JournalTOCs

Ekonomika (Economics)
Number of Followers: 0

This is an Open Access Journal

Open Access journal
ISSN (Print) 2424-6166 - ISSN (Online) 1392-1258
Published by Vilnius University

[38 journals]

Editorial Board and Table of Contents
- Authors: Jelena Stankevičienė
  Abstract: -
  PubDate: Tue, 16 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +000
Predicting Mortgage Loan Defaults Using Machine Learning Techniques
- Authors: Danylo Krasovytskyi Andriy Stavytskyy
  Abstract: Mortgage default prediction is always on the table for financial institutions. Banks are interested in provision planning, while regulators monitor systemic risk, which this sector may possess. This research is focused on predicting defaults on a one-year horizon using data from the Ukrainian credit registry applying machine-learning methods. This research is useful for not only academia but also policymakers since it helps to assess the need for implementation of macroprudential instruments. We tested two data balancing techniques: weighting the original sample and synthetic minority oversampling technique and compared the results. It was found that random forest and extreme gradient-boosting decision trees are better classifiers regarding both accuracy and precision. These models provided an essential balance between actual default precision and minimizing false defaults. We also tested neural networks, linear discriminant analysis, support vector machines with linear kernels, and decision trees, but they showed similar results to logistic regression. The result suggested that real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and debt-service-to-income ratio (DSTI) were good predictors of default. This means that a realistic GDP forecast as well as a proper assessment of the borrower’s DSTI through the loan history can predict default on a one-year horizon. Adding other variables such as the borrower’s age and loan interest rate can also be beneficial. However, the residual maturity of mortgage loans does not contribute to default probability, which means that banks should treat both new borrowers equally and those who nearly repaid the loan.
  PubDate: Tue, 16 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +000
Role of Innovation on Green Economic Growth: Empirical Analysis from the
Countries of the Western Balkans
- Authors: Marigonë Plakaj Vërbovci Atdhetar Gara Hyrije Abazi Alili
  Abstract: The impact of innovations on the growth of the green economy is a crucial aspect for a country’s economy. The promotion of these innovations and investments is also vital for sustainable and long-term development. This paper aims to present the role of innovation on green economic growth in the countries of the Western Balkans (Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia) over a 13-year period, from 2010 to 2022.Data for the research were obtained from the World Bank and the Global Economy Database, where the study data type is Panel. The econometric models used are: the ordinary least squares (OLS) model, the Fixed Effect (FE) model, the Random Effect (RE) model and the Hausman Taylor (HTH) model. The dependent variable is green economic growth, while the independent variables include the innovation index (INV), research and development expenditures (R&D), information technology exports (ITE), patent applications from residents (PA), manufacturing output (MAN), business freedom index (BFI), investment freedom index (IFI), and economic freedom index (EFI). The findings of this paper show that the countries of the Western Balkans should promote key factors such as: innovation as an important driver, with a positive impact on green economic growth; research and development expenses; patent applications, and favorable business and economic environments to facilitate long-term green economic growth and promote environmental sustainability. The results indicate that the coefficient for innovation is positive (B=0.41) and statistically significant at the 1% level, supporting the hypothesis that the increase in innovation has a positive impact on green economic growth in the countries of the Western Balkans.
  PubDate: Mon, 01 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +000
Modelling the Relationship Between Public Expenditure, Tax Revenue and
Economic Growth in Türkiye Using the AARDL Approach
- Authors: Ali Celik Ahmet Köstekçi
  Abstract: This study aims to investigate the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policy in Türkiye, where fiscal policy faces several challenges. Using annual time series data from 1980 to 2021, we examine the impact of tax and public expenditure subcomponents on GDP using the augmented autoregressive distributed lag (A-ARDL) bound test approach proposed by Sam et al. (2019). The A-ARDL test results indicate that tax revenue has a positive impact on economic growth in the short run, while tax revenue has a negative impact on economic growth in the long run. Furthermore, we conclude that increases in current and investment expenditures have a positive impact on economic growth in the short and long run, while increases in transfer expenditures have a negative impact on economic growth in the short run.
  PubDate: Mon, 01 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +000
The Asymmetric Effects of Global Energy and Food Prices, Exchange Rate
Dynamics, and Monetary Policy Conduct on Inflation in Indonesia
- Authors: Arintoko Arintoko Lilis Siti Badriah Nunik Kadarwati
  Abstract: This research analyzes the asymmetric effects of global energy and food prices and monetary variables, including the exchange rate and money supply, on the consumer price index (CPI). The model is intended to differentiate the influence of increases and decreases in global energy and food prices, exchange rates, and money supply which cause inflation/deflation from changes in the CPI. The analysis uses the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) and Quantile Regression models on data from January 2001 to February 2023. The study results show that the decline in global energy prices significantly reduces the CPI in the long run. Energy subsidies allow increases in international energy prices not to increase the CPI significantly. Meanwhile, the increase in global food prices causes inflation in the short run. The exchange rate has the most significant effect on the CPI. Depreciation of the rupiah significantly increases the CPI, which means it causes inflation, while appreciation of the rupiah does not have a significant effect. Finally, increases and decreases in the money supply have a considerable positive effect on the CPI, which confirms the logic of the monetarist view that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Efforts to reduce dependence on imports of food and energy commodities are the key to reducing risks when importing energy and food due to rupiah depreciation. Efforts to consistently stabilize the exchange rate can support controlling and stabilizing import prices. Energy and food subsidy policies are vital in controlling inflation due to increased world energy and food prices.
