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Abstract: Abstract We analyze the reporting response to an ambitiously targeted government support scheme for Norwegian businesses at the very start of the Coronavirus crisis in 2020. Our empirical design is based on cross-checking self-reported data in the applications for support with administratively reported data used for VAT. We find strong evidence that strategic misreporting was present but conclude that its remaining quantitative extent after enforcement actions already taken by the tax authorities was relatively small. Firms tend to misreport 4% more often than expected, and the actual support paid out was 5% higher than it should have been. We discuss possible reasons for the relatively limited extent of non-compliance and more general lessons for the design of transfer programs. PubDate: 2024-08-13
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Abstract: Abstract We extend Stiglitz (J Public Econ, 17, 213–240,1982) to a dynamic and stochastic optimal taxation model, while assessing the effects of exogenous wage regulations. We show that when wage regulations are imposed, consumption inequality rises more than when they are removed. The results lead to an important policy implication that in the face of exogenous wage regulations, the social planner who can design optimal tax schedule prefers to widen the consumption inequality. From this perspective, the drive to enhance production efficiency outweighs the motivation for redistribution. A conventional wisdom that full employment commitment and minimum wage legislation should serve as a buffer for the minority may not be taken for granted. In the qualitative analysis, we find that as wage regulations tighten, the lower bound of the marginal tax rate on capital rises. Our quantitative result validates that, showing that the marginal tax rate on capital increases to varying degrees in response to wage requirements of varying tightness. PubDate: 2024-08-01
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Abstract: Abstract Public debt and its development are key questions of public sector economics and fiscal policy. This paper uses the Synthetic Control Method to study how different large-scale steps of European integration and the establishment of the EU fiscal framework have affected government debt in EU Member States. The results point to a notable debt-restricting effect of EU membership and the introduction of the Stability and Growth Pact for a large majority of the studied country groupings as well as for individual countries. Outside of a few individual countries, the actual government debt levels are substantially lower than in the synthetic alternatives. PubDate: 2024-08-01
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Abstract: Abstract This paper shows that OECD’s Pillar Two may increase employment and investment in low-tax countries due to the Substance-based Income Exclusion (SBIE). The SBIE allows to tax-deduct payroll costs and user costs of tangible assets twice from the tax base of the top-up tax owed by subsidiaries in low-tax countries. Consequently, it implies that a 15% minimum corporate tax for low-taxed subsidiaries is not achieved if the SBIE is positive. We show that Pillar Two dampens tax-motivated transfer pricing, but changes the employment, investment and import incentives, and that for a sufficiently large cost share of labor and/or capital, the SBIE is equivalent to a production subsidy. PubDate: 2024-08-01
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Abstract: Abstract In this short paper, we build a simple model where a non-welfarist social welfare function can be transformed into and thus be identical to a welfarist social welfare function in form. Our analysis first suggests that non-welfarist methods of policy assessment can also obey the Pareto principle. More broadly, our analysis is a useful input in thinking rigorously about the formal underpinnings of standard welfare economics. PubDate: 2024-08-01
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Abstract: Abstract Given the growing pressure on donors to curtail foreign aid budgets, analyzing the effectiveness of bilateral official development assistance (ODA) in realizing national interests has become more significant than ever. From the viewpoint of economic interests, prior research has revealed that ODA can help expand donor exports and outward foreign direct investments. This study is the first to provide evidence that ODA can also help firms from donor countries to win infrastructure projects in recipient countries. Employing unique contract data on Japanese overseas infrastructure projects, I estimate a fixed effects Poisson model with a panel dataset for 158 recipients for the period between 1970 and 2020. The results suggest that 17% of the total number of overseas infrastructure projects contracted to Japanese firms during 1970–2020 were attributable to Japanese ODA disbursement. I also explore the potential mechanism, finding that the Japanese ODA-infrastructure link is strengthened when Japanese loans and grants are simultaneously provided to a recipient country. This finding is consistent with the view that pre-investment studies conducted as part of technical cooperation could generate goodwill effects on Japanese firms during their bidding for Japanese yen loan projects. PubDate: 2024-08-01
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Abstract: Abstract The 2017 US tax legislation—widely referred to as the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA)—fundamentally transformed the US system of international taxation. It ostensibly ended worldwide taxation but introduced, for instance, a new tax on “Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income”. This paper surveys the emerging empirical literature on the impact of the TCJA’s international provisions. It documents five robust findings in this empirical literature. First, the TCJA led to a general decline in US MNCs’ foreign acquisitions. Second, the TCJA increased US MNCs’ investment in routine foreign tangible assets. Third, the reform did not lead to any change in profit shifting by US MNCs beyond the magnitude that would be expected based on the TCJA’s tax rate reduction. Fourth, The TCJA appears to have reduced the market value of US MNCs relative to domestic US firms. Fifth, the TCJA does not appear to have had any detectable impact on domestic US investment and wages (although there are some contrary results for capital expenditures). The welfare implications of these findings depend crucially on whether US MNCs’ are viewed as having engaged in too much or too little foreign activity prior to the TCJA. This depends on the choice of theoretical framework and the relevant normative benchmark, and cannot readily be resolved empirically. PubDate: 2024-08-01
