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Open Access journal
ISSN (Online) 1435-9871
Published by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research [1 journal]
- The long-term determinants of marital fertility in the developed world
(19th and 20th centuries): The role of welfare policies (by Jesús J.
Demographic transition theory was shattered dramatically as a result of the research carried out in the course of the Princeton European Fertility Project. There is still no consensus among demographers as to the causes underlying the fertility transition.
We set out to test the explanatory capacity of certain variables which have traditionally been used to interpret the historical decline in fertility (mortality, level of education, economic development, urbanization) as well as the role played by the rise of the welfare state.
We collected information on different kinds of socioeconomic variables in 25 developed countries over a very long period of time. We carried out panel cointegrating regressions and country panel fixed and time effects generalized least squares.
We show that the decline in mortality, the increase in educational level, and economic factors all played a leading role in the historical decline in fertility. We found that the present welfare system places a remarkable burden on those who decide to have a family.
A new kind of public social transfer model needs to be designed which will minimize the damaging consequences that our current welfare states have had with regard to fertility.
PubDate: Fri, 21 Apr 2017 00:00:00
- Childbearing among first- and second-generation Russians in Estonia
against the background of the sending and host countries (by Allan Puur,
Leen Rahnu, Liili Abuladze, Luule Sakkeus, Sergei Zakharov)
An expanding literature documents the childbearing patterns of migrants and their descendants in contemporary Europe. The existing evidence pertains mainly to the northern, western, and southern regions of the continent, while less is known about the fertility of migrants who have moved between the countries of Eastern Europe.
The aim of this study is to examine the fertility patterns of first- and second-generation Russians in Estonia, relative to the sending and host populations.
The study draws on the Estonian and Russian Generations and Gender Surveys. Proportional hazards models are estimated for the transitions to first, second, and third births.
Russian migrants in Estonia exhibit greater similarity to the sending population, with a lower propensity for having a second and third birth than the host population. This pattern extends to the descendants of migrants. However, mixed Estonian-Russian parentage, enrolment in Estonian-language schools, and residence among the host population are associated with the convergence of Russians’ childbearing behaviour with the host-country patterns. The findings support the cultural maintenance and adaptation perspectives; selectivity was found to be less important.
PubDate: Thu, 13 Apr 2017 00:00:00
- Changes in economic activity: The role of age and education (by Elke
Loichinger, Alexia Prskawetz)
Between 2000 and 2010, the labor force participation (LFP) of European men stayed mostly constant, whereas the participation of women continued to increase. Participation rates of people close to normal retirement ages rose almost universally. At the same time, the education composition shifted toward higher levels of educational attainment and education-specific differentials in economic activity persisted.
The aim of the paper is to understand the extent to which developments of LFP rates between 2000 and 2010 in selected European countries can be explained by age-specific and education-specific changes in participation rates, as compared to changes in populations’ structural composition by age and education.
We apply a decomposition methodology that allows us to disentangle changes in age- and education-specific LFP rates from changes in the age and educational structure of the population.
Our results show that LFP rates of adult women would have increased even more, had it not been for the downward pressure from the shift in the age composition toward older age groups with relatively lower levels of participation. This downward pressure also depressed male participation. The increase in participation among older people is mainly explained by participation increases among those with nontertiary education and is reinforced by a general shift toward higher levels of educational attainment.
PubDate: Wed, 12 Apr 2017 00:00:00
- Depressed fertility among descendants of immigrants in Sweden (by Gunnar
Andersson, Lotta Persson, Ognjen Obućina)
Previous research shows evidence of an interrelation between family formation and the migration of immigrants in Europe. Less research has been conducted on the fertility and family behavior of the descendants of immigrants.
Our study provides analyses of the childbearing behavior of daughters of immigrants in Sweden. The context is that of a country with near-replacement-level fertility and social policies oriented towards social equality.
The study is based on register data covering 1998-2012, which allows for highly detailed analyses of the childbearing behavior of 20 country origin groups of second-generation women. By means of event history techniques, we analyze the transition to any first, second, and third births.