  PubDate: Mon, 01 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +000
Social Protection Benefits Compatibility and Evaluation Criteria: the Case
of Lithuania
- Authors: Vitalija Gabnytė-Baranauskė
  Abstract: In general, the social protection (SP) system consists of two main blocks: social insurance (SI) and social assistance (SA). The main idea of SP is to leave no one behind, support in times of social risks. However, SI and SA systems are usually developed and improved separately. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and European Commission (EC) often emphasise that expenditure on the SP system in Lithuania is scarce, income poverty and inequality are critical, not improving. This raises the question of whether both elements of SP in Lithuania are based on the same criteria to achieve consolidated SP and avoid its gaps. This paper aims to identify evaluation criteria, look at the Lithuanian SP system through its main benefits, and identify whether people are protected. The analysis consists of a literature review, which helps identify evaluation criteria for the SP system, and Lithuanian analysis based on evaluation criteria for 2018–2022 policy years. Three main criteria for SP benefits evaluation are identified: coverage, adequacy, and incentives to work. To make an in-depth analysis of the SP system in Lithuania, the tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD is used to analyse different households’ poverty and unemployment traps and test whether the current SP system contributes to them. It was expected that this research would help to shed a light on how well Lithuanian SI and SA function simultaneously. Results show that SP system compatibility in Lithuania is above average, the weakest part is coverage.
  PubDate: Sat, 29 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +000
A Study on the Effect of Imported Wheat Prices on Türkiye’s
Pasta Exports: ARDL Approach
- Authors: Ahmed Yusuf Sarihan
  Abstract: Türkiye has possessed significant agricultural opportunities throughout its history. Although the effective utilization of these opportunities is a subject of debate today, the country still plays a significant role in the global trade of some agricultural products. When discussions about Türkiye’s exports are examined, a common complaint is the external dependency of the export industry. However, there are also debates about the diminishing agricultural advantages that have been present since the past. When these discussions are brought together, the trade of certain processed agricultural products, whose raw materials are agricultural products, also becomes a noteworthy research topic due to a similar import dependency. In this study, an analysis was conducted using time series and the ARDL model to investigate whether there is a relationship between Türkiye’s pasta export quantity, as one of the leading pasta exporter’s globally, and the prices of wheat imports from Ukraine, Russia, and Bulgaria. Also robustness checks enhanced the analyzes by employing FMOLS and DOLS methods. The research findings indicate variations in the impact of wheat prices from country to country on the quantity of pasta exported by Türkiye. Recommendations regarding the importance of wheat production in Türkiye are also provided as a result of the research.
  PubDate: Fri, 28 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +000
Ukraine’s Green Economy Growth in the Context of Industry 4.0:
Challenges and Solutions
- Authors: Olena Korohodova Tetiana Moiseienko Yaroslava Hlushchenko Natalya Chernenko
  Abstract: The research highlights the importance of prioritizing new sources of economic growth for the world, with a specific focus on Ukraine. The information base of the study included data from the statistical and managerial reporting of enterprises, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, and information-analytical materials from international organizations. The authors analyze scientific works associated with the European Green Deal (EGD) to identify historic periods of green economy growth and establish growth trends. The authors argue that favorable conditions are necessary to achieve sustainable green growth within the framework of the EGD. The study aims to introduce an improved economic definition, namely the efficiency of green (natural) capital, aligned with the provisions of the EGD in the context of Industry 4.0. The analysis demonstrated that the coefficient of green (natural) capital (GNC) efficiency is crucial in decision-making processes by enterprises, taking into account ecological and green (natural and resource) factors. The analysis also includes a flowchart of Ukraine‘s green economy growth in the environment of Industry 4.0 as of 2022. The research results have led to the improvement of scientific and methodological approaches to assessing the eco-economic efficiency of advanced green technologies. The introduced green (natural) capital indicator allowed to display of the theory of achieving more products and services with fewer resources, including natural and ecological ones.
  PubDate: Fri, 28 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +000
Editorial Board and Table of Contents
- Authors: Jelena Stankevičienė
  Abstract: -
  PubDate: Wed, 05 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +000
Money Talks: A Holistic and Longitudinal View of the Budget Basket in the
Face of Climate Change and Sustainable Finance Matters
- Authors: Enkeleda Lulaj
  Abstract: This study presents a holistic and longitudinal view of the household budget basket concerning climate change and sustainable finance matters. It aims to understand their impact on the budget basket by examining the relationship between money, climate change and sustainable finance in a global economy for transition countries. Comprehensive CPI data were collected in Kosovo from 2002 to 2022, and data analysis was performed using statistical methods such as t-tests and proximity matrixes in SPSS. The results show significant differences between the average and desired values within the budget basket, indicating changes in consumer behavior, particularly in food expenditures, budget allocations, and climate change impacts. Interesting patterns emerge, such as correlations between bread, cereals, and meat, and the absence of fish in some purchases. Spending on clothing and other goods also deviates from desired values. These findings highlight the complex relationship between money, climate change, sustainable finance, and consumer spending patterns, and underscore the need to address the gap between expected and desired spending values for the global economy in transition economies. Future research should focus on analyzing household spending and its interaction with other factors to improve personal financial management and promote sustainable financial behavior in a larger number of global economies.
  PubDate: Thu, 11 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +000

HOME > Browse the 3359 Publishers covered by JournalTOCs	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Publisher	Total Journals
	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8