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Comparative Political Studies
Journal Prestige (SJR): 3.772  Citation Impact (citeScore): 3 Number of Followers: 179  Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)ISSN (Print) 0010-4140 - ISSN (Online) 1552-3829 Published by Sage Publications  [1174 journals]
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- Is There a First Mover Advantage in Lobbying' A Comparative Analysis
of How the Timing of Mobilization Affects the Influence of Interest Groups
in 10 Polities-
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Authors: Michele Crepaz, Marcel Hanegraaff, Wiebke Marie Junk
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
The first mover advantage is a critical factor for the productivity of firms that enter new markets. Surprisingly, however, the importance of timing is rarely explored in studies of interest groups and their influence on new policy agendas. In this article, we therefore develop a theory of first mover advantages in lobbying. We argue that especially more resourceful and more highly affected organizations should be able to benefit from early lobbying. Using granular survey data on the timing of lobby efforts by interest groups on Covid-19 related policies in 10 European democracies, we test this novel theory. Our results show that timing is an important predictor of lobbying influence, but that interest groups which are hardly affected by a new policy cannot benefit from early mover advantages in the same way as affected organizations. Moreover, we give evidence for differences in first mover advantages depending on organizational staff resources.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-06-21T11:21:42Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221109441
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- Military Conscription and Nonviolent Resistance
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Authors: Matthew D. Cebul, Sharan Grewal
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Nonviolent campaigns against repressive regimes often turn on the military’s decision to either defend the ruler or make common cause with the ruled. Yet surprisingly little scholarship investigates opposition expectations for the military’s likely response to mass protest. We theorize that some determinants of the military’s willingness to repress are more observable to activists than others. In particular, we identify conscription as a highly salient indicator that soldiers will refuse to fire on protesters and hypothesize that nonviolent campaigns are more likely to materialize against regimes with conscripted armies than those with volunteer forces. We substantiate this theory with two sources of evidence: (1) a survey experiment conducted during the 2019 Algerian Revolution and (2) a cross-national analysis of the positive association between conscription and nonviolent campaign onset from 1945 to 2013.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-06-16T06:44:41Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211066209
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- Moral Logics of Support for Nonviolent Resistance: Evidence From a
Cross-National Survey Experiment-
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Authors: Sirianne Dahlum, Jonathan Pinckney, Tore Wig
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
An emerging consensus holds that nonviolent resistance campaigns are more successful than violent campaigns, partly because they attract more participants. Yet, we lack an understanding of whether and why nonviolent tactics attracts support. We propose two motivational logics that can explain support for nonviolence: An instrumentalist logic, whereby nonviolent resistance is preferred based on cost-benefit considerations, and an intrinsic logic where nonviolent resistance is preferred because of perceived inherent moral worth. To investigate the motivational pull of these two logics, we conduct a pre-registered survey experiment among more than 5000 respondents across 33 countries in fall 2019. We find that nonviolent tactics strongly increase movement support relative to violent tactics, and that the preference for nonviolence is primarily driven by intrinsic commitments to the moral worth of nonviolent resistance, rather than instrumental considerations.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-06-16T06:43:37Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221100198
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- Social, Formal, and Political Determinants of Trade Under Weak Rule of
Law: Experimental Evidence from Senegalese Firms-
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Authors: Abhit Bhandari
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
How do firms ensure secure exchange when the rule of law is weak and contracting institutions privilege the politically connected' In developing countries, firms may use social, formal, or political heuristics when selecting business partners, but how these factors jointly impact exchange remains understudied. In this article, I develop these theoretical mechanisms and test their impact with a conjoint experiment administered to 2389 formal and informal firms in Senegal. I find evidence in support of all three theories: To varying degrees, social, state, and political factors simultaneously impact firms’ sense of deal security and likelihood of exchange. The results demonstrate the substantial influence of formal predictors of exchange even in an overwhelmingly informal business environment, and also establish the countervailing effects of political connections on trade. These findings suggest that firms in developing countries must contend with an intricate political calculus to ensure their growth.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-06-13T03:41:44Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221089648
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- Networks of Grievances: Social Capital and Mainstream Party Decline
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Authors: Francesco Colombo, Elias Dinas
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Why does support for mainstream parties decline' A growing literature points to economic loss as a source of political resentment. We bring this explanation one step further. We posit that the local economy qualifies the role of social capital in forging systemic support. When the economy thrives, social capital buffers discontent via interpersonal interactions. When the economy declines it exacerbates discontent, leading to a diffusion of grievances. We test our “networks of grievances” hypothesis in two settings. We first test our theory in Italy, which offers individual-level information together with fine-grained municipality-level social capital data. Second, we test the mechanism underlying our theory combining survey and local administrative data across 18 European countries. The results suggest that “networks of grievances” operate as channels of political discussions with peers, converting retrospective evaluations into systemic discontent bringing non-mainstream parties into voters’ choice sets.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-06-13T02:54:24Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221100195
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- Globalization, Political Institutions, and Redistribution in Central and
Eastern Europe-
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Authors: Bilyana Petrova, Aleksandra Sznajder Lee
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
We examine the role of political institutions in mediating the effects of globalization on economic redistribution in Central and Eastern Europe. The region represents a least-likely case of welfare state resilience in the face of global economic pressures given its reliance on foreign capital and considerable domestic elite support for neoliberal recipes during the postcommunist transition. Yet, contrary to the race-to-the-bottom hypothesis and consistent with the compensation perspective, we find that economic openness is on average related to higher redistribution. Using the high-quality European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions database for 2004–2018, we find that this effect is particularly pronounced in institutional environments where votes are more accurately translated into legislative seats (low disproportionality) and where governments face greater scrutiny both during elections (vertical accountability) and between them (diagonal accountability). Thus, even in a region that adopted “competitive deregulation,” the downward pressures of globalization were limited by electoral pressures for economic redistribution.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-06-10T12:40:12Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221100199
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- Overestimation of the Level of Democracy Among Citizens in Nondemocracies