Our analyses show that most groups of descendants of immigrants have lower fertility than those with a full Swedish background. The risk of having a first child is particularly depressed, and the risk of having a second child is also lower for daughters of immigrants than for women with two Swedish-born parents. In contrast, many groups of immigrant-descendant two-child mothers display elevated third-birth risks.
Our findings demonstrate the necessity to account for parity-specific differences in fertility when studying the fertility of descendants of migrants.
PubDate: Tue, 11 Apr 2017 00:00:00
- How kinship systems and welfare regimes shape leaving home: A comparative
study of the United States, Germany, Taiwan, and China (by Bernhard Nauck,
Nicolai Gröpler, Chin-Chun Yi)
This paper aims to explain societal differences in the event of leaving the parental home as part of the transition to adulthood, in the United States, Germany, China, and Taiwan. It proposes bridge hypotheses between societal characteristics such as kinship system and welfare regime and home-leaving behavior, and tests them with nationally representative panel studies.
Four panel studies (NLSY97 for the USA; PAIRFAM for Germany; CFPS for China; TYP for Taiwan) were harmonized for similar cohorts, with an age span of 15 to 30 years. Testing was based on age-specific tabulations of household composition and separate discrete-time event history models.
The prevalence of home-leaving is highest in the United States, followed by Germany, China, and then Taiwan. Timing is earlier in the United States than in Germany, and earlier in China than in Taiwan. Gender-specific coincidence of home-leaving with entry into higher education, the work force, cohabitation, and marriage can be conclusively related to differences in kinship system and welfare regime, and regional opportunity disparities.
PubDate: Thu, 06 Apr 2017 00:00:00
- The population-level impact of public-sector antiretroviral therapy
rollout on adult mortality in rural Malawi (by Collin Payne, Hans-Peter
Recent evidence from health and demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) has shown that increasing access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is reducing mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, due to limited vital statistics registration in many of the countries most affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, there is limited evidence of the magnitude of ART’s effect outside of specific HDSS sites. This paper leverages longitudinal household/family roster data from the Malawi Longitudinal Survey of Families and Health (MLSFH) to estimate the effect of ART availability in public clinics on population-level mortality based on a geographically dispersed sample of individuals in rural Malawi.
We seek to provide evidence on the population-level magnitude of the ART-associated mortality decline in rural Malawi and confirm that this population is experiencing similar declines in mortality as those seen in HDSS sites.
We analyze longitudinal household/family-roster data from four waves of the MLSFH to estimate mortality change after the introduction of ART to study areas. We analyze life expectancy using the Kaplan–Meier estimator and examine how the mortality hazard changed over time by individual characteristics with Cox regression.
In the four years following rollout of ART, life expectancy at age 15 increased by 3.1 years (95% CI 1.1, 5.1), and median length of life rose by over ten years.
PubDate: Wed, 05 Apr 2017 00:00:00
- Unequal lands: Soil type, nutrition, and child mortality in southern
Sweden, 1850-1914 (by Finn Hedefalk, Luciana Quaranta, Tommy Bengtsson)
Child mortality differed greatly within rural regions in Europe before and during the mortality transition. Little is known about the role of nutrition in such geographic differences, and about the factors affecting the nutritional status and hence the disease outcomes.
Focusing on nutrition, we analyse the effects of soil type, used as an indicator of the farm-level agricultural productivity and hence of nutritional status, on mortality of children aged 1–15 living in five rural parishes in southern Sweden, 1850–1914.
Using longitudinal demographic data combined with unique geographic microdata on residential histories, the effect of soil type on mortality risks are analysed considering as outcome all-cause mortality and mortality from nonairborne and airborne infectious diseases.
Soil type primarily affected the mortality of farmers’ children, but not labourers’ children. Particularly, farmers’ children residing in areas with very high proportions of clayey till (75–100% coverage) experienced lower risks of dying compared to children residing in areas with other soil types such as clay and sandy soils.
Certain soil types seem to have influenced agricultural productivity, which in turn affected the nutrition of farmers’ children and thus their likelihood of dying. The results indicate the relatively important role of nutrition as a mortality predictor for these children.
