Genomics and environmental modelling are integrated to assess past and future changes in Arctic charr populations in response to changing climate. Southern population vulnerability suggests climate change may lead to northward shifts and the loss of important life-history variation.Nature Climate Change, Published online: 2021-01-11; doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00959-72021-01-11 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00959-7
The Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are modes of Northern Hemisphere climate variability with high temporal and spatial correlation. With strong warming, climate models suggest their link breaks down due to a divergent response to the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and stratosphere.Nature Climate Change, Published online: 2021-01-11; doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00966-82021-01-11 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00966-8
Tibetan Plateau runoff projections are uncertain due to precipitation change uncertainty in climate models. Historical precipitation–circulation relationships constrain future wet-season precipitation and runoff change, suggesting worsening water scarcity for the Indus and Ganges river basins.Nature Climate Change, Published online: 2021-01-11; doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00974-82021-01-11 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00974-8
Projections of terrestrial water storage (TWS)—the sum of all continental water—are key to water resource and drought estimates. A hydrological model ensemble predicts climate warming will more than double the land area and population exposed to extreme TWS drought by the late twenty-first century.Nature Climate Change, Published online: 2021-01-11; doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w2021-01-11 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w
Renewable energy relies on climate fields that will be altered by warming, and the impacts on the energy system are estimated for eight renewable energy technologies. Bioenergy sees the largest global increases but high uncertainty; other types see small global change but robust local trends.Nature Climate Change, Published online: 2021-01-11; doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00949-92021-01-11 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00949-9
Reduced complexity climate models are useful tools with practical policy applications, yet evaluation of their performance and application is nascent. We call for stakeholder-driven development and assessment to address user needs, including provision of open-source code and guidance to inform model selection and application.Nature Climate Change, Published online: 2021-01-04; doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00973-92021-01-04 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00973-9
Earth’s energy budget depends on the global sea surface temperature pattern, which is currently counteracting warming more strongly than expected in the future. Including this pattern effect in projections causes committed warming with present-day forcing to exceed the Paris goals, implying less leeway than anticipated.Nature Climate Change, Published online: 2021-01-04; doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x2021-01-04 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x