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Authors:Sam R. Bell, Risa Kitagawa Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. How do human rights organizations (HROs) shape transitional justice policy in countries emerging from conflict' We investigate this question in the context of peace processes, a vital stage when many key post-conflict policies are determined. Using granular data on the content of peace agreements, we show that the robust presence of HROs significantly increases the likelihood of provisions promising criminal accountability for wartime abuses. Yet this association is conditional on prior ratification of international human rights instruments and the existence of impartial third parties in the peace process—background factors that lower barriers to effective HRO advocacy. These findings reveal a novel pathway through which HROs secure transitional justice on the national agenda after conflict. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-06-15T05:25:16Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942221104032
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Authors:Julianne Phillips Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. How does expanding the nuclear club alter the structure of the international system' The structure of alignments in the international system clearly shapes nuclear proliferation, as great powers often pressure subordinates into eschewing nuclear pursuit. What remains unclear, however, is how nuclear acquisition by subordinate states can, in turn, affect these alignments. I use a formal model to show that including great powers’ preferences after their allies have acquired nuclear weapons reveals a new mechanism behind proliferation: nuclear possession can allow states to change their patrons’ incentives and draw them closer, even against their wishes, thereby tightening hierarchies. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-06-07T05:16:22Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942221099463
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Authors:Shoko Kohama, Toshiyuki Himichi, Kazunori Inamasu, Nobuhiro Mifune, Yohsuke Ohtsubo, Atsushi Tago Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. Apologies by political leaders to the citizens of a victimized country have attracted attention in recent years as a means of improving relations between nations. Existing studies have identified several elements that make such an apology effective, but from the politician's point of view, it is difficult to issue a statement containing all these elements, and they must then be chosen while considering domestic backlash and relations with countries other than the victimized one. However, it is not sufficiently clear how the victimized country's citizens weigh the elements of the apology when they accept it and how the nature of the harm caused changes this. Therefore, we conducted a survey experiment in Japan, adopting a conjoint design using scenarios depicting fictional US presidential apologies to Japan. Our experiment demonstrated three attributes particularly regarded as important in determining whether people would accept an apology: the reparation amount, whether the apology was official (formality), and the voluntariness of the apology. However, when something that people consider “sacred” has been harmed, reparation proposals are counterproductive, and the optimal apology form may depend on the nature of the harm. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-06-07T05:13:00Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942221094761
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Authors:Richard J Saunders Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. Previous research shows that leader turnover and change in a leader's winning coalition are associated with rivalry termination. However, this research often conflates change in leadership or winning coalition with more fundamental reform of the institutions governing the state. This article argues that only changes in a rival's governing institutions should lead to rivalry termination. Changes in leader preferences may lead to conciliatory policies, but provide no certainty regarding the sincerity or longevity of these policies. Fundamental changes to the institutions of a state alter the menu of policy options available to the leadership and are difficult to undo. Institutional reform in Rival A makes the leadership of Rival B more willing to undertake potentially risky cooperative action, leading to rivalry termination. I test this argument in a dataset of rivalry terminations spanning 1919–2010, finding that institutional reform in one rival leads to an increase in the likelihood of rivalry termination regardless of the issues of contention. Irregular leader turnover and change in a state's winning coalition have no effect. Further, in a break with previous research, I find that any institutional reform—toward autocracy, toward democracy or laterally—is associated with an increased likelihood of rivalry termination. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-05-06T03:32:32Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942221092086
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Authors:Amit Loewenthal, Sami H Miaari, Alexei Abrahams Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. States, in their conflicts with militant groups embedded in civilian populations, often resort to policies of collective punishment to erode civilian support for the militants. We attempt to evaluate the efficacy of such policies in the context of the Gaza Strip, where Israel's blockade and military interventions, purportedly intended to erode support for Hamas, have inflicted hardship on the civilian population. We combine Palestinian public opinion data, Palestinian labor force surveys, and Palestinian fatalities data, to understand the relationship between exposure to Israeli policies and Palestinian support for militant factions. Our baseline strategy is a difference-in-differences specification that compares the gap in public opinion between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank during periods of intense punishment with the gap during periods when punishment is eased. Consistent with previous research, we find that Palestinian fatalities are associated with Palestinian support for more militant political factions. The effect is short-lived, however, dissipating after merely one quarter. Moreover, the blockade of Gaza itself appears to be only weakly associated with support for militant factions. Overall, we find little evidence to suggest that Israeli security policies toward the Gaza Strip have any substantial lasting effect on Gazan support for militant factions, neither deterring nor provoking them relative to their West Bank counterparts. Our findings therefore call into question the logic of Israel's continued security policies toward Gaza, while prompting a wider re-examination of the efficacy of deterrence strategies in other asymmetric conflicts. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-05-06T02:48:12Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942221097325
