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Frontiers in Climate
Number of Followers: 4  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Online) 2624-9553
Published by Frontiers Media Homepage  [96 journals]
  • Carbon Removal Using Coastal Blue Carbon Ecosystems Is Uncertain and
           Unreliable, With Questionable Climatic Cost-Effectiveness

    • Authors: Phillip Williamson, Jean-Pierre Gattuso
      Abstract: Mangrove forests, seagrass meadows and tidal saltmarshes are vegetated coastal ecosystems that accumulate and store large quantities of carbon in their sediments. Many recent studies and reviews have favorably identified the potential for such coastal “blue carbon” ecosystems to provide a natural climate solution in two ways: by conservation, reducing the greenhouse gas emissions arising from the loss and degradation of such habitats, and by restoration, to increase carbon dioxide drawdown and its long-term storage. The focus here is on the latter, assessing the feasibility of achieving quantified and secure carbon removal (negative emissions) through the restoration of coastal vegetation. Seven issues that affect the reliability of carbon accounting for this approach are considered: high variability in carbon burial rates; errors in determining carbon burial rates; lateral carbon transport; fluxes of methane and nitrous oxide; carbonate formation and dissolution; vulnerability to future climate change; and vulnerability to non-climatic factors. Information on restoration costs is also reviewed, with the conclusion that costs are highly uncertain, with lower-range estimates unrealistic for wider application. CO2 removal using coastal blue carbon restoration therefore has questionable cost-effectiveness when considered only as a climate mitigation action, either for carbon-offsetting or for inclusion in Nationally Determined Contributions. Many important issues relating to the measurement of carbon fluxes and storage have yet to be resolved, affecting certification and resulting in potential over-crediting. The restoration of coastal blue carbon ecosystems is nevertheless highly advantageous for climate adaptation, coastal protection, food provision and biodiversity conservation. Such action can therefore be societally justified in very many circumstances, based on the multiple benefits that such habitats provide at the local scale.
      PubDate: 2022-07-28T00:00:00Z
  • Spatio-temporal characteristics of hazardous weather affecting Chinese
           airports based on the ERA5/ERA5-land reanalysis dataset

    • Authors: Ting Lei, Chenxi Jin, Chen Qi
      Abstract: The growing demand for air transportation has led to increased air traffic and airline operations at airports worldwide, while hazardous weather conditions have a considerable impact on the efficiency and safety of air traffic. The long-term and high-resolution state-of-art fifth-generation reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) (ERA5) and ERA5-land provide us a perspective on the climatological characteristics of hazardous weather conditions affecting Chinese airports. These hazardous weather conditions include low-level wind shear (LLWS), limited visibility (LIMV), thunderstorms (TSTMs), and snowfall (SNOW). The LLWS is frequent in winter but rare in summer. At the airports in the north of eastern China, managers should take more precautions about LLWS from February to March and October to November. LIMV is major hazardous weather in the south of eastern China that should be carefully monitored in winter, especially from December to January. In northwestern China, LIMV is rare, especially at Yinchuan and Lanzhou airports. TSTMs frequently occur in South China and Southwest China, especially in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, and eastern Tibet. The corresponding active period is summer. SNOW frequently occurs over the Tibet Plateau and parts of Xinjiang province. SNOW is generally active in early winter (December–January) at Urumchi airport but at Lhasa airport in late winter (February–March). There is no SNOW throughout the year in the south of eastern China. The observations also verify such characteristics of the annual cycles of the four hazardous weather conditions. The trend analysis does not express many warnings on hazardous weather conditions except the SNOW. The SNOW at Lhasa airport shows an increasing trend. Considering the frequent SNOW in Lhasa, more attention should be put to monitoring this weather here.
      PubDate: 2022-07-28T00:00:00Z
  • Editorial: Carbon pricing and trading

    • Authors: Ramazan Sari, Ugur Soytas
      PubDate: 2022-07-26T00:00:00Z
  • Microbial ecosystem responses to alkalinity enhancement in the North
           Atlantic Subtropical Gyre

