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Open Access journal
ISSN (Online) 1435-9871
Published by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research [1 journal]
- "Let’s talk about love": An analysis of thereligious and economic
factors determining the choice of marital property regime in Italy (by
Gabriele Ruiu, Marco Breschi)
In sociological literature, expectations about marriages’ duration are generally considered to be one of the main determinants in the pooling of economic resources between spouses. According to Catholic precepts, religious marriages are indissoluble, and Italy is characterized by a Catholic religious monopoly, with an anomalously high level of religious attendance for a developed country.
It may therefore be surmised that religious marriages should be characterized by a high propensity for opting for a pooled patrimonial system. Is this hypothesis confirmed by data?
We studied comprehensive data on all the marriages solemnized in Italy for the period 2007‒2009. We then use multivariate logistic regressions to assess which factors are associated with a greater propensity for opting for the pooled patrimonial system.
We find that religious marriages are not characterized by a higher probability of wealth pooling with respect to civil marriages.
PubDate: Fri, 17 Mar 2017 00:00:00
- Measuring male fertility rates in developing countries with Demographic
and Health Surveys: An assessment of three methods (by Bruno Schoumaker)
Levels and patterns of male fertility are poorly documented in developing countries. Demographic accounts of male fertility focus primarily on developed countries, and where such accounts do exist for developing countries they are mainly available at the local or regional level.
We show how data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) can be used to compute age-specific male fertility rates. Three methods are described and compared: the own-children method, the date-of-last-birth method, and the crisscross method. Male and female fertility rates are compared using the own-children method.
Male fertility estimates produced using the own-children method emerge as the most trustworthy. The data needed for this method is widely available and makes it possible to document male fertility in a large number of developing countries. The date-of-last-birth method also appears worthwhile, and may be especially useful for analyzing fertility differentials. The crisscross method is less reliable, but may be of interest for ages below 40. Comparisons of male and female fertility show that reproductive experiences differ across gender in most developing countries: Male fertility is substantially higher than female fertility, and males have their children later than females.
PubDate: Thu, 16 Mar 2017 00:00:00
- First signs of transition: The parallel decline of early baptism and early
mortality in the province of Padua (northeast Italy), 1816‒1870 (by
Alessandra Minello, Gianpiero Dalla-Zuanna, Guido Alfani)
The aim of this article is to investigate the parallel decline of early baptism and early mortality at the beginning of the demographic transition in a European high-neonatal mortality context.
We use an individual-nominative linked database of 33,000 births and 10,000 deaths for 11 parishes in the province of Padua (northeast Italy) from 1816 to 1870. We utilize life tables, logistic regressions, and two-level logistic regressions, including characteristics of the family.
Life tables and regression models show that during the winter, the association between early baptism and the risk of death is pronounced. The connection persists also during the summer, when the exposure to low temperature could not influence the risk of death, and a reverse effect could prevail. (Children in periculo mortis were immediately baptized.) Family behaviours influence both early baptism and early death.
The data shows clearly that those social groups and families and those areas experiencing the most intense decline in early baptism were also those in which mortality during the first three months of life declined more. However, it is not true that - as suggested by commentators at the time - the strong statistical connection between the two events was just a direct one, with cold exposure exacerbated by early baptism increasing the risk of dying from hypothermia or respiratory diseases.
PubDate: Wed, 15 Mar 2017 00:00:00
- Generalised count distributions for modelling parity (by Bilal Barakat)
Parametric count distributions customarily used in demography – the Poisson and negative binomial models – do not offer satisfactory descriptions of empirical distributions of completed cohort parity. One reason is that they cannot model variance-to-mean ratios below unity, i.e., underdispersion, which is typical of low-fertility parity distributions. Statisticians have recently revived two generalised count distributions that can model both over- and underdispersion, but they have not attracted demographers’ attention to date.
The objective of this paper is to assess the utility of these alternative general count distributions, namely the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson and gamma count models, for the modeling of distributions of completed parity.
Simulations and maximum-likelihood estimation are used to assess their fit to empirical data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD).
The results show that the generalised count distributions offer a dramatically improved fit compared to customary Poisson and negative binomial models in the presence of under- dispersion, without performance loss in the case of equidispersion or overdispersion.
This gain in accuracy suggests generalised count distributions should be used as a matter of course in studies of fertility that examine completed parity as an outcome.
