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Abstract: Abstract Traditional rural societies which are largely pre industrial, displays self sufficiency and symbiosis between its culture, heritage and economy. This symbiotic relationship fostered a healthy biodiversity. The growth of consumerism and focus on economic growth often threatens the traditional self-sufficiency of rural communities. Majuli, one of the largest inhabited river islands and home to numerous self-sufficient indigenous communities, is a good example of man nature symbiosis. Present day emphasis on economic determinism and a consumerist culture threatens its biodiversity and self-sufficiency. Reckless natural resources exploitation, increased chemical use in agriculture and labour out migration threaten the sustainability and bio-diversity of the island. PubDate: 2022-05-13
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Abstract: Abstract The history of the environmental Kuznets curve is traced. We estimate how the CO2-intensity of economies is related to GDP per capita and examine the implications for the Kuznets curve. We find mixed evidence for the existence of this curve. In many poor and medium rich countries the CO2-intensity has increased since 1990, while in rich countries it has fallen. In some of those it has fallen at an increasing rate, but in others at a declining rate. If the CO2-intensity converges to a lower limit as countries grow richer the Kuznets curve would not exist. PubDate: 2022-05-12
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Abstract: Abstract The worsening climate crisis impels society to accelerate climate action. The attainable speed of the energy transition is ultimately limited by the available energy to build the replacing renewable infrastructures. Decarbonizing the energy system by replacing dispatchable fossil with variable renewable power requires energy storage to match supply with demand. Current storage technologies are energetically expensive to build and operate, thus the demand for storage shapes the fastest possible transition and the probability to exceed 1.5 °C heating. This study explores and quantifies the effect of demanded storage and its technological progress on the fastest possible transition constrained only by energy. The simulation results using three exemplary storage technologies show that storage substantially delays the transition and increases the probability to exceed 1.5 °C heating. Technological progress, if materialized fast, can reduce energy costs of storage; however, storage demand remains a critical driver for climate risks. Consequently, minimizing storage demand through a supply-driven power system effectively reduces climate risks—a paradigm shift towards a solar-aligned “sunflower society”. PubDate: 2022-04-28
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Abstract: Abstract Since 1800, there have been enormous changes in mechanical technologies farmers use and in the relative contributions of human and animal muscles and machines to farm work. We develop a database from 1800 to 2012 of on-farm physical work in world agriculture from muscles and machines. We do so to analyze how on-farm physical work has contributed to changes in land and human labor productivities. We find two distinct periods. First, from 1800 to around 1950, land productivity (measured as kcal food supply per hectare of cropland) was relatively stagnant at about 1.7 million kcal/ha, in part due to a scarcity of on-farm physical work. During this period, physical work was scarce because most of on-farm physical work (approximately 80% in 1950) was being powered by low power, low energy efficiency muscle work provided by humans and draft animals. From 1950 to 2012, land productivity nearly tripled as more machine-based work inputs became available. The additional machine-based work inputs have contributed to the growth in land and labor productivities, as they have enabled farmers to control more physical work enabling more irrigation and agrochemical applications. However, the tripling of land productivity has required a near 4.5-fold increase in physical work per hectare, suggesting diminishing returns. Farmers accomplished this extra work with less final energy because they transitioned from low-efficiency muscle work to high-efficiency machines which drove farm-wide energy conversion efficiency up fourfold from 1950 to 2012. By 1990, machine conversion efficiencies started to plateau. Given diminishing returns and plateauing efficiencies, we predict that fuel and electricity usage on farms will increase to continue raising land productivity. PubDate: 2022-03-28
