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Similar Journals
 Probability in the Engineering and Informational SciencesJournal Prestige (SJR): 0.406 Citation Impact (citeScore): 1Number of Followers: 1      Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles) ISSN (Print) 0269-9648 - ISSN (Online) 1469-8951 Published by Cambridge University Press  [386 journals]
• PES volume 34 issue 1 Cover and Front matter
• PubDate: 2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z
DOI: 10.1017/S0269964820000029
Issue No: Vol. 34, No. 1 (2020)

• PES volume 34 issue 1 Cover and Back matter
• PubDate: 2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z
DOI: 10.1017/S0269964820000030
Issue No: Vol. 34, No. 1 (2020)

• APPLICATIONS OF LIKELIHOOD RATIO ORDER IN BAYESIAN INFERENCES
• Authors: Kai Huang; Jie Mi
Pages: 1 - 13
Abstract: The present paper studies the likelihood ratio order of posterior distributions of parameter when the same order exists between the corresponding prior of the parameter, or when the observed values of the sufficient statistic for the parameter differ. The established likelihood order allows one to compare the Bayesian estimators associated with many common and general error loss functions analytically. It can also enable one to compare the Bayes factor in hypothesis testing without using numerical computation. Moreover, using the likelihood ratio (LR) order of the posterior distributions can yield the LR order between marginal predictive distributions, and posterior predictive distributions.
PubDate: 2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z
DOI: 10.1017/S026996481800027X
Issue No: Vol. 34, No. 1 (2020)

• MODELING EXPERIMENTAL DATA WITH POLYNOMIALS CHAOS
• Authors: Emeline Gayrard; Cédric Chauvière, Hacène Djellout, Pierre Bonnet
Pages: 14 - 26
Abstract: Given a raw data sample, the purpose of this paper is to design a numerical procedure to model this sample under the form of polynomial chaos expansion. The coefficients of the polynomial are computed as the solution to a constrained optimization problem. The procedure is first validated on samples coming from a known distribution and it is then applied to raw experimental data of unknown distribution. Numerical experiments show that only five coefficients of the Chaos expansions are required to get an accurate representation of a sample.
PubDate: 2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z
DOI: 10.1017/S026996481800030X
Issue No: Vol. 34, No. 1 (2020)

• A NEW STOPPING PROBLEM AND THE CRITICAL EXERCISE PRICE FOR AMERICAN
FRACTIONAL LOOKBACK OPTION IN A SPECIAL MIXED JUMP-DIFFUSION MODEL
• Authors: Zhaoqiang Yang
Pages: 27 - 52
Abstract: A new stopping problem and the critical exercise price of American fractional lookback option are developed in the case where the stock price follows a special mixed jump diffusion fractional Brownian motion. By using Itô formula and Wick-Itô-Skorohod integral a new market pricing model is built, and the fundamental solutions of stochastic parabolic partial differential equations are deduced under the condition of Merton assumptions. With an optimal stopping problem and the exercise boundary, the explicit integral representation of early exercise premium and the critical exercise price are also derived. Numerical simulation illustrates the asymptotic behavior of this critical boundary.
PubDate: 2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z
DOI: 10.1017/S0269964818000311
Issue No: Vol. 34, No. 1 (2020)

• SOME NEW BOUNDS AND APPROXIMATIONS ON TAIL PROBABILITIES OF THE POISSON
AND OTHER DISCRETE DISTRIBUTIONS
• Authors: Steven G. From; Andrew W. Swift
Pages: 53 - 71
Abstract: In this paper, we discuss new bounds and approximations for tail probabilities of certain discrete distributions. Several different methods are used to obtain bounds and/or approximations. Excellent upper and lower bounds are obtained for the Poisson distribution. Excellent approximations (and not bounds necessarily) are also obtained for other discrete distributions. Numerical comparisons made to previously proposed methods demonstrate that the new bounds and/or approximations compare very favorably. Some conjectures are made.
PubDate: 2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z
DOI: 10.1017/S0269964818000347
Issue No: Vol. 34, No. 1 (2020)

• ACTIVE REDUNDANCY ALLOCATION FOR COHERENT SYSTEMS WITH INDEPENDENT AND
HETEROGENEOUS COMPONENTS
• Authors: Rui Fang; Xiaohu Li
Pages: 72 - 91
Abstract: This paper studies the allocation of active redundancies to coherent systems on the context that the base and redundancy components have mutual independent lifetimes. For systems with two symmetric components and systems with one component's minimal cut sets (minimal path sets) covering those of another, we derive sufficient conditions to compare the resultant system lifetimes. Some numerical examples are also presented to illustrate the theoretical results.
PubDate: 2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z
DOI: 10.1017/S0269964818000359
Issue No: Vol. 34, No. 1 (2020)

