, which denotes natural disasters being amplified by, or amplifying industrial risk, or now more broadly, sci-tech-derived risk. By generalizing the NaTech-style nomenclature across domains, I aim to provide the basic building blocks for a precise understanding of contemporary risk mechanics. This step is often skipped by avid complexity scholars intent on first describing system-wide features. Yet, dyadic analysis is an important prerequisite for systemic understanding of complex cascading effects that depend on triadic or tetradic risk relationships. In reality, even if systemic, and existential risks, as they emerge in the twenty-first century, depend on a myriad of cascading effects, they cannot be fully understood simply by looking at the whole system and attempting to analytically ignore its constituent parts claiming to gain a better overview. PubDate: 2024-03-26
Abstract: Abstract Today, assumptions about probable future developments (at least as far as they make use of quantifiable scientific methods and are not pure speculation) are generally based on data from the past. An interesting way to analyze the future through this type of data is text mining or individual methods out of the spectrum of text mining, such as topic modeling. Topic Modeling itself is a combination of quantitative and qualitative methodology and is based on the full spectrum of social science methodology. Therefore, the method is an interesting way for futures research to analyze futures. This publication addresses the question of how a combination of different methods can contribute to trend monitoring or trend mining. For this purpose, a set of scientific publications was first generated with the help of a search query in the Web of Science (WoS), which is the basis for all evaluations and statements and topics. In essence, the method considered here should be more fully integrated into the scientific practice of futures research because it can make a valuable contribution to estimating future development based on past development. PubDate: 2024-03-11
Abstract: Abstract In Finland, agriculture is practiced in variable growing conditions that are further challenged by climate change and under external pressure caused by international competition, changing consumer preferences and demands, and the renewal of the European Union Common Agriculture Policy and Paris Agreement climate targets. Futures studies in agriculture have focused on scenario building with expert panels, though usually without farmers’ involvement. This study focuses on farmers’ views of shaping the future of Finnish agriculture. It builds on the disaggregative Delphi method and combines interviews and a representative survey of Finnish farmers. The study is based on a bottom-up process in which a farmer panel of 20 farms defined their views of the future in a semi-structured thematic interview. The views were turned into statements in a structured survey sent to the second panel, which comprised all Finnish farmers who had received agricultural subsidies in 2016, with 4401 respondents. The results were analyzed using quantitative factor analysis, which produced five future images for Finnish agriculture. The images were shown to the original farmer panel for reflection. They considered the probability of each future image and their own role in it. Technology solves as a future image was most favored by farmers, followed by Ecological and specializing small-scale production image. Business-as-usual was the least likely future images according to the interviewed farmers. This paper describes the process and discusses both methodological benefits and pitfalls, as well as farmers’ future views of the forthcoming decades. PubDate: 2024-03-01
Abstract: Abstract With the input of 16 experts from a variety of social studies disciplines—including anthropology, art, communication, curriculum and instruction, economics, geography, history, law, measurement and assessment, philosophy, politics, psychology, social studies education, sociology, technology, and Turkish language and literature—as well as two social studies teachers, the goal of this research is to determine the competencies that a social studies teacher should possess in 2050. This mixed-method research was designed using the exploratory sequential design and modified Delphi technique. The study group was determined using the maximum variation sampling technique. The whole Delphi process was carried out online due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The analyses showed that the participants agreed on 1 competency under the “Knowledge” theme, 24 competencies under the “Skill” theme, and 6 competencies under the “Attitude” theme regarding the competencies that a social studies teacher should possess in 2050. PubDate: 2024-02-29
Abstract: Abstract Futures workshop is a participatory futures research method for producing views on futures and facilitating transformation and empowerment. Since different workshop methods are generally considered to have many advantages, they are widely used in various futures contexts. However, there is little knowledge on how futures participation entails empowerment for thinking and acting on futures. This paper studies participants’ futures thinking and action in relation to their workshop experience. As psychological constructs for engaging with futures, the concepts of human agency and futures consciousness are used for the analysis. The study examines two futures workshops organized in Finland for farmers and stakeholders in the agricultural sector using the futures consciousness scale pre-post survey, an open-ended follow-up survey, and thematic interviews. The results of the study show that although there was no statistically significant change in futures consciousness, the workshop experience is absorbed into participants’ daily reality, provoking their uses of futures. By analyzing quantitative and qualitative data, it is thus concluded that the ways in which futures participation empowers futures thinking and action are not, and should not be held, evident. Therefore, it is proposed that regarding their empowerment assumptions, participatory futures methods should perform deeper self-consideration as anticipatory practice. PubDate: 2024-02-15
