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ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES (726 journals)            First | 1 2 3 4     

Showing 601 - 378 of 378 Journals sorted alphabetically
Research Journal of Environmental Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Research Journal of Environmental Toxicology     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
ReSource     Full-text available via subscription  
Resources     Open Access  
Resources and Environment     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Resources, Conservation and Recycling     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22)
Rethinking Ecology     Open Access  
Reuse/Recycle Newsletter     Hybrid Journal  
Review of Environmental Economics and Policy     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
Revista AIDIS de Ingeniería y Ciencias Ambientales. Investigación, desarrollo y práctica     Open Access  
Revista Ambivalências     Open Access  
Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Revista Capital Científico     Open Access  
Revista Chapingo. Serie Ciencias Forestales y del Ambiente     Open Access  
Revista de Ciências Ambientais     Open Access  
Revista de Ciencias Ambientales     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Revista de Direito Ambiental e Socioambientalismo     Open Access  
Revista de Direito e Sustentabilidade     Open Access  
Revista de Gestão Ambiental e Sustentabilidade - GeAS     Open Access  
Revista de Salud Ambiental     Open Access  
Revista Direito Ambiental e Sociedade     Open Access  
Revista Eletrônica de Gestão e Tecnologias Ambientais     Open Access  
Revista Eletrônica em Gestão, Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental     Open Access  
Revista Eletrônica TECCEN     Open Access  
Revista Geama     Open Access  
Revista Hábitat Sustenable     Open Access  
Revista Internacional de Ciências     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Revista Meio Ambiente e Sustentabilidade     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Revista Metropolitana de Sustentabilidade     Open Access  
Revista Monografias Ambientais     Open Access  
Revista Mundi Meio Ambiente e Agrárias     Open Access  
Revista Verde de Agroecologia e Desenvolvimento Sustentável     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Ring     Open Access  
Riparian Ecology and Conservation     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Rivista di Studi sulla Sostenibilità     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
RUDN Journal of Ecology and Life Safety     Open Access  
Russian Journal of Ecology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
S.A.P.I.EN.S     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Safety Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 36)
San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science     Open Access  
SAR and QSAR in Environmental Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Saúde e Meio Ambiente : Revista Interdisciplinar     Open Access  
Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment & Health     Partially Free   (Followers: 14)
Science of The Total Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 26)
Sciences Eaux & Territoires : la Revue du Cemagref     Open Access  
Scientific Journal of Environmental Sciences     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Sepsis     Hybrid Journal  
Smart Grid and Renewable Energy     Open Access   (Followers: 7)
Social and Environmental Accountability Journal     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Soil and Sediment Contamination: An International Journal     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 1)
Soil and Tillage Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
SourceOCDE Environnement et developpement durable     Full-text available via subscription  
SourceOECD Environment & Sustainable Development     Full-text available via subscription  
South Australian Geographical Journal     Open Access  
South Pacific Journal of Natural and Applied Sciences     Hybrid Journal  
Southern Forests : a Journal of Forest Science     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Sriwijaya Journal of Environment     Open Access  
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Strategic Behavior and the Environment     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 2)
Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Studies in Conservation     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Studies in Environmental Science     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 3)
Sustainability     Open Access   (Followers: 17)
Sustainability in Environment     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Sustainability of Water Quality and Ecology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Sustainable Cities and Society     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20)
Sustainable Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
Sustainable Development Law & Policy     Open Access   (Followers: 6)
Sustainable Development Strategy and Practise     Open Access  
Sustainable Environment Research     Open Access  
Sustainable Technologies, Systems & Policies     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
TECHNE - Journal of Technology for Architecture and Environment     Open Access   (Followers: 9)
Tecnogestión     Open Access  
Territorio della Ricerca su Insediamenti e Ambiente. Rivista internazionale di cultura urbanistica     Open Access  
The Historic Environment : Policy & Practice     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
The International Journal on Media Management     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Theoretical Ecology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Theoretical Ecology Series     Full-text available via subscription  
Toxicologic Pathology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20)
Toxicological & Environmental Chemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Toxicological Sciences     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 11)
Toxicology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 18)
Toxicology and Applied Pharmacology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 20)
Toxicology and Industrial Health     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Toxicology in Vitro     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 12)
Toxicology Letters     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 13)
Toxicology Mechanisms and Methods     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 10)
Toxicon     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 4)
Toxin Reviews     Hybrid Journal  
Trace Metals and other Contaminants in the Environment     Full-text available via subscription  
Trace Metals in the Environment     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Transactions on Environment and Electrical Engineering     Open Access  
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22)
Transylvanian Review of Systematical and Ecological Research     Open Access  
Trends in Ecology & Evolution     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 232)
Trends in Environmental Analytical Chemistry     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
Trends in Pharmacological Sciences     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 24)
Tropicultura     Open Access  
UD y la Geomática     Open Access  
Universidad y Ciencia     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
Urban Studies     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 55)
Veredas do Direito : Direito Ambiental e Desenvolvimento Sustentável     Open Access  
VertigO - la revue électronique en sciences de l’environnement     Open Access   (Followers: 2)
Villanova Environmental Law Journal     Open Access  
Waste Management & Research     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Water Environment Research     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 42)
Water International     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 15)
Water Security     Hybrid Journal  
Water, Air, & Soil Pollution     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22)
Water, Air, & Soil Pollution : Focus     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 8)
Waterlines     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Weather and Forecasting     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 20)
Weather, Climate, and Society     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 7)
Web Ecology     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Wetlands     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 22)
Wilderness & Environmental Medicine     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 2)
Wildlife Australia     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews - Climate Change     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 14)
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews : Energy and Environment     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
William & Mary Environmental Law and Policy Review     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
World Environment     Open Access   (Followers: 1)
World Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 6)
World Journal of Environmental Engineering     Open Access   (Followers: 3)
Worldviews: Global Religions, Culture, and Ecology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 5)
Zoology and Ecology     Hybrid Journal   (Followers: 3)
气候与环境研究     Full-text available via subscription   (Followers: 1)

