JournalTOCs

International Economics and Economic Policy
Journal Prestige (SJR): 0.244

Citation Impact (citeScore): 1
Number of Followers: 7

Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 1612-4812 - ISSN (Online) 1612-4804
Published by Springer-Verlag

[2469 journals]

Attracting private capital for development: Are poorer countries less
efficient'
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  Abstract: Abstract According to common measures of private capital mobilization, such as the shares of foreign direct and portfolio investment in GDP, many low-income countries perform poorly in attracting private capital flows. However, these indicators do not account for differences in economic characteristics across countries, and thus cannot provide insights on countries’ performance relative to their potential levels of private capital flows as determined by their domestic economic structure and constraints. This paper addresses this gap by using nonparametric data envelopment analysis (DEA) to empirically calculate the efficient frontier for private capital mobilization as a function of countries’ domestic enabling environment, and then assess each country’s performance relative to that of other countries featuring similar domestic conditions. Our results reveal that many low-income countries, particularly in Africa and South Asia, which do not rank high according to achieved levels of private capital flows, are in fact performing on or very close to the efficient frontier. This indicates that these countries are good performers given the limited resources available to them. Tracking the performance of countries and regions over time, we furthermore find that sub-Saharan Africa experienced the strongest increases in DEA efficiency scores between 2007 and 2018, indicating that various countries in this region were catching up with the frontier.
  PubDate: 2022-09-05
Correction: The capital tax paradox in a greening economy
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  PubDate: 2022-09-01
Should they stay or should they go' Negative interest rate policies
under review
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  Abstract: Abstract Negative interest rate policies (NIRP) have become an established monetary policy instrument in the toolkit of the ECB. We discuss NIRP in the euro area based on theoretical considerations and available empirical evidence. We find that NIRP had some positive impact on loan growth and investment in the euro area, but that the room to further loosen monetary policy via NIRP may be small. NIRP is discussed also in the context of the general monetary policy environment.
  PubDate: 2022-09-01
Foreign macroeconomic conditions and antidumping actions: evidence from
the USA
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  Abstract: Abstract This study investigates the influence of foreign macroeconomic conditions on antidumping actions. We focus on the role of macroeconomic conditions in exporting countries, although previous studies have emphasized the role of macroeconomic conditions in importing countries. Our theoretical analysis shows that dumping exports is more likely to occur when the exporting country’s economic condition is good. The appreciation of the import country’s currency is less likely to induce dumping exports, whereas it causes damage to the import country’s industry. Using the data on antidumping activity in the USA, we find that higher economic growth in exporting countries is positively related to antidumping initiatives, dumping determinations, and injury determinations. These antidumping actions against an exporting country are also associated with increased imports from the country. In contrast, the appreciation of the US dollar against an exporting country’s currency is linked only to the injury determination against the country. Antidumping measures are easy to use to protect domestic industries from an increase in imports from booming foreign economies.
  PubDate: 2022-07-07
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-022-00545-6
Transmission mechanisms of conventional and unconventional monetary
policies in open economies
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  Abstract: Abstract This paper provides an empirical examination on the transmission mechanisms of conventional and unconventional monetary policies for two non-EMU countries, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, over the period 1990–2017. We investigate the role of stock prices and consumer expectations in the transmission of monetary policy. We propose two distinct structural VAR models. The model for the case of conventional monetary policy covers the pre-2009 period, while the model for the case of unconventional monetary policy covers the post-2009 period. The official bank policy rate and central bank’s reserve assets are used as instruments for conventional and unconventional monetary policy. The analysis reveals that the inclusion of a forward-looking informational variable of near-term development in economic activity and a financial variable such as the stock prices is of key importance for the monetary policy assessment. We provide evidence for the existence of a consumer confidence channel in the transmission of conventional monetary policy. Moreover, the long-term government bond yields, the exchange rate and stock prices have an important role in the transmission of unconventional monetary policy. Our findings indicate that conventional and unconventional monetary policies have short-run expansionary effects in both countries by increasing output, consumption, investment, stock prices and wages, while reducing unemployment.
  PubDate: 2022-07-01
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-021-00527-0
Factors affecting bank loan quality: a panel analysis of emerging markets
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  Abstract: Abstract This study investigates the factors affecting the loan quality of banking sector in seventeen emerging and developing markets using quarterly panel dataset covering period of 2010–2019 and utilising feasible generalised least square methodology. Our empirical analysis suggests that inflation and lending rates negatively affect the banks’ loan quality measured by non-performing loans. On the contrary, economic growth and capital adequacy show a positive impact on banks’ loan quality. The inclusion of the ratio of net open position in foreign exchange to capital and its’ lagged values, as an additional factor, has marked out this research from other studies. Our results reveal that the ratio has a significant negative impact on loan quality in banking. This finding, as it was also seen in Asian crises of 1997, indicates that the higher the ratio net open position in foreign exchange to capital cause moral hazard problem leading to the higher non-performing loans in banking sectors.
