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SOCIAL SCIENCES (686 journals)                  1 2 3 4     

Showing 1 - 136 of 136 Journals sorted alphabetically
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Bandung : Journal of the Global South     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
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Basic and Applied Social Psychology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 36)
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Carl Beck Papers in Russian and East European Studies     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 5)
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Distinktion : Scandinavian Journal of Social Theory     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
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Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward terrorism and genocide     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
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Families, Relationships and Societies     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 7)

        1 2 3 4     

Journal Cover Electoral Studies
  [SJR: 1.371]   [H-I: 44]   [28 followers]  Follow
   Hybrid Journal Hybrid journal (It can contain Open Access articles)
   ISSN (Print) 0261-3794
   Published by Elsevier Homepage  [3043 journals]
  • The conditional duty to vote in elections
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 13 October 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Nicole Goodman
      This article presents an alternate dimension of the civic duty to vote. Despite its explanatory power, the civic duty to vote has been operationalized one-dimensionally, as the importance associated with the act of voting per se. Few scholars have revisited the survey measurement of civic duty despite important changes in values, attitudes, and citizenship norms. The article investigates an alternate dimension of duty and evaluates its utility using a national sample of Canadians. Results find support for a dimension termed conditional duty, which represents a belief in 'contingent participation'.

      PubDate: 2017-10-18T07:30:59Z
  • Facing up to the facts: What causes economic perceptions'
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 6 October 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Catherine E. De Vries, Sara B. Hobolt, James Tilley
      The link between individual perceptions of the economy and vote choice is fundamental to electoral accountability. Yet, while it is well-established that economic perceptions are correlated with voting behaviour, it is unclear whether these perceptions are rooted in the real economy or whether they simply reflect voters’ partisan biases. This article uses time-series data, survey data and unique experimental evidence to shed new light on how British voters update their economic perceptions in response to economic change. Our findings demonstrate that while partisanship influences levels of economic optimism, people respond to information about real economic changes by adjusting their economic perceptions.

      PubDate: 2017-10-11T22:00:02Z
  • The volatility of volatility: Measuring change in party vote shares
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 25 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Fernando Casal Bértoa, Kevin Deegan-Krause, Tim Haughton
      Volatility is a widely used term in political science, but even the most widely used measure of volatility, Pedersen's index, can mask as much as it reveals. His simple and elegant calculation has become part of the political science toolbox, but scholars employing this tool have tended to produce distinctly different results thanks to a series of decisions about measurement and classification. Using examples from Central Europe the critical role of decisions related to party continuity and threshold of inclusion are identified. The article not only unpacks the underlying questions addressed by different uses of Pedersen's index, but offers standards for choosing particular methods over others and outlines steps that should be followed in creating a more accurate measure of volatility.

      PubDate: 2017-09-25T20:36:05Z
  • Ethnicity and electoral fraud in Britain
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 23 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Noah Carl
      Several reports have highlighted that, within Britain, allegations of electoral fraud tend to be more common in areas with large Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities. However, the extent of this association has not yet been quantified. Using data at the local authority level, this paper shows that percentage Pakistani and Bangladeshi (logged) is a robust predictor of two measures of electoral fraud allegations: one based on designations by the Electoral Commission, and one based on police enquiries. Indeed, the association persists after controlling for other minority shares, demographic characteristics, socio-economic deprivation, and anti-immigration attitudes. I interpret this finding with reference to the growing literature on consanguinity (cousin marriage) and corruption. Rates of cousin marriage tend to be high in countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, which may have fostered norms of nepotism and in-group favoritism that persist over time. To bolster my interpretation, I use individual level survey data to show that, within Europe, immigrants from countries with high rates of cousin marriage are more likely to say that family should be one's main priority in life, and are less likely to say it is wrong for a public official to request a bribe.

