 Subjects -> SOCIOLOGY (Total: 553 journals)
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- Gender-based violence, religion and forced displacement: Protective and
risk factors|Introduction|Methods|Results|Discussion
Authors: Sandra Pertek, Karen Block, Lisa Goodson, Pakinam Hassan, Jeanine Hourani, Jenny Phillimore
Abstract: IntroductionThis paper examines the relationship between gender-based violence (GBV) and religion in a range of forced displacement contexts. While it has been acknowledged that religion frequently shapes experiences of GBV survivors, little is known about the influences of religion on GBV experiences in forced displacement and its potential role in strengthening interventions.MethodsUtilizing empirical evidence from 58 interviews from the SEREDA project with forced migrants in Sweden, UK, Turkey and Australia, we outline the interactions between religious resources and GBV in migrants' forced displacement experiences. We conceptualise religious resources as comprising religious ideas, religious practices, religious experience and religious organization.ResultsSurvivors talked about religion spontaneously when responding to questions relating to resilience, coping mechanisms, and risk factors. Religion acted as both a “protective” and “risk” factor for GBV experiences. Religious beliefs were assets in coping with GBV experiences, but also contributed to creating an environment in which violence was normalized, exposing women to further harm. Religious practices supported survivors emotionally to cope with GBV but also some practices posed risks. Religious organizations in many cases served as a lifeline for many displaced women, offering practical and emotional support, however religious leaders at times encouraged survivors to stay in abusive relationships. Religious experiences “empowered” and “disempowered” survivors across the processes of forced migration.DiscussionWe demonstrate the relevance and importance of acknowledging the role of religion in the experiences of GBV in forced displacement. Our analysis advances the understanding of religious resources as both protective and risk factors that affect forced migrants' experiences of GBV over time and place. We suggest a way forward for practitioners and researchers to account for the roles of religion in experiences of GBV and forced displacement, as opportunities and barriers to GBV prevention and response, and to work with religious leaders and local faith communities to strengthen protection of survivors.
PubDate: 2023-03-22T00:00:00Z
- Furious depletion—Conceptualizing artisan mining and extractivism
through gender, race, and environment
Authors: Muriel Côte
Abstract: A buoyant debate has grown in political ecology and agrarian studies around the concept of extractivism. It shines a light on forms of human and non-human depletion that fuel contemporary capitalism. Within this debate however, artisan mining has been hard to fit in. Artisan mining is a form of small scale mineral extraction that occupies around 45 million people around the world, and sustains the life of many more, especially in the Global South. Much research has looked at this expanding form of livelihood, particularly through the prism of its persistent informality, its labor organization, and its challenges to environmental and labor rights. However, it has not been well-theorized in relations to extractivism, sitting uncomfortably with dominant categories such as “the community”, “the company”, and “social movements” in political ecology analyses. The paper maps out entry points to studying the significance of artisan mining within dynamics of extractive capitalism by bringing in conversation political ecology scholarship on extractivism and research on artisan mining through a feminist lens. It develops the notions of “furious depletion”, attempting to capture the stark socioenvironmental injustice through which artisan mining forms an integral part of extractive capitalism, as both a victim and fuel thereof. The notion also emphasizes the significance of emotions - such as infuriation - in thinking through unjust human-environment relations for transformation. It focuses specifically on the ways relations of gender and race mediate human-environment relations, can help clarify an understanding of artisan mining in the depletion dynamics underlying extractivism. Given the acceleration of mining as part of digital and energy transitions, and the expansion of artisan mining, an engaged conceptualization of artisan mining may support struggles away from extractive capitalism for the decades to come.
