Authors:Francesca Peroni, Daniele Codato, Luca Buscemi, Marco Cibrario, Salvatore Eugenio Pappalardo, Massimo De Marchi Abstract: Nature-based solutions (NBSs) are considered essential measures to face climate change in cities. Riparian ecosystems are often undervalued as NBSs even if they represent an “already plugged-in” ecosystem service provider. However, applied research on urban riparian ecosystems is scarce. To fill the gap, this study frames the role of these ecosystems as a frontline mitigation and adaptation strategy by (i) investigating how urban riparian ecosystems experienced a process of urbanization from World War II until today in Padua (Italy), (ii) estimating how effective was carbon sequestration, and (iii) assessing how an afforestation process might contribute to mitigation scenarios. Land use/land cover changes are first mapped with high-resolution aerial images and, by using InVEST models, carbon sequestration is estimated. Results highlight that impervious surfaces notably increased along these ecosystems; hence, carbon sequestration was negative (−928 Mg/C). The future scenario (2022–2050) indicates an increase of carbon stocks (+4,329.95 Mg/C), giving a contribution toward city carbon neutrality. Results suggest that, in the recent past, the urban management and policies did not provide clear and well-defined planning of these areas. On the contrary, at present, urban riparian ecosystems might represent already existing multi-functional NBSs to be restored and enhanced within cities for climate-resilient planning and for increasing the life quality of city dwellers. Finally, our methodology provides a replicable spatial database for supporting urban planning policies. PubDate: 2023-09-28T00:00:00Z
Authors:Graham D. M. Andrews Abstract: Carbon mineralization and storage in basaltic rock sequences is a developing technology but faces challenges with uptake and increases in scale. Northern Ireland (UK) is a useful analog for many parts of the world where thick basalt sequences could be used to aid in reaching carbon reduction and removal targets. Here I reanalyze and reinterpret available lithological, geochemical, and geophysical data to assess carbon storage potential. The physical and geochemical properties of the basalts are indistinguishable from those used for successful carbon sequestration in Iceland and Washington State (USA). Based on the thickness, composition, and potential permeability, I propose that this is a viable location for a series of small-volume stores (total volume ~9–12 MTCO2) suitable for capture at industrial point-sources or purpose-built CO2 “harvesting” facilities. The case for exploiting the CO2 storage potential in Northern Ireland is strengthened by (1) an increasingly urgent need to find socially and economically just decarbonization pathways needed to meet NI's targets, (2) increasing realization among policy experts that point-source CO2 capture and industrial decarbonization will be insufficient to meet those goals, due in part, to the size of the agricultural sector, and (3) the coincidence with plentiful renewable energy and geothermally-sourced industrial heat. These serendipitous relationships could be leveraged to develop CO2-“farms” where direct air capture operations are supplied by renewable energy (biomass and geothermal) and on-site geological storage. I envisage that these sites could be supplemented by CO2 from locally produced biomass as farmers are encouraged to transition away from raising livestock. Because CO2 can be captured directly from the atmosphere or via suitable biomass anywhere, NI's small size and position on the periphery of the UK and Europe need not be a disadvantage. Instead, NI's access to geological storage, renewable energy, and agricultural land may be a boon, and provide new opportunities to become a leader in carbon removal in basalt-covered regions. PubDate: 2023-09-22T00:00:00Z
Authors:Johan Daniel Andersson Abstract: Due to the long timescales and deep uncertainties involved, comprehensive model-building has played a pivotal role in creating shared expectations about future trajectories for addressing climate change processes, mobilizing a network of knowledge-based experts who assist in defining common problems, identifying policy solutions, and assessing the policy outcomes. At the intersection between climate change science and climate governance, where wholly empirical methods are infeasible, numerical simulations have become the central practice for evaluating truth claims, and the key medium for the transport and translation of data, methods, and guiding principles among the actors involved. What makes integrated assessment unique as a comprehensive modeling-effort is that it is explicitly policy-oriented, justified by its policy-relevance. Although recognized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as invaluable to their review assessments, the role of integrated modeling in implementations of the Paris Agreement, such as in impact assessments of climate legislation on the national level, is far less known. Taking as its starting-point the boundary-work carried out in public administration, this paper examines how foresight knowledge produced with the help of model-based scenario analysis has been made relevant in Swedish climate policymaking, focusing on the processes by which key indicators for political action become institutionalized through the choice and use of model parameters. It concludes by arguing for an expanded understanding of policy-relevance, beyond institutional approaches and toward a process-based point of view, treating relevance as something in-the-making. PubDate: 2023-09-22T00:00:00Z
