- Comparing Green and Grey Infrastructure Using Life Cycle Cost and
Environmental Impact: A Rain Garden Case Study in Cincinnati, OH
- Authors: Donald Vineyard; Wesley W. Ingwersen, Troy R. Hawkins, Xiaobo Xue, Bayou Demeke, William Shuster
Abstract: Green infrastructure (GI) is quickly gaining ground as a less costly, greener alternative to traditional methods of stormwater management. One popular form of GI is the use of rain gardens to capture and treat stormwater. We used life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare environmental impacts of residential rain gardens constructed in the Shepherd's Creek watershed of Cincinnati, Ohio to those from a typical detain and treat system. LCA is an internationally standardized framework for analyzing the potential environmental performance of a product or service by including all stages in its life cycle, including material extraction, manufacturing, use, and disposal. Complementary to the life cycle environmental impact assessment, the life cycle costing approach was adopted to compare the equivalent annual costs of each of these systems. These analyses were supplemented by modeling alternative scenarios to capture the variability in implementing a GI strategy. Our LCA models suggest rain garden costs and impacts are determined by labor requirement; the traditional alternative's impacts are determined largely by the efficiency of wastewater treatment, while costs are determined by the expense of tunnel construction. Gardens were found to be the favorable option, both financially (~42% cost reduction) and environmentally (62‐98% impact reduction). Wastewater utilities may find significant life cycle cost and environmental impact reductions in implementing a rain garden plan.
- Projected Changes in Discharge in an Agricultural Watershed in Iowa
- Authors: Gabriele Villarini; Enrico Scoccimarro, Kathleen D. White, Jeffrey R. Arnold, Keith E. Schilling, Joyee Ghosh
Abstract: Our improved capability to adapt to the future changes in discharge is linked to our capability to predict the magnitude or at least the direction of these changes. For the agricultural United States Midwest, too much or too little water has severe socioeconomic impacts. Here, we focus on the Raccoon River at Van Meter, Iowa, and use a statistical approach to examine projected changes in discharge. We build on statistical models using rainfall and harvested corn and soybean acreage to explain the observed discharge variability. We then use projections of these two predictors to examine the projected discharge response. Results are based on seven global climate models part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). There is not a strong signal of change in the discharge projections under the RCP 4.5. However, the results for the RCP 8.5 point to a stronger changing signal related to larger projected increases in rainfall, resulting in increased trends, in particular, in the upper part of the discharge distribution (i.e., 60th percentile and above). Examination of two hypothetical agricultural scenarios indicates that these increasing trends could be alleviated by decreasing the extent of the agricultural production. We also discuss how the methodology presented in this study represents a viable approach to move forward with the concept of return period for engineering design and management in a nonstationary world.
- Stream Temperature Patterns over 35 Years in a Managed Forest of Western
- Authors: Maryanne Reiter; Robert E. Bilby, Storm Beech, John Heffner
Abstract: Stream temperature changes as a result of forest practices have been a concern in the Pacific Northwest for several decades. As a result of this concern, stream protection requirements for forest lands were first adopted in the early 1970s and have become progressively more stringent. While there have been multiple studies examining the effects of stream protection buffers on water temperature, there are few studies examining temperature patterns over long periods on intensively managed forests. Water temperature in the upper Deschutes River watershed, Washington has been monitored since 1975 and represents one of the longest studies of water quality on managed forests in the Pacific Northwest. This data record, collected from basins of varying sizes, has enabled us to examine the combined effects of hydro‐climatic patterns and forest management on stream temperature. Effects of harvest conducted prior to buffer regulations were clearly identifiable and most pronounced on smaller streams. We were not able to detect any response on larger channels to more recent timber harvest where riparian buffers were required. This analysis also emphasizes that it is critical to account for changing climate when examining long‐term temperature patterns. We found that in many cases the temperature improvements associated with more stringent buffer requirements implemented over the last 35 years in the Deschutes watershed have been offset by warming climatic conditions.
- A Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Analysis
in Hydraulic and Hydrodynamic Modeling
- Authors: René A. Camacho; James L. Martin, William McAnally, Jairo Díaz‐Ramirez, Hugo Rodriguez, Peter Sucsy, Song Zhang
Abstract: We evaluate and compare the performance of Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for uncertainty analysis in hydraulic and hydrodynamic modeling (HHM) studies. The methods are evaluated in a synthetic 1D wave routing exercise based on the diffusion wave model, and in a multidimensional hydrodynamic study based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code to simulate estuarine circulation processes in Weeks Bay, Alabama. Results show that BMC and MCMC provide similar estimates of uncertainty. The posterior parameter densities computed by both methods are highly consistent, as well as the calibrated parameter estimates and uncertainty bounds. Although some studies suggest that MCMC is more efficient than BMC, our results did not show a clear difference between the performance of the two methods. This seems to be due to the low number of model parameters typically involved in HHM studies, and the use of the same likelihood function. In fact, for these studies, the implementation of BMC results simpler and provides similar results to MCMC. The results of GLUE are, on the other hand, less consistent to the results of BMC and MCMC in both applications. The posterior probability densities tend to be flat and similar to the uniform priors, which can result in calibrated parameter estimates centered in the parametric space.
- Regional and Temporal Differences in Nitrate Trends Discerned from
Long‐Term Water Quality Monitoring Data
- Authors: E.G. Stets; V.J. Kelly, C.G. Crawford
Abstract: Riverine nitrate (NO3) is a well‐documented driver of eutrophication and hypoxia in coastal areas. The development of the elevated river NO3 concentration is linked to anthropogenic inputs from municipal, agricultural, and atmospheric sources. The intensity of these sources has varied regionally, through time, and in response to multiple causes such as economic drivers and policy responses. This study uses long‐term water quality, land use, and other ancillary data to further describe the evolution of river NO3 concentrations at 22 monitoring stations in the United States (U.S.). The stations were selected for long‐term data availability and to represent a range of climate and land‐use conditions. We examined NO3 at the monitoring stations, using a flow‐weighting scheme meant to account for interannual flow variability allowing greater focus on river chemical conditions. River NO3 concentration increased strongly during 1945‐1980 at most of the stations and have remained elevated, but stopped increasing during 1981‐2008. NO3 increased to a greater extent at monitoring stations in the Midwest U.S. and less so at those in the Eastern and Western U.S. We discuss 20th Century agricultural development in the U.S. and demonstrate that regional differences in NO3 concentration patterns were strongly related to an agricultural index developed using principal components analysis. This unique century‐scale dataset adds to our understanding of long‐term NO3 patterns in the U.S.
- Hydrologic Effects of Surface Coal Mining in Appalachia (U.S.)
