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BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality
Number of Followers: 0  Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)ISSN (Print) 2366-0112 - ISSN (Online) 2366-0120 Published by Springer-Verlag  [2468 journals]
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- A Simple Conceptual Model of Energy Transition
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Abstract: Abstract A conceptual model of the electricity market is formulated. Demand can be either high or low, with given probabilities. Inflexible production units with high fixed cost supply the base load of low demand, while flexible units with lower fixed cost and rising marginal cost supply the rest. In a reference case, all production units cover exactly their fixed cost from inframarginal rents. Then a transition to renewable energy is analyzed. There is a certain probability that the renewable energy will not be available, but when it is, it supplies the previous base load. A back-up capacity to supply peak demand is assumed to be made available. The effect of availability of renewable energy on electricity price and fixed cost recovery is analyzed.
PubDate: 2023-11-22
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- Storage Implications of Australian Wind Data
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Abstract: Abstract Wind generation data enable periods of low wind input to the Australian energy supply system to be analysed in terms of the amount of supply that would have to be drawn from storage to meet demand over those periods. The findings challenge the common assumption that high-penetration renewable supply would be achievable at a relatively low need for storage and at an easily affordable cost.
PubDate: 2023-10-25
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- Transition to Renewable Energy: An Attempt to Model the Mix of Existing
and Future Generation Technologies for 2035 and 2050-
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Abstract: Abstract Pioneered by most advanced countries a global trend is taking place to eliminate fossil fuels (including green natural gas) and in some extent, nuclear plants, for electric energy generation. Part of these efforts aim at improving known and proven technologies such as wind, solar, hydro and biomass, by increasing their efficiency, as well as decreasing the contamination they produce in a greater or a lesser degree. Examining the abundant existent literature on future needs and projections of sources for energy generation, there are certainly publications that estimate the share of each technology, but they are mostly based on estimates grounded mainly on prices and trends. See for instance, Energy Information Agency (2019). In this proposal it is suggested that said estimate should not be based only on one or two criteria like prices and contamination, but on a set of multiple criteria, related with economics, society, environment, new technologies, sustainability, efficiency, risks, geographic characteristics, climate change, etc. Consequently, alternatives or technologies should be selected based on this set of criteria, and thus, from different points of view. However, relative evaluation must not be done individually, but considering simultaneously all technologies and the different periods, which is a complicated endeavor. This paper suggests a methodology, based on sound mathematics applied to government plans, as well as forecasted demands, and expected new technologies, to define the most convenient and efficient mix of technologies for 2035 and 2050.
PubDate: 2023-10-11
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- The Role of Fiscal Decentralization in Limiting CO2 Emissions in South
Africa-
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Abstract: Abstract Fiscal decentralization determines government behavior considerably by being a major factor influencing South Africa’s carbon emissions. We analyze the impact of fiscal decentralization on carbon emissions on the basis of the dataset of South Africa for the period 1960 to 2020. Using the novel dynamic ARDL simulations model, we reveal that fiscal decentralization has a CO2 emissions reduction impact in both the short and long run, highlighting the presence of the race to the top approach. The findings suggest that, in order to maintain South Africa’s ecological sustainability, further fiscal decentralization should be undertaken through further devolution of power to local entities, particularly in terms of environmental policy issues. In an effort to fulfill the energy-saving functions of fiscal expenditures, South Africa should also establish policies to improve environmental sustainability by strengthening a lower layer of government and clarifying responsibilities at the national and local levels.
PubDate: 2023-08-29
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-023-00112-w
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- Addressing a Counterproductive Dichotomy in the Energy Transition Debate
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Abstract: Abstract There appears to be growing polarization in a large swath of the recent scientific literature on the renewable energy transition, where two opposed “camps” may be identified, i.e. that of the “systemic pessimists”, who champion the broad concepts of carrying capacity and the limits to growth, but often harbour what appears to be pre-conceived scepticism towards renewable energies, and that of the “technological optimists”, who instead typically focus more narrowly on the immediate goal of phasing out fossil fuels, and see great potential for renewable energies to achieve that, but often fail to address other issues of ultimate planetary limits. It is argued here that this is a false dichotomy that is damaging to the reputation of both “camps”, and which risks devaluing and trivializing the most important question of all, namely how to achieve long-term sustainability. This paper calls for the rekindling of a more constructive debate that starts from the recognition that both sets of core arguments (respectively, those centred on the limits to growth and those pointing to the viability of renewable energies) are often simultaneously true, and which moves the goalposts further, to establish to which extent a more sustainable future is indeed possible, and which systemic changes (including, but not limited to, phasing out fossil fuels) will be required to achieve it.
