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Abstract: Objectives The paper studies the impact of predictive policing on crime in a developing country. It also assesses the impact of different police trainings. Method We analyze a randomized controlled trial conducted in Montevideo, Uruguay to assess the implementation of a predictive policing software developed in the United States. Half of the precincts were randomly assigned to the software and half to the local crime analysts (status quo). The second experiment allocated randomly a specially trained police force to targeted patrol areas per shift and day. Results No statistically significant differences were found in crime outcomes between the precincts assigned to the foreign predictive software and those assigned to local crime analysts. On the second experiment, given determined targeted places, the specially trained task force showed more compliance with the assigned patrol sites (20% more patrol time) and a greater potential for reducing crime (reduction of 30% in robberies only during high crime shifts in comparison to the control group (no special training). There is also evidence of a diffusion of benefits to adjacent areas. Conclusions The implementation of an international predictive policing software did not outperform local crime analysts in terms of crime reduction. Local crime analysts are more cost-effective. Given determined targeted places, a modest increase in police dosage of a specially trained police force could reduce crime in high-crime times. In developing countries new policing technologies and training require a deep understanding of the context to channel limited resources in the most efficient way. PubDate: 2023-12-01
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Abstract: Objectives Examine the degree of crime concentration at micro-places across six large cities, the spatial clustering of high and low crime micro-places within cities, the presence of outliers within those clusters, and extent to which there is stability and change in micro-place classification over time. Methods Using crime incident data gathered from six U.S. municipal police departments (Chicago, Los Angeles, New York City, Philadelphia, San Antonio, and Seattle) and aggregated to the street segment, Local Moran’s I is calculated to identify statistically significant high and low crime clusters across each city and outliers within those clusters that differ significantly from their local spatial neighbors. Results Within cities, the proportion of segments that are like their neighbors and fall within a statistically significant high or low crime cluster are relatively stable over time. For all cities, the largest proportion of street segments fell into the same classification over time (47.5% to 69.3%); changing segments were less common (4.7% to 20.5%). Changing clusters (i.e., segments that fell into both low and high clusters during the study) were rare. Outliers in each city reveal statistically significant street-to-street variability. Conclusions The findings revealed similarities across cities, including considerable stability over time in segment classification. There were also cross-city differences that warrant further investigation, such as varying levels of spatial clustering. Understanding stable and changing clusters and outliers offers an opportunity for future research to explore the mechanisms that shape a city’s spatiotemporal crime patterns to inform strategic resource allocation at smaller spatial scales. PubDate: 2023-12-01
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Abstract: Objectives We examine the relationship between incarceration rates individuals experience in their thirties and the crime conditions they experienced throughout their youth. Methods We employ a cross state panel data regression design to assess how the crime conditions state/birth-year cohort members experienced from adolescence through their twenties impacts their incarceration rates in their early thirties. Results Birth-year cohorts who experienced higher crime during adolescence had substantially higher incarceration rates in their early thirties than birth-year cohorts in the same state who experienced lower crime during adolescence. By contrast, the crime rates state/birth-year cohorts experienced during their late teens and early twenties have little systematic relationship with their incarceration rates in their thirties. Conclusions The crime conditions individuals are exposed to during adolescence appear to be pivotal with respect to their long-term connections with the criminal justice system. PubDate: 2023-12-01
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Abstract: Objectives This study examines the role of law enforcement procedures for environmental offenses. We test whether reaching the statute of limitations is associated with the recidivism of offenses against the flora in Brazil. Methods We analyze the universe of infractions issued by Brazil’s Federal Environmental Agency from 2000 to 2010 using survival analysis and reweighting methods. Results Findings indicate that reaching the statute of limitations in administrative procedures increases the risk of recidivism for individuals by 188% and firms by 34%. Conclusion Ineffective sentencing practices stimulate repeated offenses against the environment and have significant consequences for environmental degradation in Brazil, a country that is central for actions to mitigate global environmental change. PubDate: 2023-12-01
