Similar Journals
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Cambridge journal of evidence-based policing
Number of Followers: 61  Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)ISSN (Print) 2520-1344 - ISSN (Online) 2520-1336 Published by Springer-Verlag  [2468 journals]
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- Consistency of Supervisory Interpretations of Stop-Search Justification in
London: A Vignette Assessment Analysis-
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Abstract: Research Question Do police supervisors reach different conclusions about the legality of a decision to stop and search in survey vignettes using similar facts with the ethnicity of subjects described as either black or white' Data We utilize a vignette survey design, presenting 15 real-world stop and search examples from within the South Basic Command Unit policing area to 118 frontline uniformed supervisors (Sergeants and Inspectors) in the Metropolitan Police Service of London. Methods We introduce a randomised characteristic assignment of the ethnicity of the subject featured in the vignette to compare officer decision-making when the suspect is black or white. Using both Likert scale and free-text responses, a combination of descriptive statistics, inferential methods, and text mining is applied to the survey data. Findings We found no substantive difference in the justification of stop and search powers by officers between white suspects and black suspects. We did find substantial variability in supervisor assessments of whether vignettes provided sufficient legal grounds for conducting a stop and search. Conclusions Within the limits of the methodology, we conclude that there is no racial disparity in perceptions of legal thresholds for conducting searches across a range of circumstances. We must also conclude that there is a substantial range of opinion regarding different specific circumstances that are understood to provide a threshold of sufficient evidence to search.
PubDate: 2023-08-04
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- Using a Randomised Controlled Trial to Test the Effectiveness of a
Simplified Notice of Police Bail-
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Abstract: Purpose To test whether a simplified notice of police bail can increase court attendance in New Zealand by increasing defendant awareness of upcoming court hearings. Methods We designed a simplified notice of police bail using principles from behavioural science. The simplified notice reduced the required reading age of the front page by 2 years and included a clear call to action and simplified information. We rolled the notice out across six police stations in New Zealand and tested the impact with a cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) (n = 1542, with clustering by custody officer). We also conducted interviews with defendants and staff, and conducted a survey with staff, to gain additional insights into the barriers to court attendance. Results Our results suggest the simplified notice increased court attendance by 3.6 percentage points (p < 0.1). If scaled throughout New Zealand, this would translate to around 1400 more defendants attending court each year due to the new notice. Our qualitative findings highlight a number of barriers to attendance not addressed by the simplified notice, including transport barriers, childcare barriers, and waiting times at court. Conclusions A simplified notice of police bail can increase court attendance by increasing defendants’ awareness of their court requirements. There are a range of additional barriers to attendance not overcome by our intervention which future interventions could address. Trial Registration AEARCTR-0007018.
PubDate: 2023-07-24
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- Warriors and Vigilantes as Police Officers: Evidence from a Field
Experiment with Body Cameras in Rio de Janeiro-
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Abstract: Research Question Can requiring police to wear body-worn cameras (BWC) on duty restrain police misconduct in contexts such as a favela in Rio de Janeiro, where police use militaristic and highly aggressive tactics' Data We collected quantitative and qualitative data on a wide range of behaviors, including police wearing BWC, turning on the BWC for recording citizen contacts, use of force by and against police officers, stop and search, responding to citizen requests for police assistance, and police supervisors wearing BWC. A total of 857 different police officers were tracked during the 1-year study, with a mean of 470 officers each month participating in the test of BWC across 52,000 officer shifts. Methods BWC status was randomly assigned by shifts to all officers in the shift, within five different kinds of police units. Analyses focused on intent-to-treat effects, with high compliance of wearing BWC but less than half of measured encounters recorded. Regression analyses provided estimates of different effects for officers who had previously been injured or had injured civilians. Findings Camera assignment, regardless of whether police turned cameras on, reduced stop-and-searches and other forms of potentially aggressive interactions with civilians. Cameras also produced a strong de-policing effect: police wearing cameras were significantly less likely to engage in any activity, including responding to calls and dispatch and street requests for help. These changes in police behavior occurred even when in 50% of the registered interactions with civilians, officers disobeyed the protocol that required them to turn their cameras on. Yet when officers’ supervisors wore cameras, policing activities and camera usage increased. Police surveys, interviews, and focus groups strengthen the findings. Conclusion The potential of BWC to reduce police abuse finds limitations where an organizational culture that perpetuates a lack of compliance with internal protocols and violence persists.