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Authors: Eddy S. F. Yeung
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Overestimation of the level of democracy is prevalent among citizens in nondemocracies. Despite such prevalence, no research to date has systematically documented this phenomenon and examined its determinants. Yet given the renewed interest in the role of legitimacy in authoritarian survival, studying whether and why this phenomenon arises is important to our understanding of authoritarian resilience. I argue that, even in the absence of democratic institutions in nondemocracies, autocrats exercise media control in order to boost their democratic legitimacy. This façade of democracy, in turn, benefits their survival. Combining media freedom data with individual survey response data that include over 30,000 observations from 22 nondemocracies, I find that overestimation of the level of democracy is greater in countries with stronger media control. But highly educated citizens overestimate less. These findings shed light on media control as a strategy for authoritarian survival, and have important implications for modernization theory.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-06-08T02:16:01Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221089647
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- Economic Shocks, Mobilization, and Regional Elite Splits
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Authors: Pau Vall-Prat
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
What are the origins of elite splits' Why do regional elites break away from central elites and develop regional parties' This paper contends that intra-elite differences are more likely to be politicized when an economic shock exacerbates pre-existing asymmetric economic preferences and disadvantaged elites can mobilize the electorate on the basis of identity. I employ constituency-level data from Catalonia spanning the late 19th and early 20th century to test which factors influenced regional elite decisions to form a regional elite political party. To understand elite divisions, I exploit a historical exogenous trade shock and its asymmetric impact within Catalonia, and the availability of identity-based mobilization agents. The results show that regional elite splits took place in areas more affected by the 1898 colonial trade shock and where elites had larger mobilization capacity.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-06-06T10:44:39Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221089641
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- Stalling the State: How Digital Platforms Contribute to and Profit From
Delays in the Enforcement and Adoption of Regulations-
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Authors: Joanna Mazur, Marcin Serafin
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
While it is often claimed that the pace of digital transformation is such that its own, often glacial changes do not allow the state to catch up, we argue that technological companies, with the help of some state actors, have been slowing the state down. To capture this phenomenon, we introduce the notion of stalling strategies. We argue that stalling strategies have allowed digital platforms to create time that they have spent generating revenue and accumulating platform power, which later protected them from state actions. Drawing on a case study of Uber in Poland and a number of shadow cases, we distinguish five stalling strategies: reinventing classifications, dragging out court proceedings, stealing the time of street-level bureaucrats, delaying new regulations, and taking time to (not) comply. By analyzing stalling strategies, this article contributes to discussions about the politics of platform capitalism, the temporality of digitalization, and institutional drift.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-06-03T11:41:03Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221089651
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- The Persistence of Rural Underdevelopment: Evidence from Land Reform in
Italy-
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Authors: Michael Albertus
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Patchiness in rural development remains a salient feature of many developed and developing countries that have struggled historically to overcome enormous national disparities in economic structure and well-being. This paper examines how one major, explicit rural policy ostensibly aimed at rural advancement—land reform—can impact uneven development in the countryside. It does so in Italy, where a major land reform redistributed large landholdings to individual peasant families after World War II. Based on original fine-grained data on land redistribution and a geographical regression discontinuity analysis that takes advantage of Italy’s zonal land reform approach, I find that greater land reform fueled comparative underdevelopment and precarity locally over the long term. Several related mechanisms delayed development in land reform zones: a slower transition out of agriculture, lower labor mobility, and an aging demographic. These are generalizable mechanisms that could operate in other cases of land reform beyond Italy.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-05-31T10:19:19Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221089653
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- The Electoral Consequences of International Migration in Sending
Countries: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe-
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Authors: Junghyun Lim
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
This paper examines the political attributes of emigrants and how their departure affects the electoral outcomes in their home countries. I argue that emigrants are different from those who remain in their political preferences as well as economic attributes, such that large-scale emigration changes the distribution of voters in sending countries. Emigration can also directly affect the policy preferences of individuals who stay in their home countries. I test these arguments in seven Central and Eastern European countries, using individual-level surveys and region-level data on emigration and elections. To address potential endogeneity issues, I use instrumental variable analysis, leveraging the surge of Polish emigration to the United Kingdom after the EU enlargement. I find that emigrants from Central and Eastern Europe tend to be younger, highly educated, and politically more progressive and that the vote shares of far-right parties are larger in regions with higher emigration rates. Also, I find that exposure to large-scale emigration affects the vote choices of individuals who remain.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-05-30T04:44:23Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221089646
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- Covert Confiscation: How Governments Differ in Their Strategies of
Expropriation-
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Authors: Jane Esberg, Rebecca Perlman
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
A substantial literature concludes that democratic-type institutions curb governments’ propensity to expropriate foreign direct investment. However, little attention has been paid to the strategies of expropriation regimes employ. We theorize that more politically constrained regimes will utilize expropriation methods that help them overcome institutional impediments. Using data on expropriations in developing countries between 1960 and 2014, we show that rather than rely on the most direct and overt forms of expropriation, constrained regimes tend to use more indirect and covert methods, such as forced sale or contract renegotiation, tools which can be harder to identify, easier to justify, and frequently face lower legislative approval hurdles. Indeed, while more politically constrained regimes are less likely to overtly expropriate foreign investment than less constrained regimes, they are nearly as likely to do so covertly, introducing new questions about the extent to which institutional constraints really translate into improved protections for foreign investors.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-05-27T12:35:28Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221089650
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- Varieties of Ambiguity: How do Voters Evaluate Ambiguous Policy
Statements'-
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Authors: Mohamed Nasr
