Authors:Mathilde Rainard, Christopher J. Smith, Shonali Pachauri Abstract: An orthodox assumption frames gender equality as a panacea to the climate crisis, whereby empowering women is assumed to have tremendous positive effects on countries' environmental performances. However, the gender-climate nexus literature often disregards feminist epistemology, detrimentally integrating harmful gendered assumptions within its analyses, and therefore policy recommendations. To remedy this, links between gender equality and climate change mitigation action were investigated, through a mixed-method approach, which includes feminist theories. Two metrics of gender equity, the Global Gender Gap Index and the Gender Inequality Index, and their correlations to a sustainability metric, the Environmental Performance Index, were analyzed. This quantitative analysis was enriched by 13 interviews with gender-climate experts. Results showed that, despite statistically significant correlations between both gender equality indices and the Environmental Performance Index, the positive relationship between gender equality and environmental performances is contextual and multi-faceted. Disregarding situated gender constructs, understanding gender as binary, and positing women as a homogeneous group, all mask multiple interactions between gender equality and climate change mitigation. Unveiling these interactions necessitates better integration of radical gender theories within climate change science through interdisciplinary research, permitting epistemological pluralism. To further this, a methodological framework is proposed, to help guide environmental researchers willing to consider gender in their work. Furthermore, the impact of gender mainstreaming within climate policies is explored, presenting subsequent policy recommendations. Finally, findings and the systemic transformation potential of gender equality, amongst other forms of equality, are discussed, reinforcing the idea that there is no climate justice without gender justice, and that justice and equality are cornerstones of sustainable societies. PubDate: 2023-02-02T00:00:00Z
Authors:Boris Dewitte, Emilio Concha, Diego Saavedra, Oscar Pizarro, Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, Daria Gushchina, Marcel Ramos, Aldo Montecinos Abstract: Previous studies have investigated the role of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), a climate mode of the mid-latitudes in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, in favoring the development of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However little is known on how ENSO can influence the development of the PMM. Here we investigate the relationship between ENSO and the South Pacific Meridional Mode (SPMM) focusing on strong SPMM events that follows strong El Niño events. This type of events represents more than 60% of such events in the observational record and the historical simulations of the CESM Large ensemble (CESM-LE). It is first shown that such a relationship is rather stationary in both observations and the CESM-LE. Our analyses further reveal that strong SPMM events are associated with a coastal warming off northern central Chile peaking in Austral winter resulting from the propagation of waves forced at the equator during the development of El Niño events. The time delay between the ENSO peak (Boreal winter) and this coastal warming (Austral winter) can be understood in terms of the differential contribution of the equatorially-forced propagating baroclinic waves to the warming along the coast. In particular, the difference in phase speeds of the waves (the high-order mode the wave the slower) implies that they do not overlap along their propagation south of 20°S. This contributes to the persistence of warm coastal SST anomalies off Central Chile until the Austral summer following the concurrent El Niño event. This coastal warming is favorable to the development of strong SPMM events as the South Pacific Oscillation become active during that season. The analysis of the simulations of the Coupled Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) indicates that very few models realistically simulate this ENSO/SPMM relationship and associated oceanic teleconnection. PubDate: 2023-01-25T00:00:00Z
Authors:Zhen Gao, Shang-Min Long, Jia-Rui Shi, Lijing Cheng, Gen Li, Jun Ying Abstract: The surface ocean mixed layer (OML) is critical for climate and biological systems. Changes in ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) of the Indian Ocean under global warming are examined utilizing outputs from 24 climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models and the Community Earth System Model 1.0 with Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CESM1–CAM5). The results show that the MLD generally decreases in low- and high-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (ssp126 and ssp585). In ssp126 and ssp585, the multi-model ensemble-mean OML, respectively shoals about 5 and 10% over both the northern tropics and southern subtropics, with high model consistency. This robust OML shoaling appears in the 1980s and is closely associated with increased surface buoyancy forcing and weakened winds. In contrast, the OML in the south equatorial Indian Ocean slightly deepens and displays large intermodel differences in the sign and magnitude of the changes. The effects of direct CO2 increase and wind changes on OML changes are further quantified by CESM1–CAM5 partially coupled experiments. The results show that the increased surface net heat flux from direct CO2 increase dominates OML shoaling in the northern tropics. In the southern subtropics, the increased surface heat flux, reduced wind speed, and wind-driven divergence all facilitate the OML shoaling. In the south equatorial Indian Ocean, wind changes generally deepen the OML, consistent with the CMIP6 results. Moreover, the OML shoaling-related upper ocean stratification changes are contributed by both temperature and salinity changes in the northern tropics but dominated by temperature changes south of 10°S. These results highlight the regional differences in MLD changes and their forcing, which is important for understanding regional climate changes and corresponding changes in extreme events and biological systems under global warming. PubDate: 2023-01-25T00:00:00Z
