Subjects -> LAW (Total: 1535 journals)
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CRIMINAL LAW (28 journals)

Showing 1 - 26 of 26 Journals sorted alphabetically
American Criminal Law Review     Free   (Followers: 9)
Anuario Iberoamericano de Derecho Internacional Penal     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Bergen Journal of Criminal Law & Criminal Justice     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Berkeley Journal of Criminal Law     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Cambridge journal of evidence-based policing     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 60)
Derecho Penal y Criminología     Open Access   (Followers: 4)
European Criminal Law Review     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 15)
Howard Journal of Crime and Justice The     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 17)
Indonesian Journal of Criminal Law     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
International Journal of Digital Crime and Forensics     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 11)
Journal of Criminal Law     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 416)
Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 51)
Justitiële verkenningen     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 4)
Legal and Criminological Psychology     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 15)
Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform / Journal of Criminology an Penal Reform     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Money Laundering Bulletin     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8)
New Journal of European Criminal Law     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 8)
PROCES     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Psychiatry, Psychology and Law     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 459)
Revista Eletrônica de Direito Penal e Política Criminal     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
SASI     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Sexual Abuse A Journal of Research and Treatment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 47)
Strafverteidiger     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Te Wharenga : New Zealand Criminal Law Review     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Tidsskrift for strafferett     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Tijdschrift voor Criminologie     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Similar Journals
Journal Cover
Cambridge journal of evidence-based policing
Number of Followers: 60  
  Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 2520-1344 - ISSN (Online) 2520-1336
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2656 journals]
  • Tracking Violent Crime with Ambulance Data: How Much Crime Goes
    • Abstract: Research Question What proportion of ambulance records documenting injuries caused by criminal violence is included in police records for violent crimes occurring in the same area at the same dates and times as incidents found in ambulance records' Data We analysed subsets of three datasets during matched time periods: West Midlands Ambulance Service records of all 36,639 incidents of violent injuries from January 2012 to March 2017; 132,317 West Midlands Police records of violent crimes from January 2012 to December 2015; and 9083 records of treatment of violent injuries as recorded in hospital Emergency Department (ED) records covering September 2013 to March 2016. Methods We compared all incidents in the ambulance dataset and ED data to corresponding locations and times in incidents recorded in police datasets. Findings Approximately 90% of cases in the ambulance dataset did not have a corresponding case in the police dataset. The proportion was even lower in the Emergency Department dataset, where less than 5% of cases were successfully matched to a police record. These data suggest that adding the medical data to the police data could add 15 to 20% more violent offences to the totals recorded by the police. Conclusions Tracking identified ambulance data can add substantial numbers of serious violent crimes, over and above those reported to the police. These added cases can increase the targeting of police and public health resources to prevent harm against victims, at places, and by offenders at highest risk of serious violence.
      PubDate: 2021-04-23
  • Do Effects of Arrest on Recidivism Vary by Neighborhood' A Contextual
           Analysis of the Milwaukee Domestic Violence Experiment
    • Abstract: Research Question Does the effect of arrest for misdemeanor domestic assault on suspect recidivism vary by characteristics of the neighborhood in which the individual suspect resides' Data This analysis combined 1990 Census data for Milwaukee with data on 1133 domestic assault suspects randomly assigned in 1987–1988 to arrest vs. warning in the Milwaukee Domestic Violence Experiment (Sherman 1992). Outcomes were measured by the prevalence of one or more new arrest for misdemeanor domestic assault in the 6 months after the randomly assigned response to the presenting incident. Methods The analysis compared models using only individual-level suspect characteristics to models that combined individual data with Census tract characteristics relevant to community stakes in conformity and social disorganization. Findings The models show substantial effects of structural characteristics of community context that moderate arrest effects on recidivism. Arrested suspects with medium individual stakes in conformity show an 18% reduction in the prevalence of repeat domestic assault, but arrestees who live in Census tracts with medium levels of community stakes in conformity show a one-third (32%) greater likelihood to repeat domestic assault than suspects in those medium stakes Census tracts who were not arrested. For all suspects with high levels of individual stakes, arrest decreased recidivism within 6 months by 39.7% compared to not making an arrest. In contrast, for individuals who live in communities with high stakes, arrest decreased recidivism within 6 months by 50%. Conclusion The effects of arrests on offending in this experiment were highly dependent on the social strength of community characteristics where suspects resided. Police strategies for safeguarding victims may be vulnerable to backfiring in areas of greatest social vulnerability. Only more randomized experiments can show whether mandatory arrest policies help or hurt domestic abuse victims in different kinds of communities.