    • Authors: Adam V. Subhas, Lukas Marx, Sarah Reynolds, Anita Flohr, Edward W. Mawji, Peter J. Brown, B. B. Cael
      Abstract: In addition to reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, actively removing CO2 from the atmosphere is widely considered necessary to keep global warming well below 2°C. Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) describes a suite of such CO2 removal processes that all involve enhancing the buffering capacity of seawater. In theory, OAE both stores carbon and offsets ocean acidification. In practice, the response of the marine biogeochemical system to OAE must be demonstrably negligible, or at least manageable, before it can be deployed at scale. We tested the OAE response of two natural seawater mixed layer microbial communities in the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre, one at the Western gyre boundary, and one in the middle of the gyre. We conducted 4-day microcosm incubation experiments at sea, spiked with three increasing amounts of alkaline sodium salts and a 13C-bicarbonate tracer at constant pCO2. We then measured a suite of dissolved and particulate parameters to constrain the chemical and biological response to these additions. Microbial communities demonstrated occasionally measurable, but mostly negligible, responses to alkalinity enhancement. Neither site showed a significant increase in biologically produced CaCO3, even at extreme alkalinity loadings of +2,000 μmol kg−1. At the gyre boundary, alkalinity enhancement did not significantly impact net primary production rates. In contrast, net primary production in the central gyre decreased by ~30% in response to alkalinity enhancement. The central gyre incubations demonstrated a shift toward smaller particle size classes, suggesting that OAE may impact community composition and/or aggregation/disaggregation processes. In terms of chemical effects, we identify equilibration of seawater pCO2, inorganic CaCO3 precipitation, and immediate effects during mixing of alkaline solutions with seawater, as important considerations for developing experimental OAE methodologies, and for practical OAE deployment. These initial results underscore the importance of performing more studies of OAE in diverse marine environments, and the need to investigate the coupling between OAE, inorganic processes, and microbial community composition.
      PubDate: 2022-07-25T00:00:00Z
  • Four Methodological Guidelines to Evaluate the Research Impact of
           Co-produced Climate Services

    • Authors: Mathilda Englund, Karin André, Åsa Gerger Swartling, Jenny Iao-Jörgensen
      Abstract: As climate change impacts unfold across the globe, growing attention is paid toward producing climate services that support adaptation decision-making. Academia, funding agencies, and decision-makers generally agree that stakeholder engagement in co-producing knowledge is key to ensure effective decision support. However, co-production processes remain challenging to evaluate, given their many intangible effects, long time horizons, and inherent complexity. Moreover, how such evaluation should look like is understudied. In this paper, we therefore propose four methodological guidelines designed to evaluate co-produced climate services: (i) engaging in adaptive learning by applying developmental evaluation practices, (ii) building and refining a theory of change, (iii) involving stakeholders using participatory evaluation methods, and (iv) combining different data collection methods that incorporate visual products. These methodological guidelines offset previously identified evaluation challenges and shortcomings, and can be used to help stakeholders rethink research impact evaluation through their complementary properties to identify complex change pathways, external factors, intangible effects, and unexpected outcomes.
      PubDate: 2022-07-22T00:00:00Z
  • An Efficient Modeling Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of
           Present-Day and Future Fluvial Flooding