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Abstract: Abstract This paper explains how the Human and Resources with MONEY (HARMONEY) economic growth model exhibits realistic dynamic interdependencies relating resources consumption, growth, and structural change. We explore dynamics of three major structural metrics of an economy. First, we show that an economic transition to relative decoupling of gross domestic product (GDP) from resource consumption is an expected pattern that occurs because of physical limits to growth, not a response to avoid physical limits. While increasing operational resource efficiency does increase the level of relative decoupling, so does a change in pricing from one based on full costs to one based only on marginal costs that neglect depreciation and interest payments. Marginal cost pricing leads to higher debt ratios and a perception of higher levels of relative resource decoupling. Second, if assuming full labor bargaining power for wages, when a previously-growing economy reaches peak resource extraction and GDP, wages remain high but profits and debt decline to zero. By removing bargaining power, profits can remain positive at the expense of declining wages. Third, the internal structure of HARMONEY evolves in the same way the post-World War II U.S. economy. This is measured as the distribution of intermediate transactions within the input-output tables of both the model and U.S. economy. PubDate: 2021-12-04 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-021-00093-8
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Abstract: Abstract Energy Return on Investment (EROI, sometimes EROEI) is one of the most important indices for evaluating the efficacy of a primary energy source. It is generally defined as the relation between the energy extracted from a given resource and the energy costs diverted from society to extract it. In this paper, the EROI of 30 oil companies was calculated using the CO2 emitted by the companies and declared in Sustainability and/or Annual Reports as required by law, to estimate the energy used for the production process over a time span of 20 years (1999–2018). The resulting EROI estimates for the companies analyzed are rather homogeneous and, except in some cases, these values are relatively constant over time. These values agree (although sometimes somewhat lower than) estimates derived by other methods. PubDate: 2021-11-27 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-021-00095-6
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Abstract: Abstract In this study, we use the term “energy expenditure” to calculate the direct and indirect energy costs invested in the extraction and conversion of net energy at the end of use in China. In this study, less energy expenditure is assumed to lead to more net energy to fulfill human psychological needs and to develop the economic system. However, in reality, energy expenditure is inevitable, and the question of what maximum energy expenditure is tolerable for economic growth remains. Therefore, we calculated the energy expenditure for China based on embodied energy theory and the IO table from 1987 to 2015 and then used a multivariate linear regression model to test the maximum tolerable level of energy expenditure in China. The results show that China’s economic system needs 3217 mtce net energy to ensure that the average annual GDP growth remains higher than 5% into the 2030s, which means that energy expenditure cannot be higher than 45.44% in 2030. According to the EROI forecast, EROI will drop to 1.52:1 in 2030, and the energy expenditure level will reach up to 64%. This figure is far above the maximum tolerable level of energy expenditure of 45.44%. If the level of energy expenditure exceeds this limit, the energy industry will hardly supply enough net energy to support economic development in 2030. PubDate: 2021-11-27 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-021-00094-7
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Abstract: Abstract Net energy is the surplus energy after subtracting energy production input, which is regarded as the energy that really promotes social development. At present, a large amount of net energy analysis is concentrated in the preliminary production stage, and there are few deeper studies on energy system. This study mainly uses input–output analysis to estimate energy input (including import input, energy loss and embodied energy), and calculates EROI and Net Energy Supply of energy system in China from 1990 to 2018. The results show that EROI has shown a downward trend in the past. Among all energy sectors, Production and Supply of Electric Power and Heat Power accounts for the highest proportion of energy input, and the proportion of energy loss is gradually increasing. In addition, this study uses the simulated function to establish the relationship between net energy and GDP and makes an outlook of net energy supply and EROI in different scenarios. EROI is likely to decline in the near future, and more attention should be paid to the efficient use of net energy to achieve economic goals. PubDate: 2021-11-25 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-021-00091-w
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Abstract: Abstract Faced with an increasing demand for food and unstable fuel markets, research into more environmentally sustainable sources was expedited. One of the significant overhead costs for favorable climate management in greenhouse cultivation is energy. Using a wind–solar clean energy grid to monitor greenhouse ecosystems decreases fuel usage while improving greenhouse output sustainability. Different agricultural techniques can benefit from the usage of potential renewable energy sources, which can be used to help alleviate the energy shortage that exists in both rural and urban regions while also slowing the rate of dreadful environmental conditions. In addition, suitable agricultural extension services are required to instruct, enlighten, and disseminate this knowledge to rural areas in order to facilitate alternative energy production, management, monitoring, and assessment. The purpose of this study is to examine the use of renewable energy in an agricultural operation. PubDate: 2021-11-14 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-021-00092-9
