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Abstract: Abstract Exposure to singular or overlapping external shocks, such as rainfall extremes, armed conflict, and COVID-19, may catalyze a shift in gendered power dynamics within affected households as they cope with associated threats to their safety and livelihoods. Despite evidence that women are disproportionately affected by such shocks, little scientific work has assessed the separate and combined impacts of these three external shocks on women’s lives. In this study, we examined the distinct and overlapping associations between extreme events—growing season rainfall anomalies, armed conflict during the growing season, and COVID-19—and women’s daily decision-making power in Burkina Faso. We employed longitudinal survey data from IPUMS Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA), a complex and spatially referenced dataset. These data were collected from a population-representative sample of women of reproductive age (15–49 years) in Burkina Faso across two timepoints: 2019/2020 (December 2019–February 2020) and 2020/2021 (December 2020–March 2021). PMA data from Burkina Faso contain detailed questions on women’s sociodemographic characteristics, health, and household dynamics. We spatially linked these data with (1) external rainfall data, (2) armed conflict event data, and (3) PMA coronavirus-specific follow-up survey data (containing COVID-19 knowledge and prevention behaviors) collected in June and July of 2020. Using log-binomial general estimating equation (GEE) models, we examined the relationship between extreme events—wetter-than-usual growing season, armed conflict (that resulted in at least one death), and COVID-19—and increased daily decision-making power among women. We found strong and significant associations between experiencing a wetter-than-usual growing season (i.e., greater than 1 standard deviation above 10-year mean) and women being less likely to have increased daily decision-making power in the household compared those experiencing usual rainfall during the growing season [prevalence ratio (PR): 0.70, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.56, 0.87]. Similarly, residing in an area that was more affected by the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., where 80% or more of respondents in the community reported staying home to avoid COVID-19) was also associated with women being less likely to have increased daily decision-making power in the household [PR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.91]. We did not observe any significant association between armed conflict and increased daily decision-making among women [PR: 1.15, 95% CI: 0.84, 1.57]. These trends indicate that women’s decision-making power within partnerships may be negatively impacted by certain household shocks. Centering women (and other marginalized and vulnerable communities) in the leadership, implementation, and as key beneficiaries of crisis response efforts may be an effective strategy to combat some of these constraints on women’s decision-making and even empower them within their households and communities. PubDate: 2023-09-19
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Abstract: Abstract The impact of short-term environmental changes on child nutritional status is not constant within populations. In many countries, the seasons are closely linked with many factors that are known to affect nutritional outcomes, such as food consumption, crop harvests, employment opportunities and illness. With extreme seasonal variation becoming more common, understanding how seasonality is related to child nutritional outcomes is vital. This study will explore spatial and temporal variation and determinants for acute malnutrition in a coastal river delta in south-west Bangladesh over the period of a year. Using a rural longitudinal survey, conducted in 2014–15 with 3 survey waves, wasting amongst children under 5 was studied. Spatial variation was analysed through ‘socio-ecological systems’, which capture interactions between ecosystems, livelihoods and populations. Wasting prevalence varied from 18.2% in the monsoon season to 8.7% post-major rice harvest (Aman). Seasons did not relate to wasting consistently over socio-ecological systems, with some systems showing greater variability over time, highlighting distinct seasonal dynamics in nutritional status. Wealthier socio-ecological systems had lower wasting generally, as expected, with greater livelihood diversification opportunities and strategies to smooth consumption. Nutrition interventions must consider seasonal peaks in acute malnutrition, as well as the environmental context when implementing programmes to maximise effectiveness. With increasing variability in seasonal changes, inequalities in the impact of season must be accounted for in health promotion activities. Furthermore, timing and season of survey implementation is an important factor to be accounted for in nutrition research, especially when comparing between two cross-sectional surveys. PubDate: 2023-09-16
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Abstract: Abstract This study examines how community-level cumulative environmental stress affects child and adolescent emotional distress and chronic health conditions both directly and indirectly through stressors at the household, family, and individual levels. Data comes from the Women and their Children’s Health (WaTCH) Study, which sought to understand the health implications of exposure to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DHOS) among a cohort of 596 mothers with children ages 10 to 17 in southeastern Louisiana. Community-level environmental stress was measured using a newly developed geospatial index. Household-level stressors included previous hurricane impacts, impacts of DHOS, degree of financial difficulty, and degree of housing physical decay. Family stressors included maternal depression, self-rated physical health, and degree of parenting stress. Child stress was based on perceived stress; child mental health was based on serious emotional disturbance; and child physical health was based on diagnosis of chronic illness. Structural equation modeling used weighted least squares means and variance and theta parameterization. Results showed a significant negative direct path between community-level cumulative environmental stress and child/adolescent serious emotional disturbance and chronic illness. However, the indirect relationship through household, family, and individual-level stressors was significant and positive for both child/adolescent serious emotional disturbance and chronic illness. These findings point to the centrality of the household and family in determining child and adolescent physical and mental health outcomes in communities exposed to frequent disasters and ongoing environmental stressors. PubDate: 2023-09-11
