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Journal Cover Research & Reviews : Journal of Statistics
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   ISSN (Print) 2348-7909 - ISSN (Online) 2278-2273
   Published by STM Journals Homepage  [67 journals]
  • Analysis of Earthquake Risk Influencing Factors by Using Logistic
           Regression Model of RC Frame Buildings
    • Authors: Nanda Kumar Tharu, Ram Prasad Khatiwada
      Abstract: This article categorizes and statistically presents various risk influencing factors on damages of homes and buildings during ‘Nepal Earthquake 2015’ in a hilly municipality Chautara of Sindhupalchok District, Nepal. This work analyses risk factors with different measures and presents a statistical model on damage patterns (livable/not-livable) of Reinforced Concrete (RC) frame buildings of the study area using logistic regression model. Proposed model is validated with Forward Stepwise Selection (FSS) and Backward Stepwise Selection (BSS), using R2 (Hosmer and Lameshow, Cox and Snell, Negelkerke) and Chi-square tests. Model adequacy test is done with multicollineartiy test, goodness of fit and residual plots and ensured into satisfactory result. The predicted probabilities of the risk for not-livable damages of the buildings are also computed for various ages and storeys. Keywords: Earthquake risk, RC frame buildings, logistic regression, maximum likelihood, multicollinearity, variance inflation factor Cite this Article Nanda Kumar Tharu, Ram Prasad Khatiwada. Analysis of Earthquake Risk Influencing Factors by Using Logistic Regression Model of RC Frame Buildings. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2016; 5(3):       39–48p. 
      PubDate: 2016-12-29
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2016)
  • Comparison Study on the Prediction Performance of Different Statistical
           Models Including Feed Forward Artificial Neural Network: Climate Data of
           Some Coastal Districts
    • Authors: Md. Habibur Rahman
      Abstract: This study compares the performance of different statistical models and artificial neural network models in predicting the monthly average rainfall in monsoon season and over the year. The data used in this study is collected from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department consisting 18 stations for the year 1961–2014. The prediction performance of models are evaluated by different accuracy measures such as mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error, prediction error, similarity measures, Akaike information criterion, Schwarz information criterion, etc. It reveals that the different seasonal average rainfall and yearly average rainfall is approximately normally distributed and the variability of monsoon rainfall is superior to the other seasons. In predicting both the series, several models such as linear trend, single exponential smoothing, double exponential smoothing, Fourier series, polynomial, auto regressive integrated moving average, multiple linear regression, artificial neural network model are employed. According to model accuracy measure, the best fitted models are Fourier series and polynomial. Keywords: Rainfall, artificial neural network, statistical model, model accuracy measure, prediction performanceCite this Article Md. Habibur Rahman. Comparison Study on the Prediction Performance of Different Statistical Models including Feed Forward Artificial Neural Network: Climate Data of Some Coastal Districts. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2016; 5(3): 26–38p. 
      PubDate: 2016-12-29
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2016)
  • Revenue Forecasting using Holt–Winters Exponential Smoothing
    • Authors: Md. Habibur Rahman, Umma Salma, Md. Moyazzem Hossain, Md. Tareq Ferdous Khan
      Abstract: A lot of time series demonstrate seasonal behavior with trend, such type of series was monthly revenue (in crore) of Bangabandhu Multipurpose Bridge. The seasonal forecasting with trend issue was considerable importance. The research work focus on the analysis of seasonal time series data using additive and multiplicative seasonal model of Holt–winters method and forecast the monthly revenue (in crore) using best model—additive Holt–Winters exponential smoothing up to January 2021. Keywords: Forecast, levels, seasonality, trend, root mean squared, BangladeshCite this Article Md. Habibur Rahman, Umma Salma, Md. Moyazzem Hossain, Md. Tareq Ferdous Khan. Revenue Forecasting using Holt–Winters Exponential Smoothing. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2016; 5(3):        19–25p.