  First | 1 2 3 4     

Journal Cover Journal of Applied Volcanology
  [8 followers]  Follow
  This is an Open Access Journal Open Access journal
   ISSN (Online) 2191-5040
   Published by SpringerOpen Homepage  [226 journals]
  • Evaluating the impacts of volcanic eruptions using RiskScape

    • Abstract: RiskScape is a free multi-hazard risk assessment software programme jointly developed by GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand. RiskScape has a modular structure, with hazard layers, assets, and loss functions prepared separately. While RiskScape was originally developed for New Zealand, given suitable hazard and exposed asset information, RiskScape can be run anywhere in the world. Volcanic hazards are among the many hazards considered by RiskScape. We first present RiskScape’s framework for all hazards, and then describe in more detail the five volcanic hazards – tephra deposition, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, lahars, and edifice construction/excavation. We describe how loss functions were selected and developed. We use a scenario example to illustrate not only how RiskScape’s volcanic module works but also how RiskScape can be used to compare across natural hazards.
      PubDate: 2017-12-02
  • Lava flow hazard prediction and monitoring with UAS: a case study from the
           2014–2015 Pāhoa lava flow crisis, Hawai‘i

    • Abstract: Accurately predicting lava flow path behavior is critical for active crisis management operations. The advance and emplacement of pāhoehoe flows modifies and inverts pre-existing topography, prompting the need for rapid and accurate updates to the topographic models used to forecast flow paths. The evolution and velocity of pāhoehoe flows are dependent on macro and micro topography, the slope of the descent path, effusion rate, and rheology. During the 2014–2015 Pāhoa crisis on the island of Hawai‘i, we used a low-altitude unmanned aerial system (UAS) to quickly and repeatedly image the active front of a slowly advancing pāhoehoe lava flow. This imagery was used to generate a series of 1 m resolution bare-earth digital elevation models (DEMs) and associated paths of steepest descent over the study area. The spatial resolution and timeliness of these UAS-derived models are an improvement over the existing topographic data used by managers during the crisis. Results from a stepwise resampling experiment suggest that the optimum DEM resolution for generating accurate pāhoehoe flow paths through lowland tropical forest environments is between 1 and 3 m. Our updated models show that future flows in this area will likely be deflected by these newly emplaced flows, possibly threatening communities not directly impacted by the original 2014–2015 lava flow. We demonstrate the value of deploying UAS during a dynamic volcanic crisis and suggest that this technology can fill critical monitoring gaps for Kīlauea and other active volcanoes worldwide.
      PubDate: 2017-11-02
  • Improving volcanic ash fragility functions through laboratory studies:
           example of surface transportation networks

