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Russian Meteorology and Hydrology
Journal Prestige (SJR): 0.206  Number of Followers: 3  Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)ISSN (Print) 1934-8096 - ISSN (Online) 1068-3739 Published by Springer-Verlag  [2468 journals]
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- Turbulent Heat Fluxes over the Barents and Kara Seas, Long-term
Variability and Connection to Atmospheric Circulation-
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Abstract: The paper considers the spatial and temporal variability of sensible and latent heat fluxes over the Barents and Kara seas during 1979–2018 based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis data with a 6-hour resolution. It is shown that the localization of extreme turbulent fluxes over the past decades has not changed as compared to the middle and second half of the 20th century. It is revealed that the greatest spatial and temporal variability of the fluxes is observed in the southern and southwestern sectors of the Barents Sea. It is demonstrated that the winter values of the spatial variability of heat fluxes exceed the summer ones by 2–5 times, and annual total heat flux values in the Barents Sea are 3–5 times higher than in the Kara Sea. The study of the influence of the pressure field anomalies during different phases of the North Atlantic, Arctic, and Scandinavian oscillations on the intensity of turbulent fluxes showed that the area of warm currents of the Barents Sea is most sensitive to changes in the atmospheric circulation.
PubDate: 2023-07-01
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- The Role of Vertical and Horizontal Wind Shear in the Development of
Quasi-tropical Cyclones-
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Abstract: Cloud-resolving modeling has been implemented to investigate a lifecycle of two quasi-tropical cyclones (QTCs) over the Black and Mediterranean seas in September 2005 and 2018. The formation of the Mediterranean QTC under the influence of the PV streamer and the problems of predicting this phenomenon are considered. The influence of the mesocyclone wind system on cumulus convection is studied, while mesocyclone winds are assumed to be axisymmetric for simplicity. It has been found for the largest and most intense QTCs that vertical wind shear may lead to the formation of supercellular storms, but to a rather limited extent and as a result of deviations of mesocyclone currents from the axial symmetry. In small intense QTCs, horizontal wind shear can suppress convection over a certain range of distances from the center of a cyclone, leading to a release of latent heat closer to it.
PubDate: 2023-07-01
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- Assessing the Impact of Climate Factors on Interannual Variability of
Water Temperature and Salinity in the Barents Sea-
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Abstract: Based on shipboard measurements taken in 1984–2017, the multiyear variations in the surface water temperature and salinity in the Barents Sea during the spring-summer period are investigated. A regression analysis has found increasing trends for both analyzed parameters, indicating warming processes in the Arctic regions. Application of linear and nonlinear models revealed significant influence of the global atmospheric circulation, the hydrological conditions at the Kola Meridian secular section, and the sea ice cover area on the long-term dynamics of surface temperature and salinity in the Barents Sea. The highest measured values were associated with a positive mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation indices, high water temperatures in the coastal flow of the Murmansk Current, and low sea ice concentrations. Results of the study can be used for further monitoring of the Barents Sea oceanography during the period of global climatic changes.
PubDate: 2023-07-01
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- On the Relationship of Cirrus Clouds and Upper Tropospheric Relative
Humidity Fields with Symmetric Instability-
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Abstract: The relationship of cirrus clouds and areas of increased relative humidity in the upper troposphere with symmetric instability developing on the subtropical (anticyclonic) side of jet streams are explored. Theoretical arguments are supplemented by case studies related to the Northern and Southern hemispheres. Using satellite images of cirrus clouds and reanalysis data, the values of the vertical eddy viscosity, which compensates for the inviscid growth of disturbances in case of symmetric instability, are estimated. At the levels of 250 and 200 hPa, a significant correlation between high relative humidity and potential vorticity characteristic of symmetric instability is confirmed.