Authors:Lelisa Hordofa, Tamiru Yazew Abstract: IntroductionThe objective of this research was to assess the trends and variability in the BakoTibe district as well as raise awareness among rural farmers.MethodsThe sample of homes included 141 out of 29 participants, all from families headed by a female. The Mann-Kendall trend test and the Sen-slope estimator were used to assess the trend of annual minimum and maximum temperatures and seasonal precipitation for the study areas.Results and discussionThe year, summer, and spring climate variability results were examined, and the CV of spring precipitation was found to be 34.8%, indicating high variability of rainfall. Spring precipitation was more unstable than summer precipitation. Statistically, total annual precipitation, the summer season, and the autumn season all showed positive or no significant trends, while spring and winter precipitation both showed a negative or decreasing trend. The probability of 7, 10, 15, and 20-day dry spells in June, July, August, and September during the main rainy season (summer) was zero. The chance of a 20-day dry spell occurrence was highest from March 1 (61 days) to April 23 (115 days), lowest from April 23 (130 days) to June, July, August, and September 20 (265 days), and highest after the end of September. The dry period lasted 15 days, beginning on March 1 (61 days), ending on May 8 (130 days), and returning to zero from May 8 (130 days) to June, July, August, and September 5 (250 days). The probability of a 10-day dry spell began in March (61) and ended on May 23 (145), with the 7-day dry spell ending on June 23 (160). In this study, annual precipitation and temperature values from 2010 to 2019 were examined. Precipitation and temperature have a positive and significant relationship with corn and teff. Approximately 65.2% of the population reported late precipitation, while 34.8% reported no late precipitation. A premature end to the rains affected the livelihoods of ~73% of those polled. Crop diversification, terracing, tree planting, irrigation cultivation for precocious crops, and non-agricultural activities have all been used to adapt to the effects of climate variability and change. PubDate: 2023-09-22T00:00:00Z
Authors:Phil Renforth, Rob Bellamy, David Beerling, Miranda Boettcher, Davide Bonalumi, Miguel Brandão, Mathias Fridahl, Sabine Fuss, Anders Hansson, Clare Heyward, Ben Kolosz, Patrick Lamers, Duncan McLaren, Raffaella Pomi, Daniel L. Sanchez, Soheil Shayegh, Volker Sick, Mijndert Van der Spek, Vikram Vishal, Jennifer Wilcox PubDate: 2023-09-18T00:00:00Z
Authors:Robel Takele, Roberto Buizza, Matteo Dell'Acqua Abstract: Climate change has been inducing variations in the statistics of both the large-scale weather patterns and the local weather in many regions of the world, and these variations have been affecting several human activities, including agriculture. In this study, we look at the links between large-scale weather patterns and local weather as well as agriculture, with a specific regional focus on Mozambique between 1981 and 2019. First, we investigated linear trends and links between large-scale weather patterns and local weather in the region using the ERA5 dataset. We used the same data to investigate how climate change has been affecting the statistics of large-scale weather patterns. Then, we derived Mozambique country-level cereal yield data from FAO and linked it up with climate and weather data to assess what is the relationship between large-scale patterns and local agronomic outputs using a multiple linear regression (MLR) model with crop yield as the response variable and climate drivers as predictors. The results indicate that in Mozambique, the crop season warmed substantially and consistently with climate change-induced global warming, and the rainy season had become drier and shorter, with precipitation concentrated in fewer, more intense events. These changes in the local weather have been linked to variations in the statistics of large-scale weather patterns that characterize the (large-scale) atmospheric flow over the region. Our results indicate a negative impact on yield associated with climate change, with average yield losses of 20% for rice and 8% for maize over the analyzed period (1981–2019). This negative impact suggests that, at the country scale, further future warming during the growing season may offset some of the cereal yield gains from technological advances. PubDate: 2023-09-14T00:00:00Z
Authors:Riva C. H. Denny, A. Paige Fischer Abstract: IntroductionWhether and under what conditions people are compelled to adapt to climate change is a question of significant policy and scholarly importance. However, little is known about the influence of the characteristics of the climate change events with which people have experience on people's decisions to modify their behavior to reduce risk.MethodsWe used structural equation models to quantitatively analyze survey data that we collected from small woodland owners in areas affected by three types of severe events known to be exacerbated by climate change: droughts, storms, and tree insect and disease outbreaks.ResultsWe found that events with faster onset and termination speeds and greater visibility were associated with people's self-reported experiences of these events and decisions to undertake various practices out of concern about them, likely because events with these characteristics are easier to observe, although there are exceptions.DiscussionThese findings improve scientific understanding of the climate change conditions that compel people to perceive risk and act. PubDate: 2023-09-04T00:00:00Z