      PubDate: 2021-03-23
  • Correction to: Highest Harm Crime “Recruiters” in a London Borough: a
           Case of Moving Targets
    • Abstract: A Correction to this paper has been published:
      PubDate: 2021-03-15
  • Comment on Kärrholm et al. “Designing the Swedish Crime Harm Index: an
           Evidence-Based Strategy”
    • Abstract: Question Is the Swedish Crime Harm Index as presented and corrected in this Journal as reported by Kärrholm et al. Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing (2020a, b) a valid method for studying the long-term development of crime and of the harm caused by crime' Data Cited publications in this journal, Swedish crime statistics, and other evidence on historical changes in Swedish crime reporting. Methods Documentation of the ways in which crime counting in different categories has changed over time in Sweden. Findings The authors do not seem to have considered important aspects of the way the Swedish crime statistics are assembled. An overestimation of the increase in cases of homicide and of the penalty value of offenses that do not usually result in custodial sentences are two examples. The authors also fail to consider legislation that criminalizes previously unpunished (harmful) behavior. Conclusion The historical CHI, as it has been constructed by Kärrholm et al. is not an appropriate method for studying the long-term development of crime and of the harm caused by crime. In a time of net-widening and increasing punitiveness in the justice system, the CHI will show an increase even with no change in actual crime behavior. A simple measure of the current harm caused by crime may be useful for short-term analysis, planning, and the evaluation of police efforts, but it is inadequate as a means of studying the longitudinal development of the crime problem. In the calculation of CHI, harm caused by crimes that do not lead to imprisonment should also be included.
      PubDate: 2021-03-15
  • Talking to Strangers: What We Should Know About the People We Don’t
    • PubDate: 2021-01-07
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00058-9
  • Random Assignment with a Smile: How to Love “TheRandomiser”
    • Abstract: Objectives This note describes a free online portal ( that allows researchers to design randomised controlled trials and then delegate the random assignment process to pracademics delivering the experiment. Methods Observation of the use of this tool in repeated randomised trials in police agencies. Findings Researchers are able to design RCTs using the online portal, which offers many ways to customise the experimental design. Results are downloadable in excel or plain text format. Researchers can grant access to treatment providers, enabling them to log in securely, enter identifiers for cases, and assign different treatments to each case. Email notifications of assignment can be sent to designated list of recipients who can track the allocation of treatments. This tool delivers this functionality at zero cost and at the time of writing is being used by 78 researchers, who have set up 70 experiments that have processed 5778 randomisations. Conclusions TheRandomiser has been used in multiple experiments with feedback suggesting it is a powerful and user-friendly tool. The ability to deliver trickle-flow randomisation with high degrees of researcher control are attractive, as is the ability to edit an unlimited number of qualification questions prior to randomisation.
      PubDate: 2020-12-14
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00057-w
  • Highest Harm Crime “Recruiters” in a London Borough: a Case of
           Moving Targets
    • Abstract: Research Question Can criminal recruiters be identified and ranked by crime harm levels in a London borough, and if so, how long is the predictive window of opportunity for targeting them with crime prevention efforts' Data This study deploys 5 years of Metropolitan Police Service crime data, relating to one of the 32 London boroughs in that time period. The data structure allowed identification of all suspects linked to the same crime report and all crime reports linked to the same suspects. Identification of linked suspects and their associated crime harm was undertaken using Structured Query Language (SQL) and ColdFusion Markup Language (CFML) via a web-based application. Methods All offenders were ranked by the number of co-offenders they acquired, as well as the total Cambridge crime harm index weight of the detected offences associated with them. Findings The highest harm recruiters are shown to be up to 137 times as harmful as the average offender, with one recruiter committing the same number of crimes as another but having 97 times more crime harm. Recruiter populations are highly dynamic, with few potential targets persisting from year to year over multiple years. Conclusions This study suggests that criminal recruiters are readily identifiable from police data, but police would only have a short window of opportunity to use deterrent or other preventive strategies with them once they are identified.
