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OECD Journal : Economic Studies
Journal Prestige (SJR): 0.314
Citation Impact (citeScore): 1
Number of Followers: 14  
  Full-text available via subscription Subscription journal
ISSN (Print) 1995-2848 - ISSN (Online) 1995-2856
Published by OECD Homepage  [80 journals]
  • Fortune or fortitude' Determinants of successful adjustment with IMF
    • Abstract: Full adjustment programs in the wake of crisis episodes exact a major toll on a country’s economy, yet not all are blessed with success.We identify adjustment needs by a country’s decision to approach the IMF for official assistance.We then investigate the factors conducive to successful exit from official assistance during more than 170 adjustment episodes by means of a panel regression framework. In contrast to the existing literature, we do not use absolute benchmarks. We define success as a resumption of real GDP growth and a reduction of government debt compared to the pre-program period. Our econometric results suggest stringent policy action do play a role for the probability of success. At the same time, we also find that successful exit also very much depends on supportive external conditions and, linked to that, the degree of openness of an economy. JEL classification: E61, F33, G01, H81
      Keywords: Fiscal adjustment, financial crises, IMF lending                                                    
      PubDate: 2017-02-14T00:00:00Z
  • Long-term growth and productivity projections in advanced countries
    • Abstract: In this period of high uncertainty about future economic growth, we have developed a growth projection tool for 13 advanced countries and the euro area at the 2100 horizon. This high uncertainty is reflected in the debate on the possibility of a “secular stagnation”, fueled by the short-lived Information and Communication Technology (ICT) shock and the current low productivity and GDP growth in advanced countries. Our projection tool allows for the modelling of technology shocks, for different speeds of regulation and education convergence, with endogenous capital growth and TFP convergence processes.
      We illustrate the benefits of this tool through four growth scenarios, crossing the cases of a new technology shock or secular stagnation with those of regulation and education convergence or of absence of reforms. Over the period 2015-2100, the secular stagnation scenario assumes yearly TFP growth of 0.6% in the US, leading to a 1.5% GDP growth trend. The technology shock scenario assumes that the third technological revolution will, in the US, provide similar TFP gains to electricity during the second industrial revolution, leading to a 1.4% TFP trend, to which we add a TFP growth wave peaking in 2040, and thus to an average GDP growth rate of 3%. In non-US countries, GDP growth will depend on the implementation of regulation reforms, the increase in education and on the distance to the country-specific convergence target, namely the US, as well. Over the period 2015-2060, for the euro area, Japan and the United Kingdom, benefits from regulation and education convergence would amount to a 0.1 to 0.4 pp yearly growth rate depending on the initial degree both of rigidity and the TFP distance to the US. JEL classification: O11, O33, O43, O47, O57
      Keywords: Growth, productivity, long-term projections, structural reforms, innovation, education                                              
      PubDate: 2017-02-14T00:00:00Z
  • Efficiency and contestability in emerging market banking systems
    • Abstract: This paper explores some of the potential determinants of efficiency and contestability in the banking systems of major emerging countries, using a sample of the 24 countries over the period 2004-13. Stochastic and data envelopment analyses are used to estimate national levels of efficiency, while market contestability is captured through the H-statistic. Panel data econometric methods are used to determine potential drivers of both efficiency and market contestability, which provides the basis for an evaluation of potential complementarities and trade-offs between these two dimensions. JEL classification: E44, G14, G21, G28, L11
      Keywords: Banking, competition, efficiency, emerging markets                                                      
      PubDate: 2017-02-08T00:00:00Z
  • National testing policies and educator based testing for accountability
    • Abstract: Increasingly accountability in education has linked student test scores to teacher and school evaluations. The underlying assumption behind this educator based accountability is that the high stakes linked to student test scores will prompt behavioral change, thus improving student learning and education quality. This study conducts a cross policy analysis using pooled data from the 2009 PISA, categorizing participant countries of the 2009 PISA into three national testing policies based on what type of educator based accountability is applied in the country. Results indicate that initial differences between national testing policy categories are not significant once school types and school practices that select on the student are included. This suggests that potential gains from more stringent accountability may be an artifact of schools under pressure engaging in practices that shape their testing pool, such as admitting only relatively high achieving students or transferring out lower achieving students. JEL classification: I21, I24, I25, I28
      Keywords: Education, PISA, accountability, testing, equity                                                  
      PubDate: 2017-02-08T00:00:00Z
  • The quantification of structural reforms in OECD countries: A new
    • Abstract: This document describes and discusses a new supply side framework that quantifies the impact of structural reforms on per capita income in OECD countries. It obtains the overall macroeconomic reform impacts by aggregating over the effects on physical capital, employment and productivity through a production function. On the basis of reforms defined as observed changes in policies, the paper finds that product market regulation has the largest overall single policy impact five years after the reforms. But the combined impact of all labour market policies is considerably larger than that of product market regulation. The paper also shows that policy impacts can differ at different horizons. The overall long-term effects on GDP per capita of policies transiting through capital deepening can be considerably larger than the 5- to 10-year impacts. By contrast, the long-term impact of policies coming only via the employment rate channel materialises at shorter horizon.
      PubDate: 2017-02-03T00:00:00Z
  • Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD
    • Abstract: The global financial crisis and the high associated costs have revived the academic and policy interest in “early warning indicators” of crises. This paper provides empirical evidence on the usefulness of a new set of vulnerability indicators, proposed in a companion paper (Röhn et al., 2015), in predicting severe recessions and crises in OECD countries. To evaluate the usefulness of the indicators the signalling approach is employed, which takes into account policy makers’ preferences between missing crises and false alarms. Our empirical evidence shows that the majority of indicators would have helped to predict severe recessions in OECD economies between 1970 and 2014. In the domestic areas, indicators that measure asset market imbalances (real house and equity prices, house price-to-income and house price-to-rent ratios), perform consistently well both in and out-ofsample. Domestic credit related variables appear particularly useful in signalling upcoming banking crises and in predicting the global financial crisis out-of-sample. Indicators of global risks consistently outperform domestic indicators in terms of their usefulness, highlighting the importance of taking international developments into account when assessing a country’s vulnerabilities. The good performance of the global indicators is however subject to a caveat: they are particularly suited to pick up recessions that affect a large number of countries simultaneously, such as the global financial crisis in 2008/09. The results are broadly robust to different definitions of costly events, different forecasting horizons and different time and country samples. JEL classification: E32; E44; E51; F47
      Keywords: Resilience, early warning indicators, vulnerabilities, imbalances, severe recessions, crises                                                
      PubDate: 2017-02-01T00:00:00Z
School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences
Heriot-Watt University
Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK
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Fax: +00 44 (0)131 4513327
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