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Abstract: Abstract A unified and systematic understanding of the dynamic mechanism of high-speed and long-run-out landslides has not been achieved due to the fast-movement speed and long sliding distance. It is difficult to explain the evolution process using conventional dynamic methods. In this study, the evolution of the frictional heat in the sliding zone and dynamic process of the Guang'an Village landslide were studied through field investigation and MatDEM numerical simulation software. A nucleated high-heat area was formed near the sliding zone, and it expanded in the forward motion direction during the sliding. The high-heat area corresponded to the trajectory projection of the thickest part of the sliding mass. It was difficult for the heat generated by the friction in the sliding zone to dissipate during the few seconds of the sliding process, and 80% of the heat was stored in the rock and soil near the sliding zone, causing the temperature of these materials to increase sharply. The connection state diagram and heat field diagram of the MatDEM unit intuitively showed the fracture development process in the sliding mass and sliding bed. The results of this study provide an important reference for the evolution mechanism of high-speed and long-run-out landslides. PubDate: 2023-12-02
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Abstract: Abstract Sand storms and fine dust are known as the most important atmospheric problems in many windy regions around the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Besides all the obvious negative effects of fine dust on human life, this phenomenon can extremely reduce the physical and chemical quality of output water from treatment plants into the distribution systems. In order to show and evaluate the impact of fine dust on the physico-chemical quality of the water, a long-term (three years: 2017–2020) experimental investigation was done in the Sistan region (Iran) which is one of the most popular regions in the world with high amount of annual fine dust level. The final results showed that the most physical and chemical quality indices of output water from the local treatment plants became progressively worse after the fine dust process. The total dissolved solids (TDS) and turbidity of the water, which could even obviously be seen in the samples, were increased so that the TDS level was raised to more than 850 ppm. The level of some metals such as Fe, Ca, Mg, Na, and K increased significantly but stood within the standard levels. pH level was increased to up to 8.3 in some water samples. In addition, high levels of NO3, SO4, F, EC, HCO3, Cl, CO3, and PO4 were observed in all water samples after fine dust processes. Also, the t-student analysis showed that there was a high correlation between wind speeds and the reduction of physical and chemical quality indices in most of the water samples. Finally, the experimental analysis showed that most of these chemical elements originated from the vast bed (5,660 km2) of the dried-up Hamun’s Lake where the winds were blown over. PubDate: 2023-12-01
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Abstract: Abstract In recent years, there has been an increase in awareness and research on meteotsunamis (MT) caused by atmospheric disturbances (AD), such as widespread and long-lived cold fronts, squalls, and storms. In this work, an AD model that was developed previously has been used along with depth-integrated Navier Stokes equations to conduct 34,560 numerical experiments in the Gulf of Mexico using High-Performance Computing. The data generated is visualized with a newly developed characterization tool—the meteotsunami rose chart, described in detail. For a given location, MT rose charts provide a detailed relationship between the expected maximum MT amplitude and the AD’s path, direction, and forward speed. Another new tool, the severe MT rose charts, complements these by summarizing the case scenarios with an amplitude of more than 0.3 m. An interactive online implementation has also been introduced. A sensitivity study conducted on the various constant parameters associated with it gives an idea of the factors to account for when using MT rose charts. The newly developed visualization tools are used to study the meteotsunami hazard for Clearwater Beach, FL; some critical scenarios were identified, and observations were made. These tools were then applied to 7 other places along the Gulf of Mexico to draw some broad conclusions on how the bathymetry of the region relates to severe MT hazard scenarios. It was observed that relatively slower-moving ADs produce the most severe MTs along coasts with broad continental shelves. In comparison, narrower continental shelves cause the most severe MTs for fast-moving ADs. PubDate: 2023-12-01