      PubDate: 2016-12-28
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2016)
  • Review Script on Vedic Arithmetic Multiplication
    • Authors: Kapil Babbar
      Abstract: Multiplication is an important fundamental function in arithmetic operations. Arithmetical multiplications of numbers are carried out more simply and faster using Vedic mathematics sutras and subsutras. In this script we study about four Vedic mathematic sutras and three Vedic mathematics subsutras. In this all sutras and subsutras are illustrated by means of examples. This study shows that in all cases the time taken by the sutras or subsutras for mathematical operations do not exceed by the time taken in the conventional methods. A number of comments are given to the end of each problem. Keywords: Arithmetic, Vedic MathematicsCite this Article Kapil Babbar. Review Script on Vedic Arithmetic Multiplication. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2016; 5(3): 7–18p. 
      PubDate: 2016-12-21
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2016)
  • Examining market efficiency of Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) in
           Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis of the Random Walk Hypothesis
    • Authors: H.M. Simon, Md. Siddikur Rahman
      Abstract: Hypothesis of market efficiency is an important concept for the investors who wish to hold internationally diversified portfolios. With increased movement of investments across international boundaries owing to the integration of world economies, the understanding of efficiency of the emerging markets is also gaining greater importance. In this paper, we test the weak form efficiency in the framework of random walk hypothesis for Chittagong stock exchange (CSE) by composing daily returns of three indices for the period of 2006 to 2015. The evidence suggests that the series do not follow random walk model and there is an evidence applying different tests of rejecting the weak form efficiency hypothesis. Keywords: Market efficiency, random walk hypothesis, Jarque-Bera test, CSECite this Article Simon HM, Md. Siddikur Rahman. Examining Market Efficiency of Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) in Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis of the Random Walk Hypothesis. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2016; 5(3): 1–6p.
      PubDate: 2016-12-21
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2016)
  • Average Number of Real Zeros of a Random Trigonometric Polynomial with
           Cauchy Distributed Coefficients
    • Authors: S. Bagh
      Abstract: be a random trigonometric polynomial where the coefficients ak’s (k=1, 2, ..., n) are independent Cauchy distributed random variables and Nn(w) be the number of real zeros of T(q), 0≤q≤2p, then it is proved that the average number of real zeros of the trigonometric polynomial T(q) in the interval (0, 2p) is given by ENn=O(n). Keywords: Random trigonometric polynomial, Cauchy distribution, characteristic function, Kac-rice formulaCite this Article Bagh S. Average Number of Real Zeros of a Random Trigonometric Polynomial with Cauchy Distributed Coefficients. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2016; 5(2): 62–70p.
         be  a random trigonometric polynomial where the coefficients ak’s (k = 1,2,..., n) are independent Cauchy distributed random variables and Nn(w) be the number of real zeros of T(q), 0 ≤ q ≤ 2p, then it is proved that the average number of real zeros of the trigonometric polynomial T(q) in the interval (0,2p) is given by ENn = O(n).
      PubDate: 2016-08-09
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2016)
  • Determinants of Rural-Urban Migration in Bangladesh including its
           Consequences for Origin Households and Urban Amenities
    • Authors: Md. Zakir Hossain, Md. Ohidul Alam Khan, Jasim Uddin Ahmed
      Abstract: Rural-urban migration mainly contributes to urban growth in the developing countries and accounts for about two-thirds of the urban growth in Bangladesh since independence. In the twentieth century, the urban population in Bangladesh increased about forty-fold in contrast with four-fold for rural population. Owing to limited opportunities in the rural areas, a large number of people continue to move towards towns/cities for their livelihood. The objective of the paper is to identify the determinants of rural-urban migration and its consequences for origin and destination to formulate appropriate strategies to reduce the adverse impacts of undue inflow of migration. The study has adopted household level survey at origin and individual level interview at destination to collect the desired data and information on 480 migrant and 210 non-migrant households from 30 clusters of Bangladesh financed by social science research council (SSRC) of planning commission, Bangladesh. The rural-urban migration rate from different mauzas/villages is estimated at 10.31%. The multiple binary logistic regression analysis has identified that maximum educational level of the household, occupation of the household head, landholding, number of adult male members and dependency ratio are the significant determinants of rural-urban migration. The likelihood of rural-urban migration is documented higher for the households whose members attained at least primary level of education; whose heads’ occupations were service, non-agricultural labor and unemployment; and who stay at the both ends of the landholding ladder. Regarding the consequences at the place of origin, the study has explored that rural-urban migration puts a significant and positive impact on the migrant households as a livelihood strategy. Apart from the rapid urbanization, the rural-urban migration reduces urban amenities impinging overwhelming population pressure. A vast majority of the migrants agreed with the decreasing trend of urban amenities as an adverse affect of migration, and the major problematic areas of urban amenities are identified as electricity, housing, transportation and gas. To optimize the rural-urban migration and its outcome, the study suggests some policy implications that include increasing the education facilities in the rural areas, taking proper steps to encourage the natural calamities refugee migrants for rural-rural migration instead of rural-urban migration; decentralizing the administration, industrialization, and commercialization to minimize the untoward rural-urban migration flow. Keywords: Rural-urban, migration, livelihood, regression analysisCite this Article Md. Zakir Hossain, Md. Ohidul Alam Khan, Jasim Uddin Ahmed. Determinants of Rural-Urban Migration in Bangladesh including its Consequences for Origin Households and Urban Amenities. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2016; 5(2): 47–61p.
