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Abstract: This paper quantifies the economic benefits of joining the USA. Adapting extant static synthetic control models into a dynamic model similar to Arellano and Bond (Rev Econ Stud 58(2):277–297, 1991), we are able to construct the counterfactual growth paths of Texas, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and Nevada had they not joined the USA. We show that the real growth path outperforms the counterfactuals substantially in all cases. In the same way, we construct counterfactual growth paths of Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Philippines and Greenland in the scenario where they joined the USA at times in history where this might have been a (remote) possibility. We find counterfactual growth to be substantially higher than the actual growth. Having established the positive economic effects of US membership, we subsequently assess the sources of this added growth, distinguishing between a class of explanations related to internal market access and a class of explanations related to institutional quality. Using a large number of determinants of institutional quality, we find that the institutional quality of the USA as a whole matches the quality predicted for New England most closely. This suggests that upon accession, states imported the institutional quality of New England, which was typically superior to what they would have likely developed by themselves. We show that this institutional bonus accounts for the bulk of the growth benefits of US accession. While we warn against interpreting our results as evidence for the superiority of US culture or institutions in any way, our empirical findings indicate large historical growth and institutional benefits of US statehood. PubDate: 2022-05-10
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Abstract: A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11698-021-00233-6 PubDate: 2022-05-01
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Abstract: In the late ninth century, rural settlement, agriculture, and urbanization all collapsed in southern Mesopotamia. We first document this collapse using newly digitized archaeological data. We then present a model of hydraulic society that highlights the collapse of state capacity as a proximate cause of the collapse of the economy and a shortened horizon of the ruler as a potential driver of the timing of the collapse. Using cross sections of tax collection data for 27 districts in southern Mesopotamia in 812, 846, and 918, we verify that the proximate cause of the crisis was the collapse in state capacity, which meant that the state no longer maintained the irrigation system. A particularly destructive succession struggle, shortening the investment horizon of rulers, determined the timing of the crisis. PubDate: 2022-05-01
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Abstract: In this article, I investigate the long run relationship between education, industrialisation and growth. I evaluate the impact of primary schooling on the economic development of France between the 1830s and 1914. To do so, I rely on very precise data on education at the level of municipalities. I instrument educational achievements, namely enrolment rates and schooling years, by the proximity of municipalities to printing presses established before 1500. This method returns a positive impact of an early high educational achievement on growth during the nineteenth century. This indicates a positive effect of the acquisition of basic education and elementary skills on the development of French municipalities. Therefore, the accumulation of human capital within primary schools contributed positively to growth during the nineteenth century and up to World War I, the core period of modernisation and industrialisation in France. PubDate: 2022-05-01
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Abstract: Research in economic history has challenged a strict Malthusian depiction of preindustrial European economies, highlighting ‘efflorescences’, ‘Smithian’ and ‘growth recurring’ episodes. Do these defining concepts apply to preindustrial Spain' In this paper, we carry out new yearly estimates of output and population for over half-a millennium. We find that our estimates of agricultural output on the basis of tithes largely confirm those obtained using a demand function approach supporting its use in the absence of direct information. We show that, although levels of output per head in the early nineteenth century were not much different from those in the eve of the Black Death, preindustrial Spain was far from stagnant. Phases of simultaneous per capita output and population expansion and shrinkage alternated, lending support to the recurring growth and frontier economy hypotheses. A long phase of sustained growth and lower inequality collapsed in the 1570s and gave way to another one of sluggish growth and higher inequality. As an alternative to a Malthusian interpretation, we hypothesise that, in preindustrial Spain, growth and decline are largely explained by individual and collective economic decisions. PubDate: 2022-05-01
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Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between school provision and the political power of the president in Uruguay between 1914 and 1954. The empirical analysis relies on fixed effects panel estimations based on newly compiled information about the partisan orientation of legislative members, electoral competition and schooling diffusion at the department-level. Ceteris paribus, I find an association between school provision and the need of government to capture votes or to obtain further legislative support. The resource allocation initially benefitted government’s core voter departments and shifted to favor non-loyal districts as an answer to the increasing intra-party political conflicts. Against the traditional historical narrative, the results point out to an influence of political interests on the diffusion of mass schooling and suggest the use of school provision as a pork barrel good over the period. PubDate: 2022-05-01
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Abstract: At the turn of the twentieth century, Norway, like many other countries, experienced a decrease in mortality and a substantial increase in the number of health personnel. In order to assess how these changes were connected, we investigate the relationship between health personnel and mortality using data at the medical district level ( \(N=106\) ) covering a period of 34 years. We find a large and robust effect of midwives on reduced maternal mortality in rural areas, but no effect in urban areas. No clear effect is found for other types of health personnel or on infant mortality. The results demonstrate the important role played by public health investments during the period. PubDate: 2022-05-01