PubDate: 2023-05-30
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-023-00087-0
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- Comparing Probability of Police Officer Dismissals in London Between
Misconduct Hearings Chaired by Chief Officers and Legally Qualified Chairs
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Abstract: Research Question Did the probability of a Metropolitan Police officer being dismissed in misconduct hearings in 2014–2018 differ between hearings chaired by Chief Officers in comparison to those chaired by Legally Qualified Chairs, overall and by ethnicity' Data We examined all 234 standard (excluding “special” or “accelerated”) misconduct hearings resolved by the MPS in all 22 months prior to the first hearings chaired by Legally Qualified Chairs (LQCs) in 2016, and in the first 22 months after the first LQC hearings, for a total of 44 months. We limited the time period after LQCs began to chair hearings to the 22 months before a further change in 2018 allowed officers to resign (without permission) while charges were still pending against them (thus averting being dismissed). A total of 142 standard misconduct hearings were chaired by Chief Officers, and 92 cases were chaired by LQCs. Of the 142 Chief Officer cases, 20 cases were heard after the advent of LQC cases, because Chief Officers were still required to chair hearings in relation to misconduct investigations initiated under regulations in effect prior to 2012. Methods We compared the probability of a dismissal for all standard misconduct hearings that were chaired by Chief Officers to the dismissal probability in all cases heard by LQCs. We also compared dismissal rates in the two groups of hearings when subdivided by self-identified ethnicity as either “white” or officers of Black, Asian, and Multiple Ethnic Heritage (BAMEH). Findings The probability of officer dismissal in standard misconduct hearings chaired by Chief Officers was 47% (67 out of 142); the probability in such hearings chaired by LQCs was 34% (31 out of 92). The probability of dismissal in LQC-chaired hearings was therefore 29% lower in LQC hearings than in Chief Officer–chaired hearings. Hearings chaired by Chiefs were 38% more likely to decide to dismiss an officer. The dismissal rates between the two categories of hearings showed even greater difference by ethnic disparity, with white officers dismissed in LQC hearings at half the rate (27%) as in hearings chaired by Chief Officers (46%). This pattern yielded a large difference in ethnic disparity of dismissals, with BAMEH officers 115% more likely than white officers to be dismissed in LQC hearings, but only 13% more likely to be dismissed than white officers in Chief Officer hearings, with a disparity ratio in dismissal outcomes for the 19 BAMEH officers in LQC hearings that was eleven times higher than for the 31 BAMEH officers in the Chief Officer hearings. This higher disparity is due primarily to lower LQC dismissal rates for white officers and not to substantially higher dismissal rates of BAMEH officers by LQCs than by Chief Officers. Part of the overall difference in dismissal rates is a 20% reduction in cases being proven in hearings chaired by LQCs relative to Chief Officer–chair cases. Conclusions In the time period examined, the probability of dismissal for officers in LQC hearings was substantially lower than in Chief Officer hearings, especially for white officers. These comparisons do not come from a randomized experiment in which alternative explanations are held constant, which could have isolated the only cause of lower dismissal rates in the single factor that they were chaired by an LQC. Other explanations for the lower LQC rates therefore remain possible, such as missing data on certain variables. Nonetheless, on the evidence in this report, we cannot reject the hypothesis that using LQCs as chairs of standard hearings on police misconduct has caused lower rates of officer dismissal.