- Authors: Daniel M. Evans; Carl E. Zipper, Erich T. Hester, Stephen H. Schoenholtz
Abstract: Surface coal mining operations alter landscapes of the Appalachian Mountains, United States, by replacing bedrock with mine spoil, altering topography, removing native vegetation, and constructing mine soils with hydrologic properties that differ from those of native soils. Research has demonstrated hydrologic effects of mining and reclamation on Appalachian landscapes include increased peakflows at newly mined and reclaimed watersheds in response to strong storm events, increased subsurface void space, and increased base flows. We review these investigations with a focus on identifying changes to hydrologic flow paths caused by surface mining for coal in the Appalachian Mountains. We introduce two conceptual control points that govern hydrologic flow paths on mined lands, including the soil surface that partitions infiltration vs. surface runoff and a potential subsurface zone that partitions subsurface storm flow vs. deeper percolation. Investigations to improve knowledge of hydrologic pathways on reclaimed Appalachian mine sites are needed to identify effects of mining on hydrologic processes, aid development of reclamation methods to reduce hydrologic impacts, and direct environmental mitigation and public policy.
- Combination of Biological and Habitat Indices for Assessment of Idaho
- Authors: Benjamin Jessup; Jason Pappani
Abstract: States and tribes are encouraged to use multiple biological assemblages in assessment of water bodies. An assessment index for each assemblage provides information on aspects of the aquatic resource that may be unique in terms of stressor sensitivity, stressor type, or ecological scale. However, assessment results relative to impairment thresholds can disagree among indices for an individual water body, leading to uncertain overall water‐body assessments. We explored options for combining stream indices for macroinvertebrates, fish, and habitat in ways that would yield the most consistent and sensitive results relative to established disturbance categories. Methods varied in the scoring or rating scales used to standardize each index value, the thresholds used to define impairment of aquatic life uses, and the ways of synthesizing multiple indices. The index compositing method that scores each index on a continuous scale and averages the scores after standardizing had superior accuracy, sensitivity, and precision. In addition, using the 25th quantile of reference sites instead of the 10th quantile resulted in a more balanced error rate among reference and degraded site categories.
- Improved Weather Generator Algorithm for Multisite Simulation
of Precipitation and Temperature
- Authors: Leanna M. King; A. Ian McLeod, Slobodan P. Simonovic
Abstract: The KnnCAD Version 4 weather generator algorithm for nonparametric, multisite simulations of temperature and precipitation data is presented. The K‐nearest neighbor weather generator essentially reshuffles the historical data, with replacement. In KnnCAD Version 4, a block resampling scheme is introduced to preserve the temporal correlation structure in temperature data. Perturbation of the reshuffled variable data is also added to enhance the generation of extreme values. The Upper Thames River Basin in Ontario, Canada is used as a case study and the model is shown to simulate effectively the historical characteristics at the site. The KnnCAD Version 4 approach is shown to improve on the previous versions of the model and offers a major advantage over many parametric and semiparametric weather generators in that multisite use can be easily achieved without making statistical assumptions dealing with the spatial correlations and probability distributions of each variable.
- A Level‐of‐Service Concept for Planning Future Water Supply
Projects under Probabilistic Demand and Supply Framework
- Authors: Tirusew Asefa; Alison Adams, Nisai Wanakule
Abstract: One of the most challenging tasks of water supply utilities is planning the timing and quantity of new water supply sources as demand for water consumption grows. Many water supply utilities target on meeting 100% of their customers' needs based on scenario‐based deterministic demand projections numbers even though there are uncertainties in both supply and demand values. This may result in under or overly conservative approach in assessing future needs. In this article, a level‐of‐service concept is introduced to capture a utility's willingness to accept a given level of risk, plan for it, and invoke a management strategy during extreme events than build a facility to accommodate those in planning for new water supply sources. Accounting for uncertainties in both supply and demand help quantify reliability by achieving a prescribed level of service. The major benefit of such an approach for planning future water supply is that it allows policy makers to evaluate the use of adaptive water management strategies and develop supply in an incremental fashion as demand warrants it. For example, if a given level of service cannot be reliably met with the existing system at a future time t, an incremental water supply project would come online to bring the required reliability level up but no more.
- A Faster and Economical Approach to Floodplain Mapping Using Soil
- Authors: Nikhil Sangwan; Venkatesh Merwade
Abstract: Flood inundation maps play a key role in assessment and mitigation of potential flood hazards. However, owing to high costs associated with the conventional flood mapping methods, many communities in the United States lack flood inundation maps. The objective of this study is to develop and examine an economical alternative approach to floodplain mapping using widely available soil survey geographic (SSURGO) database. In this study, floodplain maps are developed for the entire state of Indiana, and some counties in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Washington states by identifying flood‐prone soil map units based on their attributes. For validation, the flood extents obtained from SSURGO database are compared with the extents from other floodplain maps such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency issued flood insurance rate maps (FIRMs), flood extents observed during past floods, and flood maps derived using digital elevation models. In general, SSURGO‐based floodplain maps (SFMs) are largely in agreement with other flood inundation maps. Specifically, the floodplain extents from SFMs cover 78‐95% area compared to FIRMs and observed flood extents. Thus, albeit with a slight loss in accuracy, the SSURGO approach offers an economical and fast alternative for floodplain mapping. In particular, it has potentially high utility in areas where no detailed flood studies have been conducted.
- Modeling Streamflow and Water Quality Sensitivity to Climate Change and
Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds
- Authors: T. Johnson; J. Butcher, D. Deb, M. Faizullabhoy, P. Hummel, J. Kittle, S. McGinnis, L.O. Mearns, D. Nover, A. Parker, S. Sarkar, R. Srinivasan, P. Tuppad, M. Warren, C. Weaver, J. Witt
Abstract: Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid‐21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid‐21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid‐21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30‐40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.
- Effects of Climate and Land Cover on Hydrology in the Southeastern U.S.:
Potential Impacts on Watershed Planning
- Authors: Jacob H. LaFontaine; Lauren E. Hay, Roland J. Viger, R. Steve Regan, Steven L. Markstrom
Abstract: The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface‐depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.