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Authors:Amira Jadoon, Hina Khalid Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. How does political violence affect public health risks' While past research provides useful insights, it remains unclear how the effect of violence on health risks varies by perpetrator identity, target, and the intensity of attacks. We argue that indiscriminate attacks by militants will discourage civilians from accessing healthcare services. In contrast, clashes between militants and governments are likely to induce state actors to augment healthcare provision, while reinforced state control may facilitate civilians’ access. We test our arguments by employing multilevel modeling using subnational data on political violence events within Pakistan between 2005 and 2011, and immunization rates for under-5 infectious diseases. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-04-26T07:23:29Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942221094006
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Authors:Christoph Trinn, Lennard Naumann Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. The discovery of power laws in conflict intensities has spurred numerous explanation attempts. Two different interpretations have persisted: the notion that power laws are spurious results of random processes and the opposing view that power-law distributions attest to endogenous dynamics linked to self-organized criticality (SOC). We substantiate the SOC forest-fire model for intrastate conflicts, conceptualizing conflict potential as social pressure, measured by horizontal inequality. This potential is triggered by infinitesimal events. Their occurrence depends on the interaction density between conflict actors, operationalized as the conjunction of state capacity and non-state governance. In a global analysis of 143 conflict dyads, we find that 40 conform to a power law and 33 to a stretched exponential distribution, the two outcomes predicted by the model. We find evidence that the forest-fire model is a plausible approximation of the dynamics of intrastate conflicts, accounting for both the conformity and the non-conformity to power laws. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-04-12T07:35:45Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942221092126
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Authors:Steven V Miller Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. This article introduces {peacesciencer}, an R package that contains a litany of tools for creating data of widespread interest to the peace science community. The package is cross-platform, assuming only a somewhat recent installation of the R programming language with some of the enhanced functionality of the broadly popular {tidvyerse} packages. Peace science researchers can use this package to greatly reduce the time needed to perfectly recreate common types of data from scratch and to merge in ubiquitous indicators included in almost every analysis (e.g. democracy data, contiguity data). The software is freely available on CRAN and maintains an active website documenting its features at http://svmiller.com/peacesciencer. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-03-24T01:30:02Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942221077926
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Authors:Anselm Hager, Kunaal Sharma Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. We study whether religious anti-violence norms can reduce violent attitudes in settings of deep religious divisions. Our study context is a neighborhood in Nairobi with a history of religious violence. We randomly expose 576 Christian and Muslim respondents to anti-violence norms drawn from religious sources and find that the primes reduce violent attitudes by 0.2 standard deviations. We find no evidence, however, that highlighting the norms’ religious source increases their effectiveness. Rather, we show that subjects apply the norms in a literal manner, suggesting that it is the norms’ content that make them effective. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-03-22T03:44:34Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942221077914
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Authors:Timothy JA Passmore, Megan Shannon, Morgan Nadeau Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. Despite evidence that United Nations peacekeeping is a cost-effective tool for addressing civil and interstate conflict, it has consistently experienced financial shortfalls as member states neglect to pay their dues. To enable investigation into the dynamics of peacekeeping support, we present newly collected data on all member-state financial contributions to all UN peacekeeping operations from 1990 to 2010. The data also include dues assessed by the UN to gauge the extent to which states fall short of what they owe. We show that financial shortfalls are widespread and vary across both missions and contributors. The data offer opportunities to understand patterns of financial support for peacekeeping across states, missions, and time, and can ultimately provide insight into the factors that lead states to support international institutions and public goods. We illustrate how scholars can use the data with an analysis of the factors that drive states to meet their financial commitments. We find that wealthier states, those more engaged in global trade, democracies, and those that also contribute personnel to peacekeeping operations are the most likely to pay their dues. Conversely, the United States and countries in the Americas, Africa, and Asia are more likely to shirk part or all of their financial obligations in a given year. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-03-21T02:32:58Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942221081099