    • Abstract: Surface transportation networks are critical infrastructure that are frequently affected by volcanic ash fall. Disruption to surface transportation from volcanic ash is often complex with the severity of impacts influenced by a vast array of parameters including, among others, ash properties such as particle size and deposit thickness, meteorological conditions, pavement characteristics, and mitigation actions. Fragility functions are used in volcanic risk assessments to express the conditional probability that an impact or loss state will be reached or exceeded for a given hazard intensity. Most existing fragility functions for volcanic ash adopt ash thickness as the sole hazard intensity metric that determines thresholds for functional loss. However, the selection of appropriate hazard intensity metrics has been highlighted as a crucial factor for fragility function development and recent empirical evidence suggests that ash thickness is not always the most appropriate metric. We review thresholds of functional loss for existing published surface transportation (i.e. road rail, maritime and airport) fragility functions that use ash thickness. We then refine these existing functions through the application of results from a series of recent laboratory experiments, which investigate the impacts of volcanic ash on surface transportation. We also establish new fragility thresholds and functions, which applies ash-settling rate as a hazard intensity metric. The relative importance of alternative hazard intensity metrics to surface transportation disruption is assessed with a suggested approach to account for these in existing fragility functions. Our work demonstrates the importance of considering ash-settling rate, in addition to ash thickness, as critical hazard intensity metrics for surface transportation, but highlights that other metrics, especially particle size, are also important for transportation. Empirical datasets, obtained from both post-eruption field studies and additional laboratory experimentation, will provide future opportunities to refine fragility functions. Our findings also justify the need for rapid and active monitoring and modelling of various ash characteristics (i.e. not ash thickness alone) during volcanic eruptions, particularly as potential disruption to surface transportation can occur with only ~ 0.1 mm of ash accumulation.
      PubDate: 2017-10-03
  • Volcanic fatalities database: analysis of volcanic threat with distance
           and victim classification

    • Abstract: Volcanoes can produce far-reaching hazards that extend distances of tens or hundreds of kilometres in large eruptions, or in certain conditions for smaller eruptions. About a tenth of the world’s population lives within the potential footprint of volcanic hazards and lives are regularly lost through volcanic activity: volcanic fatalities were recorded in 18 of the last 20 years. This paper identifies the distance and distribution of fatalities around volcanoes and the activities of the victims at the time of impact, sourced from an extensive search of academic and grey literature, including media and official reports. We update and expand a volcano fatality database to include all data from 1500 AD to 2017. This database contains 635 records of 278,368 fatalities. Each record contains information on the number of fatalities, fatal cause, incident date and the fatality location in terms of distance from the volcano. Distance data were previously available in just 5% of fatal incidents: these data have been significantly increased to 72% (456/635) of fatal incidents, with fatalities recorded from inside the crater to more than 100 km from the summit. Local residents are the most frequently killed, but tourists, volcanologists and members of the media are also identified as common victims. These latter groups and residents of small islands dominate the proximal fatality record up to 5 km from the volcano. Though normally accounting for small numbers of fatalities, ballistics are the most common cause of fatal incidents at this distance. Pyroclastic density currents are the dominant fatal cause at 5 to 15 km. Lahars, tsunami and tephra dominate the record after about 15 km. The new location data are used to characterise volcanic threat with distance, as a function of eruption size and hazard type, and to understand how certain activities increase exposure and the likelihood of death. These findings support assessment of volcanic threat, population exposure and vulnerabilities related to occupation or activity.
      PubDate: 2017-09-20
  • Framework for developing volcanic fragility and vulnerability functions
           for critical infrastructure

