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Natural Hazards
Journal Prestige (SJR): 0.767
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  Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
ISSN (Print) 1573-0840 - ISSN (Online) 0921-030X
Published by Springer-Verlag Homepage  [2574 journals]
  • The efforts of Taiwan to achieve NDC target: an integrated assessment on
           the carbon emission trading system
    • Abstract: In this paper, we adopt a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the impacts of achieving Taiwan’s target of nationally determined contributions (NDC). We consider two types of scenarios: one implemented with the emission trading system (ETS) and the other designed under cap without trade. Our findings suggest that Taiwan’s NDC target is achievable in two policies but with different economic costs. On the one hand, ETS reconciles the demand and supply for emission allowances. More participants in the ETS increase the chance that a buyer can match the seller; moreover, the carbon price is lower. On the other hand, in the cap-without-trade scenario, industrial sectors have to pay higher prices for emission allowances if there is no market for emission–allowance exchanges. Furthermore, we find that the initial distribution of free emission allowances affects not only sectoral emissions but also GDP loss. In 2030, the GDP loss ranges from 1.8 to 2.2% in the cap-without-trade scenario and around 1.8% in the ETS. Therefore, the ETS helps achieve Taiwan’s NDC target with a lower economic loss. Taiwan, an independent energy system isolated from other countries or regions, can achieve its NDC target with the launch of ETS.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • Role of market agents in mitigating the climate change effects on food
    • Abstract: Agriculture’s ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change is critical for agricultural households as well as the general public and policymakers. Economic agents can play a vital role in adapting to climate disasters. We use a global computable general economic model (GTAP) to assess the role of the domestic market and international trade in mitigating agriculure production losses due to climate change, taking barley as an example. Our results suggest that under the worst-case scenario of extreme events, the domestic and international market imperfections would cause the losses in domestic supply for barley importers to increase by 3.5% and 0.6%, respectively. We conclude that policies aimed at integrating the markets can also effectively act as adaptation measures for climate change.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • Energy consumption by rural migrant workers and urban residents with a
           hukou in China: quality-of-life-related factors and built environment
    • Abstract: This paper compares energy consumption (electricity, gasoline, and gas) by rural migrant workers and urban residents with a hukou (a China-specific household registration system) and influential factors (including quality-of-life [QOL]-related factors, built environment, and individual and household attributes) in China. A questionnaire survey was conducted in Dalian (a coastal city) in 2014 and in Guiyang (an inland city) in 2015, respectively. A zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model was applied to understand whether and how much people consume a certain type of energy. The results showed that built environment explains 8.4–21.8% and 6.3–41.4% of the total variance in energy consumption by rural migrant workers and urban residents with a hukou. The corresponding variance related to QOL-related factors was 9.1–15.8% and 4.1–22.6%, respectively. The built environment was mostly associated with electricity consumed by urban residents with a hukou, while its influences on other types of energy consumption were moderate. Mixed effects of both built environment and QOL-related factors on reducing energy consumption were observed. Thus, it is context-sensitive whether and how much compact city development and social security policy affect residents’ energy consumption.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • Climate change impacts on socioeconomic damages from weather-related
           events in China
    • Abstract: China is vulnerable to climate change impacts, and this study investigates the potential socioeconomic damages to China from weather-related events under future climate conditions. A two-part model incorporating a hierarchical Bayesian approach is employed to explore the effects of climate on human damage (the share of affected people in a total population) and economic damage (the share of economic losses in gross domestic product). Based on these relationships, the relative changes in socioeconomic damages under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are presented at the regional and national levels. Our results show that China would experience an increase in socioeconomic damages from rainfall-related events under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, and the higher increments mainly appear in the central and southwestern areas. Future climate conditions may greatly increase national damages from drought events under RCP8.5. Damages in some northern and southeastern provinces could double by 2081–2090. The national damage to humans from cold-related events is almost unchanged in most climate scenarios; however, the associated economic damage has downtrends.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • Research on carbon price in emissions trading scheme: a bibliometric
