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 Natural HazardsJournal Prestige (SJR): 0.767 Citation Impact (citeScore): 2Number of Followers: 300      Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles) ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X Published by Springer-Verlag  [2570 journals]
• Automated detection and measurement of volcanic cloud growth: towards a
• Abstract: Abstract Identifying the spatial extent of volcanic ash clouds in the atmosphere and forecasting their direction and speed of movement has important implications for the safety of the aviation industry, community preparedness and disaster response at ground level. Nine regional Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres were established worldwide to detect, track and forecast the movement of volcanic ash clouds and provide advice to en route aircraft and other aviation assets potentially exposed to the hazards of volcanic ash. In the absence of timely ground observations, an ability to promptly detect the presence and distribution of volcanic ash generated by an eruption and predict the spatial and temporal dispersion of the resulting volcanic cloud is critical. This process relies greatly on the heavily manual task of monitoring remotely sensed satellite imagery and estimating the eruption source parameters (e.g. mass loading and plume height) needed to run dispersion models. An approach for automating the quick and efficient processing of next generation satellite imagery (big data) as it is generated, for the presence of volcanic clouds, without any constraint on the meteorological conditions, (i.e. obscuration by meteorological cloud) would be an asset to efforts in this space. An automated statistics and physics-based algorithm, the Automated Probabilistic Eruption Surveillance algorithm is presented here for auto-detecting volcanic clouds in satellite imagery and distinguishing them from meteorological cloud in near real time. Coupled with a gravity current model of early cloud growth, which uses the area of the volcanic cloud as the basis for mass measurements, the mass flux of particles into the volcanic cloud is estimated as a function of time, thus quantitatively characterising the evolution of the eruption, and allowing for rapid estimation of source parameters used in volcanic ash transport and dispersion models.
PubDate: 2020-02-14

• Flood vulnerability assessment using MOVE framework: a case study of the
northern part of district Peshawar, Pakistan
• Abstract: Abstract Climate variability and changes in contemporary society such as increasing population, poor urbanization and expansion of residential areas are increasing the vulnerability and frequency of flooding hazards in Pakistan, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province. Minimizing flood vulnerability needs an understanding of the factors that drive vulnerability to flooding hazard. The present study was conducted in the flood-prone areas of Peshawar, a district of KP, to evaluate flood vulnerability of the population using the Method for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe. Following this framework, an extensive literature review was conducted to develop relevant proxy indicators. Structured questionnaires were used for household surveys to collect data from 210 households in seven selected sites through simple random sampling method. The vulnerability factors, i.e., exposure, susceptibility and resilience, as well as the overall vulnerability were calculated and compared using ArcGIS tools. Results show that the overall vulnerability and the factor vulnerability of the studied sites were very high. Susceptibility and exposure factors were found to greatly influence vulnerability, and communities had low resilience in the face of flooding hazard. Addressing these indicators properly in developing strategies can reduce vulnerability and increase capacity of the communities to cope with floods in the future. Additionally, the government and disaster management agencies can play a significant role in minimizing the vulnerability to floods by strengthening physical and socioeconomic capacities through education, training and awareness about precautionary and mitigation measures.
PubDate: 2020-02-14

• The major lightning regions and associated casualties over India
• Abstract: Abstract Lightning, a climate-related highly localized natural phenomenon, claims lives and damage properties. These losses could only be reduced by the identification of active seasons and regions of lightning. The present study identifies and correlates the lightning-prone regions with the number of casualties reported over India at the state/union territory level. The seasonal and monthly composite satellite data of Lightning Imaging Sensor for the duration of 16 years (1998–2013) have been analyzed in this study for the identification of the major lightning-prone seasons and regions over India. The casualties due to lightning have also been estimated using data from Accidental Deaths and Suicides in India, National Crime Record Bureau report of India. The spatial distribution analysis reveals that lightning occurs mostly in hilly regions over India throughout the year (26 flash/sq. km/yr) and, however, causes lesser casualties because of the sparse population over the hilly terrain. The seasonal analysis reveals the most lightning phenomena occur during the pre-monsoon period (40–45 flash/sq. km/yr) over the northeast region of India. During the winter period, the lightning dominates over the northern parts of India such as Jammu and Kashmir. The state-wise casualties’ study reveals that maximum casualties are reported in Madhya Pradesh (313 deaths), Maharashtra (281 deaths) and Orissa (255 deaths) on an average per annum. The favorable climatic conditions, such as availability of moisture content, unstable atmosphere and strong convection, cause severe cases of lightning over the regions of Orissa and Maharashtra.
PubDate: 2020-02-12