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Scholars voice increasing interest in strategic ambiguity—a strategy whereby parties intentionally conceal their positions on divisive issues. Scholars contend that strategic ambiguity can help European parties broaden their electoral appeals. Although they identify several tactics and styles of position-blurring, the observational literature has yet failed to capture different variants of ambiguous rhetoric, let alone evaluate their effect on the vote. In this article, I rely on cross-country survey experiments that utilize representative samples of around 22,000 respondents from 14 European countries to evaluate the effect of four varieties of ambiguity: vagueness, ambivalence, flip-flopping, and negative messaging. I investigate the impact of ambiguous rhetoric vis-a-vis the context of competition facing the party. The findings reveal that the consequences of ambiguity vary by the actual form it takes and the context of competition facing the party. First, among the varieties, vague and ambivalent variants were superior to negative messaging or flip-flopping. Second, ambiguity helped the party in the absence of popular policy offers in the party system, while it backfired when competitors explicitly agreed with the voter. The findings imply that ambiguity is generally a useful strategy, but its benefits do not extend to rhetorical tactics that harm the party’s valence image.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-05-26T12:08:58Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221089652
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- Cross-National Social Influence: How Foreign Votes Can Affect Domestic
Public Opinion-
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Authors: Giorgio Malet
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Do voters follow the preferences of foreign mass collectives' Despite the growing research on policy diffusion and theoretical debates on the emergence of transnational public spheres, we know little about the impact of foreign votes on domestic public opinion. Yet, the results of elections and referendums may provide a signal to people in other countries and trigger a process of contagion. This study leverages the coincidence of the 2005 French referendum on the European Constitution and the fieldwork of two surveys to analyze the causal effect of cross-national social influence. Results show that the French rejection increased public opposition to the Constitution abroad. A process of cognitive activation explains why knowledgeable voters also grew Eurosceptic after the vote. These findings attest to the interdependence of national publics and contribute to our understanding of mechanisms of social contagion.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-05-26T11:58:54Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221088846
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- Pushing Boundaries: How Lawmakers Shape Judicial Decision-Making
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Authors: Philipp Schroeder
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Existing literature highlights that constitutional courts influence lawmakers’ policy choices without actively intervening in the policymaking process. Lawmakers know that courts may scrutinize their acts and have incentives to amend their policies to pre-empt judicial interventions. However, evidence suggests that lawmakers are not always prepared to sacrifice policy objectives to avoid censure from courts. I develop a formal model showing how lawmakers who provoke confrontations with courts shape judicial decision-making. Drawing on an original dataset of German federal laws adopted between 1977 and 2015 that were reviewed by the German Federal Constitutional Court, I then show that the Court moderated its strike rate of laws when lawmakers had dismissed credible advice that their acts were unconstitutional. The theoretical argument and empirical evidence indicate that courts are more likely to show deference to lawmakers who push constitutional boundaries in their policy choices.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-05-26T01:07:37Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221089649
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- The Way we Were: How Histories of Co-Governance Alleviate Partisan
Hostility-
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Authors: Will Horne, James Adams, Noam Gidron
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Comparative politics scholars argue that consensual democratic institutions encourage power-sharing that promotes “kinder, gentler” politics. We uncover one reason why this is the case: elite inter-party cooperation in consensual systems is associated with reduced inter-party hostility in the mass public. This is because governing parties’ supporters feel much more warmly toward their coalition partner(s) than we can explain based on policy agreement alone. Moreover, these warm affective evaluations linger long after the coalition itself has dissolved. We substantiate our arguments via analyses of CSES survey data from 19 Western democracies between 1996 and 2017, showing that current and past co-governance is associated with substantially warmer inter-party affective evaluations. This implies that electoral systems which encourage coalition governance may defuse partisan hostility.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-05-21T04:09:28Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221100197
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- Social Brokerage: Accountability and the Social Life of Information
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Authors: Gabrielle Kruks-Wisner
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Social accountability initiatives seek to empower citizens to hold officials to account between and beyond elections, yet often meet with mixed results. This article highlights a neglected dimension in the study of accountability: intermediation by brokers who share and frame information. In contrast to literature that focuses on political brokers in clientelist networks, I introduce the concept of social brokerage: efforts to motivate and to link action by citizens and officials, without the expectation of an electoral return. I illustrate the practice of social brokerage in India, through study of a network of citizen journalists who attempt to mobilize citizen claim-making and to encourage official responsiveness to those claims. I argue that effective social brokerage requires both vernacularization (giving information meaning in local contexts) and interlocution (speaking to and between multiple audiences). This, in turn, rests upon a powerful—but often elusive—combination of community embeddedness and ties to bureaucracy.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-05-18T07:58:10Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221089644
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- Imperial Rule and Long-Run Development: Evidence on the Role of Human
Capital in Ottoman Europe-
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Authors: Bogdan G. Popescu, Mircea Popa
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
This study examines the effects of Ottoman imperial rule on long-run development in Europe. Using a novel geographical dataset that tracks territorial changes at the sub-national level over 600 years, we identify a negative effect of Ottoman rule on modern economic performance. Contemporary survey data provides strong support for a causal mechanism involving reduced human capital accumulation. This insight is confirmed by a regression discontinuity analysis using historical data from Romania. We uncover large causal effects of Ottoman rule on literacy rates from the 19th century, which persisted throughout the 20th century. We argue that the late adoption of the printing press in the empire was an important determinant of low human capital accumulation and illustrate this using data on the spread of the printing press.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-05-16T04:33:00Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211060283
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- How Mechanization Shapes Coups
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Authors: Ioannis Choulis, Marius Mehrl, Abel Escribà-Folch, Tobias Böhmelt
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Civil-military relations are characterized by a fundamental dilemma. To lower coup risk, leaders frequently empower the military, which satisfies the armed forces with the status quo and enables them to fight against threats challenging the civilian leadership. Simultaneously, a too powerful military itself constitutes a potential threat that is capable of overthrowing the government. Our research adds to this debate by examining the impact of mechanization, that is, the degree to which militaries rely on armored vehicles relative to manpower, on coup risk. We discuss several (opposing) mechanisms before developing the theoretical expectation that higher levels of mechanization should lower the likelihood of a coup due to the increased costs of coup execution. Empirical evidence strongly supports this claim and, thus, contributes to our understanding of the emergence of coups as an essential breakdown of civil-military relations, while adding to the debate surrounding the many trade-offs leaders face when coup-proofing their regimes.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-05-13T12:33:33Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221100194
