JournalTOCs

Oxford Review of Economic Policy
Journal Prestige (SJR): 0.717

Citation Impact (citeScore): 2
Number of Followers: 27

Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 0266-903X - ISSN (Online) 1460-2121
Published by Oxford University Press

[425 journals]

Climate change, complexity, and policy design
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  Pages: 667 - 679
  Abstract: AbstractThe challenges of combatting climate change are unprecedented and now very urgent. Current approaches are not working fast enough. This paper, and this journal issue, conceive of the challenge as one of non-marginal structural and institutional change. Several different conceptual frameworks and pluralist theories are considered, emanating from complexity theory, economics, natural sciences, political economy, and strategy. These are deployed to identify potential accelerators, including synergies between climate action and other key political issues, and beneficial non-linear dynamics such as shifts in consumer preferences and technology learning curves. The delays in action also mean that removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is now necessary, and even unconventional geoengineering approaches may need to be considered. A pluralist and practical approach to climate action, accounting for different institutional and social contexts across countries, is argued to be required to accelerate action.
  PubDate: Wed, 22 Nov 2023 00:00:00 GMT
  DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad047
  Issue No: Vol. 39, No. 4 (2023)
Five myths about carbon pricing
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  Pages: 680 - 693
  Abstract: AbstractWhile carbon pricing, in general, and carbon taxes, in particular, are popular with economists, they are subject to considerable misunderstanding among policy-makers and the public. In this paper I consider and refute five myths about carnbon taxes: (i) that a carbon price will hurt economic growth; (ii) that carbon pricing will kill jobs; (iii) that a carbon tax and cap-and-trade programme have the same economic impacts; (iv) that we can’t achieve carbon reduction targets with a carbon tax; and (v) that carbon pricing is regressive. I then discuss implications for policy-making.
  PubDate: Wed, 22 Nov 2023 00:00:00 GMT
  DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad042
  Issue No: Vol. 39, No. 4 (2023)
Sensitive intervention points: a strategic approach to climate action
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  Pages: 694 - 710
  Abstract: AbstractWhile some countries are making progress reducing greenhouse gas emissions, few are progressing rapidly enough to be on track to reach net zero emissions by mid-century. The transition to net zero involves deep structural transformation of the global economy and its associated complex socio-technical systems. Here, we set out a conceptual framework to identify ‘sensitive intervention points’ (SIPs) in systems where a small or moderately-sized intervention could drive outsized impacts and transformational change. These points take three forms: (i) critical tipping points, such as a critical price threshold, (ii) critical nodes in networks, such as an influential actor in a social network, and (iii) critical points in time, where windows of opportunity for change open up. We also propose an assessment methodology for prioritizing interventions in terms of their potential impacts, risks, and ease of implementation. We apply our framework and assessment methodology to evaluate a list of proposed interventions for accelerating global decarbonization. Promising interventions include investing in key clean energy technologies with consistent cost declines, introducing central bank policies to reduce the value of polluting collateral, and enhancing climate-related financial risk disclosure.
  PubDate: Wed, 22 Nov 2023 00:00:00 GMT
  DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad043
  Issue No: Vol. 39, No. 4 (2023)
Policy complementarity and the paradox of carbon pricing
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  Pages: 711 - 730
  Abstract: AbstractWe present an economics framework appropriate to the exceptionally broad scope of the climate change problem. This considers that economic and social processes, particularly those involved in purposive transitions of energy technologies and systems, involve the interplay between three distinct domains of decision-making and associated actors. The first concerns small-scale and often short-term decision-making, much of which reflects extensive ‘satisficing’ and habituation as identified in behavioural economics. Calculated economic optimization decisions, especially of companies in the energy and energy-intensive industries, then best reflect the core assumptions of neoclassical and welfare economics, including discrete market failures. Third, at the largest scale are strategic judgements made by big actors (e.g. governments, large multinational companies) relevant to transformation of complex systems over long periods—particularly concerning innovation and structural changes, for which lessons from theories of evolutionary and institutional economics are most relevant.Economically, these can be logically mapped in relation to the technology (or more accurately, ‘best practice’) frontier. Each has corresponding policy implications: most directly, respectively in terms of (i) standards and engagement to establish norms; (ii) competitive markets with the critical role of prices; and (iii) strategic investment in innovation and infrastructure. Each faces challenges of implementation and government failure, as observed, for example, with wholly inadequate carbon pricing to date, naïve and ineffective approaches to enhancing energy efficiency, or misdirected support to R&D. Based on the domain distinctions, we argue that the corresponding pillars of policy are naturally complementary, and can be mutually supportive: strong standards and norms on energy efficiency, for example, would enhance the political space for carbon pricing by reducing its direct consumer impacts, while carbon pricing has multiple positive two-way interactions with enhanced low-carbon innovation.From this we also posit a ‘carbon pricing paradox’: that adequate carbon prices, the central recommendation of most economists, are in most jurisdictions only feasible (or even optimal) if equal analytic and policy attention is devoted to the other pillars, and the wider context of macroeconomic and fiscal policies. Only these other aspects can reduce the absolute cost impact of carbon pricing (potentially turning into a gain) and offer consumers and businesses better lower-carbon alternatives, which are critical to establishing climate-compatible pricing structures across our economies.
  PubDate: Wed, 22 Nov 2023 00:00:00 GMT
  DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad045
  Issue No: Vol. 39, No. 4 (2023)
Greening the G7 economies
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  Pages: 731 - 751
  Abstract: AbstractDespite some progress, the Group of 7 (G7) have yet to act collectively to foster a low-carbon transition of their economies. This paper outlines such a strategy, which would also encourage other economies to follow suit. This strategy has three elements: fossil fuel pricing reforms; recycling revenues to fund green innovation and to offset any adverse income or employment impacts; and developing the proposed G7 Climate Club to promote compliance by other countries. This must be accompanied by comprehensive assistance to emerging market and developing economies to help accelerate their clean energy transition, facilitate their participation in the Climate Club, and attain climate, poverty and development goals.
  PubDate: Wed, 22 Nov 2023 00:00:00 GMT
  DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad039
  Issue No: Vol. 39, No. 4 (2023)
Green bonds and carbon emissions
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  Pages: 752 - 764
  Abstract: AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between green bonds (that is, bonds whose proceeds are committed to financing green projects) and carbon emissions at the aggregate level. Using data for US states, I find that the issuance of $1,000 of green bonds per capita is associated with a subsequent decrease in state-level emissions by 0.9–1.4 per cent. I obtain similar magnitudes using cross-country data. These results are stronger for green bonds that are certified by independent third parties, suggesting that certification is an important governance mechanism in the green bond market.
  PubDate: Wed, 22 Nov 2023 00:00:00 GMT
  DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad040
  Issue No: Vol. 39, No. 4 (2023)
Job creation and deep decarbonization
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  Pages: 765 - 778
  Abstract: AbstractThis paper explores whether economic viability is the key to achieve deep decarbonization or net zero emissions. The hypothesis tested is that popular support for decarbonization policies is conditional upon most people’s belief that their economic well-being will improve, or at least not suffer with these policies. While GDP growth is the typical metric for economic health, a more useful socio-economic indicator for gauging the political viability of climate policies may be job creation. Specifically, the paper reviews the existing evidence about whether climate policies are more successful in achieving deep decarbonization in the long run if policy-makers include job creation as well as emissions reductions when designing and implementing climate policies, because, to date, climate policy-makers have often focused on emissions reductions as the primary criterion for policy choice. While empirical evidence remains thin, we find that job creation in low-carbon industries appears to lead to greater political support for the climate policies that contribute to decarbonization, but employment factors are not always the most salient factor in a voter’s decision. We also find empirical evidence that clean energy deployment policies, such as feed-in tariffs, have led to significant net gains in employment in the countries that have been studied. The review points to several policy implications, including the need to assess competitive advantage, develop plans, design and execute industrial policy, and develop a low-carbon workforce.
  PubDate: Wed, 22 Nov 2023 00:00:00 GMT
  DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad038
  Issue No: Vol. 39, No. 4 (2023)