• Experimental, numerical and field study investigating a heritage structure
collapse after the 2015 Gorkha earthquake
• Abstract: Abstract This paper presents an investigation of the collapse of a 325-year-old multi-tiered heritage temple during the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Kathmandu, Nepal. The research comprises a reconnaissance survey followed by a geotechnical investigation and numerical back-analysis carried out to understand the potential causes of the collapse. The assessment of the structural configuration of the temple indicated seismic vulnerability in the design due to the presence of discontinuous columns over the height of the temple and age-weakened bonding in the masonry walls. The geotechnical investigation revealed the presence of competent soil strata at the location, assisting the survey which indicated no differential or excessive settlement in the foundation. A series of cyclic triaxial tests were conducted on samples recovered during the geotechnical investigation to determine dynamic behaviour of the soil. Further, dynamic analysis of the plinth of the temple under the recorded acceleration–time history indicated a maximum drift percentage of 1.4% and residual relative displacement of 32 mm suggesting the potential reason behind the collapse. The output of this research will support seismic rehabilitation of ancient structures within World Heritage sites across Nepal and effective action plans to safeguard them against future earthquake hazard.
PubDate: 2020-02-12

• Earthquake and post-earthquake vulnerability assessment of urban gas
pipelines network
• Abstract: Abstract Urban gas pipelines network as one of the most vital lifelines plays an important role in the level of vulnerability and earthquake damage. Iran is located on the Alpide earthquake belt, which is one of the highly earthquake-prone zones of the world. The first earthquake effect, which can damage pipelines, is the transient ground deformation caused by wave propagation. The second one is the permanent ground deformation, which refers to liquefaction, landslide, and ground failure. With the failure of the gas pipelines, a fire may also occur, and consequently, the indirect damage caused by the earthquake may even further increase. This paper investigates the seismic risk of the Asaluyeh city urban gas distribution network by regarding the all geo-seismic hazard using HAZUS methodology. The post-earthquake ignition is evaluated using fault tree method, and the consequences of the design earthquake are assessed using PHAST package. Finally, the network physical damage risk, human risk, and direct economic risk are all evaluated. The results show that three possible failures may happen in the Asaluyeh gas distribution network. While the probability of an ignition occurrence is 35% for leakage and 32% for breaking, the post-earthquake ignition can affect around 30 people.
PubDate: 2020-02-12

• Returning home after Superstorm Sandy: phases in the return-entry process
• Abstract: Abstract Despite current advances in research related to return-entry process following disasters, the need to understand this process from the perspective of the returnees remains. This exploratory study examines the return-entry experience of residents returning home after Superstorm Sandy. Specifically, this study aims to identify patterns in the return experiences of residents following the ending of the evacuation order and gain insight into the temporal dimensions of the activities and decisions made following disasters. A series of six focus groups were conducted with 28 participants from communities in Ocean County and Monmouth County, New Jersey. A qualitative grounded theory approach of focus group transcripts revealed three different phases: (1) initiation and planning, (2) traveling home, and (3) arriving home. Understanding the actions and perspectives of returnees within each phase provides greater insight into the experiences of returnees during this critical time in the early disaster recovery process.
PubDate: 2020-02-11

• Frequency-content parameters of the ground motions from the 2017 M w 7.3
Ezgeleh earthquake in Iran
• Abstract: Abstract This study aims at providing the spatial contours of frequency-content parameters of ground motion records obtained during the 2017 Mw 7.3 Ezgeleh–Kermanshah earthquake in Iran. For this purpose, three scalar frequency-content parameters named the mean period $$(T_{\text{m}} )$$, the average spectral period $$(T_{\text{ave}} )$$, and the smoothed spectral predominant period $$(T_{0} )$$ are calculated. Sixty earthquake records with the closest site-to-source distances in the range of 5–330 km were used to make several high-resolution frequency-content maps for the study area. In addition, a new practical framework is presented to estimate soil condition maps based on a simplified ground motion records analyzing which could be used in rapid loss evaluation after earthquakes. As a new idea, the main features of the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio curves including amplification amplitude and peak frequency that can identify resonance effect are automatically considered in the proposed regional soil class map. The consistency between frequency-content maps with the anticipated soil condition map is discussed. Prepared maps showed that very long period range extends in the northwest–southeast direction, far from the epicenter.
PubDate: 2020-02-11

