Abstract: BACKGROUND During the 19th and early 20th centuries, large waves of international immigrants, often heterogeneous in terms of age and sex structure, arrived in the United States. Within a relatively short time, many of these immigrants were assimilated. While prior studies have identified an impact of the marriage squeeze on intermarriage, the role of gender is less known. METHODS We use data from the 1930 census to examine the role played by variation in the sex ratios of the six largest immigrant groups at the beginning of the 20th century on marital outcomes by sex. RESULTS Our analyses show that the probability of marrying outside one’s ethnic group in this period is strongly tied to local ethnic sex ratios. Marital outcomes are affected for both sexes, but sex ratios are found to be more influential on males marrying out of their ethnic group. While a surplus of one’s own sex increases the probability of exogamy for males, it is likely to increase the probability of being single for females.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced relatively high population growth, which raises concerns about the potential contribution of large young cohorts, termed ‘youth bulges’, to unrest. Youth bulges, under the right circumstances, can expand productivity and boost economic growth, but they have also been found to enable civil war, corruption, and democracy collapse, especially where resources are scarce. OBJECTIVE This paper considers youth bulges characterised by high proportions of rural‒urban migrants and examines their effects on the likelihood of social conflict in urban sub-Saharan Africa between 1990 and 2013. METHODS United Nations data on urban and rural populations by age and sex is combined with the Social Conflict Analysis Database to create a cross-section time series dataset. Negative binomial models are used to examine the relationship between youth bulges and conflict using country level fixed effects. RESULTS The study finds that a migrant-based youth bulge does not increase the likelihood of urban social conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, female youth bulges, often neglected when studying conflict, are found to increase the likelihood of conflict. CONCLUSIONS The overall disassociation between young rural‒urban migrants and social conflict is encouraging. All the same, women were found to play a role in conflict, and women should therefore be considered in future studies.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Subjective survival probabilities are affected by individual-specific judgment and vary by factors known to differentiate actual mortality. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to evaluate whether sociodemographic characteristics, physical and mental health, and lifestyle are incorporated into subjective survival probabilities of Europeans aged 50 or higher. METHODS We use data from Wave 6 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and period life tables from the Human Mortality Database (HMD). For the statistical analysis we employ multinomial logistic regression models. RESULTS Our results show that common factors drive the self-reported subjective survival probabilities. Certain factors affecting actual mortality are considered when forming subjective survival probabilities: income, education, poor physical and mental health, activities of daily living (ADLs), smoking, physical activity, diet, quality of life, and number of children. Other factors are not considered in a manner consistent with actual mortality patterns: age, gender, marital status, and body weight. The findings regarding cognitive function are inconclusive; whereas some aspects seem to be integrated in subjective survival probabilities (e.g., memory or self-writing skills), others are not (e.g., numeracy or orientation in time).
Abstract: BACKGROUND A body of evidence suggests that vaccines support the development of the immune system and also improve overall health. OBJECTIVE To study the effect of the complete basic vaccination schedule (Bacille Calmette-Guérin, i.e., BCG; measles; polio 3; and Diphtheria, Tetanus toxoids, and Pertussis, i.e., DTP3) on nutritional status of children under 2 years of age. METHODS Recent DHS data from 16 countries conducted after 2013 were used. After a bivariate descriptive analysis, a logistic regression analysis was conducted to predict the likelihood of underweight, stunting, and wasting by immunization status. A combined odds ratio was computed and adjusted for background variables. RESULTS A significantly higher prevalence of underweight was found among children with incomplete vaccination schedules in seven countries. Similarly, wasting and stunting were frequently observed in under-vaccinated children in four countries. Moreover, logistic regression adjusted for background variables revealed a relation between incomplete vaccination and underweight in Angola, Chad, and Guatemala (95% CI lower bound> 1). Combining data of all countries, underweight (adjusted Odds Ratio, aOR 1.21, 95% CI 1.11‒1.31), wasting (aOR 1.18, 95% CI 1.05‒1.33), and stunting (aOR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00‒1.14) were associated with poor vaccination status. The overall effect was consistent with both sexes except the results for wasting for females and stunting for males, though insignificant.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Statistics Canada ceased publishing vital statistics on marriage and divorce in 2008, leaving a knowledge gap in these important demographic indicators. OBJECTIVE This paper makes the methodological contribution of examining how best to operationalize divorce with tax data, and the substantive contribution of presenting recent trends in divorce in Canada. METHODS We examine trends in divorce using both vital statistics and administrative tax data and compare them during the period for which they are available (through 2008). Then, using administrative tax data, we update trends in divorce through 2016. We examine overall, age-specific, and age-standardized trends in divorce. RESULTS We document “gray divorce” from the 1990s through 2008 and then flat divorce rates for older adults and a continued decline in divorce for younger adults through 2016. CONCLUSIONS Tax data show a recent decline in divorce trends in Canada. However, there are important limitations to estimating divorce with tax data. We discuss data gaps and make suggestions for more accurate measures of union dissolution.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the most serious health issues and the leading cause of death in Brazil, accounting for 30% of all deaths. Previous research shows that CVD mortality rates are not uniformly distributed across Brazil and have been changing over time. There is also previous evidence from other countries that economic development and improvements in the educational level have important effects in reducing CVD mortality. OBJECTIVE The goal of this paper is to contribute to this discussion by investigating the relation between CVD mortality and economic development over time and space, measured by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, in Brazilian micro-regions from 2001 to 2015. METHODS We used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM-DATASUS) from 2001 to 2015. GDP data by micro-region were extracted from the Sistema IBGE de Recuperação Automática (SIDRA). Bivariate maps were used to establish the relationship between CVD mortality and GDP per capita. RESULTS The results show that GDP per capita increased in all micro-regions between 2001 and 2015. The results also suggest a rapid decline in CVD mortality in the South and Southeast micro-regions and a slower decline in the Central-West region. Meanwhile, the less developed North and Northeast regions showed an increase in CVD mortality over time. This spatial heterogeneity over the examined period appears to be associated with access to proper healthcare and strongly related to socioeconomic factors. In addition, males have higher mortality rates than females in approximately 72% of micro-regions.