- Accuracy Assessment of NOAA Gridded Daily Reference Evapotranspiration for
the Texas High Plains
- Authors: Jerry Moorhead; Prasanna Gowda, Mike Hobbins, Gabriel Senay, George Paul, Thomas Marek, Dana Porter
Abstract: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides daily reference evapotranspiration (ETref) maps for the contiguous United States using climatic data from North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). This data provides large‐scale spatial representation of ETref, which is essential for regional scale water resources management. Data used in the development of NOAA daily ETref maps are derived from observations over surfaces that are different from short (grass — ETos) or tall (alfalfa — ETrs) reference crops, often in nonagricultural settings, which carries an unknown discrepancy between assumed and actual conditions. In this study, NOAA daily ETos and ETrs maps were evaluated for accuracy, using observed data from the Texas High Plains Evapotranspiration (TXHPET) network. Daily ETos, ETrs and the climatic data (air temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation) used for calculating ETref were extracted from the NOAA maps for TXHPET locations and compared against ground measurements on reference grass surfaces. NOAA ETref maps generally overestimated the TXHPET observations (1.4 and 2.2 mm/day ETos and ETrs, respectively), which may be attributed to errors in the NLDAS modeled air temperature and wind speed, to which reference ETref is most sensitive. Therefore, a bias correction to NLDAS modeled air temperature and wind speed data, or adjustment to the resulting NOAA ETref, may be needed to improve the accuracy of NOAA ETref maps.
- A Cost‐Effective Laser Scanning Method for Mapping Stream Channel
Geometry and Roughness
- Authors: Norris Lam; Marcus Nathanson, Niclas Lundgren, Robin Rehnström, Steve W. Lyon
Abstract: This brief pilot study implements a camera‐based laser scanning system that potentially offers a viable, cost‐effective alternative to traditional terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and LiDAR equipment. We adapted a low‐cost laser ranging system (SICK LSM111) to acquire area scans of the channel and bed for a temporarily diverted stream. The 5 m × 2 m study area was scanned at a 4 mm point spacing which resulted in a point cloud density of 5,600 points/m2. A local maxima search algorithm was applied to the point cloud and a grain size distribution of the stream bed was extracted. The 84th and 90th percentiles of this distribution, which are commonly used to characterize channel roughness, were 90 mm and 109 mm, respectively. Our example shows the system can resolve both large‐scale geometry (e.g., bed slope and channel width) and small‐scale roughness elements (e.g., grain sizes between about 30 and 255 mm) in an exposed stream channel thereby providing a resolution adequate for the estimation of ecohydraulic roughness parameters such as Manning's n. While more work is necessary to refine our specific field‐deployable system's design, these initial results are promising in particular for those working on a limited or fixed budget. This opens up a realm of laser scanning applications and monitoring strategies for water resources that may not have been possible previously due to cost limitations associated with traditional TLS systems.
- Considering Climate Change in the Estimation of Long‐Term Flood
Risks of Devils Lake in North Dakota
- Authors: Gehendra Kharel; Andrei Kirilenko
Abstract: Terminal lakes are impacted by regional changes in climate. Devils Lake (DL), North Dakota, United States (U.S.), is a case in which a prolonged shift in the precipitation pattern resulted in a 10‐m water‐level rise over the past two decades, which cost over one billion U.S. dollars in mitigation. Currently, DL is 1.5 m from an uncontrolled overspill to the nearby Sheyenne River, which could lead to unprecedented environmental, social, and economic costs. Water outlets recently implemented in the lake to slow the water‐level rise and prevent an uncontrolled overspill are subject to significant concerns over the introduction of invasive species and downstream water quality. We developed a hydrological model of the DL basin using the soil and water assessment tool and analyzed DL's overspill probability using an ensemble of statistically downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections of the future climate. The results indicate a significant likelihood (7.3‐20.0%) of overspill in the next few decades in the absence of outlets; some members of the GCM integration ensemble suggest an exceedance probability of over 85.0 and 95.0% for the 2020s and 2050s, respectively. Full‐capacity outlets radically reduce the probability of DL overspill and are able to partially mitigate the problem by decreasing the average lake level by approximately 1.9 and 1.5 m in the 2020s and 2050s, respectively.
- Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis Using the Sparrow Model for
Dissolved‐Solids Transport in the Upper Colorado River Basin
- Authors: Jongho Keum; Jagath J. Kaluarachchi
Abstract: Salinity in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is due to both natural sources and processes, and anthropogenic activities. Given economic damage due to salinity of $295 million in 2010, understanding salinity sources and production together with transport are of great importance. SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) is a nonlinear regression water quality model that simulates sources and transport of contaminants such as dissolved‐solids. However, SPARROW simulations of dissolved‐solids in the UCRB only represent conditions through 1998 due to limited data availability. More importantly, prior simulations focused on a single year calibration and its transferability to other years, and the validity of this approach is questionable, given the changing hydrologic and climatic conditions. This study presents different calibration approaches to assess the best approach for reducing model uncertainty. This study conducted simulations from 1999 to 2011, and the results showed good model accuracy. However, the number of monitoring stations decreased significantly in recent years resulting in higher model uncertainty. The uncertainty analysis was conducted using SPARROW results and bootstrapping. The results suggest that the watershed rankings based on salinity yields changed due to the uncertainty analysis and therefore, uncertainty consideration should be an important part of the management strategy.
- A Review of the United States' Past and Projected Water Use
- Authors: Debra Perrone; George Hornberger, Oscar Vliet, Marijn Velde
Abstract: Good information and data on water demands are needed to perform good analyses, yet collecting and compiling spatially and temporally consistent water demand data are challenges. The objective of our work was to understand the limitations associated with water‐use estimates and projections. We performed a comprehensive literature review of national and regional United States (U.S.) water‐use estimates and projections. We explored trends in past regional projections of freshwater withdrawals and compared these values to regional estimates of freshwater withdrawals made by the U.S. Geological Survey. Our results suggest a suite of limitations exist that have the potential for influencing analyses aiming to extract explanatory variables from the data or using the data to make projections and forecasts. As we explored regional projections, we paid special attention to the two largest water demand‐side sectors — thermoelectric energy and irrigation — and found thermoelectric projections are more spread out than irrigation projections. All data related to water use have limitations, and there is no alternative to making the best use that we can of the available data; our article provides a comprehensive review of these limitations so that water managers can be more informed.
- Robust Prioritization of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Using the
VIKOR Method with Objective Weights
- Authors: Yeonjoo Kim; Eun‐Sung Chung
Abstract: This study proposes a robust prioritization framework for climate change adaptation strategies under uncertain climate change scenarios, using the VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) method, a multi‐criteria decision‐making approach, together with the Shannon entropy‐based weights. The VIKOR method allows us to find a compromise solution between two decision strategies of maximizing group utility and minimizing individual regret, and the Shannon entropy is used to determine objective weights among multiple climate change scenarios. The proposed methodology was applied to the problem of selecting locations of subwatersheds for reusing treated wastewater (TWW) in a Korean urban watershed. Selected based on the sustainability concept, hydro‐environmental and socioeconomic indicators were used to evaluate the sustainability of TWW reuse under multiple climate change scenarios, using the hydrologic simulation model results and statistical data. Finally, sustainability scores under multiple scenarios were aggregated using the VIKOR together with the Shannon entropy‐based weights for the robust prioritization of adaptation strategies. According to the different levels of regret aversion or affinity, our results for water quality showed different sets of adaptation strategies as the best options, suggesting that our framework would help stakeholders seeking the robust options considering both the utility and regret.