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Abstract: Abstract This paper re-examines the influence of urban development on the number of flood events in Java from 1970 to 2020. This paper aims to prove development policies in Indonesia in the last 50 years and to analyze the correlation between flood events, population growth, and urbanization on a broader regional scale. The Moran-I spatial autocorrelation analysis method is applied to measure its spatial autocorrelation between urbanization and flood events. The dynamic urbanization illustrated by spatial–temporal analysis from the 1970 to the 2020s using Landsat data; in this case, urbanization is measured using the parameters of population concentration and built-up area growth in urban areas of Java. In more detail, the results of hot-spot clusters show development from “lower-low” dispersion in the 70 s to areas with a majority of “higher-high” clustered in 2000–2020. It proves that the development burden in Java is in high category impact, so solutions for population distribution, land development, and spatial planning are needed to ensure environmental sustainability in Java. PubDate: 2023-12-01
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Abstract: Abstract Mudurnu County, situated in northwestern Turkey, is a prominent settlement area because it is located on major trade routes (i.e., the Silk Road and the Crimean Road) and has served as a trading town and a military base in the Byzantine, Seljuk, and Ottoman periods. Mudurnu County is affected by regional complex rock slope instabilities that pose a substantial hazard to the settlement area and generate regional risk to human life, buildings, houses, and industrial facilities. Mudurnu, because of its invaluable historical structures, has been nominated for the UNESCO World Heritage List. Yet, those historical structures are threatened by the rock instabilities. The aim of the paper is to characterize the rock mass on the western slopes of the Mudurnu Valley, through geomechanical evaluation of the rock and empirical assessment of the slope instabilities. The engineering geological and geomechanical properties of the area were acquired via a 3D point cloud together with field scan-line surveys. The western slope of the Mudurnu Valley was divided into 11 geomechanically uniform sectors. Classification of the sectors using the SMR and Q-slope methods demonstrated that the rock mass was prone to complex planar, wedge, and toppling failures. Proper identification of such complex failures was performed using a decision tree methodology. Estimation of the probabilities of the complex failures was accomplished using empirical classifications and field observations. It was found that Sector 8 was the most critical for combined toppling and wedge failures, as well as toppling with a combination of planar and wedge failures. In addition, Sector 6 was the most critical for combined toppling and planar failures. PubDate: 2023-12-01
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Abstract: Abstract The Port of Klaipeda, situated in Klaipeda Strait that connects the southeastern Baltic Sea with the Curonian Lagoon, is prone to dangerous sea-level oscillations originating from various sources and possessing a wide range of physical characteristics. The present study investigates extreme seiches (meteotsunamis) in this basin spanning a five-year period (2017–2021), with a primary focus on determining their origin and specific factors triggering devastating events. On average, strong seiches result in over 60 days of hazardous situations, requiring the partial or complete halt of the port operations. We examined in detail two specific events: 23–24 December 2017 and 20 June 2020. The first event was forecasted, while the second event was not predicted according to the existing forecasting procedure. We found that for both events amplified seiche oscillations and associated intense currents were observed at two dominant periods: 26 and 14 min, which appear to be related to the primary Eigen modes of the port. Our findings emphasize the frequent presence of hazardous seiches in the Port of Klaipeda, highlighting the necessity to update and improve the forecasting methodology. A reliable forecasting system for the Port of Klaipeda should be based on the resonant properties of the port and relationships between weather patterns and induced long waves affecting the port. PubDate: 2023-11-30
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Abstract: Abstract Earthquakes of Mw ≥ 7 are usually followed by damaging aftershocks. The Mw ≥ 5 aftershocks tend to cause further damage to structures already weakened by the main shock. Using Omori’s Law modified by Utsu et al. (J Phys Earth 43(1):1–33, 1995) and the aftershock data for the first 44 days, within 500 km radius of the 6 February 2023 Turkiye earthquake, it was estimated that Mw ≥ 5 aftershocks may continue for 250 days (Rekapalli and Gupta in Nat Hazards 117(3):3399–3402, 2023). It is noted that Mw ≥ 5 aftershocks have continued for 191 days. No such aftershock has occurred since 16 August 2023. PubDate: 2023-11-29