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- Interpersonal Resources and Insider/Outsider Dynamics in Party Office
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Authors: Javier Martínez-Cantó, Tània Verge
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
While the multiple barriers women face to attain public office have been vastly documented, the operation of insider/outsider dynamics within political parties’ top decision-making bodies remains largely under-researched. This article provides new theoretical and empirical insights on how interpersonal resources create ingroups and outgroups in parties’ national executive committees—the body that manages the day-to-day functioning of the extra-parliamentary party organization. Our comparative analysis of Spanish political parties in the period 1975–2020 documents that interpersonal resources are unevenly distributed across gender. Most crucially, we show that these resources play out differently for women and men members, with embeddedness in party networks only helping the latter attain positional power and extend their tenure in party office. These heterogeneous effects suggest that top decision-making party bodies do not just reflect existing gender inequalities but reinforce them in significant ways, rendering women member outsiders on the inside.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-05-11T11:08:14Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221089642
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- Patrimony at Risk: Market Uncertainty and Right-Wing Voting
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Authors: Anton Brännlund
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
The current literature suggests that financial assets push investors to vote for conservative parties given that right-wing policies are said to generate higher returns. Another popular argument is that wealth reduces demand for welfare spending given that private assets can be used as a substitute for social benefits. What I ask in this study is if asset owners always support right-wing parties and a trimmed welfare state. I argue that owners of financial assets become less tempted by free-market policy offerings when there is uncertainty in financial markets. The dot-com bubble, the financial crisis, and most recently the massive impact on financial markets of the coronavirus show that savings can evaporate in a matter of days. I show that the support for right-wing parties decreases in areas with much financial assets under such conditions.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-05-06T04:11:51Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211060267
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- Declared Support and Clientelism
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Authors: Simeon Nichter, Salvatore Nunnari
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Recent studies of clientelism predominantly focus on how elites use rewards to influence vote choices and turnout. This article shifts attention toward citizens and their choices beyond the ballot box. Under what conditions does clientelism influence citizens’ decisions to express political preferences publicly' When voters can obtain post-election benefits by declaring support for victorious candidates, their choices to display political paraphernalia on their homes or bodies may reflect more than just political preferences. We argue that various factors—such as the size of rewards and punishments, the competitiveness of the election, and whether multiple candidates employ clientelism—affect citizens’ propensity to declare support in response to clientelist inducements. Building on insights from fieldwork, formal analyses reveal how and why such factors can distort patterns of political expression observed during electoral campaigns. We conduct an experiment in Brazil, which predominantly corroborates predictions about declared support and clientelism.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-04-13T02:41:40Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211066208
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- Violence and Business Interest in Social Welfare: Evidence from Mexico
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Authors: Bradley E. Holland, Viridiana Rios
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Countries in the Global South are particularly vulnerable to social and political violence. This paper suggests that such violence makes certain recalcitrant economic interests more open to taxes and spending on social welfare. Using results from a survey experiment of business owners and operators in Mexico, we show that relative to more innocuous institutional weaknesses, concerns over violence generally increase support for anti-poverty spending and decrease support for tax cuts. To build a theory, we explore heterogeneous effects and textual data. The findings suggest that business interests see anti-poverty spending as a tool for shoring up costs of violence in consumer markets, with some leaders even extending support to welfare-enhancing taxes. However, violence can create challenges in labor markets that increase operational costs, leading some business interests to resist tax policies that ask them to help fund social programs.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-03-31T01:28:19Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211060272
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- Information and Financialization: Credit Markets as a New Source of
Inequality-
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Authors: Torben Iversen, Philipp Rehm
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Driven by financialization and rising demand for credit, household sector debt in OECD countries has risen sharply. We argue that this rise in private debt has become a significant driver of inequality because access to, and the terms of, credit vary by the risk of default, which is closely tied to income. The effect is magnified by a trove of new data that allow lenders to more accurately assess individual risks, thereby linking interest rates more closely to the underlying risk distribution. This inequalizing logic is conditioned by social transfers and by government regulation of financial markets. We test our model with data on mortgage interest rates and access to credit, using the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (FM/FM) in the United States (resulting in regulatory change) and the Hartz-IV reform in Germany (resulting in changes to social transfers) as exogenous changes in important parameters of our model.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-03-28T11:37:43Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221074286
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- The Politics of Legislative Expansion in Africa
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Authors: Thalia Gerzso, Nicolas van de Walle
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
The number of seats in national legislatures around the world rarely changes. Yet, in Africa, a substantial number of countries have regularly increased the size of their legislatures, and these increases have become more common in recent years. Previous research on political offices in Africa’s electoral autocracies has suggested that their numbers and increases are largely motivated by patronage and clientelist considerations. Is this also the case for national legislatures' Curiously, very little political science scholarship exists on legislature size, either in Africa or the rest of the world. Using a mixture of descriptive statistics to present a new database, as well as econometrics and three case studies, we find that legislative expansion can be linked to executive branch manipulation. Presidents have found it politically useful to expand the size of African legislatures to weaken and/or control it.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-03-25T09:17:02Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221074277
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- Frightened Mandarins: The Adverse Effects of Fighting Corruption on Local
Bureaucracy-
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Authors: Erik H. Wang