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Abstract: If historical shocks influence educational outcomes, how long does the effect last, and does it differ among ethnic groups' This study answers these questions by exploiting the historical experiment of partition—that is the splitting of the British Raj into India and Pakistan—and by presenting a theoretical model that explains the trade-offs such a shock uncovers for different ethnic groups that have to decide between assimilation through education and maintaining their ethnic specificity. We use different rounds of Pakistan social and living standard measurement (PSLM) survey and analyze the educational outcomes of the grandchildren of partition (i.e., whose grandparents were born during the partition). We show that the scar from partition is long-lasting, as the present generation is still living under its influence. More importantly, our results reveal the different adaptation strategies of ethnic and cultural groups in the long run. PubDate: 2022-05-01
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Abstract: Abstract The scale of the rise in personal wealth following the Black Death calls the life-cycle hypothesis of consumption into consideration. Based on price level evidence, this paper shows for the first time that the wealth effect of the Black Death on economic activity continued in England for generations, up to 1450. Indeed, in the absence of consideration of the wealth effect, other influences on the price level do not even appear in the econometric analysis. The shift in tastes toward higher quality goods, luxuries and imports stemming from the per capita windfall for the survivors in the mid-fourteenth century plays a substantial part in the analysis. So does England’s little influence on the relative prices of its imports relative to home goods. The separate effects of coinage, population, trade, wages and annual number of days worked for wages on the price level all also receive major attention and new results follow for adjustment in the labor market. PubDate: 2022-03-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11698-022-00244-x
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Abstract: Abstract Under income-differentiated mortality, poverty measures suffer from a selection bias: they do not count the missing poor (i.e., persons who would have been counted as poor provided they did not die prematurely). The Pre-Industrial period being characterized by an evolutionary advantage (i.e., a higher number of surviving children per household) of the non-poor over the poor, one may expect that the missing poor bias is substantial during that period. This paper quantifies the missing poor bias in Pre-Industrial societies, by computing the hypothetical headcount poverty rates that would have prevailed provided the non-poor did not benefit from an evolutionary advantage over the poor. Using data on Pre-Industrial England and France, we show that the sign and size of the missing poor bias are sensitive to the degree of downward social mobility. PubDate: 2022-03-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11698-022-00243-y
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Abstract: Abstract This article analyses the integration of economic history into economics using a unique dataset containing 11,143 articles written by 919 economic historians and published between 1980 and 2019 in leading journals; we also analyzed the authors’ biographical information. Using a probit regression, we find that since 1980, economic historians have increased their likelihood of publishing in Economics or Finance Journals (EFJs) by 12 points. This integration is more marked in North America than in Europe because North American economic historians are more likely to be trained in the discipline of economics. In contrast, a significant share of scholars in Europe are trained in the discipline of economic history. Network visualizations confirm these regional differences: citations to EFJs are much more central in North American scholars’ work. Our findings support Robert Margo’s claim that economic history is currently integrated into economics more often in publications in North America than in Europe. PubDate: 2022-02-15 DOI: 10.1007/s11698-022-00245-w
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Abstract: Abstract A recent stream of literature argues that economic history is expanding its aim of looking for the historical roots of current outcomes (persistence studies) and that it is increasingly integrating with economics. This paper tests these claims with a new database of about 2500 articles published from 2001 to 2018 in the top five economic history journals and in eight leading economics journals. Our results do not confirm this optimistic narrative. Despite a growing interest by economists, economic history and a fortiori persistence studies are still marginal in economics journals. Furthermore, substantial differences between articles in the two groups of outlets are visible. Only a few authors have published in both economics and economic history journals. Publishing in the top five economics journals yields more citations than in top-field journals, but this is not necessarily true for other prestigious economics journals. PubDate: 2022-02-04 DOI: 10.1007/s11698-022-00242-z
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Abstract: Abstract This paper studies the effect of British slave emancipation on the sugar industry in the north-east of Brazil. Combining pre-existing annual data on Brazilian exports and British, French, American and Hanseatic imports with a new monthly series of imports to Liverpool and New York, I argue that the British policies following emancipation were related to a rapid increase in the demand for Brazilian sugar in the British market towards the end of mid-century. The results of an interrupted time series analysis show that the effect was particularly large following the end of apprenticeship in 1838 and the passage of the Sugar Act in 1846. I estimate that over the period 1827–1853, slave emancipation increased Brazil’s market share by around five per cent, which corresponded to between 15 and 28 per cent of the volume of Brazilian exports. A comparison with markets unaffected by such policy treatments demonstrates that these trends were confined to the British market. PubDate: 2022-01-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11698-021-00241-6
