Authors:Jan Knappe, Manfred van Afferden, Jan Friesen Abstract: Urban blue-green infrastructures (BGIs) fulfill a variety of functions that enable cities to cope with climate change and additional urban anthropogenic pressures such as increasing population density, heat island effects, biodiversity loss, and progressive sealing of permeable surfaces. In the urban water cycle, BGIs can play an important role when it comes to both managing and mitigating the direct effects of ever-increasing periods of extended drought as well as the temporary excess of stormwater during and after heavy rainfall events. Although BGIs are multifunctional in principle, the individual infrastructure has to be designed and operated toward achieving a set of specific objectives, e.g., stormwater retention, infiltration, or storage for increased overall water resilience. In this study, we focus on green roofs as a key BGI for water resilient urban spaces. Green roofs have the advantage of unlocking underutilized roof space for urban water management and additional co-functions, avoiding additional urban land use conflicts at ground level. Green roofs are available in a multitude of design types based on the selection of vegetation, the make and thickness of the substrate layer, and the absence or presence of additional retention space. With GR2L, we present a robust dual-layer green roof water balance model that is able to cope with a variety of design aspects and was validated and calibrated using a data set of four green roof types with varying technical specifications and different vegetation cover. We used the calibrated models to assess how different green roof types operate under variable climatic conditions using meteo ensembles that consist of dry and wet years as well as a suite of randomly selected years. Calibration results indicate that a green roof factor (based on the classic crop factor) largely depending on the retention capacity of green roofs, makes the results widely applicable in planning. The results provide information on how green roof designs can be optimized for fulfilling a given set of water balance-driven multifunctionality objectives under varying climatic conditions and enabling an assessment of the performance of existing green roof designs against these conditions. PubDate: 2023-03-16T00:00:00Z
Authors:Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath, Babu Ram Sharma, G. S. Gopikrishnan Abstract: The Hindu Kush Himalaya and Tien Shan Mountain regions together are called the Third Pole (TP) of Earth, which encompasses ecologically fragile regions of 12 Asian countries. It is the highest mountain chain with the largest reserve of fresh ice mass on the planet outside the northern and southern polar regions. The TP region is experiencing high rate of glacier melting due to climate change for the past few decades, and is a great concern for water security of South Asia. Since changes in ozone concentrations in the atmosphere affect public health, ecosystem dynamics and climate, it is imperative to monitor its temporal evolution in an ecologically sensitive region such as TP. Here, the spatiotemporal characteristics of total column ozone (TCO) in TP and 20 selected cities in and around TP are investigated using a combined long-term data made from the satellite measurements of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-2B for the period 2005–2020. The spatial trends in TCO over TP are mostly negative in summer and autumn (from −0.2 DU/yr to −0.6 DU/yr), but positive in winter (up to +0.2 DU/yr). Among the selected 20 urban regions, the highest annual trend −0.42 ± 0.3 DU/yr and the lowest −0.01 ± 0.2 DU/yr are estimated in Xining and Chittagong, respectively. Analysis using a multiple regression model reveals that the ozone variability in TP is mostly driven by tropopause height with a contribution of 24.92%, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (23.42%), aerosols (16.12%) and solar flux (15.34%). Our study suggests that the observed negative trend is mainly associated with human activities and climate change in TP, which would likely to enhance the surface temperature and thus, melting of glaciers in the region. PubDate: 2023-03-14T00:00:00Z
Authors:Dennis Mombauer, Ann-Christine Link, Kees van der Geest Abstract: Climate change is altering human mobility patterns across the globe, particularly in climate-vulnerable developing countries. With increasing recognition of the complex interlinkages between climate change and human mobility, governments and subnational authorities have begun to address this nexus in planning and policy processes, including Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). To better understand how human mobility is integrated into NDCs and NAPs, we analyzed 171 NDCs and 40 NAPs, and conducted 20 semi-structured interviews and 16 workshops and webinars. We find that human mobility is increasingly featured in NDCs, but only few countries propose concrete interventions to address adverse effects or promote adaptive aspects of human mobility. The study also finds that many countries primarily focus on mobility as a risk, challenge, or problem while some have incorporated positive aspects of mobility (e.g., migration as an adaptation strategy). Through six concise case studies, the paper focuses on good practices from specific NDCs and NAPs that can enhance the integration of human mobility in a range of priority policy sectors for adaptation and loss and damage. To move forward, interviewees and workshop participants emphasized the need for adequate finance, institutional capacities, and data to strengthen the integration of human mobility into NDCs and NAPs. There is a need to identify and better understand potential policy interventions at the local, national, and global level, and to assess their impact and map potential synergies. PubDate: 2023-03-14T00:00:00Z