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Abstract: Abstract In this study, the rainfall measurement characteristics of an optical particle size velocity (Parsivel) disdrometer, tipping-bucket rain gauge (TBG), and Pluvio weighing precipitation gauge (WPG) were analyzed and compared. Correlation analysis was performed between the 10-min and 1-h rainfall data observed with the Parsivel, TBG, and Pluvio from 2010 to 2019 at the Cloud Physics Observation Site which is located in northeast area of South Korea (N37.6869, E128.7586). At higher rainfall intensities, the Parsivel observed more rainfall; however, the TBG lost more rainfall during observation. The correlation between the Pluvio and Parsivel data was higher than that between the TBG and Parsivel data. Additionally, the Pluvio showed reduced loss in the rainfall observation than that by the TBG. The correlation between the Pluvio and TBG data was the highest, and the coefficient of determination increased by a maximum of 42.08% for 1-h rainfall compared to that for 10-min rainfall. Therefore, the Pluvio can generate relatively accurate rainfall data for water resource utilization. PubDate: 2023-11-29
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Abstract: Abstract Cumulus convection clouds can produce a lot of rain in a short duration of time over a constrained area. Severe natural disasters like cloudbursts are regularly experienced as heavy rainfall events (HREs) in the North-West Himalayan region and during the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall season (June–September). These events cause significant losses in terms of life, infrastructure, crops, etc. Therefore, it is crucial to understand and predict such events in order to minimize costs. This study simulates an HRE that occurred in Mandi, India, on August 7, 2015, for a period of 24 h using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a numerical weather prediction system. To study the key elements of HRE, various cloud microphysics (CMP) methods are subjected to a sensitivity analysis. Ten CMP systems (CAM, Goddard, Lin, Milbrandt-Yau, Morrison, Thompson, WDM6, WSM3, WSM5, and WSM6) are taken into account in the sensitivity analysis. To ascertain how well the WRF model with each scheme represents such extreme localized heavy rainfall episodes, the model output is examined. The Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) reanalysis and the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPMIMERG) Final run (V06B) satellite estimate datasets are used to create the observation proxies, which have horizontal resolutions of 12 km and 10 km, respectively. The output examination of the coarser and higher resolutions revealed that the WSM3 method performed very closely to the observation. Additionally, the bias in the simulated rainfall distributions of the Morrison and WSM3 schemes is evaluated for both domains; the WSM5 schemes showed the least error. Several meteorological variables that are connected to rainfall patterns, such as cloud fraction, maximum reflectivity, convective available potential energy, and wind flow field, are also thoroughly examined. PubDate: 2023-11-29
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Abstract: Abstract Assessment of flood damage caused by dam failures is typically performed deterministically on the basis of a single preselected scenario, neglecting uncertainties in dam-break parameters, exposure information, and vulnerability model. This paper proposes a probabilistic flood damage model for the estimation of life loss due to dam-break flooding with the aim of overcoming this limitation and performing a more comprehensive and informative evaluation of flood risk. The significant novelty lies in the fact that the model combines uncertainties associated with all three components of risk: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Uncertainty in flood hazard is introduced by considering a set of dam-break scenarios, each characterized by different breach widths and reservoir levels. Each scenario is linked to a probability, which is assumed conditional on the dam-break event. Uncertainty in exposure is accounted for using dasymetric maps of the population at risk for two socio-economic states (representing business and non-business hours of a typical week), along with associated likelihood. Vulnerability to flooding is described through a well-established empirical hazard-loss function relating the fatality rate of the population at risk to the flood hazard, the flood severity understanding, and the warning time; a confidence band provides quantitative information about the associated uncertainty. The probabilistic damage model was applied to the case study of the hypothetical collapse of Mignano concrete gravity dam (northern Italy). The main outcome is represented by probabilistic flood damage maps, which show the spatial distribution of selected percentiles of a loss-of-life risk index coupled with the corresponding uncertainty bounds. PubDate: 2023-11-29