      PubDate: 2020-12-10
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00060-1
  • COVID Lockdowns, Social Distancing, and Fatal Car Crashes: More Deaths on
           Hobbesian Highways'
    • Abstract: Research Question What happened to US traffic safety during the first US COVID-19 lockdown, and why was the pattern the opposite of that observed in previous sudden declines of traffic volume' Data National and local statistics on US traffic volume, traffic fatalities, injury accidents, speeding violations, running of stop signs, and other indicators of vehicular driving behavior, both in 2020 and in previous US economic recessions affecting the volume of road traffic. Methods Comparative analysis of the similarities and differences between the data for the COVID-19 lockdown in parts of the USA in March 2020 and similar data for the 2008–2009 global economic crisis, as well as other US cases of major reductions in traffic volume. Findings The volume of traffic contracted sharply once a COVID-19 national emergency was declared and most states issued stay-at-home orders, but motor vehicle fatality rates, injury accidents, and speeding violations went up, and remained elevated even as traffic began returning toward normal. This pattern does not fit post-World War II recessions where fatality rates declined with the volume of traffic nor does the 2020 pattern match the pattern during World War II when traffic dropped substantially with little change in motor vehicle fatality rates. Conclusions The findings are consistent with a theory of social distancing on highways undermining compliance with social norms, a social cost of COVID which, if not corrected, poses potential long-term increases in non-compliance and dangerous driving.
      PubDate: 2020-12-01
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00059-8
  • Victim-Offender Overlap in Violent Crime: Targeting Crime Harm in a
           Canadian Suburb
    • Abstract: Research Question To what extent are victims of violent crime also offenders, and vice versa, with what concentrations of total crime harm across each person who has ever been reported as both a victim and an offender within the study period' Data We analyse 27,233 unique individuals who were the subject of violent crime reports to the Peel Regional Police Service in Canada, either as offenders, victims, or both, for crimes reported between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2016. Each individual linked to a violent crime in this period was tracked for the 730 days subsequent to the first crime report naming them. Methods We coded each crime with the Canadian Crime Severity Index (CCSI) to calculate victimization and offending harm totals across all incidents for each individual. We then computed each individual’s ratio of total CCSI from victimization to total CCSI from victimization. Based on the distribution of these ratios of CCSI from all offending to all victimization, we show how police can distinguish three categories of victim-offenders (VOs): predominant victims (PVs), predominant offenders (POs), and balanced victim-offenders (BVOs), as well as the single-category absolute offenders (AOs) and absolute victims (AVs). Findings Across all 27,233 individuals tracked, 17,138 (64%) appeared first as victims, and 10,095 (36%) appeared first as suspects. Of those appearing first as victims, 997 (6%) are linked to a violent crime as an offender within 730 days. Among those appearing first as offenders, 1019 (10%) are subsequently reported as victimized within 730 days. The total of this combined group (VOs) = 1665 individuals (6% of the entire population). Using a 3.5:1 ratio of victim to offender harm, we subdivide the 1665 VOs further into 322 predominant victims, 280 predominant offenders, and 1063 balanced victim-offenders. The 20% of individuals (n = 5455) with highest harm are linked to 71% of overall harm. On average, predominant offenders (who have also been victimized) are associated with 2.7 times as much harm as absolute offenders, and predominant victims (who have also been offenders) have three times as much harm as absolute victims. Conclusions This research shows how combining records of victimization and offending to target higher harm levels with greater potential benefits for police investments in harm reduction and prevention.