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Abstract: Objectives This paper assesses the impact of the new regime of non-custodial sanctions implemented in Chile in 2013. It aims to contribute to the evidence regarding structural changes in systems involving non-custodial sanctions. Methods To identify the causal effect of the new regime of non-custodial sanctions on recidivism, we perform three complementary estimations. First, a before and after regression model of recidivism was estimated. Second, in order to compare cohorts with non-custodial and custodial sanctions, we build a difference-in-difference estimation to control for time-invariant confounding factors. Additionally, we use controls to address potential differences across groups not related to the change in treatment status. Third, we estimate the yearly effect through difference-in-differences for multiple periods. Results The results suggest a small statistically significant increase of 1.54 percentage points in the recidivism rate, attributable to the reform of non-custodial sanctions during the first year of its implementation. After that, the reform impact on recidivism begins to stabilise at zero. Conclusions The results are consistent with a neutral scenario whereby the recidivism rate eventually remains stable after the reform was implemented despite the increase in the number of people sentenced. Considering that the reform helped to decongest prisons, a neutral scenario on recidivism seems favourable for the Chilean penal system. PubDate: 2023-12-01
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Abstract: Objectives Assess the extent to which measurement error in police recorded crime rates impact the estimates of regression models exploring the causes and consequences of crime. Methods We focus on linear models where crime rates are included either as the response or as an explanatory variable, in their original scale or log-transformed. Two measurement error mechanisms are considered, systematic errors in the form of under-recorded crime, and random errors in the form of recording inconsistencies across areas. The extent to which such measurement error mechanisms impact model parameters is demonstrated algebraically using formal notation, and graphically using simulations. Results The impact of measurement error is highly variable across different settings. Depending on the crime type, the spatial resolution, but also where and how police recorded crime rates are introduced in the model, the measurement error induced biases could range from negligible to severe, affecting even estimates from explanatory variables free of measurement error. We also demonstrate how in models where crime rates are introduced as the response variable, the impact of measurement error could be eliminated using log-transformations. Conclusions The validity of a large share of the evidence base exploring the effects and consequences of crime is put into question. In interpreting findings from the literature relying on regression models and police recorded crime rates, we urge researchers to consider the biasing effects shown here. Future studies should also anticipate the impact in their findings and employ sensitivity analysis if the expected measurement error induced bias is non-negligible. PubDate: 2023-12-01
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Abstract: Objectives I examine housing instability among individuals with a felony conviction but no incarceration history relative to formerly incarcerated individuals as a means of separating the effect of felon status from that of incarceration per se—a distinction often neglected in prior research. I consider mechanisms and whether this relationship varies based on gender, race/ethnicity, time since conviction, and type of offense. Methods I use National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 data and restricted comparison group, individual fixed effects, and sibling fixed effects models to examine residential mobility and temporary housing residence during early adulthood. Results I find robust evidence that never-incarcerated individuals with felony convictions experience elevated risk of housing instability and residential mobility, even after adjusting for important mediators like financial resources and relationships. The evidence that incarceration has an additional, independent effect on housing instability is weaker, however, suggesting that the association between incarceration and housing instability found in prior studies may largely be driven by conviction status. Conclusions These findings reveal that conviction, independent of incarceration, introduces instability into the lives of the 12 million Americans who have been convicted of a felony but never imprisoned. Thus, research that attempts to identify an incarceration effect by comparing outcomes to convicted individuals who receive non-custodial sentences may obscure the important independent effect of conviction. Moreover, these findings highlight that the socioeconomic effects of criminal justice contact are broader than incarceration-focused research suggests. Consequently, reform efforts promoting the use of community corrections over incarceration may do less to reduce the harm of criminal justice contact than expected. PubDate: 2023-12-01