      PubDate: 2017-09-25T20:36:05Z
  • It's the emotions, Stupid!Anger about the economic crisis, low political
           efficacy, and support for populist parties
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 23 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Gabriele Magni
      This study examines the impact of anger about the economic crisis on electoral participation and voting behavior. Previous work on emotions has consistently underlined the mobilization potential of anger. The economic crisis has generated widespread anger, but political disengagement, rather than mobilization, and growing support for populist parties have emerged as the dominant effects. This is because the impact of anger about the crisis is moderated by political efficacy. Among citizens with low efficacy, anger decreased electoral participation and fueled support for populist parties. In contrast, among citizens with high efficacy, anger promoted participation and increased support for mainstream opposition parties. I use the 2005–2010 British election panel, which allows me to address endogeneity concerns, control for pre-crisis engagement and other negative emotions, and perform causal mediation analysis. This work contributes to the study of emotions and voting behavior; support for populist parties; and the political consequences of the crisis.

      PubDate: 2017-09-25T20:36:05Z
  • When heuristics go bad: Citizens' misevaluations of campaign pledge
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 23 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): François Pétry, Dominic Duval
      We use data from a large survey of Quebec citizens to clarify under what conditions the use of heuristic shortcuts increases or decreases the accuracy of citizens' evaluations of specific pledge fulfilment. In line with the rational public hypothesis, we find that citizens' evaluations often conform to the actual pledge fulfilment performance of the government. However, consistent with the “bad heuristics” and “motivated reasoning” hypotheses, we find that many citizens’ evaluations are biased. Some stereotypes induce citizens to evaluate pledges positively irrespective of actual performance, misleading them into making inaccurate evaluations of pledges that are actually unfulfilled. Other stereotypes prompt citizens to evaluate pledges negatively irrespective of actual performance, misleading them into making inaccurate evaluations of pledges that are actually fulfilled. Although political knowledge increases the accuracy of evaluation of fulfilled pledges, it fails to increase the accuracy of evaluations of unfulfilled pledges.

      PubDate: 2017-09-25T20:36:05Z
  • Appealing to the ‘losers’' The electorates of left-wing and
           right-wing Eurosceptic parties compared, 1989–2014
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 23 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Erika J. van Elsas

      PubDate: 2017-09-25T20:36:05Z
  • Exit to the right' Comparing far right voters and abstainers in
           Western Europe
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 21 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Trevor J. Allen
      This article compares far right voters in Western Europe with citizens who abstain from electoral participation. Political dissatisfaction is thought to motivate both forms of political behavior. Low levels of formal education are also significantly predictive of both abstention and far right support. This study implements a multilevel multinomial logistic regression comparing nonvoters, far right voters, and voters for other parties from 2002 to 2012. The results suggest that common predictors distinguishing far right voters, such as education and political distrust, do not distinguish far right voters from abstainers. However, measures of social integration, including union membership, self-reported social activity, and trust in other people, are positively predictive of far right over abstention. Conversely, far right party voters and voters for other parties display similar levels of political interest and social integration. Other issues, such as Euroskepticism and anti-immigrant attitudes are more common among far right voters, and distinguish them from both other voters and those who just stay home.

      PubDate: 2017-09-25T20:36:05Z
  • Irrationalizing the rational choice model of voting: The moderating
           effects of partisanship on turnout decisions in Western and postcommunist
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 9 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Dong-Joon Jung
      The rational choice model of voting has been criticized by the fact that citizens expecting greater costs than the benefits associated with voting still turn out. This article focuses on the function of partisanship by which the effect of the rational calculation on voting is moderated. Previous studies have only tested the effect of partisanship on turnout additively failing to explore its interactions with the costs and benefits of voting. My multilevel analyses using the CSES data show that partisanship significantly moderates the effects of the information costs and intrinsic benefits of voting on turnout. These results, however, are not found in the postcommunist new democracies with unstable party system hindering partisanship from serving as a political cue and providing an expressive satisfaction of voting.