Net zero electricity: the UK 2035 target
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  Pages: 779 - 795
  Abstract: Abstract The UK is, like its peers in the EU, just under 80% dependent on fossil fuels. This figure has come down just over 10% since the 1970s, a period when the UK had major energy-intensive industries, most of which are now gone. The government is committed to achieving net zero for the electricity sector by 2035 on the pathway to net zero for the whole economy by 2050.. The Labour opposition has set 2030 as its electricity target. Setting out the scale of this challenge, this paper demonstrates how implausible the 2035 target is. On present policies there is little prospect that the 2035 target will be met (and virtually none for the Labour 2030 target). This paper reviews the multiple current policies and the capacity objectives and explores what would have to happen to meet the target. It sets out some of the consequences of failure to deliver, and the expectation of that failure.
  PubDate: Wed, 22 Nov 2023 00:00:00 GMT
  DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad037
  Issue No: Vol. 39, No. 4 (2023)
Double dividend' Transnational initiatives and governance innovation for
climate change and biodiversity
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  Pages: 796 - 809
  Abstract: AbstractGrowing recognition of the need to tackle climate change and biodiversity loss together is leading to shifts in the global environmental governance landscape such that these two traditionally separate domains are increasingly interlinked. This process is taking place not at the level of the international policy regimes but rather through the work of transnational governance initiatives (TGIs) that connect state and non-state actors and which form an increasingly formalized part of the hybrid regime complexes through which global environmental governance is conducted. Central to these dynamics are ‘nature-based solutions’, interventions designed to work with nature to achieve multiple sustainability goals. In this paper, we demonstrate the ways in which TGIs frame and implement nature-based solutions. We show how this is leading to an evolution in market and asset-based responses to addressing these twin challenges and consider the wider consequences for how we understand what effective responses to the interlinked problems of climate and biodiversity entail.
  PubDate: Wed, 22 Nov 2023 00:00:00 GMT
  DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad046
  Issue No: Vol. 39, No. 4 (2023)
How will climate change affect ambient air pollution and what can
policy-makers do now' Lessons from India
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  Pages: 810 - 827
  Abstract: AbstractAir pollution is a growing concern in India, and its adverse health effects are well documented. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this problem by altering weather patterns and increasing the frequency and severity of extreme events. This paper examines the potential impact of climate change on ambient air pollution in India and its implications for policy design. Our analysis reveals that pollution in India is highly sensitive to variation in weather, particularly in the densely populated Indus-Gangetic Plain. Using our estimated relationship between weather and pollution, we predict that changing weather patterns will increase average PM2.5 concentrations by 3.1 µg/m3, leading to a loss of 364 million years of life expectancy. To address this challenge, we propose an emissions fee calibrated to be highest in regions most vulnerable to persistently high levels of pollution and most sensitive to future deterioration in air quality due to climate change.
  PubDate: Wed, 22 Nov 2023 00:00:00 GMT
  DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad041
  Issue No: Vol. 39, No. 4 (2023)
How may solar geoengineering impact global prospects for climate change
mitigation'
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  Pages: 828 - 841
  Abstract: AbstractAs disruptions from climate change increase, so will the urgency to find shorter-term approaches to ameliorating its harms. This may include calls to implement solar geoengineering, an approach to cooling the planet by reflecting incoming sunlight back to space. While the exact effects of solar geoengineering are still highly uncertain, physical science to date suggests that it may be effective at reducing many aspects of climate change in the short term. One of the biggest concerns about solar geoengineering is the extent to which it may interfere with crucial emissions reductions policies, i.e. mitigation. There are multiple channels by which geoengineering could alter mitigation pathways, both financial and behavioural. Here we define three such linkages and present the evidence available to constrain their potential magnitudes. Because solar geoengineering is not a substitute for mitigation, policies to develop or implement technologies that could be used to carry it out should be designed to accentuate its complementary nature to mitigation and deter the possibility it is used to delay decarbonizing the economy.
  PubDate: Wed, 22 Nov 2023 00:00:00 GMT
  DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grad044
  Issue No: Vol. 39, No. 4 (2023)