- Modeling the impacts of increase in temperature on irrigation water
requirements in Palakkad district: a case study in humid tropical Kerala
- Authors: U. Surendran; C. M. Sushanth, George Mammen E. J. Joseph
Abstract: Rise in temperature is one of the predicted impacts of climate change with significant implications on water resources management. An attempt has been made to calculate the water requirement of crops in different agro-ecological zones of Palakkad district in humid tropical Kerala using the CROPWAT 8.0 model. Sensitivity analysis was done for a simulated rise in temperature from 0.5 to 3.0 °C keeping other parameters the same. The analysis showed that the total crop water requirement of all the major crops, like coconut, paddy and banana, increased with rising temperature thereby increasing the simulated irrigation water demand. The gross water demand inclusive of irrigation, domestic and industries will be 1,496 Mm3. The simulated gross water demand for an increase in temperature of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 °C will be 1,523, 1,791, 1,822 and 1,853 Mm3, respectively. The maximum utilizable water resource available in the district is only 1,579 Mm3 and better water management, focusing particularly on improving the irrigation efficiency, has to be adopted to cater for the demands of the user sectors under changing climate scenario. A wide spectrum of climate change scenarios is also discussed in the paper along with guidelines for the future management of water resources.
- Modelling present and future Po river interactions with alluvial aquifers
(Low Po River Plain, Italy)
- Authors: M. Mastrocicco; N. Colombani A. Gargini
Abstract: A modelling study on a multi-layered confined/unconfined alluvial aquifer system was performed to quantify surface water/groundwater interactions. The calibrated groundwater flow model was used to forecast climate change impacts by implementing the results of a downscaled A1B model ensemble for the Po river valley. The modelled area is located in the north-western portion of the Ferrara Province (Northern Italy), along the eastern bank of the Po river. The modelling procedure started with a large scale steady state model followed by a transient flow model for the central portion of the domain, where a telescopic mesh refinement was applied. The calibration performance of both models was satisfactory, in both drought and flooding conditions. Subsequently, forecasted rainfall, evapotranspiration and Po river stage at 2050, were implemented in the calibrated large scale groundwater flow model and their uncertainties discussed. Three scenarios were run on the large scale model: the first simulating mean hydrological conditions and the other two simulating one standard deviation above and below the mean hydrological conditions. The forecasted variations in groundwater/Po river fluxes are relevant, with a general increase of groundwater levels due to local conditions, although there are large uncertainties in the predicted variables.
- Organizational values and the implications for mainstreaming climate
adaptation in Dutch municipalities: using Q methodology
- Authors: Caroline J. Uittenbroek; Leonie B. Janssen-Jansen, Tejo J. M. Spit Hens A. C. Runhaar
Abstract: Mainstreaming climate adaptation requires the inclusion of climate adaptation in the policies of various policy domains such as water management and spatial planning. This paper investigates the organizational values present in several municipal policy departments in order to explore their willingness to act upon climate adaptation and the implications for mainstreaming. Q methodology, supplemented by interviews and focus groups, applied in three major Dutch municipalities – Amsterdam, The Hague and Rotterdam – reveals three value patterns: (1) start today; (2) not for us to lead; and (3) shared responsibility. These different value patterns indicate that there is a general agreement on the problem, impacts and solutions, but disagreement on the time frame for action and the allocation of resources. Although all three value patterns are present within departments in each municipality, different value patterns prevail in each municipality. Additionally, the analysis shows barriers as well as opportunities for mainstreaming. A lack of political commitment and leadership, and unsupportive organizational structures, create barriers. In spite of this, there is willingness to act and strategic framing is applied to gain acceptance for the mainstreaming of climate adaptation.
- Assessment of climate change impacts on irrigation water requirement and
rice yield for Ngamoeyeik Irrigation Project in Myanmar
- Authors: S. Shrestha; N. M. M. Thin P. Deb
Abstract: This study analyzes the impacts of climate change on irrigation water requirement (IWR) and yield for rainfed rice and irrigated paddy, respectively, at Ngamoeyeik Irrigation Project in Myanmar. Climate projections from two General Circulation Models, namely ECHAM5 and HadCM3 were derived for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The climate variables were downscaled to basin level by using the Statistical DownScaling Model. The AquaCrop model was used to simulate the yield and IWR under future climate. The analysis shows a decreasing trend in maximum temperature for three scenarios and three time windows considered; however, an increasing trend is observed for minimum temperature for all cases. The analysis on precipitation also suggests that rainfall in wet season is expected to vary largely from −29 to +21.9% relative to the baseline period. A higher variation is observed for the rainfall in dry season ranging from −42% for 2080s, and +96% in the case of 2020s. A decreasing trend of IWR is observed for irrigated paddy under the three scenarios indicating that small irrigation schemes are suitable to meet the requirements. An increasing trend in the yield of rainfed paddy was estimated under climate change demonstrating increased food security in the region.