    • Authors: Hieu Ngo, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Chris Zevenbergen, Ebru Kirezci, Dikman Maheng, Mohanasundar Radhakrishnan, Assela Pathirana
      Abstract: Risk-informed flood risk management requires a comprehensive and quantitative risk assessment, which often demands multiple (thousands of) river and flood model simulations. Performing such a large number of model simulations is a challenge, especially for large, complex river systems (e.g., Mekong) due to the associated computational and resource demands. This article presents an efficient probabilistic modeling approach that combines a simplified 1D hydrodynamic model for the entire Mekong Delta with a detailed 1D/2D coupled model and demonstrates its application at Can Tho city in the Mekong Delta. Probabilistic flood-hazard maps, ranging from 0.5 to 100 year return period events, are obtained for the urban center of Can Tho city under different future scenarios taking into account the impact of climate change forcing (river flow, sea-level rise, storm surge) and land subsidence. Results obtained under present conditions show that more than 12% of the study area is inundated by the present-day 100 year return period of water level. Future projections show that, if the present rate of land subsidence continues, by 2050 (under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios), the 0.5 and 100 year return period flood extents will increase by around 15- and 8-fold, respectively, relative to the present-day flood extent. However, without land subsidence, the projected increases in the 0.5 and 100 year return period flood extents by 2050 (under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are limited to between a doubling to tripling of the present-day flood extent. Therefore, adaptation measures that can reduce the rate of land subsidence (e.g., limiting groundwater extraction), would substantially mitigate future flood hazards in the study area. A combination of restricted groundwater extraction and the construction of a new and more efficient urban drainage network would facilitate even further reductions in the flood hazard. The projected 15-fold increase in flood extent projected by 2050 for the twice per year (0.5 year return period) flood event implies that the “do nothing” management approach is not a feasible option for Can Tho.
      PubDate: 2022-07-22T00:00:00Z
  • Enhanced weathering potentials—the role of in situ CO2 and grain
           size distribution

    • Authors: Thorben Amann, Jens Hartmann, Roland Hellmann, Elisabete Trindade Pedrosa, Aman Malik
      Abstract: The application of rock powder on agricultural land to ameliorate soils and remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air by chemical weathering is still subject to many uncertainties. To elucidate the effects of grain size distribution and soil partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) levels on CO2 uptake rates, two simple column experiments were designed and filled nearly daily with an amount of water that simulates humid tropical conditions, which prevail in areas known for being hotspots of weathering. Multiple materials (dunite, basanite, agricultural oxisol, a combination of the latter two, and loess) were compared under ambient and 100% CO2 atmosphere. In a second series, single material columns (dunite) were filled with three different grain size distributions. Total alkalinity, pH, major ions, and dissolved silica were determined in the outflow water of the columns for about 300 days. Under ambient atmospheric conditions, the CO2 consumption was the lowest in the oxisol column, with 100 t CO2 km−2 year−1, while dunite and basanite showed similar consumption rates (around 220 t CO2 km−2 year−1). The values are comparable to high literature values for ultramafic lithologies. Interestingly, the mixture of basanite and oxisol has a much higher consumption rate (around 430 t CO2 km−2 year−1) than the basanite alone. The weathering fluxes under saturated CO2 conditions are about four times higher in all columns, except the dunite column, where fluxes are increased by a factor of more than eleven. Grain size distribution differences also play a role, with the highest grain surface area normalized weathering rates observed in the columns with coarser grains, which at first seems counterintuitive. Our findings point to some important issues to be considered in future experiments and a potential rollout of EW as a carbon dioxide removal method. Only in theory do small grain sizes of the spread-material yield higher CO2 drawdown potentials than coarser material. The hydrologic conditions, which determine the residence times in the pore space, i.e., the time available for weathering reactions, can be more important than small grain size. Saturated-CO2 column results provide an upper limit for weathering rates under elevated CO2.
      PubDate: 2022-07-22T00:00:00Z
  • Designing climate information services to enhance resilient farming
           activities: Lessons from Papua New Guinea