• Disaster-Resistant Community: An examination of developmental differences
• Abstract: Abstract Flood disaster-resistant community projects, which are viewed as a non-infrastructure disaster management strategy, have been implemented to encourage residents to participate in community-based disaster management programs in Taiwan. Although this strategy provides many benefits in principle, there is no agreement on what it develops, and its practice varies. In this paper, first, the concept of a disaster-resistant community is refined, building two definitional dimensions: resources and consensus-based emergency management. Based on these dimensions, the current development of a disaster-resistant community is introduced and distinguished from other categories: passive dependency, resource utilization, proactive preparedness, and comprehensive integrated plan. The main characteristics of each category are provided. The model of a disaster-resistant community enables community practitioners and public managers to assess their relative perspectives to bottom-up emergency management approaches, and the model provides considerable information to stakeholders. The disaster-resistant community matrix can notify ongoing theory building and practical experimentation to fill the current literature gap, refine the indicators of emergency management practice, and provide suggestions for voluntary participation in the community-based emergency management process.
PubDate: 2020-02-11

• Conceptualising and measuring psychological preparedness for disaster: The
Psychological Preparedness for Disaster Threat Scale
• Abstract: Abstract Most research on household disaster preparedness has focussed on physical, or material, preparation. Recently, researchers have turned attention to investigating psychological, or mental, preparedness for disasters. Reviews suggest that psychological preparedness comprises two broad mental dimensions or domains: a mostly cognitive aspect directed at the threat, involving knowledge of the threat environment and adaptive responses; and a mostly affective aspect involving self-awareness and emotional self-control. We located eight self-report measures of psychological preparedness, of which only three evidenced good psychometric properties. Of these, only the Psychological Preparedness for Disaster Threat Scale (PPDTS) developed by Zulch et al. (Psychological preparedness for natural disasters, 2012) seemed suitable for investigating psychological preparedness for disaster events in general in English-speaking contexts. A confirmatory factor analysis of data from a survey of 1253 Australian residents replicated the findings reported by Zulch et al. that the measure comprised two sub-scales: a 10-item Knowledge and Management sub-scale, and an 8-item Anticipation, Awareness and Management sub-scale. Evidence of both concurrent convergent and discriminant validity of the measure was found. The PPDTS appears to be a psychometrically sound self-report measure of householder psychological preparedness for a disaster event.
PubDate: 2020-02-10

• Lightning hazard safety measures and awareness in Bangladesh
• Abstract: Abstract Lightning is one of the most widespread and deadly hazards in Bangladesh. Bangladesh has among the highest death rates of any country. The main objective of this study is to analyze the people’s perception to investigate the potential misconceptions and myths on lightning. This paper addresses present safety knowledge and awareness among people, the spatial variation of lightning strikes from 1998 to 2013 and spatial variation of lightning deaths from 2011 to 2015 in Bangladesh. People’s perception on lightning has been analyzed using field surveys, and the spatial variation of lightning strikes and deaths has been analyzed using geographic information system. The results of this paper revealed that there are some misconceptions, myths, and misunderstanding among the different demographic groups of people in Bangladesh. Analysis of annual spatial variation of lightning flash density suggests that the northern and northeastern parts of Bangladesh have the highest lightning flash rate density. Pre-monsoon season experiences the highest rate of flash density among all seasons. Analysis of spatial variation of lightning deaths suggests that Chapai Nawabganj District of Bangladesh is in the top of the lightning death rates per million people per district over years 2011–2015. It was found that the main reasons behind this large number of deaths are lack of lightning safety knowledge and awareness, lack of shelters, and lack of lightning safety precaution training. To improve this situation and minimize the loss of lives and property, a comprehensive plan and policy should be developed.
PubDate: 2020-02-10