PubDate: 2023-03-28
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-023-00086-1
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- Does Chemical Property Marking Deter Burglary' Results from a New
Danish Experiment-
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Abstract: Research Question Does enrollment of a burglarized household in a chemical property marking program reduce the risk of repeat burglary of the household' Data This randomized controlled trial utilizes a sample of 12,000 previously burgled households in North Zealand, Denmark, randomly divided into treatment, placebo, and control groups. Methods Treatment households received a letter describing local burglary problems and were offered a free chemical property marking kit including warning stickers to deter would-be burglars. Placebo households received a letter outlining generic methods of burglary prevention but were not offered a property marking kit. Control households were not contacted. Results A process evaluation shows that only 29% of the 4000-household treatment group both registered for the experiment and posted warning stickers as instructed. An intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis conducted after 15½ months indicated no statistically significant (p < .05) differences in follow-up prevalence rates of burglary experienced by treatment (4.6%), placebo (5.1%), and control (4.9%) households. Conclusion The current experiment fails to find clear evidence that the posting of warning stickers indicating a once-burglarized household’s use of chemical property marking deters domestic burglary. Nonetheless, it remains possible to demonstrate an effect if a larger proportion of the experimental group could be persuaded to post warning stickers as instructed.
PubDate: 2022-12-19
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-022-00085-8
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- The Fall and Rise of Racial Inequality in London Homicides: a Challenge
for Policing by Consent-
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Abstract: Research Question How have London’s racial and demographic disparities in homicide victimisation rates changed in 2 decades of the twenty-first century, with what implications for policing by consent' Data We collected Metropolitan Police Service homicide victimisation counts in London for each financial year (April through March) so far in the twenty-first century, by race, gender and age. We also collected the estimated residential population size of those groups from the 2001 and 2011 Census results. Methods We divided the number of homicides each year in each demographic category by the estimated population size of that category, and then computed victimisation rates per 100,000 for each of the 21 years. We plotted trends in the rates of each group over time, whilst calculating ratios between victimisation rates of Blacks and Whites, and of South Asians and Whites, in each year. Findings Over the past 2 decades in London, Black homicide victimisation rates have fallen by almost half, but they remain about 5 times higher than homicide victimisations of Whites and South Asians. Inequality of homicide rates between Black and White victimisations declined substantially, but then became worse: the most recent 5 years showed 19% more inequality than in the century’s first 5 years. Three major changes in homicide inequalities have occurred since 2001: (A) The total Black homicide victimisation rate dropped by 71% from 2001 to 2014; (B) homicides of Blacks then increased by 92% in the 5 years to 2019–2020, whilst the White victimisation rate remained unchanged; (C) from 2019 to 2022, Black victimisation rates declined again by 27%, whilst White rates also declined, by 26%. Young Black males aged 16–24 were 10 to 20 times more likely than White counterparts to become homicide victims in 2017–2022. Yet Black female homicide victimisation dropped by 82% over 21 years. Female inequality reduced from up to 400% higher for Black females than Whites at the beginning of the century to 67% higher in the most recent 5 years. For Asians of all ages, inequality of homicide victimisations to Whites disappeared by 2022. Inequality persisted between young Asian males and young White males. Conclusion Changes in London’s racial inequality in homicide victimisation are both substantial and volatile. Understanding their fall and rise may help police to renew and sustain reductions of racial inequality in risks of violence. Learning lessons about what police may have done to cause substantial reductions in Black victimisation requires both retrospective and ongoing tracking of both homicide and policing at local levels. Providing transparent tracking is also essential to public dialogue about policing strategies, which could help to renew policing by consent based on precise statistical evidence.