      PubDate: 2017-09-13T22:36:07Z
  • The Matthew effect in electoral campaigns: Increasing policy congruence
           inequality during the campaign
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 8 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Stefaan Walgrave, Christophe Lesschaeve

      PubDate: 2017-09-13T22:36:07Z
  • How voter mobilization from short text messages travels within households
           and families: Evidence from two nationwide field experiments
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 5 September 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Yosef Bhatti, Jens Olav Dahlgaard, Jonas Hedegaard Hansen, Kasper M. Hansen
      Through two large GOTV field experiments in two different elections, we investigate the spillover effect to other household members and family members outside the household. We mobilized young voters with cell phone text messages, a campaign tactic unlikely to be observed by other persons than the treated. The direct effect varied but approximately 30 percent spilled over to other persons in the household, even parents. The effects are subtle and we cannot with certainty establish that a spillover effect exists. However, we demonstrate, using Bayesian updating, that even an initial skeptic becomes close to convinced that the effect spills over. Our study provides evidence by suggesting that young individuals’ decision to vote affect other household members, including their parents, to do the same. When young voters live without their parents, we find no evidence of spillovers to parents, suggesting that households are more important than families ties for turnout contagion.

      PubDate: 2017-09-07T22:18:21Z
  • Truman defeats Dewey: The effect of campaign visits on election outcomes
    • Abstract: Publication date: October 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 49
      Author(s): Boris Heersink, Brenton D. Peterson
      Political science research suggests that campaign visits by presidential candidates produce small and short-lived effects, consistent with mixed findings of their influence on election returns. We argue that existing studies are constrained by two issues: most studies rely on state-level data, rather than more localized data, and do not incorporate differentiation in the quality of campaign appearances in their assessment of visit effects. To incorporate these concerns in a study of campaign visit effects on election outcomes, we study the 1948 presidential election, during which Harry Truman engaged in a major whistle-stop train tour and won a surprise victory over his opponent, Thomas Dewey. Using data on campaign stops gathered from archival sources, we estimate the effect of campaign appearances on candidate vote share at the county level. We find that Truman, on average, gained 3.06 percentage points of the overall vote share in counties that he visited. Consistent with contemporary judgments of the “quality” of the two candidates' campaign stops, we find no effect of Dewey's appearances on his performance. Our results provide strong evidence that candidate visits can influence electoral returns, rather than merely affect short-term public opinion. In counterfactual simulations, we show that Truman's extensive campaign tour likely won him the state of Ohio, highlighting the importance of strategic campaign decisions and campaign effects in close elections.

      PubDate: 2017-09-01T22:00:06Z
  • The relative weight of character traits in political candidate
           evaluations: Warmth is more important than competence, leadership and
    • Abstract: Publication date: October 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 49
      Author(s): Lasse Laustsen, Alexander Bor
      Decades of research has found that voters’ electoral decisions to a significant degree are affected by character evaluations of candidates. Yet it remains unresolved which specific candidate traits voters find most important. In political science it is often argued that competence-related traits are most influential, whereas work in social psychology suggests that warmth-related traits are more influential. Here we test which character trait is the more influential in global candidate evaluations and vote choice using observational data from the ANES 1984–2008 and an original experiment conducted on a representative sample of English partisan respondents. Across the two studies we find that warmth is more influential than competence, leadership and integrity. Importantly, results hold across a wide range of alternative specifications and robustness analyses. We conclude by discussing theoretical and practical implications of the results.

      PubDate: 2017-09-01T22:00:06Z
  • Type of education and voter turnout – Evidence from a register-based
    • Abstract: Publication date: October 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies, Volume 49
      Author(s): Yosef Bhatti
      The relationship between education length and voter turnout has been one of the most studied in the political participation literature in recent decades. However, few studies focus on education type, and most of the existing research on this topic relies on cross-sectional data. In the current study, we utilize a large register-based panel dataset to investigate the effect of education type. We find no effects of education type when investigating overall types of education, but we find substantial effects when examining a specific type of education program with a particularly high civic content.

