Authors:Anthony Rodin Abstract: Two of the biggest issues in international politics today are climate change and the ongoing power transition between the United States and China. However, very few works examine the way these issues interact with each other. This paper attempts to resolve this by integrating climate change into power transition theory (PTT), which attempts to capture the behavior of states in the midst of transition to or from global power. This paper first analyzes the literatures on the (tenuous) links between environmental degradation and interstate conflict as well as PTT. Opportunities for integration are then examined, especially focusing on climate change's impact on the central variables of power and state satisfaction. These theoretical links are then applied to the looming US-Sino transition and highlight how climate change opens up new arenas of great power competition, exacerbates tensions and impacts relative power in unpredictable ways. PubDate: Sat, 04 Jun 2022 13:31:25 PDT
Authors:Mehdi Shiva et al. Abstract: Whether or not a country is likely to encounter an internal armed conflict is considered in the literature to depend, among other things, on its extent of economic and political development. Using a dataset covering 139 countries over the 1961-2011 period, we find that a country’s per capita income has an unambiguously negative effect on the probability that it encounters an armed conflict as long as it does not suffer from a severe political instability. In contrast, countries that experience severe political instability are more likely to encounter an armed conflict the higher is their per capita income. The policy implication of our result is clear: safeguarding political stability during hard times is essential – and should take precedence over enhancing democracy and economic growth – for reducing the risk of internal armed conflicts. Our findings do not undermine the importance of protecting democratic institution or accountability, but underscore the importance of collaboration across opposing parties to progress while preserving the political stability. PubDate: Sat, 04 Jun 2022 13:31:20 PDT
Authors:Joe Devanny et al. Abstract: Over the last decade, "cyber power" has become an increasingly prominent concept and instrument of national strategy. This article explores the nature of contemporary cyber power, focusing on how states should respond to "cyber uncertainty." Cases of cyber operations against Estonia, Georgia, and Ukraine, as well as cyber operations conducted (and suffered) by the United States, highlight the evolving role of cyber operations as an instrument of statecraft. Given the complexity of cyber forensics and the polluted information environment of the global public sphere, the public diplomacy of coordinated attribution statements cannot be expected to cut through conclusively or uniformly. States must therefore organise themselves effectively to produce and implement coherent cyber strategy, improving their relational cyber power. This should focus on cyber security and resilience, but also including effective cyber diplomacy, and assessment of what sovereign offensive capabilities are desirable and feasible. PubDate: Sat, 04 Jun 2022 13:31:11 PDT
Authors:Anubhav S. Goswami Abstract: China’s vastly increased economic and military might has alarmed the United States about sustaining its relative power in the world. Observing the growing influence of Beijing in the international world order, experts of ‘great power competition’ are now asking: What will be the reaction of the United States once China achieves parity or even comes close to achieving parity with Washington' As could be expected from its nature, the question has generated sharp polarising viewpoints but none has spawned more interest and controversy than Harvard Professor Graham T. Allison’s ‘Thucydides’ Trap’ discourse which argues that China’s spectacular rise could lead to a violent yet avoidable war with the United States along the lines of previous conflicts between a ruling power and a rising power. This study describes that if the United States continues to pursue its hegemonic grand strategy, it will accelerate the conflict which might trigger the Thucydides’ trap with China. The aim and objective of this study is to recommend a revision in the United States grand strategy from hegemony to a ‘balancing’ strategy to reduce the risk of strategic rivalry with China turning into a full-blown war. PubDate: Sat, 04 Jun 2022 13:31:06 PDT
Authors:Ciwan M. Can Abstract: This article explains why existing great powers can engage in cooperative relations with rising great powers that fuel the rise of the latter into competitors. By adopting a temporal theoretical lens and providing an examination of US-China relations in the post-Cold War era, it is argued that uncertainty about Chinese long-term intentions, economic benefits from cooperation, and the existence of other clear and imminent challenges to address incentivized the US to adopt a cooperative policy towards China. Assertive moves by China from the late 2000s onwards that the United States perceived to be indications of long-term malign intentions, the emergence of economic competition, and the fading of other challenges to US interests by the 2010s, removed these incentives for engagement and consequently led to a change from cooperative to competitive policies. This article is aimed to address the crucial questions of why the United States helped accelerate the rise of China into a peer competitor, and why that policy has changed to one in which the United States now has engaged in strategic competition with China. PubDate: Sat, 04 Jun 2022 13:31:00 PDT
Authors:Brian L. Alcorn et al. Abstract: Intelligence officers often interact in culturally diverse settings different from the settings in which they grew up. Yet, there is a lack of academic research about the integration of culture and the study of intelligence. Researchers have made Cultural Intelligence (CQ) measurable via the Cultural Intelligence Scale (CQS) and successfully applied it in the business world as a predictor of success in multi-cultural environments. This article describes an application of the CQS, using the Observer Report questionnaire to assess the memoirs of three successful intelligence officers to ascertain the degree that CQ applies to the success of officers in United States Intelligence Community (USIC) in multicultural environments. The study results indicated each intelligence officer possessed a high degree of cultural intelligence that assisted in the course of their duties and the CQS is a good assessment tool to measure cultural intelligence.Keywords: Cultural intelligence, Cultural Intelligence Scale, CQS, Cultural Intelligence Quotient PubDate: Sat, 05 Mar 2022 11:55:53 PST
