Abstract: BACKGROUND Barriers to intermarriage are more formidable than barriers to interracial cohabitation. Relative to same-race couples, a higher share of interracial couples cohabits with their nonmarital partners. This raises the question: Does the social significance of cohabitation differ for interracial and same-race couples' OBJECTIVE We compared the stability and outcome of first cohabitations prior to any marriage and the association between premarital cohabitation and subsequent marriage by couples’ joint race/ethnicity. METHODS Using data from the 2002 and 2006–2019 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), we estimated discrete-time event history models to predict differences in the stability of cohabitations and subsequent marriages by couples’ joint race/ethnicity. RESULTS The stability and outcomes of White–Black cohabitations were similar to those of same-race Black cohabitations, whereas the stability of White–Hispanic cohabitations fell in between those of their same-race White and Hispanic counterparts. Premarital cohabitation was generally positively associated with higher odds of marital dissolution, but it was negatively associated with the odds of marital dissolution for White–Black couples.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Cohort-component models incorporating directional migration are conceptually robust demographic models which are widely employed to forecast the populations of large subnational regions. However, they are difficult to apply at the local area scale. Simpler models, such as the Hamilton–Perry model, have modest input data requirements and are much quicker, cheaper, and easier to implement, but they offer less output detail, suffer from some conceptual and practical limitations, and can be less accurate. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to describe and evaluate the synthetic migration cohort-component model – an approach to implementing the bi-regional model for local area population forecasts without the need for any locally specific migration data. METHODS The new approach is evaluated by creating several sets of ‘forecasts’ for local areas of Australia over past periods. For comparison, forecasts from two types of Hamilton–Perry model are also evaluated. Error is measured primarily with an alternative Absolute Percentage Error measure for total population which takes into account how well or poorly the population age–sex structure is forecast. RESULTS In the evaluation for Australian local areas, the synthetic migration model generated more accurate forecasts that the two Hamilton–Perry models in terms of median, mean, and 90th percentile Absolute Percentage Errors.
Abstract: BACKGROUND The role of smoking in racial disparities in mortality and life expectancy in the United States has been examined previously, but up-to-date estimates are generally unavailable, even though smoking prevalence has declined in recent decades. OBJECTIVE We estimate the contribution of smoking-attributable mortality to observed differences in mortality and life expectancy for US African-American and white adults from 2000–2019. METHODS The indirect Preston–Glei–Wilmoth method was used with national vital statistics and population data and nationally representative never-smoker lung cancer death rates to estimate the smoking-attributable fraction (SAF) of deaths in the United States by sex-race group from 2000–2019. Mortality rates without smoking-attributable mortality were used to estimate life expectancy at age 50 (e_50) by group during the period. RESULTS African-American men had the highest estimated SAF during the period, beginning at 26.4% (95% CI:25.0%–27.8%) in 2000 and ending at 12.1% (95% CI:11.4%–12.8%) in 2019. The proportion of the difference in e_50 for white and African-American men that was due to smoking decreased from 27.7% to 14.8%. For African-American and white women, the estimated differences in e_50 without smoking-attributable mortality were similar to observed differences. CONCLUSIONS Smoking continues to contribute to racial disparities in mortality and life expectancy among men in the United States.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Childrearing in sub-Saharan Africa is often viewed as collaborative, where children benefit from support from kin. For single mothers living in informal settlements, kin networks may be highly dispersed and offer little day-to-day childrearing support, but may provide opportunities for child fostering. OBJECTIVE Our study uses a linked lives approach, where single mothers’ connections with kin and romantic partners may influence whether – and what type of – kin are relied on to support child fostering. METHODS We leverage an innovative survey on the kin networks of 404 single mothers and 741 children, collected in 2016, and 41 in-depth interviews conducted in 2011 and 2013, to explore fostering among single mothers in Korogocho and Viwandani, two slums in Nairobi, Kenya. RESULTS Quantitative findings show 6.2% of single mothers’ children are fostered, with provision of emotional support associated with lower likelihood of fostering. Both quantitative and qualitative results reflect strong reliance on maternal kin. Maternal kin play a key role in fostering to protect children, to fulfill traditional lineage obligations, and due to their willingness to foster when others will not.