    • Authors: Rachel Sarah Friedman, Steven Jeffery Crimp, Ruth Baiga, Kasis Inape, Ellis Mackenzie, Mark Howden
      Abstract: Anthropogenically-driven changes in seasonal climate patterns are already jeopardising traditional farming practices all around the world. These climatic changes increasingly expose farmers to challenging conditions, reducing the efficacy of existing farm practices and productivity. There is a plethora of information, tools, and practices that could be useful for farmers trying to respond to climate variability and change, including climate projections, horticultural advances, and agricultural management best practices. Whilst these tools and knowledge exist, they are often not contextualised in ways that equitably facilitate decision-making and action. To ensure weather and climate information services are accessible and useful to farmers, it is critical to understand and integrate considerations for the desired types, timing, and uses of the information. The one-size-fits-all information services that are often available don’t account for regional or social differences, local physical conditions, or the needs of different populations.In order to improve our understanding of how weather and climate information services can better cater to farmers’ needs when modifying and adapting their goals, risk management, and farm practices, we carried out a household survey in communities across three provinces in Papua New Guinea. The survey was developed to draw out key design considerations for seasonal climate forecasts in terms of timing, type of information, and applications. Based on the clustering and associations of these variables, his study identifies different profiles of information services content. It then examines whether specific profiles are associated with demographic groups or geographic locations. The findings demonstrate gender and geographic differences in the desired bundles of weather and climate information, and therefore can help to pinpoint specific components that would be beneficial to incorporate into extension and outreach programmes in different contexts within Papua New Guinea. This study highlights the value of tailoring weather and climate information services with specific groups of farmers, thereby enabling more equitable access to and use of critical knowledge for smallholders to build the capacity, knowledge, and systems to strategically adapt to climate change. At the same time, this study illustrates areas to gain efficiency and potentially scale up the provision of climate information services.
      PubDate: 2022-07-20T13:30:59Z
  • High-Resolution Decadal Drought Predictions for German Water Boards: A
           Case Study for the Wupper Catchment

    • Authors: Andreas Paxian, Katja Reinhardt, Klaus Pankatz, Alexander Pasternack, Maria Paula Lorza-Villegas, Marc Scheibel, Amelie Hoff, Birgit Mannig, Philip Lorenz, Barbara Früh
      Abstract: Water boards in Germany require decadal predictions to develop optimized management and adaptation strategies, especially within the claims of flood protection and water distribution management. Specifically, the Wupper catchment water board in western Germany is interested in decadal predictions of drought indices, which are correlated to dam water levels. For the management of small catchments, they need multi-year means and multi-year seasonal means of the hydrological seasons for forecast years 1–3 at high spatial resolution. Thus, the MPI-ESM-LR global decadal prediction system with 16 ensemble members at 200 km resolution was statistically downscaled with EPISODES to ~11 km in Germany. Simulated precipitation was recalibrated, correcting model errors and adjusting the ensemble spread. We tested different recalibration settings to optimize the skill. The 3-year mean and 3-year seasonal mean SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index), indicating excess or deficit of precipitation, was calculated. We evaluated the prediction skill with HYRAS observations, applying skill scores and correlation coefficients, and tested the significance of the skill at a 95% level via 1,000 bootstraps. We found that the high-resolution statistical downscaling is able to preserve the skill of the global decadal predictions and that the recalibration can clearly improve the precipitation skill in Germany. Multi-year annual and August–October mean SPI predictions are promising for several regions in Germany. Additionally, there is potential for skill improvement with increasing ensemble size for all temporal aggregations, except for November–January. A user-oriented product sheet was developed and published on the Copernicus Climate Change Service website (https://climate.copernicus.eu/decadal-predictions-infrastructure). It provides 3-year mean probabilistic SPI predictions for the Wupper catchment and north-western Germany. For 2021–2023, a high probability of negative SPI (dry conditions) is predicted in most of the area. The decadal prediction skill is higher than using the observed climatology as reference prediction in several parts of the area. This case study was developed in cooperation with the Wupper catchment water board and discussed with further German water managers: The skill of high-resolution decadal drought predictions is considered to be promising to fulfill their needs. The product sheet is understandable, well-structured and can be applied to their working routines.
      PubDate: 2022-07-19T00:00:00Z
  • Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity in Lombok Strait Reconstructed From
           Coral Sr/Ca and δ18O, 1962–2012