      PubDate: 2016-08-07
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2016)
  • An Anthology of Parametric ROC Models
    • Authors: S. Balaswamy, R. Vishnu Vardhan
      Abstract: In the context of classification problems, ROC curve has gained its importance in classified fields. The so called parametric form of ROC curve, namely, Binormal ROC model was developed by assuming normal distributions. However, the practical situations in classifying individuals/objects demanded new forms of ROC models. The present paper brings out an insight into the theoretical development of different parametric forms of ROC models and its measures. Keywords: AUC, Binormal ROC curve, Hybrid ROC curves, KLD and Optimal ThresholdCite this Article S. Balaswamy, R. Vishnu Vardhan. An Anthology of Parametric ROC Models. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2016; 5(2): 32–46p.
      PubDate: 2016-08-07
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2016)
  • Graph Sampling by Spanning Tree under Stratified Setup
    • Authors: Diwakar Shukla, Sharad Pathak, Shashikant Trivedi
      Abstract: The sampling theory and its methodologies are based on assumption that the population under survey is of individuals and respondents have provided the answer of questions asked. When population is of graphical structure like containing nodes and edge links then it is complicated to apply the usual sampling procedures. Spanning tree is specified type of a graph, which is always connected with all nodes and becomes a sub-graph. Assume that there are several strata each having structure of graphical population of node-links, each contains graph like spanning tree. A sample containing different size from each stratum is drawn randomly. This paper presents a node-sampling procedure to draw sample and estimate the population mean-edge-length in the setup of stratified graphical structured population of spanning tree. An estimation procedure is suggested and expressions of mean squared error are obtained. Optimum choice of estimator parameter is obtained showing the control over bias as well as mean squared error both. A numerical case in point is given to support of theoretical findings. It is found that node-sampling procedure is worthwhile in stratified population structure. AMS Subject Classification: 62D99, 62-07 and 62-09 Keywords: Spanning Tree, Node-Sampling Procedure, Bias, Mean Squared ErrorCite this Article Diwakar Shukla, Sharad Pathak, Shashikant Trivedi. Graph Sampling by Spanning Tree under Stratified Setup.Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2016; 5(2): 11–31p.
      PubDate: 2016-07-26
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2016)
  • Modified Unit Root Test in a Random Effect Panel Data Model under
           Restricted Alternatives
    • Authors: N. Salma, M.F. B. Karim, F. A. Duty, A. K. Majumder
      Abstract: Many econometric including time series as well as panel data models provide us with prior information about some or all of their unknown parameters. Such information usually comes from economic theory, from previous empirical studies or from functional considerations such as variances always being nonnegative. For this reason, many econometric testing problems are potentially either strictly one-sided or partially one-sided. Since panel data is the combination of time series and cross-sectional data, so autocorrelation problem likely to be occurring in panel data along with nonstationary problem. It needs to be tested. But testing unit root by existing tests did not incorporate the prior information, which provides us inefficient estimate along with low power. In this study, we tried to overcome these problems by using constraint optimization technique of estimation and modifying the unconstraint panel unit root tests. Monte Carlo results show that our proposed tests have good size and power under restricted hypotheses. Keywords: Panel unit root, Constraint-based Test, Random walk, Levin and Lin test, IM, Pesaran and Shin testCite this Article N. Salma, M.F.B. Karim, F.A. Duti  et al. Modified Unit Root Test in a Random Effect Panel Data Model under Restricted Alternatives. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2016; 5(2): 1–10p.