    • Abstract: Volcanic risk assessment using probabilistic models is increasingly desired for risk management, particularly for loss forecasting, critical infrastructure management, land-use planning and evacuation planning. Over the past decades this has motivated the development of comprehensive probabilistic hazard models. However, volcanic vulnerability models of equivalent sophistication have lagged behind hazard modelling because of the lack of evidence, data and, until recently, minimal demand. There is an increasingly urgent need for development of quantitative volcanic vulnerability models, including vulnerability and fragility functions, which provide robust quantitative relationships between volcanic impact (damage and disruption) and hazard intensity. The functions available to date predominantly quantify tephra fall impacts to buildings, driven by life safety concerns. We present a framework for establishing quantitative relationships between volcanic impact and hazard intensity, specifically through the derivation of vulnerability and fragility functions. We use tephra thickness and impacts to key infrastructure sectors as examples to demonstrate our framework. Our framework incorporates impact data sources, different impact intensity scales, preparation and fitting of data, uncertainty analysis and documentation. The primary data sources are post-eruption impact assessments, supplemented by laboratory experiments and expert judgment, with the latter drawing upon a wealth of semi-quantitative and qualitative studies. Different data processing and function fitting techniques can be used to derive functions; however, due to the small datasets currently available, simplified approaches are discussed. We stress that documentation of data processing, assumptions and limitations is the most important aspect of function derivation; documentation provides transparency and allows others to update functions more easily. Following our standardised approach, a volcanic risk scientist can derive a fragility or vulnerability function, which then can be easily compared to existing functions and updated as new data become available. To demonstrate how to apply our framework, we derive fragility and vulnerability functions for discrete tephra fall impacts to electricity supply, water supply, wastewater and transport networks. These functions present the probability of an infrastructure site or network component equalling or exceeding one of four impact states as a function of tephra thickness.
      PubDate: 2017-09-18
  • Rational volcanic hazard forecasts and the use of volcanic alert levels

    • Abstract: Volcanologists make hazard forecasts in order to contribute to volcanic risk assessments and decision-making, in areas where volcanic phenomena have the potential to impact societal assets. Present-day forecasts related to the potential occurrence of an eruption mostly take the form of alert levels, that are established by volcano scientists with the aim of communicating the state of a volcano and its possible short-term evolution. Here I analyse current alert level systems and their role in decision-making processes. I show that the use of such systems implies predictive capabilities not supported by corresponding levels of confidence in the knowledge of the volcano. Their use also implies an assumption of volcano scientist responsibility for decisions that goes beyond the expertise of the scientist, and which, in most countries, is not granted by a corresponding societal mandate. A rational volcanic hazard forecast system accepts instead the uncertain nature of volcanic processes and the consequent limited predictive capabilities; forecasts expressed as probabilities, or better as probability distributions, reflect a rational attitude by scientists and assure clear roles that reflect both expertise and societal mandate to any group involved in the management of a volcanic crisis. Exceptions where the use of volcanic alert levels may lead to efficient management are also discussed.
      PubDate: 2017-08-31
  • The iron-catalysed surface reactivity and health-pertinent physical
           characteristics of explosive volcanic ash from Mt. Etna, Italy

    • Abstract: Mount Etna is Europe’s largest and most active volcano. In recent years, it has displayed enhanced explosive activity, causing concern amongst local inhabitants who frequently have to live with, and clean up, substantial ashfall. Basaltic volcanic ash is generally considered unlikely to be a respiratory health hazard due to its often coarse nature (with few particles sub-10 μm diameter) and lack of crystalline silica. However, a previous study by the authors showed the capability of basaltic ash to generate the hydroxyl radical, a highly-reactive species which may cause cell damage. That study investigated a single sample of Etna ash, amongst others, with data giving an early indication that the Etnean ash may be uniquely reactive. In this study, we analyse a suite of Etnean samples from recent and historical eruptions. Deposits indicate that Etna’s past history was much more explosive than current activity, with frequent sub-plinian to plinian events. Given the recent increase in explosivity of Etna, the potential hazard of similarly, or more-explosive, eruptions should be assessed. A suite of physicochemical analyses were conducted which showed recent ash, from 2001 and 2002 explosive phases, to be of similar composition to the historical deposits (trachy-basaltic) but rather coarser (< 2.4 c.v.% sub-10 μm material and <11.5 c.v.% sub-10 μm material, respectively), but the potential for post-depositional fragmentation by wind and vehicles should not be ignored. One recent sample contained a moderate number of fibre-like particles, but all other samples were typical of fine-grained ash (blocky, angular with electrostatic or chemical aggregation of finer particles on larger ones). The surface reactivity analyses (Fenton chemistry, on samples from recent eruptions only) showed that Etnean ash is more reactive in hydroxyl radical generation than other basaltic ash, and samples of intermediate composition. This high reactivity suggests that Etnean ash could promote oxidative stress in exposed cells. Therefore, further investigation of the potential toxicity, through cellular tests, is now warranted in order to provide a comprehensive health hazard assessment.
      PubDate: 2017-08-17
  • Effusive crises at Piton de la Fournaise 2014–2015: a review of a
           multi-national response model