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Abstract: Abstract Indian southwest monsoon rainfall has a huge socioeconomic influence, and any changes in monsoon rainfall patterns will have major consequences for agriculture, water supplies, and other connected sectors of economy. The paper explores the charactering and forecasting of the southwest monsoon rainfall (June to September) patterns over the Central region of India for the period (1901–2021: 121 years) using linear state space modeling. The study period is split into two periods, i.e., earlier period (EP: 1901–1950) and the recent period (RP: 1951–2021). The linear state space model (LSSM) with significant latent components such as trend, seasonal, periodic and random variations or noise is selected for modeling the southwest monsoon rainfall (SWMR) based on Bayesian information criteria (BIC) and statistical fit for the two periods. The result indicates that an increase in linear time trend during the EP and the RP has a decreasing local linear time trend in SWMR, and it is interesting to notice that the EP had no noteworthy periodic variations, whereas the RP exhibits significant periodic variations in SWMR. Further, the selected LSSM forecasts SWMR patterns for the period 2022–2028, and it has been observed that the Central Indian region is expected to receive substantial rainfall in the years 2026, 2027 and 2028. PubDate: 2023-11-29
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Abstract: Abstract Global warming has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events worldwide. Arid and semi-arid regions, such as the Tensift basin in Morocco, have experienced severe water shortages as a result. The unavailability of quality data limits our understanding of the occurrence of extreme events and their associated impacts. This study assesses the accuracy of eight satellite, reanalysis, and merged precipitation products (SRMP): PERSIANN, PERSIANN CDR, IMERG, ARC2, RFE2, CHIRPS, ERA5, and MSWEP, in estimating extreme precipitation in the Tensift basin. The datasets were assessed against observed data from fourteen weather stations for the period 2001–2016 at daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales. Volumetric and categorical metrics were used for analysis, along with evaluation of extreme precipitation indices (EPI) and drought characterization. The ability of SRMP to characterize meteorological drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was also examined. A complementary analysis is carried out by comparing all the SRMPs to reproduce the precipitation of November 2014 event. Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) mapping bias correction method was employed to enhance the performance of the SRMP, with particular focus on improving the extreme events. Results showed that PERSIANN CDR, IMERG, MSWEP, and ERA5 exhibit the highest accuracy, performing relatively well at monthly and annual time scales (correlation > 0.7, Rbias < 0.4). The weakest seasonal performance for all products was evident in summer while autumn showed the best results. PERSIANN CDR emerged as the most reliable product for reproducing extreme precipitation events over Tensift region, while MSWEP, ERA5, and PERSIANN CDR were the most suitable products for studying drought events. The CDF performs well as a bias correction technique in the Tensift basin, particularly for extreme events. In conclusion, PERSIANN CDR, IMERG, MSWEP, and ERA5 demonstrated high accuracy in estimating extreme precipitation in the Tensift basin. These findings have implications for water managers in the region, providing valuable information to address water shortages during extreme events, as well as for studying the effects of climate change on drought conditions. PubDate: 2023-11-29
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Abstract: Abstract The effects of global warming and climate change appear as increasing or decreasing trends in hydrometeorological records in different locations. Identifying trends in long-term (more than 30 year) data is possible through a variety of methodologies as well as classical Mann–Kendall (MK), Regression (R), Spearman’s Rho (SR) methods in addition to the innovative trend analysis (ITA) approaches. The most used method in the literature is the MK trend determination test, but it has limited assumptions, and the trend slope is calculated according to Sen’s median procedure. However, Sen’s approach is an empirical methodology that considers a single median slope from all possible consecutive lag slopes. This paper provides the theoretical probability distribution function (PDF) that matches Sen’s slopes, and an innovative probabilistic trend slope methodology is proposed with a set of slope risk levels, rather than statistical slope calculation. The application of the proposed methodology is presented for long-term Danube River annual discharge data in Romania and precipitation records at Antalya resort center in the south along the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. A set of trend lines, objectively different risk levels, are obtained. It has been determined that there are decreasing and increasing monotonic trends in each historical time series record. Therefore, for extreme events, it is possible to consider a particular risk level trend characteristic, i.e., floods and droughts, rather than the classical mean or median level trend definition. PubDate: 2023-11-28