PubDate: 2023-08-24
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-023-00113-9
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- Colin Campbell, Oil Exploration Geologist and Key Proponent of ‘Peak
Oil’-
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PubDate: 2023-04-19
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-023-00111-x
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- Estimating the Disaggregated Standard EROI of Canadian Oil Sands Extracted
via Open-pit Mining, 1997–2016-
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Abstract: Abstract The Canadian province of Alberta is the main crude oil producer in Canada. Its conventional crude production has declined over the last decades, while production from unconventional sources, i.e. the oil sands, has risen significantly. Two types of crude are produced out of raw oil sands: crude bitumen and synthetic crude. Crude bitumen refers to raw bitumen cleansed from solid particles after extraction on-site which must be diluted with light hydrocarbons (natural gas, condensate, etc.) for shipment via pipelines. ‘Diluted bitumen’ refers to crude bitumen after blending with light hydrocarbons. Synthetic crude is produced via upgrading (distillation and/or cracking) of crude bitumen, resulting in a crude oil stream nearly identical chemically to conventional crude. Past researchers who estimated the net energy delivered by oil sands-derived crude using the energy return on energy invested (EROI) as an indicator have either estimated the EROI of one type of crude only or analysed the total EROI of oil sands extracted via both open-pit or in-situ mining. No research has estimated the disaggregated EROI of the two types of crude independently, making a rigorous comparison of the net-energy potentials of the two crude streams difficult. This paper provides disaggregated estimates of the EROI of diluted bitumen and synthetic crude produced via open-pit mining. I find the Standard EROI (EROIST) of diluted bitumen to be 11.6: 1 on weighted average from 1997 to 2016 and increasing over time. I find synthetic crude’s EROIST to be 4.1: 1 on weighted average over the period.
PubDate: 2023-02-11
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-023-00109-5
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- The Role of Financial Development in Climate Change Mitigation: Fresh
Policy Insights from South Africa-
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Abstract: Abstract The present research on the relationship between financial development and CO2 emissions has shown conflicting, inconsistent results. This study resolves this problem by examining the direct and indirect effects of financial development on CO2 emissions using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) analytical framework. Our scientific work for South Africa between 1960 and 2020 is built on the cutting-edge dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations technique. The findings, which were based on five different financial development metrics, show that financial development both temporarily and permanently lowers CO2 emissions. We further support the EKC theory’s applicability in the case of South Africa. More significantly, the results of the indirect channels show that financial development reduces the deleterious effects of economic growth, trade openness, and foreign direct investment on CO2 emissions while strengthening the role that energy utilization plays in promoting carbon emissions. Additionally, the pollution haven hypothesis (PHH), which is explored by employing trade openness and foreign direct investment variables, is predicated on the existence of an inefficient financial framework. When financial development reaches certain levels, PHH for both of these factors vanishes. Finally, technological innovation reduces CO2 emissions even when industrial value addition fuels them. In light of our empirical findings, this research offers some critical policy suggestions and novel viewpoints for South Africa as it implements national interventions to cut CO2 emissions and achieve its net-zero emission goals.
PubDate: 2023-02-08
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-023-00110-y
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- Resource Curse Hypothesis in GCC Member Countries: Evidence from Seemingly
Unrelated Regression-
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Abstract: Abstract The economies of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member countries rely heavily on oil and gas for their total fiscal and export revenues. But, the level of their dependency varies considerably across member countries which pose a structural policy challenges to GCC policy makers. This study examined the effect of oil and natural gas rents on economic growth in GCC member countries during the period 1984–2021. The study applied recent bootstrap panel cointegration test and seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method and found that oil rent has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Kuwait and United Arab Emirate, disputing the resource curse hypothesis. Similarly, natural gas rent impacted positively on the economic growth in Bahrain and Qatar. However, oil rent exerts a negative and significant impact on economic growth in Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. The policy implication suggest that rents from both oil and natural gas should be used to diversify their economies by investing in areas of comparative advantage of the region’s abundant hydrocarbons such as petrochemicals and other related refined hydrocarbons industries which will, in turn, stimulates economic growth.
