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Journal Cover Ecos de Economía
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  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
   ISSN (Print) 1657-4206
   Published by Universidad EAFIT Homepage  [4 journals]
  • Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia

    • Authors: Leonardo Quero-Virla
      Abstract: This research aims to study the effects of oil price changes on the Colombian economy during 2001:Q1 to 2016:Q2. A structural vector auto-regression model in the spirit of Blanchard and Galí (2010) is estimated under a recursive identification scheme, where unexpected oil price variations are exogenous relative to the contemporaneous values of the remaining variables. Drawing on impulse-response estimates, a 10% increase in the oil price generates the following accumulated orthogonalized responses: i) a contemporaneous 0.4% increase in GDP growth, later on the effect reaches its maximum in the first quarter (1.7% increase) and starts to decay after two quarters; ii) a contemporaneous 1.2% decrease in unemployment, then the effect remains slightly negative and reaches its maximum after ten quarters (5.1% decrease); iii) a contemporaneous 0.9% decrease in inflation, followed by an 0.2% increase by quarter three, and thereafter the effect remains slightly negative.
      PubDate: 2016-12-02
      Issue No: Vol. 20, No. 43 (2016)
       
  • Managerial efficiency and failure of U.S. commercial banks during the
           2007-2009 financial crisis: was this time different?

    • Authors: Pilar B. Álvarez-Franco, Diego A. Restrepo-Tobón
      Abstract: Compared with previous crises few banks failed as a result of the U.S. financial crisis of 2007-2009. We investigate the role played by managerial efficiency in the non-systemic bank failures during the crisis. During previous waves of bank failures, cost-inefficient banks and banks with relatively less capital or low-quality assets were more likely to fail. Using data from 2001 to 2010, we show that profit inefficiency—our proxy for managerial inefficiency— is a robust predictor of bank failures while cost inefficiency is unrelated to them. In addition, capital adequacy lost importance in predicting non-systemic bank failures during the crisis while loan quality remained a strong predictor. Our results suggest that profit efficiency can be an important managerial indicator in monitoring banks.
      PubDate: 2016-12-02
      Issue No: Vol. 20, No. 43 (2016)
       
  • The labor-supply effects of extending health insurance to workers’
           partners: The experience of Uruguay

    • Authors: Cecilia Parada
      Abstract: In December 2010 Health Insurance in Uruguay was extended to the partners of workers in the formal labor market. This extension may have modified the incentives to participate in the formal and informal labor markets, potentially reducing overall participation or the share of individuals in the formal labor market whose partners were formally employed. Using a difference-in-differences methodology, effects of the Health Insurance expansion are estimated by comparing individuals affected by the policy over time with similar but unaffected individuals. We find negative and statistically significant effects: the policy extension reduces the share of the economically-active population in the formal labor market by 0.95 percentage points and women in formal employment in the private sector by 2.13 percentage points.  In addition to these effects, we find significant heterogeneous effects by age, educational level, and the formality conditions of the partners. We also find an effect of the policy on occupation, though of smaller magnitude and not always statistically-significant.
      PubDate: 2016-12-02
      Issue No: Vol. 20, No. 43 (2016)
       
  • An analysis of herd behavior in Latin American stock markets

    • Authors: Juan Benjamín Duarte Duarte, Laura Daniela Garcés Carreño, Katherine Julieth Sierra Suárez
      Pages: 4 - 18
      Abstract: This research investigates whether the major stock markets in Latin America (Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Argentina) exhibited herd behavior over the period January 2, 2002 to June 30, 2014, using the variation in the returns overall and by sector in the most representative stock market index in each country, using the model proposed by Christie y Huang (1995). The results do not reveal any herd behavior in the total market, or in the sectors of the markets examined in the study.
      PubDate: 2016-06-22
      Issue No: Vol. 20, No. 42 (2016)
       
  • An evaluation of the transmission of the policy interest rate to the
           financial system’s interest rates in Colombia

    • Authors: Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez, Eliana González-Molano, Carlos Huertas-Campos, Deicy Cristiano-Botia, Ximena Chavarro-Sanchez
      Pages: 19 - 45
      Abstract: This paper studies monetary policy transmission using several statistical tools. We find that the relationships between the policy interest rate and the financial system’s interest rates are positive and statistically significant, and transmission is complete eight months after policy shocks occur. The speed of transmission varies according to the type of interest rates. Transmission is faster for interest rates on loans provided to households, and is particularly rapid and complete for rates on preferential commercial loans. Transmission is slower for credit card and mortgage rates, due to regulatory issues (interest rate ceilings).
      PubDate: 2016-06-22
      Issue No: Vol. 20, No. 42 (2016)
       