Authors:Philipp Heinrich, Stefan Hagemann, Ralf Weisse, Lidia Gaslikova Abstract: IntroductionThe simultaneous occurrence of increased river discharge and high coastal water levels may cause compound flooding. Compound flood events can potentially cause greater damage than the separate occurrence of the underlying extreme events, making them essential for risk assessment. Even though a general increase in the frequency and/or severity of compound flood events is assumed due to climate change, there have been very few studies conducted for larger regions of Europe.MethodsOur work, therefore, focuses on the high-resolution analysis of changes in extreme events of coastal water levels, river discharge, and their concurrent appearance at the end of this century in northern and central Europe (2070–2099). For this, we analyze downscaled data sets from two global climate models (GCMs) for the two emissions scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. First, we compare the historical runs of the downscaled GCMs to historical reconstruction data to investigate if they deliver comparable results for northern and central Europe. Then we study changes in the intensity of extreme events, their number, and the duration of extreme event seasons under climate change.ResultsOur analysis shows increases in compound flood events over the whole European domain, mostly due to the rising mean sea level. In some areas, the number of compound flood event days increases by a factor of eight at the end of the current century. This increase is concomitant with an increase in the annual compound flood event season duration.Discussion/implicationsFurthermore, the sea level rise associated with a global warming of 2K will result in double the amounts of compound flood event days for nearly every European river estuary considered. PubDate: 2023-09-01T00:00:00Z
Authors:João Paulo Braga, Ekkehard Ernst Abstract: The transition to a green economy requires significant resources, both from private investors and public policy makers with important implications for employment and living standards. This paper argues that green macro-economic policies are essential in accelerating the transition through three channels: they can strengthen the price signals from externality pricing; they can mobilize additional public and hybrid funding for green transition projects; and they can soften the social and labor market impact of the transition for those workers currently still employed in polluting industries. The paper provides an overview of the main fiscal, monetary and financial market policies that can help provide the necessary fund for a successful transition. It highlights different trade-offs regarding instrument choice and policy outcomes, notably regarding the need to achieve a transition that is both ecological and socially sustainable. We provide an overview of current policy choices and document their economic, social and ecological outcomes. In particular, we demonstrate that the proper use of price regulation and financial instruments—carbon taxes, cap-and-trade schemes, green bonds, nature-based capital—can mobilize additional resources that can be usefully invested to ensure a socially just transition. PubDate: 2023-08-31T00:00:00Z
Authors:Robert M. Beyer, Jacob Schewe, Guy J. Abel Abstract: Understanding and forecasting human mobility in response to climatic and environmental changes has become a subject of substantial political, societal, and academic interest. Quantitative models exploring the relationship between climatic factors and migration patterns have been developed since the early 2000s; however, different models have produced results that are not always consistent with one another or robust enough to provide actionable insights into future dynamics. Here we examine weaknesses of classical methods and identify next-generation approaches with the potential to close existing knowledge gaps. We propose six priorities for the future of climate mobility modeling: (i) the use of non-linear machine-learning rather than linear methods, (ii) the prioritization of explaining the observed data rather than testing statistical significance of predictors, (iii) the consideration of relevant climate impacts rather than temperature- and precipitation-based metrics, (iv) the examination of heterogeneities, including across space and demographic groups rather than aggregated measures, (v) the investigation of temporal migration dynamics rather than essentially spatial patterns, (vi) the use of better calibration data, including disaggregated and within-country flows. Improving both methods and data to accommodate the high complexity and context-specificity of climate mobility will be crucial for establishing the scientific consensus on historical trends and future projections that has eluded the discipline thus far. PubDate: 2023-08-29T00:00:00Z
Authors:Teresa A. Myers, Connie Roser-Renouf, Edward Maibach Abstract: IntroductionAs emotions are strong predictors of climate policy support, we examined multiple discrete emotions that people experience in reaction to various types of information about climate change: its causes, the scientific consensus, its impacts, and solutions. Specifically, we assessed the relationships between four types of messages and five discrete emotions (guilt, anger, hope, fear, and sadness), testing whether these emotions mediate the impacts of information on support for climate policy.MethodsAn online experiment exposed participants (N = 3,023) to one of four informational messages, assessing participants' emotional reactions to the message and their support for climate change mitigation policies as compared to a no-message control group.ResultsEach message, except the consensus message, enhanced the feeling of one or more emotions, and all of the emotions, except guilt, were positively associated with policy support. Two of the messages had positive indirect effects on policy support: the impacts message increased sadness, which in turn increased policy support, and the solutions message increased hope, which increased policy support. However, the solutions message also reduced every emotion except hope, while the impacts, causes, and consensus messages each suppressed hope.DiscussionThese findings indicate that climate information influences multiple emotions simultaneously and that the aroused emotions may conflict with one another in terms of fostering support for climate change mitigation policies. To avoid simultaneously arousing a positive motivator while depressing another, message designers should focus on developing content that engages audiences across multiple emotional fronts. PubDate: 2023-08-23T00:00:00Z
