Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Abstract: Abstract The economic environment is now very different from that which reigned since the global financial crisis. The long era of low inflation, suppressed volatility, and easy financial conditions is ending. It is being replaced by more challenging macro dynamics in which supply shocks are as important as demand shocks, increasing inflation, volatility, interest rates and risk premia. The reaction functions of central banks must adjust accordingly. Climate policy is becoming the third pillar of macro-economic policy. Its conduct will directly impact the efficacy of fiscal and monetary policies, and its interactions with the financial system will heavily influence the pace of job and wealth creation. Estimates suggest that, over the balance of this century, unaddressed climate change could cause the equivalent of a decade of no economic growth, with these losses staying lost. The transition to a net carbon zero economy consistent with limiting temperature rises to 1.5 degrees is forecast to avoid those losses but to put upward pressure on inflation during the initial decade of the transition, until the lower levelized costs of clean energy weigh on prices thereafter. The coordination of monetary, fiscal and climate policies can be expected to improve welfare. A net zero transition guided by credible and predictable policies will accelerate private sector investments, smooth inflationary pressures and improve growth. High and volatile inflation at least can be vanquished. It need not be a permanent condition. The same cannot be said of unaddressed climate change. PubDate: 2022-05-11
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Abstract: Abstract This note argues that the Fed does not have much effect on inflation expectations and that its effect on aggregate demand, and thus on inflation, is modest. Econometric results suggest that a short term interest rate increase of 1.0 percentage point results in a decrease in inflation of 0.43 percentage points after five quarters. The unemployment rate is 0.17 percentage points higher. Therefore, lowering inflation by 2 percentage points, if this is needed, requires about a 4 to 5 percentage point increase in the interest rate, with the full effect taking about five quarters. PubDate: 2022-04-06
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Abstract: Abstract The data demands during the pandemic heightened the need to blend information from numerous sources to get a more timely and granular picture of economic developments. Ongoing efforts include the Chicago Fed’s weekly retail sales estimate, the Census Bureau’s work on higher-frequency state-level retail sales data, the Federal Reserve Board’s computations of business closures and weekly payrolls, and the academic Opportunity Insights team’s estimates of spending, business revenues and employment by income and ZIP code. PubDate: 2022-02-23 DOI: 10.1057/s11369-021-00250-3
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Abstract: Abstract A Global Business Economist should look at the world as it is, not as it ought to be. We need to be mind-readers, anticipating questions to come and pre-emptively searching for answers. Global interactions are making economic analysis increasingly complex. We must incorporate these linkages into the analysis, enriching the models and the story with global flavour and supplementing both with on-the-field expert assessment. Our most valuable asset is our independence and credibility, so we must tell it just how it is. Finally, communication is key. It is paramount to make the story and our deliberations easy to understand, regardless of the complexity of the analysis. PubDate: 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.1057/s11369-022-00252-9
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Abstract: Abstract A panel discusses ongoing and prospective developments in the US labor market. Michael Horrigan points out that job losses in the COVID recession were heavily concentrated among women, minorities, and less-educated workers. In turn, these groups have shown less progress regaining jobs, and many have left the labor force. Horrigan shows that the industry connection between vacancies and wage increases is not at all tight, suggesting that traditional explanations that labor shortages are a matter of wages not clearing the market needs to be modified. Misty Heggeness notes that much of the weakness in women’s recent labor force participation has been by working mothers, but that their behavior has not been radically different than in the past. Policies that address the concerns of working mothers could lessen the possibility of swings like those recently seen. Kate Bahn expands to discuss more specific such policies, including paid leave, paid sick leave, more predictable work schedules, greater income support, as well as a revival of unions, as means to not only alleviate hardship, but also to increase labor market efficiency. Michael Strain contends that federal policy greatly enhanced consumer demand, but the income support programs, along with other problems, have restricted supply, leading to some of the distortions observed in the labor market. While he supports some of the policies proposed by other panelists, he is leery about the effects of specific government programs that have been offered. PubDate: 2022-01-20 DOI: 10.1057/s11369-021-00246-z
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Please help us test our new pre-print finding feature by giving the pre-print link a rating. A 5 star rating indicates the linked pre-print has the exact same content as the published article.
Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
[2469 journals]
