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Journal of Economics and Political Economy
Number of Followers: 7  

  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
ISSN (Online) 2148-8347
Published by KSP Journals Homepage  [6 journals]
  • What drives housing consumption in China' Based on a dynamic optimal
           general equilibrium model and spatial panel data analysis

    • Authors: Zhipeng DU, Wei Kun ZHANG, Yiming HE
      Pages: 1 - 26
      Abstract: . This paper examines the housing sales in China from 2004 to 2015 utilizing an optimal dynamic general equilibrium theoretical framework combined with a macroeconomic model. The spatial panel econometric empirical results suggest that housing prices and economic growth have increased housing sales in China. However, since house is considered as a special commodity in China, and unemployment show negative impacts on housing sales.Keywords. Energy use, Housing values, Optimal dynamic general equilibrium, Spatial panel econometrics, China.JEL. Q41, R31, E10.
      PubDate: 2018-03-18
      DOI: 10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1557
      Issue No: Vol. 5, No. 1 (2018)
       
  • Supply-side economics and the 2017 Tax Act

    • Authors: Clark JOHNSON
      Pages: 27 - 37
      Abstract: . . Several of the designers of the 2017 Tax Act were prominent as ‘supply side‛ advocates at the time of Reagan tax cuts during the 1980s. The economic argument for supply side tax rate reductions drew on a policy mix framework developed by Robert Mundell as early as 1962. Within that framework, the easy fiscal/ tight monetary policy solution was intended for circumstances of either pressure on reserves or the exchange rate (as during the Kennedy Administration) or of serious domestic inflation (as under the Carter and Reagan Administrations). Tax cuts in the US since the 1980s have not had the intended stimulus effects because neither the currency weakness nor inflationary preconditions have existed. Absent such conditions, tax rate reductions will generate either domestic over-heating or a redistribution of income to those in higher brackets. Any argument in favor of the 2017 Tax Act should not fall back on Mundell’s policy mix advocacy. In contrast, the case for an easy fiscal/ tight money policy may have unexpected force in situations of fixed exchange rates, or where domestic monetary policy options are otherwise constrained or absent – as in Eurozone periphery countries.Keywords. Supply side economics, Robert Mundell, Policy Mix classifications, 2017 Tax Act, Eurozone macroeconomics.JEL. B30, E30, E50, E60, F20.
      PubDate: 2018-03-18
      DOI: 10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1556
      Issue No: Vol. 5, No. 1 (2018)
       
  • A monetary conditions index and its application on Tunisian economic
           forecasting

    • Authors: Ali MNA, Moheddine YOUNSI
      Pages: 38 - 56
      Abstract: . The purpose of this paper is to find out the extent of the influence of internal and external monetary conditions on Tunisian macroeconomic aggregates by constructing a synthetic index. We seek to contribute to the empirical literature in the following ways. First, we calculate the weights assigned to domestic interest rate and the exchange rate based on the estimated coefficients respectively for these two dimensions over the period 1965-2015. Second, by employing a VAR model approach, we confirm the long-run dynamic between the considered variables. The analysis of shocks indicates that monetary conditions have a particular importance through their effects on economic activity and inflation. The latter is characterized by its significant negative influence on economic growth and by its contribution in linking between internal and external interest rates. Third, we use a SVAR model approach for analyzing the short-run structural dynamics between the variables. Our findings reveal that the Tunisian economy is significantly influenced by external monetary conditions. This extensive influence is confirmed through the dynamics of structural monetary policy shocks and exchange rate. Overall, our study finds that the exchange rate plays an increasing role in transmitting the monetary policy effect to the inflation rate and thus the real economy.Keywords. Monetary conditions index, SVAR approach, Structural monetary shocks.JEL. E43, E51, E52.
      PubDate: 2018-03-18
      DOI: 10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1585
      Issue No: Vol. 5, No. 1 (2018)
       
  • An empirical analysis of Diaspora bonds

    • Authors: Şule AKKOYUNLU, Max STERN
      Pages: 57 - 80
      Abstract: . This study is the first to investigate theoretically and empirically the determinants of Diaspora Bonds for eight developing countries (Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Lebanon, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Sri-Lanka) and one developed country - Israel for the period 1951 and 2008. Empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. The most robust variables are the closeness indicator and the sovereign rating, both on the demand-side. The spread is not significant, suggesting Diaspora Bonds differ from normal investments. Good governance and wars are also important demand-side determinants of Diaspora Bonds. Among the supply-side factors; FDI, ODA, foreign exchange, inflation, external debt and remittances significantly determine the issue of Diaspora Bonds. Most importantly, this study is able to make predictions of the most promising candidate countries in issuing Diaspora Bonds in the future.Keywords. Diaspora Bonds, Supply-side, Demand-side.JEL. F21, F24, F34, F35, G38, H62, H63.
      PubDate: 2018-03-18
      DOI: 10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1566
      Issue No: Vol. 5, No. 1 (2018)
       