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Because living arrangements have many implications for the well-being of older adults, knowledge regarding typical age-related developmental changes in living arrangements is of a major concern for public health policymakers, particularly in low- and middle-income countries dealing with growing aging populations. However, the much-needed empirical analysis of living arrangement dynamics is hindered by a lack of proper data. OBJECTIVE To exploit often-available short-term longitudinal data in the study of long-term phenomena, in this paper we accelerate the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) panel as a means to explore, over a broad age span, the household dynamics of Mexican older adults. METHODS Instead of working with a priori definitions of different household structures when analyzing transitions between them, we introduce a novel approach that estimates latent classes of developmental trends in the household composition of older people as they age. RESULTS We show how accelerated longitudinal designs, coupled with latent class analysis, can offer new insights into living arrangement dynamics. Our findings suggest that in Mexico the typical living arrangements at 50 years old serve as an important predictor of future living arrangements, and that typical living-arrangement trajectories are strongly gendered in Mexico. This new approach may prove to be indispensible when determining the social support needed by high-risk population groups and as a means to better anticipate the necessary financial resources to do so.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Conventional studies of intergenerational social reproduction are based on a retrospective design, sampling adults and linking their status to that of their parents. This approach yields conditional estimates of intergenerational relationships. Recent studies have taken a prospective approach, following a birth cohort forward to examine how it is socially reproduced. This permits the estimation of relationships of social reproduction that do not condition on the existence of at least one child. OBJECTIVE We examine whether the relationship between conditional and unconditional estimates found for the United States and Great Britain also holds for a diverse range of European countries. METHODS We examine educational reproduction among men and women born 1930–1950 in 12 countries using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and compare unconditional and conditional estimates. RESULTS We find striking similarities in the relationship between unconditional and conditional estimates throughout Europe. Among women, the difference between conditional and unconditional estimates generally increased with education. Women with more education were less likely to reproduce themselves educationally because they were less likely to marry. The educational gradient, in terms of the probability of having a child who attained a tertiary degree, was more pronounced in the South and East of Europe than in the North and West. CONCLUSIONS The gap between conditional and unconditional estimates indicates that the more common retrospective approach tends to overstate the extent of educational reproduction.
Abstract: OBJECTIVE Intergenerational coresidence is usually assumed to be beneficial to the subjective well-being of the Chinese elderly, but this proposition is not well supported in empirical studies. This study addresses this puzzle by incorporating older adults’ living arrangement preference and their contact with noncoresidential children into the investigation. METHODS We used data from four waves of the CLHLS in 2005–2014 and applied fixed-effects models to examine the effect of intergenerational coresidence on Chinese elderly’s subjective well-being and how this effect was moderated by their living arrangement preference and contact with noncoresidential children. RESULTS Intergenerational coresidence declined steadily in 2005–2014, but the concordance between individual’s actual and preferred living arrangement remained very high, and most older adults living independently maintained frequent contact with their children. Intergenerational coresidence had no effect on older adults’ subjective well-being. However, the match between an individual’s actual and preferred living arrangements and the frequent contact between parents and their noncoresidential children were important to the subjective well-being of Chinese elderly. CONCLUSIONS Because the actual living arrangement of most of the Chinese elderly accorded with their preferred living arrangement and most older adults living independently maintained frequent contact with their children, problems resulting from the decline of intergenerational coresidence were limited.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Most previous research on intergenerational impacts on childbearing behaviors has overlooked the interrelation between having siblings and the availability of childcare assistance provided by grandparents. OBJECTIVE This study examines how the siblings of young couples dilute the resources of grandparental childcare assistance and thus influence a mother’s plans to have a second child in urban China. METHODS We use data from the survey on Fertility Decision-Making Processes in Chinese Families conducted in 2016 and focus on the subsample of mothers who have only one child and live in urban areas. RESULTS The husband’s parents are less likely to take care of grandchildren if the husband has male siblings, while the probability will be higher if the wife has male siblings. The chance of receiving childcare support from the wife’s parents is also associated with the sibship status of both wife and husband. The results suggest that the decision regarding primary childcare providers might be made collectively within extended families. Under the two-child policy, childcare support from parents or in-laws in raising the first child increases the probability of a mother planning a second child. Furthermore, the positive effect of childcare support from the husband’s parents is lessened if the husband has siblings.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Despite much discussion on the fertility changes in sub-Saharan Africa, the countries of the Sahel have received only limited attention. Their comparatively high and stable fertility levels contributed them being labeled as an exception in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVE This study investigates whether countries of the Sahel are an exception in the crosscontinental trend of increasing birth intervals since the 1970s in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS Using birth history data, the levels and trends in parity progression ratios and birth intervals are reconstructed for four decades in four countries of the Sahel (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger). RESULTS In all four countries, parity progression ratios have changed little, but births have been occurring later and the age at which an average woman is bearing her seventh child has increased. CONCLUSIONS While the lengthening of birth intervals has been associated with lower fertility in many analyses, this study shows that a similar process is found in countries with high and stable total fertility rates.
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