    • Abstract: Many active European volcanoes and volcano observatories are island-based and located far from their administrative “mainland”. Consequently, Governments have developed multisite approaches, in which monitoring is performed by a network of individuals distributed across several national research centers. At a transnational level, multinational networks are also progressively emerging. Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion Island, France) is one such example. Piton de la Fournaise is one of the most active volcanoes of the World, and is located at the greatest distance from its “mainland” than any other vulnerable “overseas” site, the observatory being 9365 km from its governing body in Paris. Effusive risk is high, so that a well-coordinated and rapid response involving near-real time delivery of trusted, validated and operational product for hazard assessment is critical. Here we review how near-real time assessments of lava flow propagation were developed using rapid provision, and update, of key source terms through a dynamic and open integration of near-real time remote sensing, modeling and measurement capabilities on both the national and international level. The multi-national system evolved during the five effusive crises of 2014–2015, and is now mature for Piton de la Fournaise. This review allows us to identify strong and weak points in an extended observatory system, and demonstrates that enhanced multi-national integration can have fundamental implications in scientific hazard assessment and response during an on-going effusive crisis.
      PubDate: 2017-06-12
  • Preservation of thin tephra

    • Abstract: The preservation of thin (<300 mm thick) tephra falls was investigated at four sites in Papua New Guinea (PNG), Alaska and Washington, USA. Measurements of the variations in the thickness of: (i) Tibito Tephra 150 km downwind from the source, Long Island (PNG) erupted mid-seventeenth century; (ii) St Helens W tephra (erupted 1479–80 A.D.) on the slopes of the adjacent Mt. Rainier in Washington State; (iii) Novarupta (1912) tephra preserved on Kodiak Island (Alaska, USA); and (iv) an experimentally placed tephra at a site near Mt. Hagen (PNG) allow tentative conclusions to be drawn about the relative importance to tephra preservation of slope gradients, vegetation cover and soil faunal activity. Results for the experimental tephra suggest that compaction occurs rapidly post-deposition and that estimates of tephra thickness and bulk density need to indicate how long after deposition thickness measurements were made. These studies show that erosional reworking of thin tephra is not rapid even on steeper slopes in high rainfall environments. In Papua New Guinea a 350-year old tephra is rarely present under forest but is well-preserved under alpine grasslands. On Mt. Rainier 500-year old tephra is readily preserved under forest but absent under grasslands as a result of gopher activity. Despite the poor relationship between tephra thickness and slope steepness the thickness of thin tephras is highly variable. On Kodiak Island thickness variability across a few metres is similar to that observed across the whole northeast of the island. The measured variability reported here indicates large sample sizes are necessary to adequately estimate the mean thickness of these thin tephra. These results have implications for the preparation of isopach maps, estimation of tephra volumes and elaboration of the potential consequences of tephra falls.
      PubDate: 2017-06-05
  • Benchmarking computational fluid dynamics models of lava flow simulation
           for hazard assessment, forecasting, and risk management

    • Abstract: Numerical simulations of lava flow emplacement are valuable for assessing lava flow hazards, forecasting active flows, designing flow mitigation measures, interpreting past eruptions, and understanding the controls on lava flow behavior. Existing lava flow models vary in simplifying assumptions, physics, dimensionality, and the degree to which they have been validated against analytical solutions, experiments, and natural observations. In order to assess existing models and guide the development of new codes, we conduct a benchmarking study of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for lava flow emplacement, including VolcFlow, OpenFOAM, FLOW-3D, COMSOL, and MOLASSES. We model viscous, cooling, and solidifying flows over horizontal planes, sloping surfaces, and into topographic obstacles. We compare model results to physical observations made during well-controlled analogue and molten basalt experiments, and to analytical theory when available. Overall, the models accurately simulate viscous flow with some variability in flow thickness where flows intersect obstacles. OpenFOAM, COMSOL, and FLOW-3D can each reproduce experimental measurements of cooling viscous flows, and OpenFOAM and FLOW-3D simulations with temperature-dependent rheology match results from molten basalt experiments. We assess the goodness-of-fit of the simulation results and the computational cost. Our results guide the selection of numerical simulation codes for different applications, including inferring emplacement conditions of past lava flows, modeling the temporal evolution of ongoing flows during eruption, and probabilistic assessment of lava flow hazard prior to eruption. Finally, we outline potential experiments and desired key observational data from future flows that would extend existing benchmarking data sets.
      PubDate: 2017-05-31
  • Probabilistic hazard modelling of rain-triggered lahars