• Quantification of agricultural drought over Indian region: a multivariate
phenology-based approach
• Abstract: Abstract The objective, accurate and rapid quantification of agricultural drought is the key component of effective drought planning and management mechanism. The present study proposed a new index, i.e. multivariate phenology-based agricultural drought index (MADI), for quantification of the agricultural drought using long-term (1982–2015) crop phenological parameters. The 15-day global inventory modelling and mapping studies time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data (~ 8 km) were interpolated at daily scale and smoothened using Savitzky and Golay filtering technique. Different crop phenological parameters, i.e. start of season, end of season, length of the growing period (lgp), integrated NDVI (iNDVI), etc., were estimated using a combination of threshold and derivative approaches for individual pixels during kharif season. Based on the time of occurrence, the agricultural droughts may lead to delay in crop sowing, reduction in cropped area and/or decreased production. Hence, the lgp and iNDVI were selected among all phenological parameters for their capability to represent alterations in crop duration and crop production, respectively. The long-term lgp and iNDVI of individual pixel were detrended and transformed into standardized lgp (Slgp) and standardized iNDVI (SiNDVI) to eliminate the existing trends developed due to technological improvements during study period and existing heterogeneity of Indian agricultural system, respectively. The MADI was calculated by fitting Slgp and SiNDVI into joint probability distribution, where the best joint distribution family along with associated parameters was selected based on the goodness-of-fit for individual pixel. The values of MADI vary between − 4 and + 4, where the negative and positive values represent drought and non-drought conditions, respectively. The efficacy of the proposed index was tested over the Indian region by comparing with the multivariate standardized drought index, which considers the impacts of both meteorological and soil moisture drought using copula approach.
PubDate: 2020-02-10

• Stochastic assessment of slope failure run-out triggered by earthquake
ground motion
• Abstract: Abstract Analysis of the run-out of landslides is essential and vital for disaster mitigation. However, accurate run-out analysis is difficult because of the uncertainty of earthquake ground motion and variability of soil properties. To solve this problem, a new run-out assessment framework that combines the methods of probability density evolution and smoothed particle hydrodynamics is proposed. This novel framework can consider multiple stochastic factors and different slope failure models of changing sliding surfaces. We used a homogeneous 2D slope as an example and generated stochastic seismic loading samples with an intensity-frequency non-stationary ground motion model. Soil property parameters (cohesion and internal friction angle) were assumed to obey logarithmic normal distribution, and run-out parameters were evolved. Moreover, based on an equivalent extreme event, the distributions of final run-out parameters were obtained. In an example with slope height of 100 m and angle of 45°, the probability that the run-out distance is < 150 m is 90%. The probability of flow depth more than 24.5 m was about 50%. The new framework has the potential to provide references for coordinating relief efforts after landslides by predicting the extent and scope of the earthquake-induced hazard; thereby minimizing casualties and property losses caused by geological disasters triggered by earthquakes.
PubDate: 2020-02-08

• Probabilistic assessment of tropical cyclones’ extreme wind speed in the
Bay of Bengal: implications for future cyclonic hazard
• Abstract: Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) cause catastrophic loss over the coasts at the time of landfall in India, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka. To strengthen TCs’ disaster risk management works, it is obligatory to estimate their return periods and probability of occurrence. Therefore, in this study, extreme value theory has been employed for probabilistic assessment of BoB TCs’ extreme wind speed. For TCs’ extreme wind speed, Joint Typhoon Warning Centre data have been used for 44 years (1972–2015). The analyses exhibit that the cumulative probability of exceedance decreases from the cyclonic storms (CSs) to greater than supercyclonic storms (SupCSs) intensity. The exceedance probability of occurrence of CSs is about 99%, while it is about 15% for SupCSs and of greater intensity in the BoB. The most probable annual maxima show that at least one TC of hurricane category I (wind speed ≥ 64 knots) can occur every year. The return period exhibits that on an average one CS can occur once in about 0.27-years, whereas one SupCS can occur once in about 6 years in the BoB. Spatial plots of return period and probability with respect to TCs’ extreme wind speed exhibit that coasts of West Bengal, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu in India and entire Bangladesh and adjacent Myanmar coast are at high risk. This study provides a unique insight into BoB coastal countries TCs’ extreme wind risk. It is assumed that estimated TCs’ wind speed will be useful for government officials, scientists, disaster managers, engineers, public interest groups and private sectors.
PubDate: 2020-02-08