PubDate: Tue, 14 Mar 2017 00:00:00
- The spatialities of ageing: Evidencing increasing spatial polarisation
between older and younger adults in England and Wales (by Albert Sabater,
Elspeth Graham, Nissa Finney)
With the proportion of older adults in Europe expected to grow significantly over the next few decades, a number of pertinent questions are raised about the socio-spatial processes that underlie residential age segregation, especially in circumstances where it may be increasing.
We present evidence on whether, and to what degree, residential age segregation has changed across neighbourhoods in England and Wales since the 1990s.
We examine the residential patterns of older adults (aged 65 and over) compared to those of younger adults (aged 25-40) for neighbourhoods across the country, for neighbourhoods within districts, and for neighbourhoods within districts classified by type. The analyses use harmonised population data for small areas (Output Areas) from the 1991, 2001, and 2011 Censuses of England and Wales.
The results reveal increasing segregation over time (1991-2011) between older and younger groups across neighbourhoods nationally. Although the index values of segregation tend to be higher in less urban areas, highlighting a strong age and life course dimension of the rural-urban divide, a rapid increase in age segregation is found in urban areas. Moreover, our findings suggest the existence of convergent clusters of increasing age segregation, particularly in urban settings (from small to large cities) and former industrial areas in the North of England, thus providing evidence suggesting a further dimension of the North-South divide.
The findings demonstrate a growing age bifurcation over time and space, as both older and younger age groups are increasingly living apart. Although the drivers and consequences of these trends in residential age segregation remain unclear, the potential challenge to policies of social cohesion underlines the importance of further research.
PubDate: Wed, 08 Mar 2017 00:00:00
- In Memoriam: Professor Jan M. Hoem (by James W. Vaupel)
Abstract: Jan Hoem died on Saturday in Stockholm after a long illness. Jan became Director of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in 1999; he and I jointly led the Institute for almost eight years. During this period he served as Editor of Demographic Research; he took on this responsibility shortly after the journal was launched and built the journal into a respected online source of cutting-edge analysis.
Jan was a superb colleague, with very good judgment, a delightful sense of humor, and deep devotion to research quality. A pioneer of event history analysis, he understood the subtleties of the subject better than anyone else.
Jan was born and educated in Norway and worked in Oslo before becoming Professor in Copenhagen and then Professor in Stockholm, where he established SUDA, a leading demographic research initiative. His dedication to high-quality, statistically sophisticated population research at SUDA and MPIDR as well as in the journal Demographic Research substantially advanced the discipline of demography.
Jan was a warm and generous teacher, a loyal colleague, and a caring friend whom many people will long remember with gratitude and respect.
James W. Vaupel
Publisher, Demographic Research
PubDate: Tue, 28 Feb 2017 00:00:00
- Education, labour, and the demographic consequences of birth postponement
in Europe (by Hippolyte d'Albis, Angela Greulich, Grégory Ponthière)
This article questions the demographic consequences of birth postponement in Europe.
Starting from the fact that there is no obvious link between the timing of first births and fertility levels in Europe, we find that under certain circumstances, birth postponement potentially facilitates rather than impedes starting a family.
We apply a synthetic cohort approach and distinguish between different socioeconomic determinants of the timing of first births by using the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). Data is compiled specifically to reduce endogeneity and to eliminate structure effects.
We find that the probability of becoming a mother is higher for women who postpone first childbirth due to education and career investment than for women who postpone due to unrealized labour market integration.
Educated and economically active women certainly postpone first childbirth in comparison to women who are less educated and who are not working, but they end up with a higher probability of starting a family.
PubDate: Thu, 23 Feb 2017 00:00:00
- Orphan status, school attendance, and relationship to household head in
Nigeria (by Aramide Kazeem, Leif Jensen)
This study addresses the important issue of whether extended family networks can meet the educational needs of orphans in Nigeria. The theory behind this paper is based on Hamilton’s rule, which holds that individuals are less altruistic toward those with whom they have distant kinship ties.
Our objective is to determine whether orphans experience an educational advantage if they reside in households headed by blood relatives rather than non-relatives, paying attention to age and household income differences.
We use logistic regression to estimate models of children’s school attendance based on data from the 2010 Nigeria Education Data Survey (NEDS). The analyses examine the associations of paternal (father died) and maternal/double orphans (mother or both parents died) and child’s relation to the household head with school attendance. It also investigates how the pattern of relationships differs by age of children and household income.