PubDate: 2023-07-01
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- Analysis of the Atmosphere and the Ocean Upper Layer State Predictability
for up to 5 Years Ahead Using the INMCM5 Climate Model Hindcasts-
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Abstract: A series of hindcasts for 1–5 years were performed using the INM RAS climate model (INMCM5). Each forecast started on November 1 every year during 1980–2020. The predictability of large-scale climate variability modes on timescales from a season to 5 years is assessed with the series of INMCM5 hindcasts. The spatial distribution of correlation coefficients of the temporal anomalies of the annual mean ocean water temperature averaged for the depths from 0 to 300 m and correlation coefficients of temporal anomalies of the Arctic sea ice area are calculated using the hindcasts, historical experiments and their extensions according to the SSP3-7.0 scenario of the INM RAS climate model. The contributions of initial conditions and external forcings to the predictability of the anomaly correlation coefficients are evaluated.
PubDate: 2023-07-01
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- Lightning and Forest Fires under Modern Climatic Conditions of Central
Siberia-
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Abstract: The paper presents the results of an analysis of the spatial distribution of forest fires and their causes in the forest areas of Central Siberia in 1987–2020. An increase in the share of fires from lightning discharges has been recorded ( \(R^{2} = 0.78\) , \(p <0.05\) ). A spatiotemporal extrapolation of long-term meteorological data series has been performed. An increase in thunderstorm activity by at least 30% relative to the average annual norm for the end of the 20th century has been revealed for the entire territory of Central Siberia. It is shown that if current trends are maintained until 2100, the number of lightning discharges during the fire season (March–September) will determine up to 10–40% increase in the number of fires caused by lightning. Thunderstorm activity can be one of the significant factors in the toughening of fire regimes in Central Siberia.
PubDate: 2023-07-01
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- Correlations between Interannual Variations in Ice Cover Characteristics
and Sea Levels of the Kara Sea Gulfs in Winter-
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Abstract: The paper aims to put forward and check the hypothesis that interannual variations in the monthly means of sea ice thickness and concentration in the Kara Sea gulfs from November to March can be significantly influenced by variations in their sea levels. Some areas of the Gulf of Ob, Yenisei, Baidarata and Gydan gulfs are considered. The areas where such influence was really observed in 1993–2019 are identified. It is suggested that with further warming of the Arctic climate, the total extent of such areas will grow, and consideration of the revealed relationships will provide more precise prediction of changes in ice and navigation conditions in these gulfs.
PubDate: 2023-07-01
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- On Helicity of Ekman Boundary Layers
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Abstract: The sensitivity of the results of calculating atmospheric flow helicity in the atmospheric boundary layer with respect to the factor of nonstationarity and details of the eddy exchange description is theoretically investigated. The study shows that estimates often used in the framework of the classical Ekman model can lead to significantly overestimated values of helicity. Appropriate estimates and variants of refined calculations are given.
PubDate: 2023-07-01
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- Evaluation of the Riverine Heat Influx Impact on the Arctic Ice Cover
Based on Numerical Modeling-
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Abstract: Three-dimensional numerical modeling is used to assess the sensitivity of the sea ice state in the Arctic deep-water basin to changing the riverine heat influx. The change in the sea ice volume due to the heat coming with river waters relative to its annual average value is analyzed. Numerical experiment results demonstrate an increase in the riverine heat contribution to the Arctic sea ice decline at the end of the second decade of the present century. This process is most manifested in the deep-water part of the Eastern Hemisphere, which is determined by immediate proximity to the largest Siberia’s rivers and the system of the circulation of shelf seas and deep-water basins under conditions of increasing air temperature and sea ice reduction in the Arctic.
PubDate: 2023-07-01
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- Development of a Stochastic Weather Generator for Simulating
Meteorological Time Series in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation-
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Abstract: A stochastic weather generator is proposed in the paper. The model is designed for the numerical simulation of joint time series of surface air temperature, wind speed, and relative air humidity with a three-hour resolution at weather stations located in the Russian Arctic. The proposed weather generator allows taking into account the non-Gaussian form of one-dimensional distributions of meteorological parameters and the diurnal variations inherent to real series. The results of verifying the proposed model are presented, and the prospects of its further application are briefly described.