- Introducing a Low‐Head Dam Fatality Database and Internet
- Authors: Edward W. Kern; Rollin H. Hotchkiss, Daniel P. Ames
Abstract: Low‐head dams can cause dangerous currents near the downstream face of the structure. Fatalities at low‐head dams with such currents, often referred to as “drowning machines,” are poorly documented. This technical note presents a new database of fatalities at low‐head dams in the United States together with an interactive map and web‐based user interface. The primary purpose of the system is to raise awareness, generate interest, and educate the general public and decision makers regarding these dangerous structures and the need for remediation. The database was designed as a normalized relational database of event dates, severity, location, reporter, and other circumstances. The open‐access user interface allows the general public to browse fatal incidents by geographic location and to read incident circumstances. The system allows submission of new contributions from users including all metadata needed to characterize the incident. The database is structured to include documentation verifying each entry. The site can be viewed at http://dams.byu.edu/.
- Temporal Changes in Streamflow and Attribution of Changes to Climate and
Landuse in Wisconsin Watersheds
- Authors: Rabi Gyawali; Steve Greb, Paul Block
Abstract: Previous historic trends analyses on 21st Century hydrologic data in the United States generally focus on annual flow statistics and have continued to use USGS hydro‐climatic data network (HCDN) stations, although post‐1988 diversions and runoff regulations are not reflected in the HCDN. Using a more recent dataset, Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow, version II (GAGES II), compiled by Falcone (2012), which includes more watersheds with reference conditions, a comprehensive analysis of changes in seasonal, and annual streamflow in Wisconsin watersheds is demonstrated. Given the pronounced influence of seasonal hydrology in Wisconsin watersheds, the objective of this study is to elucidate the nature of temporal (annual, seasonal, and monthly) changes in runoff. Considerable temporal and regional variability was found in annual and seasonal streamflow changes between the two historic periods 1951‐1980 and 1981‐2010 considered in the study. For example, the northern watersheds show relatively small changes in streamflow discharge ranging from −6.0 to 4.2%, while the southern watersheds show relatively large increases in streamflow discharge ranging from 13.1 to 18.2%. To apportion streamflow changes to climate and nonclimatic factors, a method based on potential evapotranspiration changes is demonstrated. Results show that nonclimatic factors account for more than 60% of changes in annual runoff in Wisconsin watersheds considered in the study.
- Streamside Management Zones Compromised by Stream Crossings, Legacy
Gullies, and Over‐Harvest in the Piedmont
- Authors: A.J. Lang; W.M. Aust, M.C. Bolding, S.M. Barrett, K.J. McGuire, W.A. Lakel
Abstract: Streamside management zone (SMZ) breakthroughs were identified and characterized to determine frequency and potential causes, in order to provide enhanced guidance for future water quality protection. Ten kilometers of SMZs were carefully examined for partial or complete breakthroughs. With partial breakthroughs the SMZ trapped sediment before it reached the stream, while complete breakthroughs appeared to have allowed sediment to have passed through with minimal restriction. A total of 41 breakthroughs occurred (33 complete, 8 partial) across 16 sites, averaging 1 complete breakthrough per 0.3 km of SMZ length. The most common complete breakthroughs were caused by stream crossings (42%), reactivation of legacy agricultural gullies (27%), and harvest related soil disturbances near/within SMZs (24%). Pearson correlations of site characteristics at breakthroughs indicated no strong relationships between breakthrough sites, representing the variable nature of these unique circumstances. Stream crossings are an intentional breakthrough for access purposes, but resulting environmental impacts can be reduced with best management practice implementation. Current recommendations for SMZs tend to work in most situations, yet further research is needed to identify causal factors and quantify breakthrough severity.
- Drainage Impacts on Surficial Water Retention Capacity of a Prairie
- Authors: Andrew C. Kessler; Satish C. Gupta
Abstract: Wetland restoration has been proposed as a tool to mitigate excess runoff and associated nonpoint source pollution in the Upper Midwestern United States. This study quantified the surficial water retention capacity of existing and drained wetlands for the Greater Blue Earth River Basin (GBERB), an intensively drained agricultural watershed. Using airborne light detection and ranging, the historic depressional storage was determined to be 152 mm. Individual depression analysis suggested that the restoration of most drained areas would have little impact on the storage capacity of the GBERB because the majority (53%) of retention capacity was in large depressions (>40 ha) which comprised only a small proportion (40 ha) depressions.
- Assessment of Flood Vulnerability Based on CMIP5 Climate Projections in
- Authors: Jihoon Park; Moon Seong Kang, Inhong Song
Abstract: The objective of this article was to assess flood vulnerability based on the representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios at city and county levels. A quantile mapping method was adopted to correct bias that is inherent in climate change scenarios. A series of proxy variables related to climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were chosen to assess flood vulnerability. Proxy variables were standardized using the Z‐score method. Principal component analysis was carried out to calculate the weighting of proxy variables. The study area was the Korean peninsula. The spatial resolution was on a city and county basis and the temporal resolution was 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s (divided into 1976‐2005, 2011‐2040, 2041‐2070, and 2071‐2100). In the spatial comparison, we found that the areas with high‐level flood vulnerability increased over time in the central region, including metropolitan areas, and near the southern coast. In the temporal comparison, we found that the RCP4.5 scenario showed a tendency to increase steadily and the RCP8.5 scenario showed a tendency to decrease in the 2055s slightly and increase again in the 2085s. The study findings may provide useful data for the determination of priority for countermeasure development, though robustness of these findings with additional future projections should be established.
- Interpolating SRTM Elevation Data to Higher Resolution to Improve
- Authors: Younggu Her; Conrad D. Heatwole, Moon S. Kang
Abstract: The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) has been a valuable resource for hydrological analysis, providing elevation data at a consistent resolution on a near‐global scale. However, its resolution (three arc‐second or 90 m) is sometimes too low to obtain the desired level of accuracy and precision for hydrologic analysis. We evaluated the performance of several methods for interpolating SRTM three arc‐second data to a 30‐m resolution grid to better represent topography and derive terrain characteristics of the landscape. STRM data were interpolated to 30‐m DEMs on a common grid using spline, inverse distance weighting (IDW), kriging (KR), natural neighbor methods, and cubic convolution (CC) resampling. Accuracy of the methods was assessed by comparing interpolated and resampled 30‐m grids with the reference data. Slope, aspect, sinks, and stream networks were derived for the 30‐m grids and compared on a cell‐by‐cell basis to evaluate their performance in reproducing the derivatives. The comparisons identify spline and KR as the most accurate interpolation methods, of which spline is preferred because of its relative simplicity. IDW provided the greatest bias in all methods with artifacts evident in slope and aspect maps. The performance of CC projection directly to a 30‐m resolution was comparable to spline interpolation, thus is recommended as the most convenient method for interpolating SRTM to a higher resolution.
