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Authors:Goeun Lee, Myoung-jae Lee Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. Regression discontinuity is popular in finding treatment/policy effects when the treatment is determined by a continuous variable crossing a cutoff. Typically, a local linear regression (LLR) estimator is used to find the effects. For binary response, however, LLR is not suitable in extrapolating the treatment, as in doubling/tripling the treatment dose/intensity. The reason is that doubling/tripling the LLR estimate can give a number out of the bound [math], despite that the effect should be a change in probability. We propose local maximum likelihood estimators which overcome these shortcomings, while giving almost the same estimates as the LLR estimator does for the original treatment. A simulation study and an empirical analysis for effects of an income subsidy program on religion demonstrate these points. Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-06-10T07:25:41Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221105968
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Authors:José M. Cantos Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. The globalization of commercial exchanges and capital movements reveal new ways of obtaining value in economic activities, and the differences in the tax burden of companies, depending on where they reside, have become threats for countries to exercise the right to tax business profits generated in its jurisdiction. This problem, together with tax competition between countries, causes a transfer of tax bases towards countries with lower tax rates and tax havens. The lack of agreement in the international community on how to find a solution to the problems has caused several countries to choose to establish special taxes for certain activities of multinational companies in their jurisdictions, resulting in inefficient taxes. This paper analyzes the agreement reached in October 2021 in the G20 and in the OECD in which measures are adopted within the BEPS project to prevent the erosion of tax bases in market jurisdictions promoted by multinational companies. After studying different aspects, we found fundamental reasons for not having an optimistic view on the effective solution to the problems above: unrealistic forecasts on the amount of the new estimated tax bases for Pillar 1 and the high administration and compliance costs. In conclusion, it is not foreseeable that the tax bases derived from the provision of digital services will suffer a territorial redistribution. We do not expect that a minimum tax rate of 15% in corporate tax will be carried out effectively or that the benefits that are transferred to tax havens will be significantly reduced. Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-06-03T02:51:39Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221103338
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Authors:Phuc Van Nguyen, Toan L. D. Huynh, Vu Minh Ngo, Huan Huu Nguyen Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. BackgroundVoluminous vaccine campaigns have been used globally, since the COVID-19 pandemic has brought devastating mortality and destructively unprecedented consequences to different aspects of economies. This study aimed to identify how the numbers of new deaths and new cases per million changed after half of the population had been vaccinated.MeasuresThis paper used actual pandemic consequence variables (death and infected rates) together with vaccination uptake rates from 127 countries to shed new light on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines. The 50% uptake rate was chosen as the threshold to estimate the real benefits of vaccination campaigns for reducing COVID-19 infection and death cases using the difference-in-differences (DiD) imputation estimator. In addition, a number of control variables, such as government interventions and people’s mobility patterns during the pandemic, were also included in the study.ResultsThe number of new deaths per million significantly decreased after half of the population was vaccinated, but the number of new cases did not change significantly. We found that the effects were more pronounced in Europe and North America than in other continents. Our results remain robust after using other proxies and testing the sensitivity of the vaccinated proportion.ConclusionsWe show the causal evidence of significantly lower death rates in countries where half of the population is vaccinated globally. This paper expresses the importance of vaccine campaigns in saving human lives during the COVID-19 pandemic, and its results can be used to communicate the benefits of vaccines and to fight vaccine hesitancy. Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-05-30T10:37:04Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221085352
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Authors:Jeffrey Smith Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. This paper considers recent methodological developments in the treatment effects literature, describes their value for applied evaluation work, and suggests next steps. It pays particular attention to documenting the presence of treatment effect heterogeneity, to the quest to attach treatment effect heterogeneity to particular subgroups and other moderators, and to the recent application of machine learning methods in this domain. Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-05-30T05:19:38Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221090731
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Authors:Luke W. Miratrix Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. BackgroundWe are sometimes forced to use the Interrupted Time Series (ITS) design as an identification strategy for potential policy change, such as when we only have a single treated unit and cannot obtain comparable controls. For example, with recent county- and state-wide criminal justice reform efforts, where judicial bodies have changed bail setting practices for everyone in their jurisdiction in order to reduce rates of pre-trial detention while maintaining court order and public safety, we have no natural and available comparison group other than the past.ObjectivesIn these contexts, it is imperative to model pre-policy trends with a light touch, allowing for structures such as autoregressive departures from any pre-existing trend, in order to accurately and realistically assess the uncertainty of our projections. We aim to provide a methodological approach rooted in commonly understood and used modeling tools to achieve this.Research DesignWe quantify uncertainty with simulation, generating a distribution of plausible counterfactual trajectories to compare to the observed; this approach naturally allows for incorporating seasonality and other time-varying covariates, and provides confidence intervals along with point estimates for the potential impacts of policy change.ResultsWe find simulation provides a natural framework to capture and show uncertainty in the ITS designs. It also allows for easy extensions such as nonparametric smoothing in order to handle multiple post-policy time points. Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-05-28T12:27:43Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221101286