      PubDate: 2016-06-29
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2016)
  • Odds Generalized Exponential Uniform Distribution and its Application
    • Authors: Sudhansu S. Maiti, Sukanta Pramanik
      Abstract: A new distribution, called Odds generalized exponential uniform distribution (OGEUD) is proposed for modeling lifetime data. A comprehensive account of the mathematical properties of the new distribution including estimation and simulation issues is presented. A data set has been analyzed to illustrate its applicability. Keywords: Exponential distribution, maximum likelihood estimation, Odds function, T-X family of distributions, reliability propertiesCite this Article Maiti Sudhansu S, Sukanta Pramanik. Odds Generalized Exponential Uniform Distribution and its Application. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2016; 5(1): 33–45p.
      PubDate: 2016-05-17
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2016)
  • Entropy and Noiseless Coding Theorem
    • Authors: Sandeep Kaur, Sukhjeet Singh
      Abstract: This paper makes utilization of Kraft's inequality in unique to demonstrate quiet coding hypotheses. In coding hypothesis, we examine different properties of codes for application in information pressure, cryptography, mistake revision, and system coding. The investigation of codes is presented in information theory, electrical designing, arithmetic, and PC sciences for the transmission of information through solid and productive strategies. We need to consider how coding of messages should be possible proficiently so that the greatest number of messages can be sent over a silent divert in a given time. Along these lines, the base estimation of mean codeword length subject to a given limitation on codeword lengths must be established. This paper introduces mean codeword length of order and type for 1:1 codes and analyzed the relationship between average codeword length and fuzzy information measures for binary 1:1 codes. Further, noiseless coding theorem associated with fuzzy information measure has been established. Keywords: Noiseless coding, entropy, Kraft’s inequalityCite this Article Sandeep Kaur, Sukhjeet Singh. Entropy and Noiseless Coding Theorem. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2016; 5(1): 27–32p.
      PubDate: 2016-05-17
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2016)
  • Ageing Classes in Discrete Time Based on Hazard Rate: A Review and New
    • Authors: P. G. Sankaran, Nidhi P Ramesh, N. Unnikrishnan Nair
      Abstract: In the present paper, we review and study different ageing classes for discrete lifetime data using hazard rates. They give us an indication of the pattern of failure of the systems. We discuss four major ageing classes viz. monotone hazard rate class, increasing (decreasing) hazard rate of order 2 class, increasing (decreasing) hazard rate average class and new better used in hazard rate. The interrelationships among these classes are also studied. The odds function in discrete set up is employed to characterize monotone hazard rate classes. These ageing classes are related to various well known stochastic orders. The properties and applications of these classes are discussed. Keywords: Ageing, hazard, discrete, monotoneCite this Article Sankaran PG, Ramesh Nidhi P, Unnikrishnan Nair N. Ageing Classes in Discrete Time Based on Hazard Rate: A Review and New Results. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2016; 5(1): 10–26p.

      PubDate: 2016-05-17
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2016)
  • Statistical Methods for Clinical Trials: A Review
    • Authors: Kriti Gupta, Isha Chandra
      Abstract: Clinical trials are used to develop and test interventions in nearly all areas of medicine and public health. In many countries, approval for marketing new drugs hinges on efficacy and safety results from clinical trials. Similar requirements exist for the marketing of vaccines. The randomized clinical trial is widely viewed to be the gold standard for evaluation of treatments, diagnostic procedures, or disease screening. The proper design and analysis of a clinical trial requires careful consideration of the study objectives whether to demonstrate treatment superiority and the nature of the primary end point. Different statistical methods apply when the end point variable is discrete, continuous, or time to event. Other complicating factors include patient noncompliance, loss to follow-up, missing data, and multiple comparisons when more than two treatments are evaluated in the same study. This article provides an overview of the basic statistical approaches for analyzing clinical trials with binary, continuous or time-to-event outcomes as well as methods for handling protocol deviations due to noncompliance and early drop-out. Issues surrounding the determination of sample size and power of clinical trials are also discussed. Subgroup analyses are common in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). There are many easily accessible guidelines on the selection and analysis of subgroups but the key messages do not seem to be universally accepted and inappropriate analyses continue to appear in the literature. This has potentially serious implications because erroneous identification of differential subgroup effects may lead to inappropriate provision or withholding of treatment. Keywords: Clinical, statistical, drug, FDACite this Article Kriti Gupta, Isha Chandra. Statistical Methods for Clinical Trials: A Review. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2016; 5(1): 5–9p.