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Abstract: Objectives It is well established that defendants who plead guilty receive reduced sentences compared to the likely outcome if convicted at trial. Prominent theories of plea bargaining posit that the plea discount is determined by the strength of the evidence against the defendant. Research on this claim has produced mixed findings, however, and others have suggested that discounts may be influenced by extra-legal characteristics such as race, age, and sex. To date, there have been few attempts to directly compare the effects of these factors on plea discount estimates. Methods This study uses a penalized ridge regression to predict counterfactual trial sentences for a sample of defendants who pled guilty. Plea discounts are estimated using each defendant’s predicted trial sentence and observed plea sentence. Discount estimates are then regressed on variables related to case evidence and the demographic characteristics of the defendant. Results Results suggest that increases in the amount of evidence associated with a case lead to decreases in the size of the plea discount. Both main and interaction effects are observed for race/ethnicity and sex, with Hispanic and male defendants receiving significantly smaller discounts than White or female defendants. Calculation of standardized effect sizes further indicates that demographic characteristics exert larger effects on plea discount estimates than evidentiary variables. Conclusions Plea discounts appear to be influenced by both evidence and extra-legal factors. Legal participants may indeed consider the strength of the evidence when determining acceptable plea discounts, but this alone appears to be an insufficient explanation. PubDate: 2023-12-01
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Abstract: Objective The goal of this study is to examine how the age-crime distribution in South Korea has shifted over time and the role of cohorts in driving this shift. This study highlights the impact of social change and historical events on cohort effects, potentially leading to shifts in the age-crime distribution.. Methods Age-Period-Cohort-Interaction (APC-I) models are estimated on age-specific-arrest statistics for offenses in South Korea from 1967 and 2011. The APC-I models take into account the interdependence of age, period, and cohort, thus permitting the identification of inter-and intra-cohort differences in crime over the life course. Results The age-crime distribution in South Korea has changed over time to an older peak age of arrest. Korean baby boomers born between 1955 and 1963 have a higher risk of arrest earlier in life than other cohorts, perpetuating an overall increased risk over the life course. Conclusion Changes in socio-historical conditions differentiate crime trajectories across cohorts over the life course. Thus, this study suggests that social change and historical events impact the age-crime dynamics in South Korea. PubDate: 2023-09-19
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Abstract: Objectives Evaluate the impact of missing data on observed racial disparities in the likelihood of an incarceration sentence, given that complete case analysis in the common analytic approach used in criminological research. Methods Using a simulation study with data based on cases sentenced in the Court of Common Pleas in Pennsylvania between 2010 and 2019, we assess the differences in the likelihood of incarceration between similarly situated White and Black defendants based on varying sample sizes and patterns of missing data. Results Complete case analysis (CCA) of incomplete data can fail to provide unbiased estimates of the race effect, even with less than 10% of cases missing. The degree of bias introduced depends on the amount, pattern, assumptions, and treatment of missing data. Multiple imputation provides an established, valid methodology for the unbiased estimation of race effects when data are missing at random, and this holds across sample sizes and number of imputations. Conclusions The existence and magnitude of race effects on the likelihood of an incarceration sentence can vary greatly based on the degree, pattern, assumptions, and treatment of missing data. Limitations include that missing data mechanisms cannot be truly known outside of a data simulation. Future sentencing research should prioritize the identification, treatment, and reporting of missing data prior to isolating race effects, in line with calls from the field for more open science practices. Sensitivity analyses should also be prioritized. PubDate: 2023-09-16
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Abstract: Objectives We aim to encourage scholars who conduct cross-national criminological studies to routinely assess measurement invariance (MI), that is, verify if multi-item instruments that capture latent constructs are conceptualized and understood similarily across different populations. To promote the adoption of MI tests, we present an analytical protocol, including an annotated R script and output file. We implement the protocol and, doing so, document the first test of configural, metric, and scalar invariance of the three-factor Morally Debatable Behavior Scale (MDBS). Methods We worked with data from wave seven of the World Values Survey (WVS). Applying multi-group confirmatory factor analyses, we, first, explored invariance of the MDBS in 44 countries (N = 59,482). Next, we conducted analyses