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Abstract: Abstract This paper analyzes how differences in countries’ preferences for public goods affect the stability of coalitions. In a three-country framework, we show how heterogeneity in public goods preferences can shape countries’ decisions to sign up for capital tax rate harmonization agreements (partial or full). In the context of asymmetric preferences, we identify situations in which these discrepancies make harmonization either cost-effective or harmful. We find that countries with similar preferences have an incentive to commit to capital tax harmonization. However, partial harmonization is only stable if the difference in preferences with the outsider is relatively large. A sufficiently high level of capital supply is also required to limit the effects of tax competition on the outsider. PubDate: 2024-08-01
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Abstract: Abstract We analyse a model in which families may either be ‘traditional’ single-earner that care for the child at home or be ‘ modern’ double-earner households that use market child care. Family policies may favour one or the other group, like market care subsidies vs. cash-for-care. Policies are determined by probabilistic voting, where distributional impacts matter, both within and across groups. A higher share of modern households—which can be induced by changes in social norms or by changes in gender wage inequality—may have non-monotone effects, with lower net subsidies to traditional households when their share is very low or very high, and higher subsidies in some intermediate stage. This may explain the implementation of cash-for-care policies and their subsequent tightening in late stages of development, when most voters come from modern households, observed in Norway and Sweden. PubDate: 2024-08-01
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Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates ways in which major recessions have impacted individuals’ views about the role of the state in the economy across the world. We build on three complementary sources of data. We analyse experiences during the COVID-19 crisis using a survey of more than 39,000 adults across 14 economies as well as during the global financial crisis using a representative survey covering 34 economies. Exploiting variation across individual experiences during these crises, we find that support for state ownership and redistribution of income is significantly higher among individuals who experienced job losses and, to a lesser extent, among those who experienced an income shock. We show that policy preferences may become self-reinforcing: those who only experienced an income shock are relatively more likely to support benefits for the working poor, while those who experienced job losses favour unemployment benefits. To track the longer-term effects of crisis experiences, we rely on six waves of the World Value Surveys spanning over 100 economies and exploit differences in lifetime exposures to crises by country, year of birth and survey year. Individuals who lived through a major recession during adulthood express a stronger preference for state ownership and redistribution of income. Moreover, we show that the impacts of multiple recessions on attitudes can accumulate. PubDate: 2024-08-01
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Abstract: Abstract The key question addressed in this work is whether financial distress recently experienced by several Italian municipalities can be at least partially imputed to the inadequacy of the financial resources they suffer compared to the needs of their populations and their territories. Starting from a multidimensional definition of financial distress, we investigate this issue by exploiting the variability across municipalities revealed by two different occurrences recently involving the intergovernmental fiscal relations in Italy: on the one hand, the large cuts in vertical transfers carried out by the central government as part of the fiscal consolidation strategy in the period 2014–2015 which affected single municipalities to varying degrees; and, on the other hand, the introduction of a new mechanism of equalization transfers at municipal level which showed how the gap between available financial resources to local needs is differentiated across municipalities. Exploiting these sources of variability across local authorities, the estimation results show that the Italian municipalities which suffer a level of resources lower than that necessary to provide public services at a standard level are, ceteris paribus, more likely to run into financial difficulties. By the same token, large cuts in central government transfers have a statistically significant effect on financial vulnerability at municipal level. PubDate: 2024-07-24
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Abstract: Abstract This paper examines the relationship between marital sorting and income inequality in Switzerland using individual tax data. We find that assortative mating intensifies at the tails of the income distribution. High and low earners specifically tend to marry alike. This pattern is exacerbating household income inequality—the Gini coefficient increases by more than 10% and the top 1% share by around 5% compared to random matching. By comparison, we show that the redistributive impact of marital sorting offsets the effect induced by taxation for most of the top income quintile. However, tax dominates the opposing mating redistribution from the top 5% income share. PubDate: 2024-06-29
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Abstract: Abstract This paper examines the effects of revenue structure and budgetary choice on the fiscal sustainability index of the 36 state governments in Nigeria for the years 2012–2020, using a two-step Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) estimation approach. Preliminary results suggest that out of 36 states, Lagos and Rivers States are Nigeria’s most financially viable states within the sample period. Edo, Kano, Delta, and Ogun states are the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth most economically viable states, with Osun occupying the bottom (36th) position in Nigeria. The paper further finds that the fiscal viability index has a positive spillover effect that runs from the past to the present, suggesting that states with stable fiscal policy are likely to sustain their fiscal policy structure. Similarly, the budgetary choice variable has a positive but statistically insignificant effect on the fiscal sustainability index. Revenue Structure has a negative and statistically significant impact on the fiscal sustainability index. Further research reveals a bidirectional causal relationship between the state government’s budgetary decisions (the Annual Operating Budget, or AOB) and the fiscal sustainability index (FSI). Based on the above results, the paper recommends fiscal policy reform that enables diversification of revenue sources and stringent management of IGR by the state government, with high transparency. PubDate: 2024-06-15 DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09851-y