    • Abstract: Probabilistic quantification of lahar hazard is an important component of lahar risk assessment and mitigation. Here we propose a new approach to probabilistic lahar hazard assessment through coupling a lahar susceptibility model with a shallow-layer lahar flow model. Initial lahar volumes and their probabilities are quantified using the lahar susceptibility model which establishes a relationship between the volume of mobilised sediment and exceedance probabilities from rainfall intensity-frequency-duration curves. Rainfall-triggered lahar hazard zones can then be delineated probabilistically by using the mobilised volumes as an input into lahar flow models. While the applicability of this model is limited to rain-triggered lahars, this approach is able to reduce the reliance on historic and empirical estimates of lahar hazard and creates an opportunity for the generation of purely quantitative probabilistic lahar hazard maps. The new approach is demonstrated through the generation of probabilistic hazard maps for lahars originating from the Mangatoetoenui Glacier, Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand.
      PubDate: 2017-05-26
  • Report on potential sampling biases in the LaMEVE database of global

    • Abstract: We investigate whether the disproportionate contribution of individual volcanoes in the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruption database (LaMEVE) potentially compromises the treatment of LaMEVE as a globally representative database of volcanic activity. We find that 41% of volcanoes which contribute at least one eruption to LaMEVE only contribute one eruption (10% of all eruptions), and the six most prolific volcanoes contribute 11% of eruptions. However, there is no systematic bias with respect to the eruption magnitude or date for volcanoes contributing one eruption. Also, no bias can be discerned for when the smallest or largest eruption at a volcano occurs in its eruptive record. Half of the volcanoes contributing one or more eruptions to the LaMEVE database had their first eruption prior to 36.4 ka. We find LaMEVE is representative – while there are well-known issues of eruption under-reporting, LaMEVE is not overly biased by the activity of a few volcanoes.
      PubDate: 2017-05-25
  • Damage from lava flows: insights from the 2014–2015 eruption of
           Fogo, Cape Verde

    • Abstract: Fast-moving lava flows during the 2014–2015 eruption of Fogo volcano in Cape Verde engulfed 75% (n = 260) of buildings within three villages in the Chã das Caldeiras area, as well as 25% of cultivable agricultural land, water storage facilities and the only road into the area. The eruption had a catastrophic impact for the close-knit communities of Chã, destroying much of their property, land and livelihoods. Volcanic risk assessment typically assumes that any object - be it a building, infrastructure or agriculture - in the path of a lava flow will be completely destroyed. Vulnerability or fragility functions for areas impacted by lava flows are thus binary: no damage in the absence of lava and complete destruction in the presence of lava. A pre-eruption field assessment of the vulnerability of buildings, infrastructure and agriculture on Fogo to the range of volcanic hazards was carried out in 2010. Many of the areas assessed were subsequently impacted by the 2014–2015 eruption and, shortly after the eruption ended, we carried out a post-eruption field assessment of the damage caused by the lava flows. In this paper, we present our findings from the damage assessment in the context of building and infrastructural vulnerability to lava flows. We found that a binary vulnerability function for lava flow impact was appropriate for most combinations of lava flow hazard and asset characteristics but that building and infrastructure type, and the flow thickness, affected the level of impact. Drawing on these observations, we have considered potential strategies for reducing physical vulnerability to lava flow impact, with a focus on buildings housing critical infrastructure. Damage assessments for lava flows are rare, and the findings and analysis presented here are important for understanding future hazard and reconstruction on Fogo and elsewhere.
      PubDate: 2017-03-20
  • Forecasting volcanic ash deposition using HYSPLIT