Authors:Adrian Felipe dos Santos, Flávio Rafael Trindade Moura, Marcos César da Rocha Seruffo, Waldeir Pereira dos Santos, Gabriel Brito Costa, Fernando Augusto Ribeiro Costa Abstract: The meteorological imbalances in Brazil have a strong impact on the lives of the population across the country, especially in the Amazon region. These impacts extend to meteorological phenomena, such as extreme rainfall, droughts, and an increase in temperature in several regions, as well as impacts on health, the economy, and, as the object of this study, the quality of life. This study presents the impact of meteorological changes on the quality of life in the Amazon region, based on (i) the thermal discomfort index (TDI), (ii) the temperature and humidity index (THI), and (iii) the effective temperature index as a function of the wind (TEFW). For this, meteorological data from the years 2003–2021 were used, in which the variables include total precipitation, global radiation, air-dry bulb temperature, the maximum temperature in the previous hour, the minimum temperature in the previous hour, relative humidity, and wind speed. This analysis indicates that for this tropical region, the sensation of mild discomfort was predominant in about 70% of the measurements, indicating a certain level of impact on the population's quality of life, in addition to the fluctuation of levels of discomfort during periods of winter in that there are high rates of precipitation. The data control was performed with the removal of null data and calculation of monthly and annual averages, by using the compression (average) empty data frames in order to receive the values without losing the indexing of dates. At first, it was considered to use the kriging process to fill in the missing data; however, due to the existence of microclimates in the regions, the data could characterize remote regions in a generalized way, which would make it difficult to understand these data in comparison with the data from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET, in Portuguese). PubDate: 2023-03-13T00:00:00Z
Authors:Annah Piggott-McKellar, Karen Vella Abstract: Planned Relocation is a form of mobility in response to climate-related shocks and slow onset change. While the primary focus of the seminal Foresight report on Migration and Environmental Change dealt with mobility processes of migration and displacement, planned relocation was discussed as a viable, yet fraught adaptation strategy. Since the publication of the Foresight report in 2011, considerable research into planned relocation has progressed understanding, in part due to the emerging case study examples globally over the last 10 years. The authors of this article have undertaken research in communities across Australia and Fiji who have initiated and undertaken planned relocation processes, to varying degrees of completion and success. As part of the Research Topic—Climate Migration Research and Policy Connections: Progress Since the Foresight Report—in this article we look back at the lessons that emerged from the Foresight report, and provide key insights from our experiences, as well as through drawing on the broader literature, and through doing so offer lessons learned, and policy insights for planned relocation across these regions, and beyond. This research is especially relevant given the context of planned relocation in these two nations: Australia, a country that has experienced severe fires and flooding events over the last few years, which have raised important questions around the role planned relocation may play in future national adaptation discussions and planning, with buy-back schemes occurring across the country; and Fiji, a country at the forefront of planned relocation globally, with 800 communities listed as in need of relocation by the Government of Fiji, and numerous cases of completed, initiated and planned relocation emerging. Primary findings indicate: there are examples of people choosing to remain in sites of exposure despite relocation plans, making the notion of “voluntariness” essential; relocation has the potential to be a successful adaptation option if planned well with strong participatory governance; a need to think broadly and holistically around the needs and livelihoods of effected communities in relocation planning; and the need for longitudinal studies to track the implications and impacts (both positive and negative) of relocation in the long term. PubDate: 2023-03-02T00:00:00Z
Authors:Nadia Boschi Abstract: Climate-related transitional and physical risks are relevant to the building industry. This paper focuses on the physical risk as mitigated and embedded into the design of buildings and infrastructures at the Milan Innovation District (MIND). MIND is an Italian development piloting the transition to resilient green urban planning. This paper discusses the methodology adopted at the early stages of urban and building design to assess the local climate change risks and impacts to be mitigated. As per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the climate change scenarios are based on projected temperature changes under representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The scenarios considered are 4.5 and 8.5. Climate projections are from the World Bank Change Knowledge Portal and the projected epw Weatherfiles for Milano Linate. These were generated using IES and Weathershift™ tool. The analysis focused on the temperature raise including the masterplan sunlight analysis, the spatial thermal comfort analysis, and the climate change visualization. Results show that the risk of overheating increases. These were discussed in climate change adaptation and resilience planning workshops with a broad range of stakeholders to identify key strategies and functional distribution de-risking strategies. Climate change poses a significant risk to society and resiliency and decarbonization priorities may differ by region. Although, This paper proposes a replicable high-level assessment that can help developers and business leaders in mapping and mitigate the climate capital-related downside risks that have a material impact on their business overall risk profile and capital adequacy. PubDate: 2023-03-01T00:00:00Z