Abstract: Abstract This article presents a hybrid foresight study using the Delphi methodology. The study is part of a strategic research project of the Finnish state named “Foresight in Environmental Reference Laboratory Operations.” The main starting point for this study was the Policy Delphi method, which was supplemented with other Delphi variants and decision support methods. In this hybrid foresight application, Delphi methodology was combined with decision-making and strategic planning tools, namely (1) SWOT analysis, (2) Boston Consulting Group Matrix, (3) research infrastructure (RI) analysis, (4) platform analysis, and (5) integrative foresight workshop. This article draws strongly on the hybrid foresight methodology perspective of foresight tool orchestration. The authors argue that the Delphi methodology gains reliability and appeal with hybrid methodological orchestration. The function of reference laboratories includes services for the verification and maintenance of the quality and validity of environmental measurements, such as the maintenance of reference measurement equipment, expertise, and training, and the organization of national reference measurements as well as participation in international reference measurements, method development, and standardization. The study shows the importance of environmental reference laboratories addressing the following challenges by 2030: (1) new measurement targets, such as the diffusion of nanomaterials, microplastics, and drugs in both nature and the food chain and the environmental impact of recycled materials and indoor air issues; (2) automation of measurement activities and transition to technologically advanced measurement systems; (3) citizens’ opportunities to participate in the production of information about their environment through new technologies; (4) preparing for the incorporation and internationalization of laboratory operations; and (5) the concentration of measurement service business. PubDate: 2024-01-31
Abstract: Abstract This explorative literature review aims to examine the content and methodologies of recent empirical studies on the aspirations of youth in situations of migration in Europe. The search yielded 30 peer-reviewed social science publications in English for the period 2010–2022, including both intra-European migrants ages 10–24 and youth with backgrounds from outside Europe. Contextual analysis was used to analyse the content of the reviewed studies, while a typology developed by Beckert and Suckert was used to examine features of the future appearing in the studies’ research aims, methodology and findings. The analysis broadly situated the studies within constructivist traditions, occupying a mid-position between deterministic and agency-oriented epistemologies. All the features of the future listed by Beckert and Suckert were found in the material, but the categories 'Temporal configurations of the future' and 'Space of the future' showed greater complexities. Participants in the studies lived in different European countries and the study samples comprised a wide range of ages, socioeconomic backgrounds, and status of residence. Nevertheless, barriers linked to participants' position as migrants were tangible, while the ability these young people had to envisage the future was strongly affected by uncertainties linked to migration policy and administrative decisions on their status. A mismatch could notably be observed between youth aspirations and the opportunities offered by their life situation, which led to delays in life projects and the inability to plan ahead. Critical relevance statement By an analysis of social studies research on aspirations of youth in situations of migration in various European countries, this review highlights the need to consider implications for youth aspirations and life trajectories in both policy and practice Key points • Young people in situations of migration have high aspirations but confront substantial barriers • Uncertainties prevent youth from long-term planning and realising life projects • Current policies create conditions that are not consistent with European values and ambitions PubDate: 2024-01-08
Abstract: Abstract The digital transformation has induced significant social and economic changes, impacting services of general interest, including healthcare. National healthcare systems serve as crucial pillars of social and prosperity security, necessitating adaptation in the face of digital transformation. Among healthcare institutions, hospitals play a vital role due to the nature and scope of their care services. This study presents a scenario-based investigation to explore the forthcoming changes in the healthcare environment and their potential effects on inpatient care. The study employed an iterative approach, commencing with an exploratory survey of experts to identify impact areas and descriptors. Subsequently, a two-round Delphi survey, involving a four-member stakeholder expert group, was conducted to evaluate and refine the identified parameters. A fuzzy clustering algorithm was utilized in the study to derive four different scenarios. These scenarios elucidate alternative development paths and describe the characteristics that may lead to these developments. The study’s findings offer valuable insights for formulating proactive recommendations and interventions to effectively address future developments in healthcare. PubDate: 2023-12-20
Abstract: Abstract Businesses are facing increasing pressure from society and regulators to become more sustainable and do their part to address the climate crisis. These businesses will require continual sustainability innovation formulation and implementation processes to meet these demands. Collaborative foresight (CF) has high potential for helping business sectors produce a continuous stream of sustainability options to select and deploy in finished products. Recent developments in futures studies indicate that a capability called futures literacy (FL)—acts of individuals or groups switching their modes and purposes for imagining futures—is relevant to the production of innovation-related outcomes. FL may be key to driving the effectiveness of such foresight collaborations; however, little is known about its exact functions in such business networks and processes. This article examines this issue in the context of a luxury-cruise shipbuilding network in Finland. It analyzes research data from the foresight workstreams of a multi-partner consortium active across three sequential projects between 2016 and 2022. The foresight team took an interventionist research approach, conducting interviews and workshops as part of all three projects. In this article, we analyze the materials produced from these interventions for the appearances of FL enhancement. Based on this analysis, we found that FL can play key functions in CF, such as supporting actors in perceiving new developmental pathways, identifying new opportunities for innovation, and identifying alternative priorities built from new realizations and insights—a finding in line with existing claims by FL scholars and educators. This article contributes to ongoing discussions about the significance of CF and FL in addressing the most pressing environmental issues of our time. It offers an evidence-based argument for the relevance of taking a capabilities approach (i.e., introducing and developing FL) for business networks seeking to use foresight when engaging in sustainability innovation. PubDate: 2023-10-26
