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Institute for Security Studies Papers
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ISSN (Print) 1026-0404
Published by Sabinet Online Ltd

[25 journals]

Finding a foothold - assessing forecastability in transnational organised
crime
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  Authors: Alex Porter; David Bohl, Jonathan D. Moyer Lily Welborn
  Abstract: States and intergovernmental bodies increasingly recognise the threats transnational organisedcrime (TOC) poses to human wellbeing, state legitimacy and the global economy, but we do nothave a clear understanding of its scale or scope. This paper outlines a conceptual background forunderstanding and quantifying the future in broad terms and in the context of TOC. It provides anoverview of data estimation and modelling, and offers a framework for beginning to think aboutforecasting types of TOC. The paper offers an assessment of ‘forecastability’ in five TOC categories,reviewing research and data estimation in each category.
  PubDate: 2017-12-01T00:00:00Z
Africa’s changing place in the global criminal economy
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  Authors: Mark Shaw
  Abstract: Africa’s growingrole in the world’scriminal economyThe organised crimedebateand Africa Externally suppliedand locallyengaged marketsInternallysupplied – globallynetworked Localaspirations –illicit access A stolenbirthright
  PubDate: 2017-09-01T00:00:00Z
Guns, poison and horns - organised wildlife crime in Southern Africa
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  Authors: Ciara Aucoin; Zachary Donnenfeld
  Abstract: The incident monitoring component of the new ENACT project is an effort to systematically recordinstances of transnational organised crime in Africa to strengthen the evidence base of the scaleand impact of the phenomenon. The pilot phase of the study focused on the topic of wildlife crime,and covered 10 countries in Southern Africa between 2000 and 2016. Information was collected on27 different variables including crime type, location, date, species involved and state responses.
  PubDate: 2017-09-01T00:00:00Z

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