    • Abstract: Based on the Web of Science database, this paper uses the bibliometric method to analyze the characteristics of the most relevant studies of carbon price in emissions trading scheme. Researchers have shed light on this research field since 1994. The USA and China occupy the leading research position in this field. The most productive journal is Energy Policy and the most productive author is Chevallier J. Chinese Academy of Sciences is the institution with the most publications related to carbon price. Cooperation analysis shows that the cooperation between authors, institutions and countries is constantly growing. We find out that carbon price fluctuation, influencing factors of carbon price, price mechanism of the carbon market, theory analysis of carbon pricing policy and carbon price effects are the main areas of research focus. Also, we detect that different policies, emissions level and energy prices are the main influencing factors on carbon price.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • Framing the picture of energy consumption in China
    • Abstract: China plays a critical role in global carbon reduction in the context of mitigating climate change as the essence of climate change and the associated environmental issues is energy consumption, especially the combustion of fossil fuels. This paper provides a clear picture of China’s energy consumption in the past, present and future to facilitate the understanding of what has happened, the main cause and what is likely coming. First, an extended energy flow chart is presented based on the adjusted energy balance table for China, and the detailed energy chains of final services, subsectors and the corresponding technologies are linked to the chart. This work enriches the information about sources of energy demand and contributes to the identification of key areas that should be given priority for energy transitions and technological innovations. Second, three development modes describing the relationship between energy consumption and GDP per capita are proposed based on the experiences of developed countries, and it is noted that China’s trajectory is more likely to follow the medium or low energy consumption modes. Finally, the future energy demand of China is projected in a more comprehensive and precise manner by summarizing and comparing the results of outlook reports published by well-known international organizations. The overall trend is that China’s energy consumption will continue to grow, while the growth rate will gradually slow.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • Study of the impact of energy consumption structure on carbon emission
           intensity in China from the perspective of spatial effects
    • Abstract: From now until 2030, China will be in a sprint to achieve reductions of 40–45% in carbon emission intensity by 2020 and 60–65% by 2030 compared to 2005; rigid requirements have thus been imposed for controlling carbon emission intensity. In this study, a spatial Durbin model that integrates a spatial lag model and a spatial error model is used to measure the degree of influence held by the energy consumption structure and other factors over carbon emission intensity and the spatial spillover effect. The results show that there is a spatial demonstration effect on the reduction in interregional carbon emission intensity in China. While the carbon emission intensity in the adjacent region decreases by 1%, the carbon emission intensity in this region will decrease by 0.05%, indicating that China’s regional low-carbon development model is also applicable to neighboring provinces and plays a large role in driving and demonstrating a low-carbon economy. Every additional 1% improvement toward optimizing the energy consumption structure enables the carbon emission intensity of the region to decrease by 0.21%; further, there is a positive spatial spillover effect driving carbon emission intensity decreases in neighboring areas of 0.25%. Industrial structure, energy intensity, energy price, and level of openness are the main factors influencing regional carbon emission intensity. According to the “14th Five-Year Plan,” there is an urgent need to optimize the energy consumption structure in the medium and long term and give full play to its ability to contribute to declines in carbon emission intensity.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • Assessing the technology impact for industry carbon density reduction in
           China based on C 3 IAM-Tice
