Abstract: Background: Following the rapid increase of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union in 2015/16, policymakers have invested heavily in improving their foresight and forecasting capabilities. A common method to elicit expert predictions are Delphi surveys. This approach has attracted concern in the literature, given the high uncertainty in experts’ predictions. However, there exists limited guidance on specific design choices for future-related Delphi surveys. Objective: We test whether or not small adjustments to the Delphi survey can increase certainty (i.e., reduce variation) in expert predictions on immigration to the EU in 2030. Methods: Based on a two-round Delphi survey with 178 migration experts, we compare variation and subjective confidence in expert predictions and assess whether additional context information (type of migration flow, sociopolitical context) promotes convergence among experts (i.e., less variation) and confidence in their own estimates. Results: We find that additional context information does not reduce variation and does not increase confidence in expert predictions on migration. Conclusions: The results reaffirm recent concerns regarding the limited scope for reducing uncertainty by manipulating the survey setup. Persistent uncertainty may be a result of the complexity of migration processes and limited agreement among migration experts regarding key drivers. Contribution: We caution policymakers and academics on the use of Delphi surveys for eliciting expert predictions on immigration, even when conducted based on a large pool of experts and using specific scenarios. The potential of alternative approaches such as prediction markets should be further explored. PubDate: Wed, 06 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +010
Abstract: Background: Changes in birth seasonality patterns have been documented in several countries, whether long-lasting or temporary. In Spain, a decline in and absence of birth seasonality was reported in 1941–2000. This study extends the analysis to the full period of available monthly data, exploring changes in birth seasonality in Spain, its connection to social/health phenomena, and its related effects. Methods: We analyzed the two available monthly data periods: 1863–1870 and 1900–2021 (n = 73,338,010 births). Fourier spectral analysis and Cosinor analysis were performed to study changes in the overall seasonal pattern. The Chow structural change test analyzed punctual variations. Box-Jenkins time series methodology was applied to estimate the impact of related events on the number of live births. Results: The overall monthly pattern changes, shifting the maximum of births from February in the 19th century to September in the 21st century, experiencing a loss of amplitude. Three structural change points were found in the monthly series of observed/expected births, in 1919, 1940, and 2020, corresponding to the influenza pandemic, the end of the Spanish Civil War, and the Covid-19 lockdown, with temporary impacts on live births of –8.1%, 38.8%, and –16.4%, respectively. Conclusions: The seasonal pattern in Spain has changed substantially in shape and amplitude. While gradual changes appear to be associated with socioeconomic change, there is a clear connection between temporary changes and isolated social/health phenomena. Contribution: We study both gradual and temporary changes in birth seasonality, covering the entire period of data available in Spain, and quantify the effects of related isolated events. PubDate: Fri, 01 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +010
Abstract: Background: Measures of fertility by level of female education are currently only available for cohorts that have already completed childbearing age. The focus on cohorts whose fertility decisions were made in the past is problematic when the objective is to better understand which specific groups within European countries are currently the most affected by low and/or declining fertility. Objective: In this article we provide more timely measures of the educational gradient of fertility for Europe by quantifying it for those cohorts that are currently of childbearing age (ages 15 to 49) for most European countries. Methods: To measure period fertility by education for 24 EU and 4 non-EU countries in Europe, we use data from the European Union’s Survey of Income and Living Conditions, EU-SILC (Eurostat 2020). A semi-retrospective approach is used to observe the parity-specific fertility behavior of cohorts that are of childbearing age, while at the same time recording the educational level correctly. Bayesian statistics allow us to obtain credible intervals for the age-, education-, and parity-specific birth probabilities for each country. These birth probabilities are then combined into a multi-state life table in order to obtain parity-specific and total birth intensities by education. A post-stratification of birth probabilities allows consistency with national fertility estimates, enabling international comparisons of specific groups (e.g., highly educated women) or of particular dimensions of fertility behavior (e.g., childlessness). Results: Our analytical set-up reveals whether there are significant differences in fertility behavior between education groups in each European country and how these differentials vary between European countries. More precisely, we answer the question of whether, when all birth orders are combined, heterogeneity in period fertility behavior is greater among the higher- or the lower-educated across Europe. In addition, we show for which parity the heterogeneity between education groups is the largest. Conclusions: Even if low-educated women have the highest period fertility levels in almost all covered European countries, the educational gradient is not always negative. In one-third of European countries, period fertility levels in 2010 exhibit a U-shaped pattern, with the middle-educated having the lowest fertility. The diversity in period fertility levels among highly educated women in Europe is due to the transitions to first and second childbirth of highly educated women being higher in some countries than in others, while higher-order childbirths exhibit a more negative educational gradient across Europe. Contribution: By delivering a new method for measuring the educational gradient of fertility for women who are of childbearing age rather than for women who have already completed their reproductive years, our research enables a timely analysis of within-country differentials of period fertility behavior. PubDate: Tue, 28 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +010