- Development and Evaluation of Bankfull Hydraulic Geometry Relationships
for the Physiographic Regions of the United States
- Authors: Katrin Bieger; Hendrik Rathjens, Peter M. Allen, Jeffrey G. Arnold
Abstract: Bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships are used to estimate channel dimensions for streamflow simulation models, which require channel geometry data as input parameters. Often, one nationwide curve is used across the entire United States (U.S.) (e.g., in Soil and Water Assessment Tool), even though studies have shown that the use of regional curves can improve the reliability of predictions considerably. In this study, regional regression equations predicting bankfull width, depth, and cross‐sectional area as a function of drainage area are developed for the Physiographic Divisions and Provinces of the U.S. and compared to a nationwide equation. Results show that the regional curves at division level are more reliable than the nationwide curve. Reliability of the curves depends largely on the number of observations per region and how well the sample represents the population. Regional regression equations at province level yield even better results than the division‐level models, but because of small sample sizes, the development of meaningful regression models is not possible in some provinces. Results also show that drainage area is a less reliable predictor of bankfull channel dimensions than bankfull discharge. It is likely that the regional curves can be improved using multiple regression models to incorporate additional explanatory variables.
- The Mass and Energy Exchange of a Tibetan Glacier: Distributed Modeling
and Climate Sensitivity
- Authors: Binquan Li; Kumud Acharya, Zhongbo Yu, Zhongmin Liang, Fengge Su
Abstract: Most glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are not closely monitored for mass balance (MB) due to their inaccessibility, which makes it difficult to better understand the dynamics of glacial advancement or retreat. Surface energy budget, MB, and the resulting melt runoff were calculated for Zhadang glacier (5,710 m above sea level) of the central TP. Energy balance was calculated on 30‐m square grids for the summers of 2007 and 2008. On average, net radiation dominated the total energy source (66%) while the residual was supplied by sensible heat flux. More than 67% of the energy sink was available for melting on the glacier. Thus, less than 33% of the total energy was consumed by latent heat flux. A large and a slightly negative summer MB were calculated for the 2007 and 2008 summers, respectively. The high sensitivity of the glacier to air temperature may indicate that the lower than average seasonal temperature was more important than the increased precipitation for the slightly negative MB in the summer of 2008. Comparisons of glacial melt runoff indicated that rainfall and snowmelt were the dominant contribution to total runoff in the glacierized basin and the ice melting is also very important. Glacial melt calculation provides a basis for quantifying glacial melt‐runoff contribution to the river streamflow in the TP.
- Calibrating a Basin‐Scale Groundwater Model to Remotely Sensed
Estimates of Groundwater Evapotranspiration
- Authors: Rosemary W.H. Carroll; Greg M. Pohll, Charles G. Morton, Justin L. Huntington
Abstract: Remotely sensed vegetation indices correspond to canopy vigor and cover and have been successfully used to estimate groundwater evapotranspiration (ETg) over large spatial and temporal scales. However, these data do not provide information on depth to groundwater (dtgw) necessary for groundwater models (GWM) to calculate ETg. An iterative approach is provided that calibrates GWM to ETg derived from Landsat estimates of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). The approach is applied to different vegetation groups in Mason Valley, Nevada over an 11‐year time span. An uncertainty analysis is done to estimate the resulting mean and 90% confidence intervals in ETg to dtgw relationships to quantify errors associated with plant physiologic complexity, species variability, and parameter smoothing to the 100 m GWM‐grid, temporal variability in soil moisture and nonuniqueness in the solution. Additionally, a first‐order second moment analysis shows ETg to dtgw relationships are almost exclusively sensitive to estimated land surface, or maximum, ETg despite relatively large uncertainty in extinction depths and hydraulic conductivity. The EVI method of estimating ETg appears to bias ETg during years with exceptionally wet spring/summer conditions. Excluding these years improves model performance significantly but highlights the need to develop a methodology that accounts not only on quantity but timing of annual precipitation on phreatophyte greenness.
- A Hierarchical Model for Estimating Long‐Term Trend of Atrazine
Concentration in the Surface Water of the Contiguous U.S.
- Authors: Jian Yun; Song S. Qian
Abstract: Atrazine is a herbicide frequently detected in both surface and groundwater in the United States (U.S.), but its spatiotemporal distribution and concentration trends have only been analyzed recently at regional or local scales. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to assess spatial and seasonal variation in atrazine concentration trends between 1990 and 2010 for the contiguous U.S. A Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation algorithm was used to address the problem of left‐censored data (i.e., atrazine concentration values below method reporting levels). We observed opposing temporal trends in the northern (flat or decreasing) and southern (increasing) regions of the U.S. This spatial variation in temporal trends can be partially explained by the relative amount of cropland in the region. Flat or decreasing trends in the north are more likely in regions with high cropland coverage while positive trends in the south are more likely in regions with low cropland coverage.
- The Impact of Dynamic Environmental Flow Releases on Hydropower Production
in the Zambezi River Basin
- Authors: F.F. Nyatsanza; S. Graas, P. Zaag
Abstract: Incorporation of environmental flow releases from reservoirs has proven to be challenging due to fear of losses to existing water uses. Moreover environmental flow requirements (EFR) have not often been operationalized. This study compares the possibility of implementing dynamic EFR based on natural flows lagged against an upstream unregulated gauging point with static EFR. It simulates different scenarios with a high flow release in the wet season and analyses its impacts on hydropower production. This method accounts fully for the natural variability of environmental flows, implying less pressure on existing water uses during relatively dry years. Joint operation of two cascading dams vs. individual operation for EFR was also explored. These approaches were tested for the Zambezi River basin in Southern Africa using a water resources model, WAFLEX. Historic data on reservoir water levels, releases and power generation of the hydropower schemes were synthesized. Combining these yielded a validated series of monthly flow data for a 28 year period (1982‐2010). The results show that Kariba and Cahora Bassa reservoirs face a reduction in power produced when they would annually release an environmental flow. However, the dynamic EFR method entails smaller hydropower losses. Joint environmental flow operations will reduce overall basin power production more than if Cahora Bassa alone would release an environmental flow. However, such joint operation would be more beneficial to the ecosystem.