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Abstract: Abstract The rising trend in the capital-output ratio and the productivity slowdown have put capital back in the economist’s agenda. This paper contributes to the debate by providing new estimates of net capital stock and services for Spain over the last 170 years. The net capital (wealth) stock-GDP ratio rose over time and doubled in the last half a century. Capital services grew fast over the long run accelerating in the 1920s and from the mid-1950s to 2007. Until 1975, its acceleration was helped by an increase in the “quality” of capital. Capital deepening proceeded steadily, accelerating during 1955–1985 and slowing down thereafter for expanding sectors attracted less investment-specific technological progress. Although capital consumption rose over time, the rate of depreciation fell from 1970 to 2007 as new capital goods’ relative prices declined due to embodied technological change. PubDate: 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11698-020-00221-2
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Abstract: Abstract Grain was the most important food source in early modern Europe (c. 1500–1800), and its price influenced the entire economy. The extent to which climate variability determined grain price variations remains contested, and claims of solar cycle influences on prices are disputed. We thoroughly reassess these questions, within a framework of comprehensive statistical analysis, by employing an unprecedentedly large grain price data set together with state-of-the-art palaeoclimate reconstructions and long meteorological series. A highly significant negative grain price–temperature relationship (i.e. colder = high prices and vice versa) is found across Europe. This association increases at larger spatial and temporal scales and reaches a correlation of \(-\,0.41\) considering the European grain price average and previous year June–August temperatures at annual resolution, and of \(-\,0.63\) at decadal timescales. This strong relationship is of episodic rather than periodic (cyclic) nature. Only weak and spatially inconsistent signals of hydroclimate (precipitation and drought), and no meaningful association with solar variations, are detected in the grain prices. The significant and persistent temperature effects on grain prices imply that this now rapidly changing climate element has been a more important factor in European economic history, even in southern Europe, than commonly acknowledged. PubDate: 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11698-021-00224-7
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Abstract: Abstract The abundance of domesticable mammals in Eurasia facilitated its early transition from hunter–gatherer to agricultural economies, with dramatic consequences for human history. This paper empirically examines the origins of these biogeographical advantages and finds that the extinction of large mammals during the past 100,000 years was a decisive force in the evolution of mammal domestication. In Eurasia’s domestication cradles, humans had sufficient incentives to continually practice herd management as a hunting strategy to prevent the depletion of their vital common resources. These strategies changed some targeted species and made them more receptive to human domination. The absence of these conditions (human incentive and animal receptivity) in other regions resulted in the paucity of domestication. The paper presents the most comprehensive empirical analysis of the origins of animal domestication and the roots of global inequalities to date and unearths a critical channel for the influence of deep history on comparative economic development. PubDate: 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11698-021-00222-9
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Abstract: Abstract The abnormally high sex ratio at birth (SRB) is a demographic outcome that appears in several countries in Asia and Africa and results from sex-based discrimination. Whether or not neonatal discrimination was a widespread response to socioeconomic demands during the demographic transition in Europe remains an open question. To address this concern, this paper exploits the exogenous increase in the cost of child rearing caused by the outbreak of the Spanish Civil War (1936–1939). Using random discontinuity techniques, a sharp and statistically significant increase in SRB appears with the war. This finding provides an opportunity to examine a challenging concern: whether neonatal discrimination fosters or reduces the discrimination suffered by girls in childhood. To examine the multiplier effects of discrimination, the paper investigates the potential role that women’s bargaining power could play in preventing the functioning of the transmission mechanism. To that end, the paper exploits historical geographical differences in women’s bargaining power that were inherent to the predominant kinship system in Spanish provinces (stem vs. nuclear). The results show that an increase of one standard deviation in the interaction term between gender and SRB led, on average, to a 9% points increase in under-five mortality in nuclear provinces. However, this positive relationship is not found in stem provinces, where women had greater bargaining power. The paper points out that policies aimed at creating a more egalitarian legal framework may fail if they are not accompanied by actions aimed at affecting beliefs and preferences for equality in society. PubDate: 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11698-021-00225-6
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Abstract: Abstract This paper adds to a growing literature that charts and explains inequality levels in pre-industrial societies. On the basis of a wide variety of primary documents, the degree of inequality is estimated for 32 different residencies, the largest administrative units and comparable to present-day provinces, of late colonial Indonesia. Four different measures of inequality (the Gini, Theil, Inequality Extraction Rate and Top Income Rate) are employed that show consistent results. Variation in inequality levels across late colonial Indonesia is very large, and some residencies have much higher levels of inequality (with, for example, Ginis above 60) than others (with Ginis below 30). This suggests that even within a single colony, levels of inequality may vary substantially and this puts some doubts on the representativeness of using a single number to capture the level of inequality in a large economy. In order to explain the variation across residencies and over time, this paper investigates the role of exports and plantations, so frequently mentioned in the literature. It is shown that both explain a part of the variation in levels of inequality across colonial Indonesia, but that only the rise of plantations can explain changes in inequality levels over time. This points to the importance of the institutional context in which global export trade takes place for the rise of inequality. PubDate: 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11698-020-00220-3
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