      PubDate: 2017-09-01T22:00:06Z
  • Public trust in manipulated elections: The role of election administration
           and media freedom
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 18 August 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Nicholas Kerr, Anna Lührmann
      As multiparty elections have become a global norm, scholars and policy experts regard public trust in elections as vital for regime legitimacy. However, very few cross-national studies have examined the consequences of electoral manipulation, including the manipulation of election administration and the media, on citizens' trust in elections. This paper addresses this gap by exploring how autonomy of election management bodies (EMBs) and media freedom individually and conjointly shape citizens’ trust in elections. Citizens are more likely to express confidence in elections when EMBs display de-facto autonomy, and less likely to do so when mass media disseminate information independent of government control. Additionally, we suggest that EMB autonomy may not have a positive effect on public trust in elections if media freedom is low. Empirical findings based on recent survey data on public trust in 47 elections and expert data on de-facto EMB autonomy and media freedom support our hypotheses.

      PubDate: 2017-09-01T22:00:06Z
  • Ideology and strategic party disloyalty in the US house of representatives
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 29 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Justin H. Kirkland, Jonathan B. Slapin
      We offer a theory of strategic party disloyalty to explain roll call voting in the US House. Our theory suggests that ideologically extreme legislators become markedly less loyal to their party when it controls the majority. They stake out positions that align with the views of their extreme constituents when policy is likely to move in their direction. In contrast, ideological moderates become noticeably more loyal when they transition to the majority. Examining 35 years of ideal point estimates and measures of party unity on roll calls, we find clear evidence that member strategy, ideology, and legislative agenda setting interact to structure the frequency of defections. Further, we find evidence that defection and ideology interact to influence subsequent electoral outcomes.

      PubDate: 2017-08-03T03:30:09Z
  • Modeling spending preferences & public policy
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 24 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): J. Alexander Branham, Stephen A. Jessee
      Understanding preferences over government spending is important for understanding electoral behavior and many other aspects of the political world. Using data on relative preferences for more or less spending across different issue areas, we estimate the general spending preferences of individuals and congressional candidates along a left-right spending dimension. Our modeling approach also allows us to estimate the location of policies on this same dimension, permitting direct comparison of people's spending preferences with where they perceive policy to be. We find that public shows very low levels of polarization on spending preferences, even across characteristics like partisanship, ideology, or income level. The distribution of candidates' spending preferences shows much more sorting by party, but candidates are significantly less polarized than is contemporary voting in Congress.

      PubDate: 2017-08-03T03:30:09Z
  • Competing loyalties in electoral reform: An analysis of the U.S. electoral
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 22 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Sheahan G. Virgin
      A central tenet in the electoral systems subfield is that parties, when in power and motivated by partisan interest, seek desired outcomes via the strategic adoption of electoral rules. Such a focus, however, omits a key point: electoral rules also distribute power among geographic units. If, within a party, the partisan and geographic interests of some members conflict, then the canonical relationship between partisanship and rule choice may be conditional. The U.S. electoral college provides an opportunity to test for such intra-party variation, because it advantages some states over others and thus makes salient geographic allegiances. Using an original dataset on one reform proposal—the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)—I find evidence of competing loyalties. Although NPVIC advances furthest when Democrats control state lawmaking, a state's status as a swing—but not as an overrepresented—state weakens the relationship to the point where even Democrats are unlikely to aid NPVIC.

      PubDate: 2017-07-24T03:00:01Z
  • The elasticity of voter turnout: Investing 85 cents per voter to increase
           voter turnout by 4 percent
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 22 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Mark Schelker, Marco Schneiter
      In the aftermath of elections or ballots, the legitimacy of the result is regularly debated if voter turnout was considered to be low. Hence, discussions about legal reforms to increase turnout are common in most democracies. We analyze the impact of a very small change in voting costs on voter turnout. Some municipalities in the Swiss Canton of Berne reduced voting costs by prepaying the postage of the return envelope (CHF 0.85). Prepaid postage is associated with a statistically significant 1.8 percentage point increase in voter turnout. Overall, this amounts to 4 percent more voters participating in the ballots. Moreover, we estimate the influence of this increase in turnout on party support in popular ballots. We find that social democrats and environmentalists see their relative support decline.

