Authors:Mirzalina Zainal, Insukindro Insukindro, Akhmad Makhfatih Abstract: This study aims to analyze the cyclicality of fiscal policy under state finances law in Indonesia. The Indonesian government officially enacted the 2003 and 2004 Laws on State Finances, and it regulates fiscal rules covering the amount of the budget deficit and balanced budget rules. This fiscal rule is expected to encourage fiscal cyclicality to become countercyclical and provide buffering to deal with various economic shocks. This study uses quarterly time-series data from 2001 to 2019. The years 2001-2004 are used as the years prior to implementing the State Finance Law. Moreover, 2005 – 2019 is the time to capture the effects of cyclicality after implementing the Law. This study uses a dynamic distributed lag model to see the effect of GDP on government spending behavior. This study indicates that fiscal cyclicality before implementing the Law on State Finance behaved acyclically. Meanwhile, after implementing the Laws, this fiscal behavior is still procyclical. It means that the fiscal rules have not been effective in changing the direction and behavior of the fiscal to be countercyclical. PubDate: 2022-04-29 Issue No:Vol. 14, No. 1 (2022)
Authors:Titov Chuk's Mayvani, Rifai Afin, Alifah Rokhmah Idialis, Sariyani - Abstract: The tourism sector is one of the essential sectors that drive economic growth. There are many tourist destinations in Madura Island that have uniqueness, where the tourism is based on beaches, culture, history, and even religion. However, the existence of tourist destinations has not been widely felt by the Madurese community economically. Therefore, tourism development in Madura needs attention, considering the tourism sector plays a vital role in encouraging economic growth. This research uses scalogram analysis and K-Means Clustering analysis. The scalogram analysis consists of Location Coefficient (LC) analysis which reflects the level of importance of a facility in an area, and functional index analysis, which is used to measure the hierarchy of facilities in each district or region. Meanwhile, the K-Means Clustering analysis is intended to see the Madura tourism clusters. This study indicates that Sumenep Regency can be the centre of tourism growth in attractions, amenities, and accessibility. The analysis shows that Sumenep Regency is the closest distance to the cluster centre or can be categorized as an advanced cluster. Then, Pamekasan Regency is a less developed cluster because it is far from the cluster centre. This research provides some recommendation in increasing economic growth in Madura. PubDate: 2022-04-25 Issue No:Vol. 14, No. 1 (2022)
Authors:Heri Sandra, Taufiq Carnegie Dawood, M. Shabri Abd. Majid Abstract: This study aims to determine the effect of household characteristics and children's living environment on child labor to reduce the likelihood of child labor occurrence. The data source of this research is Sakernas (Indonesian National Labor Force Survey) of August 2018, including school accreditation, household head gender, age, working sector, employment status, household size, dependency ratio, location, and school quality, towards the probability of child labor occurrence in Indonesia. Results suggest that the government must prioritize welfare programs for women household heads, asses the minimum age for marriage, improve education facilities, and increase parental awareness to eliminate child labor. The government needs to improve education infrastructure. This infrastructure improvement should be accompanied by the convenience of school access and its costs. The lack of education infrastructure, especialy in rural areas makes it difficult for children there to attend formal schooling. PubDate: 2022-04-25 Issue No:Vol. 14, No. 1 (2022)
Authors:Adamu Waziri Babagana Abstract: Indonesia and Nigeria are considered suitable candidates for comparative analysis because of their similarities in natural endowments and geographical attributes, demography, economic structure, sociocultural diversity, and political history. Indonesia began to achieve rapid growth in the 1980s while Nigeria did not. During that period, economic policies in the two countries diverged, and this led to sustained economic growth in Indonesia and prolonged economic decline in Nigeria. However, as the countries transitioned to democratic rule in 1999 following the collapse of authoritarian regimes, some aspects of their political and economic trajectories revealed a trend towards convergence. Using the descriptive comparison of secondary data, the researcher analyzed those converging paths and the areas where the divergence continues. The study concludes that despite exhibiting more signs of convergence and dealing with similar challenges, the impact of initial conditions is likely to influence the developmental efforts in Indonesia and Nigeria. PubDate: 2022-04-25 Issue No:Vol. 14, No. 1 (2022)
Authors:Diah Setyawati Dewanti, Fitra Prasapawidya Purna Abstract: Tax is a policy tool to control the market. As Indonesia implied an agriculture tax of about 10% in 2014, it is worthy of capturing how it affects the market. This paper aims to find the effect of the implied tax on the market by seeing the country's sales, demand, imports, exports, and welfare. The method used is GTAP model simulation with the base of GTAP9 and aggregated based on the case applied. The result shows that the tax implied makes the demand, import, and export decrease even for the country that implements it. However, the sale and welfare gained by the origin country are increasing. Even China, the United States, and Australia have difficulty dealing with the policy as their welfare decreases. This research tries to find the effect of the agriculture tax that Indonesia implied in 2014. Using GTAP model simulation reveals how the tax affects the sale, demand, import, export, and gain or loss of welfare country. PubDate: 2022-04-25 Issue No:Vol. 14, No. 1 (2022)
Authors:Rama Vandika Daniswara, Ivana -, Deshinta Rahma Dhani, Shafira Aulia Utami, Mohamad Dian Revindo Abstract: The Asian financial crisis in 1997/98 and the global financial crisis in 2007/8 suggest that more research on economic integration is needed. This study aims to examine the depth and path of integration in the real and financial sectors among ASEAN member states during 1999-2019. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller–Generalised Least Squared (ADF-GLS) test results show stronger evidence of ASEAN real sector integration than its financial sector. Further, time lag analysis shows that the adjustments of interest rates in ASEAN countries are slower than those of price levels in the real economy. Academic and policy implications of the findings are provided, mainly on the need for stronger cooperation in ASEAN’s financial sector. PubDate: 2022-04-05 Issue No:Vol. 14, No. 1 (2022)
Authors:Adhitya Wardhono, M. Abd. Nasir Abstract: Poverty is a multidimensional phenomenon that can be measured by variety of approaches. The measurements of poverty based on consumption levels are not sufficient to explain various shortcomings faced by the poor. Household financial behavior that tends to be dynamic will indirectly affect household income patterns. Using data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) wave 5, this study aimed to identify the impact of household financial behavior on poverty in Indonesia. The results of analysis using Tobit Regression showed that the levels of financial vulnerability, financial literacy, education level, arisan or the rotating economy of savings and credit associations (ROSCAs), and total credit have a negative, significant relationship in influencing poverty. This means that when this variable increases, it will reduce poverty in Indonesia. Meanwhile, the location of residence, either in village or city, has a positive, significant relationship which implies that the location of residence has an impact on the poverty level in Indonesia. PubDate: 2022-04-04 Issue No:Vol. 14, No. 1 (2022)
Authors:Budiandru Budiandru Abstract: The Indonesian capital market is one of the investment destination countries for investors in developed countries. The development of economic conditions in Indonesia itself is considered suitable for investors to invest. Insurance sector stocks are one of the sectors that are the target of investors. This study predicts the share price of insurance companies. Data in daily form from 2010 to 2020 uses the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH - GARCH) method. The results showed that forecasting that was carried out until 2025 all the insurance companies studied experienced an upward trend in stock prices. Investors can manage their funds by increasing or decreasing the insurance stock portfolio and adjusting the asset allocation with the investment strategy. PubDate: 2022-03-24 Issue No:Vol. 14, No. 1 (2022)
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