    • Abstract: A major source of error in forecasting where airborne volcanic ash will travel and land is the wind pattern above and around the volcano. GNS Science, in conjunction with MetService, is seeking to move its routine ash forecasts from using the ASHFALL program, which cannot allow for horizontal variations in the wind pattern, to HYSPLIT, which uses a full 4-D atmospheric model. This has required some extensions to the standard version of the HYSPLIT program, both to get appropriate source terms and to handle the fall velocities of ash particles larger than 100 microns. Application of the modified HYSPLIT to ash from the Te Maari eruption of 6 August 2012 from Tongariro volcano gives results similar to the observed ash distribution. However, it was also apparent that the high precision of these results could be misleading in actual forecasting situations, and there needs to be ways in which the likely errors in atmospheric model winds can be incorporated into ash models, to show all the areas in which there is a significant likelihood of deposited ash with each particular volcanic eruption model.
      PubDate: 2017-03-04
  • Phreatic eruptions at crater lakes: occurrence statistics and
           probabilistic hazard forecast

    • Abstract: Phreatic eruptions, although posing a serious threat to people in crater proximity, are often underestimated and have been comparatively understudied. The detailed eruption catalogue for Ruapehu Volcano (New Zealand) provides an exceptional opportunity to study the statistics of recurring phreatic explosions at a crater lake volcano. We performed a statistical analysis on this phreatic eruption database, which suggests that phreatic events at Ruapehu do not follow a Poisson process. Instead they tend to cluster, which is possibly linked to an increased heat flow during periods of a more shallow-seated magma column. Larger explosions are more likely to follow shortly after smaller events, as opposed to longer periods of quiescence. The absolute probability for a phreatic explosion to occur at Ruapehu within the next month is about 10%, when averaging over the last 70 years of recording. However, the frequency of phreatic explosions is significantly higher than the background level in years prior to magmatic episodes. Combining clast ejection simulations with a Bayesian event tree tool (PyBetVH) we perform a probabilistic assessment of the hazard due to ballistic ejecta in the summit area of Ruapehu, which is frequently visited by hikers. Resulting hazard maps show that the absolute probability for the summit to be affected by ballistics within the next month is up to 6%. The hazard is especially high on the northern lakeshore, where there is a mountain refuge. Our results contribute to the local hazard assessment as well as the general perception of hazards due to steam-driven explosions.
      PubDate: 2017-02-03
  • Household preparedness motivation in lahar hazard zones: assessing the
           adoption of preparedness behaviors among laypeople and response
           professionals in communities downstream from Mount Baker and Glacier Peak
           (USA) volcanoes

    • Abstract: As the number of people living at risk from volcanic hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest grows, more detailed studies of household preparedness in at-risk communities are needed to develop effective mitigation, response, and recovery plans. This study examines two aspects of preparedness behavior motivation in the Skagit Valley (WA), which is at risk from Mount Baker and Glacier Peak lahars. First, we examine the influence of perceived response-efficacy, protective response costs, self-efficacy, and ascription of responsibility on preparedness. Results indicate few respondents believe high perceived protective response costs, low perceived response-efficacy, or low perceived protection responsibility prevent them from adopting frequently recommended preparedness behaviors. Correlations with preparedness suggest perceived self-efficacy and ascription of responsibility play a more dominant role in determining preparedness behaviors, albeit a less readily recognized role. Second, we investigate how participation in hazard management at a professional level (e.g., working as a first responder or leader within the local city government, hospitals, school districts, Red Cross, or utilities, transportation, or water companies) influences knowledge, risk perception, and household preparedness. Results show that professional participation minimally influences household preparedness, but successfully improves perceived self-efficacy, confidence in officials, and information seeking behavior. Given these results, we argue (1) for inclusion of ascription of responsibility variables in studies of preparedness behavior motivation and (2) that specific types of participation in response-related activities (e.g., public, professional, specific training programs) may affect household preparedness differently, whereas self-efficacy and confidence in officials may improve regardless of participation type because of increased interaction with emergency officials.
      PubDate: 2017-02-01
  • Estimating building vulnerability to volcanic ash fall for insurance and
           other purposes