      PubDate: 2020-11-19
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00056-x
  • Racial Disparities in Homicide Victimisation Rates: How to Improve
           Transparency by the Office of National Statistics in England and Wales
    • Abstract: Research Question How much racial disparity in trends of homicide victimisation rates in England and Wales is obscured by the failure of official statistics to report rates of death per 100,000 people at risk' Data We collected two decades of homicide victimisation counts in England and Wales, as broken out for each racial group identified by the Office of National Statistics. We also collected the estimated population size of those groups from the 2001 and 2011 Census. Methods We divided the number of homicides in each racial category by the estimated population size of that category, by year, for 20 years, and plotted their relationships. Findings While White homicide victimisation rates remained low and stable from 2000 through 2019, Black homicide victimisation ranged from 200 to 800% higher than that for the White population during that time period, at an average of 5.6 times higher for Blacks. While Black victimisation dropped by 69% from 2001 to 2012, it almost doubled (79% increase) from 2013 to 2019, rising seven times faster than the White victimisation rate. Asian rates remained stable at about twice as high as White rates. For persons aged 16 to 24, the most recent homicide rate was 24 times higher for Blacks than for Whites. Conclusion None of these rates per 100,000 or ratios has been reported by the Office of National Statistics. If future ONS reporting of homicide rates would include relevant denominators with raw numerators, public understanding of racial disparities in “over-policing” could be informed by potential “under-policing” relative to racial inequalities in homicide risk.
      PubDate: 2020-11-10
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00055-y
  • Predicting Violence in Merseyside: a Network-Based Approach Using No
           Demographic Information
    • Abstract: Purpose We explore how we can best predict violent attacks with injury using a limited set of information on (a) previous violence, (b) previous knife and weapon carrying, and (c) violence-related behaviour of known associates, without analysing any demographic characteristics. Data Our initial data set consists of 63,022 individuals involved in 375,599 events that police recorded in Merseyside (UK) from 1 January 2015 to 18 October 2018. Methods We split our data into two periods: T1 (initial 2 years) and T2 (the remaining period). We predict “violence with injury” at time T2 as defined by Merseyside Police using the following individual-level predictors at time T1: violence with injury; involvement in a knife incident and involvement in a weapon incident. Furthermore, we relied on social network analysis to reconstruct the network of associates at time T1 (co-offending network) for those individuals who have committed violence at T2, and built three additional network-based predictors (associates’ violence; associates’ knife incident; associates’ weapon incident). Finally, we tackled the issue of predicting violence (a) through a series of robust logistic regression models using a bootstrapping method and (b) through a specificity/sensitivity analysis. Findings We found that 7720 individuals committed violence with injury at T2. Of those, 2004 were also present at T1 (27.7%) and co-offended with a total of 7202 individuals. Regression models suggest that previous violence at time T1 is the strongest predictor of future violence (with an increase in odds never smaller than 123%), knife incidents and weapon incidents at the individual level have some predictive power (but only when no information on previous violence is considered), and the behaviour of one’s associates matters. Prior association with a violent individual and prior association with a knife-flagged individual were the two strongest network predictors, with a slightly stronger effect for knife flags. The best performing regressors are (a) individual past violence (36% of future violence cases correctly identified); (b) associates’ past violence (25%); and (c) associates’ knife involvement (14%). All regressors are characterised by a very high level of specificity in predicting who will not commit violence (80% or more). Conclusions Network-based indicators add to the explanation of future violence, especially prior association with a knife-flagged individual and association with a violent individual. Information about the knife involvement of associates appears to be more informative than a subject’s own prior knife involvement.
      PubDate: 2020-11-06
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00053-0
  • Targeting Fatal Traffic Collision Risk from Prior Non-Fatal Collisions in
    • Abstract: Research question How accurately can all locations of 44 fatal collisions in 1 year be forecasted across 1403 micro-areas in Toronto, based upon locations of all 1482 non-fatal collisions in the preceding 4 years' Data All 1482 non-fatal traffic collisions from 2008 through 2011 and all 44 fatal traffic collisions in 2012 in the City of Toronto, Ontario, were geocoded from public records to 1403 micro-areas called ‘hexagonal tessellations’. Methods The total number of non-fatal traffic collisions in Period 1 (2008 through 2011) was summed within each micro-area. The areas were then classified into seven categories of frequency of non-fatal collisions: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 or more. We then divided the number of micro-areas in each category in Period 1 into the total number of fatal traffic collisions in each category in Period 2 (2012). The sensitivity and specificity of forecasting fatal collision risk based on prior non-fatal collisions were then calculated for five different targeting strategies. Findings The micro-locations of 70.5% of fatal collisions in Period 2 had experienced at least 1 non-fatal collision in Period 1. In micro-areas that had zero non-fatal collisions during Period 1, only 1.7% had a fatal collision in Period 2. Across all areas, the probability of a fatal collision in the area during Period 2 increased with the number of non-fatal collisions in Period 1, with 6 or more non-fatal collisions in Period 1 yielding a risk of fatal collision in Period 2 that was 8.7 times higher than in areas with no non-fatal collisions. This pattern is evidence that targeting 25% of micro-areas effectively could cut total traffic fatalities in a given year by up to 50%. Conclusion Highly elevated risks of traffic fatalities can be forecasted based on prior non-fatal collisions, targeting a smaller portion of the city for more concentrated investment in saving lives.