separately for seven South-american, six South-east Asian, six East-asian, two North American and Australasian, and all four Anglophone countries. Results The MDBS displays an overall lack of invariance. However, we confirmed configural invariance of the MDBS for the South-east Asian sample, metric invariance in the sample of Anglophone countries, and scalar invariance for the Australasian and North American countries. Conclusions Wave seven of the WVS can be used for latent mean score comparisons of the MDBS between the Australasian and North American countries. Associative relationships can be compared in the larger Anglophone sub-sample. Taken together, MI must be tested, and cannot be assumed, even when analyzing data from countries for which previous research has established cultural similarities. Our protocol and practical recommendations guide researchers in this process. PubDate: 2023-09-04 DOI: 10.1007/s10940-023-09578-9
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Abstract: Objectives Government officials use criminal records as proxies for past conduct to decide who and how to investigate, arrest, charge, and punish. But those records may be racially biased measures of individual behavior. This paper develops a theoretical definition of bias in criminal records in terms of measurement error. It then seeks to provide empirical estimates of racial bias in official arrest records for a broad swath of offenses. Method I use official arrest and self-reported crime data from the Pathways to Desistance study to estimate Black-to-white and Hispanic-to-white crime ratios conditional on arrest. I also develop a novel, theory-based empirical test of differential reporting across racial and ethnic groups. Results Compared to white subjects with the same number of arrests, I estimate that Black subjects committed 53, 30, 23, and 56% fewer property, violent, drug, and DUI offenses, respectively, and that Hispanic subjects committed 19 and 46% fewer drug and DUI offenses. The analysis finds relatively little evidence of differential reporting that would bias my estimates upwards, with the possible exception of drug trafficking offenses. Conclusion The results provide evidence that Pathways subjects’ arrest records are racially biased measures of their past criminal behavior, which could bias decisions of criminal justice officials and risk assessment algorithms that are based on arrest records. PubDate: 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10940-023-09575-y
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Abstract: Objectives We reconstruct the networks of officers co-involved in force incidents to test whether interactions with weapon-prone peers impact firearm use. Methods We draw from a statewide dataset of force incidents across law enforcement agencies in New Jersey, and employ conditional likelihood models to estimate whether exposure to peers with histories of firearm use is associated with an officer’s own likelihood of firearm use net of other contextual confounders. Results We find preliminary evidence that officer firearm behaviors, including drawing, pointing, and discharging a firearm, is influenced by an officer’s peers. Greater exposure to colleagues with histories of firearm use is associated with a lower risk of using a firearm. We also find that officer features, including experience and race/ethnicity, are associated with the risk of firearm use. Conclusions Our study suggests officers’ peers structure the risk of firearm use. Our data allow us to look at time order and rule out situational confounders pertaining to firearm use; however, do not allow us to infer causality. We discuss the study’s implications for understanding firearm behaviors and the role of network science in moving policing research forward. PubDate: 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10940-022-09546-9
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Abstract: Objectives To provide a detailed understanding of how the prevalence and frequency of offending vary with age in the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) and to quantify the influence of early childhood risk factors such as high troublesomeness on this variation. Methods We develop a statistical model for the prevalence and frequency of offending based on the hurdle model and curves called splines that allow smooth variation with age. We use the Bayesian framework to quantify estimation uncertainty. We also test a model that assumes that frequency is constant across all ages. Results For 346 males from the CSDD for whom the number of offenses at all ages from 10 to 61 are recorded, we found peaks in the prevalence of offending around ages 16 to 18. Whilst there were strong differences in prevalence between males of high troublesomeness and those of lower troublesomeness up to age 45, the level of troublesomeness had a weaker effect on the frequency of offenses, and this lasted only up to age 20. The risk factors of low nonverbal IQ, poor parental supervision and low family income affect how prevalence varies with age in a similar way, but their influence on the variation of frequency with age is considerably weaker. We also provide examples of quantifying the uncertainty associated with estimates of interesting quantities such as variations in offending prevalence across levels of troublesomeness. Conclusions Our methodology provides a quantified understanding of the effects of risk factors on age-crime curves. Our visualizations allow these to be easily presented and interpreted. PubDate: 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10940-022-09544-x