    • Authors: Ai Genda, Minoru Ikehara, Atsushi Suzuki, Ali Arman, Mayuri Inoue
      Abstract: Coral geochemical tracers have been used in studies of the paleoclimatology and paleoceanography of the tropics and subtropics. We measured Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) in a coral sample collected from the southern part of Lombok Strait, a significant outlet of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) to the Indian Ocean, to reconstruct the historical record of sea surface temperature (SST) and seawater δ18O. Seawater δ18O can be used to approximate sea surface salinity (SSS) because it reflects the balance of evaporation and precipitation. The resulting time series reconstructed SST and SSS, covering the period 1962–2012, shows no clear trend of global warming, although the record includes a large cooling event (~4°C) during 1996–1997. Although neither SST nor SSS shows a systematic relationship with El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), weak but significant correlations are found partly. In addition, the coral data show signals of major IOD and El Niño events in 1994 and 1997, respectively, although climatic trends recorded in the coral are not consistent with those found along the Java-Sumatra coast. To evaluate other influences on the ITF in Lombok Strait, we compared our coral record with coral records from sites in the Java Sea, the southern part of Makassar Strait, and Ombai Strait. During the northwest monsoon (December–January–February), variations in SST and SSS at Lombok Strait site are similar to those at the Java Sea and southern Makassar sites for the period 1962–1995, which suggests that low-salinity water from the Java Sea is carried at least to the southern part of Makassar Strait where it suppresses the ITF upstream from Lombok Strait. However, the SST and SSS records differ at the three sites during the southeast monsoon (June–July–August), indicating that surface conditions in Lombok Strait vary separately from those in the Java Sea. In the longer term, although global warming has been widely identified in the Indonesian Seas, the coral record shows no clear warming trend in the southern part of Lombok Strait, where fluctuations in the ITF may be modulating the distribution of heat in the surface waters of the western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean.
      PubDate: 2022-07-18T00:00:00Z
  • Making Direct Air Capture Affordable; Technology, Market and Regulatory

    • Authors: Maximus L. L. Beaumont
      Abstract: Direct Air Capture (DAC) is an important solution to curb global warming and enable a circular economy. As fossil fuels dwindle, carbon for commodities such as plastic, cement, steel and liquid fuel, will need to come from somewhere. With the low cost of industrial CO2 (roughly $80 a ton) as well as the low value of most carbon credits, making DAC-produced CO2 competitive at scale is almost impossible. But what if we could scale DAC processes in markets that make sense now, building on learnings as we go while making industries less carbon intensive' The first such application is air quality and energy efficiency in indoor spaces. DAC technology can stabilize CO2 and water levels inside indoor environments to enhance the recirculation rate of internal air, thereby saving significant energy for the HVAC. Another application is the use of small-scale DAC units—providing CO2 at the scale of kilos a day rather than tons, taking advantage of the high CO2 price at that scale as well as B2C markets that otherwise rely on bottled CO2. The approach is called Decentralised DAC or DDAC (analogous to decentralised solar). DAC processes need to be developed but to scale our learnings and drive down costs, we must fund R&D and introduce a significant carbon tax. Finally, interesting new developments such as electro-swing and humidity-swing carbon capture, have the potential to drastically decrease the energy footprint of DAC (its main cost driver), paving the way to making DAC affordable.
      PubDate: 2022-07-18T00:00:00Z
  • Is Declaring a Climate Emergency Enough to Stop Global Warming'
           Learning From the COVID-19 Pandemic