PubDate: 2022-12-07
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-022-00084-9
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- Tracking Procedural Justice in Processing Detainees: Coding Evidence from
CCTV Cameras in Three Police Custody Suites-
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Abstract: Research question How closely do custody suite encounters between detainees and custody suite officers (CSOs) match the procedural standards for decision makers treating people who are subject to their authority' To what degree does measurement of procedural justice displayed by CSOs on closed-circuit television (CCTV) records vary across detainees, CSOs and custody suites' Data Arrest records for July, August, and September 2020 across three custody suites in the East of England were obtained and a random sample of 150 encounters selected for analysis. Methods Encounters between CSOs and detainees at the booking-in stage as captured on pre-recorded CCTV were coded into four elements of procedural justice: voice, trustworthy motives, impartiality, and respect. Non-verbal communications and dialogue were also examined. Findings Overall, custody suite officers demonstrated high levels of respect and neutrality in dealing with detainees. However, they showed relatively less care for the wellbeing of the detainees and did not offer them enough opportunities to ‘tell their side of the story’ (‘voice’). Further analysis revealed statistically significant variations across the three custody suites in the level of opportunities offered to detainees to have an input in discussing the decision-making. We also found evidence that as length of service as police officers and in custody roles increased, the observed level of expression of ‘trustworthy motives’ displayed decreased. Finally, detainee compliance with officers was greater when respect and care for the wellbeing of detainees were more pronounced. Conclusions A tracking study can help identify police units and police officers with greater concentrations of procedural justice deficits. Such evidence can support more targeted training to improve the delivery of procedural justice, and enhance public confidence in policing.
PubDate: 2022-09-07
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-022-00082-x
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- FAST Policing by Telephone: a Randomised Controlled Trial
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Abstract: Research Question Can caller satisfaction and trust in police be improved (or equalled), after police agree to send a police car to meet with a caller face-to-face, by the alternative of immediate transfer of the call to a police officer who speaks to the caller at length by telephone' Data A total of 1016 calls for police service to 999 or 101 assigned by call takers as falling into a “medium” priority category were checked for eligibility, including consent of the caller to speak immediately to a police officer by phone if possible. Eligible offence types excluded domestic abuse but included a variety of other matters. A majority (57.7%) of eligible cases were about threats made by neighbours, workplace colleagues or others known to the caller. A total of 450 cases were selected as eligible for the test sample out of a total of assessed as potentially eligible. Methods Eligible cases were randomly assigned to either a control group (N = 225) of business as usual (BAU) attempts to provide a face-to-face meeting with a police officer, or the experimental group (N = 225) receiving immediate telephone transfer to a police officer who talked with the caller for over an hour as the initial police response. Analyses were done by intention-to-treat. While 99.75% (N = 249/250) of the experimental cases were treated as assigned, only about half of the 225 control cases actually received a face-to-face meeting with a police officer. All 450 assigned callers who gave consent to enter the experiment were contacted for a satisfaction survey at least 14 days following random assignment of the cases, from which the completion rate was 72.5% (almost identical in the two treatment groups). Findings Eligible, consenting callers reported substantially higher levels of being “satisfied” or “very satisfied” with the experimental police response by telephone (92.6%) than with the BAU efforts to arrange a face-to-face meeting between a police officer and the caller (68.9%). Trust and confidence in Kent police declined among 21% of callers receiving BAU service, but only 9% of callers given immediate telephone service. The median time from the initial call to a conversation between police and caller was under 1 min for the experimental treatment vs. 2721 min for the 80% of BAU control treatments in which any conversation between an officer and a caller occurred within 96 h after the call. Conclusion This first experiment in a research collaboration on FAST (Finding Alternative and Speedier Tactics) policing has opened the door to further tests of immediate response by remote communications (Rothwell, et al. Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing, 6, 1–24, 2022). For the kinds of cases included in this experiment, there is a clear preference by callers for the speedier service by a simple phone call over much slower attempts to provide a face-to-face meeting. If broadly adopted across many other high-volume, low-harm categories of requests for police service, fast policing by phone, video or silent live-chat online could improve public approval of policing while allowing more time for police to prevent more serious crimes.