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Canonical theories of bureaucracy demonstrate the need for enhanced monitoring in government hierarchies. I argue that intensive top-down monitoring may reduce the productivity of bureaucrats by frightening them away from the informal practices that they would otherwise rely on when completing daily tasks. Utilizing a unique dataset of sub-provincial inspections in China’s recent anti-corruption campaign, I identify this “chilling effect” by exploiting variation in the timing of inspections from 2012 to 2017. I show that these anti-corruption activities lower the area of land development projects proposed by bureaucrats. Causal mediation analyses with investigation data and original measures of corruption potential reveal that these effects are unlikely driven by reduction of actual corruption. Extension analyses suggest similar consequences on revenue collection and environmental regulation. Although scholars of state-building equate low corruption with effective bureaucracy, these findings present a paradox where intensive state-led efforts to lower corruption may further undermine bureaucrats’ productivity.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-03-11T04:39:35Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211060276
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- Policing in a Post-Conflict State: Evidence from Uganda
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Authors: David A. Dow
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
How do governments in post-conflict settings provide for policing within their countries' I argue that leaders respond to both electoral concerns and security threats in shaping the geographic provision of policing infrastructure. Focusing on Uganda, I contend that the territorial expansion of policing has followed a distinct political logic. First, I use panel data on police infrastructure to demonstrate increased construction in counties with previously lower electoral support for the incumbent regime. Additionally, I find that counties with violence are more likely to experience increases in construction, but especially in areas where the incumbent has more support. Finally, I show that (1) proximity to police infrastructure is associated with worse individual perceptions of the police and (2) that increased construction of police infrastructure has large significant effects on reducing voter turnout while increasing vote share for the incumbent president. These findings have important implications for post-conflict reconstruction, stability, and violence.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-03-04T02:23:25Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211047398
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- From Drug Lords to Police State: The Effects of Order Transition on Local
Economies-
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Authors: Leonardo Gentil-Fernandes, João V. Guedes-Neto, José Incio
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
What is the effect on local economies when the state intervenes to capture its own territories back from non-state actors' In 2008, the government of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, implemented a policy to take control of favelas that were previously dominated by organized crime groups (OCGs). We use day and night luminosity to assess the effects of this program on economic growth. The difference-in-differences design shows that state intervention has a significant and negative average treatment effect on the favelas that received the intervention. We further test a mechanism to explain this economic downturn: institutional replacement. Based on crime data, we demonstrate that this effect is caused by the destruction of local markets, especially illicit activities. The data highlight the perils of order transition, even when OCGs are removed by state actors. Furthermore, this paper reinforces the need for policies that are mindful of the externalities of institutional shifts.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-03-03T05:56:34Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211060273
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- Does Compulsory Voting Affect How Voters Choose' A Test Using a
Combined Conjoint and Regression Discontinuity Analysis-
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Authors: Shane P. Singh
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Authors writing since the late 1800s have argued that the requirement to vote can transform citizens, especially by inducing political sophistication. This implies the criteria that compelled voters use to choose between candidates will differ from those who are not obligated to turn out. To test this, I amalgamate a conjoint experiment with a regression discontinuity design, exploiting age-based cutoffs in the application of compulsory voting. This allows me to causally identify the impact of compulsory voting on the attributes individuals take into account when choosing between candidates. While I recover compulsory voting’s upward impact on turnout, I find no evidence that compelled and voluntary voters differ in how they select candidates.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-03-01T11:39:25Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211066219
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- Foreign Anti-Mainstream Propaganda and Democratic Publics
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Authors: Matthias Mader, Nikolay Marinov, Harald Schoen
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Illiberal regimes use overt and covert political communication to influence public opinion in democracies. We present an argument about how such propaganda impacts targeted publics. We posit that effectiveness depends on whether the source of the message is revealed, on the nature of the issue, and on individual characteristics of the recipients. We test these propositions in Germany, in the context of Kremlin messaging, using eight survey experiments administered to a large sample of German voters (n = 2, 303). Citizens who mistrust the government, believe in conspiracy theories, or are generally disconnected from politics are vulnerable to propaganda warfare that involves anti-mainstream messaging, while the rest of the populace is not. At the same time, providing a pro-Western, mainstream viewpoint and outing the Russian source are not generally effective countermeasures. We discuss the implications of illiberal regime communication for information wars between states and for the internal workings of democratic politics.*
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-03-01T06:41:18Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211060277
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- Who Is Credible' Government Popularity and the Catalytic Effect of IMF
Lending-
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Authors: Sujeong Shim
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
In this paper, I explain variations in international investors’ reactions to International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs. Investors react favorably if a borrowing government is credibly committed to implementing essential IMF conditionality. Instead of engaging complex information processing about economic reform, however, investors rely on a heuristic device to assess the borrower’s domestic political conditions. I argue that a borrowing government’s popularity is an important cue for investors to assess the prospect of an IMF program. Investors associate higher government popularity with better implementation of the program and react more favorably to more popular borrowers. Using annual data from up to 52 emerging market economies from 1998 to 2017, I find robust statistical evidence supporting these claims: an IMF program alone does not restore investor confidence. Rather, an IMF program carried out by a strong government does. My findings have important implications for the study of global financial governance and credible commitment.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-02-08T09:09:35Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211060280
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- Oil “Rents” and Political Development: What Do We Really Know About
the Curse of Natural Resources'-
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Authors: Sarah M. Brooks, Marcus J. Kurtz
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Research on the political implications of oil wealth is now over two decades old, and yet still unresolved. Despite many advances in this literature, a core concept—resource rents—remains under-theorized, and even less well measured. This mis-measurement, we contend, has direct and significant consequences for theoretical findings on the resource curse. Although rents refer to excessive profits, analyses to date have not directly or indirectly focused on the profitability of oil extraction; instead they rely more often on estimates of gross receipts or exports of natural resources. The largely untested assumption that oil sales consistently produce enormous profits has been the bridge used to treat these as measures of rents, even as the empirical foundations for this claim are shaky. In contrast, we measure the difficulty of oil production using data from over 3800 major oil fields around the globe between 1980 and 2012 to more accurately estimate the income generated by oil production and to calibrate its rent-generating potential using important correlates of its cost of production. The results show that where oil’s cost of production is low, and its profitability high, pernicious regime outcomes are observed in keeping with resource curse claims. However, as production shifts to more challenging sources, oil production loses this association and may well at the extremes be associated with modestly more democratic outcomes. In other words, it is only “easy oil” that may be a curse for democratic development.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-02-03T03:30:54Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211060281