      PubDate: 2020-11-02
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00054-z
  • Targeting Missing Persons Most Likely to Come to Harm Among 92,681 Cases
           Reported to Devon and Cornwall Police
    • Abstract: Research question Given the information available to Devon and Cornwall Police at the time when they received a missing person report, which knowable variables indicated increased odds of the person coming to serious harm' Data The study examines all 92,681 missing reports received by Devon and Cornwall Police over 11 years from 2008 through 2019, for which 3481 (3.8%) persons came to harm, or about one in 27. Variables known at the time the report was filed included (A) risk levels estimated by police applying the College of Policing risk assessment template (high, medium, low), and (B) the missing person’s age, gender, in-care status, disability, dyslexia, learning disability, hearing or visual impairment, reduced mobility, mental illness, child sexual exploitation risk, reported suicidal, vulnerable adult status and previous reports of being missing. Methods Odds ratios are used to estimate differences in likelihood of missing persons coming to harm in a series of single-variable tests. Matrices are used to assess the accuracy of the current risk assessment process used by police services in England and Wales, as applied in Devon and Cornwall. Limited multivariate analysis was undertaken. Findings Application of the current College of Policing protocol for risk assessment by subjective professional judgements yields substantial error rates, with 89% of the predicted high risk cases having no actual harm and 59% of cases with actual harm after not being predicted as high risk. The odds of harm based on single variables examined are highly conditional on age and gender as third factors. Both men and women over 18 are 4 times more likely to be harmed (6.8%) than those under age 18 (1.7%). Conclusions This study casts substantial doubt on the accuracy of the current subjective risk assessment process for missing persons. As the authorizing body for Approved Professional Practice, the College of Policing could use this evidence to endorse further development and implementation of a multivariate evidence-based risk assessment tool for missing persons that takes into account the age and gender of the missing person as well as all other factors in a single forecasting model.
      PubDate: 2020-10-21
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00051-2
  • The Evidence-Based Investigative Tool (EBIT): a Legitimacy-Conscious
           Statistical Triage Process for High-Volume Crimes
    • Abstract: Research Question Based on the evidence at the end of a preliminary investigation of minor, non-domestic assault and public order cases, how accurately can the likelihood of a sanctioned detection be predicted for triage decisions while maintaining high awareness of legitimacy issues' Data Investigative records on assault and public order offences recorded by Kent Police, with a case-control sample of 522 randomly selected detected cases and 482 randomly selected undetected cases, a test sample of 931 cases, and an additional 7947 cases for testing the model on all eligible cases in the force area for the initial six months of its use. Methods A case control comparison between solved and unsolved cases produced a logistic regression model that was used to predict investigative outcomes in both the test sample and the complete tracking of its use in investigative operations. Findings Eight elements of evidence available by the end of the preliminary investigation were found to predict whether a sanctioned detection would result from further investigation: (1) victim supports police prosecution, and evidence includes (2) a named suspect, (3) a cooperative witness, (4) CCTV evidence, (5) confirming police testimony, (6) forensic evidence, (7) a connection to other cases and (8) a report of the crime to police less than 28 days after the incident occurred. When the EBIT was calibrated to identify only the 31% of cases most likely to yield a detection from further investigation, the model correctly forecast 97% of cases that would not be solved, producing only 3% false negatives. It also reduced the false-positive rate from 73 to 22% in cases that did not lead to a sanctioned detection. Conclusions A case control analysis of solvability factors at the end of a preliminary investigation can identify almost all of the cases that are likely to be solved, even while the model predicts that the majority of all cases at that point will not be solved.