PubDate: 2022-09-06
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-022-00083-w
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- “Just Right” Policing: a Job for Science
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Abstract: Research Question Can police develop the concept of “signal failures” to build a science of “just right” policing, learning from the mistakes of both “under-policing” and “over-policing”' Data Qualitative documentation of “signal failure” events across the history of Anglo-American policing that have generated widespread public disapproval of police actions or inactions. Methods This communication analyzes and illustrates the potential value of applying scientific methods to signal failures, as a potential source of learning from past failures to prevent future disapproval. Findings There are at least four dimensions for pre-mortems against signal failures: quantity of officers present at an incident, quantity of force used by police, quality of choices police make in deciding what to do, and quality of how well police do what is decided to be done. Signal failures can be collected historically and contemporaneously in large police forces, or across multiple smaller forces at a state or provincial level. They can be compared to samples of similar events that did not become signal failures. Even a simple case-control comparison can be a method for predicting which dimension of an event might be most likely to cause a signal failure. Yet building such data bases requires that police records systems become easier to access, so that both internal and external research can be done to enhance “just right” policing. Conclusion Like many rare events, it is convenient to dismiss signal failures as “flukes” with little potential for prevention. But like airplane crashes and house fires, rare events can be made even rarer. The value of the scientific method cannot be dismissed without testing its application to these major threats to police legitimacy. “Just right” policing may depend on it.
PubDate: 2022-08-22
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-022-00080-z
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- Twenty-One Mental Models That Can Change Policing: a Framework for Using
Data and Research for Overcoming Bias by Rene J. Mitchell-
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PubDate: 2022-08-17
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-022-00077-8
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- Policing “Landscapes” for the Rule of Law and Public Protection: the
State of Evidence on Organisational Policies, Structures, and Human
Resources-
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Abstract: Research Question What evidence is, or is not, available on organisational policies, structures, and practices in national policing institutional landscapes that enable a police service to promote the rule of law and protect the population from crime, disorder, and violations of human rights' Data Qualitative and quantitative research on police organisational policies, structures, and practices in areas such as human resources and recruiting, legal authorities, and reporting lines to governance. Methods A review of the evidence in landscapes associated with higher or lower levels of indications of a rule of law and protection from harm across a range of high-, medium-, and low-income countries and across different regions. The paper seeks to assess the strengths, limitations, and gaps in the evidence and data for understanding this association. Findings The evidence for institutions promoting better policing at the level of nation-states is largely qualitative or historical. Useful frameworks for different models of police landscapes have been developed, with some tentative conclusions observed from within-country studies. These include the negative impact on the rule of law of “militarizing” civilian police forces, the positive impact of checks and balances of external auditing by independent agencies, and the promising effects of well-implemented policies for community policing and body-worn video cameras. Yet all institutional landscapes are embedded in unique cultural traditions, and no one framework for police institutions is likely to work in most countries. Conclusion Research advances over the past half-century have substantially improved scientific understanding of police institutions. Nations investing in those institutions have a direct stake in advancing that knowledge as part and parcel of an effective strategy for promoting police protection of the public, as well as its rule of law.
PubDate: 2022-08-17
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-022-00081-y
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- How Concentrated Are Police on Crime' a Spatiotemporal Analysis of the
Concentration of Police Presence and Crime-
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Abstract: Research Question What were the spatiotemporal patterns of police patrol in a major European city across the pre-COVID year of 2019, how did these patterns change over time, and to what extent did the concentrations of patrol correspond to concentrations of crimes' Data We analyzed more than 77 million GPS signals from 130 police patrol cars showing where and when police patrols were present in police districts and street segments. We also plotted location, time and days of the week of the locations, and times of more than 50,000 recorded crimes. Methods We calculated concentration ratios within both crimes and patrols relative to their distributions in time and space. We then compared the concentration ratios for crime to the concentration ratios for patrols. We concluded the analysis by comparing the extent to which concentrations of crime and patrol locations and times were overlapping. Findings We found that police patrols, much like crime, were concentrated on a small proportion of street segments. Yet spatiotemporal police presence is unrelated to local levels of crime and crime concentration. Relative to temporal crime concentrations, police patrols were substantially under-concentrated from 1500 to 0100 h, all day on Fridays, and the entire months of June, July, August, and December. There was very little overlap in patrol concentrations with crime concentrations. Conclusions After three decades of research showing crime prevention benefits of patrol concentrations on micro-level crime concentrations, police in one European city concentrate patrol presence at locations, times, days, and months where crime is not concentrated. Whether this conclusion can be reached in other cities will depend on replications of this study, both in Europe and other continents.