- Climate Trends but Little Net Water Supply Shift in One of Canada's Most
Water‐Stressed Regions over the Last Century
- Authors: S.W. Fleming; M. Barton
Abstract: The southern interior ecoprovince (SIE) of British Columbia, Canada represents the northernmost extent of the great western North American deserts, it is experiencing some of the nation's fastest economic and population growth making it one of Canada's most water‐stressed regions, and it includes two headwater basins of the transboundary (Canada‐US) Columbia River. Statistical trend analyses were performed on 90‐year regional indicator time series for annual conditions in observed temperature, precipitation, and streamflow reflecting the three major SIE river basins: the Thompson, and transboundary Okanagan and Similkameen. Results suggest that regional climate has grown warmer and wetter, but with little net impact on total water supply availability. The outcome might reflect mutual cancellation of increases in precipitation inputs vs. evapotranspiration losses. Conclusions appeared largely insensitive to low‐pass data filtering, Pacific Decadal Oscillation effects, or solar output variability. Ensemble historical global climate model runs over the same time interval support this absence of appreciable trend in regionally integrated annual runoff volume, but a possible mismatch in precipitation results suggests a direction for further study. Overall, while important changes in hydrologic timing and extremes are likely occurring here, there is limited evidence for a net change in overall water supply availability over the last century.
- Geomorphic and Ecological Consequences of Riprap Placement in River
- Authors: David Reid; Michael Church
Abstract: Riprap, consisting of large boulders or concrete blocks, is extensively used to stabilize streambanks and to inhibit lateral erosion of rivers, yet its effect on river morphology and its ecological consequences have been relatively little studied. In this paper, we review the available information, most of it culled from the “grey” literature. We use a simple one‐dimensional morphodynamic model as a conceptual tool to illustrate potential morphological effects of riprap placement in a gravel‐bed river, which include inhibition of local sediment supply to the channel and consequent channel bed scour and substrate coarsening, and downstream erosion. Riprap placement also tends to sever organic material input from the riparian zone, with loss of shade, wood input, and input of finer organic material. Available information on the consequences for the aquatic ecosystem mainly concerns effects on commercially and recreationally important fishes. The preponderance of studies report unfavorable effects on local numbers, but habitat niches created by openings in riprap can favorably affect invertebrates and some small fishes. There is a need for much more research on both morphological and ecosystem effects of riprap placement.
- Empirical Estimation of Stream Discharge Using Channel Geometry in
Low‐Gradient, Sand‐Bed Streams of the Southeastern Plains
- Authors: Stephen A. Sefick; Latif Kalin, Ely Kosnicki, Brad P. Schneid, Miller S. Jarrell, Chris J. Anderson, Michael H. Paller, Jack W. Feminella
Abstract: Manning's equation is used widely to predict stream discharge (Q) from hydraulic variables when logistics constrain empirical measurements of in‐bank flow events. Uncertainty in Manning's roughness (nM) is the major source of error in natural channels, and sand‐bed streams pose difficulties because flow resistance is affected by flow‐dependent bed configuration. Our study was designed to develop and validate models for estimating Q from channel geometry easily derived from cross‐sectional surveys and available GIS data. A database was compiled consisting of 484 Q measurements from 75 sand‐bed streams in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina (Southeastern Plains), and Florida (Southern Coastal Plain), with six New Zealand streams included to develop statistical models to predict Q from hydraulic variables. Model error characteristics were estimated with leave‐one‐site‐out jackknifing. Independent data of 317 Q measurements from 55 Southeastern Plains streams indicated the model (Q = AcRH0.6906S0.1216; where Ac is the channel area, RH is the hydraulic radius, and S is the bed slope) best predicted Q, based on Akaike's information criterion and root mean square error. Models also were developed from smaller Q range subsets to explore if subsets increased predictive ability, but error fit statistics suggested that these were not reasonable alternatives to the above equation. Thus, we recommend the above equation for predicting in‐bank Q of unbraided, sandy streams of the Southeastern Plains.
- Calibration and Verification of SWMM for Low Impact Development
- Authors: David J. Rosa; John C. Clausen, Michael E. Dietz
Abstract: The Storm Water Management Model was used to simulate runoff and nutrient export from a low impact development (LID) watershed and a watershed using traditional runoff controls. Predictions were compared to observed values. Uncalibrated simulations underpredicted weekly runoff volume and average peak flow rates from the multiple subcatchment LID watershed by over 80%; the single subcatchment traditional watershed had better predictions. Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Manning's n for swales, and initial soil moisture deficit were sensitive parameters. After calibration, prediction of total weekly runoff volume for the LID and traditional watersheds improved to within 12 and 5% of observed values, respectively. For the validation period, predicted total weekly runoff volumes for the LID and traditional watersheds were within 6 and 2% of observed values, respectively. Water quality simulation was less successful, Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients >0.5 for both calibration and validation periods were only achieved for prediction of total nitrogen export from the LID watershed. Simulation of a 100‐year, 24‐h storm resulted in a runoff coefficient of 0.46 for the LID watershed and 0.59 for the traditional watershed. Results suggest either calibration is needed to improve predictions for LID watersheds or expanded look‐up tables for Green–Ampt infiltration parameter values that account for compaction of urban soil and antecedent conditions are needed.
- Climate Change Impacts and Uncertainties on Spring Flooding of Lake
Champlain and the Richelieu River
- Authors: Philippe Riboust; François Brissette
Abstract: The source of the Richelieu River is Lake Champlain, located between the states of New York, Vermont, and Québec. In 2011, the lake and the Richelieu River reached historical flood levels, raising questions about the influence of climate change on the watershed. The objectives of this work are to model the hydrology of the watershed, construct a reservoir model for the lake and to analyze flooding trends using climate simulations. The basin was modeled using the HSAMI lumped conceptual model from Hydro‐Québec with a semi‐distributed approach in order to estimate the inflows into Lake Champlain. The discharge at the Richelieu River was computed by using a mass balance equation between the inputs and outputs of Lake Champlain. Future trends were estimated over the 2041‐2070 and 2071‐2100 periods using a large number of outputs from general circulation models and regional climate models downscaled with constant scaling and daily translation methods. While there is a certain amount of uncertainty as to future trends, there is a decreasing tendency in the magnitude of the mean spring flood. A flood frequency analysis showed most climate projections indicate the severity of most extreme spring floods may be reduced over the two future periods although results are subject to a much larger uncertainty than for the mean spring flood. On the other hand, results indicate summer‐fall extreme events such as caused by hurricane Irene in August 2011 may become more frequent in the future.