PubDate: 2023-03-21T00:00:00Z
- Profiling sociodemographic attributes and extreme precipitation events as
mediators of climate-induced disasters in municipalities in the state of
Minas Gerais, Brazil|Introduction|Methods|Results|Discussion
Authors: Gilvan Guedes, Lara de Melo Barbosa Andrade, Cláudio Moises Santos e Silva, Kenya Valéria Micaela de Souza Noronha, Daniele Rodrigues, Albert Smith Feitosa Suassuna Martins
Abstract: IntroductionData indicate an increase in the number of natural disasters in Brazil, with a large share of these events occurring in the state of Minas Gerais. This study examines precipitation-related natural disasters recorded between 1991 and 2016 in Minas Gerais by identifying municipality profiles (encompassing the number of droughts, flash floods, and flooding events), their sensitivity to geophysical and extreme climatic exposure, and their relation to sociodemographic and infrastructure characteristics.MethodsWe combine climate data on seven extreme rainfall indices with elevation data for each municipal seat. We obtained data on droughts, flash floods, and floods from the Center for Engineering and Civil Defense Research and Studies. Population and socio-sanitary characteristics were obtained from the 2010 Brazilian Demographic Census. First, we modeled the climatic-geo-socio-sanitary data using latent class analysis as a pure latent cluster model (LCM) without covariates on seven extreme precipitation indices coupled with altitude data. Subsequently, the LCM was used to identify precipitation-related disaster clusters, including clusters from the 1S-LCM as an active covariate (2S-LCM). Finally, we utilized sociodemographic and infrastructure variables simultaneously with the clusters from the 2S-LCM on an LCM without active covariates (3S-LCM).ResultsOur results show an increase in precipitation-related disasters in Minas Gerais, with municipalities located in the northern part of the state being particularly affected. The state registered 5,553 natural disasters in this period, with precipitation-related disasters representing 94.5% of all natural disasters. The 1S-LCM identified four homoclimatic zones, encompassing a low-altitude dry zone, a relatively low-altitude intermediately wet zone, a relatively high-altitude intermediately wet zone, and a high-altitude wet zone. The 2S-LCM produced four precipitation-related disaster classes, denominated low risk, high risk of excess precipitation, intermediate risk of precipitation deficit and excess, and high risk of precipitation deficit.DiscussionCities with better infrastructure and sociodemographic profiles in semi-arid regions are more resilient to droughts. In richer areas, floods are still a concern where incomplete urbanization transitions may undermine resilience to these events as they increase in intensity with the advance of climate change.
PubDate: 2023-03-17T00:00:00Z
- Glacier tourism without ice: Envisioning future adaptations in a melting
world
Authors: Emmanuel Salim
Abstract: Climate change is causing profound changes in high mountain environments, including the rapid retreat of glaciers. The retreat and potential disappearance of Alpine glaciers during the twenty-first century raises questions about the future of glacier tourism sites. This perspective article reflects on these changes with a desk-based approach to suggest three possible ways glacier tourism can adapt to anticipated glacier loss. These three strategies include further developing geotourism, transforming last-chance tourism into “dark tourism,” and using virtual reality to “virtually” reconstruct disappearing glaciers. This paper draws on three cases to discuss the potential of these strategies. The first is the Aletsch Glacier, the largest in the Alps, which is listed as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. It has also been the subject of recent work on geotourism. The second case is Mer de Glace, the largest glacier at the Montenvers site in France. This glacier has been studied in the context of last-chance tourism. The final case is the Mortaretsch Glacier in Switzerland, which can be reached from Diavolezza and has not been the subject of many studies. However, this site is one of the first to incorporate virtual reality technology into the tourist experience of the glacier.
PubDate: 2023-03-16T00:00:00Z
- Why is farming important for rural livelihood security in the global
south' COVID-19 and changing rural livelihoods in Nepal's mid-hills
Authors: Dil Khatri, Kristina Marquardt, Harry Fischer, Sanjaya Khatri, Devanshi Singh, Dilli Prasad Poudel
Abstract: Over the last three decades, Nepal has experienced a rapid transition in rural livelihoods, from largely subsistence farming to more diversified off-farm employment and remittances. Despite this, subsistence farming continues to be a central part of rural production. Why does farming persist in the face of other, more remunerative, off-farm employment options' In this article we argue that subsistence food production continues to be important for rural livelihood security by providing food needs from farming, thus helping households to cope with uncertainties in off-farm employment and international labor migration. Taking the COVID-19 pandemic as an example of a high level of livelihood stress, the paper provides insights and further explanations on the logic of maintaining subsistence food production as part of rural households' livelihood security. Drawing on in-depth qualitative study, complemented with a quantitative survey from eight villages in rural Nepal, we examine the impact of the pandemic on farming and off-farm activities and explore the reasons behind peoples' choice of livelihood strategies and how these vary between different social groups. We show that there was only limited impact of the dramatic disruptions caused by the global pandemic on subsistence farming, however it brought substantial challenges for emerging semi-commercial farming and off-farm incomes, including both local and migratory wage labor. During the pandemic, people increased their reliance on locally produced food, and subsistence farming served as a critical safety net. Our analysis underscores the continued importance of subsistence production amidst contemporary shifts toward off-farm employment among rural households. We also find a growing interest in semi-commercial farming among farmers with better access to land who seek state support to develop such production. This suggests that it is important for agricultural development policy to recognize and support subsistence farming alongside emerging commercial agriculture production as an integral foundation of future farming and rural livelihood security.