PubDate: 2023-07-01
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- Connection of Wildfires in Russian Regions to Atmospheric Blockings
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Abstract: Results of the analysis of wildfires in Russian regions using satellite data for 2000–2021 are presented. The results indicate a predominant increase in the number of intense fires in Russia, which has been especially noticeable in recent years. Using reanalysis data, a significant correlation between wildfires in Russia and atmospheric blocking has been revealed. An integral blockings index, whose value can reach and exceed 10% for fire seasons in Russian regions from April to October, was used to characterize atmospheric blocking. It has been found that an increase in the integral blockings index by 1% corresponds to an increase in the number of forest fires in Russia by 14%. According to the estimates, the contribution to the variance of interannual change in the number of wildfires associated with atmospheric blockings reaches \(\sim\) 40%.
PubDate: 2023-07-01
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- Erratum to: Estimated Black Carbon Emissions from Priority Source
Categories in Russia-
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Abstract: An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373923060080
PubDate: 2023-06-01
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- Assimilation of Expedition Observation Data on Water Temperature and
Salinity in the Region of Drake Passage-
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Abstract: Results of numerical experiments on the assimilation of in situ temperature and salinity profiles observed in the region of Drake Passage (the South Atlantic) during the expedition of Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) in the autumn of 2011 into the INMOM model developed by Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of RAS are considered. The previously developed method of assimilation presented in several publications is used. As a result of some experiments, it has been shown that the structure of the anticyclonic circulation associated with the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence in the area of the Argentine Basin has been mostly affected by the expedition data assimilation. Assimilated fields of ocean temperature on the surface and at various horizons show better agreement with reanalysis data than corresponding fields without assimilation. It is also demonstrated that the influence of assimilation spreads much further beyond the local area of observations and leads to changing all calculated characteristics (not only observed ones).
PubDate: 2023-06-01
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- Estimation of Errors in Calculated Values of Hydrological Characteristics
in Case of Observation Series Inhomogeneity-
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Abstract: The determination of errors in the runoff probability distribution parameters when estimating them on a heterogeneous sample is considered. For the case that allows using composite curves (or a mixture of distributions), some expressions for errors of the estimates of the mean and the variation coefficient are proposed. It has been found that accounting of the sample heterogeneity based on a probabilistic model of the time series, which allows its examination in the form of two stationary sections without accounting the averaged autocorrelation, magnifies the error of the mean value estimate. It is shown that the overestimation of the first autocorrelation coefficient assessed on the entire series without taking into account inhomogeneity should be considered.
PubDate: 2023-06-01
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- Fine-scale Modeling of Water Dynamics on the Shelf and Continental Slope
in the Antarctic-
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Abstract: The use of the Fluidity-ICOM model in a full non-hydrostatic formulation enables the correct investigation of fine-scale water dynamics and water transformations on the Antarctic shelf and the continental slope. A possibility of solving problems with high order of accuracy in models is determined by the use of a three-dimensional adaptive unstructured mesh with automatic refinement to given scales. The modernization of the graphical model output has made it possible to visualize reliably the details of simulated hydrophysical process development, to obtain the numerical estimates of parameters of these processes, and to verify them against unique field observation data. An original three-dimensional numerical experiment was held in the area of a shelf glade with an open water surface. In this case, the real salt (buoyancy) flux is specified, which is caused by the in-water ice formation in the glade and obtained from the actual atmospheric forcing. As a result, the convective circulation was correctly simulated as a process of forming dense water on the shelf, which then flows down the shelf and the continental slope in the form of discrete density currents. Similarity of the model geometric, dynamic, and hydrophysical characteristics of cascading with the characteristics obtained from the analysis of field observations is noted.
PubDate: 2023-06-01
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- Analysis of River Runoff Characteristic Comparability Based on Long-term
Observations and Reanalysis Data: A Case Study on the Western Siberia
Rivers-
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Abstract: Long-term observation series of hydrological and climatic parameters should be obtained to solve the problems of assessing and forecasting the hydrological regime of river basins. In the absence of surface measurements of these parameters, reanalysis data can be used. The paper presents a comparison of the runoff magnitude and the consistency of runoff dynamics based on the observational data of gauging stations and the ERA5-Land and TerraClimate reanalysis data for seven rivers of Western Siberia (the left-bank tributaries of the Yenisei located in the zones of taiga and forest-tundra). Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients for seasonal and annual runoff between the data of reanalysis and the actual data are equal to 0.35–0.98. The normalized root-mean-square error of annual runoff according to the reanalysis ranges from 13 to 21%. The values of errors and correlation coefficients depend on geographic location and area of the basins and vary during a season.