- Irrigation planning for sustainable rain-fed agriculture in the
drought-prone Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh, India
- Authors: T. Thomas; P. C. Nayak N. C. Ghosh
Abstract: The recent spells of recurrent and consecutive droughts in the Bundelkhand region in Central India have led to uncertain rain-fed agriculture and its sustainability. Adequate knowledge of starting dates and lengths of dry spells has a considerable importance in rain-fed agriculture, irrigation planning, and various decision-making processes. The long dry spells incur heavy costs to the affected communities in the form of lost crop production and reduced crop yield, particularly in semi-arid regions. The sustainability of agriculture very much depends on the provision of supplemental irrigation during droughts, for which a detailed analysis of dry spells is a pre-requisite. An attempt has been made to study the temporal variation of dry spell lengths to identify whether it can be related to climate change. The dry spell analysis revealed that two critical dry spells with spell lengths of 10 days and more occurs invariably every year and therefore rain-fed agriculture needs adequate supplemental irrigation backup for sustainable operations under such a scenario. The supplemental irrigation requirements have been estimated for each critical dry spell period for all development blocks in each district, which will provide useful inputs to decision-makers for planning agricultural operations during an impending drought scenario.
- Adaptation of surface water supply to climate change in central Iran
- Authors: Alireza Gohari; Ali Bozorgi, Kaveh Madani, Jeffrey Elledge Ronny Berndtsson
Abstract: Optimal reservoir operation changes and adaptation strategies for the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin's surface water supply system are examined for a changing climate during the 2015–2044 period. On average, the monthly temperature in the basin is expected to increase by 0.46–0.76 °C and annual precipitation is expected to decrease by 14–38% with climate change, resulting in a reduction of the Zayandeh-Rud's peak stream flow and the amplitude of its seasonal range. Snowfall decrease in winter months will generally lead to an 8–43% reduction in annual stream flow under climate change. A reservoir operation model is developed and optimal reservoir operation strategies are identified for adaptation of the basin's surface water supply to climate change in the face of the increasing water demand. Results indicate that the reservoir drawdown season starts 2 months earlier under climate change. Smaller storage levels and greater water releases must occur to meet the increasing water demand. The optimized water release can provide sufficient water for non-agricultural water demand, but agriculture will experience more severe water shortage under a changing climate. Having the highest vulnerability, the agricultural sector should be the main focus of regional management plans to address the current water challenge and more severe water shortages under climate change.
- Water and climate variability in developing countries: the case of Uganda
- Authors: David Baguma; Willibald Loiskandl, Jamal H. Hashim Zailina Hashim
Abstract: Water safety and climate mitigation measures are global concerns. In this study, climate variability and related health implications were examined. The data included 11,101 outpatient records in the Luwero district from the Ugandan Ministry of Health database, the records of 2,358 outpatients connected with water-related health risks linked to climate variability (diseases such as cholera, typhoid, acute diarrhoea and dysentery) from seven sub-county health centres, monthly mean rainfall data for 30 years (1977–2007), and information from 90 households that harvest rainwater near the local health units. Using a logistic regression, the analysis controlled for the following list of social factors that potentially influence capabilities: personal characteristics (education), cultural norms, the capacity to cope with shocks, seasonal variation, societal favouritism and community segregation. Integrated water management, man-made induced activities and information on effects of climate variability were important in mitigation planning. Young people, including those under the age of 18, were significantly more vulnerable than people of other ages to water-related health risks linked to climate variability. Although both the young and the elderly are susceptible to waterborne illnesses, the findings reveal a link to climate variability, which is inadequately emphasised. We recommend persistence in climate mitigation measures and control against water-related risks.