Authors:Kyotaek Hwang, Alex Eklund, Cecily Valdez, Shirley A. Papuga Abstract: Cities such as Detroit, MI in the post-industrial Rust Belt region of the United States, have been experiencing a decline in both population and economy since the 1970's. These “shrinking cities” are characterized by aging infrastructure and increasing vacant areas, potentially resulting in more green space. While in growing cities research has demonstrated an “urban heat island” effect resulting from increased temperatures with increased urbanization, little is known about how this may be different if a city shrinks due to urban decline. We hypothesize that the changes associated with shrinking cities will have a measurable impact on their local climatology that is different than in areas experiencing increased urbanization. Here we present our analysis of historical temperature and precipitation records (1900–2020) from weather stations positioned in multiple shrinking cities from within the Rust Belt region of the United States and in growing cities within and outside of this region. Our results suggest that while temperatures are increasing overall, these increases are lower in shrinking cities than those cities that are continuing to experience urban growth. Our analysis also suggests there are differences in precipitation trends between shrinking and growing cities. We also highlight recent climate data in Detroit, MI in the context of these longer-term changes in climatology to support urban planning and management decisions that may influence or be influenced by these trends. PubDate: 2023-01-23T00:00:00Z
Authors:Kripa Jagannathan, Tapan B. Pathak, David Doll Abstract: The current literature on climate services for farmers predominantly focuses on seasonal forecasts, with an assumption that longer-term climate projections may not be suitable for informing farming decisions. In this paper, we explore whether certain types of long-term climate projections may be useful for some specific types of farming decisions. Through interviews with almond tree crop farmers and farm advisors in California, we examine how farmers perceive the utility and accuracy levels of long-term climate projections and identify the types of projections that they may find useful. The interviews revealed that farmers often perceive long-term climate projections as an extension of weather forecasts, which can lead to their initial skepticism of the utility of such information. However, we also found that when farmers were presented with long-term trends or shifts in crop-specific agroclimatic metrics (such as chill hours or summer heat), they immediately perceived these as valuable for their decision-making. Hence, the manner in which long-term projections are framed, presented, and discussed with farmers can heavily influence their perception of the potential utility of such projections. The iterative conversations as part of the exploratory interview questions, served as a tool for “joint construction of meaning” of complex and ambiguous terms such as “long-term climate projections,” “long-term decisions” and “uncertainty.” This in-turn supported a joint identification (and understanding) of the types of information that can potentially be useful for on-farm adaptive decisions, where the farmer and the interviewer both improvise and iterate to find the best types of projections that fit specific decision-contexts. Overall, this research identifies both the types of long-term climate information that farmers may consider useful, and the engagement processes that are able to effectively elicit farmers' long-term information needs. PubDate: 2023-01-18T00:00:00Z
Authors:Malcolm Fairbrother, Ekaterina Rhodes Abstract: Since introducing a path-breaking carbon tax in 2008, the western Canadian province of British Columbia (BC) has attracted significant attention from climate policy scholars. The enactment of its carbon tax has made the case of BC intriguing, as Canada is a poor climate performer, BC is a fossil fuel producer, and carbon taxes are politically challenging to introduce anywhere. This paper discusses the BC tax, and what lessons it holds for other jurisdictions. We complement existing accounts with new details about key events and developments in recent years, and about climate policymaking in BC generally. While there are features of the tax's design and promotion that would be worth replicating elsewhere, we argue its survival reflects some simple good fortune. Moreover, the case of BC should not be reduced to its tax, as the province has enacted other notable climate policies, some of which have done more to reduce emissions while attracting less public criticism. PubDate: 2023-01-18T00:00:00Z