PubDate: 2023-06-01
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- Simulation of Stratospheric Processes with the SLAV072L96 Atmospheric
General Circulation Model-
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Abstract: Dynamics of the stratosphere and ozone layer are among important sources of atmospheric circulation predictability at subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales. The simulation of the stratospheric dynamics with the SL-AV atmospheric general circulation model for the SLAV072L96 seasonal weather prediction configuration is analyzed. The configuration is currently under preoperational testing at the Hydrometcenter of Russia. The model simulates both winter and summer averaged distributions of zonal wind and temperature close to the reanalysis data. The quasi-biennial oscillation of equatorial zonal wind is simulated with a realistic period and amplitude. There is a significant reduction of errors as compared with the previous stratosphere-resolving SL-AV model configuration. It is shown that the stratospheric process simulation enhancement is largely due to the reduction of systematic errors in the simulation of troposphere dynamics. The work on the inclusion of the CHARM photochemical model in the SL-AV model is described. The results of first experiments with the coupled model are given.
PubDate: 2023-06-01
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- Anthropogenically Changed Water Entering Water Bodies in the Don Basin
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Abstract: Based on the data of water balance stations and water management statistics, the total amount of anthropogenically altered water entering the water bodies of the Don basin has been calculated for a period from the 1980s until recently. These are industrial, domestic and agricultural waste and return (collector-drainage) waters entering rivers and water bodies from the so-called point sources and usually containing certain pollution even after treatment, as well as diffuse runoff from agricultural (non-irrigated) lands and urban areas which inflows to the hydrographic network (ravines, gullies, river valleys) with the pollutants washed out from these territories. Diffuse runoff is usually not purified. It is found that the volume of uncontrolled diffuse runoff from agricultural lands and urbanized territories in the Don basin is comparable to the volume of waste and return water or even exceeds it. This largely explains the unsatisfactory water quality in this basin, because water protection measures are mainly aimed at reducing pollution from point sources.
PubDate: 2023-06-01
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- Ozone Content over the Russian Federation in the First Quarter of 2023
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Abstract: The review is compiled on the basis of the results of operation of the total ozone (TO) monitoring system in the CIS and Baltic countries functioning in operational mode at Central Aerological Observatory (CAO). The monitoring system uses data from the national network equipped with M-124 filter ozonometers being under the methodological supervision of Main Geophysical Observatory. The quality of the functioning of the entire system is operationally controlled in CAO based on the OMI satellite equipment observations (NASA, USA). Basic TO observation data are generalized for each month of the first quarter of 2023 and for the first quarter. Data of routine observations of surface ozone values in the Moscow region are also presented.
PubDate: 2023-06-01
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- Radioecological Monitoring and Geoinformation Modeling of 137Cs
Distribution at the Landscape Level in the Bryansk Oblast-
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Abstract: The results of the landscape-radioecological monitoring and geoinformation modeling of the distribution of 137Cs in the Predpolesie landscapes (Vyshkov and Dubrovka sites), as well as in the Opolies (wide woodless plains) landscapes (Brakhlov and Kostitsa sites) in the Bryansk oblast are presented. The data on the radiation survey of arable lands in the Bryansk oblast carried out in 2017 at four test sites with different densities of 137Cs contamination are given. Based on the monitoring results, a data bank of the vertical distribution of 137Cs in the agrocenoses soils has been formed. The structure of the large-scale radioecological geoinformation system (RadGIS) comprises a digital terrain model based on the radar survey of the Earth topography from the SRTM shuttle. The second information layer contains the results of the aerial gamma (AG) survey performed in 1993 with a resolution of 100 m. A comparative analysis of the 2017 ground testing data with the results of the 1993 AG survey has allowed for assessment of the 137Cs radioactive contamination field transformation in various landscapes at four test sites. To assess the intensity of 137Cs lateral migration at the test sites, geoinformation modeling has been performed with the detection of surface flow streamlines.
PubDate: 2023-05-01
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