PubDate: 2022-11-01
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-022-00108-y
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- The Energy Return on Investment of Whole-Energy Systems: Application to
Belgium-
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Abstract: Abstract Planning the defossilization of energy systems while maintaining access to abundant primary energy resources is a non-trivial multi-objective problem encompassing economic, technical, environmental, and social aspects. However, most long-term policies consider the cost of the system as the leading indicator in the energy system models to decrease the carbon footprint. This paper is the first to develop a novel approach by adding a surrogate indicator for the social and economic aspects, the energy return on investment (EROI), in a whole-energy system optimization model. In addition, we conducted a global sensitivity analysis to identify the main parameters driving the EROI uncertainty. This method is illustrated in the 2035 Belgian energy system for several greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets. Nevertheless, it can be applied to any worldwide or country energy system. The main results are threefold when the GHG emissions are reduced by 80%: (i) the EROI decreases from 8.9 to 3.9; (ii) the imported renewable gas (methane) represents 60 % of the system primary energy mix; (iii) the sensitivity analysis reveals this fuel drives 67% of the variation of the EROI. These results raise questions about meeting the climate targets without adverse socio-economic impact, demonstrating the importance of considering the EROI in energy system models.
PubDate: 2022-10-19
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-022-00106-0
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- Global Energy Price Volatility and Agricultural Commodity Prices in
Malaysia-
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Abstract: Abstract Few studies have differentiated oil demand shocks from oil supply shocks in the literature that has investigated the impacts of these issues on the prices of agricultural products. This study attempts to investigate this problem by employing a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) technique on Malaysian data from January 1993 to December 2019. We found that the reactions of agricultural commodity prices to the changes in global oil prices largely depend on whether they result from oil demand shocks or oil supply shocks. Global oil demand shocks before the food price crisis (2006–2008) can explain a large share of the changes in prices of agricultural products, while after that period, their capacity to explain these changes becomes much weaker. After the food crisis period, the contribution of the oil supply shock to changes in the prices of agricultural products is higher than that of the oil demand shock. We can conclude that the role of oil supply in the economy in explaining changes in the prices of agricultural commodities is stronger after the food price crisis. This is because Malaysia’s economy, as a net oil exporter, benefits from higher oil prices resulting in higher demand for agricultural products and, consequently, higher prices for agricultural commodities.
PubDate: 2022-10-15
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-022-00105-1
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- Can Australia Run on Renewable Energy: Unsettled Issues and Implications
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Abstract: Abstract Although the possibility of renewable energy supply meeting 100% of demand is widely assumed the issue remains unsettled. This paper discusses some of the central questions that need clarification or possible resolution before we can decide whether the goal is achievable. These include the need for simulations, storage options, the EROI values for whole renewable supply systems, and the probable dollar costs of whole systems capable of meeting all energy demand whilst providing for intermittency. Examination of several Australian simulations indicates that significant difficulties and uncertainties remain to be resolved, and the discussion of these supports the case that 100% supply systems will be at the least very costly and might be unaffordable.
PubDate: 2022-10-10
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-022-00107-z
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- Retrospective Impact Assessment for Pilot Hydroponic Green Fodder
Production in Sekota Woreda, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia-
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Abstract: Abstract The objective of the study was to assess the impact of hydroponic green feed production on the milk production and household income of small-scale farmers in Sekota Woreda (District) of Waghimra zone in Ethiopia. Hydroponic feed production is not a common way of animal feed production. However, an NGO called Action For Hunger (ACF) designed a project and introduced it in two Peasant Associations (PAs) or Kebeles in Sekota Woreda. The technique employs non-soil fodder production with the application of specialized nutrient solutions which replace nutrients that plants can get from the soil. Sekota Woreda under Waghimra zone is found in Amhara region, Ethiopia, characterized by recurrent drought, degraded topography, and minimal amount of vegetation coverage. It is paramount in providing alternative production techniques to small holders in the area and the project introduced non-soil-based animal feed production technique. The project selected totally 50 households for piloting the project. All participating farmers have been included on the impact assessment study. Both descriptive and inferential statistics techniques were employed to characterize beneficiaries and analyze the impact brought about to their livelihood by the project. Descriptive statistics techniques implemented such as mean, frequency, standard deviation, and cross tabulation techniques. Two-sample t test with equal variance assumption is used to analyze the impact in retrospective way of analysis. The results include about 60% of beneficiaries are Female and the rest are Male and most of them are either Widowed or Divorced. Participation criteria for the program were restocking beneficiary, female-headed household, affected by recurrent drought and elderly farmer. When it comes to the impact of the hydroponic feed production activity, it has brought statistically significant improvement in both cattle and goat milk production and the income from the sale of the milk produced by the intervention. Hence, it is recommended that either the project itself or other development practitioners should take the lesson from this activity and think about scaling up the project to other farmers within the District or other Districts within the area.