PubDate: 2023-03-14T00:00:00Z
- Corrigendum: Assessment of water-migration-gender interconnections in
Ethiopia
Authors: Lisa Färber, Nidhi Nagabhatla, Ilse Ruyssen
PubDate: 2023-03-14T00:00:00Z
- The implications of warmer winters for ice climbing: A case study of the
Mount Washington Valley, New Hampshire, USA
Authors: Jimmy Voorhis, Graham McDowell, Elizabeth Burakowski, Taylor Luneau
Abstract: Ice climbing is important to the culture and economies of mountain communities worldwide. However, warming winters call into question the future of livelihoods associated with ice climbing. In response, this case study presents observed and simulated ice climbing conditions in the Mount Washington Valley, New Hampshire, USA, as well as local climbing guide's experiences of and responses to these changes. First, variability in ice conditions were evaluated by classifying and summarizing ice characteristics depicted in a 20-year collection of conditions reports (n = 372) including photos and written observations for a benchmark ice climb (Standard Route). Next, climate model ensembles were used to simulate probable changes in future ice season lengths according to intermediate and high climate forcing scenarios (i.e., RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5). Finally, a survey and focus group were conducted with Mount Washington Valley ice climbing guides to examine observations and lived experiences of warming winters. This study, which is the first formal assessment of the implications of warming winters for ice climbing, reveals significant effects of climate change for current and projected ice climbing conditions as well as marked, and often differentiated, vulnerability and adaptability to these changes amongst climbing guides. The unique mixed-methods approach used is applicable in other locales where climate change is impacting ice climbing activities and associated livelihoods.
PubDate: 2023-03-02T00:00:00Z
- Family reunion policy for resettled refugees: Governance, challenges and
impacts
Authors: Jenny Phillimore, Gabriella D'Avino, Veronika Strain-Fajth, Anna Papoutsi, Paladia Ziss
Abstract: The past decade has seen renewed efforts to establish resettlement as a durable solution for refugees, both as a protection tool and a mechanism to equitably distribute them among countries. Although the right to a family life is widely recognised as a fundamental human right, whether refugees can arrive with their family or be reunited with family once resettled varies across receiving countries. Little is known about family reunion policies in countries leading the resettlement efforts, and about the impact of these policies on the lives and experiences of resettled refugees. This paper addresses this gap though a systematic scoping review of academic and policy literature on family reunion policies for resettlement refugees, and on the impact of such policy on their lives. Based on a review of 42 papers published between 2010 and 2021, we outline the policies implemented in different receiving countries to enable resettled refugees to reunite with family, documenting at the same time the challenges refugees face in the process, as well as the impact of policy on their experiences. The findings evidence a tension between the refugees' own understanding of family and definitions of family in policy in receiving countries, which often results in family separation or reconfiguration. Additionally, high costs and other administrative barriers, as well as long waiting times associated with family reunification, lead to delayed or denied reunion, having detrimental effects on resettled refugees' well-being in the present and on their future prospects.
PubDate: 2023-02-28T00:00:00Z
- Editorial: Emerging plurality of life: Assessing the questions, challenges
and opportunities
Authors: Jessica Abbott, Erik Persson, Olaf Witkowski
PubDate: 2023-02-28T00:00:00Z
- ICT applications and the COVID-19 pandemic: Impacts on the individual's
digital data, digital privacy, and data protection
Authors: Ali Cheshmehzangi, Zhaohui Su, Tong Zou
Abstract: A prominent move amid the COVID-19 pandemic is related to the wide use of ICT applications for various reasons. Such services are context-specific and sector-specific, but we see transformative directions leading to digital data collection, monitory, and management platforms. For now, these have been beneficial to evaluate trends and issues related to the pandemic. Some aggregated data could also help decision-making processes, which are helpful to contain such disruptive events. However, the main concern is the use of the individual's data and information, which means we may shift to micro-management and eventual controlling tools that could harm data protection processes. Undoubtedly, the use of ICTs during the COVID-19 pandemic has been primarily positive at multiple scales, but we have to evaluate the pros and cons before accepting all data collection processes. Such ICT-mediated platforms and/or applications must remain beneficial to all and avoid breaching the individual's data protection. This short communication paper first introduces ICT applications during the COVID-19 before providing an overview and further analysis of the situation of the ICT applications. Afterward, it discusses issues of data privacy, data collection, and data use, which are the backbone of ICT applications. The discussions highlight that future research in this area could look into associated issues related to digital privacy, data-driven approaches, and data protection regulations.