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Abstract: Abstract Since energy supports the economic production activities and has been considered the engine of economic growth, it is of central importance to investigate their mutual relationships. We examine the causality between primary energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan for the period of 1972 to 2015. We adopt a multivariate causality framework by adding primary energy consumption to labor and capital as input factors in the production model. The results of the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test confirm the existence of bidirectional causality between primary energy consumption and GDP, thereby validating the existence of the feedback hypothesis in Pakistan. The findings of the study call for the government to adopt policies for energy efficiency and expansion rather than energy conservation. Moreover, the renewable energy consumption share should be upscaled in the current energy mix to strengthen the economic activities by keeping the environmental sustainability objective as a top priority of the country. PubDate: 2021-09-04 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-021-00090-x
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Abstract: Abstract Increasing resource use efficiency to meet the world demand for food is among the greatest challenges for the sustainability of agricultural systems. Appropriate biophysical characteristics, resource renewability, and production costs are decisive for the biophysical and economic persistence of agricultural systems. In Brazil, rice is grown in flooding-irrigated (predominantly in the South) and rainfed (other regions) systems. The present study measured the energy efficiency, monetary costs, and the sustainability of characteristic examples of these two types of agroecosystems. We calculated indices of energy flow analysis, discriminating between energy fractions derived from renewable and non-renewable inputs. The irrigated system had more than double the yield, but an energy return on investment (EROI, 2.03:1) and energy productivity (EP, 0.13 kg MJ−1) that were lower than those of the rainfed system (2.86:1 and 0.19 kg MJ−1, respectively). However, the renewable EROI (EROIr) showed that the irrigated system is more sustainable: 364:1 vs 5:1 by our measure. We propose using the energy efficiency cost (EEC) and energy exchange ratio (EnER), and their renewable (R EnER) and non-renewable (NR EnER) fractions to assess the monetary costs of energy efficiency. By these criteria, irrigated systems are less efficient economically, expending more energy to produce a monetary unit of paddy rice (33.87 MJ US$−1) than the rainfed system (24.03 MJ US$−1). The pricing system can underestimate renewable resources such as water for irrigation since the irrigated system’s NR EnER (21.09) was higher than the R EnER (12.78). Thus, the pricing system underestimates the biophysical sustainability of the agricultural systems. PubDate: 2021-08-21 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-021-00089-4
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Abstract: Abstract Previous research has identified that climate change mitigation policies could increase demand for resources perceived as critical, because these are used in many renewable energy technologies. This study assesses how reducing the extraction and use of fossil fuels could affect the supply of (i) elements jointly produced with fossil fuels and (ii) elements jointly produced with a host that is currently mainly used in fossil fuel supply chains. Several critical resources are identified for which supply potential from current sources is likely to decline. Some of these, e.g. germanium and vanadium, have uses in low-carbon energy systems. Renewable energy transitions can thus simultaneously increase demand and reduce supply of critical elements. The problem is greatest for technology groups in which by-products are more difficult to recycle than the host. Photovoltaic cell technology stands out as one such group. Phasing out fossil fuels has the potential to reduce both the supply potential (i.e. primary flow) and recoverable resources (i.e. stock) of materials involved in such technology groups. Further studies could examine possibilities to increase recovery rates, extract jointly produced resources independently of hosts and how the geographical distribution of by-product supply sources might change if fossil fuel extraction is scaled back. PubDate: 2021-05-24 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-021-00088-5