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Authors:James Leslie Herbert Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. Evaluation influence is a reconceptualization of evaluation use that reflects the broad and diffuse impacts an evaluation can have on social programs and policies. This way of thinking about impact provides an opportunity to investigate how and why evaluations influence social programs and policy. Twenty participants (practitioners and managers) from two child protection programs evaluated in the previous 24 months were interviewed about the influence of these evaluations, which was complemented with the collection of internal documents about changes to the programs. A qualitative case study analysis of evaluation influence was conducted using the interviews and documents to investigate the influence of two evaluations at different stages in the dissemination process. The participants identified that the evaluations appeared to have significant high-level policy level influence; however, limited examples of influence on practices in the programs were identified. There was some suggestion that the evaluations had increased practitioner interest in working with and participating in program evaluations. The findings suggest the importance of developmental evaluation approaches and practitioner engagement in evaluation to improve the influence and adoption of new knowledge from the evaluation of social programs. Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-05-24T04:56:34Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221104911
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Authors:Ly Thi Tran, Huyen Bui, George Tan, Mar Rahimi Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. Major host countries of international students such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US have introduced post-study work rights as a strategic policy to both enhance their destination attraction and support international students’ post-graduation work experiences. While this policy is generally welcomed by both host institutions and international students, little is known about the support mechanism for the growing cohort of international student graduates who stay in their countries of study on temporary graduate visas, especially in relation to major concerns such as post-graduation work, visa application, and migration pathways. This article fills this gap in the existing literature. It is derived from a study that includes 50 interviews with university staff, agents, and international graduates. It uses positioning theory as a conceptual framework. The article assesses the role of universities in supporting their international alumni on temporary visas. The findings of the study raise concerns about the scope of university advice. It reports loopholes which legitimize the practices of migration agents to the conditions that enable them to exercise their exclusive rights in providing work-migration nexus advice to international students and graduates, making this cohort vulnerable to exploitation of unethical agents. The study provides the evidence base to develop recommendations for related stakeholders in improving the post-graduation experiences of international student graduates who remain in the host countries on temporary visas. Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-05-21T07:21:44Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221098211
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Authors:Ömer Tuğsal Doruk Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. ObjectiveThe present study examines the effect of fiscal policies on firm survival for small-and-medium-sized enterprises in the cross-country level firm-level data.Research DesignA propensity score matching analysis is utilised for the post-COVID-19 period firms by using the World Bank Enterprise Follow-up Surveys for the pandemic period. Small-and-medium-sized enterprises are essential to the economy; firm failures can increase in a pandemic.ResultsThe obtained findings show that the effect of fiscal policies has an essential effect on small-and-medium-sized enterprises survival in the COVID-19 pandemic period by using a cross-country heterogenous firm-level sample.ConclusionsIn this context, the present study shed new light on the link between COVID-19-related fiscal policies and small-and-medium-sized firm survival in developing countries. Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-05-16T10:17:43Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221100361
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Authors:Michael Appiah, Stephen T. Onifade, Bright A. Gyamfi Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. BackgroundThe Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region has notably been in the limelight of infrastructural deficit discussions over the decades. Although the region’s infrastructural development is gradually improving, the levels and pace of development remain generally poor compared to the rest of the world.ObjectivesThis study thus aims to empirically examine the roles of governance and institutions in infrastructural developments in the Sub-Sahara African (SSA) region toward addressing the pressing needs for critical infrastructures for the region.Research DesignsThe empirical strategies utilized in the study include the Common Correlated Efficient Mean Group (CCEMG) and Dynamic CCEMG methods among others. These empirical approaches were applied to analyze data on governance and institutional quality proxies for the SSA region to achieve the study’s objectives while controlling for the effects of industrial value-added, foreign capital inflow (FDI), and overall economic growth for the understudied period (1990–2019).ResultsThe results reflect the essence of governance and institutional quality as these variables significantly boost infrastructural development in SSA. In addition, industrialization and growth also show a favorable impact on the development of infrastructure thus reflecting that the transition from agrarian to industrial economies occurs in parallel with infrastructure development in the SSA. However, FDI inflows were not found to be significantly instrumental to infrastructural development in the region.ConclusionsHence, the SSA must strive to strengthen institutions and harmonize their industrial and economic push with infrastructural developments while encouraging potential foreign investors to diversify investments to infrastructural projects beyond the usual primary sector/resource-based activities. Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-05-13T09:06:36Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221100370