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Abstract: Abstract The ability of food systems to feed the world’s population will continue to be constrained in the face of global warming and other global challenges. Often missing from the literature on future food security are different scenarios of population growth. Also, most climate models use given population projections and consider neither major increases in mortality nor rapid declines in fertility. In this paper, we present the current global food system challenge and consider both relatively high and relatively low fertility trajectories and their impacts for food policy and systems. Two futures are proposed. The first is a “stormy future” which is an extension of the “business as usual” scenario. The population would be hit hard by conflict, global warming, and/or other calamities and shocks (e.g., potentially another pandemic). These factors would strain food production and wreak havoc on both human and planetary health. Potential increases in mortality (from war, famine, and/or infectious diseases) cannot be easily modeled because the time, location, and magnitude of such events are unknowable, but a challenged future is foreseen for food security. The second trajectory considered is the “brighter future,” in which there would be increased access to education for girls and to reproductive health services and rapid adoption of the small family norm. World average fertility would decline to 1.6 births per woman by 2040, resulting in a population of 8.4 billion in 2075. This would put less pressure on increasing food production and allow greater scope for preservation of natural ecosystems. These two trajectories demonstrate why alternative population growth scenarios need to be investigated when considering future food system transitions. Demographers need to be involved in teams working on projections of climate and food security. PubDate: 2023-09-11
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Abstract: Abstract The adverse effects of climate change are likely to harm agricultural livelihoods and food supplies worldwide. Faced with challenges resulting from increasingly unpredictable weather patterns, some farmers might abandon their occupations. Existing research has found that drier than usual weather reduces landownership rates through these pathways. Such trends could be disruptive at a population level, threatening a country’s economic and political stability. We analyze subnational agricultural landownership data that cover 50 countries on four continents between 2004 and 2017. Our Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) dataset speaks to the experiences of 1,123,714 households. Our predictor of environmental stress is the growing season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, which measures deviations from local weather patterns dating back to 1901. We find that drier than average growing season weather is associated with declining landownership rates. For every dry growing season before a DHS survey, the agricultural landownership rate falls by 2.51%. This effect is most robust in African countries, which was the focus of a recent study on this topic, and we offer several plausible interpretations of these regional differences. PubDate: 2023-09-06
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Abstract: Abstract This paper estimates the moderating effect of soil organic carbon content (a measure of soil health) on child health in response to rainfall shocks in a low-income country setting. Focusing on rural India, I leverage the Demographic and Health Survey data set and high-resolution spatial data on soil organic carbon content and meteorological variables. The results show that a high level of soil organic carbon significantly reduces the negative impact of rainfall shock on children’s weight-for-height z-scores, but not on height-for-age z-scores. PubDate: 2023-08-23
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Abstract: Abstract Care provision is a key component of women’s time use with implications for the health and wellbeing of children. Shifting labor demands resulting from weather shocks may imply that women in developing countries have less time for care provision, potentially affecting their children’s nutrition. Nonetheless, a broad literature focusing on the indirect impacts of climate change on child nutrition has yet to explore the mechanisms whereby this occurs, and whether mothers’ time use is one of these mechanisms. Using the Uganda National Panel Survey, a unique data set that gathers data on farming activities, time use, and anthropometric measures, I analyze how rainfall variability affects mother’s time use and whether time use is a mechanism whereby rainfall variability affects child nutrition in the short run (measured as weight-for-age and weight-for-height Z-scores). My results show that increased rainfall variability in the last month decreases mothers’ time share in other household-related activities (e.g., fetching water), while it increases the probability of child wasting. Moreover, using mediation analysis, I find that none of the mothers’ time-use variables appears to be a mediating factor between rainfall variability and child nutrition. These results suggest that mothers adjust their time use due to rainfall variability without jeopardizing their children’s nutritional levels. PubDate: 2023-08-19