      PubDate: 2016-05-11
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2016)
  • Recent Trends and Advances in Biostatistics
    • Authors: Richa Chaudhary, Saba Ansari, Isha Chanda
      Abstract: Biostatistics is that subdivision of statistics which is responsible for the appropriate elucidation of scientific facts and figures produced in biology, and other biological and health science related researches and studies. The review discusses and focuses on the applications of biostatistics, computational tools used in the biostatistical calculations and the trends and advancements in the field of biostatistics. Keywords: Biostatistics, computational tools, genetic sequencing, pathwaysCite this Article Richa Chaudhary, Saba Ansari, Isha Chandra. Recent Trends and Advances in Biostatistics. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2016; 5(1): 1–4p.
      PubDate: 2016-05-10
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2016)
  • A Density Version of A Local Limit Theorem for Properly Normalised
           Weighted Sums
    • Authors: KN Raviprakash, K Vidyalaxmi, Gooty Divanji
      Abstract: Let be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables with a common distribution function F with. Let  and, where f is positive, non - decreasing and continuous on [0,1] with . Let  be an integer sequence such that, , where  and are sequences of norming constants with as . We obtain a moment convergence result for and a density version of a local limit theorem when distribution function F belongs to the domain of partial attraction of a semistable law. Keywords and Phrases: Limit distribution, Domain of partial attraction, Moment convergence, Local limit theorem.Cite this Article KN Raviprakash, K Vidyalaxmi, Gooty Divanji. A density version of a local limit theorem for properly normalised weighted sums. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2015; 4(3): 29–37p.

      PubDate: 2015-12-28
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2015)
  • An Extensive Review on Statistics
    • Authors: Ashutosh Awasthi, Asit Srivastava
      Abstract: When a census is not possible a selected set of the population known as a sample is studied. Once a sample that is representative of the population is decided, information is collected for the sample members in a data-base or experimental setting. Again, descriptive statistics may be accustomed to summarize the sample information. However, the drawing of the sample has been subject to a component of randomness, therefore the established numerical descriptors from the sample are also because of uncertainty. Still, to draw purposeful conclusions regarding the whole population, inferential statistics is required. It uses patterns within the sample information to draw inferences regarding the population depicted, accounting for randomness. These inferences might take the shape of respondent yes or no questions about the information hypothesis testing, estimating numerical characteristics of the information estimation, describing associations at intervals, the information correlation and modeling relationships at intervals of the information. Reasoning will extend to forecasting, prediction and estimation of unobserved values either in or related to the population being studied; it will embody extrapolation and interpolation of your time series or abstract information, and may conjointly embody data processing. Keywords: Population, analysis, mathematics, null hypothesisCite this Article Ashutosh Awasthi, Asit Srivastava. An extensive review on statistics. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2015; 4(3): 19–28p.
      PubDate: 2015-12-28
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2015)
  • A Review on Statistical Analysis Correlation and Regression
    • Authors: Richa Chaudhary, Isha Chandra, Saba Ansari
      Abstract: In statistics, dependence is any applied mathematics relationship between two random variables or two sets of information. Correlation refers to any of a broad category of applied mathematics relationships involving dependence; acquainted samples of dependent phenomena embrace the correlation between the physical statures of oldsters and their offspring, and therefore the correlation between the demand for a product and its worth. Keywords: Correlation, Regression, Multiple Linear Regression, VariablesCite this Article Chaudhary et al. A review on statistical analysis correlation and regression. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2015; 4(3): 14–18p.