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Authors:Barış Arı Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. Costs associated with recognizing an internal armed challenger as a legitimate bargaining partner deter governments from initiating peace talks. Yet peaceful termination of conflict requires formal negotiations between the belligerents. This article presents evidence that democratic reforms provide a window of opportunity for peace talks. Democratic reforms represent an opportunity to break away from the past policies of the state and render the conflict as an artifact of the preceding authoritarian institutions. The article contributes to the research field by enhancing our ability to predict negotiations. It also highlights that democratic reforms can be undertaken during an ongoing civil conflict. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-03-07T04:00:46Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942221081792
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Authors:Christoph Valentin Steinert Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. The Chinese regime is well known for the large-scale detention of dissidents and ethnic minorities. However, little is known about the fates of Chinese political prisoners. This study investigates determinants of the duration of political imprisonment in China. I argue that the duration of political imprisonment is shaped by (a) the perceived threat of individuals’ actions, and (b) their ethnic and religious identities. Drawing on the Chinese political prisoner database, I investigate predictors of the duration of political imprisonment with survival models. Since preceding actions shape detention times, I hand-code each prisoner's criminalized actions that led to incarceration. The evidence suggests that the Chinese regime conditions the duration of political imprisonment on prisoners’ demands and their collective action potential. The findings further demonstrate that ethnic Uyghurs and Tibetans are imprisoned significantly longer than non-minority political prisoners. Additional analyses demonstrate that ethnic Uyghurs are also significantly more likely to die in prison. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-03-03T03:52:31Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942221080105
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Authors:Marius Mehrl Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. Recent research examines when and why women join rebel groups as combatants. However, we are only beginning to understand how their presence affects rebel group behaviour and conflict dynamics more generally. I address this gap by analysing how women's participation influences two dimensions of rebel behaviour: their relationship to civilians and their fighting performance. I argue that a greater number of female rebels decreases civilian victimization, but also reduces rebel combat performance. I test these propositions using time-varying district-level data from the Nepalese civil war. The results support both expectations. These findings increase our understanding of the effects of women's participation in civil war. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-03-02T04:14:13Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942221082234
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Authors:Wukki Kim, Todd Sandler Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. This paper quantifies how past transnational terrorist attacks against a potential donor's assets result in enhanced foreign aid flows to a country hosting the responsible terrorist group. Given the reversed causality between foreign aid and terrorism, our empirical analysis puts forward an instrumental variable. Both conflict and governance assistance are shown to stem from transnational terrorist incidents involving recipient–donor dyads during 1974–2013 for a global sample. For recipient-related terrorism, lagged transnational terrorist events against a donor's assets display a robust positive impact on conflict and governance aid. Placebo or falsification tests support the exogeneity of the instrument. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-02-22T11:24:29Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942221081103
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Authors:Francisco Villamil Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. Wartime civilian victimization produces a counter-reaction against the perpetrator. However, this effect hinges on the creation of collective memories of wartime events. In many countries, former fighting actors and political elites try to redirect memories of wartime events through denial, propaganda, and co-optation. Previous works have ignored these aspects. I argue that the effect of violence is conditional on the capacity of local communities to build collective memories and bypass those efforts. I test this argument using local-level data from Guatemala. The results show that the effects of state violence on postwar voting depend on prewar exposure to political mobilization. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-02-22T10:41:10Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942211066539
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Authors:Saadet Ulasoglu Imamoglu Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. Recent studies suggest that a lack of judicial independence increases the risk of violent action, diminishing the incentives to solve disputes peacefully. However, violent action is not the only option when judiciaries are under the control of the executive. I argue that individuals become refugees in countries with non-independent judiciaries, losing their hope that violations of rules by the executive or privileged groups will be tried fairly. Using data from 181 countries over the 1976–2015 period, I find evidence that the lack of judicial independence leads countries to produce more refugees than others. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-02-09T04:09:44Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942211072433
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Authors:Christian Davenport First page: 375 Abstract: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Ahead of Print. This extension of Christian Davenport's virtual Presidential address to the Peace Science Society International attempts to: (1) identify as well as confront some of the issues that divide the Peace Science community and (2) provide some ideas/actions about what can be done to fix them. The article is as much a reflection on where we have been as it is a call to where we must go. Citation: Conflict Management and Peace Science PubDate: 2022-02-22T11:24:23Z DOI: 10.1177/07388942211066117
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