      PubDate: 2017-07-24T03:00:01Z
  • Endogenous ballot structures: The selection of open and closed lists in
           Colombia’s legislative elections
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 21 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Susan Achury, Margarita Ramírez, Francisco Cantú
      What are the incentives for parties to personalize electoral competition' This paper proposes that both open and closed lists give congruity, rather than tension, to the interests of party leaders and candidates. However, the efficacy of each list type depends on the electoral returns expected from promoting the partisan and personal vote. To test this argument, we analyze the choices of parties over the ballot structure by leveraging an unusual institutional feature of the Colombian legislative elections, wherein parties are allowed to present either an open or a closed list, varying their choices across electoral districts and contests. Our empirical analysis shows that parties are more likely to open their lists in high-magnitude districts and wherever they have a strong, local electoral organization. We also find a positive relationship between the selection of closed lists among personalist parties, providing evidence to previous arguments proposing a closed list as a tool to concentrate campaign efforts behind a particular candidate.

      PubDate: 2017-07-24T03:00:01Z
  • A balance between candidate- and party-centric representation under
           mixed-member systems: The evidence from voter behavior in Taiwan
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 20 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Tsung-han Tsai
      Mixed-member systems are usually defined as electoral systems that combine SMDP and CLPR, both of which are more likely to induce party reputation-seeking. Building on the literature of electoral institutions, this article provides an explanation of how mixed-member systems structure voter behavior and achieve a balance between candidate- and party-centric representation. Using Taiwan as a case of MMS, this article tests hypotheses against survey data and investigates the determinants of voting decisions for the two ballots. By employing a Bayesian bivariate probit model, this article shows that, first, partisan factors affect voter behavior in both nominal and list ballots. However, it is affective rather than rational considerations for political parties that play the major role. Second, personal reputation influences voters’ choices of the nominal and list vote, but only negative elements matter for the list vote. Finally, there is a moderately positive correlation between the two ballots, which potentially results from affective, partisan considerations.

      PubDate: 2017-07-24T03:00:01Z
  • Malapportionment and democracy: A curvilinear relationship
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 17 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Kian-Ming Ong, Yuko Kasuya, Kota Mori
      This article examines electoral malapportionment by illuminating the relationship between malapportionment level and democracy. Although a seminal study rejects this relationship, we argue that a logical and empirically significant relationship exists, which is curvilinear and is based on a framework focusing on incumbent politicians' incentives and the constraints they face regarding malapportionment. Malapportionment is lowest in established democracies and electoral authoritarian regimes with an overwhelmingly strong incumbent; it is relatively high in new democracies and authoritarian regimes with robust opposition forces. The seminal study's null finding is due to the mismatch between theoretical mechanisms and choice of democracy indices. Employing an original cross-national dataset, we conduct regression analyses; the results support our claims. Furthermore, on controlling the degree of democracy, the single-member district system's effects become insignificant. Australia, Belarus, the Gambia, Japan, Malaysia, Tunisia, and the United States illustrate the political logic underlying curvilinear relations at democracy's various levels.

      PubDate: 2017-07-24T03:00:01Z
  • Blind spots in the party system: Spatial voting and issue salience if
           voters face scarce choices
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 12 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Anna-Sophie Kurella, Jan Rosset
      Drawing on spatial models of political competition, this research investigates whether decision weights vary across groups of voters defined by their policy positioning in a two-dimensional space. Our analyses of electoral survey data from England, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland reveal that the economic and cultural dimensions of electoral competition are salient for the vote choice of most groups of voters. However, those voters who hold economically left and culturally right preferences weigh their preferences on the economic dimension much more and discount parties’ position on cultural issues when no party represents their configuration of preferences. Consequently, left parties are less able to attain votes of economically right but culturally libertarian voters for cultural policy reasons, when electoral choices are scarce, while right parties are successful in attaining votes based on both dimensions. As a result, significant representation gaps can occur.