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Authors:Michael J. Maranda, Miranda J. Lee-Easton, Stephen Magura Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. BackgroundU.S. state legislatures fill a vital role in supporting the use of evidence-based interventions (EBIs) through statutes and regulations (mandates).ObjectiveThe study determined the terms used by selected states to describe EBIs and how those terms are defined in mandates.Research MethodsThe mandates of eight purposely selected states were accessed and coded using the Westlaw Legal Research Database.ResultsConsiderable variation was found in the terms used by states to describe EBIs. Although “evidence-based” was the most frequently utilized term (60% of mandates), an additional 29 alternative terms appeared with varying frequencies. Most terms were simply mentioned, with no further definition or elaboration. When terms were further defined or elaborated, the majority were defined using numerous and different types of external sources or references. Three approaches were found in the mandates defining EBIs: “single definition,” “hierarchies of evidence levels,” and “best available evidence”; the states differed considerably in the approaches used in their mandates.ConclusionsThe variations in EBI-related terminology across states and within states, coupled with a lack of elaboration on the meaning of important terms and the predominant use of external rather than internal guidelines, may be a source of confusion for behavioral health provider agencies that seek direction about what constitutes an EBI. Prior studies indicate that many agencies may lack staff with the technical ability to adequately evaluate what constitutes an EBI. Thus, lack of clear guidance from official state government mandates may impede the implementation of EBIs within states. Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-05-11T08:28:31Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221100356
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Authors:Daniele Bondonio, Teresa Farinha, Ricardo Paes Mamede Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. Public support to firm-level investments in innovation is one of the main mechanisms through which the European Union promotes socioeconomic convergence among regions and the creation of quality jobs is considered a necessary condition for the convergence of disadvantaged regional economies. This paper exploits the availability of natural experiment conditions and linked employer-employee microdata in Portugal to offer empirical evidence on the impact on relevant job-quality outcomes of a large EU-cohesion-policy program to support SMEs’ innovation investments. The analysis is implemented by means of stratification/coarsened exact matching model, combined with a difference in difference scheme, suitable to the specific impact identification conditions. Our results indicate that the policy intervention in Portugal had a positive impact on job-quality outcomes, with each supported firm generating an average of 4.9 additional standard-working-time jobs, +2.9 skilled jobs, and +2.0 permanent-contract jobs, compared to a counterfactual scenario of no public support. These impacts were at a cost of about 16,100€, 27,100€ and 39,400€ in public subsidies per additional job, respectively. We also estimate that the program impact was responsible for a 2.20€ (+17.8%) increase of the per-hour remuneration. These findings are robust to sensitivity analysis, in terms of alternative matching procedures and comparison groups, and they highlight the fact that increasing job-quality is a policy goal that can be pursued, at a reasonable cost, also by means of cohesion-policy support to innovation aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of SMEs.JEL classificationO1; R5; C23 Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-03-21T12:40:59Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221074765
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Authors:Daniele Bondonio Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. In recent years, a growing number of studies have applied regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) to the analysis of prominent regional economic development and business incentive policies. As a result, impact evaluations of these policy interventions are being increasingly commissioned under the assumption that local linear regressions have superior impact identification properties in the cases in which an eligibility boundary, geographical border or application cutoff is identifiable as a source of treatment assignment. This paper shows that in a number of frequently encountered cases, however, economic development and business incentive programs pose peculiar impact identification conditions in terms of violations of main assumptions for the validity of RDDs and of running variables that have little or no influence of the outcome variable. Under these circumstances, that bear generalizable relevance also for the analysis of other public programs at large, no adequate testing to support the internal validity of the applied discontinuity design is often performed in the literature and the use of local linear/polynomial regressions, or cross-border comparisons, becomes an inadequate choice. When these conditions apply, adopting instead other quasi-experimental methods to achieve an actual adequate treatment-control balance of the relevant baseline characteristic will often be a better approach.JEL classification; O1; R5; C23 Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-03-12T01:33:11Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221077558