Authors:Smita Athanere et al. Abstract: Enterprises choose to keep their data on the cloud to allow for flexible and efficient data exchange among their authorized staff when dealing with huge data. However, during the sharing of sensitive data, data security and users privacy has become major challenges. Most of the existing studies have several limitations, including weak model security, single point of failure, and lack of efficiency during user revocation. This article proposes cloud storage based Hierarchical Multi-authority Access Control Scheme (HMA-ACS) for secure and efficient data sharing. Through theoretical analysis, this article proves that the proposed mechanism efficiently performs cryptographic key operations and secured plus adaptive in the standard model while supporting the access policies. Furthermore, the proposed approach evaluated and compared recent state-of-art schemes in terms of storage overhead, computation overhead, average encryption, and decryption performance. Experimental results analysis shows that the proposed solution is resistant to many types of security threats and ensures data privacy when sharing data in the cloud. PubDate: Sat, 05 Mar 2022 11:55:48 PST
Authors:Łukasz Szymankiewicz PhD Abstract: The research problem of this article is the process of evolution of aviation terrorism over the years as illustrated by attacks against El Al airlines, with special reference to the research perspective of the security system. The author embarks on verifying the hypothesis that aviation terrorism is changing phenomenon which has been accompanied over the years by increasingly brutal methods and effects of the attacks, transforming aviation terrorism from a medium of communication to a tool for causing maximum damage. Employing the genealogical method, the author analysed 52 terrorist attacks from the years 1968 to 2012, whereby he attempted to answer the research question of "How has the phenomenon of aviation terrorism evolved over the years'" PubDate: Sat, 05 Mar 2022 11:55:42 PST
Authors:John P. Sullivan et al. Abstract: This article looks at the evolution of US domestic intelligence prior to and since 9/11 in light of the Capitol attacks. It also reviews the literature and practice of intelligence reform in the context of foreign comparative experience (France, UK, Canada, Australia). It looks at the promise of fusion centers, cocontemporay domestic intelligence models, and the continuing need for domestic intelligence reform.Additional Keywords: Domestic Intelligence, Intelligence Reform, Intelligence Fusion PubDate: Sat, 05 Mar 2022 11:55:35 PST
Authors:Jonathan Honigman Abstract: Although they have proven themselves to be loyal and capable U.S. partners, America has refused to endorse either independence for Iraqi Kurds or autonomy for Syrian Kurds. That policy has been academically underscored by several Realism-based concepts including an offshore balancing approach to the Middle East. This paper argues that America can adjust to new realities in the region without having to forsake its worthwhile Kurdish partnerships. I first compare and contrast the costs of American support for Kurds and then refute the notion that Kurdish independence in Iraq or autonomy in Syria would cause instability or be nonviable. I then recount recent Kurdish actions that have benefited America and argue that the subsequent U.S. capitulations to Baghdad and Ankara were unnecessary and strategically short-sighted. Lastly, I examine America’s relationship with Turkey to discern if it merits impeding U.S. Kurdish policy. This paper concludes that America’s endorsement of independence in Iraqi Kurdistan and perpetual autonomy in Northeast Syria would not be merely altruistic, but primarily a realpolitik reassertion of U.S. geopolitical strategy. PubDate: Sat, 05 Mar 2022 11:55:29 PST
Authors:Feriha Peracha et al. Abstract: This article reports on the results of an intervention to promote cognitive complexity (measured by integrative complexity, IC) and perspective taking for youth detained for violent extremism at the Sabaoon Center for Deradicalization and Rehabilitation in northern Pakistan. Participants are sixty-four males (mean age 19.77, SD = 3.26) comprising three cohorts: CVE Detained, CVE Reintegrated, and PVE At-risk.The Sabaoon IC intervention consists of eight sessions with action learning contextualized according to an assessment of the push, pull and personal factors that shape the life experience of the youth. Pre and post testing results show significant gain in IC in the overall sample (Cohen’s d= -1.80, 95% CI[-.87,-.49]), and in each cohort, indicating significantly increased ability to perceive validity in one’s own changing views and others’ differing views along with reduction in derogating or dehumanizing outgroups. Oral presentations showed expected IC scores showing differentiation, with the Reintegrated cohort showing higher order integrations and expressed confidence to be change-makers in their communities.Two subscales from the Violent Extremist Beliefs Survey (concerning beliefs about inter-religious harmony and risk-taking behaviors) showed expected changes, but self-report perspective taking and empathy measures were insignificant.Limitations: The entire Sabaoon sample was selected for the intervention, and due to time and operational constraints, it was not feasible to recruit a control group matched on important variables.Implications for using IC measurement and method for detained and at risk populations are discussed. PubDate: Sat, 05 Mar 2022 11:55:19 PST
Authors:Samuel Zilincik Abstract: It is common, though erroneous, to think of rational and emotional decision-making as being opposed to each other. The binary distinction originated in Western philosophy and subsequently spread to other fields, including strategic studies. Strategic studies scholarship has nurtured this binary in two mainstream traditions, classical strategic theory and the coercion school. The distinction is fallacious because all strategically relevant decisions are emotional, and many of these decisions can be rational. Abandoning the false dichotomy is necessary for the field to remain relevant and for strategists to better understand their choices and the decisions made by their adversaries. Accordingly, this article proposes a new way of thinking about the role of emotions in strategic decision-making, one that starts from the appreciation that all strategically relevant choices are emotional. PubDate: Sat, 05 Mar 2022 11:55:13 PST
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