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Journal Cover International Journal of Advanced Statistics and Probability
  [3 followers]  Follow
    
  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
   ISSN (Print) 2307-9045 - ISSN (Online) 2307-9045
   Published by Science Publishing Corporation Homepage  [12 journals]
  • Functional time series analysis of age-specific fertility rates:
           visualizing the change in the age-pattern of fertility in India

    • Authors: Mallika Deb, Tapan Kumar Chakrabarty
      Pages: 79 - 89
      Abstract: Functional Time Series Analysis (FTSA) is carried out in this article to uncover the temporal variations in the age pattern of fertility in India. Attempt is made to find whether there is any typical age pattern in the nation’s fertility across the reproductive age groups. If so, how do we characterize the role of changing age pattern of fertility across reproductive age groups in the nation’s fertility transition? We have used region-specific (rural-urban) and country level data series on Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFRs) available from Sample Registration System (SRS), India during 1971-2013. Findings of this study are very impressive. It is observed that the youngest age group of women in 15-19 years has contributed to the maximum decline in fertility with a substantially accelerated pace during the period of study. The major changes in fertility rates among Indian women dominated by the rural representation occur at the ages after 30. Further, the study also suggests that the future course of demographic transition in India from third phase to the fourth phase of replacement fertility would depend on the degree and pace of decline among the rural women aged below 30 years.
      PubDate: 2016-06-17
      Issue No: Vol. 4, No. 2 (2016)
       
  • Geometric interpretation of subjective probability: random numbers and
           objective conditions of coherence

    • Authors: Pierpaolo Angelini, Antonio Maturo
      Pages: 90 - 94
      Abstract: In the domain of the logic of certainty we study the objective notions of the subjective probability with the clear aim of identifying their fundamental characteristics before the assignment, by the individual, of the probabilistic evaluation: probability is an additional and subjective notion that one applies within the range of possibility, thus giving rise to those gradations, more or less probable, that are meaningless in the logic of certainty. When we study the criteria for evaluations under conditions of uncertainty and their corresponding conditions of coherence we show an inevitable dichotomy between the subjective or psychological aspect of probability and the objective or logical or geometrical one. The affine properties are the basis of essential concepts of probability theory and only they make sense, being independent of the choice of a coordinate system; however, the importance of the metric properties appears in order to represent random numbers and analytical conditions of coherence.
      PubDate: 2016-07-25
      Issue No: Vol. 4, No. 2 (2016)
       
 
 
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