Authors:Popat Salunke, Narayan Prasad Keshri, Saroj Kanta Mishra, S. K. Dash Abstract: Ninety climate models, from four consortiums—CMIP5, CMIP6, NEX-GDDP, and CORDEX—are evaluated for the simulation of seasonal temperature and precipitation over India, and subsequently, using the best ones, their future projections are made for the country. NEX-GDDP is found to be the best performer for the simulation of surface air temperature for all the four seasons. For the simulation of precipitation, CMIP6 performs the best in DJF and MAM seasons, while NEX-GDDP performs the best in JJAS and ON seasons. The selected models suggest that temperature will increase over the entire Indian landmass, relatively more over the north-western part of the country. Furthermore, the rate of warming will be more in winter than in summer. The models also suggest that precipitation will increase over central eastern and north-eastern India in the monsoon season, and over peninsular India during post-monsoon months. PubDate: 2023-02-24T00:00:00Z
Authors:Aslak-Antti Oksanen Abstract: Indigenous peoples are amongst those most vulnerable to the effects of climate change and any potential environmental effects of geoengineering projects. It is therefore not surprising that the Sámi Council decided to take an open stance on the SCoPEx solar geoengineering research project upon finding out of its planned test flight near Giron/Kiruna, Sweden, in the Sámi people's domicile area. In their open letter to the to the SCoPEx Advisory Committee, the Swedish Space Corporation and the Swedish government, the Sámi Council objected to the lack of any consultations with the Sámi people and the aims of the project, resulting in cancellation of the flight. As the Sámi Council has a strong track record of leadership among indigenous peoples globally, this intervention has implications for the role of indigenous peoples in relation to the question of geoengineering. This paper uses a discourse analytical method to analyse publicly available sources to map out the background for the Sámi Council's intervention against the SCoPEx project and its future implications. It finds that the manner in which the SCoPEx project's test flight was planned on Sámi domicile area, without any consultations, led the Sámi Council to find joint cause with environmental civil society groups opposed to geoengineering. Subsequently, the Sámi Council has taken an active role in rallying further indigenous opposition to the SCoPEx project and by extension geoengineering research. It is argued that this coalition of indigenous peoples' organizations and environmental civil society organizations is premised on a discursive framing of an opposition between nature-based solutions to climate change and, geoengineering as representative of a technological solution that allows extractive capitalism to persist. The Sámi Council's intervention has important humanitarian implications. As indigenous peoples are uniquely vulnerable to any environmental changes resulting from geoengineering, the Sámi Council's intervention and its outcome sets a precedent of indigenous peoples as stakeholders in the geoengineering question, whose views must be respected and interests safeguarded. PubDate: 2023-02-21T00:00:00Z
Authors:Heleen Mees, Jana Surian Abstract: Climate change has been framed as a threat to human security and has therefore become securitized, scholars argue. But what about the securitization of climate change adaptation as a policy response to fight climate change' Adaptation has risen on political agendas worldwide, and a few scholars have found some early signs of the securitization of adaptation at UN/EU levels. This paper analyzes how and to what extent adaptation has become securitized at national level, studying The Netherlands as one of the frontrunners in adaptation. We compared the levels of securitization for different adaptation issues, based on content analysis of 19 general and sectoral national policy documents and 7 in-depth interviews with national policy makers and experts. Securitization is studied with respect to the discourses used to frame the climate as a risk or threat, and the actors and tools that are put forward to address the climate risk or threat. The results show that climate change has made Dutch adaptation to flood risks even more prominent: in the two most important national policy documents climate change is framed as a wake-up call to speed up the plans and actions of the longstanding Delta program to protect The Netherlands against flooding. We also see considerable differences between the levels of securitization for different adaptation issues. Water-related adaptation issues show signs of riskification, while the same cannot be said for adaptation to heat stress and drought. Furthermore, most attention goes to the governance of adaptation in the built environment, while neglecting the social and health care domains and the need to take account of the capabilities of at-risk citizen groups. By applying the securitization lens this research has yielded new insights into national adaptation policy development. Future research could develop a better understanding of how securitization tendencies travel across different governance scales; for instance, on how national level discourses influence securitization of adaptation at the local level. PubDate: 2023-02-15T00:00:00Z
