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Jurnal Fourier
Number of Followers: 2  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Print) 2252-763X - ISSN (Online) 2541-5239
Published by UIN Sunan Kalijaga Yogyakarta Homepage  [6 journals]
  • Modeling and Prediction of COVID-19 with a Large Scale Social Distancing

    • Authors: Yudi Ari Adi, Meksianis Z. Ndii
      Pages: 1 - 9
      Abstract: Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19), yang kasusnya dimulai di Cina, dalam kurun waktu dua bulan telah menyebar dengan cepat ke lebih dari 114 negara dan territorial. Pemahaman tentang dinamika penularan Covid-19 sangat penting untuk menentukan kebijakan dan strategi dalam pengobatan dan pengendalian penyebaran penyakit ini. Dalam makalah ini, disusun model matematika yang menggambarkan dinamika penularan penyakit menggunakan model matematika deterministik dengan menggunakan data penyebaran COVID-19 di Jakarta, Indonesia dari 3 Maret 2020, hingga 10 April 2020. Model berbentuk Sistem persamaan diferensial yang selanjutnya dilakukan analisis matematika dan simulasi numerik. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa tanpa intervensi, angka reproduksi penyebaran Covid-19 di Provisi Jakarta sekitar 1,658 dan jika Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB) diimplementasikan, maka angka reproduksinya turun menjadi 1,40. Lebih lanjut, epidemi diperkirakan akan berakhir sekitar akhir November 2020 dengan kasus puncak pada pertengahan Juni 2020 dengan jumlah orang yang dikonfirmasi positif terinfeksi mencapai sekitar 9.000 jiwa. Dari hasil pemodelan ini, disimpulkan bahwa untuk meminimalkan penularan penyakit, perlu menerapkan kebijakan dan kontrol yang lebih ketat. [Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) which was initiated in China, has spread rapidly in more than 114 countries and territories over the last two months. An understanding of the dynamics of Covid-19 transmission is very important to determine policies and strategies in the treatment and control of the spread of this disease. In this paper, we formulated a mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics of the disease using a deterministic mathematical model and the model is validated against data from Jakarta, Indonesia from March 3, 2020, to April 10, 2020. Mathematical analysis and numerical simulations are presented. We found that without intervention, the reproduction number is around 1.658 and the reproduction number declines to 1.40 if large scale social distancing is implemented. Furthermore, the end time of epidemic is predicted to be around the end of November 2020 with peak cases around mid-June 2020 and the number of confirmed infected individuals is around 9,000. To minimize the transmission of the diseases, it is necessary to enforce strict policies and controls.]
      PubDate: 2020-04-30
      DOI: 10.14421/fourier.2020.91.1-9
      Issue No: Vol. 9, No. 1 (2020)
       
  • Syarat Perlu dan Cukup Eksistensi Solusi Permainan Dinamis Dua Orang
           Berjumlah Nol dengan Ketidakpastian

    • Authors: Muhammad Wakhid Musthofa
      Pages: 11 - 17
      Abstract: Artikel ini akan membahas penurunan syarat perlu dan syarat cukup agar permainan dinamis linear kuadratis dua pemain berjumlah nol dengan kehadiran ketidakpastian pada sistem mempunyai strategi optimal robust sebagai solusi optimalnya. Ide untuk menyelesaikannya adalah dengan mendefinisikan dua buah permainan dinamis sedemikian sehingga ketidakpastian pada sistem hanya terjadi untuk salah satu pemainnya saja. [This article will discuss the reduction of the necessary and sufficient conditions so that the quadratic linear dynamic game of two players totals zero with the presence of uncertainty in the system having an optimal robust strategy as the optimal solution. The idea to solve this is to define two dynamic games so that uncertainty in the system only occurs for one of the players.]
      PubDate: 2020-04-30
      DOI: 10.14421/fourier.2020.91.11-17
      Issue No: Vol. 9, No. 1 (2020)
       