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Authors:Tanjim Istiaque Chowdhury, Md Rakibul Hoque, Peter Wanke, Mohammad Zahir Raihan, Md Abul Kalam Azad First page: 235 Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. BackgroundDuring COVID-19 lockdown worldwide, classroom education continues remotely through online. The question remains, comparing with the face-to-face education, does online education has a similar satisfaction level among the students' There are only a few studies that examine the perceived service quality of online education.ObjectiveThe study aims to analyze the factors of perceived service quality of online education during a pandemic.Research DesignA structured questionnaire elicits information from 147 students from different study backgrounds of various universities worldwide. The fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) is used for data analysis and model design. Research constructs evaluation for reliability and internal consistency are subsequently performed. A snowball random sampling method is applied for data collection.ResultsFindings from the fsQCA analysis identify four core factors that underpin student satisfaction through positive perceived service quality of online education. Alternative paths are determined based on gender, students’ current education status, and their loyalty toward online education. We also introduce two topologies of perceived quality regarding online education and student satisfaction.OriginalityBecause of the primary nature of the data, this is firsthand experience gathered from different universities around the world who have willingly or unwillingly experienced online learning during the pandemic. The fsQCA technique for examining perceived service quality of online education.ConclusionsThe findings contain a number of contributions, illustrating different topologies of the student from different backgrounds and their intention, satisfaction and loyalty towards e-learning, and identifying causal factors that influence willingness to recommend online education. Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-03-26T02:57:38Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221084860
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Authors:Umer Shahzad, Muhammad Ramzan, Muhammad Ibrahim Shah, Buhari Doğan, Ahdi Noomen Ajmi First page: 266 Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. This study attempts to explore the causal linkage of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and tourism arrivals in the United States taking data from January to November 2020. In order to analyze the above relationship, this study uses a novel time-varying granger causality test developed by Shi et al. (2018), which incorporates its three causality algorithms such as forward recursive causality, rolling causality, and recursive evolving causality. The findings from forward recursive causality could not confirm any significant causal relationship between COVID-19 and tourism, geopolitical risk (GPR) and tourism, economic policy uncertainty and tourism, and geopolitical risk and COVID-19 but found causality between economic policy uncertainty and COVID-19. The rolling window causality reported bidirectional causality between COVID-19 and tourism and unidirectional causality running from tourism to geopolitical risk. However, the recursive evolving causality identified a significant bidirectional causal relationship between all the variables. Based on the findings, policy implications for the tourism sector are provided. Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-04-05T01:45:37Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221085355
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Authors:Lucy Shao, Richard A. Levine, Stefan Hyman, Jeanne Stronach, Juanjuan Fan First page: 296 Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. Background and ObjectivesSelecting applications for college admission is critical for university operation and development. This paper leverages machine learning techniques to support enrollment management teams through data-informed decision-making in this otherwise laborious admissions processing.Research Design and MeasuresTwo aspects of university admissions are considered. An ensemble learning approach, through the SuperLearner algorithm, is used to predict student show (yield) rate. The goal is to improve prediction accuracy to minimize over- or under-enrollment. A combinatorial optimization framework is proposed to weigh academic performance and experiential factors for ranking and selecting students for admission. This framework uses simulated annealing, and an efficacy study is presented to evaluate performance.ResultsThe proposed framework is illustrated for selecting an incoming class by optimizing predicted graduation rate and by developing an eligibility index. Each example presents a selection process under potential academic performance and experiential factor targets a university may place on an admitted class. R code is provided for higher education researchers and practitioners to apply the proposed methods in their own settings. Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-04-15T06:25:13Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221082887
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Authors:Nuno Carlos Leitão, Henrique Freixa Braz, Pedro Oliveira First page: 336 Abstract: Evaluation Review, Ahead of Print. ObjectivesThis study aims to empirically test the smooth adjustment hypothesis (SAH) in the Portuguese labour market during 2000–2018, considering changes in employment, wage, productivity, consumption and the marginal intra-industry trade.Research DesignSo, following the literature, a greater marginal intra-industry trade intensity should reduce adverse shocks expressed in temporary inefficiencies such as undesirable job search costs and workers’ relocation and retraining. According to state of the art, our research strategy considered a battery of diagnosis tests about the random generating process of variables included in a dynamic panel data model.MethodsThe extensive work developed in this paper is a further step to introduce recent techniques such as the Method of Moments Quantile Regression and the cointegration panel models to infer long-term dynamics.Results and ConclusionsOverall, the main point is that we find evidence confirming the hypothesis mentioned above, showing that mutual interactions reduce adverse shocks above mentioned. Thus, the study demonstrates that the marginal intra-industry trade promotes smooth adjustment in the Portuguese economy. Citation: Evaluation Review PubDate: 2022-04-25T03:07:29Z DOI: 10.1177/0193841X221085792
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