  PubDate: 2022-07-01
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-021-00520-7
Good institutions, more FDI' Evidence from Indian firm-level data
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  Abstract: Abstract The study examines the effect of institutional quality on the FDI of Indian firms at the intensive country margin. In the present study, the state judiciary system, bureaucracy system, and property-right protection are taken to represent the institutional quality of the host country. The study focuses on examining the effect of institutional quality on FDI controlling for the heterogeneity at the firm level. The results show that institutional quality does have a significant effect on FDI at the intensive country margin. The result suggests that, ceteris paribus, the increase in institutional quality leads to an average increase [exp(0.498)-1]*100 = 60.5% in FDI from Indian firms. The results reveal that FDI from large firms is positively associated with the institutional quality of the host country. The results also reveal that the institutional quality of developed regions is positively associated with FDI. However, there is a negative association between the institutional quality of the developing region and FDI. The firms usually prefer to invest in institutionally sound developed countries (self-selection). To address the source of endogeneity the ‘selection effect’ is explicitly controlled by using a two-stage average treatment effect (ATE). The result is consistent with the initial findings.
  PubDate: 2022-07-01
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-021-00523-4
Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era
of globalization'*
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  Abstract: Abstract I revisit the 1918–20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using annual data for 17 countries for the 1870–1928 period, a variety of tests and techniques are used to draw some robust conclusions. Overall, the pandemic a century ago interrupted, but did not put an end, to the first globalization of the twentieth century. However, two blocs consisting of combatant and non-combatant countries, experienced significantly different consequences. Globalization was sharply curtailed for the combatant countries while there were few, if any, consequences for globalization in the non-combatant group of countries. That said, there was considerable resilience especially in trade openness among several of the combatant economies. Perhaps changes in the make-up of economic blocs, post-pandemic, is a fallout from shocks of this kind. While there are lessons for the ongoing COVID pandemics differences between the 1920s and today also play a role.
  PubDate: 2022-07-01
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1
Special issue of the journal international economics and economic policy:
international economics, climate policy innovations and economic policy
(IEEP, issue 2)
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  PubDate: 2022-06-22
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-022-00540-x
The capital tax paradox in a greening economy
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  Abstract: Abstract We adopt a simple model of endogenous growth with polluting capital and a fixed budget for aggregate emissions. Pollution abatement efficiency is growing over time due to technical progress. We find that long-run capital and consumption are inversely related to the initial capital stock. Capital taxation does not harm the economy but actually raises long-run consumption and production, which we call the “capital tax paradox.” The reason for this surprising result is that in an economy with a binding carbon policy, early abundance of polluting capital is not a blessing but a curse. It is preferable to have a large capital stock when abatement efficiency has grown sufficiently large. The paper also provides novel results on the impact of pollution intensity and the rate of technical progress on the greening of the economy and the pollution permit prices. In the quantitative part, we calibrate model and study economic growth under different assumptions on the basic model parameters.
  PubDate: 2022-06-18
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-022-00536-7
Business cycle characteristics of Mediterranean economies: a secular trend
and cycle dynamics perspective
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  Abstract: Abstract This study analyzes business cycle characteristics for all 20 major contemporaneous economies bordering the Mediterranean Sea based on annual real gross domestic product series for the period from 1960 to 2019. The region we investigate corresponds to the Mare Internum region of the Imperial Roman Empire during the Nerva-Antonine and early Severan dynasty, i.e., at the time of the maximum extent of the Roman Empire around 100 to 200 CE. The covered area encircles the Mediterranean, including economies now belonging to the European Union as well as acceding countries, Turkey, and the Middle East and North African economies. Using a components-deviation-cycle approach, we assess level trends and relative volatility of output. We also quantify the contribution of various factors to the business cycle variability within a region. We find cyclic commonalities and idiosyncrasies are related to ancient and colonial history and to contemporaneous trade relationships. Caliphate and Ottoman Empire membership as well as colonial rule in the twentieth century and contemporary Muslim share of population are the most promising predictors of business cycle commonalities in the region.