      PubDate: 2017-07-24T03:00:01Z
  • Ethnic diversity decreases turnout. Comparative evidence from over 650
           elections around the world
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 12 July 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Ferran Martinez i Coma, Alessandro Nai
      Ethnic diversity has been shown to play a significant role in public goods provision, economic growth and government quality, to mention a few. However, we do not know which is the impact of ethnic diversity on turnout. In this article, we determine which dimensions of ethnic diversity affects turnout. To do so, we have gathered data from over 650 parliamentary elections in 102 democracies covering over a fifty-year period. Our models and seven complementary robustness checks show that elections in countries with more fractionalised, more polarised and more concentrated ethnic groups have a significantly and substantially lower turnout.

      PubDate: 2017-07-24T03:00:01Z
  • Changing votes or changing voters? How candidates and election context
           swing voters and mobilize the base
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 7 June 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Seth J. Hill
      To win elections, candidates attempt to mobilize supporters and persuade swing voters. With what magnitude each operates across American elections is not clear. I argue that the influence of swing voters should depend upon change in the candidates across elections and that the consequences of changes in composition should depend upon the relative balance of campaign expenditures. I estimate a Bayesian hierarchical model on Florida electoral data for house, governor, and senate contests. Swing voters contribute on average 4.1 percentage points to change in party vote shares, while change in turnout influences outcomes by 8.6 points. The effect of swing voters is increasing in the divergence between the Democrat and Republican candidates. Candidates increasingly benefit from the votes of occasional voters as the relative balance of campaign spending increases in their favor. More broadly, the effects of swing voters and turnout are not constant features of American elections, instead varying across time and space in ways related to candidates and context.

      PubDate: 2017-06-12T15:01:53Z
  • Issue clarity in electoral competition: Insights from Austria
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 26 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Katrin Praprotnik
      This paper analyses parties' policy supply in electoral campaigns. In so doing, it proposes to look at issue clarity which is defined as the share of objectively testable pledges within an election manifesto. The main argument states that parties not only decide their positions and issue saliencies, but also the level of specificity with which they present their policies. The data come from Austria (1990–2008) and, thus, provide a good example for a Western European multi-party system with proportional representation. The analyses show that extreme parties present manifestos with higher issue clarity compared to moderate parties. Furthermore, this result is strengthened by a party's role in government. Issue ownership, however, seems to have no effect on issue clarity.

      PubDate: 2017-05-27T16:40:15Z
  • How representative are referendums? Evidence from 20 years of Swiss
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 24 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Arndt Leininger, Lea Heyne
      Direct democracy allows citizens to reverse decisions made by legislatures and even initiate new laws which parliaments are unwilling to pass, thereby, as its proponents argue, leading to more representative policies than would have obtained under a purely representative democracy. Yet, turnout in referendums is usually lower than in parliamentary elections and tends to be skewed towards citizens of high socio-economic status. Consequently, critics of direct democracy argue that referendum outcomes may not be representative of the preferences of the population at large. We test this assertion using a compilation of post-referendum surveys encompassing 148 national referendums held in Switzerland between 1981 and 1999. Uniquely, these surveys also asked non-voters about their opinion on the referendum's subject. Comparing opinion majorities in the surveys against actual referendum outcomes we show that representativeness increases slightly in turnout as well as over time. However, we find only few cases where the outcome would have been more representative even under full turnout vis-a vis a counterfactual representative outcome. Thus, our results are in line with research on the turnout effect in elections: Higher turnout would not radically change the outcome of votes. On balance we find more cases where referendums provided more representative outcomes than cases where the outcome was unrepresentative vis-a-vis representative democracy. Hence, we conclude that, overall, direct democracy seems to improve representation in Switzerland.