Abstract: Background: The distribution of job tenure plays an important role in demography, economics, and sociology. Job tenure in a labor market is analogous to age in a population. Demographers have used indirect methods based on variable-r methods to estimate parameters for life table models. The variable-r method can also be employed to estimate the parameters of a job tenure table model that yields the expected length of job tenure and related measures. Methods: Only two retrospective surveys of current employee tenure lengths and a count of between-survey hires are required to estimate the parameters of a period tenure table using the variable-r method. Tenure-specific sources of decrement allow an analyst to estimate the parameters of multiple-decrement tenure tables and associated single-decrement tenure tables that isolate the proximate contribution of a specific decrement to the job separation process. I illustrate and evaluate the method using publicly available US data. Results: Variable-r methods generated reasonable parameter estimates: The expected job tenure was 2.48 years at 2002–2004 decrement rates. Multiple-decrement methods can estimate the fraction of employment relationships that end via job displacement. Cause-deleted tenure tables can capture the static effect of eliminating a particular risk to the population of employment relationships. Contribution: Arthur and Vaupel (1984) provide a framework for studying nonstable populations that subsume the variable-r relations that I utilize in this work. Vaupel had an interest in formal demography throughout his life but started his academic career in business statistics. This paper combines those interests. PubDate: Thu, 16 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +010
Abstract: Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a notable impact on marriage and fertility intentions. Existing research has found that the impact of the pandemic on childbearing intentions and outcomes has varied across countries. Yet it remains unclear what the post-COVID-19 fertility rate would be if the changes in childbearing intentions observed during the pandemic translated into corresponding behavioral changes. Objective: This study centered on the experience of South Korea, where an unprecedented decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) was recorded. We aim to examine changes in individuals’ marriage and childbearing intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the implications of these changes for fertility rates. Methods: We used a combination of population census, vital statistics, and online survey data to examine shifts in marriage and fertility intentions among women of childbearing age during the COVID-19 pandemic. Simulation analysis was employed to explore various scenarios of intention changes regarding marriage and childbearing by parity. It was assumed that childbearing followed a sequential progression: from never married to high parities. Results: We found that during the COVID-19 pandemic, Korean women experienced a downward shift in their marriage and childbearing intentions on average. If these intention changes translate into corresponding behaviors, the TFR is estimated to fall to 0.754, using the TFR value from the base year of 2019. Conclusions: The results suggest that the TFR in South Korea is likely to decrease further if the intention changes translate into corresponding behavioral changes. Contribution: This study advances the existing literature by taking a life course approach and integrating survey results into a simulation to examine the pandemic-related effects on fertility. It provides a better understanding of shifts in individuals’ reproductive decisions during the crisis and the potential consequences on marriage and fertility patterns thereafter. PubDate: Wed, 15 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +010
Abstract: Background: Consistent and reliable time series of education- and age-specific fertility rates for the past are difficult to obtain in developing countries, although they are needed to evaluate the impact of women’s education on fertility across periods and cohorts. Objective: We aim to fill the existing gap by reconstructing age-specific fertility rates by level of education for a large sample of African and Latin American countries from 1970 to 2020 in 5-year steps. Methods: We develop a Bayesian framework to reconstruct age-specific fertility rates by level of education using prior information from the birth history module of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Results: We find that the Bayesian approach allows for estimating reliable education- and age-specific fertility rates using multiple rounds of the DHS surveys. The time series obtained confirm the main findings of the literature on fertility trends and age- and education-specific differentials. Conclusions: From a methodological point of view, we show that the Bayesian reconstruction model allows for estimating missing data on fertility by level of educational attainment. This information is key when we account for the role of education in fertility rates and assess the impacts of education policies in countries in Africa and Latin America. Contribution: We propose an advanced statistical model which fills gaps in time series when data are missing, and provide complete and UN WPP-consistent age-specific fertility rates for 50 countries. PubDate: Fri, 10 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +010