PubDate: 2022-08-25
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-022-00103-3
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- Satellite-Based GIS Evaluation of Land to Scale Agroforestry Restoration
Planning in Afghanistan-
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Abstract: Abstract Agroforestry has gained attention because of its diverse roles ranging from direct economic to sustainable environment. The present study is an attempt to understand the land potentiality of Afghanistan to scale agroforestry restoration planning in the country. The potential agroforestry suitable areas were achieved through the Geographical Information System modeling approach. The study found that 13.2% of the geographical area of the country was under agriculture. Approximately, one-fourth of the total geographical area of the country is useful in various diversified agroforestry formats because of the sound agroforestry suitability percent. The total agriculture landscape (1% to 50%) grid was identified as equivalent to 32 million hectares (49% of total geographical area). About 53% of these lands were found medium to very high suitable for agroforestry purposes and the remaining 47% of the agriculture landscape showed low agroforestry suitable percent. The full-scale implementation of an agroforestry restoration blueprint needs adequate funds and appropriate planning at the country level that will serve many of the SDG goals for socioeconomic-stressed Afghan people which will provide them food and nutrient security, livelihood, and eliminate poverty, enhance biodiversity, and mitigate the impact of climate change.
PubDate: 2022-08-19
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-022-00104-2
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- The Role of Disaggregated Level Natural Resources Rents in Economic Growth
and Environmental Degradation of BRICS Economies-
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Abstract: This study investigates the pollution halo and natural resources blessing phenomenon in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) economies at the disaggregated level over 1995–2018. The study applies panel techniques useful in endogeneity, autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, and crossectional dependence. Our study's results partially supported the natural resources curse phenomena and resource blessing for BRICS countries. The empirical results further substantiated that total natural resource rents help decrease CO2 emissions, while the mineral, forest, and oil rents substantially increase CO2 emissions of the BRICS economies. The causality results further indicated that fossil fuels, economic growth, and CO2 emissions have feedback effects. Similarly, mineral resources have bidirectional causal impacts on CO2 emissions and fossil fuel consumption. The unilateral causal linkages are also found to forest resources from all the chosen variables. Finally, a significant causal relationship originates from GDP, fossil fuel to natural resource rents, and the BRICS economies' oil rents. Since the study outcomes are unique, it has reliable policies for the theory and practice of the BRICS economies. Graphical
PubDate: 2022-08-08
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-022-00102-4
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- Biomass Carbon and Tree Cover Dynamics Assessment (2000–2010) on
Agriculture Landscape in India: Geospatial Interpretation-
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Abstract: Abstract This paper assesses the remote sensing datasets of biomass carbon on the agricultural landscape and their decadal change dynamics due to variation in tree cover dominance using geospatial technology in India. Remote sensing data showed that in the year 2000, 16.9% of all agricultural land (28.02 million hectares) in India had agroforestry land (at least 10% tree cover) which was further increased to 22.5% (37.30 million hectares) over 10 years (up to the year 2010). The total biomass carbon estimate in the year 2000 was found 1868.75 million tons of carbon (≈1.87 Pg C) over the Indian agriculture landscape (≈166 million hectares). Out of which approximately 1039 million tons (≈1.04 Pg C) of biomass carbon come from trees (with 55.7% contribution). Total biomass carbon loss between the periods of 2000 and 2010 was observed 31.19 million tons, whereas gain was 170.02 million tons. The decadal biomass carbon net gain was 138.83 million tons due to an increase in agroforestry land by 5.6% (9.27 million hectares). The mean biomass carbon in India increased from 11.29 to 12.13 t C ha−1 in 10 years, whereas the global mean increment is 20.4 to 21.4 t C ha−1 during the same base periods (Zomer et al in Sci Rep 6:29987, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep29987, 2016). Our analysis critically addressed one of the past research gaps of the biomass carbon-related findings in the agriculture landscape due to tree cover variation. Such understanding will assist significantly agroforestry decision-makers of India in enhancing future harmonized blueprint for agroforestry.