- Central Asian irrigation sector in a climate change context: some
- Authors: Shavkat Rakhmatullaev; Iskandar Abdullaev
Abstract: According to expert opinion, the Central Asian region is likely to experience climate-induced changes with the irrigation sector being the most vulnerable to any change. Climate change impacts are interconnected with land use and socio-economic changes, and many other processes of a human–environmental system. Assessment and adequate information sharing play a critical role in decision making for planning, and allocation of resources for the successful implementation of the adaptation measures. However, a successful adaptation is only possible if the interests of stakeholders and, to a large extent, communities vulnerable to the risks of climate change are provided for. This paper discusses specific assessment of potential impacts of climate change in the water sector, namely on electric pump-lifted irrigation facilities and water reservoirs in Central Asia.
- Incorporating climate change adaptation strategies in urban water supply
planning: the case of central Chile
- Authors: Sebastián Bonelli; Sebastián Vicuña, Francisco J. Meza, Jorge Gironás Jonathan Barton
Abstract: Water management systems have been typically designed and operated under the assumption of stationarity. This assumption may no longer be valid under climate change scenarios. Water availability may change dramatically at some locations due mainly to possible impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation over streamflow volume and seasonality, adding pressure to water supply systems. It has been shown that snowmelt-dominated basins are particularly sensitive to such changes. Hence, human settlements and economic activities developed in such areas are particularly vulnerable. The Maipo river basin in Central Chile – where more than 6 million people live – is one of these areas. We used a calibrated water resources model of the Maipo river basin, in order to propose a general framework to evaluate adaptation options at the urban level. When comparing a mid-21st century period to a historic control period, results for three selected performance metrics showed a decrease in water system performance. Adaptation measures were evaluated in their capacity to maintain current water security standards. Two alternatives stand as highly effective options to this end: water rights purchases and improvements in water use efficiency. The political and economic costs of implementing these options, which could deem them unviable, are not considered here but are worthy of further research.
- Re-evaluating the rationale for irrigation technology adoption through an
integrated trade-off analysis: case study of a cotton farming system in
- Authors: T. N. Maraseni; S. Mushtaq K. Reardon-Smith
Abstract: While the prevailing rationale for new irrigation technology adoption is improved water use efficiency, this study evaluated trade-offs between water savings, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and economic gain associated with the conversion of a furrow irrigation system to a sprinkler irrigation (lateral-move) system on a cotton farm in eastern Australia. Trade-offs were evident when conversion to the pressurised sprinkler irrigation system was evaluated in terms of fuel and energy-related emission; the adoption of the new system saved water but increased GHG emissions. However, when we considered changes in farm machinery and input uses as a result of the conversion, we found an overall reduction in GHG emissions. Overall, the GHG modelling indicated that higher total quantities of GHGs were emitted from the furrow irrigation (4,453 kg CO2e/ha) than from the sprinkler irrigation (3,347 kg CO2e/ha) farming system. Water efficiency modelling indicated that, on average, water savings of 18% are possible, while economic modelling indicated that the conversion of irrigation technology is a viable option. Even at a carbon price of AUD$30/tCO2e, investment in the sprinkler technology was an economically feasible option due to significant water savings and increased yield.
- A review of Australian institutions for riparian adaptation to climate
- Authors: Jamie Pittock; Nadine Marshall, Tim Capon, Meg Parsons, Alistar I. Robertson Carolina Casaril
Abstract: Australia represents a global proving ground for effective riparian climate change adaptation due to its scale and diversity, extreme variation in runoff and degrees of aridity. An array of autonomous riparian zone (RZ) management adaptations have emerged in Australia that have captivated the international community but have yet to be effectively delivered. This paper reviews government policies, governance structures, the application of market-based instruments and voluntary measures to ask why Australia has not achieved more. We find promise in: the resurgence of application of indigenous knowledge and engagement in management; understanding of the catalytic roles of women, means of better engaging individuals, strengthening of social networks and fostering leadership in rural communities; transferring of urban resources to their rural hinterlands; better engaging communities through campaigns, businesses and political leaders; and strategic research programmes. These findings have application in other difficult hydrologies. We contend that government and market-based programmes are underpinned by voluntary and cultural institutions, and that these require strengthening through fostering of an ethic to conserve RZs as the core element of the biophysical and human landscape. It calls for stakeholders to adopt a common vision for conservation of RZs that can sustain implementation through institutional changes.