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Abstract: Abstract The low-lying islands of the Indian Sundarbans Delta (ISD) contain a unique ecosystem with rich biodiversity, which are at the forefront of the impacts of climate change and natural disasters, such as cyclones. Therefore, in this study, we have analyzed the impact of Cyclone Yaas at the local level in the ISD. We utilized various indices derived from MODIS satellite images to analyze the local-level impacts. The results of our study revealed widespread impacts from high storm surges of 9–16 feet. In general, the daytime land surface temperatures (LSTs) were higher before compared to during the storm, due to lower insolation associated with cloudy skies. However, higher values were observed during the storm for nighttime LSTs and the vegetation indices. More specifically, at the local level, the differences were more pronounced in the vegetated and low-lying coastal areas of the islands. The results of the image analyses were also corroborated with field observations in some of the islands, which showed saltwater encroachment in agricultural lands, collapsed embankments built for protection against storm surge, and food insecurity. The results of our study highlighted the vulnerability of these islands to extreme weather events, and long-lasting impacts on the local communities. PubDate: 2023-11-28
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Abstract: Abstract We present a ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) of peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the Gulf of California, Mexico, derived from 1326 PGA values of 720 earthquakes recorded between 2015 and 2018 by the Red Sismológica de Banda Ancha del Golfo de California (RESBAN), operated by the Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada, Baja California (CICESE). We evaluated and adjusted two different parametric forms of GMPE developed for transcurrent tectonic regimes that resemble the tectonic setting in the Gulf of California, along with an additional parametric form developed for central Mexico that incorporates the focal depth as an independent variable. All three adjustments exhibit appropriate behavior in terms of residual analysis and variables stability, with the adjusted parametrical form of Joyner and Boore (Bull Seismol Soc Am 71:2011–2038, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0710062011) providing the best overall performance. The proposed GMPE is: \(log\mathrm{PGA}=-2.27+0.4M+0.065\mathrm{log}\left(r\right)-0.0034 \left(r\right)+{\sigma }_{\mathrm{A}}+{\sigma }_{\mathrm{E}}\) , with \(r=\sqrt{{d}^{2}+{11.86}^{2}}\) . PGA is peak horizontal acceleration in cm/s2, M is magnitude and d is epicentral distance. σA = 0.18 and σE = 0.4 correspond to the intra-event and inter-event standard deviations, respectively. Although the inclusion of focal depth as an independent variable enhanced adjustments in various tectonic regions, it did not provide a specific advantage in this context. To account for depth variations, we incorporated a fixed value representing the average focal depth into the distance definition (11.86 km) effectively capturing the seismic characteristics of the region and emphasizing the importance of regional-specific factors in GMPE development and refinement. PubDate: 2023-11-28
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Abstract: Abstract The North-Western Himalayas are becoming the hotspots for hydro-meteorological catastrophes due to climate change implications. Present study aims to analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of hailstorms, posing a threat to livelihood security in the Valley of Kashmir on account of significant land use shift from agriculture to horticulture which is highly susceptible to hail hazard. The mean maximum and mean minimum temperature and annual rainfall for Qazigund, Kupwara and Srinagar weather stations were analysed through statistical treatments like Mann Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator. To establish the land use change scenario, area under horticulture and under Apple was calculated and demonstrated with the help of regression analysis. Hailstorm incidents were calculated through the archival newspapers from 2007 to 2022 and mapped spatio-temporally in GIS environment. Additionally, to forecast the near-term hail scenario, a trendline was established by using Linear Regression Equation for a period of 2022–2040. Furthermore, a 4 Point Likert scale survey for evaluating the perception of people regarding the changing climatic scenarios and intensification of hailstorm activity was carried out throughout the valley. A total of 203 hailstorm events have occurred from year 2007 to 2022. The findings reveal that the hail storm intensity and frequency has increased with the corresponding increase in temperature and decline in rainfall on account of changing Climatic scenarios across the Kashmir Valley. There has been an increase in hailstorms from 2 events in the year 2007 to 27 events in 2022. North-Kashmir districts, namely Baramulla and Kupwara are emerging as the hail storm hot spots during the spring seasons due to their location around the entrance corridor of western disturbance. The southern districts of Pulwama, Shopian and Anantnag have witnessed enhanced summer hailstorm activity probably under the influence of south-west monsoons. The forecast indicated a significant increase in the hailstorm occurrence with an R2 value of 0.83. The study also concludes that hailstorms are responsible for (30–70%) loss in the productivity of horticulture in the affected areas, thereby threatening livelihood of millions of farmers. Furthermore, the study indicates that the region does not have adequate adaptation and mitigation strategies in place as only 0.06% of the horticulturists are having Anti-hail net protection while as the crop insurance-cover is almost non-existent. The study shall be helpful in developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to combat the hail hazard for securing livelihoods by promoting sustainable horticulture in the region. PubDate: 2023-11-28