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Abstract: Abstract The research aims to assess the demographic impact related with the implementation of an environmental policy, which affects food availability in economically and environmentally fragile settings, dependent on few, unstable resources. The paper addresses this topic from a particular perspective, namely the special goat tax issued in Italy in 1927. I focus on the goat breeding because of its ecological footprint and the key role on population’s livelihood in marginal lands. Methodologically, the paper combines quantitative and qualitative sources. The analysis of demographic dynamics in a broad set of Italian mountain municipalities over the period 1911–1971 is matched with a qualitative part, based on a careful reading of the coeval survey on mountain depopulation. Findings of the analysis highlight that the goat tax undermined food security promoted outmigration and shrinkage in municipalities that were more dependent on goat breeding only. In addition, the 1927 law generated power struggles between landowner and local communities and between collective and private properties. Such results show that socially-blind, top-down environmental policies could exacerbate inequalities, food insecurity and power conflicts that threaten the effective implementation of the law. An ecological transition must be combined with social inclusion, constant care to the governance and power relations in order to extend public support and make regulations more effective. PubDate: 2023-08-14
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Abstract: Abstract Soil moisture reflects the amount of water available to crops in the top layer of soil. As such, considering soil moisture provides important insight into water availability and ultimately crop yields in agricultural settings. In studies of climate change, food security, and health, however, soil moisture is rarely empirically considered despite its connection to crop health and yields. In this project, we aim to advance understanding of climate impacts on food security by incorporating soil moisture into quantitative models of child health. Combining spatially referenced health survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for 2005 and 2010 in Senegal and 2007, 2011, and 2014 in Bangladesh, with soil moisture data from the Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System, we explore the linkages between sub-annual and sub-seasonal climate conditions and child malnutrition in two rainfed agriculture dependent countries—Bangladesh and Senegal. Results suggest that soil moisture, measured on very short time scales, may be associated with reductions in anthropometric weight-for-height z-scores, but the relationship is highly dependent upon geographic context. PubDate: 2023-07-31
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Abstract: Abstract Small developing islands face a number of environmental and social pressures which impact resource security. This study uses a people-centred framework to investigate social-ecological interactions for water, energy and food security. Ten semi-structured focus group discussions were conducted in Pemba and Unguja islands with village elders and leaders. Results demonstrate that shocks and stresses affecting resource security are attributed to land use and resource competition, deforestation, climate change and insufficient resource infrastructure. The scale and strength of such pressures are heightened in dry seasons and also correspond with spatial characteristics such as remoteness, intensity of land use and amount of natural resource capital. Whilst a number of adaptive responses are identified, these appear to be incremental and do not address the scale of the challenge. Maladaptive responses are also identified; most concerning is the use of poor quality water when piped water was disrupted, reduced nutritional intake during dry season and using unsustainable supplies or methods of obtaining of fuelwood. Findings illustrate the importance of using people-centred approaches for understanding the complexity of social-ecological interactions for resource security. They also demonstrate that interventions for resource management need to consider spatial heterogeneity and temporality in terms of how specific land cover uses connect to differential pressures and adaptation capacity over time. PubDate: 2023-07-20
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Abstract: Abstract We study the connection between the demographic transition to an aging population and global climate policy ambition in the outcomes from recent international agreements on climate change: We test whether the share of the elderly in a population is a significant determinant of the quantity and ambition of a country’s policy actions against climate change. We use different indicators of climate policy ambition as measured by the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) of the Paris Agreement as updated in the Glasgow Climate Pact. We also use the number of climate change laws passed in a country to further test robustness of main results. We resort to instrumental variables as part of our identification strategy to account for potential endogeneity. Our econometric results indicate a negative association between the share of the elderly and both policy ambition in climate agreements and the intensity of regulatory initiatives to fight climate change. This suggests that the increasing political influence of the older population as a consequence of aging hinders climate policy ambition. Policy implications are discussed. PubDate: 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11111-023-00425-4
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Abstract: Abstract Rural populations are particularly exposed to increasing weather variability, notably through agriculture. In this paper, we exploit longitudinal data for Turkish provinces from 2008 to 2018 together with precipitation records over more than 30 years to quantify how variability in a standardized precipitation index (SPI) affects out-migration as an adaptation mechanism. Doing so, we document the role of three potential causal channels: per capita income, agricultural output, and local conflicts. Our results show that negative SPI shocks (droughts) are associated with higher out-migration in rural provinces. A mediated-moderator approach further suggests that changes in per capita income account for more than one quarter of the direct effect of droughts on out-migration, whereas agricultural output is only relevant for provinces in the upper quartile of crop production. Finally, we find evidence that local conflict fatalities increase with drought and trigger out-migration, although this channel is distinct from the direct effect of SPI shocks on out-migration. PubDate: 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.1007/s11111-023-00423-6