- Detailed dynamic pumping energy models for optimization and control of
- Authors: W. De Keyser; Y. Amerlinck, G. Urchegui, T. Harding, T. Maere I. Nopens
Abstract: Despite the increasing level of detail in wastewater treatment process models, oversimplified energy consumption models (i.e. constant ‘average’ power consumption) are being used in optimization exercises. A new dynamic model for a more accurate prediction of pumping costs in wastewater treatment has been developed to overcome this unbalance in the coupled submodels. The model is calibrated using two case studies. The first case study concerns the centrifugal influent pumps (Nijhuis RW1-400 · 525A) of the municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Eindhoven (The Netherlands), governed by Waterboard De Dommel. For the second case study, concerning a centrifugal pump (Flygt, type NT3153 · 181) of the intermediate pumping station (pumping primary treated wastewater) of the Mekolalde WWTP, located in Bergara (Guipúzcoa, Spain), a model extension was necessary in order to allow a better description of the pump curve, making the model more generic. Both cases showed good agreement between the model predictions and the measured data of energy consumption. The model is thus far more accurate compared with other approaches to quantify energy consumption, paving the way towards ‘global’ process optimization and new, improved control strategies for energy reduction at WWTPs.
- Vulnerability of Ras Sudr, Egypt to climate change, livelihood index, an
approach to assess risks and develop future adaptation strategy
- Authors: Mohamed Tawfic Ahmed; Ibrahim Nagi, Mahmoud Farag, Naglaa Loutfi, Mohamed A. Osman, Nasser S. Mandour, Kariman Mahmoud Nehal Loutfi
Abstract: The livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability index (IPCC-VI) approaches were used to assess the vulnerability of rural and urban regions of Sudr, Sinai, Egypt to climate change. Sudr is highly vulnerable to flashfloods and drought, that many attribute to climate changes. Equal numbers of rural and urban Bedouin, amounting to about 75–90 of each, were interviewed to collect information on human and natural capital, besides social, financial, and physical attributes. The study showed that drought is the most significant manifestation of climate change, especially in rural areas. The study also showed that rural Sudr community is significantly more vulnerable to climate change than the urban community. Their isolation, illiteracy, lack of awareness, and fragile ecosystem are causes of vulnerability. The two regions showed high capabilities to overcome exposure threats to climate change. Adequate adaptive capacity of Bedouin is the main cause for their ability to overcome climate change impacts. These results might be explained in view of Bedouin local knowledge that helps them survive even through the hardest of times. The aim of the present work is to explore the socioeconomic drivers of climate change and their impacts on a Bedouin community. It also gives an insight into possible mechanisms of future adaptation strategies.
- Climate change and the water–energy nexus: an urban challenge
- Authors: Gabriela da Costa Silva
Abstract: Economic growth, often based on industrial development, together with increased human settlements on urban land, has caused the spread of cities and has increased water demand and/or consumption and water withdrawals for energy generation. In a world of increasing climate change, governments and societies have to build resilience strategies, notably for cities. This paper develops a conceptual framework based on the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model specially tailored to the water–energy nexus at the urban scale. From a policy perspective, my assumption is that this framework can serve as a benchmark to verify and build the effectiveness of climate change action plans designed for cities. In order to test the applicability of the framework developed, this paper presents the components of the proposed DPSIR and related research questions to examine the climate change action plan of New York City, one of the most populated megacities in the world.
- An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood
hazards under non-stationary conditions
- Authors: H. Åström; P. Friis Hansen, L. Garré K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Abstract: Urban flooding introduces significant risk to society. Non-stationarity leads to increased uncertainty and this is challenging to include in actual decision-making. The primary objective of this study was to develop a risk assessment and decision support framework for pluvial urban flood risk under non-stationary conditions using an influence diagram (ID) which is a Bayesian network (BN) extended with decision and utility nodes. Non-stationarity is considered to be the influence of climate change where extreme precipitation patterns change over time. The overall risk is quantified in monetary terms expressed as expected annual damage. The network is dynamic in as much as it assesses risk at different points in time. The framework provides means for decision-makers to assess how different decisions on flood adaptation affect the risk now and in the future. The result from the ID was extended with a cost-benefit analysis defining the net benefits for the investment plans. We tested our framework in a case study where the risk for flooding was assessed on a railway track in Risskov, Aarhus. Drainage system improvements are planned for the area. Our study illustrates with the use of an ID how risk for flooding increases over time, and the benefits of implementing flood adaptation measures.