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Abstract: Abstract Large-scale loss of life and property occurred in Kahramanmaraş and its districts, which are the city center where the epicenters of the earthquake couples that occurred on February 6, 2023, in Türkiye. Major damage has occurred in different structural systems due to the earthquake. In addition, fault traces that are the source of the earthquake were clearly observed on the ground surface. In this study, the effects of both earthquakes on soil, reinforced concrete, masonry, prefabricated, and other structural systems were evaluated observationally in Kahramanmaraş and its districts. Comparisons were made on the last two earthquake maps used in Türkiye for the locations of strong ground motion measuring devices in Kahramanmaraş. The masonry structures, which are common in rural areas in the epicenter, have been heavily damaged because they have not received engineering service. However, it is seen that the concrete buildings have insufficient strength and ductility. A similar situation is also present in industrial precast structures, and it has been observed that the damaged and collapsed in these structures are manufactured without complying with the type connection details given for prefabricated reinforced concrete structures in the codes. It has also been observed that the soil-structure interaction is the most determining parameter in the structure’s performance in these earthquake couples. Especially in weak soils, the damage to the structures has been quite heavy. The field data obtained from the earthquakes showed that some of the conditions of the current earthquake code should be discussed again. PubDate: 2023-11-28
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Abstract: Abstract Planning and decision making in emergency response systems face new challenges due to climate changes and the increased risk of multiple or compound natural hazards. This is especially the case in areas with inexperience of such events. The aim of this paper is to identify important activities concerning planning and decision-making during responses to natural hazards, and their potential need for decision support. The knowledge base of the study consists of interviews with 12 representatives from the Swedish emergency response system, supplemented by documents covering policies, operations, and responsibility. Thematic coding was applied to the interview data for identification of important planning and decision activities. Needs of decision support were identified by applying activity theory to the identified activities. We found needs of decision support connected to eight identified key activities concerning consequence analysis, national reinforcements, and resource management. The results illuminate a lack of technology to support response activities during both single and multiple natural hazards. The findings can inform policy makers of emergency response of where to concentrate the development of tools for collaborative preparedness and response work to cope with future challenges from natural hazards. PubDate: 2023-11-28
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Abstract: Abstract Urbanization is one of the main factors altering hydrological processes. To understand the influence of urbanization on flood characteristics including runoff, inundation and streamflow, it is essential to quantify the level of urbanization and analyze the corresponding impacts on flood. This study proposed an integrated and systematic framework to assess how urbanization affects flood characteristics in Hangzhou, China. Land use changes in 2000–2020 representing the level of urbanization were extracted from Landsat images with an ensemble machine learning method and future scenarios were designed with Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS). The runoff, inundation and streamflow under 24 h design rainfall with 100 year return period were assessed using the integrated hydrologic-hydraulic model for land use of different years. Finally, the relationship between land use changes and flood characteristics were identified and analyzed. It was found that the study area underwent a rapid urbanization process with artificial surface increasing from 6.93% to 29.12% during 2000–2020. Total runoff volume and total inundation volume showed a growing trend with a percentage change of 5.96% and 12.33% respectively under the design rainfall. This study highlights the significance of water body area in influencing flood characteristics. The results of this study can improve understanding of flood responses to land use and provide useful insight to decision makers in developing urban flood management measures. PubDate: 2023-11-28
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