Authors:Conor Hickey, Sam Fankhauser, Stephen M. Smith, Myles Allen Abstract: The deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) needs to be scaled up to achieve net zero emission pledges. In this paper we survey the policy mechanisms currently in place globally to incentivise CDR, together with an estimate of what different mechanisms are paying per tonne of CDR, and how those costs are currently distributed. Incentive structures are grouped into three structures, market-based, public procurement, and fiscal mechanisms. We find the majority of mechanisms currently in operation are underresourced and pay too little to enable a portfolio of CDR that could support achievement of net zero. The majority of mechanisms are concentrated in market-based and fiscal structures, specifically carbon markets and subsidies. While not primarily motivated by CDR, mechanisms tend to support established afforestation and soil carbon sequestration methods. Mechanisms for geological CDR remain largely underdeveloped relative to the requirements of modelled net zero scenarios. Commercialisation pathways for CDR require suitable policies and markets throughout the projects development cycle. Discussion and investment in CDR has tended to focus on technology development. Our findings suggest that an equal or greater emphasis on policy innovation may be required if future requirements for CDR are to be met. This study can further support research and policy on the identification of incentive gaps and realistic potential for CDR globally. PubDate: 2023-01-18T00:00:00Z
Authors:Tshering Ongmu Sherpa Abstract: IntroductionThere is a dearth of empirical work on indigenous people's perception of the effectiveness of indigenous agricultural knowledge and practices for climate change adaptation, especially in the mountain region. Existing scholarships in Nepal are concentrated on people's perception of climate change and verifying the effects of socio-economic variables on adopting adaptation strategies. There is a lack of application of a socio-psychological model to scrutinize subjective and cognitive factors influencing adaptation.MethodsThis study aims to utilize the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to provide insights into the risk perception of climate change and the perception of adaptation efficacy of indigenous agricultural knowledge and practices. A randomly sampled questionnaire survey and focus group discussions were conducted in five villages in the Khumbu region of Nepal.Results and discussionThe results indicated that indigenous peoples had observed changes in seasonality, a decrease in snowfall frequency, and an increase in rainfall, posing a significant threat to their lives and livelihood. The perception of adaptation efficacy assessment disclosed that indigenous knowledge is effective in adapting to changing climatic conditions. It was found that the knowledge has been evolving and remains dynamic and relevant even in the backdrop of climate change. However, there is a lack of formal recognition of indigenous knowledge by the government authorities. Hence, the study's findings accredit the significance of indigenous knowledge. From the viewpoint of the generational succession of knowledge and devising cost-effective climate change adaptation strategy, it indicates a dire need for its incorporation into local climate policies and action plans. PubDate: 2023-01-18T00:00:00Z
Authors:Emily Black, Dagmawi Teklu Asfaw, Alex Sananka, Stephen Aston, Victoria L. Boult, Ross I. Maidment Abstract: Deciding when to plant is critical for smallholders in Africa. If they plant too early, farmers risk seedling death if the rains are not established; if they plant too late, there will not be enough rain to sustain the crop through critical development periods. In this study, we present a new decision support tool (DST) that accounts for the trade-off in the risks of early and late planting through advisories based on both short- and long-range forecasts of crop water availability. Unlike most existing operational systems, which are based solely on rainfall, the DST presented here uses ensemble forecasts of soil moisture to estimate the optimal planting date at a local scale. Evaluations using >30,000 observations of planting date and yield in Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia and Malawi demonstrate that that planting at the optimal time would increase yield by 7–10% overall, and up to 20% for late planting farmers. The DST has been piloted by One Acre Fund for the 2019–2020, 2020–2021, and 2021–2022 seasons and there is strong demand for the service to be extended further. We conclude from the evaluations and pilots that the planting date DST has the potential to strengthen farmer decision making and hence their resilience to climate variability and change. PubDate: 2023-01-16T00:00:00Z