      PubDate: 2015-12-28
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2015)
  • Determinants of Under-Five Mortality by Using Multivariate Proportional
           Hazard Model: A Case Study in Bangladesh
    • Authors: Suman Biswas, Md. Yasin Ali Parh
      Abstract: Bangladesh wants to achieve the millennium development goals which is related to infant and under-five mortality by the year 2015. To achieve the goals it is needed to reduce the child mortality and to reduce mortality in Bangladesh it is needed to determine the determinants of mortality. Thus, the main purpose of this study is to find the determinants of under-five mortality in Bangladesh. The objective of this study is to determine the impact of parental, socioeconomic, demographic, environmental, and nutritional and health seeking variables on under-five mortality. This study used the data extracted from Bangladesh demographic and health survey (BDHS). Chi-square test for dependency checking and multivariate proportional hazard analysis techniques are used to investigate the effects of those variables on under-five mortality. The study results show that several socioeconomic, demographic, nutritional, environmental and health related variables effect on under-five mortality. Multivariate hazards analysis results show that father’s education, region of residence, preceding birth interval, number of children under-five years of age, mother’s age, contraceptive use and breastfeeding have significant effect on under-five mortality. In this study it has revealed that the environmental, demographic, nutritional and health seeking variables have highly significant impact on under-five mortality than the socioeconomic variables. Therefore, we should give attention to these influencing variables to reduce the rate of under-five mortality in Bangladesh. Keywords: Under-five mortality, bivariate analysis, multivariate proportional hazard, relative risk (odds ratio), determinantsCite this Article Suman Biswas, Md. Yasin Ali Parh. Determinants of Under-Five Mortality by Using Multivariate Proportional Hazard Model: A Case Study of Bangladesh. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics. 2015; 4(3): 1–13p.

      PubDate: 2015-12-04
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2015)
  • Effect of Imprecisely Specified Life Style Factors on Gallbladder
           Carcinoma: A Simple Bayes Study
    • Authors: Richa Srivastava, S. K. Upadhyay, V. K. Shukla
      Abstract: Medical data are often not available in a clear form for the routine implementation of statistical techniques. The paper considers one such imprecisely specified data on two life style factors to examine if the same can be considered as causal factors for the development of gallbladder carcinoma. The modelling formulation is based on the multivariate-Dirichlet combination with imprecisely specified factors treated as further unknowns in the Bayesian implementation. The prior hyperparameters are chosen in two ways based on either arbitrary choices leading to vague prior consideration or on empirical Bayes formulation. The results are illustrated on the basis of a real data example. Keywords: Imprecise data, gallbladder carcinoma, multinomial‐Dirichlet formulation, life style factors, vague prior, empirical Bayes.
      PubDate: 2015-12-04
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2015)
  • An Application of Gamma- Poisson Hierarchical Model for Modelling Failure
           to Operation Points for a Canning Process
    • Authors: Ram Prasad Khatiwada
      Abstract: Standard statistical methods are required for detecting Critical Control Points (CCPs) when Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) system is put into practice for the identification, evaluation and controlling food safety hazards. The common practice for this problem is to select CCPs by simply observing the phenomena. This work emphasizes the use of data-based information to the CCP procedure, where loss of control may result in an unacceptable product. It presents the method of obtaining posterior estimates for the failure-rate to operation points. The work considers the gamma-Poisson based hierarchical structuring for identifying and modelling critical points for the failure to different operation points of canning in a fruit juice industry. Both real and simulated data sets are considered to validate and demonstrate the proposed method using WinBUGS software.  The performance of the proposed estimators is also studied. Keywords: HACCP, gamma-Poisson hierarchical model, failure rate, food safety hazard, critical points
      PubDate: 2015-12-03
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2015)
  • Evaluation of Skip-Lot Sampling Inspection Plans by Attributes Based on
           Bayesian Methodology
    • Authors: D. Rajalakshmi, R. Vijayaraghavan, A. Loganathan