Authors:Fiona Köhnke, Bettina Steuri, Juliane El Zohbi, Knut Görl, Malgorzata Borchers, Johannes Förster, Daniela Thrän, Nadine Mengis, Andreas Oschlies, Daniela Jacob Abstract: Limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, as agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement, requires global carbon neutrality by mid-century at the latest. The corresponding carbon budget is decreasing steadily and significantly. To phase out carbon emissions in line with the specified temperature target, countries are formulating their mitigation efforts in their long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS). However, there are no standardized specifications for preparing these strategies, which is why the reports published to date differ widely in terms of structure and scope. To consider the multiple facets of reaching net-zero from a systemic perspective as comprehensively as possible, the authors propose the Net-Zero-2050 System: A novel, transferrable systems approach that supports the development of national endeavors toward carbon neutrality. The Net-Zero-2050 System is defined by three interconnected components: The Carbon-Emission-Based System, the surrounding Framing System and a set of system boundaries. For both systems levels, IPCC approaches were used as a basis and were then adjusted and supplemented by Net-Zero-2050. We suggest applying the Net-Zero-2050 System—beyond the project environment—in carbon emission based contexts at different levels. Especially at the national level, this would improve the comparability of the different national strategies to achieve carbon neutrality. PubDate: 2023-02-09T00:00:00Z
Authors:Daniel Lückerath, Erich Rome, Katharina Milde Abstract: As the climate crisis accelerates, the resilience of Europe's aging critical infrastructure systems shifts more and more into focus. However, the rising interconnectedness of critical infrastructure systems and the dependency of their operation on multiple stakeholders makes approaches that target the resilience of isolated infrastructures insufficient and might even result in a decrease of the resilience of the whole system. This need for more resilience thinking in interconnected infrastructure systems has resulted in advances in risk analyses of supply chains and analyses of interdependencies in infrastructure systems from a Critical Infrastructure Protection/Resilience perspective. However, results from such analyses on the level of interconnected infrastructure systems have seldomly be broken down to the level of individual corporate value chains, a necessity as national/regional resilience efforts need to be supported on the local level. In this paper we therefore propose a novel approach for value chain climate risk and vulnerability analysis that combines a participatory, indicator-based approach with a semi-quantitative risk matrix approach to allow linking analyses from national to local scale and supports economic assessment of climate change impacts for individual businesses. This approach has been developed and prototypically applied in a case study in a German metropolitan area located at the Rhine River. The results allow to identify where along the dependency chains of interconnected infrastructure systems, hazards and impacts might manifest, which cascading (economic) impacts result on the level of individual infrastructure operators, and where resilience measures should be taken to be most effective and (cost) efficient. PubDate: 2023-02-09T00:00:00Z
Authors:Mathilde Rainard, Christopher J. Smith, Shonali Pachauri Abstract: An orthodox assumption frames gender equality as a panacea to the climate crisis, whereby empowering women is assumed to have tremendous positive effects on countries' environmental performances. However, the gender-climate nexus literature often disregards feminist epistemology, detrimentally integrating harmful gendered assumptions within its analyses, and therefore policy recommendations. To remedy this, links between gender equality and climate change mitigation action were investigated, through a mixed-method approach, which includes feminist theories. Two metrics of gender equity, the Global Gender Gap Index and the Gender Inequality Index, and their correlations to a sustainability metric, the Environmental Performance Index, were analyzed. This quantitative analysis was enriched by 13 interviews with gender-climate experts. Results showed that, despite statistically significant correlations between both gender equality indices and the Environmental Performance Index, the positive relationship between gender equality and environmental performances is contextual and multi-faceted. Disregarding situated gender constructs, understanding gender as binary, and positing women as a homogeneous group, all mask multiple interactions between gender equality and climate change mitigation. Unveiling these interactions necessitates better integration of radical gender theories within climate change science through interdisciplinary research, permitting epistemological pluralism. To further this, a methodological framework is proposed, to help guide environmental researchers willing to consider gender in their work. Furthermore, the impact of gender mainstreaming within climate policies is explored, presenting subsequent policy recommendations. Finally, findings and the systemic transformation potential of gender equality, amongst other forms of equality, are discussed, reinforcing the idea that there is no climate justice without gender justice, and that justice and equality are cornerstones of sustainable societies. PubDate: 2023-02-02T00:00:00Z