PubDate: 2023-02-23T00:00:00Z
- Enhancing structural balance theory and measurement to analyze signed
digraphs of real-world social networks
Authors: Ly Dinh, Rezvaneh Rezapour, Lan Jiang, Jana Diesner
Abstract: Structural balance theory assumes triads in networks to gravitate toward stable configurations. The theory has been verified for undirected graphs. Since real-world social networks are often directed, we introduce a novel method for considering both transitivity and sign consistency for calculating balance in signed digraphs. We test our approach on graphs that we constructed by using different methods for identifying edge signs: natural language processing to infer signs from underlying text data, and self-reported survey data. Our results show that for various social contexts and edge sign detection methods, balance is moderately high, ranging from 61% to 96%. This paper makes three contributions: First, we extend the theory of structural balance to include signed digraphs where both transitivity and sign consistency are required and considered for calculating balance in triads with signed and directed edges. This improves the modeling of communication networks and other organizational networks where ties might be directed. Second, we show how to construct and analyze email networks from unstructured text data, using natural language processing methods to infer two different types of edge signs from emails authored by nodes. Third, we empirically assess balance in two different and contemporary contexts, namely remote communication in two business organizations, and team-based interactions in a virtual environment. We find empirical evidence in support of structural balance theory across these contexts.
PubDate: 2023-02-16T00:00:00Z
- Origin-country gender norms, individual work experience, and employment
among immigrant women in Sweden
Authors: Andrey Tibajev, Olav Nygård
Abstract: Many Western countries are built on a dual-earner model and have high levels of female labor force participation. Increasing the labor market activity of immigrant women is therefore seen as a key part of immigrant integration. However, female labor force participation (LFP) differs substantially between countries, reflecting differences in work-related gender norms that can continue to influence preferences and behaviors after migration. In this study, we investigate how origin-country gender norms and migrant selection interact to produce post-migration outcomes. Our data shows that immigrant women in Sweden have a higher level of pre-migration work experience than expected based on origin-country female LFP, indicating positive selection. Furthermore, the association between origin-country LFP and post-migration employment varied with work experience. For women without origin-country work experience, origin-country LFP was positively associated with employment in Sweden. For women with origin-country work experience, origin-country LFP however was not associated with higher likelihood of employment in Sweden. Though our focus is on immigrant women, we also include immigrant men in our analysis to test our prediction more thoroughly. For men without origin-country work experience, origin-country LFP was negatively associated with employment in Sweden, while we found no association for men with origin-country work experience. Our results show that migrant selection is a crucial factor in understanding the relationship between origin-country LFP and post-migration labor market outcomes, and that these patterns vary with gender. Policy interventions targeting immigrant women from countries with low female LFP should therefore not assume that women arrive socialized with gender-norms that hinder labor market activity.
PubDate: 2023-02-16T00:00:00Z
- A tutorial for modeling the evolution of network dynamics for multiple
groups
Authors: Andrew Pilny, Luisa Ruge-Jones, Marshall Scott Poole
Abstract: Researchers have been increasingly taking advantage of the stochastic actor-oriented modeling framework as a method to analyze the evolution of network ties. Although the framework has proven to be a useful method to model longitudinal network data, it is designed to analyze a sample of one bounded network. For group and team researchers, this can be a significant limitation because such researchers often collect data on more than one team. This paper presents a nontechnical and hands-on introduction for a meta-level technique for stochastic actor-oriented models in RSIENA where researchers can simultaneously analyze network drivers from multiple samples of teams and groups. Moreover, we follow up with a multilevel Bayesian version of the model when it is appropriate. We also provide a framework for researchers to understand what types of research questions and theories could be examined and tested.