  PubDate: 2022-06-08
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-022-00544-7
FDI, liquidity, and political uncertainty: A global analysis
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  Abstract: Abstract Uncertainty incentivizes investors to wait-and-see and to hold back their investments. This paper investigates whether more liquid types of foreign direct investment (FDI) are affected more by political uncertainty than less liquid ones. Drawing from the real options theory, we develop hypotheses on the sensitivity of different types of FDI. We utilize descriptive statistics and a simple estimation approach to gauge the liquidity of quarterly equity investments, reinvested earnings, and intra-company debt. Then, we deploy election data and the World Uncertainty Index to examine how the three FDI subtypes respond to high political uncertainty. In line with the real options theory, reinvested earnings significantly drop in an election quarter. However, this only holds for high-income countries. In lower-middle- and low-income countries, electoral uncertainty negatively affects equity investments, with higher institutional quality moderating the effect. In particular, the number of veto players and the government’s credibility decrease the effect of uncertainty on FDI.
  PubDate: 2022-06-07
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-022-00543-8
Oil price shocks and global liquidity: macroeconomic effects on the
Brazilian real
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  Abstract: Abstract This paper examines the effects of the interaction between the oil market and measures of global liquidity on the Brazilian real against the US dollar, using an SVAR framework. The results show that approximately 15% of the variance of the real exchange rate is associated with oil-specific demand shocks in the long run. Supply and aggregate demand shocks are less important. The recovery of the Brazilian currency in the aftermath of the global financial crisis is more related to global liquidity than oil prices. Oil price changes affect the interest rate spread, which puts further pressure on the real exchange rate. Our results shed light on the impact of oil price shocks on the Brazilian economy by providing important insights into the foreign exchange policy in Brazil.
  PubDate: 2022-05-31
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-022-00532-x
OECD countries’ twin long-run challenge: The impact of aging dynamics
and increasing natural disasters on savings ratios
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  Abstract: Abstract There has been a long-standing debate over the development of savings rates in developed economies, and an emphasis has been placed on aging societies and a global savings glut. Meanwhile, with rising global temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events becoming an increasingly visible economic and ecological global challenge, the concern of climate-related risks could indeed be an important issue in monetary and real economic analysis. This study aims to investigate the dual long-term challenge of sustainable economic development. By constructing an enhanced growth model and investigating empirically, using a panel approach which employs data from OECD countries between 1980 and 2020, the question as to the extent to which the savings rate is affected by aging populations and environmental degradation will be addressed in a broad macro perspective. This study explores for the first time the impact of natural disasters on OECD countries and the main findings indicate that aging populations and natural disasters have significant negative impacts on savings rates. Moreover, the analyses using sub-samples suggest a diminishing role of the real long-term interest rate regarding savings behaviour.
  PubDate: 2022-05-25
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-022-00539-4
The distribution of power within the EU: perspectives on a Ukrainian
accession and a Turkish accession
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  Abstract: Abstract On February 28th, 2022, Ukraine submitted an application concerning accession to the European Union. As Ukraine is already linked to the European Union through an Association Agreement and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement—signed in 2014—there might be a chance for the Ukraine to join the EU within the next decade. With about 41 million inhabitants, Ukraine is a rather large country and the 65% majority requirement under the EU’s Qualified Majority Voting rules would give Ukraine some significant power in a future EU28. Herein, it is shown how relative political power indices—as measured by the Banzhaf index—would change in the case of an EU enlargement to allow accession by Ukraine: The large economies would lose power and, surprisingly, many small countries would gain political power. Such perspectives might lead one to reconsider the voting procedures of the Council of the European Union at the EU level in the course of future negotiations on amendments to the Lisbon Treaty. The case of Turkey’s accession is also considered as is the case of Montenegro joining the European Union.
  PubDate: 2022-05-18
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-022-00541-w
The effect of child benefits on financial difficulties and spending
habits: evidence from Poland’s Family 500 + program
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  Abstract: Abstract In response to the low fertility rate and high child poverty in Poland, the government implemented the Family 500 + program which provides cash transfers to families with two or more children, and low-income, one-child families. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we explore the causal effect of this policy on expenditure and financial difficulties of beneficiaries relative to non-eligible families. The findings suggest that after the introduction of the program, expenditures on food and cultural activities increased, and the likelihood of experiencing a hardship paying for utilities and medical care declined for the treatment relative to the control group. These results imply a beneficial effect of child benefits on tackling financial difficulties of families with children. From a policy perspective, the findings indicate that cash transfers can alleviate child poverty concerns and financial constraints to having children.
