Authors:Anna Mateos-García, María Santolaria-Otín, Yolanda Sola , Esteban Alonso-González, Jaime Otero, Luis Mariano del Rio, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Jesús Revuelto Pages: 3 - 19 Abstract: Glaciers are globally retreating due to climate change, and the Pyrenees Mountain range is no exception. This study uses the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to explore the dynamics of the Monte Perdido glacier, one of the largest remaining glaciers in the Pyrenees. We explored three calibration approaches to assess their performances when reproducing observed volume decreases. The first approach involved mass balance calibration using terrestrial laser scanning data from 2011 to 2022 and climate data from a nearby weather station. The second approach used terrestrial laser scanning calibration with default climate data provided by OGGM (GSWP3-W5E5). The third approach used default geodetic mass balance calibration and default climate data. By comparing these calibration strategies and analysing historical data (terrestrial laser scanning and ground penetrating radar), we obtain insights of the applicability of OGGM to this small, mild conditions, Pyrenean glacier. The first calibration approach is identified as the most effective, emphasising the importance of selecting appropriate climate data and calibration methods. Additionally, we conducted future volume projections using an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results indicate a potential decrease in total ice volume ranging from 91.60% to 95.16% by 2100, depending on the scenario. Overall, this study contributes to the understanding of the Monte Perdido glacier’s behaviour and its response to climate change through the calibration of the OGGM, while also providing the first estimate of its future melting under different emission scenarios. PubDate: 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.18172/cig.5816 Issue No:Vol. 50, No. 1 (2024)
Authors:Paul Arias-Muñoz, Luis Chuma-Pomasqui, Pablo Coronado Cacuango, Gabriel Jácome-Aguirre Pages: 21 - 39 Abstract: In Ecuador, around 11688.88 hectares of vegetation cover were lost in 2023 due to 1495 registered vegetation cover fires (ICV).. Therefore, this research aimed to determine areas susceptible to ICV for the Cotacachi cantón in Ecuador and its two differentiated zones. To evaluate the susceptibility to ICV in a GIS environment, the multi-criteria methods of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Radio Frequency (RF) were applied. For this purpose, 11 factors were established classified into topographic (altitude, slope, terrain orientation), climatic (precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, water deficit and wind speed) and anthropic (land cover, proximity to roads and proximity to agricultural areas). Afterwards, spatially explicit models were obtained, and the results were validated with the ROC curve and the area under the curve (AUC). The results show that around 47% of the territory is at extreme risk of ICV according to the AHP multi-criteria method and 53% of the canton according to the RF method, with a higher concentration in the subtropical zone than in the Andean zone. The performance values show that after comparing the models with heat spot information from the FIRMS-NASA system for the period 2000-2020, an AUC of 0.824 was obtained for the AHP model and an AUC value of 0.902 for the RF model. While, when compared with historical fires from the period 2018-2020, an AUC of 0.748 was obtained for the AHP model and an AUC value of 0.755 for the RF model. Finally, it is concluded that the AHP and RF multi-criteria models presented similar results and performances with minimal differences. PubDate: 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.18172/cig.5867 Issue No:Vol. 50, No. 1 (2024)
Authors:Marcelo Sili, Belén Benítez, Ariana Da Ponte Prieto Pages: 123 - 143 Abstract: The structure and evolutionary dynamic of the rural world of Latin America has always been a privileged topic in research and scientific reflection, not only at the level of the continent, but also at the international level. Scientific production has always reflected the problems of this vast rural world, but always under the influence of the social, political, and economic conditions of each historical moment. In this paper, we analyze the current scientific production on the rural world with a historical perspective, to understand the evolution of scientific thought and production. We appeal to a very simple bibliometric method based on the analysis of the most prestigious journals about the rural reality of the continent. The analysis allows us to observe a clear trend towards new topics, linked to the problems of the rural world, such as the new relationship between the countryside and the city, environmental problems, the emergence of new ways of producing, among others. PubDate: 2024-05-20 DOI: 10.18172/cig.5919 Issue No:Vol. 50, No. 1 (2024)
Authors:Maria Adell Michavila, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Raquel Montorio Llovería, ZangZang Cai, Lars Eklundh Pages: 145 - 178 Abstract: This study spatially analyzes plant phenology and its variations over time in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands. To conduct the analysis, a nearly 40-year span time series (1983-2020) was generated by merging NDVI vegetation index values from satellite images sourced from NOAA-AVHRR and MODIS sensors. The phenological variables were calculated using TIMESAT 3.3, which extracted 13 phenometrics whose trends were evaluated using the Theil-Sen model, and their significance was assessed with the Mann-Kendall test. The results reveal regional differences between Eurosiberian Spain and the Mediterranean region regarding the start and end phases of the season. On average, the Eurosiberian zones have experienced delays in their season start and end dates, by approximately 0.35 and 0.22 days per year over the study period, respectively, while the Mediterranean region has seen an advancement in leaf-out and senescence dates by about 0.07 and 0.05 days per year. A greening trend across the entire study area and significant contrasts among land covers have also been observed, opening avenues for future studies to delve deeper into these behavioral differences and their interactions with changes in climate and land management. PubDate: 2024-03-11 DOI: 10.18172/cig.5739 Issue No:Vol. 50, No. 1 (2024)