Abstract: BACKGROUND While overall fertility across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is still high, fertility rates have been declining among educated and wealthier women in many countries since the 1970s. It is not clear whether, five decades later, consistently lower fertility among better-off women represents a distinct fertility regime among this subpopulation. OBJECTIVE To determine whether advantaged women (the best educated or wealthiest) in contemporary SSA have fertility characteristic of late (total fertility rate [TFR] 2.0–2.9) or mid-to-late (TFR 3.0–3.9) fertility transition levels. METHODS We use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to calculate TFR for better-off women using six educational and wealth categories in 27 countries in SSA. RESULTS Women with completed secondary education (11% of the full sample) across SSA have late (2.0–2.9) or mid-to-late (3.0–3.9) TFR in 25 out of 27 sample countries (with an average TFR of 3.2). While better-educated women in higher-fertility countries (TFR>5) have somewhat higher fertility than their counterparts in lower-fertility settings (TFR PubDate: Wed, 04 May 2022 00:00:00
Abstract: BACKGROUND In contrast to global trends in which education hypogamy occurs when a reversal in the gender gap has taken place, an increase in women’s education in India is closely followed by hypogamy, although women are still the less-educated gender. Two trends associated with this development suggest that educational hypogamy is a product of status exchange: an increase in educational hypogamy among lower-caste groups and a slow rise in caste exogamy. OBJECTIVE The primary objective of this study is to determine whether status exchanges can explain educational hypogamy in India. The initial assumptions are that educational hypogamy can be explained by the desire of women to ‘marry up’ to attain the caste of the husband and of women who belong to higher castes (who have less to gain by caste status) to ‘marry up’ to benefit from the occupation of the husband. METHODS The Indian Demographic and Health Survey 2015–2016 dataset and logistic regression models were used to address the research question. The findings suggest that the educational trade-off with social and economic exchanges is interconnected, which is affected significantly by the caste groups to which the women and their prospective husbands belong. When marrying less-educated men, the preference to rise by caste is high among lower-caste women, whereas the preference to rise by occupation is important among women belonging to higher castes.
Abstract: BACKGROUND A return migration later in life can be seen as a coping strategy to deal with care needs and other difficulties. Understanding these return migrations requires a comprehensive approach that takes previous migrant trajectories into account. OBJECTIVE This study aims to investigate how long-term migrant trajectories, other relevant life course factors, and birth cohort impacted the risk of return migration later in life in the period 1900–1994. METHODS Using longitudinal data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands, we combine sequence analysis and continuous-time event history analysis for recurrent events to estimate the effect of migrant trajectories from birth to age 50 and other individual characteristics on the risks of older adults’ return migrations to birth/childhood and adulthood dwelling places; of short-, medium-, and long-distance returns; and of returns to rural and urban dwelling places. We also examine if these risks have changed in the 20th century Netherlands. RESULTS We identify nine distinct clusters of internal migrant trajectories based on residential municipality size. Persons with a stepwise migration trajectory are more likely to return later in life to places where they resided during adulthood. Deteriorating health status, low socioeconomic status, or having no partner are associated with a higher propensity to return to a birthplace or childhood dwelling place. However, returns to places of origin or childhood, to places of adulthood, and long-distance migrations decreased over time.