PubDate: Tue, 04 Apr 2017 00:00:00
- Examining the influence of major life events as drivers of residential
mobility and neighbourhood transitions (by Timothy Morris)
Residential mobility and internal migration have long been key foci of research across a range of disciplines. However, the analytical strategies adopted in many studies are unable to unpick the drivers of mobility in sufficient detail because of two issues prevalent within the literature: a lack of detailed information on the individual context of people’s lives and a failure to apply longitudinal methods.
Using detailed data from a UK birth cohort study, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), and a multilevel recurrent-event history analysis approach, this paper overcomes these two major limitations and presents a number of findings.
Most life events increase the likelihood of moving, even though there is little evidence that they precede upwards or downwards mobility into more or less deprived neighbourhoods. The findings also suggest that families living in poor homes and neighbourhoods are more likely to be stuck in place following certain negative life events than those in good environments.
While broad demographic and socioeconomic characteristics reliably account for mobility patterns, the occurrence of life events and a person’s attitudes towards their living environment are necessary for a full understanding of mobility patterns. Future studies should strive to account for such detailed data.
PubDate: Thu, 30 Mar 2017 00:00:00
- Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach (by Anthony
Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation.
We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory.
Extreme value distributions are ﬁt to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations.
Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justiﬁed way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain probability estimates of best-practice life expectancy levels or make projections about future maximum life expectancy.
Our ﬁndings may be useful for policymakers and insurance/pension analysts who would like to obtain estimates and probabilities of future maximum life expectancies.
PubDate: Wed, 29 Mar 2017 00:00:00
- The decline of infant and child mortality among Spanish Gitanos or Calé
(1871−2005): A microdemographic study in Andalusia (by Juan F. Gamella,
Elisa Martín Carrasco-Muñoz)
Most Romani groups in Europe have experienced a decline in childhood mortality during recent decades. These crucial transformations are rarely addressed in research or public policy.
This paper analyzes the timing and structure of the decline of childhood mortality among the Gitano people of Spain.
The paper is based on the family and genealogy reconstitution of the Gitano population of 22 contiguous localities in Southern Spain. Registry data from over 19,100 people and 3,501 reconstituted families was included in a dense genealogical grid ranging over 150 years. From this database we produced annual time series of infant and child mortality and of the registered causes of death from 1871 to 2005.
The analyzed data shows a rapid decline in infant and child mortality from about 1949 to 1970. The onset of the definitive decline occurred in the late 1940s and early 1950s. Child mortality was higher in the pre-transitional period and started to decline earlier, although it took longer to converge with majority rates. The mortality transition in the Gitano minority paralleled that of the dominant majority, but with important delays and higher mortality rates. The causes of death show the deprivation suffered by Gitano people.
The childhood mortality decline facilitated the most important changes experienced recently by the Gitano minority, including its fertility transition and the transformation of Gitanos’ gender and family systems.
PubDate: Tue, 28 Mar 2017 00:00:00
- Household production and consumption over the life cycle: National Time
Transfer Accounts in 14 European countries (by Lili Vargha, Róbert Iván
Gál, Michelle O. Crosby-Nagy)
While the importance of unpaid household labour is recognised in total economic output, little is known about the demographics of household production and consumption.
Our goal is to give a comprehensive estimation on the value of household production and its consumption by age and gender and analyse nonmarket economic transfers in 14 European countries based on publicly available harmonised data.
We introduce a novel imputation method of harmonised European time use (HETUS) data to the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) in order to assign time spent on home production to consumers in households and estimate time transfers. Moreover, monetary values are attributed to household production activities using data on earnings from the Structure of Earnings Survey (SES).
We show that the nonmarket economic life cycle of men differs from that of women. The gender gap in household production is not evenly distributed over the life cycle. Women of working age contribute the most in net terms, while the main beneficiaries of household goods and services are children and to a lesser extent adult men. These patterns are similar across countries, with variations in the gender- and age-specific levels of home production and consumption.
In Europe, in the national economy, intergenerational flows are important in sustaining both childhood and old age. In contrast, in the household economy, intergenerational transfers flow mostly towards children.
PubDate: Thu, 23 Mar 2017 00:00:00