PubDate: 2022-08-05
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-022-00079-6
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- Police Uses of Force in the USA: a Wealth of Theories and a Lack of
Evidence-
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Abstract: Research Question How adequate is research in the USA for discovering best policies and practices, and best implementation strategies, for reducing loss of life and injury from police use of force. Data This analysis examines police agency policies on the use of force regulation, evaluations of training initiatives, research on supervision, problem officers, and other dimensions of the issues and possible solutions. Methods The analysis examines both documented correlates and the strength of causal inference about those correlates of reductions in the use of force. Findings The analysis concludes that while many promising ideas have been offered, there are few tested strategies that have demonstrated substantial effects in reducing the use of force. There are virtually no successful strategies that have been replicated. Conclusions The current proliferation of untested programs may divert effort from a coherent and well-funded program of research to test and select effective policies that are urgently needed.
PubDate: 2022-08-01
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-022-00078-7
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- Maintaining Confidence in Police Use of Force in Western Liberal
Democracies-
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Abstract: Abstract In a liberal democracy, the police cannot have the power to use force without accountability and transparency. Operational independence to make hard policing decisions should be matched by operational responsibility and willingness to account for that decision. Political and societal pressure can result in over- or under-reaction in the use of hard police tactics. We are not making decisions based on rigorous evidence and research, so we cannot explain why we use certain tactics and whether they are disproportionate. The evidence concerning our need for more self-protection and greater force is poor and may affect our judgement. Public confidence requires both better evidence and better communication of that evidence to communities in which police use force with greatest consequence.
PubDate: 2022-07-13
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-022-00076-9
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- Rapid Video Responses (RVR) vs. Face-to-Face Responses by Police Officers
to Domestic Abuse Victims: a Randomised Controlled Trial-
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Abstract: Research Question Can police increase victim satisfaction and improve efficiency by providing consenting domestic abuse victims, if their offenders are not present, with an immediate video link to a uniformed police officer, rather than waiting for face-to-face police attendance' Data Eligible and consenting cases for this block-randomised trial (N =517) included 357 calls from female victims of intimate partner violence (FIPV), 57 calls from female victims of non-IPV abuse, 83 calls from male victims of IPV and 21 calls from male victims of non-IPV abuse. Cases were screened for eligibility before police call takers asked all callers for consent to a video meeting with a police officer (if one was available for random assignment). Methods Consenting callers (560 of 749 of eligible callers = 75%) agreed to be randomly assigned to either ‘business as usual’ (BAU) for such calls or a rapid video response (RVR), by immediate transfer of their call to a uniformed police officer visible on a video link (to whom the victim was also visible); only 69% (517 of 749) were randomly assigned due to limited RVR availability. Follow-up interviews with all 511 assigned callers consenting to interviews (99% of those assigned) were completed with 80.5 % (N = 416) of those callers across both treatment groups, with 82.2% in RVR and 78.7% in BAU, and near identical rates for female IPV victims as for the combined samples. Official records on arrest and other short-term case outcomes were also collected. Data were analysed in four blocks of separate random assignment sequences for each of the categories of callers. Across all four blocks combined, 94% of the RVR-assigned victims received a completed RVR resolution; 67% of the BAU victims received a face-to-face contact with a police officer, with other BAU responses by voice phone but not video. Findings Rapid video response (RVR) to these calls was an average of 656 times faster in responding to the victims (3 min) than the average BAU time for trying to deploy a police car (1969 min). RVR clearly produced higher victim satisfaction among female IPV victims (89% in the RVR group) compared to control victims (78% in the BAU group) (p=0.01). Arrest rates for suspects were 50% higher in the RVR group (24%) relative to the BAU group (16%), with three times more arrests during follow-up investigations on RVR cases. Trust and confidence in the police improved more for abuse victims receiving RVR than those receiving BAU. Conclusions In this test, RVR helped domestic abuse victims far more rapidly than BAU. The innovation improved domestic abuse victims’ satisfaction, and their trust and confidence in the police, who made more arrests after RVR than BAU. Based on these conclusions, Kent Police have launched RVR county-wide as a new standard offering for domestic abuse victims to select.