    • Abstract: Thermal power, steel, cement, and coal chemical industries account 62.6% energy consumption and 84.6% carbon emissions of China simultaneously in 2015. This research use C3IAM-Tice model to analyze the impact of advanced technologies ratio increasing quantitatively. The model can explore the balance of emission reduction and economy efficiency of energy use, finally got the technology structure optimization for these four industries. The paper uses the historical energy consumption and CO2 emission, combing with the low-carbon developing goal objection, to create the database for these four energy- and carbon-intensive industries. As the result, the scenario-4, which is the most advanced technology-oriented strategy, shows 282 Mt CO2 emission reductions for the 2020 Goal. In this scenario, 26.19%, 47.43%, 65.39%, and 28.98% of the CO2 emissions per unit of added value in thermal power industry, steel industry, cement industry, and coal chemical industry could be reduced comparing with data in 2005. Although the advanced technology-oriented strategy shows the positive impact, we need to consider the cost of elimination of existed technology. On the other hand, the paper notices the future technology, with new energy alternative, low-carbon economy development, and industry restructure together, which are important factors for the low-carbon development of China.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • A simple earth system model for C 3 IAM: based on BCC_CSM1.1 and CMIP5
    • Abstract: Traditional complex climate system models used in natural sciences cannot match the integrated assessment models well due to differences in temporal and spatial resolutions and especially computational complexities. In this study, we develop a simple earth system model called Beijing Climate Center Simple Earth System Model (BCC_SESM), which is based on the complex BCC_CSM1.1 model and its CMIP5 simulation results as inputs. The basic and complete processes are considered in the BCC_SESM initiating from the carbon emission, including the carbon cycle processes in atmosphere–land–ocean, the radiation forcing and temperature changes. The emission-driven simulation results for historical and RCP8.5 scenarios are selected as the default datasets, and econometric regressions are applied to calibrate the parameters. Projection analysis and sensitive experiments with the BCC_SESM show that this model is parsimonious and robust enough to reproduce results of original complex climate system model. We also compare results of parameters and projection efficacy of different mid-lower emission scenarios simulations by applying this BCC_SESM. The results show that BCC_SESM is suitable for climate projections in the integrated assessment modeling, i.e., the C3IAM.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • Carbon emissions accounting for China‚Äôs coal mining sector: invisible
           sources of climate change
    • Abstract: Coal is the primary source of China’s carbon emissions due to the energy structure and its resource endowment. This reality creates enormous pressure and impetus for low-carbon pathways of coal production and consumption. Based on a literature review on carbon emissions accounting methods, this paper builds a source-driven CO2 emissions accounting model for the coal development sector using the emissions factor method. Scenario analysis is employed to predict future carbon emission equivalents and to indicate possible implications for climate change mitigation in this sector. Carbon emissions from coal development are mainly derived from coal mine gas emissions, which yield 62% of the sector’s total carbon emissions, followed by energy consumption. The recent decline in coal mining-driven CO2 emissions is mainly due to the strict deployment of coal mine gas and the changing structure of coal mines. The results from the scenarios suggest that the carbon emissions reduction potential will largely be determined by technology innovation in the coal mine gas industry. Policy implications for further addressing carbon emissions from the supply side of the coal industry include improvements in energy efficiency and coal mine gas extraction and utilization.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • Energy transition, CO 2 mitigation, and air pollutant emission reduction:
           scenario analysis from IPAC model
    • Abstract: In China, Energy transition was proposed in the “12th Five-Year Plan” and gained resilient support by “Energy Revolution” announced by President Xi Jinping in 2014. In Paris Agreement, there are targets set up for 2100 to be well below 2 °C, with ambitious target on 1.5 °C. China signed the agreement and will support the global target. In the meantime, large-scale actions were initiated in 2013 by the national action plan on air pollution control for the period from 2013 to 2017. None of these strategies has clear long-term target. In our studies, energy transition will be decided by the long-term target of CO2 emission reduction, air pollutant reduction, and energy security. This paper will present the analysis from IPAC model, by setting up reduction target for CO2 emission under the global 2 °C and 1.5 °C target. Energy transition, CO2 emission, and air pollutant reduction will be discussed based on these targets. For air pollutants, SO2, NOx, PM2.5, black carbon, and mercury will be included. From the results, there will be a significant energy transition by large-scale use of renewable energy, nuclear and the share of coal will be reduced to less than 20% in 2050 from 66% in 2015. Energy transition will also contribute to a drastic reduction in air pollutants.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • CO 2 emissions accounting for the chemical industry: an empirical analysis