The results indicate that paternal and maternal/double orphans who are distantly related to their household heads have lower chances of attending school than those who have close biological ties, specifically when they reside in poor households. This finding is consistent with Hamilton’s rule.
Our analysis suggests that orphanhood is problematic for those more distantly related to their guardians and in poor households. Since the disadvantages of orphanhood carry on into later life, ameliorative policies and programs need to be attentive to the double disadvantages faced by children in such circumstances.
PubDate: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 00:00:00
- Visualizing compositional data on the Lexis surface (by Jonas
Schöley, Frans Willekens)
The Lexis surface plot is an established visualization tool in demography. Ist present utility, however, is limited to the domain of one-dimensional magnitudes such as rates and counts. Visualizing proportions among three or more groups on a period-age grid is an unsolved problem.
We seek to extend the Lexis surface plot to the domain of compositional data.
We propose four techniques for visualizing group compositions on a period-age grid. To demonstrate the techniques we use data on age-speciﬁc cause-of-death compositions in France from 1925 to 1999. We compare the visualizations for compliance with multiple desired criteria.
Compositional data can effectively be visualized on the Lexis surface. A key feature of the classical Lexis surface plot – to show age, period, and cohort patterns – is retained in the domain of compositions. The optimal choice among the four proposed techniques depends primarily on the number of groups making up the composition and whether or not the plot should be readable by people with impaired colour vision.
A full-colour representation is key to understanding the paper. Therefore, we recommend that you read it on screen or print a colour version.
PubDate: Fri, 17 Feb 2017 00:00:00
- The timing of marriage vis-à-vis coresidence and childbearing in Europe
and the United States (by Jennifer A. Holland)
These descriptive findings extend Holland’s (2013) marriage typology by linking the timing of marriage, childbearing, and cohabitation, and apply it to a range of European countries and the United States. The meaning of marriage is organized around six ideal types: Direct Family-Forming, Post-Cohabitation Family-Forming, Conception-Related Legitimizing, Birth-Related Legitimizing, Reinforcing, and Capstone marriage.
I present descriptive tabulations of data from the Harmonized Histories, covering 17 European countries and the United States, to highlight continuity and change in the context of marriage across the life course, cohorts, and countries.
Although smaller shares of women entered marriage at each age across cohorts, there is increasing diversity in the timing and context of marriage. Family-Forming marriage continues to be the majority marriage experience, but Direct Family-Forming marriage has declined and Post-Cohabitation Family-Forming marriage has increased in many contexts. Conception-Related Legitimizing marriages became more important in Central and Eastern Europe but less common in Western, Northern, and Anglo-Saxon countries. Limited evidence of growth in post-first-birth marriages suggests that childbearing intentions or a first conception continue to be important triggers for marriage, although this may be changing in Nordic, Anglo-Saxon, and some Western European countries.
While most people who marry do so prior to or in the absence of a first conception, increasingly marriage is not the first step in the family-building process. Still, for many women in diverse country contexts, marriage continues to be very closely linked to initiating childbearing.
PubDate: Wed, 15 Feb 2017 00:00:00
- Adult mortality patterns in the former Soviet Union’s southern tier:
Armenia and Georgia in comparative perspective (by Géraldine Duthé,
Michel Guillot, France Meslé, Jacques Vallin, Irina Badurashvili, Mikhail
Denisenko, Natalia Gavrilova , Karine Kuyumjyan, Liudmila Torgasheva )
While the health crisis in the former USSR has been well-documented in the case of Russia and other northern former Soviet republics, little is known about countries located in the southern tier of the region, i.e., the Caucasus and Central Asia.
This paper presents new mortality information from two Caucasian countries, Georgia and Armenia. Results are compared with information from two relevant countries previously examined in the literature, Kyrgyzstan and Russia.
Using official statistics (with adjustments when necessary), we compare adult mortality patterns in the four countries since 1979, for all causes and by cause for the recent period. For Kyrgyzstan results are presented by ethnicity, as its mortality levels have been impacted by its large Slavic population.
Adult mortality patterns in Armenia and Georgia have been more favorable than in Russia. This appears to be due to a large extent to lower mortality from alcohol-related causes. Mortality patterns in these Caucasian republics resemble those observed in Kyrgyzstan, especially when considering the native portion of the population.
As far as mortality is concerned, Armenia and Georgia have weathered the collapse of the Soviet Union better than Russia. These results document a distinct southern tier pattern of adult mortality in the former Soviet Union.
PubDate: Tue, 14 Feb 2017 00:00:00