PubDate: 2022-05-31
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-022-00075-w
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- Evidence-Based Policing Is Here to Stay: Innovative Research, Meaningful
Practice, and Global Reach-
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Abstract: Research Question In the context of important advances as well as global reach, what more is needed for evidence-based policing to bridge the divide between academic research and police practice' Data We draw on 18 case studies reported in The Globalization of Evidence-Based Policing: Innovations in Bridging the Research-Practice Divide (Piza and Welsh, 2022). These accounts of innovations provide a range of qualitative evidence on the integration of scientific research in contemporary policing. Findings The case studies describe some plausible causal links in four key processes: (a) transferring scientific knowledge to the practice community, (b) empowering officers to conduct police-led science, (c) aligning the work of researchers and practitioners, and (d) incorporating evidence-based policing in daily police functions. Conclusions While there is much work to do to achieve population-level impacts, many innovative efforts at bridging the research-practice divide in policing are becoming embedded enough to make that happen.
PubDate: 2022-05-24
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-022-00074-x
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- “Test-As-You-Go” for Hot Spots Policing: Continuous Impact Assessment
with Repeat Crossover Designs-
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Abstract: Abstract Hot spots policing is rapidly changing its evidence-base. Instead of producing more results of one-off, conventional experiments that provide an evidence-base across police agencies (Braga et al., (Campbell Systematic Reviews, 15(3), 2019), hot spots policing (HSP) experiments in the UK are now providing continuous impact assessment (CIA) within police agencies, and within each hot spot. This new mission for experiments entails a change in research design, from the conventionally fixed assignment of each hot spot to a single treatment (in what is technically called a “parallel-track” design) to alternating treatments for each hot spot (in what is known as a “repeat crossover” design). Crossover design experiments are designed for an “on”-days-versus- “off”-days, “test-as-you-go” operating model, using test results in each hot spot for immediate operational feedback to improve performance. This feature can empower police supervisors with compelling evidence for officers about their impact on crime in recent weeks. This approach has great promise, but it also has a great threat. The promise is for integrating evidence more tightly with daily police operations. The threat is that crossover tests may underestimate the true benefits of HSP because they ignore the lingering, “residual deterrence” effects of HSP “on” days continuing into “off” days without HSP. That “carryover” effect of HSP in prior days may take up to 4 days to “wash out” (Barnes et al., 2020). Until it does, crime during HSP “off” days may be lower than if there had been no recent HSP “on” days, thus making HSP look less effective than it truly is. This problem is purely a matter of what analysts do, rather than what police officers do. As long as the officers deliver on their assigned tasks of which hot spots to patrol when, both research designs can have validity. But the problem of how to analyze the effects of these patrols is up to the analysts to solve. If the analysts handle the problem by deleting a certain number of days in between treatment changes for each hot spot—technically known as a “washout” period—they will provide valid impact assessments of HSP. More important, they can do that with a design that requires no long-term denial of service to large numbers of hot spots assigned to a control group, as in traditional random assignment to parallel tracks of treatment vs. control (e.g., Sherman & Weisburd, (Justice Quarterly, 625–648, 1995)). Repeat crossover trials are therefore an excellent improvement over parallel-track trials, subject to omitting crime measures from the washout period for eliminating carryover effects during crossover periods from one treatment condition to another. The following discussion shows how analysts and police leaders can use and implement crossover designs with high internal validity, without biased measures of crime on control days.