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Abstract: Abstract The potential adverse effects of rapid population growth on human welfare and our natural environment have been the subject of lively debate since the time of Thomas Malthus. This debate has often been contentious with pessimists arguing that population growth has extensive harmful impacts and optimists claiming that advances in technology and smoothly operating markets can take care of society’s needs without irreversible damage to the environment. This essay summarizes the evolution of the positions of pessimists and optimists after the middle of the 20th century. From the 1950s to the late 1970s the international discussion of population and environment was dominated by concern about the potential negative impact of rapid population growth in the less developed world and by the feasibility of policy options for reducing the pace of growth. A reversal of this consensus occurred in the 1980 and 1990 s leading to a revisionist view that population growth was at best a minor problem. However, by the turn of the 21st century a broader population policy agenda evolved that included not only renewed interest in the unfavorable effects of population growth but also in other issues such as climate change, international migration, and rapid urbanization. A concluding section discusses the reasons why we don’t agree. Continuing disagreements between optimists and pessimists are now less about scientific facts and more about a host of economic, ethical, aesthetic, and political questions. PubDate: 2023-06-12 DOI: 10.1007/s11111-023-00424-5
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Abstract: Abstract Between 1960 and 2011, world population grew from 3 to 7 billion, an unprecedented rate of population growth that will never be seen again. In spite of the addition of 4 billion people in just 51 years, the world experienced some of the biggest improvements in living standards in human history, with declines in poverty and improvements in food production per capita in all major regions. This paper looks at the period since 2011, during which the world added another billion people. Progress has continued in many areas, with food production continuing to grow faster than population and with continued declines in the proportion of the population in poverty in all regions. Not all trends are positive, however. Progress in food production has slowed, with recent declines in food production per capita in Africa. Prices of food and other commodities have recently hit historic highs. Climate change is a challenge to progress in combatting hunger and poverty, especially in Africa. While climate change will make it harder to meet the needs of Africa’s continued population growth in this century, the paper shows that the countries with the highest population growth account for a very small share of global CO2 emissions. The record of the last six decades suggests that progress can be made to reduce poverty and hunger, even while world population continues to grow, but continued progress will require solutions to climate change that mainly target high-income and middle-income countries. PubDate: 2023-05-30 DOI: 10.1007/s11111-023-00422-7
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Abstract: Abstract Much of the climate migration research examines whether migration is a successful/adaptive response that reduces climate risk or a failed/maladaptive response that increases risk. However, it has largely failed to examine migration outcomes through migrants’ own eyes, thereby yielding insights that are potentially disconnected from their realities and aspirations. To address this gap, we examine how migrants perceive “success” and “failure” concerning drought-influenced migration. Focusing on migration from agro-pastoral northern Kenya to the City of Nairobi, we conduct semi-structured interviews with 36 migrants who fulfill two criteria: (1) their migration was induced mainly by drought impacts, and (2) they had spent at least one year in Nairobi. We then apply a thematic analysis to identify the main success and failure perceptions. We find that migrants’ success perceptions focus on the support of their households in their places of origin. A similar failure theme pertains to migrants’ inability to achieve this objective. However, another predominant theme emphasizes failure as cultural assimilation in Nairobi, often linked with substance abuse and perceived as a trigger for cascading failures, including migrants’ inability to achieve their adaptation-related objectives. We also show how migrants’ perceptions reveal their preferences for specific adaptations, including seemingly maladaptive ones, and the role of social factors in determining migration’s overall success and/or failure. Accordingly, we argue that research must shift from framing migration narrowly as a climate risk reduction strategy, to conceptualizing it as a process of navigating a landscape of desired and undesired outcomes. PubDate: 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1007/s11111-023-00421-8
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Abstract: Abstract Communities in Puerto Rico saw their populations shrink after Hurricane Maria in 2017. Of the archipelago’s 884 populated census tracts, 613 tracts (69.3%) experienced a net population loss with an average loss of 161 people. To understand the relationship between social vulnerability and post-disaster population loss, informed by theories of environmental migration, I compare a measure of social vulnerability in Puerto Rico to population change in each tract. This study also provides an opportunity to evaluate the validity of the social vulnerability index (SVI) in Puerto Rico. Through six spatial regression models, I find that the current 15-variable SVI significantly predicts greater population loss for more vulnerable areas in Puerto Rico, in which the most vulnerable tracts lost 81 more people than tracts at the median. However, a revised 10-variable SVI—created after factor analysis by removing variables for mobile homes, group quarters, multi-unit dwellings, minority status, and limited English proficiency—produces an even larger effect size when predicting population loss, in which the most vulnerable tracts lost about 175 more people than the least vulnerable. Results suggest that a 10-variable SVI may have higher construct validity for the context of Puerto Rico and could become a foundation for a measure that better reflects local experiences with disaster. This is the first study to test the relationship between a social vulnerability index and post-disaster population change in Puerto Rico. These findings highlight the need for further investigation of the link between social vulnerability and post-disaster migration and underscore the importance of context-specific measures of social vulnerability. PubDate: 2023-05-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11111-023-00418-3