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- How Soft Propaganda Persuades
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Authors: Daniel C. Mattingly, Elaine Yao
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
An influential body of scholarship argues that authoritarian regimes design “hard” propaganda that is intentionally heavy-handed in order to signal regime power. In this study, by contrast, we link the power of propaganda to the emotional power of “soft” propaganda such as television dramas and viral social media content. We conduct a series of experiments in which we expose over 6800 respondents in China to real propaganda videos drawn from television dramas, state-backed social media accounts, and state-run newscasts, each containing nationalist messages favored by the Chinese Communist Party. In contrast to theories that propaganda is unpersuasive, we show that propaganda effectively manipulates anger as well as anti-foreign sentiment and behavior, with heightened anti-foreign attitudes persisting up to a week. However, we also find that nationalist propaganda has no effect on perceptions of Chinese government performance or on self-reported willingness to protest against the state.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-02-02T05:30:32Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211047403
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- Negative Campaigning and Vote Choice in Europe: How Do Different Partisan
Groups React to Campaign Attacks'-
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Authors: Zeynep Somer-Topcu, Daniel Weitzel
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Parties spend parts of their campaigns criticizing other parties’ performance and characteristics, such as honesty, integrity, and unity. These attacks aim to negatively affect the target parties’ electoral performance. But do they work' While attacks are informative, we argue that how voters react to negative campaigning depends on their partisanship. While the target’s copartisans are more likely to get mobilized in favor of their party, the attacker’s copartisans are expected to punish the target due to their respective partisan motivations. We expect null effects for attacks for partisans of third parties as well as nonpartisans. Combining a new dataset on campaign rhetoric with survey data from eight European countries, we show support for most but not all of our expectations. These results have important implications for the electoral campaigns literature.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-02-01T07:05:18Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221074283
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- Violence Against Politicians, Negative Campaigning, and Public Opinion:
Evidence From Poland-
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Authors: Krzysztof Krakowski, Juan S. Morales, Dani Sandu
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
It is commonly viewed that violence against politicians increases support for the victim’s party. We revisit this conjecture drawing on evidence from an assassination of an opposition politician in Poland. First, we analyze engagement with Twitter content posted by opposition and government politicians using a difference-in-differences framework. Second, we use a public opinion survey collected in the days around the attack and compare party preferences of respondents interviewed just before and respondents interviewed just after the attack. Our results reveal decreased support for the victim’s (opposition) party relative to support for the government. To explain this finding, we show that the opposition antagonized the public by engaging in negative campaigning against the government over their politician’s assassination. Content analysis of tweets and news media confirms that citizens punished the opposition for their negative campaigning after the violence. Tentative evidence suggests that these effects could have had long-run political consequences.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-01-30T09:57:56Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211066211
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- Strategic Uncertainty and Elite Defections in Electoral Autocracies: A
Cross-National Analysis-
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Authors: Adrián del Río
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Defections within the ruling elite often endanger authoritarian rule, emboldening opposition groups and paving the way for regime breakdown. Yet, the consequences of elite defections are better understood than their causes. Why do some authoritarian regimes experience more defections to the opposition than others' This paper develops a theory of the origins of elite defection and tests it using a novel dataset based on the political careers of 15,013 legislative deputies and ministers in 12 electoral autocracies. The theory predicts that regime elites defect when there are greater opportunities to capitalize on the discontent of other regime elites and voters. Regimes with weak party mechanisms that are also supported by many factions experience more defections. Finally, defections increase during economic downturns and when the government’s control of mass media declines, which helps potential defectors coordinate with anti-regime voters.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-01-29T11:28:16Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140221074273
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- The Search for Spices and Souls: Catholic Missions as Colonial State in
the Philippines-
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Authors: Dean Dulay
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
A growing literature posits that colonial Christian missions brought schooling to the colonies, improving human capital in ways that persist to this day. But in some places, they did much more. This paper argues that colonial Catholic missions in the Philippines functioned as state-builders, establishing law and order and building fiscal and infrastructural capacities in territories they controlled. The mission-as-state was the result of a bargain between the Catholic missions and the Spanish colonial government: missionaries converted the population and engaged in state-building, whereas the colonial government reaped the benefits of state expansion while staying in the capital. Exposure to these Catholic missions-as-state then led to long-run improvements in state capacity and development. I find that municipalities that had a Catholic mission have higher levels of state capacity and development today. A variety of mechanisms—religious competition, education, urbanization, and structural transformation—explain these results.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-01-25T06:39:02Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211066222
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- Conceptualizing and Measuring Citizens’ Preferences for Democracy:
Taking Stock of Three Decades of Research in a Fragmented Field-
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Authors: Pascal D. König, Markus B. Siewert, Kathrin Ackermann
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Research dealing with citizens’ preferences for different conceptions of democracy has grown and diversified greatly. This has resulted in a highly fragmented field in which empirical evidence cannot easily be integrated into a consistent larger picture. This systematic review takes stock of this research to uncover the roots of existing inconsistencies and to show how future research can avoid them. It maps three decades of research regarding conceptualizations and measurement approaches that have been chosen to study citizens’ preferences for democracy. By systematically carving out the variation in the chosen approaches, the review shows why existing research can hardly add up to a clear diagnosis regarding what kind of democracy citizens prefer. A critical discussion based on this review highlights that cumulative research will require a stronger conceptual and methodological integration between different strands in the literature.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-01-24T10:04:30Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211066213