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Abstract: Abstract The considerable literature on Degrowth has focussed mainly on the case for it and on elements of a desirable new economy. Little attention has been given to the magnitude of the required Degrowth, and the common implicit assumption is that it would not be very great, enabling a desirable economy to be achieved by reforms within the existing economy. The following discussion argues that this is mistaken and that the reductions must be so large that they cannot be implemented within the existing structures and must involve extremely radical system change. Implications for the form that a sustainable and just society must take and for the way it might be achieved it are explored. PubDate: 2021-05-17 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-021-00087-6
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Abstract: Abstract Production of commodities and industrial products typically declines in relative terms as countries get richer. Does this mean that economic growth will become dematerialized and take place without being accompanied by a rise in the use of materials' Do we see signs of this already happening' We look at the production of cement and thirteen minerals 1960–2019 and find no evidence of dematerialization. Production of cement and eight minerals has grown more rapidly than world GDP and that of three minerals more rapidly than world population. Extraction of most minerals has accelerated rather than stagnated since the turn of the century. PubDate: 2021-05-11 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-021-00086-7
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Abstract: Abstract Natural resources wealth constitutes a fundamental pillar of economic development in BRICS countries which seek to swiftly catch-up the advanced economies. However, this catching-up process is coupled with an increase in capital flight. This paper aims at investigating the determinants of capital flight in BRICS countries over the period 2001–2017, while putting a greater emphasis on the role of natural resources. The econometric analysis reveals that natural resources exert a positive effect on capital flight, suggesting that natural resource rents fuel capital flight in BRICS countries. Empirical results show also that capital flight is determined by macroeconomic and institutional factors as well. However, the disaggregated analysis by natural resource components show some disparities that cannot be overlooked. Despite the large benefits of natural resources wealth, curbing the capital flight waves remains a key challenge that faces the BRICS grouping in order to ensure that profits are maximized for the good of countries. PubDate: 2021-03-11 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-021-00085-8
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Abstract: Abstract Access to abundant and affordable primary energy resources has been recognised as an essential factor for the prosperity of human societies. To measure their quality, understood as the ease with which the energy system can extract and transform them into a form useful to society, the concept of energy return on investment (EROI) is widely used. Yet, so far, very few estimates of this indicator exist at a society level. This paper first aims at providing an estimate of the societal EROI using a simple macroeconomic model with two sectors, an energy sector and a final sector aggregating the rest of the economy. For the year 2018 and at a worldwide level, we obtain a gross EROI of 9.4, and a net EROI of 8.5. The estimation of the net energy ratio (NER), a second indicator more comprehensive than the EROI, allows assessing the energy embodied in the intermediate and capital consumptions of the entire economy. The NER calculation reveals that only 39% of the final energy produced contributes to total consumption (private and public) and economic growth, the remaining 61% being consumed within the economy. These intermediate energy consumptions (direct and indirect) are unevenly distributed between the two sectors: 11% of the production goes to the energy sector, while no less than 50% is consumed within the final sector. These figures proved to be very insensitive to variations in the value of estimated model parameters. PubDate: 2021-02-05 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-021-00084-9
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Abstract: Abstract This paper explores the construction and validation of an artificial neural network (ANN) model to accurately and efficiently predict the performance of a downdraft biomass gasification integrated with syngas fermentation plant for ethanol production. The study aims to predict the specific mass flow rate of bioethanol product from the systems derived by various kinds of biomass feedstocks under atmospheric pressure and various operating conditions. The input parameters used in the models are elemental analysis compositions (C, O, H, N and S), proximate analysis compositions (moisture, ash, volatile material and fixed carbon) and operating parameters (gasifier temperature and air to fuel ratio). The architecture of the model consisted of one input, one hidden and one output layer. 1008 simulated data from 84 different types of biomasses in various operating conditions were used to train the ANN. The developed ANN shows agreement with simulated data with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) less than 0.05 in the case of product bioethanol. Moreover, the relative influence of biomass characteristics and some specific operating parameters on output are determined. Finally, to have a more detailed assessment, the variations of all input variables with respect to carbon content are compared and analyzed together. The suggested integrated ANN based model can be applied as a very useful tool for optimization and control of the process through the downdraft biomass gasification integrated with bioethanol production unit. PubDate: 2021-01-11 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-020-00083-2