Authors:Sadegh Eghdami, Valerie Michel, Majid Shafiee-Jood, Garrick Louis Abstract: Due to its inherent multidimensionality and complexities, successful climate adaptation policymaking requires a concerted effort among multiple governance levels. Discovering the challenges and governance gaps can provide insights for policymakers paving the way for more effective policies in the future. This paper intends to provide such analysis for Coastal Virginia, a strategic region in the United States receiving significant climate impacts, particularly sea-level rise (SLR) and flooding. Utilizing semi-structured interviews with the main stakeholders and building on the adaptation framework of Moser and Ekstrom, we identify, categorize, and relate main adaptation challenges to better understand the gaps and underlying institutional dynamics causing them. Intergovernmental coordination and comprehensive planning and prioritization are the main overarching challenges, with high emphasis in the literature, while the challenge of retreat and the private sector are less discussed. It is followed by recommendations for different levels of government, informing the path forward from the stakeholders' perspective. A discussion of findings provides several implications for local, state, and federal policymakers. This research could be extended to other coastal and non-coastal areas to help formulate national and sub-national adaptation policies that maintain a holistic vision for adaptation policymaking while pondering the context-specificities of states, regions, and localities. It would be an essential task as adapting to climate change is still in its infancy stages, with the prospect of staying with us for decades to come. PubDate: 2023-08-23T00:00:00Z
Authors:Ralph Chami, Connel Fullenkamp, Andres González Gómez, Nathalie Hilmi, Nicolas E. Magud Abstract: The 2015 Paris Agreement requires all nations to combat climate change and to adapt to its effects. Countries promise to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through their Nationally Determined Contributions. Pledges to reduce emissions, however, have implications for economic growth. We estimate the link between economic growth and CO2 pollution levels and find that this relationship is highly non-linear. A country's GHG emissions rise rapidly as its economic activity rises, relative to global activity, meaning that fast-growing countries contribute most heavily to current GHG emissions. Then, using real per-capita GDP as our metric, we estimate how much the carbon price should be in order to remove the economic growth benefit from excess GHG emissions. We find that the implied prices are far higher than the prices on any existing market for emissions as well as estimates of the social cost of carbon. Our findings also have important implications for the global dialogue regarding responsibility for climate mitigation as well as for the choice of policies to support mitigation efforts. PubDate: 2023-08-17T00:00:00Z
Authors:Irene Schicker, Johanna Ganglbauer, Markus Dabernig, Thomas Nacht Abstract: IntroductionWith hydropower being the dominant source of renewable energy in Austria and recent years being disproportionally dry, alternative renewable energy sources need to be tapped to compensate for the reduction of fossil fuels and account for dry conditions. This becomes even more important given the current geopolitical situation. Wind power plays an essential role in decarbonizing Austria's electricity system. For local assessments of historic, recent, and future wind conditions, adequate climate data are essential. Reanalysis data, often used for such assessments, have a coarse spatial resolution and could be unable to capture local wind features relevant for wind power modeling. Thus, raw reanalysis data need post-processing, and the results need to be interpreted with care. The purpose of this study is to assess the quality of three reanalysis data sets, such as MERRA-2, ERA5, and COSMO-REA6, for both surface level and hub height wind speed and wind power production at meteorological observation sites and wind farms in flat and mountainous terrain. Furthermore, the study aims at providing a first knowledge baseline toward generating a novel wind speed and wind power atlas at different hub heights for Austria with a spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km and for an experimental region with sub-km resolution. Thus, the study tries to answer (i) the questions if the reanalysis and analysis data can reproduce surface-level wind speed and (ii) if wind power calculations based on these data can be trusted, providing a knowledge base for future wind speed and wind power applications in complex terrain.MethodsFor that purpose, a generalized additive model (GAM) is applied to enable a data-driven gridded surface wind speed analysis as well as extrapolation to hub heights as a first step toward generating a novel wind speed atlas. In addition, to account for errors due to the coarse grid of the