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- Voting in Clientelistic Social Networks: Evidence From the Philippines*
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Authors: Nico Ravanilla, Michael Davidson, Allen Hicken
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
In clientelistic environments, voters want to know which politicians are most likely to deliver on targeted benefits. We argue that in these contexts, voters use their social proximity with candidates as heuristics to inform vote choice. To test our theory, we rely on local naming conventions to reconstruct family networks spanning one whole city in the Philippines and assess blood and marriage links between voters and local candidates. We then collect survey data on pre-election candidate leanings and actual voting behavior of 894 randomly drawn voters. We show that the degrees of separation between voters and candidates explain not only aggregate electoral outcomes, as previous studies have found, but also individual vote choice, controlling for pre-election leanings. We demonstrate that this is because private inducements are channeled through family networks. These findings highlight the electoral importance of social proximity with politicians as an information shortcut when voters are choosing whom to support at the polls.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-01-24T05:39:49Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211060275
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- Staying Out of Trouble: Criminal Cases Against Russian Mayors
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Authors: Noah Buckley, Ora John. Reuter, Michael Rochlitz, Anton Aisin
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Although repression against elites is a common occurrence in authoritarian regimes, we know little about which elites are targeted. This paper uses an original dataset on the prosecution of mayors in large Russian cities to examine the factors that make elites more likely to be arrested. We argue that in electoral authoritarian regimes like Russia, regime leaders are reluctant to arrest popular officials. Such officials command political capital that is useful to the regime, and arrests of prominent officials can produce popular backlash. We examine this argument using an original dataset on all arrests of municipal leaders in Russia’s 221 largest cities between 2002 and 2018. We find that mayors who won their elections by large margins are less likely to be arrested. In addition, we document several other substantively important patterns: (1) a mayor’s professional background is not related to the likelihood of arrest, (2) opposition mayors are four times more likely to be arrested, and (3) mobilization of votes for the regime is not protective against arrest.JEL Classifications P16, P30, R59
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-01-21T04:16:49Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211047399
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- Sovereign Risk and Government Change: Elections, Ideology and Experience
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Authors: Sarah M. Brooks, Raphael Cunha, Layna Mosley
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Global capital markets can react dramatically to elections in developing countries, affecting governments’ access to finance and sometimes setting off broader crises. We argue, contrary to some conventional wisdom, that investors do not systematically react to the election of left-leaning parties and candidates. Government ideology is often an imprecise heuristic, given the diversity in policies among parties, especially those on the left. We therefore expect that neither elections generally, nor elections that produce specific partisan outcomes, are associated with significant changes in sovereign financing costs. Yet we also predict that the election of left-leaning parties will generate volatility in sovereign bond markets, reflecting investors’ uncertainty over future policy outcomes. This volatility is especially pronounced when new governments take office; over time, however, government policy performance enables investors to make increasingly precise estimates of political risk. Volatility has implications for the real economy, as well as for governments’ ability to manage their debt. We test, and find support for, our core expectations using monthly data on sovereign bond spreads and credit default swap prices for 74 developing countries from 1994–2015.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-01-20T07:44:19Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211047407
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- Electoral Rules, Women’s Representation and the Qualification of
Politicians-
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Authors: Paola Profeta, Eleanor F. Woodhouse
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Proportional electoral rules are associated with more substantial women’s representation than majoritarian ones. To provide causal evidence that electoral rules affect women’s representation and the qualification of politicians, we collect panel data on the universe of Italian politicians from all levels of government over the period 1987–2013 and analyse an Italian reform which, in 2005, changed the electoral rule for national elections from (mostly) majoritarian to proportional, but did not affect subnational level elections. We find that this reform increased the number of women elected by 5%, while not decreasing the overall qualification levels of politicians, measured by the level of education and political experience. We provide evidence that the highest qualification women are not elected and that the overall qualification of elected politicians could have increased (rather than remain constant) if the best women candidates had been elected.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-01-20T01:47:35Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211047414
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- The Political Legacies of Rebel Rule: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
in Côte d’Ivoire-
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Authors: Philip A. Martin, Giulia Piccolino, Jeremy S. Speight
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
How does exposure to rebel rule affect citizens’ political attitudes after armed conflicts end' We combine original survey data from Côte d’Ivoire with a natural experiment based on the arbitrary location of a ceasefire boundary to estimate the effects of exposure to rebel rule by the Forces Nouvelles (FN) on Ivorians’ sense of democratic citizenship. Our findings show that individuals in communities ruled by the FN held more negative attitudes about local government institutions 7 years after the reunification of the country, held weaker commitments to civic obligations, and were more likely to condone extralegal actions. The effects of rebel rule are larger than the effects of extreme lived poverty and appear among both rebel coethnics and non-coethnics. Using qualitative and survey evidence, we propose three theoretical mechanisms to explain why exposure to rebel rule weakened citizen-state relations: disrupted norms of compliance with state-like authorities, the formation of local self-help institutions leading to negative assessments of the redeployed state, and resentment due to unmet expectations of economic recovery. Our study informs debates about the links between war, citizenship, and statebuilding.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-01-18T04:54:21Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211047409
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- Opening Pandora’s Box' Joint Sovereignty and the Rise of EU Agencies
with Operational Tasks-
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Authors: Christian Freudlsperger, Adina Maricut-Akbik, Marta Migliorati
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
This article problematises the proliferation of European Union (EU) agencies with operational tasks as a new phenomenon capturing the exercise of joint sovereignty in European integration. While joint decision-making has been a feature of EU politics for decades, joint sovereignty is a broader category that additionally involves the creation of EU bodies able to intervene ‘on the ground’ alongside national public actors. We argue that the choice for joint sovereignty opens a Pandora’s box of implementation deficiencies which undermine the ability of both national and supranational actors to conduct operational activities effectively. We subsequently identify two frequent dysfunctions in policy implementation and connect them to ambiguity and conflict at the decision-making stage. Empirically, we illustrate the systemic link between decision-making and implementation problems in the functioning of two agencies with operational tasks active in the fields of border management (Frontex) and police cooperation (Europol).