  PubDate: 2022-05-08
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-022-00534-9
A time series approach to study the dynamic effects of bilateral trade
agreements
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  Abstract: Abstract In this work, the effects of 103 bilateral regional trade agreements (RTAs: partial scope agreements — PSAs — and free trade agreements — FTAs) are studied in a dynamic way. The analysis of quarterly trade flows from Q4-1982 to Q4-2018 shows dynamic differences between RTAs and among trade partners. Results show that countries benefit unevenly from bilateral RTAs and that their economic size is not determinant. The positive global trade trend since the 1990s and the negative effect of the 2008 economic crisis are captured by the factor analysis in order to study specifically how trade agreements affect bilateral trade asymmetrically. On average, RTAs promote a 10% increase in bilateral trade flows above the mean trend, but PSAs tend to enhance bilateral trade more than FTAs (21% compared to 9%). Additionally, PSAs gather most of the effects during the first four quarters after the agreements are enforced whereas FTAs have longer effects over time. The current study allows a classification of bilateral trade series in homogeneous groups according to the dynamic impact of the bilateral RTAs by the means of a cluster analysis. Heterogeneity between clusters is therefore explored. Moreover, a difference concerning the economic crisis starting in 2008 is noticed: overall, for agreements in force before 2008, their impact on bilateral trade is positive (30%) while it is negative for agreements signed after 2008 (− 9%). This indicates that RTAs play a heterogeneous role as a smoothing cycle mechanism. Finally, evidence of the anticipation effect is found.
  PubDate: 2022-04-02
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-022-00529-6
The past, present and future of euro area monetary-fiscal interactions
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  Abstract: Abstract The EU’s Treaties were designed to limit the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies. However, over the last decade, the introduction of the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme and its sovereign bond purchase programmes has created some strong linkages between monetary and fiscal policies in the Eurosystem. The ECB’s monetary policies have improved fiscal debt sustainability and reduced the probability of sovereign default. However, there may need to be limits to the ECB’s purchases of sovereign bonds. This paper discusses the interactions between fiscal and monetary policies in the euro area and describes how the arguments raised by the European Court of Justice in the Weiss and Gauweiler cases suggest there may be hard limits on the size of the Eurosystem’s sovereign bond holdings. These limits may undermine the positive impact of the OMT announcement and force the ECB into some difficult choices in the coming years.
  PubDate: 2022-03-01
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-022-00531-y
Environmental policy and convexity of climate change damage functions: an
experiment with New Keynesian DSGE model
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  Abstract: Abstract The paper seeks out to investigate how varying degree of convexity of climate change damage function affect economic output and the dynamic response of macroeconomic variables to shocks under different environmental policy regimes. In an economy featuring nominal rigidities and monopolistically competitive firms together with climate change mitigation policy and firm abatement effort, the results show that the choice of damage function affects long-term growth of the economy and the performance of climate mitigation policy. A highly convex climate damage function has a significant contractionary effect on economic output and by extension consumption and private investment. This result stands irrespective of the environmental policy put in place. The impact of exogenous shocks on the macroeconomic variables is higher than the degree of convexity of the damage function. Cap-and-trade policy compresses the response of macroeconomic variables to these shocks, irrespective of curvature of the damage function. The results are robust to different calibrations of the climate damage functions.
  PubDate: 2022-03-01
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-022-00528-7
A general equilibrium model of Value Added Tax evasion: an application to
Pakistan
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  Abstract: Abstract Value Added Taxes (VAT) constitute a major share of tax revenues in developing countries in which tax evasion is widespread. The literature on VAT evasion, however, is relatively scant. This paper develops a computable general equilibrium framework for analyzing endogenous VAT tax evasion. The analytical framework entails increasing enforcement through greater spending on the enforcement of tax revenue collection. We assume that there is an elasticity that connects the changes in enforcement to actual increases in VAT collection. We apply the model to Pakistan data and show the level of enforcement spending required to achieve certain VAT collection targets. We also examine the short-, medium-, and long-term macroeconomic outlooks, and real consumption distribution across household economic groups associated with higher enforcement spending. We calibrate the model using 2016 as the base year and then run the dynamic model forward for 20 years. We define the implicit VAT rate as that hypothetical statutory rate that, in the absence of evasion, would approximately generate the observed VAT collection. We assume zero additional spending on enforcement in the baseline and estimate two alternative scenarios of VAT revenue target of 8% and 15% of the GDP. The alternative scenarios require increase in enforcement spending by a compounded 46.4% and 322.4%, respectively. We find that the increased enforcement spending enhances the sustainability of the government’s budget deficit without causing a decline in real GDP over the long-term. The interest and inflation rates are also lowered. However, there is a small regressive impact on households’ real consumption.
  PubDate: 2022-02-02
  DOI: 10.1007/s10368-022-00530-z