- Identifying and Evaluating a Suitable Index for Agricultural Drought
Monitoring in the Texas High Plains
- Authors: Jerry E. Moorhead; Prasanna H. Gowda, Vijay P. Singh, Dana O. Porter, Thomas H. Marek, Terry A. Howell, B.A. Stewart
Abstract: Drought is a complex and highly destructive natural phenomenon that affects portions of the United States almost every year, and severe water deficiencies can often become catastrophic for agricultural production. Evapotranspiration (ET) by crops is an important component in the agricultural water budget; thus, it is advantageous to include ET in agricultural drought monitoring. The main objectives of this study were to (1) conduct a literature review of drought indices with a focus to identify a simple but simultaneously adequate drought index for monitoring agricultural drought in a semiarid region and (2) using the identified drought index method, develop and evaluate time series of that drought index for the Texas High Plains. Based on the literature review, the Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was found to satisfy identified constraints for assessing agricultural drought. However, the SPEI was revised by replacing reference ET with potential crop ET to better represent actual water demand. Data from the Texas High Plains Evapotranspiration network was used to calculate SPEIs for the major irrigated crops. Trends and magnitudes of crop‐specific, time‐series SPEIs followed crop water demand patterns for summer crops. Such an observation suggests that a modified SPEI is an appropriate index to monitor agricultural drought for summer crops, but it was found to not account for soil water stored during the summer fallow period for winter wheat.
- Analysis of Meteorological Drought Pattern During Different Climatic and
Cropping Seasons in Bangladesh
- Authors: Mahiuddin Alamgir; Shamsuddin Shahid, Manzul Kumar Hazarika, Syams Nashrrullah, Sobri Bin Harun, Supiah Shamsudin
Abstract: Drought is one of the most frequent natural disasters in Bangladesh which severely affect agro‐based economy and people's livelihood in almost every year. Characterization of droughts in a systematic way is therefore critical in order to take necessary actions toward drought mitigation and sustainable development. In this study, standardized precipitation index is used to understand the spatial distribution of meteorological droughts during various climatic seasons such as premonsoon, monsoon, and winter seasons as well as cropping seasons such as Pre‐Kharif (March‐May), Kharif (May‐October), and Rabi (December‐February). Rainfall data collected from 29 rainfall gauge stations located in different parts of the country were used for a period of 50 years (1961‐2010). The study reveals that the spatial characteristics of droughts vary widely according to season. Premonsoon droughts are more frequent in the northwest, monsoon droughts mainly occur in the west and northwest, winter droughts in the west, and the Rabi and Kharif droughts are more frequent in the north and northwest of Bangladesh. It is expected that the findings of the study will support drought monitoring and mitigation activities in Bangladesh.
- Seeking, Thinking, Acting: Understanding Suburban Resident Perceptions and
Behaviors Related to Stream Quality
- Authors: Kristina M. Slagle; Robyn S. Wilson, Alexander Heeren
Abstract: Theories in risk, psychology, and communication suggest aiming to inform the public about basic ecological facts may not be enough to influence knowledge of risks or behaviors to mitigate water quality risks. The risk information‐seeking and processing model and the theory of planned behavior suggest several additional variables that are likely to influence risk‐mitigating behaviors. We used data from a survey of watershed residents in Ohio to explore a model of behavioral intentions to positively impact stream health. Residents' informational norms, or the perceived pressure to know about local stream health, strongly predicted their information‐seeking behaviors. Active‐seeking behaviors predicted positive attitudes toward behaviors impacting stream health, which predicted intentions to positively impact stream health. Implications for outreach include couching communication in terms of risk found important to the local community, here wildlife were seen as negatively influenced by water quality, as opposed to plain reports typically provided by utility companies. Increasing social pressure to feel informed by emphasizing the existing knowledge of stream ecology among residents could change the norm for the less informed. A low response rate limits the generalizability of findings here, but leveraging these findings in outreach efforts could prove more successful in engaging the public to improve stream health and support policies to improve stream health.
- Development of Sediment and Nutrient Export Coefficients for U.S.
- Authors: Michael White; Daren Harmel, Haw Yen, Jeff Arnold, Marilyn Gambone, Richard Haney
Abstract: Water quality impairment due to excessive nutrients and sediment is a major problem in the United States (U.S.). An important step in the mitigation of impairment in any given water body is determination of pollutant sources and amount. The sheer number of impaired waters and limited resources makes simplistic load estimation methods such as export coefficient (EC) methods attractive. Unfortunately ECs are typically based on small watershed monitoring data, which are very limited and/or often based on data collected from distant watersheds with drastically different conditions. In this research, we seek to improve the accuracy of these nutrient export estimation methods by developing a national database of localized EC for each ecoregion in the U.S. A stochastic sampling methodology loosely based on the Monte‐Carlo technique was used to construct a database of 45 million Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulations. These simulations consider a variety of climate, topography, soils, weather, land use, management, and conservation implementation conditions. SWAT model simulations were successfully validated with edge‐of‐field monitoring data. Simulated nutrient ECs compared favorably with previously published studies. These ECs may be used to rapidly estimate nutrient loading for any small catchment in the U.S. provided the location, area, and land‐use distribution are known.
- Featured Collection Introduction: Water for Megacities — Challenges
- Authors: Ge Sun; Ari M. Michelsen, Zhuping Sheng, Andrew Feng Fang, Yizi Shang, Huilan Zhang
Pages: 585 - 588
- Characterizing and Contextualizing the Water Challenges of Megacities
- Authors: Enjie Li; Joanna Endter‐Wada, Shujuan Li
Pages: 589 - 613
Abstract: We characterize and compare water challenges confronting the 28 megacities of the world in 2014. Relying on existing literature and diverse primary data sources, we present a unique portrait at a global scale of the water implications of the rapid growth in megacities. We find that differentiating and analyzing the complexity of megacities' water problems based on geographic contexts, historical development trajectories, urban population growth rates, and forms of urban expansion helps explain the nature of the various water management problems they confront. Two governance features also shed light on megacity water challenges: fragmentation resulting from forms of megacity urban expansion; and, urban dualism resulting from contradictions between historical and cultural legacies and the rise of global engineering and technological norms for water management. The increasing vulnerability of megacities to climate change poses risks as well as opportunities for a more collective response to address this global phenomenon. Our analysis raises important questions and offers guidance about the future trajectories of many more large cities around the world that are on their way to becoming megacities.
- Beijing's Water Resources: Challenges and Solutions
- Authors: Jianhua Wang; Yizi Shang, Hao Wang, Yong Zhao, Yin Yin
Pages: 614 - 623
Abstract: Beijing's local water resources have been overexploited and the ecological and environmental pressures exceed the carrying capacity of this densely populated megacity. This article examines the current status of Beijing's water resources with respect to its industrial, residential, and eco‐environmental water usage and the challenges it may face in the near future. The article describes the context of water uses, the steps taken by Beijing to alleviate the water shortage problems, and challenges to Beijing's abilities to meet its urgent and future water needs. A multipronged strategy is proposed that aims at both the present problems and the anticipated future challenges. In particular, engineering and institutional approaches for Beijing's successful transition from overexploitation to sustainable utilization of water resources are explained. Actions include reasonable water utilization, water conservation, reclaimed wastewater, and importing water from neighboring areas. We conclude that Beijing must take additional steps in water resource management to ensure its sustainable development that involves continued urbanization sprawls and population growth. Future water resource management strategies should focus on strengthening water demand management through water conservation, efficient interbasin water transfers, use of nontraditional water resources, strategically reserving water supply, and promoting rehabilitation of the eco‐environments.