      Abstract: Skip-lot sampling is a system of lot-by-lot sampling inspection plans in which a provision is made for skipping inspection of some of the submitted lots when the quality of the submitted product is good. The plans under the system are generally viewed as an extension of continuous sampling to lots. A specific skip-lot plan under its operation uses a given lot inspection plan by the method of attributes called the reference sampling plan. An implicit assumption underlying such procedures by attributes is that the lot or process fraction nonconforming is a constant. This assumption is not fulfilled markedly, even if the production process is stable, that is, if the probability of observing a nonconforming unit is a constant. In such cases, Bayesian methodology which utilizes prior information on the process variation for taking decisions about the submitted lots can be used under skip-lot plans as an alternative to the conventional approach. This paper presents the concept of Bayesian skip-lot sampling with a zero acceptance number single sampling plan as the reference plan and its operating characteristic function under the conditions of Polya distribution. The empirical properties of operating characteristic curves of such plans for varying sets of parameters are highlighted. An iterative procedure for selecting the plans providing protection to the producer and the consumer with reference to two prescribed points on the OC curve is developed. Keywords: Lot-by-lot sampling plan, fraction nonconforming, operating characteristic function, Polya distribution, skip-lot sampling plan, single sampling plan
      PubDate: 2015-12-03
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2015)
  • Designing Re-sampling Schemes using Bayesian Methodology
    • Authors: K. Rajagopal, R. Vijayaraghavan, A. Loganathan
      Abstract: When the quality of the finished products of a production process is near perfect and the randomness of the samples is in question or the test procedures may not be accurate, re-sampling schemes are the suitable acceptance sampling plans.  In the re-sampling schemes, re-submission of lots (which are not accepted) is allowed, if the provisions of the statute permit. Such re-sampling schemes provide better protection to producer without compromising the protection to the consumer, and are (considered) more suitable ‘special sampling plans’. These schemes should be developed and designed based on the Bayesian methodology, particularly when the between-lot quality variation is more than the within-lot quality variation.  A true assessment of the sampling risks could be made by applying this methodology while designing such sampling schemes. In this paper, a re-sampling scheme is developed based on the predictive distribution of the lot quality which is a random variable, in association with the sampling distribution. The advantage of the developed sampling plan is also presented in the paper.   Keywords: Operating characteristic function, predictive distribution, re-submitted lots, sampling inspection plan and sampling risks.
      PubDate: 2015-12-03
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2015)
  • Comparison of Some Estimators under Second Order Approximation
    • Authors: Prayas Sharma, Rajesh Singh
      Abstract: Many researchers [1–5] proposed estimators for estimating population mean .  Up to the first order of approximation and under optimum conditions, the minimum mean squared error (MSE) of all the above estimators is equal to the MSE of the regression estimator. In this paper, we have tried to found out the second order biases and mean square errors of these estimators using information on auxiliary variable based on simple random sampling.  Finally, we have compared the performance of these estimators with some numerical illustration. Keywords: Simple Random Sampling, population mean, study variable, auxiliary variable, exponential ratio type estimator, exponential product estimator, Bias and MSE. 
      PubDate: 2015-12-03
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2015)
  • The Changing Trends and Levels in Fertility with Respect to Several
           Factors: A Case Study of Rural Areas of Pauri Garhwal in Uttarakhand
    • Authors: Pankaj Bahuguna, O. K. Belwal
      Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of fertility impacts on several factors in Uttarakhand. Status of women in any society is a significant pointer to the standard of that society. In all societies women not only give birth to children, but perform also childcare. Therefore, circumstances of high fertility tend to lock them up within the domestic domain. In recent times there are some changes in trends and levels of fertility. Measures of gender equality tend to be greatest in societies with low fertility. Recent decades have seen women becoming more like men with respect to levels of education, employment patterns and social status. Fertility rates fall and differences between rich and poor narrow as both groups converge on having smaller families. In this study of fertility trends, the demand for children, and the position of women in their socio-cultural contexts, the family welfare programme and its limitations are considered.  The analysis demonstrates that literacy, per capita income, child survival, use of contraceptives use, the fall in the number of children desired and women's status are responsible for declining trends and levels of fertility. The main factor is rural-urban migration to perform more effective role in reducing fertility levels. This is a case study of Pauri Garhwal. Keywords: Demography, women’s status, fertility levels, migration, gender equality, rich and poor.
      PubDate: 2015-12-03
      Issue No: Vol. 5 (2015)
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