    • Abstract: Volcanic ash falls are one of the most widespread and frequent volcanic hazards, and are produced by all explosive volcanic eruptions. Ash falls are arguably the most disruptive volcanic hazard because of their ability to affect large areas and to impact a wide range of assets, even at relatively small thicknesses. From an insurance perspective, the most valuable insured assets are buildings. Ash fall vulnerability curves or functions, which relate the magnitude of ash fall to likely damage, are the most developed for buildings, although there have been important recent advances for agriculture and infrastructure. In this paper, we focus on existing vulnerability functions developed for volcanic ash fall impact on buildings, and apply them to a hypothetical building portfolio impacted by a modern-day Tambora 1815 eruption scenario. We compare and contrast the different developed functions and discuss some of the issues surrounding estimation of potential building damage following a volcanic eruption. We found substantial variability in the different vulnerability estimates, which contribute to large uncertainties when estimating potential building damage and loss. Given the lack of detailed and published studies of building damage resulting from ash fall this is not surprising, although it also appears to be the case for other natural hazards for which there are far more empirical damage data. Notwithstanding the potential limitations of some empirical data in constraining vulnerability functions, efforts are required to improve our estimates of building damage under ash fall loading through the collection of damage data, experimental testing and perhaps theoretical failure analysis. For insurance purposes, the current building typologies provided for use with vulnerability functions are too detailed to map to the relatively limited information on building types that is typically available to insurers. Thus, efforts to provide vulnerability functions that can be used where only limited information is available regarding building types would also be valuable, both for insurers and for at-risk areas that have not been subject to detailed building vulnerability surveys.
      PubDate: 2017-01-26
  • A model to assess tephra clean-up requirements in urban environments

    • Abstract: Tephra falls can cause a range of impacts to communities by disrupting, contaminating and damaging buildings and infrastructure systems, as well as posing a potential health hazard. Coordinated clean-up operations minimise the impacts of tephra on social and economic activities. However, global experience suggests clean-up operations are one of the most challenging aspects of responding to and recovering from tephra falls in urban environments. Here, we present a method for modelling coordinated municipal-led (town/district level authorities) tephra clean-up operations to support pre-event response and recovery planning. The model estimates the volume of tephra to be removed, clean-up duration, and direct costs. The underpinning component of the model is a scalable clean-up response framework, which identifies and progressively includes more urban surfaces (e.g., roofs, and roads) requiring clean-up with increasing tephra thickness. To demonstrate model applicability, we present four clean-up scenarios for the city of Auckland, New Zealand: 1 mm and 10 mm distal tephra fall across the city, along with two local ‘wet’ eruption scenarios (low and high volume tephra deposition) from within the Auckland Volcanic Field. Depending on the modelled scenario, outputs suggest that coordinated clean-up operations in Auckland could require the removal of tens of thousands to millions of cubic metres of tephra. The cost of these operations are estimated to be NZ$0.6–1.1 million (US$0.4–0.7 million) for the 1 mm distal tephra scenario and NZ$13.4–25.6 million (US$9–17 million) for the 10 mm distal tephra scenario. Estimated clean-up costs of local eruptions range from tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars. All eruption scenarios indicate clean-up operations lasting weeks to months, but clean-up in some areas impacted by local eruptions could last for years. The model outputs are consistent with documented historic tephra clean-up operations. Although we use Auckland as a proof-of-concept example, the method may be adapted for any city exposed to a tephra hazard.
      PubDate: 2017-01-06
  • Global recording rates for large eruptions

    • Abstract: A non-parametric statistical approach is used to assess the global recording rate for large (M4+) stratovolcano eruptions in a modern database, LaMEVE (v3.1). This approach imposes minimal structure on the shape of the recording rate through time. We find that recording rates have declined rapidly, going backwards in time. Prior to the year 1600 they are below 50 %, and prior to 1100 they are below 20 %. Even in the recent past, e.g. the 1800s, they are likely to be less than 100 %. The assessment for very large (M5+) eruptions is more uncertain, due to the scarcity of events.
      PubDate: 2016-10-10
  • TephraProb: a Matlab package for probabilistic hazard assessments of
           tephra fallout

    • Abstract: TephraProb is a toolbox of Matlab functions designed to produce scenario–based probabilistic hazard assessments for ground tephra accumulation based on the Tephra2 model. The toolbox includes a series of graphical user interfaces that collect, analyze and pre–process input data, create distributions of eruption source parameters based on a wide range of probabilistic eruption scenarios, run Tephra2 using the generated input scenarios and provide results as exceedence probability maps, probabilistic isomass maps and hazard curves. We illustrate the functionality of TephraProb using the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) and selected eruptions of La Fossa volcano (Vulcano Island, Italy). The range of eruption styles captured by these two events highlights the potential of TephraProb as an operative tool when rapid hazard assessments are required during volcanic crises.
      PubDate: 2016-08-24
School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences
Heriot-Watt University
Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK
Tel: +00 44 (0)131 4513762
Fax: +00 44 (0)131 4513327
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