• GIS-based assessment of debris flow hazards in Kulekhani Watershed, Nepal
• Abstract: Abstract Debris flows are a hazardous natural calamity in mountainous regions of Nepal. Torrential rainfall within a very short period of the year is the main triggering factor for instability of slopes and initiation of landslides in these regions. Furthermore, the topography of the mountains and poor land use practices are additional factors that contribute to these instabilities. In this research, a GIS model has been developed to assess the debris flow hazard in mountainous regions of Nepal. Landslide-triggering threshold rainfall frequency is related to the frequency of landslides and the debris flow hazard in these mountains. Rainfall records from 1980 to 2013 are computed for one- to seven-day cumulative annual maximum rainfall. The expected rainfall for 1 in 10 to 1 in 1000 years of return periods is analyzed. The expected threshold rainfall is modeled in the GIS environment to identify the factor of safety of mountain slopes in a study watershed. A relation between the frequency of rainfall and debris flow hazard area is derived for return periods of 25, 50, 100, and 200 years. The debris flow hazard results from the analysis are compared with a known event in the watershed and found to agree. This method can be applied to anticipated rainfall-induced debris flow from the live rainfall record to warn the hazard-prone community in these mountains.
PubDate: 2020-02-08

• Evaluating flood resilience in rural communities: a case-based assessment
of Dyer County, Tennessee
• Abstract: Abstract Communities everywhere are being subjected to a variety of natural hazard events that can result in significant disruption to critical functions. As a result, community resilience assessment in these locations is gaining popularity as a means to help better prepare for, respond to, and recover from potentially disruptive events. The objective of this study was to identify key vulnerabilities relevant to addressing rural community resilience through conducting an initial flood impact analysis, with a specific focus on emergency response and transportation network accessibility. It included a use case involving the flooding of a rural community along the US inland waterway system. Special consideration was given to impacts experienced by at-risk populations (e.g., low economic status, youth, and elderly), given their unique vulnerabilities. An important backdrop to this work is recognition that Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hazus, a free, publicly available tool, is commonly recommended by the agency for counties, particularly those with limited resources (i.e., rural areas), to use in developing their hazard mitigation plans. The case study results, however, demonstrate that Hazus, as currently utilized, has some serious deficiencies in that it: (1) likely underestimates the flood extent boundaries for study regions in a Level 1 analysis (which solely relies upon filling digital elevation models with precipitation), (2) may be incorrectly predicting the number and location of damaged buildings due to its reliance on out-of-date census data and the assumption that buildings are evenly distributed within a census block, and (3) is incomplete in its reporting of the accessibility of socially vulnerable populations and response capabilities of essential facilities. Therefore, if counties base their flood emergency response plans solely on Hazus results, they are likely to be underprepared for future flood events of significant magnitude. An approach in which Hazus results can be augmented with additional data and analyses is proposed to provide a more risk-informed assessment of community-level flood resilience.
PubDate: 2020-02-07

• An analytical process-based approach to predicting breach width in levees
constructed from dilatant soils
• Abstract: Abstract An accurate prediction of the breach widening rate after the onset of a levee failure is essential for flood risk assessments. Current state-of-the-art analytical breach growth relations are empirical in nature. The large variety in loading conditions, levee design, and levee construction material, combined with the limited amount of accurate measurements of breach growth, make the development of accurate empirical breach growth relations challenging. In this paper, a process-based breach widening relation is presented for levees constructed of dilatant soils. The process-based relation is derived from the weir flow equation and a process-based erosion equation. The breach widening relation can account for the effects of variations in soil parameters. For those cases for which soil parameters are unknown, a calibrated catch-all-coefficient is provided. The relation is benchmarked against the state-of-the-art empirical breach growth relation used in the Netherlands and validated against data on historical levee failures and experimental data.
PubDate: 2020-02-06

• Coastal inundation due to tropical cyclones along the east coast of India:
an influence of climate change impact
• Abstract: Abstract Coastal inundation due to storm tides is computed using ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model along the east coast of India. Inland inundation due to storm tides is calculated every 10 km along the coast by using synthetic tracks as described in Rao et al. (Nat Hazards, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03804-z). The cyclonic winds are computed using a maximum pressure drop of the cyclone based on a 100-year return period. The coast is mapped for the maximum possible extent of inland inundation with water levels at the district level. The influence of climate change impact as a result of global warming on the coastal inundation is evaluated by enhancing the intensity of the cyclones. Peak water levels of about 10–12 m are found along the north of Odisha coast. The most vulnerable region in terms of coastal inundation in the present scenario is found in the districts of West Bengal; however, they are the least affected by about 5–6% due to climate change scenario (CCS). The most affected inundated districts by more than 50% due to CCS are observed in the Godavari deltaic region in Andhra Pradesh. Though the water levels in the Ramanathapuram District in Tamil Nadu reach more than 8 m in any scenario, the region is unaffected by the coastal inundation due to high local topography. By examining the inundated area of different water levels, it is revealed that more than 75% of the total area is inundated with greater than 2 m water levels in the northern districts of Odisha and Ramanathapuram District in Tamil Nadu.
PubDate: 2020-02-04