      PubDate: 2017-05-27T16:40:15Z
  • Ballot design and invalid votes: Evidence from Colombia
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 24 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Mónica Pachón, Royce Carroll, Hernando Barragán

      PubDate: 2017-05-27T16:40:15Z
  • The local roots of the participation gap: Inequality and voter turnout
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 19 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): John Bartle, Sarah Birch, Mariana Skirmuntt
      It is generally accepted that the rich are more likely to participate in politics than the poor. It is also generally accepted that the probability than an individual will participate in elections is influenced by the gap between the rich and the poor. There is little agreement, however, about whether inequality across time and space increases or decreases participation. In this paper we examine the impact of inequality across space. We suggest that the impact of inequality depends crucially on whether it is defined in terms of variations between geographical units (‘segregation’) or within geographical units (‘heterogeneity’). Evidence to support this argument is drawn from multi-level British data. Heterogeneity has a mildly positive effect on participation but this effect seems to be outweighed by the negative impact of segregation. The effect of segregation, moreover, is most pronounced among the poorer sections of the population, indicating that geographical isolation among the poor ('ghettoization') leads to lower turnout among these groups.

      PubDate: 2017-05-22T14:00:14Z
  • Levels or changes?: Ethnic context, immigration and the UK
           Independence party vote
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 19 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Eric Kaufmann
      Will the rising share of ethnic minorities in western societies spark a backlash or lead to greater acceptance of diversity? This paper examines this question through the prism of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), the most successful populist right party in British history. The paper contributes to work on contextual effects by arguing that ethnic levels and changes cross-pressure white opinion and voting. It argues that high levels of established ethnic minorities reduce opposition to immigration and support for UKIP among White Britons. Conversely, more rapid ethnic changes increase opposition to immigration and support for UKIP. Longitudinal data demonstrates that these effects are not produced by self-selection. The data further illustrate that with time, diversity levels increase their threat-reducing power while the threatening effects of ethnic change fade. Results suggest that the contextual effects literature needs to routinely unpack levels from changes. This also suggests that if the pace of immigration slows, immigration attitudes should soften and populist right voting decline.

      PubDate: 2017-05-22T14:00:14Z
  • On the mismeasurement of sincere and strategic voting in mixed-member
           electoral systems
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 17 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Carolina Plescia
      Under mixed systems, voters cast two votes to elect the same legislative body: one vote for parties using proportional rules and one for candidates using majoritarian rules. Voters are said to cast straight-tickets if the candidate they vote for is of the same party as their proportional vote; otherwise, they are said to cast split-tickets. Split-ticket voting is commonly used as a measure of strategic voting as splitters are usually assumed to express their true preference in one vote but vote strategically in the other. This study challenges this practice showing that split-ticket voting does not necessarily indicate strategic voting, just as straight-ticket voting does not necessarily indicate a sincere vote. This result has wider consequences as it indicates that measuring strategic voting from observed behaviour can result in incorrect conclusions about vote choice.

      PubDate: 2017-05-18T12:12:26Z
  • Masters of their fate? Explaining MPs’ re-candidacy in the long run: The
           case of Italy (1987–2013)
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 13 May 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Bruno Marino, Nicola Martocchia Diodati
      Why are certain Members of Parliament (MPs) more likely to get re-candidacy for national legislative elections, therefore having the possibility to continue their career? This article answers this question by comparing political elites' long-debated explanations with more legislative behaviour-related factors. By focusing on more than 25 years of the Italian Lower House's history, we have built a novel dataset on the legislative behaviour and career patterns of more than 3500 Italian MPs. A multilevel logistic regression analysis shows that, with the exception of party switching, legislative behaviour does not seem to exert a significant impact on MPs' re-candidacy. On the contrary, the career status of parliamentarians, i.e., their parliamentary position or their ministerial historical record, strongly influences their chances of obtaining re-candidacy.