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Abstract: Abstract About 140 countries have agreed to reallocate the rights to tax international corporate profits and to introduce minimum tax rates. The agreed plan is the product of pragmatism and a search for consensus, but ambitious. It requires far-reaching system changes such as a move towards unitary profit taxation, better known as formula apportionment. The formulary apportionment of profit earned by a multinational enterprise (MNE) assumes international agreement on common rules for the determination of taxable profit. This is a critical departure from the well-established tradition of separate entity accounting (SEA) and may still turn out to be a serious design flaw of the reform. This paper argues for a reform that retains SEA and addresses the flaws in the current system of corporate taxation at their root rather than merely fixing symptoms. To this end, a reform aimed specifically at the rules governing the taxation of intangible assets is recommended. The proposed system can be interpreted as a theory-based generalization of the withholding tax solution of Article 12B of the UN Model Tax Convention to cases where an MNE maintains a physical presence in the source country or intra-group supplies of goods and services entail allocable costs. PubDate: 2024-06-14 DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09848-7
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Abstract: Abstract A key concern in high-inequality countries is whether greater tax revenue and progressivity could help to decrease inequality. Studies have shown that while people care about inequality, providing them with information about current levels of inequality or about specific policies has little impact on their preferences for redistribution. These preferences have usually been proxied by their preferences for government spending without any reference to taxation. In this study in Mexico, we take a novel approach by carrying out a randomized intervention in which we provide information related to (i) corruption, (ii) public health, or (iii) public safety. We then ask individuals about their willingness to pay higher taxes, and we ascertain their support for tax progressivity by asking about their preferred tax rates for the rich, the middle-income, and the poor. We find that willingness to pay higher taxes is affected only by the information on corruption and public health (2.56 and 2.89% points in additional taxes, respectively). We find that this information does not increase their preference for tax progressivity. PubDate: 2024-06-08 DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09852-x
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Abstract: Abstract Unmarried women face a significantly lower average federal income tax rate than unmarried men, 6.3% versus 10.9%. Some of the difference arises because women have lower income on average and the tax system is progressive. Using a non-parametric decomposition analysis, we show that tax progressivity accounts for less than 60% of the gender tax rate difference, leaving the rest being explained by gender differences within income classes. This conclusion remains when the decomposition exercise uses an equivalence-scale-adjusted income and considers gender differences in nontaxable income and time use. Regression results reveal that much of the gender tax difference arises because unmarried women are more likely to live with dependents, making them more likely to claim child-related tax benefits relative to unmarried men. Our findings indicate that the current tax system places a high value of raising children beyond the consideration of the families’ larger consumption needs. Because our analysis does not consider the higher risk of economic insecurity facing single parents and the various externalities generated by women’s higher commitment to childcare, future research should focus on determining whether these additional considerations could justify the extent of the gender tax differential. PubDate: 2024-06-01
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Abstract: Abstract This study examines the relationship between e-commerce development and the intensity of commodity tax competition under two tax principles for goods purchased online: the destination principle and the origin principle. The main findings are as follows: Given that origin-based tax is applied to purchases made in brick-and-mortar stores, (i) tax competition under destination-based taxation on e-commerce is more intense than tax competition under origin-based taxation; and (ii) the expansion of the online market intensifies destination-based tax competition while easing origin-based tax competition. The main factor leading to the results is that replacing the choice of “where to purchase” goods, consumers will have a new choice of “how to purchase” when online purchasing becomes available, and destination-based taxation distorts the latter choice, while origin-based taxation is neutral. PubDate: 2024-06-01
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Abstract: Abstract About half of government expenditure in the United States takes the form of government consumption (e.g., education, defense, infrastructure). In many studies of post-tax inequality based on the Dina framework (including the influential study by Piketty et al. (Q J Econ 133(2):553–609, 2018), government consumption is allocated either proportionally to post-tax disposable income or on a per-capita basis, and the level of inequality is fairly sensitive to this choice. This paper provides direct evidence on how public education spending (a substantial part of government consumption) is actually distributed. An allocation proportional to post-tax disposable income is clearly rejected, while a lump-sum allocation is found to provide a good approximation. PubDate: 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09832-1
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