    • Authors: Jordi Mazon, David Pino, Mireia Vinyoles
      Abstract: One of the most important challenges our global civilization faces in the coming years is to achieve the Paris Agreement's goals of preventing the planet's temperature from exceeding the pre-industrial values of 2°C and limiting it, at most, to 1.5°C. Awareness of this problem has led to the creation of many national and international organizations in recent decades, with many thematic conferences being held and new policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions—so far without attaining the necessary success. Among the political measures taken in recent years is the climate emergency declaration issued by many government institutions, highlighting the serious and urgent problem of climate change and the imperative need to find a solution. The COVID-19 pandemic, has led to reductions in CO2 emissions due to the substantial decreases in economic activity incurred by several countries imposing non-pharmaceutical interventions. Thus, the current practice of declaring a climate emergency must be fortified by making it a legal tool in order to reduce CO2 emissions and reach the objectives set by the Paris Agreement. Yet, what should this climate emergency declaration look like' In considering these current COVID-19-induced reductions in CO2 emissions, we hereby propose a political plan for stopping emissions to try to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement and at least some of the UN's 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. The article also proposes how to define the global climate alarm declaration to serve as an international legal tool for reducing CO2 and transitioning to a world free of these massive emissions. By analyzing the reduction of the emissions in different scenarios based on the COVID-19 pandemic, the article shows that the needed reduction of emissions proposed by the EU in 2030 cannot be reached in any of the scenarios limiting the CO2 emissions.
      PubDate: 2022-07-15T00:00:00Z
  • XCast: A python climate forecasting toolkit

    • Authors: Kyle Joseph Chen Hall, Nachiketa Acharya
      Abstract: Climate forecasts, both experimental and operational, are often made by calibrating Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs with observed climate variables using statistical and machine learning models. Often, machine learning techniques are applied to gridded data independently at each gridpoint. However, the implementation of these gridpoint-wise operations is a significant barrier to entry to climate data science. Unfortunately, there is a significant disconnect between the Python data science ecosystem and the gridded earth data ecosystem. Traditional Python data science tools are not designed to be used with gridded datasets, like those commonly used in climate forecasting. Heavy data preprocessing is needed: gridded data must be aggregated, reshaped, or reduced in dimensionality in order to fit the strict formatting requirements of Python's data science tools. Efficiently implementing this gridpoint-wise workflow is a time-consuming logistical burden which presents a high barrier to entry to earth data science. A set of high-performance, easy-to-use Python climate forecasting tools is needed to bridge the gap between Python's data science ecosystem and its gridded earth data ecosystem. XCast, an Xarray-based climate forecasting Python library developed by the authors, bridges this gap. XCast wraps underlying two-dimensional data science methods, like those of Scikit-Learn, with data structures that allow them to be applied to each gridpoint independently. XCast uses high-performance computing libraries to efficiently parallelize the gridpoint-wise application of data science utilities and make Python's traditional data science toolkits compatible with multidimensional gridded data. XCast also implements a diverse set of climate forecasting tools including traditional statistical methods, state-of-the-art machine learning approaches, preprocessing functionality (regridding, rescaling, smoothing), and postprocessing modules (cross validation, forecast verification, visualization). These tools are useful for producing and analyzing both experimental and operational climate forecasts. In this study, we describe the development of XCast, and present in-depth technical details on how XCast brings highly parallelized gridpoint-wise versions of traditional Python data science tools into Python's gridded earth data ecosystem. We also demonstrate a case study where XCast was used to generate experimental real-time deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in 2022 using different machine learning-based multi-model ensembles.
      PubDate: 2022-07-15T00:00:00Z
  • Internal Climate Variability in the Present Climate and the Change in ENSO
           Amplitude in Future Climate Simulations

    • Authors: Seung-Hwon Hyun, Sang-Wook Yeh, Ben P. Kirtman, Soon-Il An
      Abstract: In this study, we define a metric for the intensity of internal climate variability (ICV) based on global surface temperature in the present climate and suggest that it can be used to understand the diversity of projected changes in ENSO amplitude in the future. We analyze both the 35-member Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble and the 30-members from Geophysical Fluid Dynamical Laboratory Large Ensemble from the present climate to future climate. While ENSO amplitude tends to decrease from the present climate to the end of 21st century in some ensemble member with a strong ICV during the present climate, it increases or stays the same in other ensemble members with a weak ICV. The result indicates that the intensity of ICV in the present climate in climate models may cause the difference of ENSO amplitude changes in a warmer world. Therefore, the intensity of ICV in the present climate should be cautiously examined in climate models to correctly project the ENSO amplitude changes in a changing climate.
      PubDate: 2022-07-12T00:00:00Z
  • Identifying the Barriers and Opportunities in the Provision and Use of
           Weather and Climate Information for Flood Risk Preparedness: The Case of
           Katakwi District, Uganda