- Modeling the Effects of Extreme Drought on Pollutant Transport Processes
in the Yangtze River Estuary
- Authors: Ye Yang; Xiaofeng Chen, Yangyang Li, Ming Xiong, Zhenyao Shen
Pages: 624 - 636
Abstract: Water resources in the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE), which is the vital water supply for Shanghai, decreased by approximately 2.45 Gm3 in 2006, the second‐worst recorded drought year. A numerical model was developed to investigate the effects of this extreme drought on pollutant transport processes in the YRE. The model was calibrated against observations and displayed good agreement. Residence time, a critical hydrodynamic indicator, was implemented to indicate pollutant transport processes. Numerical experiments were conducted to examine the possibly drought‐induced influences. The model results demonstrated that the influences on pollutant transport processes varied spatially and temporally, and these influences could partly explain the observed temporal and spatial variations of total nitrate in 2006. The area most susceptible to drought is in the north branch with 2‐11 days' extension of residence time. As the drought occurred in both the high and normal water periods, its influences were more significant during the normal water period with saltwater intrusion into the north branch. The drought also introduced a pollutant transport lag in timescale of approximately five days by diminishing the seaward advection flux with freshwater discharge. In 2006, the magnified tidal influence during the drought contributed more than usual to structuring pollutant transport, as the pollutant transport processes were intensely associated with tidal flow and tidal cycle.
- Modeling Megacity Drinking Water Security under a DSS Framework in a Tidal
River at the North Pearl River Delta, China
- Authors: Dacheng Xiao; Haifeng Jia, Zheng Wang
Pages: 637 - 654
Abstract: A modeling study was undertaken under a decision support system (DSS) for drinking water security in the Foshan section of the Beijiang River, a typical tidal river in the North Pearl River Delta. The DSS included a database layer, application support layer, and an application layer. As an integral part of the DSS application support layer, an integrated modeling system was developed to simulate hydrodynamics. The balance of dissolved oxygen and toxicants was based on an environmental fluid dynamics code and a water quality analysis simulation program (WASP) modeling framework. Model calibration and validation was undertaken using monitoring data in normal hydrological conditions. Four scenarios for the environmental management of water, including current water temp‐spatial feature analysis, control of pollution sources, and emergency response, were designed and analyzed in the DSS. The results indicated that the tide downstream has a distinct influence on hydrodynamics and pollutant diffusion, and the DSS could be used to design effective schemes to reduce pollutant discharges and provide emergency responses for ensuring drinking water security.
- Integrated Modeling of Water Supply and Demand under Management Options
and Climate Change Scenarios in Chifeng City, China
- Authors: Lu Hao; Ge Sun, Yongqiang Liu, Hong Qian
Pages: 655 - 671
Abstract: Water resource management is becoming increasingly challenging in northern China because of the rapid increase in water demand and decline in water supply due to climate change. We provide a case study demonstrating the importance of integrated watershed management in sustaining water resources in Chifeng City, northern China. We examine the consequences of various climate change scenarios and adaptive management options on water supply by integrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and Water Evaluation and Planning models. We show how integrated modeling is useful in projecting the likely effects of management options using limited information. Our study indicates that constructing more reservoirs can alleviate the current water shortage and groundwater depletion problems. However, this option is not necessarily the most effective measure to solve water supply problems; instead, improving irrigation efficiency and changing cropping structure may be more effective. Furthermore, measures to increase water supply have limited effects on water availability under a continuous drought and a dry‐and‐warm climate scenario. We conclude that the combined measure of reducing water demand and increasing supply is the most effective and practical solution for the water shortage problems in the study area.
- Changing the Course of Rivers in an Asian City: Linking Landscapes to
Human Benefits through Iterative Modeling and Design
- Authors: Derek Vollmer; Diogo Costa, Ervine Shengwei Lin, Yazid Ninsalam, Kashif Shaad, Michaela F. Prescott, Senthil Gurusamy, Federica Remondi, Rita Padawangi, Paolo Burlando, Christophe Girot, Adrienne Grêt‐Regamey, Joerg Rekittke
Pages: 672 - 688
Abstract: Concerns over water scarcity, climate change, and environmental health risks have prompted some Asian cities to invest in river rehabilitation, but deciding on the end goals of rehabilitation is a complex undertaking. We propose a multidisciplinary framework linking riparian landscape change to human well‐being, providing information relevant to decision makers, in a format that facilitates stakeholder involvement. We illustrate this through a case study of the densely settled, environmentally degraded, and flood prone Ciliwung River flowing through metropolitan Jakarta, Indonesia. Our methodology attempts to respond to this complexity through an iterative approach, strongly based on conceptualization and mathematical modeling. Nested hydrologic, hydrodynamic, and water quality models provide outputs at catchment‐, corridor‐, and localized site‐scales. Advanced 3‐D landscape modeling is used for procedural design and precise visualization of proposed changes and their impacts, as predicted by the mathematical models. Finally, participatory planning and design methods allow us to obtain critical stakeholder feedback in shaping a socially acceptable approach. Our framework aims at demonstrating that a change in paradigm in river rehabilitation is possible, and providing future scenarios that balance concerns over flooding, water quality, and ecology, with the realities of a rapidly growing megacity.
- A Water Yield‐Oriented Practical Approach for Multifunctional Forest
Management and its Application in Dryland Regions of China
- Authors: Yanhui Wang; Wei Xiong, Stephan Gampe, Neil Andrew Coles, Pengtao Yu, Lihong Xu, Haijun Zuo, Yunni Wang
Pages: 689 - 703
Abstract: Mountainous forest areas are vitally important for water supply in dryland regions which suffer from high erosion risk and severe water shortage. Massive afforestation, mainly for erosion control, may reduce the water yield and threaten local water supply security. Moreover, many over‐dense forests due to a strict logging ban policy have produced remarkably negative impacts for both forests (e.g., low timber quality, restricted natural regeneration, and high stand instability) and water yield. To satisfy the rapidly increasing demands on water supply and other services, a practical approach for managing forest stands in a multifunctional way, which particularly addresses water yielding, is urgently required. For this purpose, we integrated the existing knowledge and experience, designed an “ideal” stand structure to represent multifunctional forest (MFF) and determined its key parameters (a ground coverage of >0.7, a canopy density around 0.7, and an H/DBH ratio (tree height [m] to the diameter at breast height [cm]) of