Abstract: Abstract Legislatures have recently started to invest in anticipatory governance. Alongside new practices, they have introduced designated future committees and organs that connect MPs to future-regarding visioning and advice. Two decades ago, only Finland had a ‘future committee’, today broadly similar organs exist in 10 countries around the world. While signaling an important attempt to take expert-driven anticipatory governance closer to voters, legislative future organs may become short-lasting or remain politically weak, as their efforts to gain power typically threaten established legislative actors. To examine this emerging tension, we theoretically distinguish the unorthodox methods of future committees from traditional legislative practices and empirically compare the operation of all existing legislative future committees and similar organs. We uncover a considerable similarity between these institutions that mostly operate outside of the ordinary legislative process. To survive, they must add value to MPs without endangering the existing division of power. Finding this balance enhances the consolidation of legislative future organs, but it simultaneously limits their conventional political impact. PubDate: 2023-09-29
Abstract: Abstract This article reports on a political game played between November 2021 and February 2022 at a European university in the frame of an elective course open to students from all disciplines. It started from a scenario that combined a real and ongoing innovation process—the use of CRISPR/Cas9 technology to introduce specific genes from unfrozen mammoths onto an elephant species to make it more resistant to cold—with a fictive joint project between a US-based company and the Russian government to release those mammoths on an island in the North-West of Russia. Almost no rules were given, and the students were distributed in nine groups to represent different actors deemed relevant to the scenario. These groups were the national governments of (1) Russia, (2) close neighboring states, (3) European countries farther away from the project location; (4) the company working on the innovation, dubbed HELIOS; (5) other market actors; civil society organizations concerned with (6) animal rights and (7) the environment; (8) the European Commission and the EU Parliament; and (9) media. The game was led by the course teacher and two student volunteers. Based on the results of both qualitative and quantitative forms of ex-post evaluation, we assess whether the Mammoth game meets the expectations that guided the game design process. Furthermore, we discuss whether the Mammoth game had a positive effect on students’ abilities to think about the future. PubDate: 2023-07-08
Abstract: Abstract Utopian images in XR-games are often ambiguous. How can ambiguity be consciously designed in virtual worlds' What are the design principles for game designers' Ambiguity arises from discontinuity and decontextualization, from the deliberate omission of facts, and from the skillful superimposition of contradictory codes. An ontology of interactive media explains the elusive visual poetry and image perception. The five basic elements of media are presented. The model shows the key correlations of user, content, and technology in image perception. An overview of utopian representation as a cross-media phenomenon places game design in an interdisciplinary context. Six selected computer-generated illustrations show how the above design criteria can be successfully applied to the design of virtual worlds. The ambiguous utopia of an image exists only in a brief, irretrievable moment of our own perception. But this moment is valuable for designing real visions for a better future. PubDate: 2023-06-10
Abstract: Abstract The ever-increasing environmental complexity makes strategizing a difficult multidimensional task. In this paper, we conducted a corporate foresight case study in an SME in packaging industry in Iran. The case study offers a detailed procedure of implementing corporate foresight (CF) and how it can reshape traditional strategic planning. A multimethodological approach was taken in this case study. Once an intraorganizational team in studied company was formed, archival document analysis, PESTEL and weak signal analysis, importance/uncertainty matrix, cross-impact balanced (CIB) analysis, scenario construction, wind tunneling, robust decision-making, and premortem session were used to create foresight intelligence. This paper presents a detailed description of how CF can be linked to conventional strategizing and reshape it. Key variables, driving forces, critical uncertainties, and 4 plausible scenarios are presented. The case study illustrates that as alternative realities challenged the foresight teams ingrained presuppositions, they found the dialectic between “weight of history” and “pull of future” both revelatory and indigestible. The CF intervention illuminated the fragility of preexisting strategic objectives, the implicit optimism bias underlying them, and an overflowing-plate syndrome of formulating too many strategic objectives. Consequently, studied company decided to revisit their strategic objectives, prepare a contingency plan for worst-case scenarios, and begin developing a crisis-ready culture. The comprehensive case study demonstrates how CF can enhance and contradict traditional strategizing, presents a rich know-how of added value of scenarios, and provides some subtleties and complexities of CF interventions. PubDate: 2023-04-24