  • Policy review: Is inequality a policy choice'

    • Authors: Dawood MAMOON
      Pages: 81 - 83
      Abstract: . The paper is a short literature review that suggests that trade policy as opposed to general measures of openness does correlate with inequality. The review suggests that developing countries are not ready to fully integrate with global trade because significant segments of populations are unskilled whereas global trade patterns benefit only skilled or semi-skilled.Keywords. Inequality, Integration, Trade Policy.JEL. F10, F13, F19.
      PubDate: 2018-03-18
      DOI: 10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1491
      Issue No: Vol. 5, No. 1 (2018)
       
  • The relation between terrorism and high population growth

    • Authors: Mario COCCIA
      Pages: 84 - 104
      Abstract: . A fundamental problem in socioeconomic sciences is how to explain the root causes of terrorism. The literature has analyzed several determinants of terrorism. However, the precise role of demographic factors for the origin and evolution of terrorism in specific geoeconomic areas is hardly known. Results here show that high population growth seems to be basic for the source and evolution of terrorism. This study found that terrorism thrives, in average, in specific cultural zones with high growth rates of population combined with collective identity factors and low socioeconomic development. Overall, then, the main aim of this study is to clarify and generalize whenever possible, the demographic source of the terrorism and suggest appropriate socioeconomic policies to preempt this critical problem in society over the long run.Keywords. Terrorism, Population growth, Fertility rate, Poverty, Middle East.JEL. I30, I24, N35, Q56, Z12.
      PubDate: 2018-03-18
      DOI: 10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1575
      Issue No: Vol. 5, No. 1 (2018)
       
  • Did Harvard barometers allow for the prediction of the 1929 Stock market
           crash'

    • Authors: Ignacio Escañuela ROMANA
      Pages: 105 - 120
      Abstract: . The Harvard barometers were an attempt to analyse and predict the business cycles, which took place in the 1920s. An initiative from the Harvard Economic Service (HES), it was one of the first and more important instrument used to try to understand the sequence in the economic fluctuations. This paper reconsiders the accepted position about the Harvard barometers, that using them it was impossible to predict the 1929 Depression. I arrive at a different conclusion. Based on the data from the ABC curves in August 1929, and with an available econometric methodology at that time, it would have been possible to forecast the fall in speculation, as defined in the curve A, whereas the fall in business (B), and in monetary and credit conditions (C) were unpredictable. The stock market crash could have been anticipated. The HES stated that curve A precedes B, and then C. This is not detected. This paper makes use of the harmonic analysis by breaking down series in sinusoidal curves. Taking into account this prediction, this work analyses if aggregation was the factor producing the perceived regularities. The conclusion is negative: aggregation did not produce those cycles, they were in the original data.Keywords. Business cycles, 1929 crash, Forecasting, Periodogram, Economic history.JEL. B23, C43, E32, N12.
      PubDate: 2018-03-18
      DOI: 10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1560
      Issue No: Vol. 5, No. 1 (2018)
       
  • The fiscal policy impact to the Greek economy: Asymmetric evidence from a
           switching regime approach

    • Authors: Dimitrios DIMITRIOU, Anastasios PAPPAS
      Pages: 121 - 131
      Abstract: . This paper empirically investigates the magnitude of general government expenditures and tax income revenues to the Greek output within a regime-switching framework during the period 2000:1 – 2016:3. This nonlinear methodology captures the fiscal effects across periods of high and low growth. In more deep analysis, we examine the relationship of expenditures and GDP over time, by adopting the GARCH(1,1)-DCC methodology. Our results show that the magnitude of general government expenditures is larger during periods of low growth or economic recession, as well as the magnitude of tax income revenues. Furthermore, during the “bailout” period (2010-2016) when the fiscal adjustment was strict, GDP seem to be even stronger negatively affected by the reduction of government expenditures.Keywords. Fiscal policy impact, regime switching, GARCH-DCC, Greek economy.JEL. E61, E62, H21.
      PubDate: 2018-03-18
      DOI: 10.1453/jepe.v5i1.1598
      Issue No: Vol. 5, No. 1 (2018)
       
 
 
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