• Typhoon frequency sequence reconstruction and characteristics analysis in
the Southeast Coastal Area over China during the Ming and Qing dynasties
• Abstract: Abstract This study involved the systematic collation of historical data from local records, government records, etc., as well as disaster data compiled by contemporary researchers. Combined with the characteristics of modern typhoon activity and the frequency of typhoon disasters in the four provinces of the Southeastern Coastal Area over China were established. The moving t test technique and cross-wavelet power spectrum analysis were used to investigate the occurrence of typhoon in the Southeastern Coast Area over China during the Ming and Qing Dynasties. The results show that: (1) 1517–1558, 1666–1682, 1800–1816, and 1853–1874 were periods of frequent typhoons, while the typhoon mitigation periods were 1562–1572, 1696–1709, and 1786–1797. (2) The typhoons occurring in the Southeastern Coastal Area had four cycles of 5, 10, 25, and 45 years, of which the 45-year cycle was the first major cycle. This study, which reveals the characteristics of multiple disasters in the Ming and Qing dynasties, explored the temporal and spatial patterns of climate disasters in the Southeastern Coastal Area over China during the Ming and Qing dynasties. The results provide a reference for the prediction of modern climate disasters.
PubDate: 2020-02-01

• Stochastic finite-fault ground motion simulation for the M w 6.7
earthquake in Lushan, China
• Abstract: Abstract The Ya’an, Sichuan Mw 6.7 earthquake occurred on April 20, 2013. In this article, the stochastic finite-fault method (EXSIM) based on dynamic corner frequency, proposed by Motazedian and Atkinson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 95(3):995–1010, 2005), is validated to be an intelligible and productive approach for the generation of high-frequency strong ground motion. The validated model parameters were considered for the simulation at 31 selected stations, which are less than 200 km away from the fault. The input parameters included site condition, source term, and path term. The calibration of the input parameters, such as the stress drop, was achieved by using misfit functions between the observed PSA (pseudo-acceleration response spectra) and simulated PSA in the time domain. Some of the other parameters, such as distance-dependent duration, high-frequency attenuation parameter kappa, and local amplification functions, were calibrated by considering the observed recordings. In this study, we attempted to employ two different slip models for strong ground motion simulation, so that the influence on the simulation results can be revealed. Our results depicted that although the method cannot combine well, the directivity effects and the soil conditions are not adequately represented at individual stations, the synthetics satisfactorily match with the seismic characteristics regarding peak ground acceleration (PGA), response spectra, Fourier spectrum, and time history, for both the time and frequency range considered. The results also demonstrated that there is a slight difference between the simulation results of the two slip models. Finally, we compared the effects of different distance-dependent duration models for the simulated PGA. It illustrates that it is difficult to find a balance between the ground motion duration and PGA at stations with fault distance less than 20 km, which makes the duration and PGA to coincide well with the observed recordings.
PubDate: 2020-01-27

• Aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bushehr province in
Iran using ETAS model
• Abstract: Abstract Aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) has a key role in risk management after a major earthquake. The main goal of the current study is to assess aftershock hazard in a strategic and earthquake-prone region of Iran (Bushehr province). Bushehr province is a strategic region in the Middle East due to its major petroleum export facilities, industrial corridors and the Bushehr nuclear power plant. To prepare APSHA for Bushehr province, a seismic source is selected which surrounds the active faults in the study area. A uniform earthquake catalog is collected which contains information on a total of 1143 earthquakes (Mw > 4) occurred in the study area from 1900 to 2018. Aftershock parameters are calculated using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model. Aftershock sequences follow a non-homogenous Poisson’s process, and their magnitude and location depend on the size and location of the mainshock. In this study, APSHA is performed for the intervals of 1, 7 and 30 days after the mainshock, by assuming occurrence of mainshocks with return periods of 475 and 2475 years. The results show that the aftershock hazard curve is greater than that of the mainshock hazard curve.
PubDate: 2020-01-22

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