      PubDate: 2020-09-08
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00050-3
  • Detecting Modern Slavery on Cannabis Farms: The Challenges of Evidence
    • Abstract: Research Question To what extent could police identify victims of modern slavery among growers arrested on cannabis farms as suspects under drug laws, and what challenges of evidence would have to be met to separate offending from victimisation' Data A purposive sample of criminal history data of all Vietnamese nationals arrested for cannabis cultivation offences in Surrey/Sussex in the 3 years to 2017 (N = 19) was identified and collected. Three ‘cannabis farm’ cases from the period 2014–2017 were analysed to produce key information about growers, including their nationality, criminal history and possible status as modern slavery victims. The case records and interviews provide key information about the extent to which growers on farms were treated as slaves under the 2015 Modern Slavery Act. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with the three arrested growers to explore their lived experiences of recruitment and labour on the farms. Arresting police officers were also interviewed to explore how they frame the problem of cannabis cultivation and make decisions about their role in confronting it. Interview transcripts were prepared for analytic purposes. All interviewees were informed that the research was focused on the management of the policing of cannabis farms alone and full anonymity was assured. Findings Five of the 19 Vietnamese nationals had previous criminal disposals. Of the remaining 14 individuals, five had no record and nine had various charges, but the prosecutions had not reached court. Of the three cases examined in depth, the arrested growers provided stories consistent with their having been trafficked and subjected to ‘debt bondage’. They described precarious journeys before being forced to work on UK farms. All three had been exposed to threats of violence or death for themselves and/or their families, should they attempt escape. Varying levels of mental and physical hardship were evidenced. There were a priori reasons to conclude that they were eligible to be considered modern slavery victims. When arrested, however, none had pleaded victimisation. Police officers demonstrated an ignorance of related legislation and varying levels of awareness of the possibility of modern slavery. They responded to the first impression made by the grower as a person culpable under drugs laws. Even where officers had concerns about modern slavery, no appropriate crime was recorded, and no formalised investigation followed. Conclusions Given reluctance or inability to frame the police response to cannabis farms under modern anti-slavery legislation, policing agencies should consider adopting more detailed practice guidelines to officers on how to react to the complex challenges involved, including the investigative opportunities that may help unearth modern slavery on cannabis farms through greater encouragement of victim accounts.
      PubDate: 2020-08-28
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00052-1
  • A Police Partnership Targeting Truancy: Study Protocol for a Cluster
           Randomised Controlled Trial
    • Abstract: Research Question How can an Australian police agency best test its role in a truancy prevention programme that can help to prevent crime' Data Operational and analytic planning for testing the Ability School Engagement Partnership (ASEP) programme in Queensland that aims to increase school attendance and reduce anti-social behaviour, including offending. Methods Fulfilling the requirements for registering a randomised trial protocol with the Registry (NCT04281966; date registered 24 February 2020). Findings A protocol deploying a cluster randomised trial offers sufficient statistical power to detect a moderately large effect size as statistically significant with 80% probability. Conclusion Implementation of this protocol as planned would provide an internally valid test of the effectiveness of the ASEP programme in real-world conditions.
      PubDate: 2020-08-24
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00048-x
  • Targeting Knife-Enabled Homicides for Preventive Policing: A Stratified
           Resource Allocation Model
    • Abstract: Research Question How can police translate differing risk levels for knife homicide into a resource allocation model that follows the evidence' Data The data for this publication are taken from the open access tables published in this journal by Massey et al. Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing, 3:1-20, (2019). Those data show the linear relationship between the number of non-fatal knife assaults in a lower super output area (LSOA) in 1 year and the risk of a knife-enable homicide in the subsequent year, as well as how many of the 4835 LSOAs fell into each of five levels of increasing homicide risk. Methods The data from Massey’s research are re-calculated to show how a hypothetical number of 15-min police patrols could be allocated across all areas on the basis of a combination of knife-enabled (KE) homicide risk level and the volume of LSOAs at each of the five levels of knife homicide risk. We display these results using both tables and multi-layered “wedding cake” images to show the size of different dimensions of each level, including proportion of total homicides and directed patrol frequency per LSOA at each of the five risk levels. Findings Based on the hypothetical allocation of 10,000 patrol visits of 15 min in length, the highest risk group, with a forecasted 6% of all KE homicides, would receive 600 police patrols, divided by the 41 LSOAs at that risk level = 15 patrols across every 10 days. At the lowest level of risk, the 2787 LSOAs would share the 3000 patrols that a group of LSOAs would recieve for having 30% of homicides, which equals 1.1 patrols every 10 days. The hypothetical premise is that every LSOA gets some patrol, but the highest risk areas get 15 times more patrol to follow the evidence of risk. The formula is to (1) allocate resources by proportion of homicide at each risk level; (2) divide the allocated resources by the number of areas in each risk level group; and (3) allocate the resulting resources per day to each area in each of the 5 levels. Conclusion Police face difficult tradeoffs between targeting more policing to fewer areas of higher risk (with more efficiency) or to more areas of lower risk (with more effectiveness). The use of a formula combining risk and volume can help guide such decisions, illustrated by a layered “wedding cake” visualization for gaining clarity and legitimacy in communications.