• PROPERTIES FOR GENERALIZED CUMULATIVE PAST MEASURES OF INFORMATION
• Authors: Camilla Calì; Maria Longobardi, Jorge Navarro
Pages: 92 - 111
Abstract: The Shannon entropy based on the probability density function is a key information measure with applications in different areas. Some alternative information measures have been proposed in the literature. Two relevant ones are the cumulative residual entropy (based on the survival function) and the cumulative past entropy (based on the distribution function). Recently, some extensions of these measures have been proposed. Here, we obtain some properties for the generalized cumulative past entropy. In particular, we prove that it determines the underlying distribution. We also study this measure in coherent systems and a closely related generalized past cumulative Kerridge inaccuracy measure.
PubDate: 2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z
DOI: 10.1017/S0269964818000360
Issue No: Vol. 34, No. 1 (2020)

• APPROXIMATION OF THE TAIL PROBABILITIES FOR BIDIMENSIONAL RANDOMLY
WEIGHTED SUMS WITH DEPENDENT COMPONENTS
• Authors: Xinmei Shen; Mingyue Ge, Ke-Ang Fu
Pages: 112 - 130
Abstract: Let $\left\{ {{\bi X}_k = {(X_{1,k},X_{2,k})}^{\top}, k \ge 1} \right\}$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random vectors whose components are allowed to be generally dependent with marginal distributions being from the class of extended regular variation, and let $\left\{ {{\brTheta} _k = {(\Theta _{1,k},\Theta _{2,k})}^{\top}, k \ge 1} \right\}$ be a sequence of nonnegative random vectors that is independent of $\left\{ {{\bi X}_k, k \ge 1} \right\}$ . Under several mild assumptions, some simple asymptotic formulae of the tail probabilities for the bidimensional randomly weighted sums $\left( {\sum\nolimits_{k = 1}^n {\Theta _{1,k}} X_{1,k},\sum\nolimits_{k = 1}^n {\Theta _{2,k}} X_{2,k}} \right)^{\rm \top }$ and their maxima $({{\max} _{1 \le i \le n}}\sum\nolimits_{k = 1}^i {\Theta _{1,k}} X_{1,k},{{\max} _{1 \le i \le n}}\sum\nolimits_{k = 1}^i {\Theta _{2,k}} X_{2,k})^{\rm \top }$ are established. Moreover, uniformity of the estimate can be achieved under some technical moment conditions on $\left\{ {{\brTheta} _k, k \ge 1} \right\}$ . Direct applications of the results to risk analysis are proposed, with two types of ruin probability for a discrete-time bidimensional risk model being evaluated.
PubDate: 2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z
DOI: 10.1017/S0269964818000414
Issue No: Vol. 34, No. 1 (2020)

• GI|GI|1+TANDEM+QUEUE1&rft.title=Probability+in+the+Engineering+and+Informational+Sciences&rft.issn=0269-9648&rft.date=2020&rft.volume=34&rft.spage=131&rft.epage=156&rft.aulast=Buijsrogge&rft.aufirst=Anne&rft.au=Anne+Buijsrogge&rft.au=Pieter-Tjerk+de+Boer,+Werner+R.W.+Scheinhardt&rft_id=info:doi/10.1017/S0269964818000426">ON STATE-INDEPENDENT IMPORTANCE SAMPLING FOR THE GI|GI|1 TANDEM QUEUE1
• Authors: Anne Buijsrogge; Pieter-Tjerk de Boer, Werner R.W. Scheinhardt
Pages: 131 - 156
Abstract: In this paper, we consider a d-node GI|GI|1 tandem queue with i.i.d. inter-arrival process and service processes that are independent of each other. Our main interest is to estimate the probability to reach a high level N in a busy cycle of the system using simulation. As crude simulation does not give a sufficient precision in reasonable time, we use importance sampling. We introduce a method to find a state-independent change of measure and we show that this is equivalent to a change of measure that was earlier, but implicitly, described by Parekh and Walrand [8]. We also show that this change of measure is the only exponential state-independent change of measure that may result in an asymptotically efficient estimator. Lastly, we provide necessary conditions for this state-independent change of measure to give an asymptotically efficient estimator.
PubDate: 2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z
DOI: 10.1017/S0269964818000426
Issue No: Vol. 34, No. 1 (2020)

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