  • Global trends in relative and absolute income inequality

    • Authors: Thomas Goda
      Pages: 46 - 69
      Abstract: This paper provides an overview of historic worldwide trends in relative and absolute income inequality. Depending on the concept used, inequality trends differ considerably. Inequality between countries increased strongly during 1820-2000 and started decreasing at the beginning of the twenty-first century, whether measured in relative or absolute terms. Within-country inequality, on the contrary, grew especially strongly during the last decades: Its growth rate accelerated after 1950 in absolute terms and after 1975 in relative terms. Absolute global inequality also increased substantially in the post-1950 period, whereas relative global inequality decreased slightly during this period.
      PubDate: 2016-06-22
      Issue No: Vol. 20, No. 42 (2016)
       
  • For love or for money? A study of the marriage wage premium in
           Colombia

    • Authors: Laura Gómez Duarte, Sami Gabriel Coavas Blanquicett
      Pages: 70 - 89
      Abstract: Being married may raise worker productivity and increase the probability of remaining in a job and, as consequence, obtaining a wage premium. Yet, this effect may be different for males and females. In developing countries, such as Colombia, the premium may be larger than in developed countries due to the differing social norms and labor market structures. Using cross-sectional data from Colombian Household Surveys, this paper examines the marriage wage premium and its evolution in Colombia both at the aggregate level and by gender. We find a marriage wage premium for both male and female populations; this wage premium is explained by the greater human capital endowment in married people and to employer favoritism due to the “social norms” which consider being married an appropriate behavior and reward it.
      PubDate: 2016-06-22
      Issue No: Vol. 20, No. 42 (2016)
       
  • Colombian mutual funds that invest in stocks: Do they create value?

    • Authors: Juan David Monsalve, Nicolas Arango Toro
      Pages: 90 - 110
      Abstract: In this research we evaluate the performance of 73 Colombian stock mutual funds from 2005 to 2015. To quantify the value added by these funds compared to their respective benchmarks, Jensen’s alpha is calculated using  two regression methodologies: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Quantile Regression. We also analyze whether these funds show any evidence of market timing. We recommend the creation of a private firm in Colombia that would provide investors with accurate information about the features and historical performance of Colombian mutual funds, as Morningstar Inc. does in the USA. This would enable investors to choose the best fund options andmake the mutural fund market more efficient and appealing to new potential investors.
      PubDate: 2016-06-22
      Issue No: Vol. 20, No. 42 (2016)
       
  • Exchange rate dynamics, structural breaks, and central bank interventions
           in Colombia

    • Authors: Jorge Mario Uribe, Natalia Restrepo López
      Abstract: We evaluate the effectiveness of the Colombian Central Bank´s interventions in the foreign exchange market during the period 2000 to 2014. We examine the stochastic process that describes the exchange rate, with a focus on the detection of structural breaks or unit roots in the data to determine whether the Central Bank´s interventions were effective. We find that the exchange rate can be described either by a random walk or by a trend-stationary model with multiple breaks. In neither cases do we find any evidence that the exchange rate was affected by the Central Bank interventions.
      PubDate: 2015-12-01
      Issue No: Vol. 19, No. 41 (2015)
       
  • An Analysis of Colombian Power Market Price Behavior from an Industrial
           Organization Perspective

    • Authors: Ona Duarte Venslauskas, John J. García Rendón
      Abstract: We analyze the behavior of spot prices in the Colombian wholesale power market, using a series of models derived from industrial organization theory.  We first create a Cournot-based model that simulates the strategic behavior of the market-leader power generators, which we use to estimate two industrial organization variables, the Index of Residual Demand and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI).  We use these variables to create VAR models that estimate spot prices and power market impulse-response relationships.  The results from these models show that hydroelectric generators can use their water storage capability strategically to affect off-peak prices primarily, while the thermal generators can manage their capacity strategically to affect on-peak prices.  In addition, shocks to the Index of Residual Capacity and to the HHI cause spot price fluctuations, which can be interpreted as the generators´ strategic response to these shocks.
      PubDate: 2015-12-01
      Issue No: Vol. 19, No. 41 (2015)
       
 
 
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