PubDate: 2023-01-20T00:00:00Z
- The politics of statelessness, refugeehood, and humanitarianism of the
Rohingyas
Authors: Kaveri, S. Irudaya Rajan
Abstract: Undoubtedly, the Rohingya crisis has been one among the most discussed issue in the last few years. The political exclusion and persecution revolve around the fault lines of modern nation-states built along the ethno-religious lines, making them the most persecuted minority in the world. Especially, post-global denunciation of the military crackdown in August 2017 and the United Nations accusing the country of “ethnic cleansing and genocide” led to the massive exodus of people to the neighboring countries and beyond. Yet, the existing political and protection space for stateless Rohingya refugees is extremely volatile due to the absence of legal mechanisms, un-documentedness, and rising security concerns globally often criminalizing them as illegal migrants/immigrants or threats to national security. Forcing them to live under continuous threat of detention, deportation, and forced relocation further tarnishes their identity between the man and the citizen, dumping them into a socio-legal limbo. Based on the ethnographic inquiry conducted among stateless Rohingya refugees living in semi-urban ghettoes of India- Delhi, Mewat, Hyderabad and Jammu, the article looks into the historical and political trajectory of exclusion, resistance, and counter-resilience of stateless Rohingya refugees fleeing persecution in Myanmar along exploring their refracted and displaced realities and complexities of “life” in asylum and protracted refugees in India. And, the responses made by national and international agencies to the crisis. In doing so, it provides a grim insight into the inadequate, inconsistent and highly uncoordinated national and international response to care and protection and aid politics that have contributed to the collective failure in addressing the crisis. Thereby, the study attempts to bring forth the wider debate upon issues of state and statehood, rights and humanitarianism within the nation-state paradigm.
PubDate: 2023-01-11T00:00:00Z
- Heterogeneity in making: Findings, approaches, and reflections on
inclusivity in making and makerspaces
Authors: Verena Fuchsberger, Dorothé Smit, Nathalia Campreguer França, Cornelia Gerdenitsch, Olivia Jaques, Joanna Kowolik, Georg Regal, Emma Roodbergen
Abstract: Making, that is, the hobbyist and technologically based creation of things, has been associated with many benefits. It is considered to contribute to the development of skills and to enable participation in innovation, and even democracy. At the same time, institutionalized making (in makerspaces, FabLabs) is known to be exclusive as members of such spaces are very often young well-educated white men. This is in contradiction to the promise and self-understanding of the maker culture, which aims to be open and inclusive. In the past 3 years, we, a group of researchers, makers, fablab employees, hackerspace operators, and artists, have engaged with such disparities in a collaborative research project. We inquired into barriers that women* and other underrepresented groups experience, created visions to change the status quo, and implemented smaller and bigger interventions in different spaces (fablab, hackerspace, and makers' homes) to explore their impacts. This article discusses findings, approaches, and foremost, reflections and experiences. In addition to presenting selected insights from our explorations, we pay particular attention to the tensions and challenges that we encountered during our research endeavors. Many of those are rooted in our own roles, perspectives, and backgrounds, which are multiple, sometimes conflicting, troubling, frustrating, yet enriching, and rewarding. In the form of a written conversation among project members, we present those different viewpoints, connect them where possible, and oppose them where needed. We conclude by articulating tensions that we see as characteristic regarding making and the research around it.
PubDate: 2023-01-06T00:00:00Z
- Explaining recently arrived refugees' labor market participation: The role
of policy characteristics among Syrians in the Netherlands
Authors: Roxy Elisabeth Christina Damen, Willem Huijnk, Jaco Dagevos
Abstract: Various studies have indicated the disadvantaged positions of refugees on the labor market and studied various characteristics explaining this. Yet, little is known about the impact of settlement policy characteristics on recent arrivals' labor market participation, despite them being heavily subject to such policies. We argue such policies, next to individual characteristics, can serve as a means to gather resources relevant to the host country and consequently labor market positions, but can also serve as a post-migration stressor obstructing this. Using the Netherlands as an example, we contribute to studies on the refugee gap and provide insight into key policy characteristics explaining recently arrived refugees' (finding) employment. We use two-wave panel data of 2,379 recently arrived Syrian refugees in the Netherlands, including data on key policy and individual characteristics combined with administrative data. Employing a hybrid model, we show both within- and between-person variation. Results indicate policy matters: short and active stays in reception, complying with the civic integration obligation and a lower unemployment rate in the region refugees are randomly assigned to are beneficial for Syrians' (finding) employment. Like for other migrants, various forms of individual human capital also play a role.
