Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles) ISSN (Print) 1610-241X - ISSN (Online) 1612-7501 Published by Oxford University Press[419 journals]
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Authors:Koebe J; Marcus J. Pages: 1 - 45 Abstract: AbstractIndividuals typically traverse several life phases before forming a family. We analyze whether changing the duration of one of these phases, the education phase, affects the timing of marriage and childbearing. For this purpose, we exploit the introduction of short school years (SSYs) in Germany in 1966–1967, which compressed the education phase without affecting the curriculum. Based on difference-in-differences regressions and German Micro Census data, we find that SSY exposure affects the timing of marriage for individuals in all secondary school tracks and shifts forward the birth of the first child mainly for academic-track graduates. This highlights that education policies might not only affect family formation through human capital accumulation, but also through changing the duration of earlier life phases. This is important as not only age at marriage and first birth increases in many countries, but also the duration of the education phase. (JEL codes: I26, J12, J13, J24) PubDate: Fri, 21 Jan 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifab014 Issue No:Vol. 68, No. 1 (2022)
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Authors:Portilla J; Rodríguez G, Castillo B. P. Pages: 98 - 126 Abstract: AbstractThis article discusses the evolution of monetary policy (MP) in Peru in 1996Q1–2019Q4 using a mixture innovation time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (VAR) model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) as proposed by Koop, Leon-Gonzales and Strachan. The main empirical results are: (i) the VAR coefficients and volatilities change more gradually than the contemporaneous coefficients over time; (ii) the volatility of MP shocks was higher under the pre-Inflation Targeting (IT) regime; (iii) a surprise increase in the interest rate produces gross domestic product (GDP) growth falls and reduces inflation in the long run; (iv) the interest rate reacts more quickly to aggregate supply shocks than to aggregate demand shocks; (v) MP shocks explain a high percentage of domestic variables behavior under the pre-IT regime but their contribution decreases under the IT regime. Overall, these results show that MP has contributed in Peru to lower macroeconomic volatility by (i) reducing average long-term inflation, (ii) increasing the response of GDP growth rate to interest rate, and (iii) by becoming more predictable. (JEL codes: C11, C32, and E52). PubDate: Tue, 11 Jan 2022 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifab013 Issue No:Vol. 68, No. 1 (2022)
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Authors:Buyl P; Roggeman A, Verleyen I. Pages: 46 - 72 Abstract: AbstractUsing confidential tax return data, we provide a unique research setting in which the Belgian notional interest deduction (NID) is replaced by the Allowance for Growth and Investment (AGI) as it is proposed by the European Commission. Our results show that the AGI would be a more viable option from a budgetary view. From a company view, however, introducing an AGI system would increase the probability of a higher effective tax rate (ETR). Especially large companies would be harmed as they would face a 7.6 percentage point higher probability of an ETR increase compared with SMEs. Furthermore, we find that there is a positive relationship between the equity ratio and the increased ETR, which is stronger for large firms compared to SMEs. This is in line with previous studies stating that large firms adjusted more aggressively to the NID by increasing their equity ratio more heavily than SMEs. However, large firms still face an ETR that is on average 10.4 percentage points lower compared with SMEs, indicating that the AGI is insufficient to undo the unequal level playing field between large and small companies. (JEL codes: H21, G32, H25, K34). PubDate: Sat, 21 Aug 2021 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifab007 Issue No:Vol. 68, No. 1 (2021)
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Authors:Burghof H; Gehrung M. Pages: 73 - 97 Abstract: AbstractFinancial integration is seen as a major driver of economic growth and wealth. Its effects on income inequality have been analyzed for the bank branch deregulation in the USA and foreign bank entry in India. Another prominent example of financial integration and liberalization, so far, has been ignored: the introduction and progression of the European Single Market. By using a difference-in-difference design, we investigate the effects of the Single Banking License introduced in 1993 on economic growth and several inequality measures. This directive abolished any cross-country restrictions on banks in EU Member States and allowed them to freely branch into other Member States. This constitutes a fundamental change in the competitive environment of financial markets. We show that the European Single Financial Market positively influenced economic growth across a variety of subsamples of EU Member States. The effects on income inequality indicate that inequality across states was reduced. Additional regressions with the unemployment rate and top and bottom 20% income shares support this finding and show a reduction of unemployment in previously less developed countries accompanied by an increase in the bottom income shares across all Member States. (JEL codes: D63, E44, G21 and O11). PubDate: Mon, 20 Dec 2021 00:00:00 GMT DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifab012 Issue No:Vol. 68, No. 1 (2021)
Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
[419 journals]