      PubDate: 2020-08-19
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00049-w
  • Tracking Police Arrests of Intimate Partner Domestic Abuse Suspects in
           London: a Situational Factors Analysis
    • Abstract: Research Question What were the odds of named suspects being arrested for a reported crime of intimate partner abuse over one 12-month period in one area of London (UK), and how did those odds vary across twelve predictive situational characteristics, including the presence or absence of the suspect' Data This study analyses 1000 intimate partner domestic abuse (DA) crimes recorded in the South West Basic Command Unit of the London Metropolitan Police Service in the 12 months between 1 February 2018 and 31 January 2019. Methods Twelve factors present at the time of police recording an intimate partner abuse crime were analysed in an odds ratio analysis predicting whether a named suspect would be arrested for the crime. Separate analyses were conducted for cases in which the suspect was present at the time police arrived to interview the victim and in cases in which the suspect was absent. Analyses were also conducted by crime type and crime severity scores, with a descriptive analysis of reasons police gave for not making arrests. Findings Police arrested the suspect in 90% of the 287 cases in which suspects were present when police arrived, and in 47% of the 713 cases in which the suspect was absent on arrival. There was no difference in crime severity scores between cases in which arrests were made vs. not. After suspect absence, victim unwillingness to press charges was the second strongest predictor of no arrest being made, with 21% reported unwilling to cooperate when suspects were present and 29% unwilling when suspects were absent. Arrests were more likely when suspects were male than female and less likely with male victims than female victims. Conclusions These data show that in an area housing about 12% of London’s population, police make arrests in 90% of intimate partner crimes when the suspect is still present at the scene, and almost half of those in which suspects leave before police arrive. The primary predictor of non-arrest, controlling for offender absence, is victim unwillingness to support prosecution. Various policy options can be considered in light of these findings.
      PubDate: 2020-08-18
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00047-y
  • Targeting American Policing: Rogue Cops or Rogue Cultures'
    • Abstract: Saving the legitimacy of a democratic policing system from the outrages of rogue cops and rogue police cultures cannot be done just by recommending what policies police agencies should adopt. In the USA and many other countries, police reform requires a realpolitik vision of who can get the policies implemented and how they can accomplish that. In the USA, the most powerful political actor for police reform is the State Governor, followed by the State legislature. All 18,000 local police agencies are creatures of the state in which they are located. Minnesota has not just the Minneapolis Police, but some 400 other local police departments. The most important step to save lives from criminal policing is for states to create Inspectors-General of Policing (IGP), along the lines of HM Inspectors of Constabulary in the UK. This would work best if the IGP would be empowered to decertify both police officers and police departments after a documented pattern of abusive (“rogue”) policing. The precedents of both Camden, New Jersey, and Northern Ireland are not exact matches, but they do show the potential for reforming any police agency that has become bankrupt in the eyes of key communities.
      PubDate: 2020-06-27
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00046-z
  • Correction to: Designing the Swedish Crime Harm Index: an Evidence-Based
    • Abstract: The graphic for Figure 3 appeared with the caption for Map 1, and the graphic for Map 1 appeared with the caption for Figure 3.
      PubDate: 2020-05-02
      DOI: 10.1007/s41887-020-00045-0
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