    • Authors: Faith Mitheu, Celia Petty, Elena Tarnavsky, Elisabeth Stephens, Luisa Ciampi, Jonah Butsatsa, Rosalind Cornforth
      Abstract: The provision of weather and climate information (WCI) can help the most at-risk communities cope and adapt to the impacts of extreme events. While significant progress has been made in ensuring improved availability of WCI, there remain obstacles that hinder the accessibility and use of this information for adaptation planning. Attention has now focused on the “usability gap” to ensure useful and usable WCI informs practise. Less attention has however been directed on barriers to the active production and use of WCI. In this study, we combine two frameworks through a bottom-up approach to present a more coordinated institutional response that would be required to ensure a better flow of information from information providers to users at community level and vice versa. The bottom-up approach was designed in form of Farmers Agri-Met Village Advisory Clinics (FAMVACs) and Listening Groups (LG) and was initiated by Uganda Meteorological Authority (UNMA) as a way of ensuring connections between the information providers, the disseminators, and the communities to specifically give voice to the communities to provide feedback on the use of WCI in coping with flood risks. This approach is used to identify the barriers and opportunities in the production/provision and use of WCI for flood risk preparedness for a case study in Eastern Uganda. First, a use-case is developed for Katakwi District where smallholder farming communities have recorded their coping practises and barriers to the use of WCI in practise. Second, online interviews with practitioners from disaster management institutions are used to identify barriers to the production and provision of WCI to local farming communities. Findings show that for providers, barriers such as accessibility and completeness of data hinder the production of useful WCI. In situations where useful information is available, technical language used in the format and timeliness in dissemination hinder usability by local farmers. Useful and usable WCI may not be acted on in practise due to factors such as costs or market availability e.g., lack of access to improved seeds. Further, the study highlights possible solutions to bridge the identified gaps and they include capacity building, fostering data collaborations across sectors, data translation to simple advisories, among others. The study also presents the FAMVACs approach which shows the importance of a more coordinated response with a shift of focus from the users of information only, to a more inclusive understanding of the data and information gaps across the wider provider-user landscapes. We argue that this would contribute to more effective disaster management at both the national and local levels.
      PubDate: 2022-07-12T00:00:00Z
  • Decision-Making for Managing Climate-Related Risks: Unpacking the Decision
           Process to Avoid “Trial-and-Error” Responses

    • Authors: Andrew J. Constable, Simon French, Vita Karoblyte, David Viner
      Abstract: We provide an overview of decision support tools and methods that are available for managing climate-related risks and for delivering adaptation and resilience options and solutions. The importance of understanding political, socio-economic and cultural contexts and the decision processes that these tools support is emphasized. No tool or method is universally suited to all circumstances. Some decision processes are structured with formal governance requirements; while others are less so. In all cases, discussions and interactions with stakeholders and other players will have formal and informal aspects. We categorize decision support tools in several broad ways with the aim of helping decision makers and their advisors select tools that are appropriate to their culture, resources and other circumstances. The assessment examines the constraints and methodological assumptions that need be considered.
      PubDate: 2022-07-11T00:00:00Z
  • The European Union's CBAM as a de facto Climate Club: The Governance