PubDate: 2022-05-13
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-022-00073-y
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- Tracking Repeat Victimisation After Domestic Abuse Cases Are Heard With
and Without Independent Domestic Violence Advisors (IDVAs) in an English
Magistrate’s Court-
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Abstract: Research Question Do cases heard in a specialist domestic abuse (SDA) court on days when Independent Domestic Violence Advisors (IDVAs) are present to engage with victims, compared to cases heard on days when no IDVAs are present, result in more convictions, or less frequency or severity of repeat victimisation' Data This analysis included all 559 trials in one SDA court from June 2016 to December 2018, including 514 unique victims. IDVAs were present on the starting day of 84% of the trials, leaving 16% (90) cases to start on days when no IDVAs were present. Methods The treatment and comparison cases were compared for similarity of 23 characteristics, with only one difference of over 20%. The analysis proceeded as appropriate for a Level 4 (Sherman et al., Preventing crime: What works, what doesn’t, what’s promising: A report to the United States Congress, National Institute of Justice, 1997) quasi-experimental comparison between the treatment and comparison cases. Findings IPA trials in the IDVA treatment group were 12% less likely than those in the comparison group to result in a conviction (RR=0.88, 95% CI 0.74-1.05). Trials in the IDVA treatment group had a 96% higher risk of being followed by a repeat domestic abuse incident in the 18 months after trial than trials in the no-IDVA comparison group (RR = 1.96, 95% CI 1.19–3.23). Treatment group victims experienced a mean harm score for repeat victimisation in the 18 months post-trial eight times higher than the comparison group (80 compared with ten). Conclusions The provision of Independent Domestic Violence Advisors in a specialist domestic abuse court was clearly correlated with higher rates of repeat victimisation, as well as higher levels of harm in repeat offences and lower rates of conviction. This correlation could well be causal, but only a randomised controlled trial can rule out that possibility.
PubDate: 2022-02-01
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-022-00072-z
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- Docs and Cops: Origins and Ongoing Challenges of Evidence-Based Policing
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Abstract: Question What lessons can evidence-based policing draw from the three-decade history of evidence-based medicine' Evidence Ongoing research and practice in evidence-based medicine 1992–2021. Findings Evidence-based medicine has not met its goals due to the difficulty of behavior change, but changing financial incentives and information technology advances are beginning to have a significant impact. Conclusion Evidence-based policing may benefit from evidence-based medicine’s experiences with diffusion of innovation and changing inbred cultural practices.
PubDate: 2021-10-06
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-021-00069-0
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- Fifteen Minutes per Day Keeps the Violence Away: a Crossover Randomised
Controlled Trial on the Impact of Foot Patrols on Serious Violence in
Large Hot Spot Areas-
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Abstract: Research Question Did a 15-min patrol delivery over 1 day reduce serious violent crime in large hot spots (mean size = 2 km × 2 km), without displacing such crimes to nearby areas' Data We tracked daily official crime reports in a sample of 21 high-crime Bedfordshire (UK) Lower-layer Super Output areas (LSOAs). We measured time spent by two-person police foot patrols in those areas with daily GPS data from handheld devices given to officers working on overtime. We also counted proactively initiated arrests. Methods We used a crossover randomised controlled trial on the 21 “hot spot” LSOAs, each of which was randomly assigned daily to be either in a treatment condition of 15-min of patrol (as one of seven each day) or a control condition of no patrol (as one of 14 each day) for each of 90 days. We used an intention-to-treat framework to analyse the impact of patrols on the outcome measures overall, on consecutive days of assignment to the same condition, and in 100-m ‘buffer’ zones around each hot spot. Findings We found that on treatment days the hot spots had 44% lower Cambridge crime harm index scores from serious violence than on control days, as well as 40% fewer incidents across all public crimes against personal victims. Statistically significant differences in lower prevalence, counts and harm of both non-domestic violent crime and robbery and other non-domestic crimes against personal victims were also found. We found no evidence of either displacement of serious crime into a 100-m buffer zone, nor any evidence of residual deterrence on no-patrol days following patrol days. We did find evidence of a cumulative effect: the largest differences in crime harm on control days were found in treatment days that came after 3 days of consecutive patrol in the same LSOA. Conclusions Even minimal amounts of foot patrol can prevent serious violent crime across a large area, and repeated patrols over several days help even more. Our findings suggest that, to reduce both violent and other forms of crime, uniformed officers need to patrol hot spots for short amounts of times on consecutive days.
PubDate: 2021-08-17
DOI: 10.1007/s41887-021-00066-3
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