PubDate: 2023-01-06T00:00:00Z
- Editorial: Trust, safety and passenger experience in Intelligent Mobility
Authors: Genovefa Kefalidou, Stavros Tasoudis
PubDate: 2023-01-05T00:00:00Z
- Ethnic discrimination in neighborhood ingroup-outgroup encounters:
Reducing threat-perception and increasing fairness as possible solutions
Authors: Julia Kleinewiese
Abstract: Research on discriminating behavior against ethnic minorities in everyday situations is still a rather under-researched field, since most prior research on ethnic discrimination focuses on housing markets, job markets, criminal justice, institutions or discourses. This article contributes toward filling the research-gap on everyday discrimination by bringing together prior research from sociology and social-psychology, including threat and competition theories from integration research, social identity theory, particularism-universalism theory and experimental findings on fairness norms. It conceptually advances the field by combining them into an integrated interdisciplinary approach that can examine discriminating behavior in everyday situations. This approach studies the dynamics of ingroup-outgroup relationships, fairness norms and threat in regard to negative behavior toward others (e.g., a neighbor). In particular, it focusses on the dynamics under which negative behavior is more likely toward an ethnic outgroup-person than an ingroup-person (i.e., discriminating behavior). To scrutinize the expectations derived within this framework, a factorial survey experiment was designed, implemented and analyzed (by means of multilevel mixed-effects linear regressions and average marginal effects). The survey experiment presents a hypothetical scenario between two neighbors in order to measure the effects and dynamics of ingroup-outgroup relationships, fairness norms and threat on behavior. While no significant outgroup-effect can be found in the general analysis of the main effects, more in-depth analyses show an interplay of situational cues: Outgroup-discriminating behavior becomes significantly more likely when the “actor” has low general fairness norms and/or when threat-level in a situation is low. These results foreground the importance of interdisciplinary in-depth analyses of dynamics for understanding the conditions under which discriminating behavior takes place in everyday situations—and for deriving measures that can reduce discrimination.
PubDate: 2022-12-16T00:00:00Z
- Refugees' time investments—Differences in the time use of refugees,
other immigrants, and natives in Germany|Introduction|Methods|Results and
discussion
Authors: Jana Kuhlemann
Abstract: IntroductionSince the 2015/16 refugee influx to Germany and other European countries, these host societies have been challenged with the integration of culturally distant refugees. These recent arrivals can strategically invest their time in activities promoting their integration, thereby rendering time use as a channel of integration. Refugees are a vulnerable group that differs from other immigrants with respect to their migration motivation, experience, and conditions in the receiving countries. Accordingly, refugees might also differ from other immigrants with respect to their time use. This might play a role in explaining differences in refugees' and other immigrants' integration outcomes.MethodsUsing a cluster analysis approach, this contribution (1) descriptively examines whether and to what extent refugees' time use differs from that of other immigrants and the host-country population in Germany and (2) examines the role of refugees' legal status for their time use. The study examines time allocation to different activities of refugees, other first-generation immigrants, and native Germans, using data collected from 2016 to 2019 of the German Socio-Economic Panel, including the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees and the IAB-SOEP Migration Sample.Results and discussionResults from (1) the cluster analysis approach show different clusters of time use patterns for the three population groups of refugees, other immigrants, and natives. For native Germans and other immigrants, the dominant time use cluster is characterized by full-time investment in employment activities. For refugees, the dominant time use pattern is characterized by low overall invested hours to the measured activities (low activity cluster). In contrast to the other two groups, a cluster of refugees predominantly allocating their time to employment activities is not found. Pooled analyses (2) of the role of refugees' legal status show some evidence that those who have a form of protection status, in comparison to those who have asylum seeker status, have a lower probability to display childcare- and household-related activities than to report low activity. However, fixed effects analyses show that refugees receiving a positive decision on their asylum application do not change with respect to their time use patterns.
PubDate: 2022-12-16T00:00:00Z
- Trends in forced displacement due to conflict from 2009 to 2021: A decade
forecast for effective humanitarian emergency response system in Nigeria
Authors: Chidubem Fidelis Izuakor
Abstract: Internal displacement figures in conflicted affected regions of Nigeria is a significant problem that poses a risk of humanitarian crises accounted for by poor and a neglected emergency response system. The present study analyzed annual conflict/violence-induced internal displacement trends in Nigeria from 2009 to 2021 and predicted the annual figures for the next 10 years. Using the R software, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) was adopted for analysis, while model (0, 0, 1) was chosen as the best fitting model with the minimum AIC coefficient. From the ARIMA forecast, 2022 showed a 4% decrease in displacement figures, further decreasing by 7% in 2023. The figures remained constant for the rest of the forecasted years, showing neither increases nor decreases from 2024 to 2031. Close observation revealed the overlapping trends between increased annual internal displacements and pre-election periods in Nigeria. This study will help inform humanitarian bodies on the significance of early detection and preparation for future displacement crises while considering the cycle of ethno-religious-related electoral violence. Furthermore, future studies should compare the accuracy of ARIMA with other models to ensure its validity using a similar sample.
PubDate: 2022-12-09T00:00:00Z
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