Authors:Jan Petzold, Elphin T. Joe, Ilan Kelman, Alexandre K. Magnan, Charlotta Mirbach, Gabriela Nagle Alverio, Patrick D. Nunn, Beate M. W. Ratter, The Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative Team Abstract: Islands are at the center of discourses on climate change. Yet despite extensive work on diverse island systems in a changing climate, we still lack an understanding of climate change-related responses amongst islands and what shifting from what might be called “tinkering” (perhaps heat warnings) to “transformational” adaptation (perhaps relocation) means for these vastly different landmasses which are often grouped together by default. Through a systematic review of the climate change adaptation scientific literature, this paper critically reflects on how considering islands as a homogenous ensemble and the use of buzzwords such as “transformational adaptation” may be problematic for diverse island realities under climate change. Our findings show that the adaptation evidence base actually provides literature on contrasting island types and cultural and political contexts, including Small Island Developing States as well as other island territories. This study finds research gaps with respect to regions (e.g., South America, Africa, and Mediterranean) and that there is overall both little evidence of and a lack of context-specific definitions of transformational adaptation in island contexts. The adaptation literature does not yet fully reflect the experiences or needs of islands regarding transitions and transformations throughout history. PubDate: 2023-01-12T00:00:00Z
Authors:Inma Martínez-Zarzoso, Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, Rafael Duarte Lisboa Paschoaleto Abstract: Climate change and natural disasters might increase the vulnerability of populations in affected regions. This article investigates the link between climatic events and bilateral migration from countries in the Global South to OECD countries. A gravity model is estimated using panel data techniques and bearing in mind potential sources of heterogeneity across subsamples. The main novelty is to distinguish by climatic zones, while also considering commonly used social and economic stresses, such as income levels and incidence of conflict. The analysis is based on bilateral emigration flows from 76 developing countries to OECD countries in the last decades. The results show that increasing extreme temperatures and storms in arid and semi-arid zones act as triggers of bilateral migration from South to North and that the estimated effects are non-negligible. The results are robust to a battery of tests, including dividing the sample according to the levels of conflict and poverty. PubDate: 2023-01-12T00:00:00Z
Authors:Emily E. E. M. te Pas, Mathilde Hagens, Rob N. J. Comans Abstract: Enhanced weathering is a negative emission technology that involves the spread of crushed silicate minerals and rocks on land and water. When applied to agricultural soils, the resulting increase in soil pH and release of nutrients may co-benefit plant productivity. Silicate minerals and rocks differ in their enhanced weathering potential, i.e., their potential for both carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration and soil quality improvements. However, studies comparing silicate minerals and rocks for this dual potential are lacking. Therefore, we compared the enhanced weathering potential of olivine (Mg2SiO4), basalt, wollastonite (CaSiO3), and two minerals that are novel in this context, anorthite (CaAl2Si2O8) and albite (NaAlSi3O8). A down-flow soil column experiment was designed allowing for measurements on soils and leachate, and calculations of organic and inorganic carbon budgets. Our results showed comparatively high CO2 capture by enhanced wollastonite and olivine weathering. Furthermore, CO2 capture per m2 specific surface area indicated potential for enhanced anorthite and albite weathering. Calculated carbon budgets showed that most treatments produced net CO2 emissions from soils, likely related to the short duration of this experiment. All silicates generally improved soil quality, with soil nickel contents remaining below contamination limits. However, nickel concentrations in leachates from olivine-amended soils exceeded the groundwater threshold value, stressing the importance of monitoring nickel leaching. We found a relatively high enhanced weathering potential for wollastonite, while the potential for olivine may be constrained by nickel leaching. The promising results for anorthite and albite indicate the need to further quantify their enhanced weathering potential. PubDate: 2023-01-10T00:00:00Z
Authors:Julie Gobert, Florence Rudolf Abstract: IntroductionIn 2018, the Rhine transport sector experienced an unprecedented low water crisis, during which large cargo vessels were no longer able to navigate on certain sections of the river. This led to a major disruption in inland waterway transport. This article aims at questioning how the crisis acted as a stimulus for port authorities and their customers to consider the risks for their assets and operations and as a window of opportunity for creating a new collective and for defining “solutions.”MethodologyInspired by the Impact Chain methodology, a step-by-step protocol integrating focus groups and interviews, was applied so that stakeholders affected by low waters can identify their individual and common vulnerability and define possible ways of acting (pathways).ResultsOne of these pathways, the transitional infrastructural pathway, targets to increase the water level and overcome low water levels (use of Lake Constance as a water reservoir or creation of new water storage areas; deepening of the channel at Kaub and Maxau). It appears as the most suitable because it is a technical, well-controlled process that provides a comfortable solution in the short term. It exemplifies the lock-ins set by infrastructure.DiscussionHowever, the participative approach also highlights the fundamental challenge of developing new processes and new intermodal organizations in the long term. PubDate: 2023-01-10T00:00:00Z