      PubDate: 2017-05-18T12:12:26Z
  • Demonisation and electoral support for populist radical right parties: A
           temporary effect
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 21 April 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Sjoerdje Charlotte van Heerden, Wouter van der Brug
      Since the 1980s, Western Europe has experienced the surge of populist radical right parties. In an attempt to ward off these electoral newcomers, established parties have pursued strategies of disengagement, such as exclusion and de-legitimisation. This study examines the electoral effects of an excessive form of de-legitimisation, which we label ‘demonisation’. We estimate the effects of demonisation on electoral support for the Dutch Freedom Party (PVV) and its predecessor Groep Wilders. Time series analyses show that demonisation has a negative effect on electoral support, but only for Groep Wilders. Once the populist radical right party has made a successful entry into the party system, demonisation does not have its intended consequences.

      PubDate: 2017-04-26T16:57:30Z
  • The “timeline” method of studying electoral dynamics
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 11 April 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Christopher Wlezien, Will Jennings, Robert Erikson
      To study the evolution of electoral preferences, Erikson and Wlezien (2012) propose assessing the correspondence between pre-election polls and the vote in a set of elections. That is, they treat poll data not as a set of time series but as a series of cross-sections—across elections—for each day of the election cycle. This “timeline” method does not provide complete information, but does reveal general patterns of electoral dynamics, and has been applied to elections in numerous countries. The application of the method involves a number of decisions that have not been explicitly addressed in previous research, however. There are three primary issues: (1) how best to assess the evolution of preferences; (2) how to deal with missing data; and (3) the consequences of sampling error. This paper considers each of these issues and provides answers. In the end, the analyses suggest that simpler approaches are better. It also may be that a more general strategy is possible, in which scholars could explicitly model the variation in poll-vote error across countries, elections, parties and time. We consider that direction for future research in the concluding section.

      PubDate: 2017-04-12T08:50:04Z
  • Assessing the validity of the Manifesto Common Space Scores
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 6 April 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Jan-Erik Flentje, Thomas König, Moritz Marbach
      RILE estimates based on party manifesto data suggest that political parties leapfrog on the left-right scale over time. This implausible finding has raised questions about the efficacy not only of RILE for estimating left-right positions but of coded party manifestos for political science research in general. The recently developed Manifesto Common Space Scores (MCSS), which reduce leapfrogging by accounting for the election-specific character of party manifestos, provide alternative estimates for parties left/right-positions, but little is known about their validity. This study shows that MCSS estimates exhibit greater convergent validity relative to RILE estimates when compared to other measures of parties left/right-positions. It also finds that MCSS has greater construct validity relative to RILE estimates in two prominent cases (Greece and Italy). Overall, the findings underscore the election-specific character of party manifestos and demonstrate that MCSS is a useful alternative measure of parties’ left-right positions.

      PubDate: 2017-04-12T08:50:04Z
  • Internet voting and turnout: Evidence from Switzerland
    • Abstract: Publication date: Available online 12 March 2017
      Source:Electoral Studies
      Author(s): Micha Germann, Uwe Serdült
      Internet voting (i-voting) is often discussed as a potential remedy against declining turnout rates. This paper presents new evidence on the causal effect of i-voting on turnout, drawing on trials conducted in two Swiss cantons: Geneva and Zurich. Both Geneva and Zurich constitute hard cases for i-voting, given that i-voting was introduced in the presence of postal voting. However, this setting allows us to test some of the more optimistic claims regarding i-voting's ability to increase turnout. Empirically, we exploit the advantageous circumstance that federal legislation created a situation coming close to a natural experiment, with some of Geneva's and Zurich's municipalities participating in i-voting trials and others not. Using difference-in-differences estimation, we find that i-voting did not increase turnout in the cantons of Geneva and Zurich.

      PubDate: 2017-03-12T16:58:02Z
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