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Abstract: Objectives Brokers are said to be the oiling chain of illicit networks, facilitating the efficient flow of illicit products to destination. Yet, most of the available brokerage measures focus on local or individual networks, missing the brokers who connect others across communities, such as market levels. This study introduces a robust measure that uncovers, scores, and positions these community brokers. Methods We used network data aggregated from numerous investigations related to 1,800 criminal entrepreneurs operating in Western Canada. After uncovering the communities using the Leiden algorithm, we developed a community brokerage score that assesses individual potential reach and control at the meso level, and that accounts for individual position changes due to different community structures. We examined how the score relates to brokerage and structural hole measures as well as seriousness of involvement in criminality. Results We found that the illicit network studied has a strong and stable community structure, and community brokers form about 9% of the population. The score developed is statistically robust and is not strongly related to network and structural hole measures, which confirms the need for a novel measure that captures this strategic position in illicit and other networks. Conclusions Community brokers are especially important in illicit networks where large-scale covert coordination among criminal entrepreneurs is risky. The measure we propose is not overlapping with currently existing brokerage measures and has the potential to contribute to our understanding of how products and information flow beyond local networks, in criminology and other fields. PubDate: 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10940-022-09549-6
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Abstract: Objectives Scholars and practitioners have paid increasing attention to problematic properties, but little is known about how they emerge and evolve. We examine four phenomena suggested by life-course theory that reflect stability and change in crime and disorder at properties: onset of issues; persistence of issues; aggravation to more serious types of issues; and desistance of issues. We sought to identify the frequency and dynamics of each. Methods We analyze how residential parcels (similar to properties) in Boston, MA shifted between profiles of crime and disorder from 2011 to 2018. 911 dispatches and 311 requests provided six measures of physical disorder, social disorder, and violence for all parcels. K-means clustering placed each parcel into one of six profiles of crime and disorder for each year. Markov chains quantified how properties moved between profiles year-to-year. Results Onset was relatively infrequent and more often manifested as disorder than violence. Pathways of aggravation led from less serious profiles to a mixture of violence and disorder. Desistance was more likely to occur as de-escalations along these pathways then complete cessation of issues. In neighborhoods with above-average crime, persistence was more prevalent whereas desistance less often culminated in cessation, even relative to local expectations. Conclusions The results offer insights for further research and practice attentive to trends of crime and disorder at problematic properties. It especially speaks to the understanding of stability and change; the role of different types of disorder; and the toolkit needed for problem properties interventions. PubDate: 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10940-022-09542-z
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Abstract: Objectives Drawing on criminological research about peer delinquency and self-control, we employ a network perspective to identify the potential paths linking impulsivity, peers, and delinquency. We systematically integrate relevant processes into a set of dynamic network models that evaluate these interconnected pathways. Methods Our analyses use data from more than 14,000 students in Pennsylvania and Iowa collected from the evaluation of the PROSPER partnership model. We estimate longitudinal social network models to disentangle the paths through which impulsivity and delinquency are linked in adolescent friendship networks. Results We find evidence of both peer influence and homophilic selection for both impulsivity and delinquency. Further, results indicate that peer impulsivity is linked to individual delinquent behavior through peer influence on delinquency, but not on impulsivity. Finally, the results suggest that impulsivity moderates both influence and selection processes, as adolescents with higher levels of impulsivity are more likely to select delinquent peers but less likely to change their behavior due to peers. Conclusions In sum, this study offers a more holistic framework and stronger theoretical tests than similar studies of the past. Our results illustrate the need to consider the simultaneous network processes related to peers, impulsivity, and delinquency. Further, our findings reveal that a large dataset with ample statistical power is a valuable advantage for detecting the selection processes that shape friendship networks. PubDate: 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10940-022-09547-8