Authors:Yosuke Fujii, Takuma Yoshida, Hiroyuki Sugimoto, Ichiro Ishikawa, Shogo Urakawa Abstract: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) started to use a new global ocean data assimilation system for the operational seasonal predictions in February 2022. The system is composed of two subsystems with non-eddy-permitting (lower) and eddy-permitting (higher) resolutions. The lower-resolution subsystem adopts a four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) method to optimize the temperature and salinity fields, and the data-assimilated fields are downscaled into the higher-resolution subsystem using incremental analysis updates. The impact of introducing the 4DVAR method in the new ocean data assimilation system is investigated through the comparison of a regular reanalysis run of the system using the 4DVAR method with another run using a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) method. A comparison of the temperature fields before the downscaling between the two reanalysis runs indicates that the 4DVAR method can more effectively reduce the misfits between the model field and assimilated observation data. However, the increase of the temperature root mean square difference (RMSD) relative to independent Argo float data, along with the larger variance, for the run with the 4DVAR method reveals that the 4DVAR method adjusts the temperature field more significantly but the adjustments are inconsistent with the independent data due to insufficient model physics and resolution. The increase of the RMSD is mitigated after the assimilated fields are downscaled into the higher-resolution subsystem. The 4DVAR method reduces the bias and RMSD of temperature relative to the independent data along the thermocline, as well as near the surface, in the equatorial vertical section, which is expected to affect the prediction of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). PubDate: 2023-01-10T00:00:00Z
Authors:Cathrine Dyer, Andreas Neef Abstract: In 2006 New Zealand government officials found themselves facing a barrage of enquiries arising from an erroneous claim contained in Al Gore's Academy Award-winning climate change documentary An Inconvenient Truth. The documentary suggested that the government of Aotearoa had agreed to take “all climate refugees” from Tuvalu, an archipelago of nine atolls and coral-reef islands in the South Pacific, as part of a planned response to climate change. At the time, New Zealand did not have any plan, or indeed any intention to create a plan, for addressing climate-induced displacement. The ensuing 15 years saw Aotearoa's official response evolve from one of “correcting misperceptions about New Zealand's position on climate-induced migration” to an adaptive development approach focused on Pacific-led solutions. This paper traces the evolution of that approach through a series of official reviews, focusing on the discursive frames and narratives that were employed by officials and government representatives. The current New Zealand government has expressed a desire to play a role in the development of world-leading approaches to climate-induced mobilities within the region, whilst it also seeks to avoid establishing overly broad policy precedents on climate migration that could apply beyond the Pacific. The paper discusses some of the avenues being explored by government departments, in particular the potential for existing temporary migrant programs to be developed into schemes that actively support an adaptive development framework in response to climate-related mobilities. We consider the range of possible solutions that could be contained within such a response, the opportunities for mutually beneficial approaches and the challenges that they would pose to long-accepted norms and processes embedded in the country's current immigration programs. PubDate: 2023-01-10T00:00:00Z
Authors:Manmeet Singh, Nachiketa Acharya, Pratiman Patel, Sajad Jamshidi, Zong-Liang Yang, Bipin Kumar, Suryachandra Rao, Sukhpal Singh Gill, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Ravi S. Nanjundiah, Dev Niyogi Abstract: Deep learning (DL), a potent technology to develop Digital Twin (DT), for weather prediction using cubed spheres (DLWP-CS) was recently proposed to facilitate data-driven simulations of global weather fields. DLWP-CS is a temporal mapping algorithm wherein time-stepping is performed through U-NET. Although DLWP-CS has shown impressive results for fields, such as temperature and geopotential height, this technique is complicated and computationally challenging for a complex, non-linear field, such as precipitation, which depends on other prognostic environmental co-variables. To address this challenge, we modify the DLWP-CS and call our technique “modified DLWP-CS” (MDLWP-CS). In this study, we transform the architecture from a temporal to a spatio-temporal mapping (multivariate setup), wherein precursor(s) of precipitation can be used as input. As a proof of concept, as a first simple case, a 2-m surface air temperature is used to predict precipitation using MDLWP-CS. The model is trained using hourly ERA-5 reanalysis and the resulting experimental findings are compared to two benchmark models, viz, the linear regression and an operational numerical weather prediction model, which is the Global Forecast System (GFS). The fidelity of MDLWP-CS is much better compared to linear regression and the results are equivalent to GFS output in terms of daily precipitation prediction with 1 day lag. These results provide an encouraging framework for an efficient DT that can facilitate speedy, high fidelity precipitation predictions. PubDate: 2023-01-09T00:00:00Z