Authors:Boris Dewitte, Emilio Concha, Diego Saavedra, Oscar Pizarro, Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, Daria Gushchina, Marcel Ramos, Aldo Montecinos Abstract: Previous studies have investigated the role of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), a climate mode of the mid-latitudes in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, in favoring the development of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However little is known on how ENSO can influence the development of the PMM. Here we investigate the relationship between ENSO and the South Pacific Meridional Mode (SPMM) focusing on strong SPMM events that follows strong El Niño events. This type of events represents more than 60% of such events in the observational record and the historical simulations of the CESM Large ensemble (CESM-LE). It is first shown that such a relationship is rather stationary in both observations and the CESM-LE. Our analyses further reveal that strong SPMM events are associated with a coastal warming off northern central Chile peaking in Austral winter resulting from the propagation of waves forced at the equator during the development of El Niño events. The time delay between the ENSO peak (Boreal winter) and this coastal warming (Austral winter) can be understood in terms of the differential contribution of the equatorially-forced propagating baroclinic waves to the warming along the coast. In particular, the difference in phase speeds of the waves (the high-order mode the wave the slower) implies that they do not overlap along their propagation south of 20°S. This contributes to the persistence of warm coastal SST anomalies off Central Chile until the Austral summer following the concurrent El Niño event. This coastal warming is favorable to the development of strong SPMM events as the South Pacific Oscillation become active during that season. The analysis of the simulations of the Coupled Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) indicates that very few models realistically simulate this ENSO/SPMM relationship and associated oceanic teleconnection. PubDate: 2023-01-25T00:00:00Z
Authors:Zhen Gao, Shang-Min Long, Jia-Rui Shi, Lijing Cheng, Gen Li, Jun Ying Abstract: The surface ocean mixed layer (OML) is critical for climate and biological systems. Changes in ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) of the Indian Ocean under global warming are examined utilizing outputs from 24 climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models and the Community Earth System Model 1.0 with Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CESM1–CAM5). The results show that the MLD generally decreases in low- and high-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (ssp126 and ssp585). In ssp126 and ssp585, the multi-model ensemble-mean OML, respectively shoals about 5 and 10% over both the northern tropics and southern subtropics, with high model consistency. This robust OML shoaling appears in the 1980s and is closely associated with increased surface buoyancy forcing and weakened winds. In contrast, the OML in the south equatorial Indian Ocean slightly deepens and displays large intermodel differences in the sign and magnitude of the changes. The effects of direct CO2 increase and wind changes on OML changes are further quantified by CESM1–CAM5 partially coupled experiments. The results show that the increased surface net heat flux from direct CO2 increase dominates OML shoaling in the northern tropics. In the southern subtropics, the increased surface heat flux, reduced wind speed, and wind-driven divergence all facilitate the OML shoaling. In the south equatorial Indian Ocean, wind changes generally deepen the OML, consistent with the CMIP6 results. Moreover, the OML shoaling-related upper ocean stratification changes are contributed by both temperature and salinity changes in the northern tropics but dominated by temperature changes south of 10°S. These results highlight the regional differences in MLD changes and their forcing, which is important for understanding regional climate changes and corresponding changes in extreme events and biological systems under global warming. PubDate: 2023-01-25T00:00:00Z
Authors:Kyotaek Hwang, Alex Eklund, Cecily Valdez, Shirley A. Papuga Abstract: Cities such as Detroit, MI in the post-industrial Rust Belt region of the United States, have been experiencing a decline in both population and economy since the 1970's. These “shrinking cities” are characterized by aging infrastructure and increasing vacant areas, potentially resulting in more green space. While in growing cities research has demonstrated an “urban heat island” effect resulting from increased temperatures with increased urbanization, little is known about how this may be different if a city shrinks due to urban decline. We hypothesize that the changes associated with shrinking cities will have a measurable impact on their local climatology that is different than in areas experiencing increased urbanization. Here we present our analysis of historical temperature and precipitation records (1900–2020) from weather stations positioned in multiple shrinking cities from within the Rust Belt region of the United States and in growing cities within and outside of this region. Our results suggest that while temperatures are increasing overall, these increases are lower in shrinking cities than those cities that are continuing to experience urban growth. Our analysis also suggests there are differences in precipitation trends between shrinking and growing cities. We also highlight recent climate data in Detroit, MI in the context of these longer-term changes in climatology to support urban planning and management decisions that may influence or be influenced by these trends. PubDate: 2023-01-23T00:00:00Z
Open Access journal