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Abstract: Objective This study examines the mechanisms underpinning the emergence of violence among individuals in the organized crime milieu. Methods Relying on criminal event data recorded by a UK Police Force, we apply a longitudinal network approach to study violent interactions among offenders. The data span the period from 2000 to 2016 and include 6,234 offenders and 23,513 organized crime-related events. Instead of aggregating these data over time, we use a relational event-based approach to take into consideration the order of events. We employ an actor-oriented framework to model offenders’ victim choices in 156 violent events in the OC milieu. Results We find that the choice of offenders to target a particular victim is strongly affected by their mutual history. A violent act is often preceded by a previous act of violence, both in the form of repeated violence and reciprocated violence. We show that violence is strongly associated with prior co-offending turning sour. We uncover a strong effect for previous harassment as a retaliation cum escalation mechanism. Finally, we find evidence of conflicts within organized crime groups and of violence being directed to offenders with the same ethnic background. Conclusions Relational effects on victimization are consistently stronger than the effects of individual characteristics. Therefore, from a policy perspective, we believe that relational red flags (or risk factors) should play a more central role. A focus on harassment could be valuable in the development of an early intervention strategy. PubDate: 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10940-022-09540-1
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Abstract: Objectives In light of empirical findings suggesting no substantive main effects of an incarcerated person’s (IP’s) race or ethnicity on the odds of placement in restrictive housing (RH) for rule violations, we investigated whether these effects are dependent on offense severity and context, including characteristics of facilities that could theoretically increase stakeholder reliance on biased stereotypes and also prison staff members’ perceptions of danger and order in a facility. Methods Multilevel analyses of race and ethnicity effects on RH decisions, both at the time of the incident (pre-trial) and after the rule infraction hearing, were conducted for all persons admitted to Ohio’s prisons between 2007 and 2016 and found guilty of prison rule violations (N1 = 81,673; N2 = 33). Results We found no significant main effects of an IP’s race or ethnicity on the odds of RH placement for rule infractions, either at the time of the incident or as punishment after a hearing, once the types of violations were controlled. Upon further investigation, we found that African American and Latinx IPs were more likely to receive RH for certain insubordination-related violations, which may invoke greater punitive discretion. Race effects were also stronger in prisons with tighter security, where officers generally relied less on IPs’ acknowledgements of their formal authority for rule enforcement, and in facilities for men. Conclusions Variance in the magnitude of racial and ethnic disparities in the use of RH for rule violations makes sense across prison settings and, as opposed to general race and ethnicity effects, should guide our understanding of the sources of these disparities with the goal of reducing their impacts. PubDate: 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10940-022-09548-7
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Abstract: Objectives This paper estimates the effect of changes in street lighting at night on levels of crime at street-level. Analyses investigate spatial and temporal displacement of crime into adjacent streets. Methods Offense data (burglaries, robberies, theft of and theft from vehicles, and violent crime) were obtained from Thames Valley Police, UK. Street lighting data (switching lights off at midnight, dimming, and white light) were obtained from local authorities. Monthly counts of crime at street-level were analyzed using a conditional fixed-effects Poisson regression model, adjusting for seasonal and temporal variation. Two sets of models analyzed: (1) changes in night-time crimes adjusting for changes in day-time crimes and (2) changes in crimes at all times of the day. Results Switching lights off at midnight was strongly associated with a reduction in night-time theft from vehicles relative to daytime (rate ratio RR 0.56; 0.41–0.78). Adjusted for changes in daytime, night-time theft from vehicles increased (RR 1.55; 1.14–2.11) in adjacent roads where street lighting remained unchanged. Conclusion Theft from vehicle offenses reduced in streets where street lighting was switched off at midnight but may have been displaced to better-lit adjacent streets. Relative to daytime, night-time theft from vehicle offenses reduced in streets with dimming while theft from vehicles at all times of the day increased, thus suggesting temporal displacement. These findings suggest that the absence of street lighting may prevent theft from vehicles, but there is a danger of offenses being temporally or spatially displaced. PubDate: 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10940-022-09539-8
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