  • Karakteristik Subsemiring Fuzzy

    • Authors: Saman Abdurrahman
      Pages: 19 - 23
      Abstract: Dalam tulisan ini, didefinisikan subsemiring fuzzy dan menyelidiki sifat yang terkait. Selain itu, diperkenalkan konsep subsemiring yang diinduksi dari level subset. Akhirnya, karakteristik subsemiring fuzzy diperoleh. [In this paper, we define the notion of fuzzy subsemiring and investigate the related properties. Moreover, we introduce the idea of a subsemiring induced from the level subset. Finally, a characterization of a fuzzy subsemiring is obtained.]
      PubDate: 2020-04-30
      DOI: 10.14421/fourier.2020.91.19-23
      Issue No: Vol. 9, No. 1 (2020)
       
  • Pembentukan Portofolio Optimal dengan Menggunakan Mean Absolute Deviation
           dan Conditional Mean Variance

    • Authors: Eka Nur Vanti, Epha Diana Supandi
      Pages: 25 - 34
      Abstract: Penelitian ini membahas tentang pembentukan portofolio optimal menggunakan model Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) dan model Conditional Mean Variance (CMV). Pada model MAD risiko portofolio diukur menggunakan rata–rata deviasi standar sehingga portofolio optimal dapat diperoleh dengan menggunakan pemrograman linear. Sedangkan portofolio model CMV, rata–rata return diestimasi menggunakan model Autoregressive (AR) dan risiko (variansi) diestimasi menggunakan model GARCH. Selanjutnya kedua model portofolio diterapkan dalam membentuk portofolio optimal pada saham–saham yang terdaftar dalam Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) periode 4 Juli 2016 sampai 4 Juli 2018. Kinerja kedua portofolio dianalisis menggunakan indeks Sortino. Hasilnya menunjukan bahwa kinerja portofolio model CMV lebih baik dibandingkan model portofolio MAD. [This study discusses the formation of optimal portfolios using the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) model and the Conditional Mean Variance (CMV) model. The MAD portfolio model measures portfolio risk by using average standard deviations so that optimal portfolios solved by using linear programming. Meanwhile the CMV portfolio model, the average return estimated by using the Autoregressive (AR) model and the risk (variance) estimated by using the GARCH model. Furthermore, both portfolio models applied in forming optimal portfolios for stocks listed in the Indonesian Syariah Stock Index (ISSI) for the period 4 July 2016 to 4 July 2018. The performance of both portfolios analyzed by using the Sortino index. The results show that the portfolio performance of the CMV model is better than MAD portfolio model.]
      PubDate: 2020-04-30
      DOI: 10.14421/fourier.2020.91.25-34
      Issue No: Vol. 9, No. 1 (2020)
       
  • Development of a Guide to Preparation of Mathematics Questions Based on
           Higher Order Thinking Skills and Strengthening Character Education for
           Middle School Teachers

    • Authors: Ibrahim Ibrahim, Iwan Kuswidi, Nurul Arfinanti
      Pages: 35 - 42
      Abstract: The objectives of public devotion based on nationally excelled research this covers: (1) to develop a mathematical problem composing guide based on HOTS and SCE for qualified Madrasah Tsanawiyah teachers, (2) to provide training a mathematical problem composing based on HOTS and SCE for qualified Madrasah Tsanawiyah teachers using the developed guide. This study uses a 4-D (Four D) development research design model according to Thiagarajan, et al (1974: 5). This research model includes 4 main stages, namely the defining stage, followed by the design stage, then towards the development stage, and finally the distribution phase. The research instruments included: (a) the scale of the assessment of the quality of mathematical composing guide based on HOTS and SCE for Madrasah Tsanawiyah teachers, (b) scale of appraisal user response for guidebook, and (c) the Pre Test and Post Test Problem Sheets. The results of the study concluded that the guidebook for mathematical problem composing for SMP / MTs based on HOTS and SCE met the specified quality criteria, which were at least in the good category. In this study, the developed guidebook obtained an evaluation in the excellent category. However, testing to determine the level of practicality has not been done.
      PubDate: 2020-04-30
      DOI: 10.14421/fourier.2020.91.35-42
      Issue No: Vol. 9, No. 1 (2020)
       
 
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