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Abstract: Abstract Using data from the Latinobarómetro (Latin Barometer) survey of 2017 to analyze the effect of social network site usage on climate change awareness in 18 Latin American countries, this article makes three contributions. First, it offers results on the socioeconomic determinants of climate awareness in a region of the world where there is scant published evidence in this regard. Second, it shows the effect of social media consumption on climate change awareness by assessing the role of each of the most popular sites: YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Snapchat, and Tumblr. Third, it assesses the effects of multi-platform consumption. The results show that YouTube has the strongest and most robust positive and statistically significant effect on climate change awareness, followed by Instagram, Twitter, and WhatsApp, while being a multi-platform user also has a positive and statistically significant effect on climate change awareness. The implications of these findings for understanding the role of social media in the development of environmental awareness are discussed. PubDate: 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11111-023-00417-4
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Abstract: Abstract In recent decades, the possibility that climate change will lead to depopulation of vulnerable areas in the global tropics via migration, mortality, or collapsing fertility has generated significant concern. We address this issue by using data on subnational population growth from 1809 subnational units across the global tropics and linked data on climate exposures to examine how decadal temperature and precipitation anomalies influence population-weighted intercensal growth rates. Our fixed-effects regression analysis reveals that the lowest predicted population growth rates occur under hot and dry conditions. The effects of heat and drought are strongest in districts that, at baseline, have high population densities, high precipitation rates, or high educational attainment. These patterns are contrary to common assumptions about these processes, and even the rare combination of hot and dry conditions, occurring in less than 7% of our sample, does not lead to local depopulation. Taken together with previous findings, this suggests that depopulation narratives do not have a strong evidentiary basis. PubDate: 2023-04-24 DOI: 10.1007/s11111-023-00420-9
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Abstract: Abstract The sustainability of livelihoods and food security by small-scale colonists in the Amazon have been associated with the dynamics of land use and land cover as well as the ability of combining distinct sources of income and welfare. However, few studies have discussed theoretically how these changes co-evolve, over distinct stages of frontier development and for the same colonist cohort, with the composition and size of farm households. This paper, based on the revision of the extant literature, proposes a Demo-livelihoods theoretical framework that combines and synthetizes three theoretical approaches — the household and land use life cycle approach, the livelihoods and capabilities approach, and the revisited theory of multiphasic responses. The objective is to provide theoretical groundings for empirical studies that unveil how microdemographics (individual and farm household) cohort dynamics in frontier settings such as the Amazon mediate livelihoods (including land use) strategies over distinct development stages. It shows how demographic factors may be significant to define livelihoods at earlier frontier stages and release explanatory power at later stages, when market integration increases and households increasingly adopt diversified livelihoods. Furthermore, demographic dynamics at each frontier stage may be associated with distinct livelihood strategies, including mobility, land use, and deforestation, and thus define the extent and nature of settler´s welfare and food security. PubDate: 2023-04-15 DOI: 10.1007/s11111-023-00419-2
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Abstract: Abstract Scholarship on the environmental dimensions of migration demonstrates the complex interplay of climatic and non-climatic factors which combine to create a potential for migration. Yet in times of environmental crisis or change, not everyone aspires to or is capable of moving to reduce their vulnerability. When, why, and how populations vulnerable to hazard risks decide not to migrate remains a significant gap in our understanding of the migration—environment relationship. Analysis of data from 38 qualitative interviews shows how Los Angeles County residents—after surviving the 2018 Woolsey Fire—developed aspirations to stay and/or rebuild, depending on the attachments and meanings associated with their communities. This paper also seeks to clarify the concept of capabilities to stay by considering separately the capabilities to return and rebuild from the capabilities to cultivate preparedness. Many who stayed also worked to strengthen community resilience to alleviate concerns of future wildfire risk. Some residents expressed individual commitments to stay and defend homes during future fires, while well-equipped volunteer fire brigades have proliferated in more affluent areas. Community mobilizations pressured local government and fire services to address the perceived institutional failure during previous fire responses and fostered feelings of collective efficacy among residents which increased their confidence to remain in high wildfire risk communities. PubDate: 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1007/s11111-023-00416-5
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