    • Authors: Kacper Szulecki, Indra Overland, Ida Dokk Smith
      Abstract: The European Commission has announced far-reaching reforms to accelerate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Among the proposals constituting the European Green Deal is the adoption of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to prevent carbon leakage. In practice, however, CBAM will not only act as a shield for the European Emissions Trading System (ETS) but also incentivize other countries to implement compatible carbon pricing schemes. We argue that the EU's CBAM thus de facto has the features of a climate club, but the current proposals and debate do not address how the club would be governed. While the literature focuses on legal and economic aspects of CBAM design, there is little debate about the governance challenges it entails. We identify two major challenges. CBAM will put pressure on trade partners to introduce carbon pricing and/or bring it into line with the price of EU ETS allowances. However, the future availability and thus price of ETS allowances is determined within the EU. Secondly, the method for calculating embedded carbon is left to the discretion of the European Commission. EU policymakers need to acknowledge the challenges that follow from setting up a de facto climate club, and that addressing them involves a trade-off between maintaining control over the direction and ambition of climate policy and CBAM's legitimacy.
      PubDate: 2022-07-11T00:00:00Z
  • The ABC of Governance Principles for Carbon Dioxide Removal Policy

    • Authors: Matthias Honegger, Christian Baatz, Samuel Eberenz, Antonia Holland-Cunz, Axel Michaelowa, Benno Pokorny, Matthias Poralla, Malte Winkler
      Abstract: Climate change mitigation actions, including those aimed at developing and scaling carbon dioxide removal (CDR) activities spanning the industrial, energy, and agroforestry sector, emerge in a context of internationally shared norms that include governance objectives, legal provisions and informal expectations, and societal expectations. Established governance principles provide normative orientation for policy including when targeting the development and scaling of CDR. Knowledge of these principles can guide effective discussion and evaluation of policy options. To facilitate discussion of mitigation options among experts and CDR practitioners, this study excerpts governance principles from legislative texts, the climate governance literature, and the CDR literature with relevance to CDR policy considerations. To illustrate the relevance of the governance principles found for evaluating policy options, we apply them to three technology groups of CDR: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS), and forestry. This exercise indicates the importance of more intensive attention to the normative dimension of mitigation policies in ongoing deliberative and planning processes. Such efforts can help disentangle normative and factual dimensions and sources of (dis)agreement on the role of CDR in specific climate policy contexts.
      PubDate: 2022-07-06T00:00:00Z
  • Corrigendum: Indirect Effects Negate Global Climate Change Mitigation
           Potential of Substituting Gasoline With Corn Ethanol as a Transportation
           Fuel in the USA

    • Authors: Miguel Brandão
      PubDate: 2022-07-06T00:00:00Z
  • Changes in Climate Extremes and Their Effect on Maize (Zea mays L.)
           Suitability Over Southern Africa

    • Authors: Abel Chemura, Shingirai S. Nangombe, Stephanie Gleixner, Sinclair Chinyoka, Christoph Gornott
      Abstract: Southern Africa has been identified as one of the hotspot areas of climate extremes increasing, at the same time many communities in the region are dependent on rain-fed agriculture, which is vulnerable to these rainfall and temperature extremes. The aim of this study is to understand changes in extreme indices during the agricultural season under climate change and how that affect the modeling of maize suitability in Southern Africa. We analyze the changes in rainfall and its extreme indices (consecutive dry days, heavy rain events and prolonged rainfall events), and temperature and its extreme indices (hot night temperatures, hot day temperatures and frequency of very hot days) from the past (1986–2014) to the future (2036–2064) and integrate these into a maize suitability model. Temperature extremes are projected to increase in both duration and intensity, particularly in the eastern parts of the region. Also, consecutive dry days are projected to increase over larger areas during the agricultural season, while rainfall will be less in sums, heavier in intensity and less prolonged in duration. Including extreme climate indices in maize suitability modeling improves the efficiency of the maize suitability model and shows more severe changes in maize suitability over Southern Africa than using season-long climatic variables. We conclude that changes in climate extremes will increase and complicate the livelihood-climate nexus in Southern Africa in the future, and therefore, a set of comprehensive adaptation options for the agricultural sector are needed. These include the use of heat, drought and high-intensity rainfall tolerant maize varieties, irrigation and/or soil water conservation techniques, and in some cases switching from maize to other crops.
      PubDate: 2022-07-01T00:00:00Z
School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences
Heriot-Watt University
Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK
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