           for China
    • Abstract: The chemical industry is one of the most important industry sectors in terms of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China. However, few studies have undertaken accounting of the CO2 emissions in the chemical industry. In addition, there are some shortcomings in the traditional accounting method as a result of poor data availability, such as the incomplete consideration of emission sources and overestimation of actual emissions. Based on the traditional accounting method and the actual situation of the chemical industry, this study proposes a method called the Emission Accounting Model in the Chemical Industry, which covers fossil energy-related emission, indirect emission generated by electricity and heat, carbonate-related process emission and the reuse of CO2. In particular, fossil energy used as feedstock is included. By applying the Emission Accounting Model in the Chemical Industry in China, the calculated CO2 emissions would be 19–30% less than the result from the traditional method. In addition, it is found that the indirect CO2 emissions generated by electricity and heat account for 67% of the total amount, the fossil energy-related emissions account for approximately 37%, the process-related emissions accounted for 2%, and reuse of CO2 accounts for − 6% in 2016. The production of ammonia, ethylene and calcium carbide generated approximately half of the total CO2 emissions in 2016. In addition, in view of emission sources and carbon source flow, two other bottom-up accounting methods are proposed that can take effect when the chemical plant-level data are available.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • Socioeconomic impacts of a shortage in imported oil supply: case of China
    • Abstract: Oil is an essential and important energy source and is related to energy security and national strategy. Based on a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model, this study examines the potential impacts on the major socioeconomic indices in China, which includes economic growth, price level, employment, household welfare, and production activity, under different imported oil shortage scenarios. Results show that oil shortage has negative impacts on China’s economic growth; if all the extra proceeds from domestic oil price increase is assigned to government budget for compensating investment loss, the negative impacts on GDP will mainly stem from its negative impacts on total consumption; the decrease in labor income plays an obviously greater role in the decrease in total consumption than the effects of an increase in CPI. The negative impacts on rural households are greater than urban households. The profit of most production sectors, and the export of almost all sectors, will be negatively influenced.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • Individual exposure to particulate matter in urban and rural Chinese
           households: estimation of exposure concentrations in indoor and outdoor
    • Abstract: According to the World Health Report, an estimated 540,000 people in China died prematurely due to indoor air pollution in 2009. The major source of indoor air pollution is the burning of solid fuels, such as coal and biomass, for household heating and cooking. To understand the current state of indoor air pollution in China, we quantified the total domestic energy consumption and exposure concentrations of pollutants in indoor environments. We investigated domestic energy consumption by fuel type and energy use in both urban and rural areas in 31 provinces in China and modified a microenvironmental exposure model to estimate the exposure concentrations of particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5). Our results revealed that in urban areas, the main source of indoor PM2.5 pollution was inflow from outdoor pollution sources. In contrast, the main source of indoor pollution in rural areas was the combustion of coal and biomass. Men who spent more time in heated indoor environments were exposed to higher PM2.5 concentrations than women. However, in rural areas, women were exposed to twice the PM2.5 concentrations than men, as they spent more time cooking and heating water.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • Climate impacts: temperature and electricity consumption
    • Abstract: One of the aspects of climate change is temperature rise. Temperature rise or fluctuations affect human economic activities and electricity consumption. This paper estimates the changes in electricity consumption due to temperature fluctuation at the county scale in rural China. By using the statistics of counties from 2006 to 2015 in a fixed-effect panel model, the results indicate that a one-degree temperature increase in summer days may lead to 0.015% more electricity consumption per capita, and this correlation may be weaker as income increases. Moreover, a one-degree temperature decrease in winter days may lead to 0.002% more electricity consumption. The northern region may consume 0.021% more electricity than the southern region when facing the same temperature drop. Overall, the effect of temperature on electricity consumption is modest, particularly for a drop in temperature, but the usage of other types of energy may increase to adapt to the cold.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • Impact of urbanization on hydrological processes under different