PubDate: 2022-07-30
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-022-00100-6
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- Sustainability, Self-sufficiency, and Biodiversity: Case Study of the
Majuli Island in Assam, India-
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Abstract: Abstract Traditional rural societies which are largely pre industrial, displays self sufficiency and symbiosis between its culture, heritage and economy. This symbiotic relationship fostered a healthy biodiversity. The growth of consumerism and focus on economic growth often threatens the traditional self-sufficiency of rural communities. Majuli, one of the largest inhabited river islands and home to numerous self-sufficient indigenous communities, is a good example of man nature symbiosis. Present day emphasis on economic determinism and a consumerist culture threatens its biodiversity and self-sufficiency. Reckless natural resources exploitation, increased chemical use in agriculture and labour out migration threaten the sustainability and bio-diversity of the island.
PubDate: 2022-05-13
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-022-00098-x
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- Is There a Kuznets Curve for CO2-Emissions'
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Abstract: Abstract The history of the environmental Kuznets curve is traced. We estimate how the CO2-intensity of economies is related to GDP per capita and examine the implications for the Kuznets curve. We find mixed evidence for the existence of this curve. In many poor and medium rich countries the CO2-intensity has increased since 1990, while in rich countries it has fallen. In some of those it has fallen at an increasing rate, but in others at a declining rate. If the CO2-intensity converges to a lower limit as countries grow richer the Kuznets curve would not exist.
PubDate: 2022-05-12
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-022-00099-w
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- How Much Energy Storage can We Afford' On the Need for a Sunflower
Society, Aligning Demand with Renewable Supply-
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Abstract: Abstract The worsening climate crisis impels society to accelerate climate action. The attainable speed of the energy transition is ultimately limited by the available energy to build the replacing renewable infrastructures. Decarbonizing the energy system by replacing dispatchable fossil with variable renewable power requires energy storage to match supply with demand. Current storage technologies are energetically expensive to build and operate, thus the demand for storage shapes the fastest possible transition and the probability to exceed 1.5 °C heating. This study explores and quantifies the effect of demanded storage and its technological progress on the fastest possible transition constrained only by energy. The simulation results using three exemplary storage technologies show that storage substantially delays the transition and increases the probability to exceed 1.5 °C heating. Technological progress, if materialized fast, can reduce energy costs of storage; however, storage demand remains a critical driver for climate risks. Consequently, minimizing storage demand through a supply-driven power system effectively reduces climate risks—a paradigm shift towards a solar-aligned “sunflower society”.
PubDate: 2022-04-28
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-022-00097-y
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- The Contributions of Muscle and Machine Work to Land and Labor
Productivity in World Agriculture Since 1800-
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Abstract: Abstract Since 1800, there have been enormous changes in mechanical technologies farmers use and in the relative contributions of human and animal muscles and machines to farm work. We develop a database from 1800 to 2012 of on-farm physical work in world agriculture from muscles and machines. We do so to analyze how on-farm physical work has contributed to changes in land and human labor productivities. We find two distinct periods. First, from 1800 to around 1950, land productivity (measured as kcal food supply per hectare of cropland) was relatively stagnant at about 1.7 million kcal/ha, in part due to a scarcity of on-farm physical work. During this period, physical work was scarce because most of on-farm physical work (approximately 80% in 1950) was being powered by low power, low energy efficiency muscle work provided by humans and draft animals. From 1950 to 2012, land productivity nearly tripled as more machine-based work inputs became available. The additional machine-based work inputs have contributed to the growth in land and labor productivities, as they have enabled farmers to control more physical work enabling more irrigation and agrochemical applications. However, the tripling of land productivity has required a near 4.5-fold increase in physical work per hectare, suggesting diminishing returns. Farmers accomplished this extra work with less final energy because they transitioned from low-efficiency muscle work to high-efficiency machines which drove farm-wide energy conversion efficiency up fourfold from 1950 to 2012. By 1990, machine conversion efficiencies started to plateau. Given diminishing returns and plateauing efficiencies, we predict that fuel and electricity usage on farms will increase to continue raising land productivity.
PubDate: 2022-03-28
DOI: 10.1007/s41247-022-00096-z
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