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Abstract: Abstract In this paper benefit of use of biogas is quantified with structural equation modelling. A survey of 400 households of biogas consumers produced primary data. This primary data is used here. Questionnaire developed for this survey was structured and generated mostly ordinal data. This questionnaire was also pretested and refined. Among several variables studied, distance covered for firewood before and after, source of firewood before and after, income status, educational background, frequency of visit to the hospital and family size were used. Response of consumers on direct benefits like reduced pollution, reduced fuel expenses, reduced physical hazard and reduced physical labour were also considered. Among several structural models explored, two most suitable Time Saved models are discussed here in detail; out of which one model is finalised. This is done using model specification, identification, estimation, testing, identification and validation procedures. Benefit of biogas to the two genders is quantified with odds ratio. It is seen quantitatively that the benefit of biogas to a woman far outweighs its benefit to a man. The direct benefit of biogas to a household in cooking and lighting is obvious, but various hidden benefits and interrelationships cannot be measured. Strong backbone of good quality official records are also missing for data validation. This paper measures and analyses these indirect and latent relationships. It also gives a holistic understanding of the interrelationships. PubDate: 2020-11-05 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-020-00082-3
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Abstract: Abstract In this work, we make the ansatz that economic production is reduced to the energy made available to the economy. In (Illig and Schindler, BioPhys Econ Resour Qual 2(1):1, 2017) the price of oil was expressed as a function of the size of the economy, the cost share of oil, and the quantity of oil extracted. We clarify assumptions needed to use this explicit price equation to study prices. Using the current extraction rate, the previous year’s extraction rate, and interest rates of the Federal Reserve we use linear regression to give a model for oil prices from 1966 to 2018. The model verifies that deductions made from the explicit price equation are consistent with empirical data over the given time period. Our analysis indicates that the contraction phase of world oil extraction began in 2020 and that it will be characterized by relatively low oil prices. We present some challenges and opportunities for building a future economy if our assumptions prove valid. PubDate: 2020-10-09 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-020-00081-4
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Abstract: Abstract From typhoons to wildfires, as the visible impacts of climate change mount, calls for mitigation through carbon drawdown are escalating. Environmentalists and many climatologists are urging steps to enhance biological methods of carbon drawdown and sequestration. Market actors seeing avenues for profit have launched ventures in mechanical–chemical carbon dioxide removal (CDR), seeking government support for their methods. Governments are responding. Given the strong, if often unremarked, momentum of demands for public subsidy of these commercial methods, on what cogent bases can elected leaders make decisions that, first and foremost, meet societal needs' To address this question, we reviewed the scientific and technical literature on CDR, focusing on two methods that have gained most legislative traction: point-source capture and direct air capture–which together we term “industrial carbon removal” (ICR), in contrast to biological methods. We anchored our review in a standard of “collective biophysical need,” which we define as a reduction of the level of atmospheric CO2. For each ICR method, we sought to determine (1) whether it sequesters more CO2 than it emits; (2) its resource usage at scale; and (3) its biophysical impacts. We found that the commercial ICR (C-ICR) methods being incentivized by governments are net CO2 additive: CO2 emissions exceed removals. Further, the literature inadequately addresses the resource usage and biophysical impacts of these methods at climate-significant scale. We concluded that dedicated storage, not sale, of captured CO2 is the only assured way to achieve a reduction of atmospheric CO2. Governments should therefore approach atmospheric carbon reduction as a public service, like water treatment or waste disposal. We offer policy recommendations along this line and call for an analysis tool that aids legislators in applying biophysical considerations to policy choices. PubDate: 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.1007/s41247-020-00080-5
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