Authors:Pablo Franco-León, Marco Alberto Navarro Guzman, Eduardo Oyague Passuni, Javier Ignacio Apaza, Cesar Jove Chipana Pages: 179 - 199 Abstract: In the southernmost Andean regions of Peru, Moquegua, and Tacna, close to Chile and Bolivia borders, large forest stands of Polylepis species are essential for the social, economic, and environmental functionality of six basins. However, the need for more knowledge about their ecology, limited conservation efforts, and insufficient technical capacities for territorial regulation could accelerate their structural and functioning deterioration. Using landscape ecology -interdisciplinary science shaped by geography and biology- we found that in four evaluated areas, the composition of birds (and therefore also the resources they use) is differentiated by the influence of landscape fragmentation. Only two protected areas were legally recognized in the region, but they were established to cover small and remote isolated territories, which makes it challenging to conserve them effectively. Due to the poverty conditions common among the local communities, extractive or pastoralist activities conducted in large areas can trigger higher forest fragmentation rates. Under these circumstances, the valuable ecosystem services in the study area would be permanently lost or maintained at high risk. Because of these risks, specific measures were proposed to improve the social-environmental management of the forest by implementing mechanisms aimed at generating sustainable economic benefits in a healthy environment and social peace. PubDate: 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.18172/cig.5823 Issue No:Vol. 50, No. 1 (2024)
Authors:Federico Ferrelli, Ana Casado Pages: 41 - 57 Abstract: This study evaluates the occurrence of dry and wet events and their relationship with fires in southern Pampas, Argentina. The intensity and magnitude of dry and wet events were determined based on the regional series of the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for the 2000-2021 period. The data obtained were related to the El Niño Oceanic Index (ONI) to analyze the incidence of El Niño and La Niña events in generating them. Fires in the region were detected using remote sensing techniques, considering the number of events, their intensity, extent, and duration. The southern Pampas experiences marked rainfall variability, with 15 dry events, 11 wet years, and 2 standard years recorded for the period analyzed. Extreme dry years were, on average, more intense (SPEI = -2.14) and occurred mainly during the negative ONI phase. In contrast, extreme wet years exhibited lower intensity (SPEI = 1.98), and only the most intense ones were related to neutral ONI phases. We analyzed a representative extremely dry (ED) and an extremely wet events (EW) to interpret the relationship between climate variability and the spatiotemporal variability of fires in the region. It was observed that during the EW event (2014-2015, SPEI = 1.52, and El Niño event until 2015) the number of fires was higher compared to an ED event (2008-2009, SPEI = -2.22, and La Niña event during 2008), with 460 and 205 fires, respectively. The intensity was higher in the EW (302.6 and 31.5 MW), while the area presented considerable differences (1722 and 815.5 km2, respectively). Finally, the duration of the fires was shorter in ED than in EW (6 and 8 months, respectively). These results were related to vegetation health (NDVI = 0.29 and 0.41 and EVI = 0.15 and 0.21 in ED and EW, respectively) and changes in land covers. This study provides a solid database for future research efforts and sustainable land management plans. PubDate: 2023-11-24 DOI: 10.18172/cig.5774 Issue No:Vol. 50, No. 1 (2023)
Authors:Henrique Morgado Cerqueira, Maria José Roxo, Adolfo Calvo-Cases Pages: 59 - 83 Abstract: Soil carbon sequestration presents a pathway towards climate change mitigation and adaptation while also fostering sustainable socio-economic development. The emergence of soil carbon markets, which monetize carbon capture and land management practices, has given new impetus to this area of study. However, the intersection of environmental, social, and economic systems inherent to soil carbon markets introduces significant complexities. To understand the research landscape and the prevailing themes within the field, we conducted a systematic literature review, sourcing articles from the Web of Science and SCOPUS databases that focused on soil carbon markets, published between January 2017 and august 2023. Our analysis revealed three primary research themes emerged: 1) Soil Ecosystem Services (61%), closely associated with the agricultural and environmental sciences; 2) Environmental Economics (21%) show the growing focus on economic valuation of ecosystem services since the Paris Agreement; and 3) Exploratory Analyses (18%) highlight recent efforts in dealing with the complex network of environmental, social, economic, political and cultural factors. However, these areas of research are often treated separately, reflecting a broader disconnect between natural and social sciences: Geography, uniquely positioned at the intersection of natural and social sciences, could bridge this divide. Through a geographical lens, one can better comprehend drivers behind land management and land-use changes and how they relate to environmental indicators and soil carbon markets. In the social sciences, cultural aspects that shape soil management practices, farmers' relationships with land and markets, and