           precipitation scenarios
    • Abstract: According to analysing the trends of land use changes in the upper reaches of Minjiang River in the past 30 years and precipitation in the last 50 years, nine types of simulation scenarios were constructed for different precipitation conditions and urbanization development processes. Based on the “five sub-basin selection principles” and “two simulation results evaluation indicators” proposed, the paper studied the influence of the urbanization process on hydrological processes under different precipitation conditions using the SWAT model. The primary conclusions are as follows: (1) the simulation results under the two kinds of land use transfer scenarios show the same laws: (a) when forest land (or grassland) is transferred to urban land, actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil water content (SW), amount of water percolating out of root zone (PERC) and groundwater contribution to streamflow (GW_Q) show a decreasing trend, and the reduction in watershed hydrological indexes is manifested as “high precipitation > average precipitation > low precipitation”. Moreover, surface runoff (SURQ), water yield (WYLD) and annual runoff show an increasing trend, and the increment in SURQ shows “high precipitation > average precipitation > low precipitation”, while the increment in WYLD and the simulated annual runoff show “low precipitation > average precipitation > high precipitation”. (b) Through analysis of the contribution of unit proportion transfer (CUPT) of watershed hydrological indicators, “SURQ > PERC > GW_Q > ET > SW” is observed in all precipitation scenarios. (2) Comparing simulation results between the two kinds of land use transfer scenarios: the CUPT variations of ET, SURQ and WYLD and the contribution of unit area transfer variations of daily flood peak and annual runoff both show “forest land transfer to urban land > grassland transfer to urban land”. Finally, two special phenomena observed in the analysis of the simulation results were discussed. The study results can provide a scientific basis for urban planning and construction for reducing the impact on urban flood.
      PubDate: 2019-12-01
  • Publisher’s Note
    • PubDate: 2019-11-07
  • Editorial for the special issue: integrated assessment model analysis of
           climate change in China
    • PubDate: 2019-11-07
  • Early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides based on real-time
           probabilistic hazard assessment
    • Abstract: A methodology to define rainfall-landslide thresholds, using a probabilistic model in which the accumulated rainfall at any time is treated as a random variable, is proposed. The region under study is divided into areas of homogeneous rain hazard. For each homogeneous area, a probability model is fitted using state-of-the-art statistical methods, for each accumulation time considered. Thresholds are obtained by the definition of confidence intervals. Instantaneous accumulated rains, measured in real-time, are used to calculate the instantaneous probabilities of a landslide at each area and accumulation time. The maximum instantaneous probability determines the critical accumulated rain and sets the issued warning level. In addition, the model is tested, retrospectively, with the data for the disaster of April 19, 2017, in Manizales, Colombia, where 38 rainfall-triggered landslides killed 17 people and affected more than 3126 families.
      PubDate: 2019-11-06
  • From flood risk mapping toward reducing vulnerability: the case of Addis
    • Abstract: Flood risk maps for the built environment can be obtained by integrating geo-spatial information on hazard, vulnerability and exposure. They provide precious support for strategic urban planning and decision-making. These maps, generated in a probabilistic framework, can consider various sources of uncertainty in the flood risk assessment such as the occurrence of extreme flooding events, future land use and land cover, characteristics of the buildings, and exposure to flooding. This paper investigates how these maps can be used in complicated urban context such as developing countries, where engineers are forced to work with scarce or little data. Specifically, a detailed investigation on the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, has been conducted. Although the city of Addis Ababa is undergoing extensive formal housing development, it is most likely that the informal settlements will continue to constitute a significant portion of urban housing landscape in the years to come. Recent research findings and field work from a large project (FP7-CLUVA) are employed in order to provide a quantified basis for decision-making between alternative adaptation strategies for informal buildings in Addis Ababa. Risk maps, obtained by up-scaling more accurate risk assessment results at neighborhood level, are adopted for risk zoning of the urban residential texture within the city. This provides risk-based criteria for both identifying suitable flood adaptation strategies and prioritizing between viable risk mitigation measures.
      PubDate: 2019-11-02
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