re-analysis, the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA) and the Global Wind Atlas (GWA) are used for correction using an hourly correction factor accounting for diurnal variations. For the analysis of wind power, an empirical turbine power curve approach was facilitated and applied to five different wind sites in Austria.Results and discussionThe results showed that for surface-level wind speed, the GAM outperforms the reanalysis data sets across all altitude levels with a mean average error (MAE) of 1.65 m/s for the meteorological sites. It even outperforms the NEWA wind atlas, which has an MAE of 3.78 m/s. For flat regions, the raw reanalysis matches the production data better than NEWA, also for hub height wind speeds, following wind power. For the mountainous areas, a correction of the reanalysis data based on the NEWA climatology, or even the NEWA climatology itself, significantly improved wind power evaluations. Comparisons between modeled wind power time series and real data show mean absolute errors of 8% of the nominal power in flat terrain and 14 or 17% in mountainous terrain. PubDate: 2023-08-09T00:00:00Z
Authors:Hugh B. Roland Abstract: Migration as adaptation implies agency, yet environmental and non-environmental factors and their interactions may limit the availability of adaptation options, including migration. This study investigates migration agency in the Marshall Islands, particularly the role of geographic isolation and climate change. Interviews with internal migrants living in Majuro and members of government and civil society reveal how social, economic, cultural, and environmental factors shape migration contexts. Results suggest that geographic isolation-related factors may increase likelihoods of simultaneously more compelled and more constrained moves, particularly as climate change impacts increase. Climate change-related impacts on resource-dependent livelihoods may compel migration in search of new economic opportunities. However, worsening environmental conditions may also exacerbate cost-related migration constraints by reducing the resources available to support migration. PubDate: 2023-08-04T00:00:00Z
Authors:Miriam R. Aczel, Therese E. Peffer Abstract: Given the uncertainty around climate change and the need to design systems that anticipate future needs, risks, and costs or values related to resilience, the current rules-based regulatory and policy frameworks designed for the centralized system of large-scale energy generation and delivery may not be ‘fit for purpose' for smaller scale local installations centered on community microgrids. This research examines regulatory challenges and potential impediments to implementing a multi-customer community-based microgrid in California through discussion of lessons learned in current pilot projects supported in part by initiatives of the California Energy Commission's Electric Program Investment Charge (EPIC). The extent to which regulation has the flexibility to anticipate future needs and risks and support experimentation is evaluated in light of the state's complex and evolving energy system requirements. To illustrate challenges, two case studies of EPIC-supported projects are included. Multiple uncertainties, including future impacts of climate change, energy demands, and advances in technology, highlight the potential need to rethink best approaches to energy regulation. Principles drawn from Resilience Thinking and Anticipatory Regulation are discussed for their potential value in supporting development of new models for community-scale energy production, distribution, and use. Drawing on the experiences of the pilot projects, suggested principles to guide a new regulatory regime specific to microgrids are proposed. PubDate: 2023-08-03T00:00:00Z
Authors:Mandela C. M. Houngnibo, Bernard Minoungou, Seydou B. Traore, Ross I. Maidment, Agali Alhassane, Abdou Ali Abstract: Satellite rainfall estimation products (SRPs) can help overcome the absence of rain gauge data to monitor rainfall-related risks and provide early warning. However, SRPs can be subject to several sources of errors and need to be validated before specific uses. In this study, a comprehensive validation of nine high spatial resolution SRPs (less than 10 km) was performed on monthly and dekadal time scales for the period 2001–2015 in West Africa. Both SRPs and reference data were remapped to a spatial resolution of 0.1 ° and the validation process was carried out on a grid scale, with 1,202 grids having at least one rain gauge throughout West Africa. Unconditional statistical metrics, such as mean absolute error, Pearson correlation, Kling-Gupta efficiency and relative bias, as well as the reproducibility of rainfall seasonality, were used to describe the agreement between SRPs and reference data. The PROMETHEE II multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method was employed to rank SRPs by considering criteria encompassing both their intrinsic characteristics and performance metrics. Overall, IMERGv6-Final, MSWEPv2.2, RFE2, ARC2, and TAMSATv3.1, performed reasonably well, regardless of West African climate zones and rainy season period. Given the performances displayed by each of these SRPs, RFE2, ARC2, and MSWEPv2.2 would be suitable for drought monitoring. TAMSATv3.1, IMERGv6-Final, RFE2, ARC2, and MSWEPv2.2 are recommended for comprehensive basin water resources assessments. TAMSATv3.1 and MSWEPv2.2 would be of interest for the characterization of variability and long-term changes in precipitation. Finally, TAMSATv3.1, ARC2, and MSWEPv2.2, could be good alternatives to observed data as predictants in West African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF) process. PubDate: 2023-07-24T00:00:00Z
Open Access journal