their engagement with soil carbon markets could be examined to predict actions towards improving environmental performance indicators. These settings are highly local, influenced by factors like land tenure rights, landscape ecology, political settings, and power dynamics. Geography's role extends beyond merely understanding these local factors. It also involves studying 'space' and 'place', concepts that are crucial in the context of soil carbon markets. Within the framework of complexity theory and spatial agent-based modelling for socio-ecological systems, Geography can provide valuable insights into how different entities within soil carbon markets interact and influence each other. In the context of climate change, soil ecosystem services, and by extension soil carbon markets, can influence social and economic vulnerabilities. An integrated study of land use, management practices, and their impact on soil ecosystem services, using both quantitative and qualitative approaches, can provide insights into social behaviour and ecosystem responses over time. PubDate: 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.18172/cig.5767 Issue No:Vol. 50, No. 1 (2023)
Authors:Pablo García-García Pages: 85 - 107 Abstract: Over the past decades, the Mediterranean region has faced significant challenges due to the impacts of climate change and ongoing conflicts. This study proposes an assessment of the region's security status and potential future scenarios through the lens of the water-energy-food nexus, utilising indicators that align with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These indicators include agricultural yields, value-added, and land variations, water and sanitation services, income and inequality, use of renewable energy, carbon footprints, and political stability. To evaluate the situation, this analysis applies Ward's hierarchical clustering algorithm to group countries based on these indicators, examining the average terms and the years 2006 and 2015 for comparative analysis. Additionally, an exponential smoothing algorithm forecasts future trends and generates clusters for the years 2030 and 2050. By computing an index of convergence for each cluster and indicator, this contribution identifies areas of particular interest from a security perspective. The findings of this analysis reveal a growing polarisation within the Mediterranean region, with European countries and Israel forming one distinct group, and African and Eastern countries (excluding Israel) forming another. Notably, recurring disparities exist in variables such as agricultural land, political stability, violence, income per capita, and agricultural value added. Conversely, certain variables, including the Gini coefficient, prevalence of overweight population, and access to drinking water services, show signs of convergence. These results shed light on potential areas of both conflict and cooperation in the Mediterranean region, highlighting the importance of addressing the challenges posed by climate change. By understanding the geopolitical dynamics and identifying key areas of concern, policymakers can develop informed strategies to promote stability and sustainable development in the region. PubDate: 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.18172/cig.5724 Issue No:Vol. 50, No. 1 (2023)
Authors:Cecília Delgado Pages: 109 - 121 Abstract: In Portugal, local answers to climate change and food are basically twofold: the approval of a Climate Adaptive Strategy or Plan, which are largely being formulated by Portuguese municipalities and the voluntary signature of the Glasgow Food and Climate Declaration. As both folds are not binding their impact is limited. However, a recent Portuguese framework Law on Climate [2021], aligned with the European Green Deal, imposes that all municipalities must approve a municipal climate action plan before summer 2024. Such a context opens up a window of opportunity to reflect on the lessons learned from the already approved Climate Adaptive Plans and Strategies. Therefore, we explore in this paper the following inter - connected questions: (1) to what extent Climate Adaptive Plans and Strategies include the increase of local food production; (2) Do they consider each step of the food chain or solely food production' (3) To what extent are those measures transcribed into the planning rules and regulations. In order to do so, we analysed 14 Climate Adaptive Strategies or Plans of a selected group of cities that entered the national competition ECO XXI, based on a sustainable framework of multiple dimensions. In 2021, as much as 57 out of the 308 Portuguese municipalities entered the competition. Results suggest that adaptive measures relate to increasing local agriculture, mapping out land availability or highlighting the need for local agroecological practices. Moreover, Climate Adaptive Strategies or Plans, measures and actions are predominantly related to agriculture production, leaving behind subsequent food chain activities. This is probably happening due to a narrow and sectorial vision of agriculture that do not consider each one of the stages of the food chain. Lastly, the inclusion of several measures and actions into planning instruments is quite promising, even if still fragile to transform existing reality. In conclusion, there is an urgent need to expand among food stakeholders the understanding of food and agriculture as part of the food system. In addition, there is a need to increase planner’s awareness to these topics as in practice the link between food, climate and planning is still missing. Findings highlight that the potential role of planning is not being fully unleashed. Such a consideration is in line with other international studies confirming that Portugal is not an exception. Therefore, lessons we learned might turn useful for other countries. PubDate: 2023-10-25 DOI: 10.18172/cig.5679 Issue No:Vol. 50, No. 1 (2023)
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