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-01-17T02:06:20Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211066223
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- Work and Demand Making: Productionist and Consumptionist Politics in Latin
America-
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Authors: Brian Palmer-Rubin, Ruth Berins Collier
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
How does the world of work in Latin America affect the way workers act to defend their interests' To what extent have “productionist” demands, those concerning jobs, work conditions, and wages, which are highly salient across the region, been “displaced” by consumptionist or political demands' While the literature has distinguished formal and informal work grosso modo, we explore individual traits of work, which cross-cut the formal-informal distinction. Analyzing survey data from four Latin American capital cities, we find, not surprisingly, that both work-based atomization and insecurity depress demand making in the work arena. But these traits of work also affect demand making on the state, albeit in somewhat different ways. Insecurity is associated with a shift from productionist to consumptionist and political demands, while atomization is associated with a more generalized demobilization across issues. These findings have implications for the representation of worker interests in light of current labor market restructuring and raise the question if labor can reclaim an important voice in that restructuring process.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-01-14T03:38:30Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211060282
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- How Voters Respond to Presidential Assaults on Checks and Balances:
Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Turkey-
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Authors: Aytuğ Şaşmaz, Alper H. Yagci, Daniel Ziblatt
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Why do voters support executive aggrandizement' One possible answer is that they do so because they think this will ease their preferred leader’s hand in putting their partisan vision into action, provided that the leader will continue winning elections. We study this phenomenon through a survey experiment in Turkey, by manipulating voters’ perceptions about the potential results of the first presidential election after a constitutional referendum of executive aggrandizement. We find that voters from both sides display what we call “elastic support” for executive aggrandizement; that is, they change previously revealed constitutional preferences in response to varying winning chances. This elasticity increases not only when citizens feel greater social distance to perceived political “others” (i.e., affective polarization) but also when voters are concerned about economic management in a potential post-incumbent era. Our findings contribute to the literature on how polarization and economic anxiety contribute to executive aggrandizement and democratic backsliding.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-01-13T09:15:29Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211066216
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- Collusion, Co-Optation, or Evasion: The Politics of Drug Trafficking
Violence in Central America-
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Authors: Laura R. Blume
First page: 1366
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Why do drug traffickers sometimes decide to use violence, but other times demonstrate restraint' Building on recent work on the politics of drug violence, this article explores how Central American drug trafficking organizations’ strategies impact their use of violence. I argue that three inter-related political factors—corruption, electoral competition, and the politicization of the security apparatus—collectively determine the type of relationship between traffickers and the state that will emerge. That relationship, in turn, determines the primary strategy used by traffickers in that country. Drawing on over two years of comparative ethnographic fieldwork in key transshipment points along the Caribbean coast of Central America, I show how co-optation strategies in Honduras have resulted in high levels of violence, evasion strategies in Costa Rica have produced moderate levels of violence, and collusion strategies in Nicaragua have generated the lowest levels of drug-related violence.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-01-05T02:07:47Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211066218
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- Moralizing Immigration: Political Framing, Moral Conviction, and
Polarization in the United States and Denmark-
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Authors: Kristina B. Simonsen, Bart Bonikowski
First page: 1403
Abstract: Comparative Political Studies, Ahead of Print.
Morally charged rhetoric is commonplace in political discourse on immigration but scholars have not examined how it affects divisions over the issue among the public. To address this gap, we employ preregistered survey experiments in two countries where anti-immigration rhetoric has been prominent: the United States and Denmark. We demonstrate that exposure to moralized messages leads respondents to place greater moral weight on their existing immigration opinions and become more averse to political leaders and, in the United States, social interaction partners who espouse opposite beliefs. This suggests that political moralization contributes to moral conflict and affective polarization. We find no evidence, however, that moral framing produces attitudinal polarization—that is, more extreme immigration opinions. Our study helps make sense of the heightened intensity of anti-immigrant politics even when attitudes are stable. It also suggests a promising avenue for comparative research on affective polarization by shifting the focus from partisanship to the moralization of existing issue disagreements.
Citation: Comparative Political Studies
PubDate: 2022-01-12T03:14:11Z
DOI: 10.1177/00104140211060284
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