Abstract: BACKGROUND The phenomenon of fertility stalls in Africa has recently received much attention in the literature yet hasn’t led to clear-cut conclusions. OBJECTIVE We test the robustness of past findings by comparing alternative definitions and by extending the sample to most recent years. We further propose the concept of a conditional fertility stall, identifying countries that have a relatively high level of fertility despite a relatively high level of socioeconomic development. METHODS We use aggregate and survey data from various sources, describe variation in fertility across countries, and relate differences using regression techniques to socioeconomic covariates. We use predicted residuals to identify deviations from expected levels and define these as conditional fertility stalls. RESULTS The fertility in some countries, such as Nigeria and Uganda, is too high given their level of GDP per capita, female education, and child mortality. Here noneconomic conditions seem to hold back the transition. Other countries, such as Nepal and Bangladesh, have a continuation of the transition that seems to require further economic development: In these countries, fertility is just at or even below the level that the prevailing economic conditions predict. CONCLUSIONS Our concept shows that long-lasting unconditional fertility stalls are rare and that a slowdown of the fertility transition can in many cases be explained by a stagnation in socioeconomic development. Policy recommendations should take this distinction between unconditional and conditional fertility stalls into consideration.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Many studies have observed that religion plays an important role in determining inequalities in mortality outcomes before the mortality decline in late 19th century Europe. Yet, it is difficult to pinpoint what exactly caused the mortality advantage observed for Jewish populations before the start of the demographic transition. OBJECTIVE To explore an alternative approach to the observed Jewish mortality advantage by comparing differences and similarities in various cause-specific mortality rates in Amsterdam’s 50 neighbourhoods in the mid-19th century. RESULTS Jewish neighbourhoods had an overall mortality advantage, which was reflected in lower infant, respiratory, diarrhoeal, and smallpox death rates. Only in the cholera epidemic did the Jewish neighbourhoods not experience this health advantage. CONCLUSIONS Before the mortality decline, individual (and community) behaviours could already have been having an important impact on inequalities in health, although not for all diseases.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Public childcare provision and female labor force participation (FLP) have strongly increased over the past decades in European societies. However, studies offer heterogeneous findings on the link between public childcare and FLP. OBJECTIVE We investigate the link between public childcare and FLP, using different indicators of childcare and accounting for heterogeneous time trends and regional heterogeneity. METHODS Based on a balanced panel of all German counties from 2007 to 2017, we estimate the effect of an increasing enrollment rate for children aged 0–2 and 3–5 on FLP. We compare fixed effect (FE) and fixed effect individual slope estimators (FEIS) to control for county-specific time trends. Subsequently, we compare the results across regions with different levels of urbanization. RESULTS We find that most FE results are biased due to selection on trends. Still, when accounting for selection on trends, childcare enrollment for the age group 0–2 increases FLP in West Germany and in urban areas. Furthermore, childcare enrollment for children aged 3–5 years is associated with higher FLP in West Germany, in rural and, most strongly, in metropolitan areas. CONCLUSIONS Our study highlights important heterogeneity in the general time trends of FLP and the effectiveness of childcare arrangements across different regions in Germany.
Abstract: BACKGROUND The European model of integration of recent immigrants is characterised by a trade-off between employment and job quality, which takes different forms in Southern and Continental Europe. In Mediterranean countries, migrants have similar employment opportunities as natives, but they have high risks of entering the lowest strata of the occupational structure. In Continental Europe the trade-off is reversed: Migrants have lower employment opportunities, but once employed, they face a lower penalisation in terms of job quality than the one faced by immigrants living in Southern Europe. OBJECTIVE This work focuses on the regional heterogeneity of the model of inclusion of recent immigrants in the European labour markets, analysing how migrant–native gaps in wages and in the probability of (dependent) employment change across areas of the same country. Is the trade-off between employment and job quality confirmed when regional differences are considered' Are there gender differences in the models of inclusion' METHODS We used European Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS, 2009–2016) data and applied probit models with sample selection, estimated separately by region and gender. RESULTS Results show substantial regional heterogeneity in the ethnic penalties in Germany and in Southern Europe, especially in Greece and Italy. Moreover, when regional differences within countries were considered, the trade-off model of inclusion was confirmed only among men, while immigrant women’s model of inclusion turned out to be more mixed, with some European areas conforming to a ‘double-penalty’ model, whereas other areas showed patterns of immigrant disadvantage in line with an ‘integration’ model.
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