Abstract: Objective: This paper examines how family-building transitions (union formation and first birth) affect the attitudes of Swedes toward work and parenthood. The literature finds that these life course transitions have a traditionalizing effect on gender roles. Is this also the case in Sweden, one of the most gender-equal countries in the world' Methods: Our study uses the longitudinal Young Adult Panel Study database. We run first-difference OLS regressions on the relationship between family-building transitions and work and parenthood attitudes, distinguishing men from women, and those with more education from those with less. Results: We find that family transitions do slightly traditionalize attitudes toward work and parenthood, but differences by gender and education are very small. Contribution: The overall pattern is one of striking similarity between men and women, suggesting that the gender revolution is well advanced in Sweden; traditional gender differences remain primarily among those with less education. PubDate: Thu, 09 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +010
Abstract: Background: Amid low fertility rates in the industrialized world, some subpopulations have maintained high fertility rates. However, it has often been difficult to study these populations due to limitations in extant data sources. Objective: This paper will demonstrate a method of measuring key demographic indicators for Ultra-Orthodox Jews using demographic and language variables in the American Community Survey (ACS). Methods: Comparison of estimates of total fertility rates derived from ACS estimates of Yiddish and Hebrew speakers to related indicators from small surveys of American Jewish populations and data on same-sect fertility in Israel and the United Kingdom validates the use of Yiddish to identify Ultra-Orthodox Jewish respondents in the ACS. Results: ACS-derived demographic estimates for Yiddish speakers closely approximate estimates derived for Ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities using other methods. Ultra-Orthodox Jews in America have high fertility but very low rates of teen fertility and marriage, and fairly egalitarian marriage ages. Ultra-Orthodox Jewish fertility is high but not necessarily uncontrolled. Conclusions: ACS language data can be used to study relatively small subpopulations with unique demographic characteristics. Contribution: Researchers can use ACS language data to study other demographically unique subpopulations or to study Ultra-Orthodox Jews in more detail than was previously possible. PubDate: Wed, 08 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +010
Abstract: Background: Intermarriage is a leading indicator of racialized relations. Scholarly literature has focused on the United States and shows that black–white intermarriage is especially low within that country. Surprisingly, there are no studies that compare black–white intermarriage across a broad range of countries around the world. Objective: How does black–white intermarriage compare in Brazil, Cuba, France, South Africa, the United States, and the United Kingdom circa 2010' Methods: We use odds ratios of endogamy and log-linear analysis of large micro-level datasets for each country. Results: Interracial marriage varies widely across countries. Despite increases in recent decades, US black–white intermarriage levels are the second lowest among the six countries, although they are markedly higher among cohabitors. Intermarriage rates (opposite of endogamy) are high in the Latin American countries, moderate in the European countries, low-moderate in the United States and extremely low in South Africa. Controls for structural factors have minor effects, suggesting that national differences are mostly related to cultural factors. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that national differences are primarily from differences in racial attitudes and tolerance toward intermarriage, specifically the willingness of blacks and whites to cross racial boundaries in marriage. We also find that although the effects of historical laws prohibiting racial intermarriage have waned, they continue to account for especially strong taboos against intermarriage in the United States and especially South Africa. Contribution: This is the first systematic comparison of black–white marriage across a broad set of countries around the world. We find that countries differ widely in the extent of black–white intermarriage. PubDate: Thu, 02 Nov 2023 00:00:00 +010
Abstract: Background: The Nicoya region in Costa Rica has been identified as one of a handful of hotspots of extreme longevity. The evidence supporting this status comes mostly from observing the 1990 and 2000 decades and cohorts born before 1930. Objective: To determine how the longevity advantage of older men in Nicoya has progressed in the period 1990 to 2020 and in cohorts born from 1900 to 1950. Methods: Remaining length of life and adult mortality were estimated using new public administrative records from the electoral system and a Gompertz regression model. A new nationwide survival-time database of 550,000 adult Costa Ricans who were alive at any point during 1990–2020 was put together. Results: The longevity advantage of Nicoya is disappearing in a trend driven mostly by cohort effects. While Nicoyan males born in 1905 had 33% lower adult mortality rates than other Costa Ricans, those born in 1945 had 10% higher rates. The original geographic hotspot of low elderly mortality, coined the Nicoya blue zone, has decreased to a small area south of the peninsula around the corridor from Hojancha inland to the beach town of Sámara. However, Nicoyans born before 1930 who are still alive continue to show exceptionally high longevity. Conclusions: Surviving Nicoyan males born before 1930 are exceptional human beings living longer than expected lives. Not so for more recent cohorts. The window of opportunity to meet and study pre-1930 individuals is closing. Contribution: Hotspots of extreme longevity are probably transient, and their status should be reassessed continuously. PubDate: Wed, 18 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +020
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